Agricultural Information: Perspective, Issues and Initiatives

Mad Nasir Shamsudin Aziz Arshad Abdul Shukor Juraimi

Che Fauziah Ishak

Presented at Agricultural Scientific Information Workshop 15 16 June 2011

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My own experience

Back in 1994 when I developed a Malaysian Agricultural Sector Analysis (MASA) Model for EPU, data collection was a tedious effort.. Now, after 17 years, in the process of developing a Malaysian Agricultural Policy Analysis (MAgPA) Model for EPU, data collection is still a tedious effort..

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What are the issues?

Information retrieval
Data is not coordinated/centralised/no central depository system??? Non-cited material is not captured in bibliographic data base (e.g. scopus, Thompson ISI) Awareness of the availability data base (AGRIS DATABASE for agri science & technology in Malaysia, Malaysian Thesis on-line, MASTICLink, MyUniNet portal) Whos who directory of agricultural experts Wheres where! experts, database, information Whats what status of research, innovation & findings in agri discipline Some data is not updated Quality of data collection may effects policy implications

Who, Where & What

Data integrity

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Outline of presentation

Value proposition of agri information Agricultural scenario & challenges Agricultural research activities Available shared database Required information Issues/challenges Recommended Initiatives

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Value Proposition

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Value proposition at the macro level:

Malaysia needs to transition into KI-economy successfully

Phases of Economic Transformation

1960s-70s
Early Industrialisation

1980s-90s
Newly-Industrialized Economy

2000s
Globalized and Diversified Economy

Factor-Driven Economy Labor Intensive

Investment-Driven Economy Capital Intensive

Innovation-Driven Economy Knowledge Intensive

Knowledge and innovation will determine our competitiveness and success in the global arena.
New Economic Model Our development policies must be prepared to face these new realities.

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Value proposition at the macro level:

The role of agriculture in the New Economic Model (NEM)
Strategic Reform Initiative Outcome

Coherent Big push to boost transformation and growth

1. Re-energising the private sector 2. Developing quality workforce and reducing dependency on foreign labour 3. Creating a competitive domestic economy 4. Strengthening of the public sector 5. Transparent and market-friendly affirmative action 6. Building knowledge base and infrastructure 7. Enhancing sources of growth 8. Ensuring sustainability of growth Agriculture is relevant in most of the initiatives.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MALAYSIA IN 2020 Market led economy Well-governed Regionally Integrated Entrepreneurship Innovative

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Source: MITI 7

Value proposition in agri sector..

Information system is crucial in agricultural growth => improving information, increasing agricultural productivity Information flow in agri sector can be divided into 3 categories: To farmers education, extension, market information To agri officers pre and in-service training To scientists the feed forward

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Value proposition in agri sector..

No. 1. Stakeholders Consumers

Value Proposition Improved access to commodities Enjoy reasonable and affordable prices Faster services Better crop returns Optimize benefit from various available incentives Better crop planning when to plant, harvest, etc. Obtain accurate, reliable and more comprehensive information Be able to focus on information that are relevant to food security and increasing farmers income Be able to obtain comprehensive information including the ones from reluctant sources Cost saving for the Government in terms of reduction in duplicated activities Be able to plan for production level to meet customer demand and to plan for procurement activities Be able to expand existing markets or moved into new markets with the availability of market intelligence Be able to network with other players in the industry Be able to identify sources of commodities Be able to obtain accurate worldwide database on data/research findings/patent Common standards and methodologies (AGRIS)

2.

Farmers

3.

Policy Makers

4. 5.

Manufacturers Marketers

6.

Researchers

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Agricultural Scenario

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Global Landscape
Global population and income increase are driving demand for key agricultural produce.
Historical trends and estimates indicate that despite the increase in global demand for agriculture, production growth rate has been declining, higher energy prices, increasing demand from emerging economies, underinvestment in agriculture and policy favoring export crop rather than food.
Global population estimates 2010-2020 Billion
Growth in global food consumption for 1997-2030 kcal/capita/day
Growth in global agricultural production 1989-2030 Percent

Different Food Items Price Index (%)

With decreasing
production growth, developing countries will be more dependant on agricultural imports.

350.0

220.0 200.0 180.0

300.0

250.0 160.0 200.0 140.0 150.0 120.0 100.0 Jul-06 Food Jan-07 Meat Jul-07 Dairy Jan-08 Jul-08 Cereals Jan-09 Oils Jul-09 Sugar

Inelasticity of supply and

demand causes large fluctuation in prices.
Source: World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 Report; Food and Agriculture Organisation, United Nations

100.0 Jan-06

World Price Index Movements for Different Food Sub-groups (Jan 2006-Nov 2009)

11 With KnowledgeFAO (2009a), World Food Situation: @ http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesInde We Serve Source:

Food Price Index(%)

Agriculture is back on the agenda, but return to agriculture remains low World wide, agriculture is back on the agenda due to the changing dynamics of supply and demand

Supply sector constraints are imminent

o o o o

Climatic change Environmental concern and the contribution of agriculture to the problem Depleting resource: land, water, fisheries, forestry, fossil fuel Agricultural resources NOW competes food vs energy uses

Demand sector is booming

o o o o

Income increase that led to changing lifestyle and diet Population increase The retail revolution Growing concern of food security and safety

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Agriculture is back on the agenda, but return to agriculture remains low

Malaysia - returns to agriculture remains low, with the exception of large scale enterprises, palm oil and agro-based industries

Supply sector constraints limit growth

Small scale farms The strong pull of the industrial and services sector Limited government and private sector investment Resource constraints and lack of appropriate technology All the above lead to LOW productivity

Demand sector is bright

Income increase Population increase The retail revolution Growing concern of food security and safety

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THE QUESTION: Why return to agriculture is low when demand is bright?

Unlike industrial product, agriculture commodity/produce is susceptible to nature. Only through technological advancement, productivity can be sustained and hence return/income. BUT, technology is not available on all fronts in the Malaysian farms.

Agricultural productivity has not shown improvement after the 1960s Green Revolution

Limited government expenditure on agricultural infrastructures (% of RMK9 expenditure agriculture (4.8), manufacturing (8.1), services (87.1)) Limited investment in R & D in agriculture - % of Agri. GDP: Malaysia (1.58%), Australia (3.38%), Japan (3.62%), Korea (1.73%), USA (2.65%) Neglect on agriculture after the industrialisation programme since 1980s Food is plenty and cheap in the world market until 2008, prices are reversed due to cumulative effect of supply constraints (eg energy dependence in production, instability in production) Limited technological advancement on all fronts

Agricultural productivity holds the key to growth

Proven in the developed countries, productivity leads to growth In Thailand and Vietnam, productivity may not be high, but cost efficiency and better marketing improves competitive edge

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To summarise..

Agriculture sector has not progress as fast as the nonagriculture sector. Food consumption has been growing at a faster rate than production. Food security situation, especially in developing economies, is vulnerable (the food crisis, as it has become known) to changes in supply and demand factors. R&D and innovation is fundamental to economic growth and developments. Prerequisite for development => information!

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Agricultural R&D

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The scope of agriculture has changed from production oriented to supply-value chain oriented. The performance depends on the socio-economic and political environment as well as agro-climatic and ecological environment.

Planning Control

Management
Implementation

Analysis

Input & Services Sector

Production System

Post Harvest

Processing

Marketing

Consumer Satisfaction

Productivity & Competitiveness Information

Involves from plough to plate, farm to table, or cradle to grave. Hence R&D activities must cover the whole supply chain. Do we know the missing link of R&D in the supply chain?
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UPMs role in spearheading Malaysian agriculture

UPM has the institutional capacity to churn out knowledge, technology and innovation to advance agriculture through research and professional services.

Research
Research are current addressing issues such as production, processing, biotechnology, green technology, sustainable resource management, portharvest losses, food safety and traceability Received high research grants in agriculture Strong in research publication in the international arena

Professional service
Training, extension and outreach programmes

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Technology Platforms: Contribution of UPM

10th Malaysia Plan will emphasis on the following technology platforms:

Biotechnology
o

Protected environment, Biological control of plant pest & diseases, Novel feed resource from wastes, Biofertilizer Developing nano biocarrier particles and emulsions for biosensors Use of nano biocarrier particles for the delivery and controlled release of fertilisers and pesticides Development of biochar with nanopores for use as biofertilisers and effluent treatment Use of carbon nanotubes for enzyme immobilisation in waste-to-wealth projects using agricultural residues Bioinformatics, Precision agriculture The supercritical CO2 platform technology will spurs the development of techniques in the extraction of natural oils, colour and bioactive compounds, fractionation into functional ingredients, and particle formation-encapsulation using green technology/chemistry. Materials recovery and biorefineray for agriculture and solid waste management Sustainable aquaculture Biofilter production from agricultural wastes

Nanotechnology
o o

o o

ICT
o

Green Technology
o

o o o

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But R&D expenditure is still low

R&D expenditure in Malaysia is relatively low compared to more developing & developed economies has undermined its key role for economic growth. As a result, agricultural productivity growth was marginal and is too low to meet the present challenges.
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3.38 3.62 3.04 2.65 1.73 1.58 0.41

0.34

0.13

A us tralia

R &D S pending in Ag riculture (% ag riculture value added),2000

Indones ia

J apan

K orea

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Malays ia

P hilippines

S outh A fric a

United S tates

Vietnam
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Public spending on agriculture in agri-based & transforming economies is less compared to urbanised economies.

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Available shared database

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Available shared database.. At international level

ISNAR AGRIS AGRICOLA

ScienceDirect

BIOSIS ENVIRONLINE

COFFEELINE APINMAP IFIS WATERNET etc

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Available shared database..

National Agriculture Information Center/Library

Contentonline Search/Browse by Subject

Plants and Crops Animals and livestock Food and Nutrition Natural Resources and Environment Research and Technology Education and Outreach Rural and Community Development Marketing and Trade Laws and Regulations

eg. Details in Plants and Crops Genetics, Breeding and Biotechnology Industrial Crops Field crops Fruits, Vegetables and Herbs Forestry Ornamental, Landscape and Turf Climate Change Pests, Diseases and Weeds

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Available shared database..

AGRIS International system for Agricultural Science and Technology

A global public domain Database with 2.6 million structured bibliographical records on agricultural science and technology Maintained by FAO, and its content is provided by more than 150 participating institutions from 65 countries.

Agricola
Index to materials in agriculture and related fields, produced by the National Agricultural Library (NAL)

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Agriculture search engines..

AgNIC
Guide to quality agricultural information on the Internet as selected by the National Agricultural Library, Land-Grant Universities and other institutions

AgEcon Search
A full text library of agricultural and applied economics scholarly literature

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Agriculture search engines..

Agrisurf
The worlds largest searchable agricultural WWW index. All the sites in AgriSurf are hand picked by agricultural experts

Scirus
Produced by Elsevier/ Science Direct. Search can be customized to Agriculture and Biological Sciences. Results include web resources and/or articles from Science Direct which can be printed in full-text.

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Available shared database.. At national level

PALMOILIS Fisheries Statistics (DoF website)-statistics for fish landings (capture

fisheries)

MASTIClink (science and

technology (S&T) management information) MOSTI
website

AGRIS DATABASE (all aspects of

agriculture including forestry, husbandry science, fisheries, food and environmental sciences. It covers publications written in Malay or English languages published in Malaysia)

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Required Information

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Required information crop science

Worldwide database for information on published patent FAO SDMX status industrial commodity statistics database Common standards and methodologies (AGRIS) Scientific names of plants Common names and generic names of pesticides

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Required information fishery

Scientific details of commonly cultured fish species for aquaculture development Species lists of invasive exotic species Species from outside that is damaging to local fishery & aquaculture industry.

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Required information fishery

Biodiversity and Conservation (for sustainable fisheries & aquaculture development) Genetic Improvement of broodstocks (best

selection of parents for best progenies, disease resistent, hardy and tolerant of

) Sustainable aquaculture practice (non-polluted, less change of water, free from chemicals) Post-harvest technology (minimize lost through handling and processing, attractive packaging, quality enhancement on fresh products)
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Required Information - Economic R&D

1

Farmers Information System

Socio-economic profile

Policy & Incentive

Using incentives to influence targeted factors of production

Market Intelligence System

Profiling

Incentives, Financing And Private Investment

Demand and supply matching

Market Intelligence

NAP
Food Security Improve Farmers Income

Develop agropreneurs capabilities

Downstream Development

Develop smart and skilled farmers and farm workers

Human Resource Development

Research, Transferring and applying R&D Development & findings and Tech. Transfer technology in farms

Continuous Devt.

Players
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Applications of R&D
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Basic Framework of Food Security

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http://www.worldfoodscience.org/cms/?pid=1004751

Food security, nutrition, health, environment & economic aspects

With http://apjcn.nhri.org.tw/server/APJCN/Volume18/vol18.4/Finished/24_1634_633Knowledge We Serve

637.pdf

Issues/Challenges

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Economic R&D Agri. Econ is complex & uncertain

2800

Palm oil prices

2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

PCPO

Any astronomer can predict just where every star will be at half past eleven tonight; he can make no such prediction about his daughter.
James T. Adams

Inherent characteristics of agriculture(price instability & volatility, time lag, inelastic demand & supply)

Is price forecast reliable?

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Economic R&D

The quality of data remains a constraint in obtaining high quality empirical results.
Consistency & reliability of data from different sources Changes in the methodology of data compilation and collection

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Economic R&D

Data

Errors in variables

Could be due to errors in recording, compiling, and manipulating

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Economic R&D

Data

Errors in variables

Observed variables may not be good measures of the underlying economic theory
e.g. how do farmers form expectations? Nave, rational, adaptive, quasi-rational

Use of proxy variables Data revision Changes in scope of a data series

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Economic R&D

Are economic variables random?

In long-term, commodity markets are subject to shocks (e.g. haze, flood, fuel prices, etc) In medium-term, tend to be more related to national economic condition or business cycle In short-term, shocks from financial factors (e.g. hedging, speculation, exchange rates)

Price fluctuation, which vary frequently and extensively, have made modelling and forecasting a difficult task.
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Way Forward: Recommended Initiatives

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Conceptual framework of agri-information Access & link to centralised depository system I dont have one, but.

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Economic R&D agri-intelligence system

Marketing & research activities need to be supported by the integrated data gathered from the industry. Tools need to be provided so that data such as supply and demand, market demand, price information, stockpile information, balance of trade, food traceability, standardisation, etc will be made available to support planning, marketing & research activities.
Market Intelligence System Capabilities Key Specific Outcomes

Supply & Production

Price Information Stockpile Level

Planned production Demand and supply

matching Prevention of food crisis Food balance of trade Higher and stable income Better access to markets Strengthen market competitiveness Food safety Price stability

Import & Export

On-line Trade Portal

Market Demand

Standardization, Quality and Grading

Food Traceability

Agriculture Environmental Information

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Transfer of Technology Management System

All agriculture related R&D materials need to be consolidated and managed at one place at a stage where the findings are ready to be transferred to the farmers (knowledge transfer program). R&D applications to support extension services should be put in place to ensure technology is effectively transferred to farm.
Transfer of Technology Management System Capabilities Key Specific Outcomes

Increase production yield Increase mechanisation

Search Query Request Findings Repository Training Advisory Services Planning Monitoring Advisory Services Implementation

and automation in farms Increase farmers technical knowledge Increase rate of technology transfer Improve problem resolution Improve monitoring of farmers application of technology

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Agri-intelligence System to help farmers

Each stage to include tools and content

Record Keeping & Analysis

Analysis

Weather Reports

Instructional Content (Video, Audio, Text)

Buyer Directories

Interactive Guides for Commodity Best Practices Lot Info (e.g. Soil, Water, Infrastructure)

Marketing Production

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Price Reports

Planning

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Thank You

Terima Kasih

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