|j)j[33 [|]|9.

9%_2010
|Aj][9.[ ]|]]]|j[|;[@
@jA|fj|] 2010 [@_][j]9|
[[| 2008 |j]/];|}_
]][[{_j|]||[)j
|j|]]|@@;!j"{ .}j
[|][/@|]

[)|
@@)j,[;,)|[];@|
| [|{|(|];y
|Q/Q))
.
!"#$%&'()*+,-&'.)/012345$%6789*)
:;1%~2%,-6789*)<=>4.7%?1#345@A:2 BCDE
]/5 ]|_]jj[[[
|])]]|]][)^)[{
[|][]]|_|/|||][
j|_j]];||@
,)(j|{{/];|||_{j]@,
_;|]@,|{]{][ ]
{UECI{@||j{[{||[|
)]@,,,70%|/{]
[_{j)/5 ]@,]||1%~2%
]]]|[||j. ][
!";| [. #$%|[&)'|]|()}]*
1
A+,-.]/[0).]|12011 ~2015
7%||jj]0.5 ^),[|[ ||]/[
]|][][[]]]|j.][||_ ||
,,/[|{|/]||]],{][|/)|]||/]
{||;|),[|y{j|)| /,,j
/]|j, )[[/|](||;j,
][[][]jfj[,[;!),
[j ]{ |j[@,. ]|]|l
_2 ^),
!"2FGHIJKHLM123,-67&'NOPQRS$%&
'(TUV,-67WXNYZ[\<]^_` abcdWXNe$f<]^
gh
[j]j]@|)jp |{|]
]@,]|@(|.)|@@
_]|)@]|} [)||
|jgj)jj|"{j }[/@
|]|)|]|)])
]][]]||@)_ ]|{]
,!]|||)|,]|][@]| ]]
|{,j;|,]|][|["[,])]][@
]| /]|{,|),|,||/j]]|]|]|;
||]@(=||jj@(]]|(
@|@
'][j|]||]]|[
@]{)||]j, ]|{[.]|]|
]|@]||l ]|{.][
[||fj]|[]@])|jj@j)j]||])
@;|||j, .]@]|]{||]l@
];||/0.77 j./0.47l/
/|{[@]j@]),|j][@[|
|2010 /1.03 []jj2015 / 0.87 []j|;j
16% .][(||,;||),|j]
][pj])|,|,,]|),)]]|)
|/j|j]@]) {/[|]|_|2010 ~
2015 |]|4.3%j@_]]_0.5 ^), ||
j]|;|2010 71.1%j2015 67.9%j3.2 ^), |{|
2
@#@|!(|@_$.%]j|_j]!|;|
|2010 19.2%j]2015 22.4%!j]3.2 ^),!,j]||2010
80.8%!j 77.6%" (|@@|)j]|,j]
11.4%|13.1%" ']2011 }]')!;]j(|@j]|]
}!}|]||!(|@j]|||)"
/!$.%]!]])]@,]|j||!)
j[|[[|j]|]!}][j]|{j
])||)" |]#[}]]])j||)jj,"
)QET[[@[|]})|,{@I
]QQFj]p]j)JJjIj=jjj]I{|
|(j]$|p||/|J|]@[|]|j|$y
!j|)[@Q/Q)jp" $.%]j
@|);|j]{||j!|;2015 j_|]38
[!jj|]63%!]{jj|g))[@" ]!)
40 [[|_) j,[#j")[|j![j)
[]][!|)[@!;|}@|]|)" ]!|
@));![j)Q/Q[jp" |*j@|
},,[[j||]/Q/Qjp(jj),
j]$.%]j]j_&,j]@_'(j
j,)#)])mj(j)]|[}fj|
]j)jp(j))]|" ]{![j|)[@
Q/Q)jp"
9.!|,[|_)(" |]|3[,|]||!
[|,_|_]|" [|,_|2001 2.3 [!]|)
2011 4.4 [!]|)2.1 [!]|1 ]" $.%][!],
j]||!!|,,_]|(]!"]|,|!]
,]#$[|,]|j" |;$ .% ][|,|]|
4%!2015 |,_||2010 4.3 []|)5.3 [!%]1 [" |
;2015 [&"j,_|)2.8 [!,j,88%!
]',&"|]|(|,][!/&")*+,
)" |[|@[!)|-.,/),]0!/[1]!(234
5,/#67]8],/|9}:],/!;^,/<,)_0]!
/|[)" )|=>|5,/)_?])!]@ABA<,])|[
|" {!,/)])1,/[1[)|C!$.%][_|
|2 [" $.%][![|,],)!||_|!|;2015 [
3
|!3.2 [|,!j2010 ]|41%!])1 [![||,]_]
,!]!/]|[||61.4%!|,)["
9![|)_],!|]]!j|" 10
[]|]" 2000 [|_ 245 ]7!
2011 )1268 ]7!]|417%" |;[|_]||]|
!2015 |)2290 ]7!|]|18.5%" ][,]|
|{[}*]]jj[)#),|)(.],]|3[
)]|(@j)]|j|([],
|],]|" [)_j]|![|)_
]],!],)!|[||(|{L^C!_]
)!|]]!j|"
9!{]]#;|]/[],;" $ .% ][![}|_j
2010 ]|43%!2015 |)14.63 " ]!}|_|]
$%13.3%j7.5%!],]12.6%j6.5%!]
13%j 5.3%" (|@__j)j]|!| 2010
19.2%j]2015 22.4%!j]3.2 ^)," )$.%/!(|@
}|j][j]!,]jj!j]|mjj|"{"
/!;|]/[|_),;!]g]_}j]
]!]}|@],j!)]_|@"
9![][/||j]}" ]!/|
##j#],]j|_)[" ,]|j!|)|)
,||!{_j|j" [|||[!]|]
[||![|j||Q/Q!]||"]|,|"
|yjA|]!||;/{];40 ~60 !j]j(|
[][||]|]}!|[jA)[|_0.1 " |,
])A|!;(,j!|;|[|j]j]g|!|y
{j|},,]j[" '][||{j!|/
[||j]}!,|y#|[[]{]||j
[]j)"
)Q[(|;|j|j]]@J]]J
]I{)[I{J@[]]|,[@
j||7I{,J|[N||#I{,g\@I|@[
jp|
!/$@|%" [||/{@
]|j][[y!),{#|,#)#j[
4
](,,@#],,@{],]j@!@@[
" |j[)[@@2012 4 |]

![|/
,|,@_]j])26%!]|{])
[][][|,]_2.2%)j[[j" ']|/,|,
@_|][|,]_^|]!26%jj,|!j{|
*[(,,@]_#)_[!],|,]_])"
]!y]|!|{[/||]j#|,_],]" ]
]|_|])!}j[ L^C]|_]|5 ~7 ]!
_|,1.5 ~2 ]"
]]![#H[{[{jj[!][@,|
]|!)|[|]j!|A]|j])j[@]])j!]
)j#&L^C'#|,|@!)jj||[j[
@,|]||" j[@@|}!],jj@)
!|!]{!|,##j|@]jj[||]|"
y)|jj[|,#]||]]||]j"
|j!|,j[@],)|j[[" ]!|,_{
)]|]@,]|||(]!j")#3|[@@|
,!{_;!)|,]j[!]!|,|)|][!]
{!_{)|j!/],])&']{(!!@
@_{|j'"
{||![)|]@]}!{||((,,
@j[$@[%|;!]([[|;[!_$
]j[,"#|j##@#|@|/%|
@|[#j]"[" [][@]*[@
(,!!]||[[(.|,y]q]![
{|]||]][!|]][,![]||#|j)@
100%([@]_[]!_!j]|,]/[
@|("
|[|]j|A]|]]"j|!}|A,]@
@g}[!(||A30%]],|[,j)][!
||j|A|;_]|]!j,j[@])_])((]|!|
A[|[]"{||!]{|A]|j|j]]"" j")
5
| hiip*cpw.scnaic.,ovpuhlicindcx.clm$ UhamaAdminisiraiion BcporiBcvcalsihaiihcIniicd
SiaicsHas26% olVorlds1cchnicallyBccovcrahlcConvcniionalUilBcsourccs%"
j]|@;!]|]jpj j"))j][{j[|
,)|,jp}|@/pj
)QT]g}[j@p|Q%(|75 =jJ
g]j]@]]j}[]@||Tp|j
|
/5 ;|}_|])} ])
[[|]([)|][,!j)(|[{
;_|j[||][j|{l)]{[
]]|_|/|j,)
];||@,)(j| {,!]10
]{]{,!50 ]{,
!_30 {([,!)[]]||]|/@_
) /]];|||_{j]@,_;|]
@,|{]{][ ]{/5 |
{j]@|j)]{ UECI{@|j
{[{||[) /[||
_)[@jj_j[[|]|j;_]|
{@j,[[|j)
]]/5 ]@{||\;||_ ']
!]@]{|{{"#|$/|{]%])(/|
@|/|&|]'|)@@_]_|]|[_,]
(||j|,@|(,,@ |,|@,|j
|]],,]),@{*}(||[]^j['
]+][|,(,,@(,{|,|)j[|,,
]][|"@)|)jA||] ]']-"
@{{],f]]))./),"[|Q/
QjAQ/Q],j@|||{)] /
(j[[[0|j,[1,]2,3)4]]j[||]
)jp|5]|67[ ]2012 8{/9:j_j|
-|)j[]] j,j);</)[]=
,]|] }@/_Q/Q(,'>|j?
@(9AB|CDEF]G )@[{H||\
I'_j@!/@{Jj][
)Q/UPEC75 =j#[j)@({[]j[j)9||;
@j]j]Tgy@)][)|p|]]]|
6
]@j|
{]KUPEC])y}]/5 ])A_{]
]{UPEC|])|| UPEC]);|12 ^j[||.
])||)|L;]}[||)|}M[
|[fj| |])[j[9:||N][,!|
)_j[)|.[fj|]OP(|Q ])[[
]||]]j]fjgjQ[|M[@||,@,()]
|[g 9]j]q]|]||]]R[j||9
],/[ST)_U|]V)|)[]=|Wyq]
UPECj[XY{[["[,{Z=||
@)"[[[0 (|}][j[[[0j),
]]| UPEC^(j[3|]\][[|)_
|j[ /5 ,[[0|),,[)_2015 []
|9: A/(]|)][|,]|]^9:_|25 )30 ^
[`{])/[|\[|M[aY||fj|])_
j[|)|])[](,] ][|||]||]][O
))|j UPEC_[b]]{|,,,,c[[|j]
|[ de{1000 f)]||]]{g]]]|,h,
|{,])]|)j]1100 ~1170 fij]||]]{
]|k100 ~170 f]O) ]]||]]{])j850
fj|j| UPECj[] ]{/5 UPEC_3000
f)_|jj[)lm||)]]||]]{850 ~1170
flm|no|)]])]320 f
{||jp||jj,[}|,]
/[[|{|,[]|,]O]
{|,[)]|,]O]q [r|])|,]O|
]@)|A]|sj[|,]Ot]j
]|Au[)[,]O])j,]Oj[H[']|,]O
j||vj)]|,]O]= |]@][|,]
]@\gg]|,|w]ggj,|@
{ ]{|,]/]@|(
)Q[[|j|]_H{7@|){7[
@y@[|2008 =Jj,[[|)j_[[j]
[|[@|{7@|
[|,]|]{];]x|]|,]}x
7
||_])!j[y)|](|[!j[y;]
]_" ][|[,|_| V1I)|||]" ]
UPEC)_#( UECI,#UECI|||[|,])A|]!]
UECI,,]|]( UECI,,]||_!{[
UECI,[,])){|)" j!(]|,,,!,]
]|" ]{!,]]j UECI|( UECI,;|{;
" ]!]UPEC[[|/,,])A}!(| UPEC]
]|!)UPEC]||]_]Q"
]]!()A}jj,][j}!]|){|^]*
]]||];]j,][" ](!1973 ~1994 !,]]
]\!][}{}p) UPEC[|,]|" \;{
|[|,|!]j]|" |j!|,,[,]|
/|!,][" ]!},]|Q/Q[!(*
|]#|[#y)|/,|" 1994 ~2008 ]|,|
||||},!]2008 |jy/|
|,][|||!)|]!j,][;,"
/!j,[#;,j}]j,][)}" ](!
2011 ]jpj[||,y][130 |!),]]|
15 ~20|" /{[jj|[|,][)j}"
)Q'(())j*j|j+,j@]@W-
.)FJJj/0y[1j23{4W-567;[JJ8{
9j:;(j<;)=CU
2
>?@\[\A||%&@
]!|{],]|;9!/),{)_]|!2010 )
150 |(|j+BP][@;2011,!|)2010 [!),|,][
]_321 |!,{][]_1431 |!|,][]_{[j]9
|,@[" ]!|{||/{],[!|j;[(,,
@!||#|,#)#j[" |j[@]j![
]|,@g,[!]__]]_70%{([)
]_!|#){|j[(,]_60%" [|,|
|j!)|@![))]Q,@][j!j]||
]]24%" /|_],]!)[(,,@)]#)|/,
[|jAj!j[[A[|],@|{|j!]_" ]
[|,)_|2000 20 |))2010 _100 |!|)_
|2000 122 ]7\]2011 1800 ]7!)[)
_34%!]jy[/|{/|]]|!2012 4 |!
8
]||[2 ))j"
y]!{|A|(}&L^C' y]|
j|[,]|]||[" /,j[ L^C]||]|]]j![}
|*|L^C![|j[!(|A#[#[#[[#H[!,|
])!]2011 3 ||A|[|{/!L^Cj)[[||;)
[!|AL^C!_])24.9%!]]||2011 3 |14 |10.2
))j))2012 2 |16.03 ))j" [#[#[[
|H[L^C,]|],!|]20%~40%!]]||30%~40%"
.([#/#H[|jL^C(![&']/|j_
['" ]{!,|)j^|_9q]L^Cy!y
|!{y,|||]]|"
/![_]!/|,||j!
]||#|@jA]|" |j2012 gj
;![!,]|[jf&CCC1'jjAj
j#|]30%{!|jjA`!jA_1 4"
]!]|[f]j2012 4 |)j;CU
2
|j|]
]Q!l|[CU
2
|j_|1000 [HVh&|453 KVh'"
]Q(,jCU
2
|j]Q!]j_1 2" !
[]|j[/[{|j_!|]j[j[|["
|j![}]|[}]]]]|j,|@!]{!
j[[||j["
)QBjj]QQFj@C@jI|]j|D]E75
=FG|[%)|jj_[H{Ij_JK
|j][||[])_!/20 !])
||7000 ~9000 ,/)|,|_!]],,,/,{[
" |)@,|]|!]|]||g[!j]|]
]" !|@,][]@,_40%!][
{|j1 4" ]j]50 !}|
||/@;||{|j)[|" |_[!j
10 ]]|g|@{" j]_/,!|[|H["
[|H[/j!j[|]||]#[|]]j!,[|H[j],
80%|70%" ],;[!|]#H[#Q!|j
[!j;![" /fj|g!|@|
|@_!])]@{|!lj##||
_" ,[;|jj[]])#]|'|&
9
j[L^C]|_[y5 ~7 ]!|,y_1.5 ]'!@|]!|
|#|/#@_9!"|y))][{|
,"|_" ]{']"|j){jj
]CU
2
|j&(*,|j!{|j{[`'!
/5 ,]}|j|{j"
)QLgjjM_N7@OPj[QRSTQ@UVWXY{
j=j)Z[J@STQ@\]jJ^)_`jg Y75 =
ab|cd;)ef1J(ab_ghiOP[CCS OPjNJ{
kl;)emn
!][q]][|/|@_|y" [#H
[#|{|/@,]|[!]{"[@y
Q/Q]||!][_I[y" ](![|g
{|j[!@gy!@]|[" ']
,,@|/!(##|j||!{,[|j]|[]|
|[|!@|/[/@|j_)#_)[jj"
(![|H[{]|@|[|j[]!"]_][|
y@|],@|/(," j||!]"
])(][!,j(||]|" |[g$.%|{[
)!@]|]j|)(" !)^[)
@|/]{[jp!|([!"|{]|{|)
!](j]|/jA!,|@!j]|@[j/"
[][@y(,)!)[)|/{!))
]]j|[|"
]]!|{]!@,|_]|!@[|,;!|
@jj|)" )2011 |!|119 ^[];|@],]
;|" "],;||,j_jj)|@" '](!j
{/!|@]@y|,," |j BPj!2010 |,
|33.6%!j29.6%!23.8%!||]|]j!]|@!
||[##j)##|j|[{[]|!]1.8%!j!
j10 0.6%])2 ]" 2010 |[)_14%" 2011 !|
@_]|15.5%!1990 {/gj!|1.3%!)
_3.3%" |j[[fj|j!2011 |@|]]!
2110 !j2009 ]|32%!](|@g5 ^[]]
[#[#j[#|H[" |{|@}||!]jA
&jA|j'#|[[)" j(j!|@j|!|
0 1
;/]j|@|[|[]|@j]_]"
@#|@@|/" |j![[l)]
!l)][,!]###[#CCS#||
#9.||j@#|@|/" ]{![@#|@)
])]){)"
]!/5 !]@|]jg|(|/"|,
[" ]!j[|,#j)]@&|,'[,"
|/!||/" {j||\]![y|/
jj]|#]|j!)jA]#)_#/{[}!
][[,"|{]" ]!CCS |[|},g
[[||/!|{){[!|*CCS ){]#jA
])[#,j|[!),)[#]j"[;_["
)Q[[@oj)]p_]<|qr|jj[{[
[@JstjjET|]jQQ9Y[|]@L)>{uv
@wxTy$7jz{|]p
![|@]||{|(|" ]@]j;
{|{j]|!]||j||[|!IEA| UPEC|]
||@;,!|)||,){|,[|(UPEC
),[jp(.]@||]j;|,!|))[],
!][|@j)&IEI']j|^|[[
[|]@;,!j]|;,& APEC'#|,;j
&Eurosiai'#[|@&IEA'#],@;,&ULAIE'#|,j;[;,&UPEC'#
[[;j&I^SI';,{!([(,||!|IEA![
@]&EIA'|j(|(,|!@}|j]|)
_"
]]!j|[|@||/|" jj[)
|||]][[,}!][j][!]|
||][]|]" [[j_;,j;])[]
|" [|]|@][|]j)!|@j,]|[|
|" [[|j[|](!(j[|#][y[|j|)!
][y]{"
/!]@||]jp![[@fj
[|[,![jjI[||["
(*$@[%],![[]($|]|]%!
[[_($|])A]],%($ ]fjj[
1 1
%![((j]j[!][(j
[|!|Aj[fj,[(/!j|]$[|j,[
]}%#$|)||%[![jj}|j[|
#[#jj]"
[|5[![j[];!|@#
[[|#|,j]@_|j]Aj,"
!"12677{55zj;UVx567WX<;
[677QpNz7
]@@[]20 ]30 |]j[|,[|,@[|
[|20 ]50 |}{[#{]#]j#]||]][j][||
,)A[|,@j]]{,{j$|,jjj][%][{/!/A
]!|{[@@_|{|!@@[j|[
)]#jj" |j|*A[#Aj[@@]!]|(.@
@]"j)(|]j,[},"
|[@[!2006 |j]|#],$||]||,[|(2006
8 |!j")%]$|&)|,)[)!])j")|,$)'[|%
|(" 2012 {/!{@[j_[!(*#]$|[|)
]"#][[)|[|(||*$|+,_)j|
||*g|,[YPI)[|(H-|v|]v);!q
]!|j]v);!.!)//[v)|)j5 ~10 !|,|
||H[|,Aj|01j51%||!/[[|||49%(2
3$||/|4! |$ 23[A|||pj])
51%%!]]5$pj])%!9[@(][.|v)@j6
.]|[]7pj!|!)v)|@[.|![
8)]v[[j]"
|]}@[!}#]@[jjj9:|];<[
;" ]@[j|(@)|]|,#]]j)
j]" @);<,^_]},!},;)[
|!},,j=>!|]j/?||"|" j@#_Z#{
,#||-AB-Cj[|]D/!([,!jE,
{F|G|||!{_|H,[" ]!IJ|,|
@j[!|[j|)j(!]))@!jj
)|KL|@MN" ]@@)|][|j[!|]
OjPj@|}QR[||;j)ST(]||[;|
[]UVj[]|,]])([}]|]|,j}
2 1
^[](|]@)])][
|jj@[|j[jj}Wjjj||,@][,][
|,@__13%j|@][,][@__
30% ]{jj[_|_[)j")3|
[|XYjj||]g'j")|[, 1962 | 1967 )
|,)])][ /|{Z[j[,)|/j)j|
|j[_
.
|#_,-]67Z<67]WX\] ]89\]

|]{/[;|\|;|]]{]|@]])A{]
|@],]]|@][]j| [|)
A{j[/]]j ]]]{]/^]3[
,_@]|| lj[|[][|
{||]](|]__9|]]][ ]{_{/[@)A
{]`! j /[|_)|@@_9j|
,/]|[{|_j] .[)pj|a]
@]]j]| |,| ) {{)
j|bc|]|]_ . ][ |[ ;|}
_[{],j{| j[|]]],]]
|[@j]])@,]]]|[j||@_
fj]|)||],d])))/[@j|[@j)
,@, @,{]]|]]|,]|}
]j@ef_)&]]|@;,||
&) .{j]@_j],[!@,]
] ]jj]@]],]|]],)/j]@],
@_j]][[@],|j]|@_;|;_
|)[;[j]|_j]_j]]]
j]@],@_;||\{;gj]@],]
|jj]@],_)&] ])(|@])@
_j] @_j]][j]|@_]
j]j||,_ ]{])(|@]_{[j)j]@
_ [{],}j]h,]|])(|@]_
3 1
M[{|[]
|j_()q)qj][@@jj[
@|j|j)jIj#@|/q)qj|]|Q
V
[j]]|[*/]i},],|]j@
{jj[;[[jj |j} _])
},]j[!_jj]j,] {|
{]^] },]j[j,]_! 8|$
2015 [j,_38 [ j|23%j];2015 },]j[j
_8.8 [j]_,,j!__3 [ |)[},]
j[j![j!j]_70%j!_4.3 [_[
2015 j_11.3% (},]j[3 [j!
{|]jA{_3 [j[,fjj]
},]j[j,_[|/_]|[[|jy|
)j|]yjj .,j[=]|])}j][j
|;@pj (|[},]j[j,]_]!
{j][,j[j)[,j[fj]||]]
{j|[/j|,j[}j]|jy,[
j|)]|]j)|)j ,|;j],j[j)_
|)j)]},j[j)jA|]]||]
,j[|_[ j,,j[)]@]) CIPjjj[
||]|[ )L^C![},]j[@
]])j.j)[j[L^Cyjj [L^C!]
j|j[L^Cy];|[ j[L^Cy
jj|A]||A]) L^C|]| ]||
L^C]|i|) [|j[g[L^C,]}
},]j[|Au[|j@))(,|R|]])
;j[j,];[|];j[jj)}||[|f]
,,!|])},]j[L^C!_ _
j]|||]j/ ]|||]j/jA|{(,
]|||]j/;|jTv|{|I|.
||},j[|]([{|]jj(|]j}
},,]|)[v|[[ ]{||
|]j/j]},]j[]j]Aj[k
}/
4 1
EJ[jb[[
/|,j[@|(!]|["]||,|3[
" !)j||[|["[,}(,)!|j;(
)" _)|,]]Q" '][);_|]|[
",[]##]Q![[!]|)j;_#;#]|
,]]Q||_{;" [,,!,
,,j|,#|_"!|,|)" )
|"#j"#)")2 ,3 ],__)|]Q!j,"
.|["||,,|)]|" '][j'|
y!|,|j!)]j|j![),#(,#
!]#!L^C![j[||]" ;"})|
[|#,[|/{#|/j|!'|){&(*#
L^C#C^C',|,!]|#;j";#||,[j"#]
]|}" _)@|[|/" ']{
["#.||[#[#@[|/jAj|]!j!
"|/{" ![|)|[|"g[|,|/[!)
{|[]|[!|!/jj|/Q"
[JE@)[jJJW-
'][j,L^Cg'|j[!/L^C]j]
_,]y[" ![,)j))|y|"
!][j[||(,)" ![j[
)]|[|)|/|j!|@)]|[(/!|)q]
[|j|)]*|/j(.|]|j_|])
)[(j][([j(j[q]_;![,|j(
j,|_@!jfj[[|" "}
[)|jA][" '][+|.|,j;
]!j||[]" ,)j;[|]|!])" ]]!
)|][]!{;j)[]" |{[]|!,
Q/Q!][],j#][[[|[][(,)![/
]/|" ![_)|y)|!_)|]|]
j[_j)![|]|][j(!_)]
j(]},]j[fjj_]#q]|#]
|j[;jj)!|]|j"
T|@[j]JJ)]]
![@]|||!||#||j#]_j
5 1
]|#||]])j|];#|,{;" [@
]j!]_[|||]" !;j{|"
)|][_#,]pj|,]{;" ![|,_]&|
|,]#[,||]_])'|[|@90 (!_|
|]|" [pj|,]||,]jj(,||!,)|]|"
|{[|,|]![]|,|]#])]_|!-
|][|@]![,#j,|][#_|]#|
]_]]{;!){/(j[|@]]j[|;||,
y]|[,|,]|" !)[[,#j,],;|]/[[
![|,];]),]j!{j[,y,
]]])j;|" .{|[_{];" []
j]|!]^]![/|,[!|IEA
j[{]!]())]j!{|,!!j||]j
]]!|)],]!))]|/{" |j[
@y]|j])]/pj,!;)][
[}][[|}]]&}]]#|;]]#]]#;;
),L^Cj]]'|!{{]|!|}j#!,]
}#j][_{];])j" |/[|#[/]
#)j|||[;{;" ;[;{;;##
][]|||]j" /!)]]|@#|j_
[[|/]Q!/]#(]j;[[|/,
![]/[]" }#,#}#|;[j
]{;" $j%#$j}% [jj|)A|j!j|[||
]|j[||,j]{;!{,]#j]j
_]|" [$.%||j]|)|(j;*$.%][
,]#,;#,,!]#j[!)|[j_]](|,
||]]]]][![]]|#]|#)|" }#_(,#},]#
,]||[j)|j" ),j[]j!|j[
]|])" },]j[]j;g!{{]j]
Aj[j_2 ](,|}j[]!{{]jAj[
j_|(j[|[,,)]y!j|)|]|[j
,|j[|j_" )|,)_;{"
#Mo,-N67[
$.%]j#)|)]!][_{]
|!@@[|[]||[||" ][]@@
6 1
]|j||" |{[j#|,#/]|[]|![@]
|,|[|j" !;j{|" '|[|j]|
(" [|#[|yj[j|]j![)))
)j]_},,]j[,[j" !;],I}
{[j#]j[|j]|(!|[|#[|j]},,
)!|;|]j]||)" .j,}]j]!
'|];,{j]" ![,])A|[|j!}_j]|
|![$)j|,y]%][!{]j!|}]j]
j,10 !)|];)[|[y" [{/j!{[||9]{|
|;|)$)j|,y]%!]j[||,y]|[|,!]!]
j];}]]}]|[" ]]|yj"
][,|@j];!@]!j_)"
2011 12 |27 |![j;)&j]|.2011/3033 _'!I}#I
|j[)]|)j|]j!|||{jA)j]]
jj$y(l]% ]]" $.% ][!)]I]|j
!|yj!$.%/],|y"
|$%67]l-|Xj|&'Z]jk,-N
t|
]![;{_)|j#I[)|!]
]@];]!IEA]]]@]]j!{_)
)j#[#[{#Q[]][(!]]|]j[" }|]/
]IEA;||[||!|]]j]!]{][
_)|,|" |})j]@#j#@|/&(
CCS |/'" ]![;|j)][|@;,|![
;)/UECI[|@&IEA'![;][
,@;,|;)[!j]]@]jj"
|1@$%jrs]lj=-Xjjk,-@
W
[|;[&]{['@,||]|{
,]!]][q][&(*'#)#jq]
[#fjj#Ajfj,)#)@@'!]|[{j|
jQfj&(*|,,]#j]!]j]#@@j,!
[j|}^]{,'!)[|/j!]{!I[
jA][" ]![]fj[j
[!][|Aj[[fj,[" {[{q
7 1
]![A[#Aj[,[)A||fj]`|!]j
(jAj[#fj,{]|/[" ][|g
[!j,@@g}#g'|j[!j||j
|)[@|!)A||]|;Q/Q'|@@jA"
|/X$%67e$]l-|X)|d]Q]|$%67K
|]q0Ne$V
]!||][!@,[;'_{#])(|@j]|,
|j]]@,]!]@)[A{_)j[]!]]@@[j
!|j||||))@)|/!]|y|_#]@]
|!A[!j]@)[!)||/]|[
!_|[[(]!|][![|@\{;]!]{
|,|(;|[j]![|)
[[)|,|]!_|,]
y],|[|,]j|}|[" /!j]|j!|
j[|[," {j(!][[[j!]j;@]
|q]!)[#j[|!)||]]},!
'_[)[]|j[]|}|][|(!)_)
,||&(*_,|;j")|j|}|,'!
[|@y]^j,[fj"
|167]Z]l5-X|],xN|k$]j
t
[||@])]!)j],])|/#{
[||/(.(,,@)])]!)[|#j[#|
,#,{#))])|/{]]#(],@)])|/(
@#|@])]!])|)|/|["|/&j]
jA|)_!|/{'#_]jA|@|/#[
]|@)[|/#||/#CCS |/" )
@|/||[[]!]{[|)||/@
)|)!l*@|/||j|]])]@]!]
{jj]@j),!j]'|]][|/!(|@|)/]
,[" ]{![[,C20 j;!;;j$]|/;|]%!
j|g[|I['|j)@)])|/!
]#,||@|_|]q]"
i'|"||3
8 1
ExecutiveSummary
1hanksioihcpolicyol$ Bclormand Upcnin,up%! ovcrihcpasi33 ycarsChinahas
achicvcd an avcra,cannualcconomic,rowih ol9.9%! and sincc2010 hasovcriakcn |apan
iohccomcihcsccond lar,csicconomiccouniryin ihcworld.Howcvcr! Chinahaspaid ahcavy
pricclorihcycarsolrapid cconomic,rowih hoih in icrmsolcxccssivccncr,yrcsourcc
consumpiion and morcrcccnicnvironmcnialprohlcms.In 2010! ioialcncr,yconsumpiion in
Chinasurpasscd Amcricalorihclirsiiimc! makin,Chinaihchi,,csicncr,yconsumcrin ihc
world.1hislaciaiiracicd much aiicniion lromihcinicrnaiionalcommuniiy.
1hclinancialcrisisin 2008 pushcd ihc,lohalcconomyinioapcriod oliranslormaiion and
adjusimcni.Allcouniricshavcpuiio,rcaicllorisioscarch lorncwdcvclopmcnipaiicrnsand
sourccsolcconomic,rowih vi,or.China`scconomywasalso,rcailyimpacicd hyihccrisis! and
Chinacamciorcalizcihaiiiscxpori-oricnicd cconomywhich rclicd hcavilyon cncr,yrcsourccs
wasnolon,crsusiainahlc.Iorihisrcason! ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod

hashccomcihc
crucialiimcin which Chinaand ihcworld willcnicrancwcraolcncr,ycconomicrclorms.
1hcscrclormsmusihcspcciliciocach couniryduciocnormousdillcrcnccscxisiin,in ihcir
cconomicdcvclopmcnilcvcls! indusiryand consumpiion characicrisiics! cncr,yrcsourcc
cndowmcni! ,copoliiicalrclaiionsand socialidcolo,ics.Asan cmcr,in,cconomyand oncolmajor
cn,incsolihc,lohalcconomicrccovcry! Chinaisplayin,an incrcasin,lysi,nilicanirolc.
I.MainConclusions
Canc/as/an1* Theg/aba/ecanamy/sgraw/ng s/aw/yand Ch/na'secanam/cgrawthrate/s
dece/erat/ng.ar/ng the12thF/reYearP/anper/ad! g/aba/energydemand w////ncrease
atanannaa/rateaf1%2% wh//eCh/na'senergydemand w///grawat4.7%! dawn2
percentagepa/ntsframthe11thF/reYearP/anper/ad.
Uvcrihcncxilivcycars! ihc,lohalcconomywillconiinuciisslu,,ish momcnium! allcciin,
9 1
Boih lorihc,lohaliopicand lorihcChinaiopicin ihishook! ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod mcanslromycar2011 io
ycar2015.
hoih dcvclopcd and dcvclopin,counirics.Alihou,h cmcr,in,counirics! includin,Chinaand
oihcrdcvclopin,counirics! scrvcasamajordrivin,lorcclor,lohalcconomic,rowih! ihcy
havcio$ iranslorm and rclorm% ihcold cxporioricnicd orand invcsimcni-drivcn
dcvclopmcnipaiicrn.1hischan,cin ,lohalcconomicsiruciurcwillcxcriprolound inllucnccon
cncr,ydcmand! namclyihcovcrallchan,cin ,lohalcncr,ydcmand and cncr,ymix! and ihc
prospcciihaialar,cporiion ol,lohalcncr,ydcmand would comclromcmcr,in,couniricsand
oihcrdcvclopin,counirics& accouniin,lor70% olincrcascd ,lohaldcmand ovcrihcsamc
pcriod'.Iurin,ihisiimc! alihou,h dcvclopin,couniricswillrcplaccdcvclopcd counirics
rcprcscnicd hyUECImcmhcrsiohccomcihcmajorcncr,yconsumcrs! ihc,rowih raicol
,lohalcncr,ydcmand willonlyhcaround 1%2% ducioihcovcralldownward ircnd in ihc
cconomy.
Asarcsuliolihcimpaciolihc,lohalcconomicdowniurn! China`scconomywill$dccclcraic%
and $iranslorm% durin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod.1hcUuilincolihisPlan hascuiCIP
,rowih raiciar,ciio7%! 0.5 pcrccnia,cpoinislowcrihan ihaiolihc11ih IivcYcarPlan
pcriod.
In icrmsolinvcsimcni! ihcold cconomicdcvclopmcnipaiicrn which rclicd on invcsimcniand
naiionalinccniivcpolicicscannoihcsusiain durin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod.
In icrmsoldomcsiicdcmand! wiih ihcrclormin incomc,rowih mcchanismand disirihuiion
sysicm! Chinahassccn rcsidcniincomcincrcasin,lasi! ihcmiddlc-incomcclasscxpandin,
and consumpiion siruciurcimprovin,.1hcscalcoldomcsiicmarkcihashccn ,rowin,rapidly.
Byconirasi! ovcrscasdcmand willnoiincrcascsi,nilicanilyin ihccomin,ycars.Hany
dcvclopcd couniricshavchccn irappcd inioihcviciouscirclcolsovcrci,n dchicrisis! lra,ilc
hankin,sysicm! wcak dcmand! hi,h uncmploymcniand policyparalysis.Civcn ihcir
coniinucd ,loomycconomicouilook! ihcirdcmand lorChina`scxporiswillplummci.
1hcrclorc! China`sannual,rowih raicolcncr,ydcmand willlall2 pcrccnia,cpoinislromihai
durin,ihc11ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! i.c.io4.7%.
Canc/as/an2* $ Urban/zat/an% and $ Indastr/a//zat/an% w///rema/n the bas/c
character/st/csafCh/na'senergysapp/ys/taat/anwh/ch! /nthecantextaftheweak g/aba/
ecanam/cgrawth! w////mpraredar/ng the12thF/reYearP/anper/ad.Thesapp/yafcaa/
and e/ectr/c/tyw///bemaresecare.
Iirsi! Chinasiilllaccs,rcaichallcn,csioconirolcncr,yconsumpiion in ihccurrcni$middlc
pcriod% olindusirializaiion.Viih ihcaccclcraiion olindusirializaiion! China`scncr,ydcmand
issiillcxpandin,quickly.Encr,yconsumpiion in sccondaryindusirysiillaccounisloralar,c
proporiion olihcioial.Encr,y-inicnsivcindusiricsarcihcmain causcolsoarin,cncr,y
0 2
consumpiion.Alihou,h Chinaisiryin,ioaccclcraicihcindusirializaiion usin,ihcshoricsi
iimcin ihccomin,ycars cncr,yconsumpiion in indusirywillrcmain ihchi,hcsiin ioial
cncr,yconsumpiion.1hcrclorc ihckcyiodccidin,ihcluiurccncr,yconsumpiion ircnd is
whcihcrornoiChinacan achicvcihcchan,clromcncr,y-inicnsivcindusiricsioclcan and
hi,h valuc-addcd indusirics.
Sccond solon,asChinaisundcr,oin,rapid urhanizaiion iiisincviiahlcihaicncr,y
consumpiion willincrcasc.Irhanizaiion mcansaswcllin,populaiion in urhan arcasand ihus
,rowin,dcmand lorhousin, homcapplianccsand moiorvchiclcs which allrcquirclucl
cncr,yconsumpiion.Horcovcr wiih accclcraiin,urhanizaiion pcrcapiiacncr,ydcmand will
skyrockciin lincwiih risin,incomc ihccncr,yconsumpiion mixlorlivin,willshililromlow-
cnd orprimarycncr,y such aslircwood in ruralarcas iohi,h qualiiycncr,y such as
pipclincnaiural,asin ciiics orlromnon-commcrcialcncr,yiocommcrcialcncr,y.
1hcovcrallsiiuaiion olihccncr,ycconomywillimprovcdurin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan
pcriod.AsChina`scconomymovcsiowardsalowcncr,yconsumpiion and clcan cncr,ymodcl
ihccncr,yconsumpiion ,rowih raicwilllall.Viih lurihcrimplcmcniaiion olpolicicsin cncr,y
conscrvaiion cmission rcduciion and cnvironmcnialproicciion ihcproporiion olclcan cncr,y
and hi,h qualiiycncr,yconsumpiion willincrcascand ihccncr,yconsumpiion mixwillhc
lurihcrimprovcd.
Iurin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod ihccconomy`srclianccon cncr,y i.c.cncr,y
consumpiion pcruniiolCIP willhcrcduccd and ihccncr,yconsumpiion clasiiciiy
cocllicicniwilldrop lrom0.77 aiihccnd olihc11ih IivcYcarPlan io0.47 aiihccnd olihc
12ih IivcYcarPlan ihcsamclcvclasihaiaiihccnd ol9ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod.Vhai`s
morc wiih dcclinin,cncr,yconsumpiion ,rowih raic cncr,ycllicicncywillhccnhanccd.
China`scncr,yinicnsiiywilldccrcasclrom1.03 ionsolcoalcquivalcni icc pcricn
ihousand yuan aiihccnd ol2010 io0.87 iccpcricn ihousand yuan in 2015 down 16%.
China`sindusirialdcvclopmcniwillmainlyhcmanilcsicd in ihcconsianiup,radin,and
opiimizaiion olindusirialsiruciurc.Siraic,iccmcr,in,indusiricsusin,clcan cncr,yand low-
carhon icchnolo,icswill,raduallyrcplaccsomcolihccncr,y-inicnsivcand hcavy-polluiin,
oncs.Hcanwhilc cncr,y-inicnsivcindusiricswillalsoimprovcihcircncr,ycllicicncyihrou,h
icchnolo,yinnovaiion and iniiiaiivc.
In ,cncral ihcannual,rowih raicolindusirialcncr,yconsumpiion willlallio4.3% lrom
2011 io2015 0.5 pcrccnia,cpoinislowcrihan ihaiolcncr,yconsumpiion.1hcproporiion ol
indusirialcncr,yconsumpiion isprojccicd iodrop lrom71.1% in 2010 io67.9% in 2015 a
dccrcascol3.2 pcrccnia,cpoinis.Viih ihcdcvclopmcniolrcncwahlcand clcan cncr,y
China`snon-lossilluclpowcr,cncraiion willincrcasclrom19.2% in 2010 io22.4% in
1 2
2015! up 3.2 pcrccnia,cpoinis.1hcproporiion olihcrmalpowcr,cncraiion willdccrcasc
lrom80.8% in 2010 io77.6% in 2015.1hcproporiion olnon-lossilluclconsumpiion and
produciion willriscio11.4% and 13.1% rcspcciivcly.Alihou,h ihcproporiion olnon-lossil
luclsin icrmsolhydropowcr,cncraiion droppcd in 2011 hccauscoldrou,hisin Souih China!
iiwillhcpushcd up a,ain hyincrcascd insiallcd capaciiy.
Iurin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! ihcslow,rowih in ,lohalcncr,ydcmand causchyihc
wcak ,lohalcconomywillmcan ihaiChinaand ihcrcsiolAsia-Pacilicrc,ion willhc
ovcrsupplicd wiih coal.1hiswillhclp cascChina`scoaland ihcrmalpowcrsupplymarkci.1hc
occurrcnccolclcciriciiyshoria,csaiccriain iimcpcriodsand rc,ionswillhcrcduccd.
Canc/as/an3* ar/ng the12thF/reYearP/anper/ad! Ch/na w///facesameser/aas
prab/ems/nthedere/apmentaftheenergy/ndastry.Theseprab/ems/nc/adeserere
cha//engesta caa/be/ng Ch/na'sdepended baseafenergy! a//secar/ty/ssaew///became
mareand marepram/nent! natara/gas/mpartsw///tend ta saar/nthe/ang ran!
/nst/tat/ana/and stractara/prab/ems/ne/ectr/c/tysapp/yw///rema/npranaanced( nan-
fass//energydere/apmentw///st///berestr/cted byd/fferentbatt/eneck factars.
Iirsily! asihcmain cncr,ysourcc! coalislacin,incrcasin,lyscvcrcchallcn,cs.Iurin,ihc
12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! alihou,h ihcproporiion olcoalconsumpiion and supplywilllall!
ihcioialconsumpiion amouniissiillcsiimaicd iosiayashi,h as3.8 hillion ions! accouniin,
lor63% olihcioialcncr,yconsumpiion.1hcrclorc! coalwillmainiain ihcdominanirolc.
Howcvcr! howlon,can ihisannualcoalconsumpiion olncarly4 hillion ionshcsusiain)
Comparcd wiih ihccouniricsrich in coalrcsourccs! such asI.S.and Bussia! ihcinicnsiiyol
China`scoalminin,and dcvclopmcniisioohi,h.1hiswillrcsuliin lasicrcxhausiion olcoal
rcsourccsand China`scoalwillloscihcdominaniposiiion sooncrorlaicr.Horcovcr! lrom
upsircam&supplysidc' iodownsircam& dcmand sidc'! China`scoalindusiryisconlronicd
wiih onclundamcnialchallcn,c* ihccnormousdcmand islromihcEasiwhilccoalrcsourccs
arcmainlyin ihcVcsi.1hishasrcsulicd in lon,-disiancccoaliransporiaiion and ihcrcsuliani
hi,h cosi! morcrailwaycapaciiydcmand and morcand morcscrioushi,hwayjam.1hcrclorc
improvin,coaluiilizaiion cllicicncyissiillkcyioconirollin,ioialcoalconsumpiion &orioial
cncr,yconsumpiion'.1hccoalchcmicalindusiryissiillcxpcricncin,prohlcmslikcwaicr
shoria,csin ihcVcsiand ovcrcapaciiy.1hcdcvclopmcniolcoalindusirymusihchalanccd
hciwccn localcnvironmcnialproicciion and ,lohalwarmin,prcvcniion! ihcsalciysiiuaiion in
coalproduciion rcmains,rim.In conclusion! asihchascolcncr,ysupply! coalindusiryis
lacin,morcscvcrcchallcn,cs.
Sccondly! oilsccuriiyissucis,ciiin,morcpromincni.Asrapid cconomicdcvclopmcnidrivcs
2 2
up incviiahlciransporiaiion dcmand ,rowih! China`soilconsumpiion isconiinuin,io
incrcasc! lrom230 million ionsin 2001 io440 million ionsin 2011! i.c.iihasncarly
douhlcd in adccadc.Iurin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! hi,h iransporiaiion dcmand will
promoicihcconiinucd ,rowih oloildcmand.Howcvcr! sinccihccraollowoilpricchas,onc!
ihc,rowih olChina`soilconsumpiion willslowdown asoilpriccsiaysaiahi,h lcvcl.Iiis
csiimaicd ihaidurin,ihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! oilconsumpiion will,rowhy4%
annually! lrom430 million ionsin 2010 io530 million ionsin 2015! anciincrcascol100
million ions.In 2015! China`sproducioilconsumpiion hymoiorvchiclcswillrcach 280
million ions! accouniin,lorncarly88% olioialoilproduciconsumpiion.1hcrapid cxpansion
olprivaiccarswillconirihuicihcmosiiooilconsumpiion incrcasc! makin,iiviiallyimporiani
iochooscihcri,hiauiomohilcdcvclopmcnipaih lorihcluiurc.Aslordomcsiicrcsourccs!
manyold onshorcliclds! such asIaqin,oillicld in Hcilon,jian,Provincc! Kclamayioillicld
in Xinjian,Provinccand Shcn,lioillicld in Shandon,Provincc! havcalrcadypasscd ihcir
pcak oilproduciion and cnicrcd ihcdcclincpcriod.Chan,qin,oillicld in ShaanxiProvincc
which wasdcvclopcd rclaiivclylaichassccn iisouipuisicadilyincrcasin,.Locaicd in Bohai
Bay! ihcrcislar,cincrcascin ollshorcoilouipui.In ,cncral! dccrcascd ouipuiolold oilliclds
willhcrou,hlyollscihyincrcascd ouipuiolncwoilliclds! kccpin,ihcioialdomcsiiccrudcoil
produciion around 200 hillion ions.1hc,ap hciwccn oildcmand and supplywillconiinucio
widcn durin,ihispcriod.Iiiscsiimaicd ihaiin 2015 China`soilimporiwillrcach 320 million
ions! up 41% lrom2010.Sinccncarlyalldomcsiicoilconsumpiion ,rowih nccdsiohcmcihy
impori! oildcpcndcncyon lorci,n oilwillriscio61.4% and ihcoilsccuriiysiiuaiion will
ihcrclorcworscn.
1hirdly! domcsiicnaiural,asouipuicannoimccidcmand! which makcsiiincviiahlcihai
Chinawillrclyon ,asimporisin ihclon,run.1hcpasidccadcsawasiron,,rowih olChina`s
naiural,asconsumpiion! incrcasin,lrom24.5 Bcmin 2000 io126.8 Bcmin 2011! up
417%.^aiural,asconsumpiion in Chinawillmainiain ihcupward momcniumiorcach 229
Bcmin 2015! wiih an avcra,cannual,rowih raicol18.5%.1hclollowin,laciorsarchchind
ihisrapid ,rowih* urhanizaiion pushcsup naiural,asdcmand lorlivin,and commcrcialusc(
hi,h oilpricclucls,asdcmand in iransporiaiion( ihcdcvclopmcniolclcan cncr,ydrivcsup
,asuscin powcr,cncraiion( ihcimprovcmcniolnaiural,aspolicyhassiimulaicd ,as
dcmand.Alihou,h China`snaiural,asouipuihashccn risin,sicadily! iihaslailcd iomcci
incrcascd domcsiicdcmand and ihc,ap hciwccn dcmand and supplyisconiinuously
widcnin,.In lincwiih ihc,rowin,amouniolL^Cimporis! Chinawillrclyon morc,as
imporisin ihclon,icrm.
Iourihly! insiiiuiionaland siruciuralprohlcmsin clcciriciiysupplyrcmain pronounccd.
3 2
China`sinsiallcd powcr-,cncraiion capaciiywillrcach 1.463 hillion kilowaiihyihcycar
2015! up 43% comparcd lrom2010.Howcvcr! ihcavcra,cannual,rowih raicwilldccrcasc
lrom13.3% durin,ihc11ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod io7.5%! amon,which ihc,rowih raicol
ihcrmalpowcrwilldrop lrom12.6% io6.5%! and hydropowcrlrom13% io5.3%.1hc
proporiion olnon-lossilpowcr,cncraiion willsicadilyincrcasclrom19.2% in 2010 io22.4%
in 2015.Byihccnd olihc12ih IivcYcarPlan pcriod! ihcproporiion olnon-lossilinsiallcd
powcr-,cncraiion capaciiywillhavcriscn rcmarkahly! huiihcrmalpowcr,cncraiion willsiill
hcin adominaniposiiion and coalclcciriciiypriccwillrcmain hi,h.Asiorcncwahlccncr,y!
wind powcrissiillconlronicd wiih morcpromincnisiruciuralprohlcms& acccssin,ioihc
,rid'! P\solarpowcr,cncraiion issiillcconomicallyuncompciiiivc! rcncwahlccncr,y
dcvclopmcniisalsorcsiricicd hyinadcquaicpcakin,powcrhalancin,laciliiicsdurin,ihc12ih
IivcYcarPlan pcriod.
Iilihly! salciyisihckcylaciorin dcicrminin,China`snuclcarcncr,ydcvclopmcni.^uclcar
powcrwillhcmorclavorahlchccauscoliisclcanncss! lowcrnuclcarluclcosi! siahiliiyand
hi,h cllicicncy.Comparcd wiih ihcrmalpowcr,cncraiion! nuclcarpowcr,cncraiion produccs
liiilcpolluianisand ncarzcrocmission olCHCs.Asarcsponsihlccouniry! Chinaassumcsiis
ducrcsponsihiliiyasadcvclopin,couniryin dcalin,wiih ,lohalwarmin,.1hcincrcasin,
prcssurcon Chinaiorcducccmission can hc,rcailymiii,aicd hynuclcarpowcr.Alihou,h ihc
cosiolhuildin,nuclcarpowcrplanisishi,h! ihcscrvicclilcolanuclcarpowcrplaniis
dcsi,ncd iohc40 60 ycarsand ihcload laciorishi,hcrihan oihcrnon-lossilluclpowcr
planis! and ihcnuclcarluclcosipcrkilowaiihourisahoui0.1 Chincscyuan.Likcihcrmal
powcr,cncraiion! nuclcarpowcr,cncraiion isvcrysicadyand noicasilyallccicd hywcaihcr.
1hcopcraiin,iimcolnuclcarpowcr-,cncraiion uniisisihclon,csi.China`snuclcarpowcr
planiscould lirsihcarran,cd alon,ihccasicrn coasiarca.Icspiicihcahovcadvania,cs!
salciyrcmainsihckcylaciorin dcicrminin,China`snuclcarcncr,ydcvclopmcni.Horcclloris
nccd iohcmadcio,uaraniccnuclcarplanisalciy! iopropcrlydisposcolnuclcarwasicand io
chcck nuclcarprolilcraiion risks.
Canc/as/an4* Anewg/aba/energy/andscape/stak/ng shapew/thanarersapp/y/nNarth
Amer/ca! anandersapp/y/nAs/a-Pac/f/cReg/anand a nearba/anceafsapp/yand
demand /nEarape.TheU.S./sre-era/aat/ng and re-rer/s/ng /tsenergy/ndependence
b/aepr/nt.Imprar/ng the/ra//sapp/ysecar/ty/sthecareafU.S.energy/ndependence.
Japan/smak/ng a hard dec/s/anafwhetherta g/reap nac/earenergyarnat! Rass/a /s
chang/ng /tsstrategy/narderta getr/d afthe/r/ang termdependenceanenergyexpartta
Earape.
4 2
Iirsily! ^orih Amcricaison iiswayioihc$Coldcn A,colEncr,y%.1hcchan,cin cncr,y
supplylandscapcin ^orih Amcricairi,,crcd hyihcshalc,asrcvoluiion has,rcailyalicrcd ihc
,asmarkciin ^orih Amcrica.Inconvcniionaloiland ,asrcsourccssuch asoilsands! shalc
oil! ii,hi,asand coal-hcd mcihanc! io,cihcrwiih rich oll-shorc,asand oilrcsourccs! and
ahundaniconvcniionalcoal! ^orih Amcricahashu,cpoicniialsolcncr,yrcsourccs.Accordin,
ioihcncws

issucd on April19 ol2012 hyihcI.S.ScnaicCommiiiccon Encr,y&^aiural

Bcsourccs! ihcI.S.has26% olworld`sicchnicallyrccovcrahlcconvcniionaloilrcsourccs.
1hisncwswasasi,nilicanichan,con prcsidcniUhama`scarlicrsiaicmcniihaiihcI.S.had
only2.2% olihcworld`sprovcn oilrcscrvcs.Alihou,h ihcicchnicallyrccovcrahlc
convcniionaloilrcsourccsand ihcprovcn oilrcscrvcsarcdillcrcniconccpis! and ihcdaia
26% siillnccd iohcconlirmcd lurihcr! iisiillcan indicaicihaia,rcaichan,chad iakcn
placcnoionlyin IS unconvcniionaloil,asrcscrvcs! huialsoin IS convcniionaloil
rcscrvcs.Clcarly! ihissiiuaiion mcansihaiihc^orih Amcrican markciwillcnjoyalowcroil
priccihan ciihcrihcAsia-Pacilicrc,ion orEuropcin ihclon,run.1hcrcisan cvcn widcr,ap
hciwccn naiural,aspriccs.Earlyihisycar! ihcL^Cpriccin ^orihcasiAsiais5 7 iimcs
hi,h ihan ihcnaiural,aspriccin ^orih Amcrica! and ihcnaiural,aspriccin Europcis1.5
2 iimcshi,h ihan ihaiin ^orih Amcrica.
Sccondly! mosicmcr,in,cconomicsincludin,Chinaand India! arclocaicd in ihcAsia-
Pacilicrc,ion! and arccausin,ihcincrcascin ,lohalcncr,ydcmand.|apan`sIukushima
disasicrmcansihaiihcAsia-Pacilicrc,ion hasamorcscriouscncr,yundcrsupply! cspccially
whcrcconvcniionalcncr,y! such ascoal& lorpowcr,cncraiion'! naiural,as& includin,
L^C'! lucloiland oihcroillorpowcr,cncraiion arcconccrncd.1hiswillmakcAsia-Pacilic
ahoicncr,ydcmand rc,ion loraconsidcrahlclon,iimc.SinccihcAsia-Pacilicrc,ion is
rclaiivclypoorin cncr,yrcsourccs! pariicularlyhi,h qualiiyoiland ,asrcsourccs! an
undcrsupplyolconvcniionalcncr,ysuch asoil! ,asand coalwillhcalon,-siandin,prohlcm.
1hismcansihaioiland ,aspriccswillsiayhi,h lorquiicalon,iimc.
In comparison! ihccncr,ysupplyand dcmand siiuaiion in Europcissomcwhcrchciwccn ihosc
in ^orih Amcricaand Asia-Pacilicrc,ion.Un ihcdcmand sidc! ihcovcrallcconomicsiiuaiion
in Europcsu,,csisihaiihisarcawillhavclimiicd cncr,ydcmand ,rowih in ihclon,icrm.Un
ihcsupplysidc! couniricslikcBussiaand ^orwayhoasirich cncr,yrcsourccsand arcahlcio
cxporilar,camouniolcncr,yioihcrcsiolEuropc.In addiiion! Europcan couniricsarc
payin,much aiicniion iocncr,yconscrvaiion and ihcdcvclopmcniollowcarhon cconomics.
5 2
Scchiip*cpw.scnaic.,ovpuhlicindcx.clm! $UhamaAdminisiraiion BcporiBcvcalsihaiihcIniicd SiaicsHas
26% olVorlds1cchnicallyBccovcrahlcConvcniionalUilBcsourccs%.
1hcrclorc! ihcovcrallcncr,ysupplyand dcmand siiuaiion in Europcissiahlcand can hc
casilyhalanccd &alihou,h currcnilymosiolEuropc`scncr,ysupplycomclromimporis! and
iispoicniialdomcsiiccncr,yrcsourccsarclarhchind ihoscolihcI.S.'.
A,ainsiihishack,round! ihcI.S.isrc-draliin,iiscncr,yindcpcndcncchlucprini.
Inconvcniionaloiland ,asrcsourccs! rcprcscnicd hyshalc,asand shalcoil! havchclpcd ihc
I.S.iakca,rcaisiridcon iis$wayiocncr,yindcpcndcncc%.1haialsohclpcd ihcAmcricans
win iimcand raiscihcpossihiliiylorihcI.S.,ovcrnmcniiokccp iispromisc$iorclymainly
on slowdcvclopmcniolncwand rcncwahlccncr,icsaswcllasicchnolo,icssuch asclcciric
vchiclcs! hiomass! wind cncr,yand solarcncr,y%.Buiwcshould undcrsiand ihcconccpiol
Amcrica`scncr,yindcpcndcnccmorcaccuraic! Amcrica`scnormouspoicniialolcncr,yscll-
sullicicncymakcsiilcssdcpcndcnion imporisycarhyycar.A,ainsiihchackdrop oloil
markci,lohalizaiion! Amcricamayimporirclaiivclychcap oillromSaudiArahiaand oihcr
counirics&c.,.Canadaand Hcxico! cic.'.1hcI.S.hasnonccd! and indccd would noihc
ahlcioachicvc100% cncr,yscll-sullicicncy.Amcrica`scncr,yindcpcndcnccismorca
poliiicalslo,an ihan an aciualpolicyohjcciivc.1hccsscnccol$cncr,yindcpcndcncc% isio
improvcoilsupplysccuriiy.AlicrihcIukushimadisasicr! |apan issiru,,lin,iodccidc
whcihcrornoiio,ivcup nuclcarcncr,y.|apan isoncolAsia`sand ihcworld`slar,csi
cconomicshuiiihasoncolihcworsicndowmcnisolcncr,yrcsourccs.Il|apan isiorcplacc
26%&daiahascd in 2010' oliisnuclcarwiih oihcrlormsolpowcr! iiwillhavciopaya
hi,hcrcosi! which ishound iolurihcrii,hicn cncr,ysupplyin Asia.Il|apan docsn0 i
ahandon nuclcarpowcr! ihc,ovcrnmcniwillrisk losin,supporilromihcpuhlic.1hcrclorc!
|apan islacin,a,rcaidilcmma.Scparaicly! Bussiahascsiahlishcd iiscncr,ydiplomaiic
siraic,ylcaiurin,acomprchcnsivc! mulii-laicralapproach hascd on ihcCIS couniricsio
siahilizcihcEuropcmarkci! cxpand ihcAsiamarkci! and challcn,cihcHiddlcEasi.
Canc/as/an5* Thetransfarmat/anaftheg/aba/ecanam/cgrawthmade/w///dr/re
prafaand changes/nthetata/amaantand stractareafenergydemand.Thenextf/reyears
w///bea cr/t/ca/phasefartheemerg/ng ecanam/esta changethepatternafg/aba/energy
demand.Theg/aba/energysapp/yand tradestractarew///befartherd/rers/f/ed.
Economiciranslormaiion and rcsiruciurin,willhcihckcynoicol,lohalcconomicdcvclopmcni
in ihccomin,livcycars.Hanydcvclopcd couniricswillhavcioadopiihc,radualrclormolihc
sysicmand rciurn ioihcrcalcconomyiosolvcihcircomplicaicd prohlcms! which includc
hcavypuhlicdchis! cxccsssocialwcllarc! a,in,populaiions! ihchollowin,-ouiolindusirics!
and ihcovcrly-prospcrousviriualcconomy.Emcr,in,cconomicswillhcihclcadin,lorcclor
,lohalcconomic,rowih.Howcvcr! wiih ihcircxpori-oricnicd cconomicdcvclopmcnimodcl!
6 2
ihcywillnccd ioundcr,oaquick and painluliransiiion.1hisiranslormaiion olihc,lohal
cconomicsiruciurcwillhavcadccp impacion cncr,ydcmand.1hcioialpopulaiion in
dcvclopcd cconomicsisonly1 hillion whcrcasihaiin ihccmcr,in,and dcvclopin,cconomics
hasalrcadyrcachcd 5 hillion.Amon,ihcm ihcpopulaiion olcmcr,in,cconomicsiakcsup
ahoui3 hillion.1hclasicconomic,rowih couplcd wiih avasipopulaiion willhrin,ahouia
rapid incrcascin cncr,yconsumpiion.In ihccomin,ycars ,lohalcconomicrcsiruciurin,will
chan,cihcovcrallpiciurcol,lohalcncr,ydcmand and dcmand willhcmainlydrivcn hy
cmcr,in,and dcvclopin,cconomics.1hcrclorc ihccomin,5 ycarswillhcacriiical
iransiiionalphasclorihccmcr,in,cconomicsiochan,cihcpaiicrn ol,lohalcncr,ydcmand.
Iorcncr,yconsumpiion dcvclopcd cconomics lcd hyUECI willhclurihcrrcplaccd hy
dcvclopin,counirics rcprcscnicd hycmcr,in,cconomics.1hciransiiion willlcad ihc
inicrnaiionalcommuniiyioscihi,hcrsiandardslorihciransparcncyand rcliahiliiyolihc
cncr,ydaialromdcvclopin,counirics and alsoihcconsiruciion olancwcncr,y,co-poliiical
alliancc.
In ihccomin,5 ycars ihc,lohalcncr,ysupplyand iradcsiruciurcwillhccomcmorc
divcrsilicd.Alihou,h somcprcviousouilookswcrcnc,aiivcahouiihcpoicniialol,lohalcncr,y
supplyiosaiislydcmand in rcccniycarsihanksioncw,lohalcxploraiion and advanccd
cncr,yicchnolo,ics ihcioialvolumcolcxploiiahlccncr,yrcsourccs includin,convcniional
cncr,yrcsourccs such ascoal oiland ,as aswcllasunconvcniionaloiland ,asrcsourccs
rcmain aiahi,h lcvcl.Uiland naiural,asrcsourccsarcrc,ionallymaldisirihuicd.Hosiolihc
worldsrcmainin,oiland ,asrcsourccsarcin scvcralrc,ionsolihcHiddlcEasi ^orih Alrica
and Eurasia.1hcVcsicrn Hcmisphcrcconiainsahundaniunconvcniionaloiland ,as
rcsourccs such asoilsand shalcoil shalc,as coal-hcd mcihancand ulirahcavyoil cic.
Howcvcr in ihca,col,lohallowcarhon cconomy ihccosiolcxplorin,and proccssin,ihcsc
rcsourccsiscomparaiivclyhi,h.Asiihccomcsmorcdilliculi and alsomorccosilyiohavc
ihcscrcsourccscxplorcd produccd iranslormcd and iransporicd ioihcdcmand sidcin an
cllcciivc salcand cnvironmcnial-lricndlyway pcoplcwillsiillhavciochan,cihcirchoiccol
cncr,yaccordin,ioihcsiiuaiion.In rcccniycars ihcpoliiicalunrcsiand ,copoliiicalconllicis
in VcsiAsiaand ^orih Alricahavcovcriurncd ihc,ovcrnmcnisin 1unis E,ypiand Lihya
and poscd ihrcaisioSyria Bahrain and Ycmcn.Sincccarly2012 ihcsiiuaiion in Iran has
drawn pcoplc`saiicniion ioihcrcliahiliiyolrc,ionalsupply.Viih ihcsiiuaiion pcoplchc,an
ioworryahouiihcsullicicncyand sccuriiyolcncr,yiransporiinlrasiruciurc hccauscihc
incrcasin,cncr,y hasio hc iransporicd ihrou,h ihc alrcady crowdcd and lra,ilc
hoiilcnccks such asihcSuczCanaland ihcSiraiisolHormuz.Hanycncr,yconsumcrsarc
iakin,aciion iocxpand ihciriradin,parincrs iryin,iodivcrsilyihcirimporiin,sourccsin
7 2
ordcriorcduccihcrisks.
Canc/as/an6* OPEChasa //m/ted patent/a/faractaa/pradact/an/ncrease/nthecam/ng
5 years.Saad/Arab/a'spradact/an/sst///themastf/ex/b/e.Unstab/eg/aba/gea-pa//t/ca/!
ecanam/cand f/nanc/a/s/taat/ansargea//caantr/esta attachgreater/mpartanceta the/r
Strateg/cPetra/eamReserre&SPR'.O//secar/ty/sst///thecareafg/aba/energysecar/ty.
Ccncrallyspcakin,! whcihcrUPECwillincrcasciisproduciion ornoiisdccidcd hyihc
markci.In ihccomin,5 ycars! as,lohalcconomiclundamcnialsarcallin ihcrccovcryphasc!
ihcpoicniialloranyrcalproduciion incrcascislimiicd.1hcproduciion incrcascplansol
UPECvaryamon,iis12 mcmhcrcounirics! and casidillcrcniinllucnccson ihcircxisiin,
produciion capaciiics! duciodillcrcnicxisiin,produciion capaciiicsaswcllasihclinancial
and poliiicalcnvironmcni.
1hccouniricsihainowhavcihclcasiahiliiyioincrcascproduciion arcIran and \cnczucla.
Boih counirics0 oillicldsarc,raduallydryin,up! lcadin,ioihcrapid dcclincolproduciion.
In addiiion! ihcpoliiicalcnvironmcnialsoimpacisihcircapiial! cquipmcni! scrviccand
circulaiion.In couniricsihaihavclar,crpoicniialioincrcascproduciion! SaudiArahiahasihc
mosiadvania,cous,co,raphiclocaiion.Viih rich domcsiiclinancialsourccsand oilrcsourccs!
SaudiArahiaownsaloiolroomlor,rowih in nciproduciion capaciiy.Iraq hassimilar
advania,csin ,co,raphiccondiiion! huia,ainsiiisunsiahlcpoliiicalcnvironmcni! Iraq nccds
ouisidcaid iorcconsolidaiciislon,-shclvcd produciion capaciiy! includin,inlrasiruciurcand
licld condiiions.
HosioloihcrUPECmcmhcrslallin hciwccn ihcahovclourcounirics.Somcnccd ioiakc
mcasurcsiodcalwiih ihcrcsourcccxhausiion( oihcrsarclaccd wiih poliiicalunrcsi.Iiissiill
possihlcihaipoliiicalunrcsiwillsprcad and inicnsilyin ^orih Alricaand ihcHidcasiCull
rc,ion.1woolUPEC`smcmhcrcouniricsin VcsiAlrica! ^i,criaand An,ola! arclacin,
poliiicalprohlcms! hoih runnin,ihcrisk olaslump in produciion.
In ihccomin,5 ycars! uncxpccicd poliiicalunrcsiwillrcsuliin somccounirics0 produciion
rcduciion hclorc2015! includin,Iran.Had iinoihccn suhjcciiooilcmhar,osorlinancial
sanciionslromwcsicrn counirics! Iran wason irack ioincrcascproduciion wiih iis25 io30
assi,ncd projccis.Howcvcr! ,ivcn ihcunlavorahlccondiiionsin inicrnaiionaliradc! domcsiic
linanccand invcsimcnicnvironmcni! produciion drawdown willspccd up wiih hi,h
unccriainiyolproduciion incrcasc.A,ainsisuch ahack,round! ihcdynamicsparccapaciiyol
SaudiArahiawillmakcUPEClunciion in amorcllcxihlcwaywhcn copin,wiih lluciuaiion in
oildcmand! poliiicalinicrvcniion and cxircmcpricclluciuaiion! cic.Viih acapaciiyol10
mh d! SaudiArahiacan mana,cpriccspikcsunilaicrally! hyliliin,iiscapaciiyio11 11.7
8 2
mh d in sicp wiih incrcasin,dcmand! i.c! iican siillmainiain iissparccapaciiyol1 1.7
mh d.In addiiion! SaudiArahiacan alsocndurcan cxircmclimiiolcapaciiydccrcasin,io8.
5 mh d.1hchurdcn willhcsharcd hyallUPECmcmhcrsalicrwards.1hcrclorc! in ihc
comin,5 ycars! around 30 mh d willhcproduccd wiihin ihccapaciiyolallUPECmcmhcrs.
Amon,ihcm! SaudiArahiawillhcmorcihan capahlcolproducin,8.5 11.7 mh d.Iis
clasiiccapaciiycan rcach 3.20 mh d.
Considcrin,allihcahovclaciors! in ordcriorcsisiihcrisksihailinancialcrisisand
,copoliiicalunrcsihrin,sioihcoilsupplysccuriiy! iiisnoionlyihclar,coilconsumcrslrom
convcniionaldcvclopcd cconomicsihaiarcsircn,ihcnin,ihciroilrcscrvccapaciiy! cmcr,in,
cconomicsarcalsoaccclcraiin,ihcconsiruciion olihciroilrcscrvc.1hcI.S.cvcn iakcs
$incrcasin,oilrcscrvcs% asoncolihccsscniialmcasurcsiokccp iiscncr,yindcpcndcncc.
Alicrihcouihrcak olihclaicsilinancialcrisis! ihcoilrcscrvcsolihcI.S.rcmainsaiahi,h
lcvcl.|apan and Souih Korcahavcnoionlysircn,ihcncd ihcircrudcoilrcscrvc! huialso
incrcascd ihcproducioilrcscrvc.Chinaand India! ihou,h aiallcd,in,sia,coloilrcscrvc!
archoih aciivclyaccclcraiin,ihcirconsiruciion oloilrcscrvclaciliiics.Irom a,lohal
pcrspcciivc! olallihcvariciicsin ,lohalcncr,yiradc! oilissiillihcrcsourccwiih hoih ihc
hi,hcsichanccolsupplyinicrrupiion and ihchi,hcsircplaccmcni-inclasiiciiy& ihcmosi
unlikclyiohcrcplaccd'.Assuch! oilissiillihccorcol,lohalcncr,ysccuriiyin ihcluiurc.
Canc/as/an7* G/aba/a//pr/ce/sdeterm/ned byfandamenta/s/nthe/ang termwh//eshart
termf/actaat/ansasaa//yresa/tfram nan-fandamenta/s.S/nce2008! f/nanc/a/factars
harefreqaent/ybeenthemajarcaaseafwar/d a//pr/cef/actaat/ans.Geapa//t/ca/factars
ma/n/yharean/nd/rectyet/mmed/ate/mpactana//pr/cebyaffect/ng sapp/yand demand
fandamenta/s.
Un ihconchand! ihclon,-icrmircnd ol,lohaloilpriccisdcicrmincd hyihclundamcnialsol
supplyand dcmand! wiih siock scrvin,asahalancin,laciorhciwccn ihciwo.Vhcn
siockpilcshalloon! ihcmarkciicndsiohcovcrsupplicd.Vhilcshrinkin,siock si,nalssupply
shoria,c.1hcrclorc! siock lcvclsaiCushin,hcavilyinllucnccV1I.^oiahlyUPEC
produciion! non-UECIdcmand and UECIsiock arcallmajorlundamcnialslaciorsin
dcicrminin,,lohaloilpricc.Alihou,h UECIdcmand haslcssimpacion oilpriccihan non-
UECIdcmand! UECIcouniricslcd hyAmcricahavchccn acrucialpillarolsupporilor
,lohaloilpricc.Viihouiihisparioldcmand! oilpriccwould noisiayaiaccriain lcvcl.1hus!
hi,h priccisrcsulicd hoih lromUECIdcmand and non-UECIdcmand.1hcrcvcnucnccd lor
UPECcouniricsisalsoalundamcniallacioroloilpriccsand isrcllccicd hyihcUPEC
cxpccicd pricchcnchmark.Currcnilyihislaciorismcasurcd hyUPEChaskcipricc.
9 2
Un ihcoihcrhand! non-lundamcnialsmayiri,,crpricclluciuaiions.Un ihconchand! non-
lundamcnialscan causcsharp lluciuaiionshyallcciin,shori-icrmsupplyand dcmand.Ior
cxamplc! allihrccoilpriccsur,cshciwccn 1973 and 1994 wcrcaiirihuicd iowarwhich
hrou,hiinsianiimpacion UPECsupply.Allolihcmlcd iooilcriscsiosomccxicniand
nc,aiivclyinllucnccd ihc,lohalcconomy.In cach casc! ihccnsuin,dcmand dcclincrcvcrscd
ihcupward ircnd olpriccs! rcsuliin,in sharp oillluciuaiions.Un ihcoihcrhand! ihc
inllucnccollinanciallaciorson oilpriccismorcohviousasshown in dollardcprcciaiion!
siock markcivolaiiliiy! inllowolhoimoncyand capiiallli,hiin linancialmarkcis! cic.1hc
iwopcriodsolsharp spikcsin oilpricclollowcd hydccp irou,hshciwccn 1994 and 2008 wcrc
closclyrclaicd iolinanciallaciors.1hiswaspariicularlyihccascwhcn ihc2008 linancial
crisisinllowsand lli,hiolcapiialio,cihcrwiih adcprcciaiin,dollarhrou,hiahouicxircmc
lluciuaiionsin oilpricc.
In addiiion! laciorsincludin,,copoliiicsand cxircmcwcaihcrcondiiionscan alsolcad ioshori
icrmpriccvolaiiliiy.1hc2011 Lihyan warrcsulicd in a1.3 mh d drop in oilsupplyolihc
,lohalmarkciinsianily! ihuspushcd priccup hy15 20 hhlin ihcshoriicrm.Iran mi,hi
siillhcan imporianiiri,,crin,laciorihaiallccisworld oilpriccin ihcluiurc.
Canc/as/an8* Therap/d grawthafnan-canrent/ana/a//gaspradact/an/nNarthAmer/ca
and ther/garaasenergydemand /nAs/a w////ead ta mared/fferences/nthewar/d energy
markets.Thecanceptthatnatara/gashasentered thega/denagerar/esgreat/y/n
d/fferentmarkets.Natara/gasfae/ed pawergenerat/anwh/chcan/arge/yredaceCO
2
em/ss/an/ntheU.S.hasa d/st/nctedgeand w////nd/rect/yaffectCh/na'swayaf
cambat/ng c//matechange.
Un ihconchand! wiih ihccnd olihclow-oil-pricccra! Canadahassccn arapid incrcascol
oilsand produciion in rcccniycars! rcachin,1.5 million h d in 2010.Accordin,ioBP
Stat/st/ca/Rer/ewafWar/d Energy2011! hyihccnd ol2010! ihcprovcd rcscrvcol
convcniionaloilin Canadasiood ai32.1 hillion harrcls! and ihaioloilsand 143.1 hillion
harrcls.Iisioialprovcd rcscrvcsurpasscd Iran! which madcCanadaihcihird lar,csioil
rcscrvccouniryin ihcworld.
Un ihcoihcrhand! wiih hrcakihrou,hsin shalc,asicchnolo,y! ^orih Amcricahas,rcai
poicniialin non-convcniional,asoilrcsourccs! includin,shalc,as! shalcoil! ii,hi,asand
coal-hcd mcihanc.Accordin,ioEIAsiaiisiics! ihcI.S.hasihcrichcsishalcoilrcsourccsin
ihcworld! iakin,up ovcr70% olihc,lohalrcscrvc.^on-convcniional,asrcscrvc! such as
shalc,as! ii,hi,asand coal-hcd mcihanc! accounislor60% olihcioialacccssihlc,as
rcscrvcsin ihcI.S..Siaiisiicsrclcascd hyAPIshowihaiincludin,shalc,as! ihcIniicd
0 3
Siaicshasihcmosiicchnicallyrccovcrahlcoiland naiural,asrcsourccsin ihcworld* 24%
morcihan ihaiolSaudiArahia.Iucioihchi,h oilpriccsin rcccniycars! hrcakihrou,hsand
ihcdccrcascolcosiin ihccxploraiion and dcvclopmcniolnon-convcniionalrcsourcc! morc
rcscrvcshavchccomccconomicallyrccovcrahlc.
Shalcoilproduciion rosclrom0.2 million h d in 2000 io1million h d in 2010 and shalc,as
produciion sur,cd lrom12.2 Bcmin 2000 io180 Bcmin 2011! accouniin,lor34% olI.S.
ioial,asproduciion.Asarcsuliolihcscdramaiicimprovcmcnis! ihc,asmarkciin ^orih
Amcricahasplun,cd inioapcriod olrccordcd lowpriccs.In April2012! ,aspriccdroppcd
hclow2 HHBiu.
Inlikc^orih Amcrica! L^Cpricin,in ^orihcasiAsiamarkciasrcprcscnicd hy|apan has
hccn linkcd ioBrcnicrudcluiurcs.1hcpriccolL^Cin Asiawillrcmain hi,hcrihan ihaiol
ihcrcsiolihcworld asL^Cdcmand lromiradiiionalimporicrs! such as|apan! Souih Korca!
China! 1aiwan and India! willincrcascannually.SinccihcIukushimanuclcardisasicrin
Harch 2011! L^Chashccomcihcprincipallucliomakcup lorihclossolnuclcarcncr,y.
|apan`sL^Cimporis,rcwhy24.9% and rcachcd 7.67 million ionsin Ichruary2012 whilc
L^Cpriccrosclrom10.2 HHBiu in Harch 2011 io16.03 HHBiu in Ichruary2012.
CouniricslikcSouih Korca! China! 1aiwan and Indiaalsohavcsiron,dcmand in L^Cwiih
an avcra,cannual,rowih raicol20% 40%.1hcL^Cpricchason avcra,cincrcascd hy
30%40%.Couniricslikc1hailand! Halaysiaand Indoncsiawilljoin ihclamilyolnciL^C
imporicrs&dcspiiccompciiiion hciwccn coaland L^C'.1hcrclorc! aconsiraincd L^Cmarkci
will,raduallyappcarin Asia! which isdillcrcnilromihccondiiionsol^orih Amcricamarkci.
1hcscihrcc,asmarkcis& ^orih Amcrica! ^orih-casiAsia! Europc' willsiillrcmain
sc,mcnicd loralon,iimc.
Cas-lircd powcr,cncraiion willhcmorccompciiiivcin ihcI.S.and mi,hicomplciclyrcplacc
coal-lircd powcr,cncraiion.Iiwillalsowidcn ihccosi,ap lromnuclcarand rcncwahlcpowcr
,cncraiion.1hclaicsisiaiisiicsin 2012 su,,csisihaicosipcruniilorncwlyhuiliCCC1
&Comhincd CyclcCas1urhinc' planisin I.S.is30% lowcrihan ihaiolcoaland wind
powcr! hallolnuclcarpowcrand aquaricrolsolarpowcr.^oiahly! in April2012 ihcI.S.
EnvironmcnialProicciion A,cncy&$EPA%' puhlishcd CU
2
cmission siandardslorncwlossil
lucl-lircd powcrplanis! which limiicd ihoscplanisioamaximumCU
2
cmissionsraicol1000
poundspcrmc,awaii-hour&453,KVh'.1hissiandard iscloscioihaiol,as-lircd powcr
planisand is1 2 olihaiolcoal-lircd powcrplanis.Uhviously! ihispolicywill,rcailyrcducc
I.S.CHCscmissionsand willwin morciniiiaiivcslorihcI.S.in ,lohalclimaicchan,c
nc,oiiaiions.In conirasi! Chinaisraihcrpassivcin dcalin,wiih climaicchan,cissucsducio
alack olchcap and ahundaninaiural,asiorcplacccoal-lircd powcr,cncraiion.
1 3
Canc/as/an9* Energyshartages/nAs/a w///warsenw/th/mpartpr/cesstay/ng h/ghfara
/ang t/me! and caa/w///rema/nthepr/mesaarceafbase-/aad pawergenerat/an/nmajar
As/ancaantr/esfarthenextf/reyearsareren/anger.
Accordin,ioihcchiclcconomisiolColdman Sachs! HrU^cill! in ihcncxi20 ycars! ihcrc
willhc70 90 million pcoplcworldwidciocnicrihcmiddlcclasscvcryycar! mosiolwhom
willcomclromcmcr,in,cconomicsin Asia.Asarcsuli! cncr,ydcmand will,rowrapidly!
powcr,cncraiion willdcvclop aiarcmarkahlcraicwiih ihcrcsuliihairclianccon coalwill
incrcasc.Currcnily! ihcpowcrsccioraccounislorahoui40% olihcworld`sioialprimary
cncr,ydcmand and loraquaricrolihcioialCHCscmission.Currcniinvcsimcniplanswill
,rcailyinllucncccncr,ymixand CHCscmission asihcopcraiin,cyclcollar,cplanisis
usuallyovcr50 ycars.In icrmsolahsoluicquaniiiy! coalwasihclasicsi,rowin,cncr,y
variciyworldwidcin ihcpasidccadc.HosiolihcincrcasccomcslromAsia! cspcciallyChina
and Indiawhcrccoalischcap and ahundani.1hcrmalpowcraccounislor80% and 70% ol
powcr,cncraiion in Chinaand Indiarcspcciivcly.UihcrAsian couniricssuch asAusiralia!
Indoncsiaand \icinamin pariicular! archoih majorconsumcrsand cxporicrsolcoal.
Iiisihcchoiccolcncr,ysourcclorhascload powcr,cncraiion! i.c.ihccompciiiion amon,
coal! ,as! nuclcarand hydropowcrihaiwillhavcihcmosidramaiicimpacion cnvironmcni
raihcrihan ihccompciiiion hciwccn rcncwahlccncr,yand lossillucls.Hajorcconomicsin
Asialacccommon prohlcmssuch assupplyshoria,cs! vcryhi,h priccslor,asand oihcrhi,h
qualiiycncr,y&currcnilyL^Cpriccin Asia-Pacilicrc,ion is5 io7 iimcsihaiolihcI.S.
markciand 1.5 iimcsihaiolihcEuropcan markci'! ,co,raphiclimiiaiionsin hydropowcrand
issucsolsalciy! icchnolo,yand rcsourccsin nuclcarpowcrdcvclopmcni.Asarcsuli! hasc-
load luclsand oihcrsourccsolpowcr,cncraiion ihaicnjoyacompciiiivccd,cin ihcI.S.and
Europcan markcisarclcsscompciiiivcin Asia.
1hcrclorc! ncwlyinsiallcd capaciiyin Asialorihcncxilivcycarswillsiillhccoal-lircd
dcspiicihclaciihaiihcncwcncr,ysourccsmcniioncd ahovcarcclcancrand havclcwcr
carhon cmissions&lorinsiancc! comparcd wiih coal! ,ascan rcduccCHCscmissionshyai
lcasi50% in powcr,cncraiion'.
Canc/as/an10* Law-carbanecanamyw///dam/natethefatareafenergytechna/agy.
Renewab/eenergy! thaaghaccaant/ng fara sma//share/nenergym/x! /sgraw/ng
gradaa//y.Anewraand af/ndastr/a/rera/at/anaraand newenergyand renewab/eenergy
dere/apmentand at///zat/anhasa/readystarted.Hawerer! e/ectr/creh/c/esw///nat
pass/b/yrep/acea//-fae/ed reh/c/esana /argesca/ew/th//th/ambatterytechna/agythe
ma/nabstac/e.Inadd/t/an! /t/shard ta app/yCCSana /argesca/e/nfass//fae/ed pawer
2 3
generat/an.
Iirsily ihcprccondiiion lordcvclopin,low-carhon cconomyisamarkcilorlow-carhon
icchnolo,yand rcsourccs.Emcr,in,cconomicslikcChina Indiaand Brazilwillhcihcmain
sourccolincrcasin,cncr,ydcmand.Asaciivcplaycrsin cncr,ymarkcis ihcsccouniricsarc
crcaiin,hu,cmarkcislorihcdcvclopmcniolihclow-carhon cconomy.Iorinsiancc alihou,h
iiisihciop CHCscmiiicr Chinaisalsoihclar,csimarkcilorclcan cncr,yand oncolihc
lcadin,couniricsin clcan cncr,ydcvclopmcni.Clcan cncr,yicchnolo,icswillplayamorc
imporianiand lundamcnialrolcin China`scncr,ydcvclopmcni cvcn ihou,h currcnilymosiol
ihcmsuch assolar wind hiomassand nuclcar nccd policyand linancialsupporilromihc
,ovcrnmcni.In addiiion hoih Chinaand Indiahavcsciiar,cislorrcncwahlccncr,yand
carhon cmissionsiopromoicdomcsiicdcmand lorclcan cncr,yand cllicicnicncr,y
icchnolo,icsand scrviccs.A,ainsiihchack,round ol,lohalclimaicchan,c ihcsciar,cisarc
noiunrcalisiic alihou,h admiiicdly ihcrcissiillalon,wayio,o.Iican hcsccn lrom
China`slaicsi12
ih
IivcYcarPlan ihaiihcinllucnccolihosciar,cisand rclcvaniclcan cncr,y
projccison ihccouniry`sdcvclopmcnisiraic,icsisdccpcnin,.1osumup allcouniricsarc
lacin,,rcaichallcn,csin applyin,clcan cncr,yicchnolo,ics huiihcrcarcsi,nsihaipro,rcss
ishcin,madcin ovcrcomin,ihcmain ohsiaclcs such asihcrcduciion olicchnolo,ycosis
dcvclopmcnioldisirihuicd cncr,yand ,ciiin,morcrcncwahlccncr,yioacccssihc,rid.
Icvclopcd couniricsin ihcVcsisuch asihcI.S.havcalsopaid aiicniion ioclcan cncr,y
markci.HanyI.S.companicshavcpariicipaicd in ihcB&Iproccssand manyhi,h-icch
producishavc,oncinioihcinicrnaiionalsupplychain.
Sccondly wiih world cconomicdcvclopmcniand incrcasin,cncr,ydcmand cncr,ysccuriiy
hccomcsmorcpromincniand ihcsociocconomicsiaiusolrcncwahlccncr,yisrisin,.Aiihc
hc,innin,ol2011 119 couniricshad lormulaicd iar,cisorprovidcd siimulusinccniivcsio
dcvclop rcncwahlccncr,y which cncoura,cd pcoplciouscmorcrcncwahlccncr,y.Howcvcr
aparilromhydropowcr rcncwahlccncr,yaccounisloronlyasmallproporiion olihc,lohal
cncr,ymarkci.Accordin,iosiaiisiicslromBP oiliook up 33.6% olihcioialcncr,y
consumpiion coal29.6% and ,as23.8% lollowcd hyhydropowcrand nuclcarcncr,y.
Vhilcrcncwahlccncr,ysuch ashio-lucls wind ,coihcrmal solar hiomassand solid wasic
alio,cihcraccounisloronly1.8%.1haisaid ihisli,urcwasaihrcc-lold incrcasclromihc0.
6% lcvcladccadca,o.In 2010 Biomassproduciion jumpcd hy14%.In 2011 powcr
,cncraiion lrom rcncwahlccncr,yroschy15.5% ihclar,csi,rowih sincc1990 and
accounicd lor1.3% olioialcncr,yconsumpiion and 3.3% olioialpowcr,cncraiion.
Accordin,iosiaiisiicslromIniicd ^aiionsEnvironmcniPro,ram invcsimcniin rcncwahlc
cncr,yhiiarccord hi,h in 2011 rcachin,211 hillion dollars rcprcscniin,a32% incrcasc
3 3
lrom2009.1op livccouniricsin icrmsolioialrcncwahlcpowcr,cncraiion cxcludin,
hydropowcrarcihcI.S.! China! Ccrmany! Spain and India.
1hcrcarcmanylaciorshindcrin,ihcdcvclopmcniolrcncwahlccncr,y! includin,hi,h cosis
&ihou,h consianilydcclinin,' and suhsidicslorlossillucls.^oncihclcss! rcncwahlccncr,yis
,rowin,and iissharcin cncr,ymixiscxpccicd ioincrcasc! ihanksio,lohaliniiiaiivcsio
copcwiih climaicchan,cand cncr,ysccuriiy.1cchnolo,icalpro,rcsswillhccomcihcmajor
drivin,lorcclorrcncwahlcand ncwcncr,ydcvclopmcni.Iollowin,ihclinancialcrisis!
manulaciurin,hashccn rciurnin,iodcvclopcd couniricslikcihcI.S.Howcvcr! ihisrciurn
hashccn ahi,h-icch oncand lorihcmosipariinvolvcswind powcr! solar! cncr,y
conscrvaiion! smari,rid! CCS! ncw,cncraiion nuclcarpowcr! sccond-,cncraiion hiomass
and oihcriypcsolncwcncr,yand rcncwahlccncr,y.1hcrclorc! ancwround olindusirial
rcvoluiion ccnicrin,on ncwcncr,yand rcncwahlccncr,yhashc,un.
Howcvcr! ihcrcwillhardlyhcanyhrcakihrou,h in iwocorcicchnolo,icsihaiarchi,hly
rclaicd wiih ,lohalcncr,ysccuriiyand climaicchan,c.Iirsi! ihckcyicchnolo,ylorclcciric
vchiclcswhich can rcduccoilconsumpiion si,nilicanilyand improvc,lohalcncr,ysccuriiyis
ihchaiicry.Accordin,iolicld mcasurcmcniand csiimaics! liihiumhaiicricssiillsullcrlrom
hi,h cncr,yconsumpiion and hi,h polluiion undcrcurrcniicchnolo,icsin ihcChincscmarkci.
Couplcd wiih hi,h cosis! inconvcnicniwci,hiand shorililc! ihcliihiumhaiicryisunahlcio
hrin,rcvoluiionarychan,csioclcciricvchiclcs.Sccond! CCS! ihchcsihopciorcducccarhon
cmissionslromlossilluclcd powcr,cncraiion in ihcworld! islacin,somclaialprohlcms!
includin,lack olsomcinic,raicd commcrcialdcmonsiraiions! incrcasin,ioialcosis! lallin,
cncr,ycllicicncy! lack ollc,islaiion supporiand lowpuhlicacccpiancc.
Canc/as/an11* Internat/ana/energygarernancew///becharacter/zed byfeatares//ke
$ma/t/-pa/ar! d/rers/f/ed target%( Ch/na w///p/aya mare/mpartantra/e/nestab//sh/ng a
new/nternat/ana/energyarder! batw///facea namberafcha//enges! sachasenergy
secar/ty! em/ss/anredact/an! tata/energycansampt/anredact/an! and /aca/enr/ranment
pa//at/ancantra/! etc.
Iirsi! ihcncwordcrolinicrnaiionalcncr,y,ovcrnanccwillhavcihclollowin,lcaiurcs* Hulii-
polariiyin ihclramcwork ol,lohalcncr,y,ovcrnanccupholdsihchalanccolpowcr! which
mcansihainoinsiiiuiion hasahsoluicdominaiin,powcr.1hcsiaiusand inllucnccoliradiiional
auihoriiicssuch asIEAand UPECarchcin,challcn,cd hyoilconsumcrsand non-UPEC
produccrslromcmcr,in,cconomics.1hclramcwork olmuliilaicralcoopcraiion and ,ovcrnancc
siillrcquircsimprovcmcnilromamulii-dimcnsionalapproach.1hcIEIisnominallyihconly
rcalinicrnaiionalcncr,yor,anizaiion ihaiincludcshoih advanccd and dcvclopin,counirics!
4 3
huiiissiaiisiicalinlormaiion comcslromsixoihcror,anizaiions! namclyAPEC! Eurosiai!
IEA! ULAIE! UPECand I^SI.Iishusincssscopcislimiicd! la,,in,larhchind IEA! or
cvcn EIA.1hou,h mulii-laicralcoopcraiion in cncr,ylicld isncccssary! hilaicralcoopcraiion
willplayamorcpraciicalrolc.
Sccond! climaicchan,cwillimpaciihcinicrnaiionalcncr,yordcr.In ordcrioaddrcssclimaic
chan,c! allcouniricsarclorccd ioconccivcand dcvclop ihcirown lowcarhon pro,rams.As
ihcshiliioalowcarhon cconomyisnowa,lohalircnd! an ordcrlylowcarhon ,ovcrnancc
schcmcshould hchuili.1hccurrcnisccnarioollimiiin,ihc,lohalicmpcraiurcincrcascio
2'! addrcsscd hyI^ICCC! isnoircalisiic.Inicrnaiional,ovcrnanccsiilllacksamcchanism
lorpromoiin,rcncwahlccncr,y! whoscdcvclopmcnisiilldcpcndson ,ovcrnmcnisuppori.
Emission rcduciion hashccomcan inicrnaiionalohli,aiion! huidispuicsahouihowiorcducc
cmission and whcihcriorclyon ihc,lohalcarhon markcisiillcxisi.1hcpossihiliiyol
csiahlishin,a,lohalcarhon markciisunccriain.
In addiiion! anyncw,lohalcncr,yordcrwilllaccvariouschallcn,cs.1hcrcarcdisiinci
disa,rccmcnishciwccn dcvclopcd couniricsand dcvclopin,couniricson addrcssin,cncr,yand
cnvironmcnialissucsasihclormcricnd ioi,norcihclivclihood and dcvclopmcniolihclaiicr.
Iorinsiancc! on ihcissucolcncr,ysccuriiy! pcoplclromdcvclopcd couniricsarcmorc
conccrncd wiih $ whcihcriiwillimpaciourcomloriahlclilc%! whilcihosclormdcvclopin,
couniricsarcworricd ahoui$whcihcriiwillinllucnccourhasiclivin,nccds%( on ihcissucol
$,lohalcnvironmcniand climaicchan,c%! advanccd counirics0 main conccrn ishowio
addrcssclimaicchan,c! whilcdcvclopin,couniricsalsonccd ioiacklclocalcnvironmcnial
prohlcms.Vhai`smorc! in dcalin,wiih issucssuch as$unlavorahlclaciorsin inicrnaiional
,copoliiics% and $ ihcnc,aiivcchain rcaciionsolcconomiccrisis%! dcvclopin,counirics
alwayslind ihcmsclvcsin an inlcriorposiiion hccauscolihcircomparaiivclywcakcrcconomic!
poliiicaland miliiarysiaius.
Asaiypicaldcvclopin,couniry! China`sprohlcms! such ascncr,ysccuriiy! cmission
rcduciion! cllicicnircduciion in ioialcncr,yconsumpiion! and localcnvironmcnipolluiion
conirolarcmuch morccomplicaicd ihan ihoscolihcadvanccd counirics.
Canc/as/an12* Energyresaarcenat/ana//sm /s/ntens/fy/ng.Th/sw///natan/y/mpact
g/aba/energysapp/y/nthefatare! bata/sa g/rer/seta reg/ana/energyresaarcesd/spates
and geapa//t/ca/canf//cts.
Iromihcnaiionalizaiion oloilrcsourccshycouniricsin Laiin Amcricain ihc1930sio
canccllaiion ormodilicaiion ol$oilconccssionarya,rccmcni% hyIran! Iraq! Lihyaand Saudi
Arahiain an clloriiorid inicrnaiionaloilcompanics0 conirolon ihciroilrcsourccsin ihc
5 3
1950s! cncr,yrcsourccnaiionalismin ihclasihundrcd ycarshascvolvcd lromland ioihcsca
and iopolarrc,ionsascouniricssiru,,lcwiih ihcircncr,ysccuriiyand aiicmpiioproicciihcir
sovcrci,niyand icrriiorialinic,riiy.1hcmain lcaiurcsincludc* proicciion olsovcrci,niyol
ihcircncr,yrcsourccshyallcouniricsand rc,ions! dispuicson claimsolrcsourcclicldsand
,copoliiicalconllicisinhcriicd lromihcpasi.
In icrmsolland rcsourccs! in 2006! \cnczuclaand Boliviaannounccd ihcrciurn io
naiionalizaiion oloilrcsourccs.In Au,usi! 2006! ihcBussian ,ovcrnmcniannounccd ihc
hankrupicyolYukos! indicaiin,ihcsiariolrc-naiionalizaiion olihcBussian oilindusiry.
Sincc2012! rcsourccnaiionalismhasinicnsilicd.Boliviahasclaimcd owncrship ol1IE! an
alliliaicolSpanish BEE( Ar,cniinahasiakcn ovcrYPIan alliliaicolSpanish company
Bcpsolihclar,csioilcompanyin Ar,cniina( Indoncsiahasiniroduccd ncwrc,ulaiionson
invcsimcniin mincsand mincralcxpori! and adopicd hi,hcriaxcson mincralcxpori.Iihas
alsorcallirmcd ihailorci,n invcsiorsmusiiranslcrailcasi51% olihcirsharcsioihc
,ovcrnmcniorlocalparincrswiihin 5 io10 ycarsalicrcommcnccmcniolopcraiions.Iorci,n
cnicrpriscscan onlyhold undcr49% olihcioialsharcs( Hon,oliahasannounccd iisdraliol
ncwlorci,n invcsimcnihill! includin,aprovision ihaiHon,oliamusihold 51% olihc
$siraic,icasscis%! lirsiolwhich isnaiuralrcsourccs.Alicraproiracicd dchaic! Ausiraliawill
implcmcniacarhon iaxand alcasciaxon cncr,yrcsourccs.Boih iaxcs! which arcprimarily
aimcd aiminin,and cncr,ycompanics! wcrconcchoycoiicd hy,ianicompanicsol,lohal
minin,indusiry.
In icrmsololl-shorcrcsourccs! naiionalismin EasiAsiaand Souih Asiaarcolicn inicriwincd
wiih icrrorismand admiraliydispuics.Aiihcccnircololl-shorcrcsourccnaiionalismisihc
sccuriiyolrcsourcccxploraiion! oll-shorcoiland L^Ciransporiaiion! cic.Bccauscnaiional
sovcrci,niyisinvolvcd! dispuicsin rcsourcccxploraiion arcusuallylicrccrand hard iohc
solvcd hydiplomaiiccompromiscs.In ordcrioavoid sccuriiyihrcaisand had wcaihcr! ships
maydcviaicdozcnsolkilomcicrslaicrallylromihcori,inalrouics! cxccpilorwhcn ihcynccd
ioiransiimajorinicrnaiionalchokcpoinissuch asHalacca! ihcSiraiiolHormuz! SuczCanal
and Bahclmandch.Un ihcoihcrhand! oiland ,asrcsourccsolicn havclixcd locaiion and
limiicd volumc.Viih hordcrdcmarcaiion yciiohcrcsolvcd! cxploraiion lromhoih sidcscan
olicn lcad iosovcrci,niyinlrin,cmcniand rcsourccihcli.Iispuicson oll-shorcrcsourccscxisi
in manyplaccsacrossihcworld! such asSunrisc,aslicld lriciionshciwccn Ausiralia`s
VoodsidcEncr,yand 1imor-Lcsic,ovcrnmcni! icnsionshciwccn An,olaand ihcBcpuhlicol
Con,oon cxplorin,oll-shorcoilin Cahinda! and illc,aloll-shorcdrillin,hyscvcralsouihcasi
Asian couniricsin disrc,ard olChina`ssovcrci,niy.
In icrmsolrcsourccsaiPolarBc,ions! ihcArciichashccomcaconicniiousplaccasii
6 3
coniainsapproximaicly13 pcrccniolihcworldsundiscovcrcd convcniionaloilrcsourccsand
ahoui30 pcrccnioliisundiscovcrcd convcniionalnaiural,asrcsourccsaccordin,ioihc
csiimaicshyihcIniicd SiaicsCcolo,icalSurvcy.Couniricssuch asI.S.! Canada! Bussia
and ^orwayhavcalrcadyclaimcd sovcrci,niyovcrihcArciic.Bussiaand ihcI.S.siaricd oil
cxploraiionsihcrcascarlyas1962 and 1967.Viih ihcdcvclopmcnioloiland ,ascxploraiion
icchnolo,yundcrcold wcaihcr! ihcArciicwilllorsurchccomcamajorhaiilc,round.
.Policy Recommendations
Recammendat/an1* Ch/na shaa/d refarmthecarrentenergymanagementsystemfram
$sapp/y-ar/ented% ta $demand-ar/ented%.
Ioralon,iimc! inllucnccd hyihcplanncd cconomysysicm! China`scncr,ymana,cmcnihas
hccn supply-oricnicd and ihcrcsponsihiliiicsolcncr,yauihoriiicsin ihc,ovcrnmcnihavc
simplyhccn $iocnsurccncr,ysupplyand iosupporicconomicdcvclopmcni%.Aiihaiiimc!
cncr,yconscrvaiion and cmission rcduciion wasin apassivcmodcolcnd-ol-pipc
mana,cmcni.In such aschcmc! drivcn hyihccconomicincriialormanyycars! ihcdcmand-
sidccncr,yconsumpiion hashccn incrcasin,ioolasi.Evcn ihcpolicyol$Encr,yConscrvaiion
and Emission Bcduciion% & ECEB' issiillnoicllcciivcand compulsorycnou,h! hccausc
ECEBisarclaiivcindcxwiih limiicd lorccinsicad olari,id indcx.1hcrclorc! China`scncr,y
consumpiion hashccn incrcasin,rclcnilcsslywiihouianylimiiaiion loralon,iimc.In ihc
luiurc! Chinawilllaccamorcscrioussiiuaiion olcncr,ysupplyhoiilcncck and incrcasin,
dcpcndcnccon ihcimporisolcoal! oiland naiural,as.1hc12
ih
IivcYcarPlan Pcriod isan
imporianipcriod olsiraic,icopporiuniiicslorihciranslormaiion olihccconomic,rowih modc!
and iiiscrucialioiranslorm ihccncr,ymana,cmcnimodcllrom $ supply-oricnicd% io
$dcmand-oricnicd%.1hciranslormaiion willcxcrian cllcciivcrcvcrscd inllucnccon cconomy
soasiosupporiihc$ dccclcraiin,% and $ siruciuraladjusimcni% olChina`scconomyin ihc
12
ih
IivcYcarPlan pcriod.1ohcmorcspccilic! ihclollowin,iasksshould hcdonc.Iirsily!
ihcChincscCovcrnmcnishould rclormand chan,cinicrnallunciions! and paymorcaiicniion
ioihcmana,cmcniolcncr,ydcmand.1hclunciionsol^aiionalEncr,yAdminisiraiion should
hccxicndcd hyincrcasin,iisrcsponsihiliiyolcncr,ydcmand mana,cmcni.1hcIcparimcniol
BcsourccsConscrvaiion and EnvironmcniProicciion olihc^aiionalIcvclopmcniand Bclorm
Commission! and ihcIcparimcniolEncr,yConscrvaiion and ComprchcnsivcApplicaiion ol
ihcHinisiryolIndusiryand Inlormaiion 1cchnolo,yshould hchoih incorporaicd inioihc
^aiionalEncr,yAdminisiraiion! which should alicrwardshcup,radcd ioan Encr,yHinisiry.
1hcEncr,yHinisiryshould hcrcsponsihlclorihcwholccncr,yscciorhyinic,raiin,ihc
7 3
upsircamand downsircamindusiricssoihaisupplyand dcmand can hcwcllhalanccd.In ihis
way! ihcapprovalproccssollar,c-scalccncr,yprojcciswillhcmorcscicncc-hascd and
lcasihlc! and cncr,ysiaiisiicsand dcmand projcciion willalsohcmorcsiandardizcd!
scicniilicand praciical.Sccondly! cncr,ydcmand mana,cmcnishould hcimprovcd hy
conirollin,ioialcncr,yconsumpiion aiihclocallcvcl.Un onchand! Chinashould improvc
ihclunciionsollocalcncr,yauihoriiicshyincorporaiin,ihclocalcncr,yconscrvaiion
dcparimcnisinioihcm.1hcauihoriiicsshould conirolioialcncr,yconsumpiion.^aiional
cncr,yauihoriiicsshould insirucilocalauihoriiicson siaiisiicsand mcasurcmcniolioial
cncr,yconsumpiion.Bascd on ihai! ihcycan mana,cioachicvcihcioialvolumcconirol,oals
accordin,iorclcvanirc,ulaiions.Un ihcoihcrhand! localcncr,yauihoriiicsshould ,radually
csiahlish asysicmolioialcncr,ysiaiisiicsand accouniin,soasiohalancccncr,ysupplyand
dcmand and iomakciimorcscicniilicand praciical.1hirdly! ioialcncr,yconsumpiion should
hcconirollcd hyincrcasin,non-lossilcncr,ysupply.1hckcyioconirolioialcncr,y
consumpiion isioconirolihcconsumpiion ollossillucls! cspcciallycoaland oil.1hcrclorc!
hyincrcasin,ihcsupplyolnon-lossilcncr,y! ioialcncr,yconsumpiion willhckcpiundcr
conirol.1ohcmorcspccilic! ihc,ovcrnmcnishould implcmcniallkindsollinancialand iax
policicsllcxihlyioincrcascnon-lossilcncr,ysupplyaccordin,iolocalcharacicrisiics.
Recammendat/an2* Ch/na shaa/d mareawayframthe/dea afensar/ng theenergysapp/y
farsaatheastcaasta/reg/anspr/mar//ythraaghthetranspartat/anafcaa/framtheNarth
ta theSaathand framtheWestta theEastand bya/tra-h/ghra/tagetransm/ss/an&UHV
transm/ss/an'.Instead! Ch/na shaa/d /ncreaseenergy/mpartsta ba/ancesapp/yand
demand aftheEastand theWest! sa asta redacethepressareantranspartat/anand ta
pratectenr/ranment.
In China! allihcprohlcmscauscd hycoalcan hoildown ioihcdiscrcpancyhciwccn ihc
siron,dcmand in ihcsouihcasicoasialrc,ion and ihclar,couipuiin ihc^orihwcsi.Uncolihc
soluiionsisiorcduccihccoaliransporicd lromihc^orih ioihcSouih and lromihcVcsiioihc
Easi! and ioincrcasccoalimporiin souihcasicoasialrc,ion.1hcidcaihaicoalmusihcscll-
sullicicnishould hcchan,cd.Spccilicmcihodsarcaslollows.Iirsily! ihcincrcasin,dcmand
in souihcasicoasialrc,ion should hcmcihyimporis.1hcprimaryprojcciion hasshown ihai
China`scoaldcmand willamouniio3.8 hillion ionshy2015.Bascd on ihcassumpiion ihai
souihcasicoasialrc,ion accounislor23% olioialdcmand! ihccoalconsumpiion olsouihcasi
coasialrc,ion willincrcascio880 million ionshy2015 and incrcmcnialdcmand & i.c.ihc
volumcolcoalimpori' willhcahoui300 million ions.Assumin,ihaiihccoalimporisol
souihcasicoasialrc,ion isahoui70% olioial! Chinawillimporialio,cihcr430 million ions
8 3
hy2015 ahoui11.3% olihcioialcoalconsumpiion.1hcrclorc ilsouihcasicoasialrc,ion
impori300 million ionsolcoal iiwillnoionlymcciiisdcmand aiarclaiivclylow
cnvironmcnialcosihccauscihcdama,cioihcccosysicmin VcsiChinain icrmsolproducin,
300 million ionsolcoalwillhcavoidcd huialsorclicvcihcprcssurcon iransporiaiion and
mainiain China`skcyand advania,cousposiiion in ihc,lohalcoalmarkci.Sccondly ihc
wcsicrn rc,ion should adopiihccncr,ysiraic,icsolcomhinin,cnvironmcni-lricndly
dcvclopmcniand modcraicdcvclopmcniolcoalchcmicalindusiricsaccordin,iolocal
condiiions.Ilihccoalincrcmcnialdcmand olsouihcasicoasialrc,ion iscomplciclymcihy
impori iiwill,rcailyrcducccoalminin,inicnsiiyolihcwcsirc,ion proicciihcwcsicrn
ccosysicmand miii,aicrailiransporiaiion prcssurc.Aiihcsamciimc ihcmcihod willprovidc
ihcwcsirc,ion wiih modcraicspacciodcvclop coalchcmicalindusirywiih rclaiivclyhi,h
addcd valucaccordin,iomarkcidcmand and localcondiiions.Vhaishould hcpoinicd ouiis
ihaircducin,coalproduciion in ihcwcsirc,ion willnoiposcnc,aiivcinllucnccon ihcprolii
olihccoalindusiryhccauscolrclaiivclylowproduciion cosiand hi,h proliiin mosiVcsi
rc,ions.Horcimporianily ihismcihod ishclplullorihcsusiainahlcdcvclopmcniolihcwholc
wcsirc,ion.Iican chan,cihcprcscnisiiuaiion ihaisomcrc,ionsrclymainlyon cncr,y
rcsourccsioincrcascCIP and ihus localcconomyand ihcsociciycan cnicramorcsound
and harmoniousdcvclopmcnipaih.1hirdly incrcasin,L^Cimporiswillnoionlymiii,aicihc
prcssurcon cncr,ysupplyin souihcasicoasialrc,ion huialsopromoicChina`ssiaiusin ihc
Asian-PacilicL^Cmarkci.Evcn wiih ihclasiincrcascand si,nilicanipcrccnia,colL^C
impori Chinasiillhasliiilcpricin,powcrin ihcAsian-PacilicL^Cmarkci.Aiprcscni ihc
Asian-PacilicL^Cmarkciisdominaicd hy|apan whoscconiracipriccdcicrmincsihcmarkci
pricc.Indcrsuch circumsianccs pricin,powcriscriiical.Asihclar,csicouniryin Asian-
Pacilicrc,ion China`ssouihcasicoasialrc,ion islacin,ihcchallcn,colcncr,yshoria,c.1his
challcn,cisvcrysimilario|apan and Korca sinccChina`sL^Cdcmand mainlycomcslrom
ihccoasialrc,ion aswcll.1hcrclorc Chinashould modcraiclylimiiihcuscolcoalin ihai
arca hccauscollimiicd arcasiohuild coallircd powcr,cncraiion planis sirici
cnvironmcnialproicciion rc,ulaiions dcnscpopulaiion and rclaiivclydcvclopcd cconomy
cic. and insicad should incrcascL^Cimporis.Iourihly ihchuildin,ollar,c-scalcand
lon,-disianccIH\iransmission sysicmshould hcavoidcd.1hccosiand powcrlossollon,-
disianccIH\iransmission sysicm arcircmcndous.In addiiion ihiskind olsysicm is
rclaiivclylra,ilc.Unccan accidcnihappcns widcsprcad powcrouia,cand powcrsurpluswill
cocxisi causin,immcnscdama,cioihccasicrn and ihcwcsicrn rc,ions.Ilallihccouniry`s
,ridsarcconnccicd hyIH\iransmission lincs ilihclincshrokchccauscolsomcnaiuralor
human incidcni iiwould rcsuliin naiion-widcpowcrouia,c.1hcpoicniialhazard ishu,c.
9 3
1hcrclorc! lon,-disianccIH\iransmission lincsshould noihchuilion alar,cscalcand ihc
powcrsupplyolsouihcasicoasialrc,ion should hcup ioihcrc,ion iiscll.
Recammendat/an3* Thedere/apmentraadmap afCh/na'smatarreh/c/esshaa/d be
redrawn.
In ihcluiurc! oilsccuriiywillsiillhcihclocusolChina`scncr,ysccuriiy.Horcand morc
auiomohilcswilldrivcoilconsumpiion ioincrcasc.1hcrclorc! iiisvcryimporianiiorcihink
and rcdrawihcdcvclopmcniroadmap olChina`smoiorvchiclcs.1hclollowin,su,,csiionsarc
spccilicallyhrou,hiup lorihisissuc.Iirsily! ihcChincsc,ovcrnmcnishould implcmcnimorc
siricisiandardson luclcconomy.Alihou,h Chinahassiaricd ioimplcmcniasciolpolicics!
rc,ulaiionsand siandardsiorcsiricimoiorluclsconsumpiion! iiissiilllarlromwhaiis
rcquircd.Chincscpcoplcdonoihavcasiron,scnscoloilconscrvaiion yci! wiih pcoplcsiill
purchasin,luxurycarsihaiconsumcmorcoiland cmiimorciail,as.Uilwasia,crcmains
scrious.Chinashould ihcrclorcsciup orrcncwsiandardslorallkindsolcars! li,hi-duiy
irucksand hcavy-duiyiruckscvcry2 or3 ycarsiopromoicoilconscrvaiion.Sccondly!
rcplacin,oilwiih ,asin moiorcarsand oihcrvchiclcsincludin,scahorn vchiclcswillhcan
imporianidircciion lorluiurccncr,ydcvclopmcni.Alihou,h Chinaisin ihcAsian-Pacilic
naiural,asmarkciwhcrcihcL^Cpriccisquiiccxpcnsivc! naiural,asissiillrclaiivclychcap
comparcd wiih oilolihcsamccalorilicvaluc.Viih domcsiicallyproduccd convcniional,as!
unconvcniional,as! imporicd pipclinc,asand imporicd L^Callcounicd in! Chinasiillhas
rclaiivclylar,cpoicniiallormorcnaiural,assupply.1hcrclorc! in ihclicld olmoiorcarsand
oihcrvchiclcsincludin,scahorn vchiclcs! Chinashould quickcn ioihcpaccolrcscarch and
dcvclopmcniolpurc-,asand ,as-oilhyhrid moioricchnolo,ics! and iorcplaccoilwiih various
,ascs&such asnaiural,as! L^Cand C^C! cic' assoon aspossihlc! cspcciallyihosc
vchiclcswiih lar,cpoicniialsuch ashuscsand iaxis! lon,-disianccdicscl-lircd iransporiaiion
vchiclcsand oll-shorcshippin,vcsscls.1hirdly! Chinashould coniinuciolay,rcai
imporianccon dcvclopin,ncwcncr,yicchnolo,ics.Alihou,h ihcicchnolo,icsolncwcncr,y
lucls! such asclcciricvchiclcs! luclccllsand hydro,cn powcrcd vchiclcs! arcsiillcxpcnsivc
and soihcdcvclopmcnispccd israihcrslow! ihcyarcimprovin,cvcryycar.Iorihisrcason!
Chinashould cmphasizclollowin,ihclaicsidcvclopmcniircndsolihcscicchnolo,ics!
supporiin,B&Iaciiviiics! sciiin,up lavorahlcpolicics! and lurihcrcxpandin,ihccovcra,c
olpiloiprojccisin ordcrio,circadylorlar,c-scalccommcrcialapplicaiion olihcsc
icchnolo,icsin ihcluiurc.
Recammendat/an4* Ch/na shaa/d repas/t/an/tsgasmarketand acce/eratemarket-
ar/entat/an.
0 4
Alihou,h Chinaisin ihcAsian-Pacilicmarkciwiih ihchi,hcsiL^C pricc! ihclasi
dcvclopmcniolL^Cin rcccniycarsprovidcsmorcllcxihlcmarkcispacclorallovcrihc
world.Hcncc! Chinanccdsiorcposiiion iisclland accclcraicmarkci-oricniaiion.Iirsily!
Chinashould conirolihcspccd oldcvclopin,nonconvcniional,assuch asshalc,as.Ai
prcscni! ihccxploraiion and dcvclopmcniicchnolo,icsolChina`scoal-hcd mcihancarc
rclaiivclymaiurc! huiihccxploiiaiion olshalc,asisnoiaiallihorou,h and iisrclcvani
minin,condiiionslalllarhchind ihoscolihcI.S..Iorcxamplc* ihcicchnolo,yissiill
immaiurc( iiissiillunccriain whcihcrihcqualiiyolshalc,asissaiislacioryin ordcrihai
shalc,ascan hcproduccd in an cconomicway! ihcicrrcsirialpipclincnciwork in Chinaisnoi
asmaiurcasihaiin ihcI.S.( China`s,comorphiccondiiionsarclarmorccomplicaicd wiih
morchillsand larmland! and ihchydro-lrackin,icchnolo,ylordrillin,shalc,asnccdsloisol
waicrand cvcn scriouslypolluics,roundwaicr.AllihcsclaciorsdcicrmincihaiChina`scosiol
cxploiiin,shalc,aswillhcmuch hi,hcrihan ihaiolihcI.S..1hou,h a,oalhashccn sciup
in ihc$12
ih
IivcYcarPlan lorShalcCas%! ihcrcarcsiillmanyunccriainiics.Vhaiihc
Chincsc,ovcrnmcnican doisiomakccvaluaiionsihailollowihcrcal-iimcdcvclopmcniol
shalc,asand ioconiroliisdcvclopin,spccd.Sccondly! Chinashould accclcraicihc
consiruciion oliisnaiural,aspipclincnciwork and improvcihcpolicicslornaiural,as
consumpiion.Viih lasiurhanizaiion! Chinanccdsmorcand morcnaiural,as.Yciihcrcarc
manyprohlcms1ihcnaiural,aspipclincnciwork siillla,slarhchind whaiisnccdcd and
inicr-ciiynciworkin,israihcrincomplcic.Allihcschavccxposcd China`sluiurc,assalciyio
,rcaidan,cr.1hcrclorc! Chinanccdsioaccclcraicihcdcvclopmcniolihcnaiural,asmarkci!
io,ivcpcrmission ioihcrc,ionsihaican allord hi,h ,aspriccsioconsumcmorcnaiural,as
and ioapprovcccriain ,as-lircd powcr,cncraiion laciliiyin ihciniiiaiivcsia,colalar,c-scalc
projcciorundcrihccircumsianccsihaiihcpipclincnciwork issiillimmaiurc.Hosiolall! ihc
souihcasicoasialrc,ion which hashciicrcconomiccondiiions! dcnscpopulaiion and hi,h
siandardson cnvironmcniqualiiyshould ,ivcprioriiyioconsumin,naiural,asand rclrain
lromdcvclopin,ncwcoal-lircd powcrplanis.
Recammendat/an5* Ch/na'sreserresystemsfara//! natara/gasand caa/needsta be
strengthened and /mprared.
Aiprcscni! China`scncr,ysiockpilin,issiillin ihciniiialpcriod! havin,noiycilormcd a
complcic! siriciand dciailcd rc,ulaiion sysicm on siock rcsponsihiliiy! rclcasin,and
supcrvision! and on rcsponscsiosupplydcclincand ouia,c.Horcovcr! ihcamounioldillcrcni
kindsolcncr,ysiock issiillraihcrsmalland ihcinicrnaiionalcoopcraiion mcchanismol
cmcr,cncysiock rclcaschasnoiycihccn lullycsiahlishcd.Hcncc! ihclollowin,iasksnccd io
1 4
hcdonc.Iirsily Chinashould lurihcraccclcraicihchuildin,olacomplcicand llcxihlc
siraic,icoilrcscrvcsysicm.IEArcquircsiismcmhcrsiohold oilsiockscquivalcniioailcasi
90 daysolnciimporisloroilsccuriiy.Howcvcr ihcrcissiillahu,c,ap hciwccn China`soil
siock and ihisrcquircmcni.AsChina`ssiraic,icoilrcscrvcand commcrcialoilsiock arcvcry
limiicd cxiracllorisarcnccdcd ioaccclcraicihcirhuildup.Horcovcr Chinanccdsio
,raduallycsiahlish iisown oilsiock laciliiicsand lcarn ihccxpcricnccslromIEAmcmhcrs so
asiohuild acomplcicmana,cmcnisysicmlorcommcrcialopcraiion salciysupcrvision
volumcchan,cmoniiorin,and cmcr,cncyrclcasin,olcrudcoiland producioilsiocks.China
should alsodcvclop coopcraiion wiih IEAand iismcmhcrssoasiocllcciivclyrcspond ioihc
pricclluciuaiion and possihlcoilsupplyouia,cin ihcluiurc.^ow iorcsolvcihcsiruciural
conllicihciwccn supplyand dcmand olcrudcoiland producioil Chinashould modcraicly
incrcascihcpcrccnia,coldicsclsiock in commcrcialoilsiock in ordcriocopcwiih ihc
lrcqucnisupplyicnsionsin China`sdicsclmarkci.Sccondly anaiional-widc salcsupply
sysicmolnaiural,asshould hccsiahlishcd.Chinahassciup adcvclopmcniplan lor
undcr,round naiural,assiora,cand huilialcw,assiora,cs huiasacounirywiih lar,c
poicniialdcmand ChinanccdsiodrawusclulcxpcricncclromIEAmcmhcrcouniricsand
cxplorcihcpossihiliiyolcorporaiizcd opcraiion modc.Icplcicd oiland ,aslicldsshould hc
dcvclopcd lirsi and ihcn oihcrlcasihlcmcansol,assiora,c.Covcrnmcnisshould puimorc
clloriiniosciiin,up rclcvanirulcsand rc,ulaiionsand improvin,icchnolo,icalhackup ol,as
siora,cs.Accordin,ioihcsiraic,icplansollinkin,China`snaiural,aswiih ihcmarkciand
makin,uscolnaiural,asin ovcrscasmarkcis Chinashould noionlysicp up iohuild lour
rc,ional,assiora,cnciworksi.c.ihc^orihcasi ihcmiddlcand lowcrrcachcsolYan,izc
Bivcr ihc^orih Chinaand ihcPcarlBivcrIclia huialsorcscarch ,assiora,cin ^orihwcsi
Chinaasan imporiani,uaraniccolVcsi-Easinaiural,asiransmission llcxihlcimpori
allocaiion and ovcrallsalciyolihcnaiion-widc,assupplysysicm.1hus ihcpipclinc,asand
L^Clromdomcsiicand ovcrscasmarkciwilllorman or,anicsiock nciwork sysicm cllcciivcly
conncciin,ihc,aspipclincnciworksolmajor,asconsumin,provinccs ciiicsand iowns.
Iurihcrmorc Chinashould alsosciup ,asnciworkin,icchnolo,icalsiandardsand rc,ulaiions
lordillcrcni,ascsand qualiiicsand sciup spccilicicchnolo,icaland lc,alrcquircmcnislor
opcraiorsand coniraciorsin ihcluiurc in ordcriocnsurcihcsalciyolChina`snaiural,as
supply.1hirdly Chinashould csiahlish anaiion-widccoalsiock sysicm ihaiconnccis
comprchcnsivclyihcSouihcasi ihcCcniralChina ihc^orihcasiand ihc^orihwcsi.1hc
hasiccharacicrisiicsolChina`scoaliransporiaiion arcioiransporicoallromihc^orih ioihc
Souih and lromihcVcsiioihcEasi.Howcvcr lon,-disianccrailwayiransporiaiion capaciiy
isnoisullicicni.1haiiswhyChinahasiohuild and improvciiscoalsiock sysicmin ordcrio
2 4
hciicrrcspond iocmcr,cncicsand cnsurcsupplysalciy.1hc12
ih
IivcYcarPlan hascxpliciily
dclincd ihcluiurcdcvclopmcniolcoalsiock.In ihispcriod! Chinawillspccd up naiionalcoal
cmcr,cncysiock in coasialand rivcr-sidcharhors! in CcniralChinaand in ^orihwcsi! and
csiahlish and improvcihcopcraiion and mana,cmcnisysicmio,uaraniccsullicicnisiock!
propcrsupcrvision and consumpiion cllicicncy.Aiprcscni! ihcplannin,and siic-sclcciion ol
coalsiock havchccn iniiiaicd in ihcihrcc^orihcasicrn provinccs! Bcijin,-1ianjin and Hchci
Provincc! EasiChinaCoasialBc,ion! Souih ChinaCoasialBc,ion and SouihwcsiInland.Iiis
siron,lyrccommcndcd ihaiihcsiock huildin,should caicrlorlocalcondiiions! ihaiis! siocks
in dillcrcnirc,ionswillhavcdillcrcnilunciions.1hcsiock huildin,scalcin souihcasicoasial
rc,ion should hcihclar,csiwhcrcihcovcrallscalcisailcasi2 iimcsolioiallocal
consumpiion olihcrmalcoal.1hcsccond lar,csiscalcshould hcin CcniralChinaand
^orihcasiBc,ion whcrcihcovcrallhuildin,scalcisailcasicqualioioiallocalconsumpiion ol
ihcrmalcoal.In ihc^orihwcsiBc,ion! iranslcrsiaiionsshould hcsciup alon,ihcrailways
whoscscalcsand lunciionsarccapahlcolsupplyin,railwayiransporiaiion and localpowcr
planis.Iiisalsosiron,lyrccommcndcd ihaiihcdcparimcnisconccrncd should doamorc
dciailcd rcscarch on ihis.
Recammendat/an6* TheCh/neseenergypr/c/ng mechan/smshaa/d befarther/mprared.
1hc12
ih
IivcYcarPlan pcriod isan imporianiphasclor,lohalcconomicrccovcryand
iranslormaiion.Indcrihcinllucnccolcconomicdowniurn! ihcpriccsolrawmaicrials! such
ascncr,ypricc! havclimiicd spacclorlurihcrincrcasc.1hisprovidcsChinawiih a,ood
opporiuniiyiorclormihccncr,ypricin,mcchanism.AsChinaisincrcasin,lydcpcndcnion
imporisolcoal! oiland naiural,as! cncr,ypriccsshould hcin lincwiih ihc,lohalmarkci.
1hcrclorc! ihclollowin,iasksnccd iohcdonc.Iirsily! Chinashould csiahlish a,lohalcoal
luiurcsiradin,ccnicrassoon aspossihlc.1hcmajorcoalproducisiradcd in inicrnaiionaland
domcsiicmarkcisarcsicamcoaland cokin,coal.Sicamcoalisin hi,h dcmand in ihccasi
cosialrc,ion olChina! huiihcdcmand can hardlyhcmcilorihciransporiaiion hoiilcncck.
1hcrclorc! Chinashould considcrcsiahlishin,a,lohalcoalluiurcsiradin,ccnicrin Shan,hai
orCuan,don,whcrcluiurcsolsicamcoaland cokin,coalarciradcd.1hiscould cncoura,c
lairiradcshciwccn inicrnaiionaland domcsiiccoalsupplicrsand huycrslromihccasirc,ion!
and alsocncoura,choih sidcsiosi,n lon,-icrmsupplya,rccmcnis.1hisisihcluiurcdircciion
lorChincsccoalpricin,rclorm.Sccondly! Chinashould lurihcrshoricn ihcpriccadjusimcnis
cyclcolproducioiland puilorih ihcrclormplan lorlucliaxassoon aspossihlc.China`soil
pricchashccn inic,raicd wiih ihc,lohalmarkci! huiihconlyprohlcmisihaiihcadjusimcni
cyclcisioolon,.1hcrclorc! ihcChincsc,ovcrnmcnimaycsiahlish asysicmlor$VccklyUil
3 4
HarkciEvaluaiion%! soihaiihcpriccadjusimcnicyclcwillhcshoricncd ioawcck or10
days.1hccvaluaiion rcsuliswillalsohcpuion ihc,ovcrnmcniwchsiic.1ohcmorcspccilic!
ihc$ VccklyUilHarkciEvaluaiion % can hcjoinilycarricd ouihy,ovcrnmcniand
indcpcndcnircscarch insiiiuicsasihcihird-pariy.Iiismainlyhascd on ihc,lohaloilmarkci
inlormaiion and China`soilimporiinlormaiion.Accordin,ioihccvaluaiion! ihc,ovcrnmcni
willdccidcwhcihcrioadjusioilpriccornoiand ihcran,colpriccadjusimcni.1hirdly! ihc
markci-drivcn rclormolnaiural,aspriccshould hclurihcrpushcd lorward.In ordcriosciup
rcasonahlcpriccrclaiionshciwccn naiural,asand alicrnaiivccncr,ics! allocaicnaiural,as
propcrlyand promoic,asconscrvaiion! ihc^aiionalIcvclopmcniand BclormCommission
issucd arc,ulaiion on Icccmhcr27! 2011 &^IBCPricc.2011/ ^o.3033' ihaisiipulaics
ihaipiloiprojccisiorclormnaiural,aspricin,mcchanismwould hccarricd ouiin Cuan,don,
and Cuan,xi.Iiwould chan,cihccurrcnicosi-pluspricin,ioihcpricin,accordin,ioncihack
markcivaluc.Iurin,ihc12
ih
IivcYcarPlan pcriod! iiisrccommcndcd iocxpand ihc
covcra,colihispiloiprojcciand iolurihcrrclormnaiural,aspricin,mcchanismsoihaihy
ihccnd ol12
ih
IivcYcarPlan pcriod naiural,aspricin,can hclullymarkci-drivcn.
Recammendat/an7* Emerg/ng ecanam/esand dere/ap/ng caantr/esshaa/d p/ayanact/re
ra/e/ng/aba/energygarernance.
Icvclopcd couniricsshould coopcraicwiih dcvclopin,couniricsin amorcaciivcand inclusivc
manncr.1hisiscspcciallyiruclor,lohalinlormaiion sharin,.Viih opcn! iransparcni!
ohjcciivcand accuraicinlormaiion! IEAshould ,ivclullplayioiisadvania,csand scrvcihc
wholcworld! noijusiiismcmhcrcounirics.Unlyin ihiswaycan ihcIEApuhlicaiions
sircn,ihcn iisinllucnccon dcvclopin,couniricsand cnhanccihcmuiualundcrsiandin,and
coopcraiion hciwccn IEAand dcvclopin,counirics.Currcnily! arcasolcoopcraiion siilllocus
on cncr,ysccuriiy! climaicchan,c! cncr,yicchnolo,y&c.,.CCS'! cic.Aiihcsamciimc!
Chinashould aciivclycoopcraicwiih oihcrinicrnaiionalcncr,yor,anizaiions.Howcvcr! China
willnoiand should noijoin IEAwhich isdominaicd hyUECIcounirics.Insicad! China
should improvciisposiiion in ,lohalcncr,y,ovcrnancchyjoinin,oihcrdcvclopin,counirics
ioimprovcihcanalyiicalsysicmolcncr,ysiaiisiics.
Recammendat/an8* ere/aped caantr/esshaa/d shawmareanderstand/ng and ta/erance
ta dere/ap/ng caantr/es/ncap/ng w/thg/aba/c//matechange/ssaes.
1hcInicrnaiionalcommuniiyshould showlullundcrsiandin,olihcrclaiivclylasi,rowin,
cncr,ydcmand in dcvclopin,counirics! cspcciallyihosccmcr,in,cconomics.Hosidcvclopin,
couniricshavcunlavorahlcnaiuralcondiiions& such asdrou,hi! harsh climaic! lra,ilc
ccosysicm! hcavypolluiion! limiicd cncr,yrcsourccs! cic.'! whilcmosidcvclopcd counirics
4 4
cnjoycomloriahlcnaiuralcondiiions&such assmallicmpcraiurcdillcrcnccsallycarround and
plcniilulrainlallin Europc! lcriilclandsand ahundanicncr,yrcsourccsin ^orih Amcrica'.
In addiiion! dcvclopin,couniricsarcla,,in,hchind in advanccd icchnolo,ics.1hcrclorc! ii
cosismorclorihcdcvclopin,couniricsiodcvclop ihcmsclvcsihan ihailordcvclopcd
counirics.Aparilromihai! dcvclopcd couniricsonlyhavciocopcwiih ihcchallcn,colclimaic
chan,cwhilcdcvclopin,couniricshavcioiacklcihcprohlcmsollocalpolluiion and ccolo,ical
dama,caiihcsamciimc.Indcrihcsccircumsianccs! aiihcsamciimcassirivin,lorihc
survivaland dcvclopmcniolihcirown pcoplc! dcvclopin,couniricsmusialso,ivcprioriiyio
solvin,ihcprohlcmsollocalccolo,icaldama,c! cnvironmcnialpolluiion and icchnolo,y
pro,rcss.Asihclar,csidcvclopin,counirylocaicd in Asia! whcrccncr,yrcsourccsarcmosi
cxpcnsivcand scarcc! Chinaispayin,morcand morclorcncr,yrcsourccsloriispcoplc`s
survivaland dcvclopmcniwhilchavin,ioconsumccoalasihchasiccncr,yrcsourcc.
Recammendat/an9* TheInternat/ana/camman/tyshaa/d ba//d a safeenr/ranmentfar
energymarketta ensareg/aba/energysecar/ty.
In ihclon,run! cncr,yimporicrsshould iakccllcciivcmcansioconirolihc,rowih raicol
,lohalcncr,ydcmand hysavin,cncr,yand incrcasin,non-lossilcncr,yrcsourccs.Encr,y
produccrsshould iakcaciionsioahandon cncr,ynaiionalism! iocxpand and aiiraci
invcsimcni! and ioadopiadvanccd cxploiiaiion icchnolo,y.Vhilccnsurin,susiaincd and
sullicicnicncr,ysupply! cncr,yproduccrsshould also,raduallyrid ihcirdcpcndcncyon
sin,lcrcsourccs! rcduccuncmploymcni! and hrid,cihcincomc,ap! soasioavoid socialand
poliiicalunrcsi.In ihcshoriicrm! as,lohalcncr,yiradcispriccd hyI.S.dollarand ihc
commodiiyiradin,sysicm! rcprcscnicd hyoil! isconirollcd hydcvclopcd counirics!
dcvclopcd couniricsshould lcad and coopcraicwiih ihcdcvclopin,couniricsiorcinlorccihc
rc,ulaiion olcommodiiyiradin,! soasioprcvcnisiron,linancialaiirihuicoloillrom
impaciin,and unsciilin,ihcmarkcicquilihriumand inicrnaiionaloilpricc.In addiiion!
a,ainsiihchack,round olmulii-polarizaiion! pcaccand dcvclopmcnircmain ihcihcmcolihc
iimcs.Un ihcprcmiscoljoinianii-icrrorismand cllorislorihcsalciyolpuhliccncr,ylaciliiics
and iransporirouics! allcouniricsand rc,ionsshould rcspccicach oihcr`ssovcrci,niyand
cmploypcacclulialksiosciilcdispuicsand conllicis! and avoid miliiaryallianccsand rc,ional
miliiaryihrcai.In ihisway! couniricsand rc,ionswillrcduccmisundcrsiandin,and suspicions
iocach oihcr&lorcxamplc! ^A1U`s,uidcd missilcdclcnscsysicmhashccn posin,aihrcaiio
Bussiaand lcadin,ioascricsolnc,aiivccllccis'.1hcinicrnaiionalcommuniiyshould crcaic
asccurc,copoliiicalcnvironmcnilorihc,lohalcncr,ymarkci.
Recammendat/an10* Inrespectafenergytechna/ag/es! a//caantr/esshaa/d grasp the
5 4
appartan/t/esbraaghtbyg/aba/changesand rera/at/anta extend caaperat/an/na//f/e/ds.
Iirsily ihckcyioihcuiilizaiion olon-shorcconvcniionallossilluclsisiodcvclop ihcclcan
hi,h-cllicicnicoaliranslormaiion icchnolo,icsaswcllasvariouscncr,yconscrvaiion and
cmission rcduciion icchnolo,ics.Sccondly ihckcyolunconvcniionaloiland ,asdcvclopmcni
isihccxploraiion and dcvclopmcniicchnolo,icsolon-shorcshalc,as coal-hcd mcihanc
shalcoil oilsand ii,hi,as aswcllasoll-shorcoil,asrcsourccs.1hirdly in ihcuscol
ncwcncr,yand rcncwahlccncr,y couniricsshould makcjoinicllorisiorcscarch and dcvclop
haiicryicchnolo,icslorclcciricvchiclcsiorcducchaiicrics`cosiand wci,hiand ioprolon,
ihcirscrvicclilc icchnolo,icsihaican lurihcrlowcrihccosiolrcncwahlccncr,ysuch as
wind and solarpowcr smari,rid icchnolo,icsand ,rid-conncciion icchnolo,icsolrcncwahlc
cncr,y salcand rcliahlcnuclcarcncr,yicchnolo,ics and commcrcializcd CCS icchnolo,ics
cic.Considcrin,mosiadvanccd cncr,yicchnolo,icsarcconirollcd hydcvclopcd counirics ihc
inicrnaiionalcommuniiyshould rc-cvaluaicihcimporianccolicchnolo,yiranslcrin ihc,lohal
cncr,yrcvoluiion.Vidcruscoladvanccd cncr,yicchnolo,icscan incrcaschoih ihc,lohal
cncr,ysupplyand cncr,ycllicicncy soasiopopularizclow-carhon icchnolo,yand io
accclcraicihccomin,olihccraolnon-lossillucl.1hcrclorc undcrihclramcwork olihc
Iniicd ^aiionsorC20 ihcinicrnaiionalcommuniiyshould huild a,lohalmcchanismol
sharin,advanccd icchnolo,ics.1hismayaid dcvclopin,counirics includin,ihosclcasi
dcvclopcd counirics ioacccssihcadvanccd cncr,yicchnolo,ics and ihcwholcworld io
achicvcsusiainahlccncr,ydcvclopmcni.
ByHanWenkeand Yang Yafeng
6 4