TheSeeleyFireandPotentialImpactsonHuntingtonCreekWaterSupplyClaySpringsFire andPotentialImpactsonOakCreekWaterSupply TheSeeleyFire TheSeeleyfireburnedabout48,000acresincentralUtahsouthofScofieldinJulyof2012, including18,500acresoftheHuntingtonCreekWatershedjustbelowElectricLakeinthe bottomhalfofthebasin.Thisconstitutesnearlyhalf(46%)ofthetotalwatershedareaof 40,100acres.Thefirewasallowedtoburnnaturallyforsometimeastherewerelimitedfire crewsavailableduringthatperiodandthesteepterrainmadefightingthisfireparticularly dangerous.ContainmentwasachievedinmidtolateJuly.

Figure1.BurnedportionoftheHuntingtonCreekWatershed(greyshadedarea)withtheSeeley fireperimeterinred.

Theimpactfireshaveonwatersupplyandstreamflowinhighreliefareasoftheintermountain Westcanbecomplex.Generallyinthefirstfewyearsafterafire,snowmeltcanbeaccelerated dueto:(1)carbon/dust/organicmaterialdepositiononthesnowsurface;(2)thevolumeof standingblackenedtimberchangingthealbedo(reflectivity)ofthesnowpack;and(3)the reductionincanopycoverinareasthatformerlysustainedevergreenforest.Snowmeltcan consequentlybeadvancedasmuchas6weeks,ormore.Theseconditionscanalsoleadto greatersnowpacklossestowinderosionandsublimation.Conversely,thelackofforestcover canincreasetheamountofsnowonthegroundthatwouldnormallybeinterceptedbythe forestcanopy,and,particularlyinthedecadeortwoafterthefire,mayleadtohigheroverall AprilJulystreamflow.However,inthefirstfewpostfireyearswithlowsnowpacksandwith longperiodsbetweenstorms,theneteffectcanbeloweroverallsnowwaterequivalentonthe groundwithearlymelt.SomeoftherunoffthatwouldnormallyhaveoccurredintheAprilJuly timeframecouldhappeninMarchorearlier. AsanexampleSnowdensityisanindicatorofwhenmeltwilloccur.InUtah,snowmelt typicallybeginswhenthesnowpackreachesabout35%to40%density.TheBoxCreekSNOTEL onMonroeMountainwasburnedlastyearsimilartotheHuntingtonfire.Currentlythesnow densityatBoxCreekis32%,whichisratheradvancedforthistimeofyear,whereas surroundingsitedensitiesareinamorenormal25%density.ThesnowpackatBoxCreekinthe middleofaburnareaisfarclosertomeltingconditionsthanthesurroundingarea. WatersupplyforecastmodelsaregearedtopredicttheAprilJulyrunoffseasonbasedon observedsnowpackandothervariables.TherearenodatasitesinsidetheHuntingtonCreek burnareaanddatausedinthehydrologicmodelsarefromnonimpactednearbysites.Assuch, weanticipatethatrunoffonHuntingtonCreekwillbeshiftedtoanearliertimeframedueto theburnconditionsinthewatershedandthattheAprilJulyforecastislikelytooverestimate theAprilJulystreamflow.Theseconditionscouldpersistforseveralyears.Itisalsoimportant tonotethattheinflowtoElectricLakewillnotbeimpacted. ThereareotherwatersupplyconcernsfortheHuntingtonCreekwatershed.Aprecipitation eventonAugust1droppedanestimated1.25inchesofrainovertheburnareawhichresulted indebrisflowsthatclosedStateHighway31fornearlyaweek.Giventhesteepterrain,the overallextentoftheburnarea,andthegenerallowinfiltrationsoiltypeofthearea,the potentialformasswastingeventsorsignificanterosion/sedimentationduringthespringrunoff seasonisconsiderable.Thissituationcouldbeexacerbatedbyrainonsnowevents.Heavy sedimentloads/organicmaterial/ashinthestreamflowcancauseproblemsatdiversion structures,clogordamagesprinklersystemsandcauseotherdamagetowatersupply infrastructure.ThefollowingphotosfromHuntingtonCanyonshowsomeofthedebrisflow fromthestormlastAugust.

 Photo:KyleEkker,fromIncidentInformationSystem.

Photo:KyleEkker,IncidentInformationSystem.

 Photo:KyleEkker,IncidentInformationSystem. SnowSurveypersonnelaremanuallymonitoringconditionsinaccessibleareasofHuntington Canyon.Resultsofourfirstdatacollectionfromtheareashowedahugerangeofsnow densitieswithmanyinthenormalrange(20%25%)andsomemoreadvanced(25%30%).Of noteisthatevenashighas9000ftelevationmanyofthesouthfacinghillslopesintheburn areacurrentlyhavelittleornosnow.

 LookingnorthinHuntingtonCanyoninsidetheburnareanoticethefragmentedsnowpackon thesouthfacingslopeversusthecontinuoussnowpackinthecanyonbottom.

LookingwestinHuntingtonCanyonoutsidetheburnareasnowpackonthesouthfacingslope ismorecontinuousfrombottomtotopthaninsidetheburnarea.

 Thisphotoshowsasouthfacingslopewithadiscontinuoussnowpackwhichislikelyduetofire impacts.

Carbon/dustlayersinthesnowpackfromwindandstormevents.Noticealso,thedarkened snowsurfacefromcarbonanddustdeposition.Thisareawillmeltoutfarinadvanceof surroundingnonburnareas.

 Carbonanddustdepositiononthesnowsurface.

Southfacingaspectnearlymeltedoffandcarbon/dustdepositiononthesnowsurface.

WaterusersthatrelyonHuntingtonCreekareadvisedthattheAprilJulyflowwilllikelybeless thanthe50%exceedancenumberandforplanningpurposesareadvisedtousealowerfigure suchasthe70%exceedancenumber.

================================================================================================================================= PRICE SAN RAFAEL Streamflow Forecasts - March 1, 2013 ================================================================================================================================= | <<====== Drier ====== Future Conditions ======= Wetter =====>> | | | Forecast Point Forecast | ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ====================== | Period | 90% 70% | 50% | 30% 10% | 30-Yr Avg. | (1000AF) (1000AF) | (1000AF) (% AVG.) | (1000AF) (1000AF) | (1000AF) ====================================================================|=======================|==================================== = Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield APR-JUL 11.7 16.9 | 21 70 | 26 33 30 | | Price R nr Scofield Reservoir (2) APR-JUL 11.9 19.6 | 26 63 | 33 46 41 | | White R bl Tabbyune Creek APR-JUL 4.0 6.6 | 8.7 56 | 11.1 15.3 15.5 | | Green R at Green River, UT (2) APR-JUL 813 1239 | 1580 53 | 1962 2599 2960 | | Electric Lake Inflow (2) APR-JUL 4.0 6.2 | 8.0 60 | 10.0 13.5 13.3 | | Huntington Ck nr Huntington (2) APR-JUL 14.3 20 | 25 63 | 30 39 40

InthisMarchreleasethe50%exceedancenumberforHuntingtonCreekis25,000acrefeetand the70%exceedancefigureis20,000acrefeet.Theeasywaytoreadthistable:weare90%sure toget14.3KAForhigher,70%suretoget20KAF,50%toget26KAFandonly30%chanceof getting30KAForhigher.Duetotheburnconditionsacrossthewatershednotcapturedby modelinput;weadviseusingalowerforecastnumbersuchasthe20KAFfigureinthis example. TheClaySpringsFire(OakCreekWatershed) TheClaySpringsfirenorthofDeltaburnedabout180,000acresinmidJulyof2012.Thisfire was,inplaces,extremelyhotandburnedrootsbelowthegroundsurface.Theterraininthis easttowestfacingwatershedisverysteepwithabout50%ofthewatershedonasouthfacing aspect.Nearlytheentirewatershed(99.6%)wasconsumedinthefire.

 ClaySpringsfireperimetershowninred. TheOakCreekSNOTELsitewasdestroyedandlaterrebuilt,andiscurrentlygivinggood informationonsnowpack,precipitation,temperatureandsoilmoisture.Currently(mid February)thereisaboutthesameamountofsnowatthesiteaslastyear.

 Thereisabout7.7inchesofsnowwaterequivalentatthesitewithadensityof30%.Thissiteis onasteepnorthfacingaspectwellshelteredfromsolarenergyandasofaweekago,snow densitywasat25%.Givensimilarweatherpatternsinthenextfewweeksandthissitecould beginmeltinginmidMarch.Soilmoistureatthissiteispowderdryintheupper4inchesat about1%ofsaturation.Deepersensorsat8and20inchesarealsodrybutshowimproved conditionsatnear44%ofsaturation.

 OakCreekSNOTELsitepriortotheClaySpringsfire.

OakCreekSNOTELrebuildpostClaySpringsfire.PhototakenAugust,2012.

 OakCreekWatershedlookingnorthatthesouthfacingaspectswhichwereprettyuniformly burned.Conditionsonthiswatershedarehighlysusceptibletoerosionandareprimedto produceheavyamountsofsediment,organicmaterialandash.PhototakenAugust,2012. SnowSurveypersonnelwereonsiteWednesday,February27thtomeasurethesiteandassess conditions.ThiswasjustafterthelargesnowstormofFebruary23/24.Muchofthesouth facingaspectontheOakCreekwatershedwasbareorhadverylittlesnowcoverandatthis pointinthesnowaccumulationseasonitislikelythatanyfutureaccumulationwillbevery transientinnature.Thenorthernaspectisholdingaboutthesamesnowaslastyearandonce meltstarts,willlikelyproceedveryquickly.Thesouthernaspectwontproducemuchstream flowwhichindicateslowerflowsshouldbeexpected.Theflowthatisgeneratedfromthe northernaspectshasthepotentialtostartearlier,bemuchshorterinduration,havehigher peakflowsandhavelowerbaseflowthroughoutthelatersummermonthsthanwhatwould normallybeexpectedgiventhisamountofsnow.

 OakCreekSNOTEL,2/27/2013PhotobyBobNault

OakCreekWatershedlookingnorth,2/27/2013.PhotobyBobNault

WaterusersthatrelyonOakCreekareadvisedthattheAprilJulyflowwilllikelybelessthan the50%exceedancenumberandforplanningpurposesareadvisedtousealowerfiguresuch asthe70%exceedancenumber.

================================================================================================================================= LOWER SEVIER RIVER BASIN Streamflow Forecasts - March 1, 2013 ================================================================================================================================= = | <<====== Drier ====== Future Conditions ======= Wetter =====>> | | | Forecast Point Forecast | ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ====================== | Period | 90% 70% | 50% | 30% 10% | 30-Yr Avg. | (1000AF) (1000AF) | (1000AF) (% AVG.) | (1000AF) (1000AF) | (1000AF) ====================================================================|=======================|==================================== Sevier R nr Gunnison APR-JUL 35 65 | 91 92 | 107 137 99 | | Chicken Ck nr Levan APR-JUL 1.03 1.89 | 2.70 60 | 3.70 5.60 4.50 | | Oak Creek nr Oak City APR-JUL 0.53 0.82 | 1.00 60 | 1.31 1.75 1.66 | | ================================================================================================================================= * 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

InthisMarchreleasethe50%exceedancenumberforOakCreekis1000acrefeetandthe70% exceedancefigureis820acrefeet.Theeasywaytoreadthistable:weare90%suretoget530 KAForhigher,70%suretoget820KAF,50%toget1300KAFandonly30%chanceofgetting 1310KAForhigher.Duetotheburnconditionsacrossthewatershednotcapturedbymodel input,weadviseusingalowerforecastnumbersuchasthe820KAFfigureinthisexample.