0

MINSOUTH: FLUJOS DE CAJA ECONMICO - FINANCIERO

3
4
5

Ventas en unidades
Precio
(+) Ventas en S/.
(-) C. Fabric. Variables
(-) C. Fabric. Fijos
(-) Gasto Ventas Variables
(-) Gasto de Ventas Fijos
(-) Gasto de Administracin
(-) Depreciacin O. Fsica
(-) Depreciacin Maquinaria
(-) Amortizacin Intangibles
Utilidad antes Impto. renta
(-) Impuesto a la Renta
Utilidad Neta
(+) Depreciacin O. Fsica
(+) Depreciacin Maquinaria
(+) Amortizacin Intangibles
(-) Inversin Terreno
(-) Inversin O. Fisica
(-) Inversin Maquinaria
(-) Inversin Intangibles
(-) Inversin Cap. Trabajo
(+) Valor Residual
FLUJO DE CAJA
ECONMICO
(+) Prstamo
(-) Amortizacin Deuda
(-) Intereses
(+) Escudo Fiscal Intereses

150,000,000
-39,000,000
-10,000,000
-45,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-3,000,000
-6,000,000
-10,000,000

150,000,000
-39,000,000
-10,000,000
-45,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-3,000,000
-6,000,000
-10,000,000

180,000,000
-39,000,000
-10,000,000
-54,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-3,000,000
-6,000,000
-10,000,000

180,000,000
-39,000,000
-10,000,000
-54,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-3,000,000
-6,000,000
-10,000,000

180,000,000
-39,000,000
-10,000,000
-54,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-3,000,000
-6,000,000
-10,000,000

33,500,000
-10,050,000
23,450,000
3,000,000
6,000,000
10,000,000

33,500,000
-10,050,000
23,450,000
3,000,000
6,000,000
10,000,000

54,500,000
-16,350,000
38,150,000
3,000,000
6,000,000
10,000,000

54,500,000
-16,350,000
38,150,000
3,000,000
6,000,000
10,000,000

54,500,000
-16,350,000
38,150,000
3,000,000
6,000,000
10,000,000

-40,000,000
-100,000,000
-60,000,000
-50,000,000
-48,750,000

-298,750,000

-4,500

-23,585,500

42,450,000

42,445,500

57,150,000

57,150,000

33,564,500

-13,116,603
-15,000,000
4,500,000

-14,428,263
-13,688,340
4,106,502

-15,871,089
-12,245,513
3,673,654

-17,458,198
-10,658,405
3,197,521

-19,204,018
-8,912,585
2,673,775

150,000,000

FLUJO DE CAJA
FINANCIERO
WACC
VANE
VANF

-148,750,000
10.22%
152,643,334.615839 TIRE
170,116,836.412119 TIRF

18,833,397

18,435,399
18.128%
23.57%

32,707,051

32,230,919

8,121,673

- FINANCIERO
6

10

252,000,000
-52,080,000
-13,000,000
-75,600,000
-2,000,000
-2,000,000
-5,400,000
-12,000,000
0

252,000,000
-52,080,000
-13,000,000
-75,600,000
-2,000,000
-2,000,000
-5,400,000
-12,000,000
0

252,000,000
-52,080,000
-13,000,000
-75,600,000
-2,000,000
-2,000,000
-5,400,000
-12,000,000
0

252,000,000
-52,080,000
-13,000,000
-75,600,000
-2,000,000
-2,000,000
-5,400,000
-12,000,000
0

252,000,000 1,210,581,976.89402
-52,080,000 -267,700,826.98025
-13,000,000
-67,821,254.19668
-75,600,000 -363,174,593.06821
-2,000,000
-12,173,844.05099
-2,000,000
-10,289,055.36186
-5,400,000
-23,822,393.22987
-12,000,000
-50,425,600.03644
0
-37,695,773.78249

1210581977
-267700827
-67821254.2
-363174593.1
-12173844.05
-10289055.36
-23822393.23
-50425600.04
-37695773.78

89,920,000
-26,976,000
62,944,000
5,400,000
12,000,000
0

89,920,000
-26,976,000
62,944,000
5,400,000
12,000,000
0

89,920,000
-26,976,000
62,944,000
5,400,000
12,000,000
0

89,920,000
-26,976,000
62,944,000
5,400,000
12,000,000
0

89,920,000
-26,976,000
62,944,000
5,400,000
12,000,000
0

377,478,636.18723
-113,243,590.85617
264,235,045.33106
23,822,393.22987
50,425,600.03644
37,695,773.78249
-40,000,000.00000
-100,000,000.00000
-60,000,000.00000
-50,000,000.00000
-68,168,496.19249
215,387,407.00417

377478636.2
-113243590.9
264235045.3
23822393.23
50425600.04
37695773.78
-40000000
-100000000
-60000000
-50000000
-163309744.1
215387407

152,643,334.61584
0.00000
150,000,000.00000
-94,540,624.73354
-54,265,533.52882
16,279,660.05865
0.00000

178256475.2
0
150000000
-94540624.73
-54265533.53
16279660.06
0

237,400,000
80,344,000

80,344,000

80,344,000

80,344,000

317,744,000

-21,124,420
-6,992,183
2,097,655

-23,236,862
-4,879,741
1,463,922

-25,560,548
-2,556,055
766,816

0
0
0

0
0
0

54,325,052

53,691,320

52,994,214

80,344,000

317,744,000

170,116,836.41212

195729977

Sensibilizar Flujo de Caja Financiero, considerando valor residual con

de renta perpetua: K = 10%, depreciacin econmica ao k = 12000,0

o, considerando valor residual con el mtodo

acin econmica ao k = 12000,000

VENTAS
Periodos

Toneladas

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

84,000

2,500

2,500

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

Precio
Total de Ventas

150000000

150,000,000 180,000,000 180,000,000 180,000,000 252,000,000

COSTO DE FABRICACION
Costos Unitarios
Materiales
Mano de Obra
Costos Indirectos
Total

80000 ton
300
250
100
650

> 80000 ton

270 (10% desc.)
250
100
620

Nota: Descuento por Volumen de compra de materiales por encima de 80,000 toneladas
Periodos

Toneladas

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

60,000

84,000

Materiales

300

300

300

300

300

270

Mano de Obra

250

250

250

250

250

250

Costos Indirectos

100

100

100

100

100

100

39,000,000

39,000,000

39,000,000

39,000,000

39,000,000

52,080,000

Total

10

84,000

84,000

84,000

84,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

252,000,000 252,000,000 252,000,000 252,000,000

10

84,000

84,000

84,000

84,000

270

270

270

270

250

250

250

250

100

100

100

100

52,080,000

52,080,000

52,080,000

52,080,000

CUADRO DE DEPRECIACION Y AMORTIZACIONES

Activos
Inversin
Tasa
Terrenos
40,000,000
Obras Fsicas 100,000,000
Ampliacin
80,000,000
Total

-3,000,000

-3,000,000

-3,000,000

-3,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-10,000,000

-10,000,000

-10,000,000

-10,000,000

-19,000,000
-364,000,000

-19,000,000

-19,000,000

-19,000,000

3%

220,000,000

Maquinaria

60,000,000

Ampliacin
Total

60,000,000
120,000,000

10%

Intangibles

50,000,000

20%

Totales

1
0%

390,000,000

Valor de Mercado infraestructura + terreno

Valor de Mercado Maquinaria
Valor de Libros del Terreno
Valor Libros Construccin Inicial
Valor Libros Construccin Ampliacin
Valor Libro Maquinaria Inicial
Valor Libro Maquinaria Amplacin
Utilidad Antes de Impuesto a la Renta
Impuesto a la Renta
Utilidad Despus de Impuesto a la Renta
Valores de Libro (a)
Valor Residual activos fijos

Clculo C

200,000,000
50,000,000
-40,000,000
-70,000,000
-68,000,000
0
-30,000,000
42,000,000
12,600,000
29,400,000
208,000,000
237,400,000

(a)
(a)
(a)
(a)
(a)

Costos Totales Anuales

Costos Totales Mensuales
Capital de Trabajo 6 meses
Aumento capital de Trabajo

-3,000,000

-3,000,000
-2,400,000

-3,000,000
-2,400,000

-3,000,000
-2,400,000

-3,000,000
-2,400,000

-3,000,000
-2,400,000

-30,000,000
-12,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-60,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-6,000,000

-30,000,000

-10,000,000
-19,000,000

-50,000,000
-17,400,000

-17,400,000

Clculo Capital de Trabajo

Costos Totales Anuales

Costos Totales Mensuales
Capital de Trabajo 6 meses
umento capital de Trabajo

10 D. Acumulada

-17,400,000

-17,400,000

-17,400,000 -182,000,000

V. Libros
40,000,000
70,000,000
68,000,000 138,000,000
178,000,000
0
30,000,000
30,000,000
0
208,000,000

Evaluciacion Clasica
VANE
Kd = i ( 1 - t)
i

11%

30%

Kd

Aos

7.70%
Ke = Rf + Rp

Factor de Descuento
Ko

-250,000,000.00

42,450,000.00

42,450,000.00

Rf

0.06

57,150,000.00

Rp

0.08

57,150,000.00

Ke

14%

57,150,000.00

-99,656,000.00

80,344,000.00

80,344,000.00

Ko = Kd*(D/V)+Ke*(P/V)
Deuda (D)

150,000,000.00

Valor total (V)

250,000,000.00

Patrimonio (P)

100,000,000.00

Ko

wacc

Beneficio Neto
Flujo de Caja Economico

60%
40%
100%

80,344,000.00

10

317,744,000.00

10.22%

10.22%
VANF
Aos

Beneficio Neto

Factor Descuento

Flujo de Caja Financiero

Ke

-100,000,000.00

18,833,397.36

18,439,899.28

32,707,051.40

32,230,918.72

31,707,172.78

-125,674,947.76

53,691,319.65

52,994,213.80

80,344,000.00

10

317,744,000.00

TIRE
VAN 2

Aos
0

-250,000,000.00

42,450,000.00

42,450,000.00

57,150,000.00

57,150,000.00

57,150,000.00

-99,656,000.00

80,344,000.00

80,344,000.00

80,344,000.00

VAN1

10

317,744,000.00
17%

> wacc 10.22% se acepta

TIRF
VAN 2

Aos

VAN1

-100,000,000.00

18,833,397.36

18,439,899.28

32,707,051.40

32,230,918.72

31,707,172.78

-125,674,947.76

53,691,319.65

52,994,213.80

80,344,000.00

10

317,744,000.00

25% > wacc 10.22% se acepta

VANE

Aos

Inversion
0

250,000,000.00

1
2
3
4
5
6

180,000,000.00

7
8
9
10
115,501,672.6077210

PR
VANF

Aos

Beneficio Neto
Flujo de Caja Economico
0

-250,000,000.00

42,450,000.00

42,450,000.00

57,150,000.00

57,150,000.00

57,150,000.00

-99,656,000.00

80,344,000.00

80,344,000.00

80,344,000.00

10

317,744,000.00

132,975,174.40

IRE

Aos

Beneficio Neto
Flujo de Caja Economico

-250,000,000.00

-250,000,000.00

38,513,881.33

42,450,000.00

34,942,733.92

42,450,000.00

42,681,042.10

57,150,000.00

38,723,500.37

57,150,000.00

35,132,916.32

57,150,000.00

-55,582,875.59

-99,656,000.00

40,656,557.49

80,344,000.00

36,886,733.34

80,344,000.00

33,466,461.02

80,344,000.00

10

120,080,722.30

317,744,000.00

365,501,672.61

IRE =

1.46
Comentario del Proyecto
VANE

IRF

VANF

-100,000,000.00

TIRE

17,087,096.14

TIRF

15,178,810.23

TIRM

24,426,439.86

B/C

21,838,915.01

IRE

19,491,958.84

IRF

-70,094,876.23

PR

27169474.06
24330173.17
33466461.02
120080722.30

232975174.40
IRF=

2.33

B/C

Costo

Ingreso + Valor Residual

Factor Descuento

Beneficios

Valor Residual + ahorro fiscal

Ko

Actualizados

112,500,000.00

154,500,000.00

111,188,339.74

154,106,501.92

118,745,513.45

183,673,654.03

117,158,404.53

183,197,521.36

115,412,584.72

182,673,775.41

151,672,182.92

254,097,654.88

149,559,740.95

253,463,922.29

147,236,054.79

252,766,816.44

144,680,000.00

252,000,000.00

144,680,000.00

252,000,000.00
1,032,557,678.19
B/C

PR
Factor de Descuento

VANE

Ko
-250,000,000.00
38,513,881.33

-211,486,118.67

34,942,733.92

-176,543,384.75

42,681,042.10

-133,862,342.65

38,723,500.37

-95,138,842.28

35,132,916.32

-60,005,925.96

-55,582,875.59

-115,588,801.55

40,656,557.49

-74,932,244.06

36,886,733.34

-38,045,510.72

33,466,461.02

-4,579,049.69

120,080,722.30

115,501,672.61

PR

TIRM
inversion

v prestamo inv.

Outflows

Inflows

-250,000,000.00

-250,000,000.00

flujos inflows
Factor Descuento
Outflows Ko

79,190,095.00
93,890,095.00
93,890,095.00
93,890,095.00
-100,394,533.25

Inflows Ko
-350,394,533.25

42,450,000.00

-180,000,000.00

flujo modificaso
Factor Descuento

80,344,000.00
131,288,066.00
131,288,066.00
131,288,066.00

131,288,066.00

1,510,865,383.08
flujo modificaso

omentario del Proyecto

115,501,672.61

>0

Rentable

132,975,174.40

>0

Rentable

17%

> Ko 10.22%

Rentable

25%

> Ke 14%

Rentable

3.31

> Ko 14.22%

Rentable

1.04

>1

Rentable

1.46

>1

Rentable

2.33

>1

Rentable

Costos
Actualizados
250,000,000.00
112,500,000.00
111,188,339.74
118,745,513.45
117,158,404.53
115,412,584.72
331,672,182.92
149,559,740.95
147,236,054.79
144,680,000.00
144,680,000.00
989,705,482.33
1.04

ao 9
ao 10
365.00
x

valor futuro inflows

VAN
Outflows
101,911,068.44
172,486,105.88
185,542,167.33
168,338,021.53
152,729,106.81
118,575,530.53
175,794,980.67
159,494,629.53
144,705,706.35

>1 se acepta

-4,579,049.69
115,501,672.61
110,922,622.92
4,579,049.69

VAN
Inflows

dias
meses

VAN Modificado

15.06773905
0.502257968
15.06773905

131,288,066.00
1,510,865,383.08

TIRM

3.31

3.31

>wacc 10.22%

CUADRO: ESTIMACION VALOR RESIDUAL MERCADO

Valor de mercado infraestructura fsica +terreno
Valor de mercado maquinario
(-) Valor libro Terreno (contable)
(-) Valor libro contruccin O. Fsica
(-) Valor libro maquinaria

200,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
-40,000,000.00
-138,000,000.00
-30,000,000.00

Utilidad antes impuesto a la renta

Impuesto a la renta

42,000,000.00
-12,600,000.00

Utilidad despues de impuesto

(+) Valores Libro

29,400,000.00
208,000,000.00

VR =

237,400,000.00

VALOR RESIDUAL

FINANCIAMIENTO DE LA DEUDA
DATOS
Tasa de Inters
Nmero de cuotas
Prstamo

10%
8 aos
150000

Pago

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Saldo Deuda
Intereses
Amortizacin
Servicio de la Deuda
150000000.00
136883397.36
-15000000.00
-13116602.64
-28116602.64
122455134.46
-13688339.74
-14428262.90
-28116602.64
106584045.27
-12245513.45
-15871089.19
-28116602.64
89125847.17
-10658404.53
-17458198.11
-28116602.64
69921829.25
-8912584.72
-19204017.92
-28116602.64
48797409.53
-6992182.92
-21124419.71
-28116602.64
25560547.85
-4879740.95
-23236861.68
-28116602.64
0.00
-2556054.79
-25560547.85
-28116602.64
S/. -28,116,602.64

BENEF.NET

VR =

BENEF.NETOS.PERP. - DEPRECIAC
.ECONMICA
i = COSTO.CAPITAL

i(1 + i) n
R = P

n
(1 + i ) - 1
150000

Servicio de la Deuda
-28116602.6

2.14359E-08
1.14358881

0.00281166