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IZA, University of Bonn,
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University of Milan,
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University of Padua,
Copyright
2007
c Cornell University. All rights reserved.
Labor Market Institutions and Wage Inequality
Winfried Koeniger, Marco Leonardi, and Luca Nunziata
Abstract
The authors investigate how labor market institutions such as unemployment insurance, unions,
firing regulations, and minimum wages have affected the evolution of wage inequality among male
workers. Results of estimations using data on institutions in eleven OECD countries indicate that
changes in labor market institutions can account for much of the change in wage inequality be-
tween 1973 and 1998. Factors found to have been negatively associated with male wage inequality
are union density, the strictness of employment protection law, unemployment benefit duration,
unemployment benefit generosity, and the size of the minimum wage. Over the 26-year period, in-
stitutional changes were associated with a 23% reduction in male wage inequality in France, where
minimum wages increased and employment protection became stricter, but with an increase of up
to 11% in the United States and United Kingdom, where unions became less powerful and (in the
United States) minimum wages fell.
The authors investigate how labor market institutions such as unemployment insur-
ance, unions, firing regulations, and minimum wages have affected the evolution of
wage inequality among male workers. Results of estimations using data on institutions
in eleven OECD countries indicate that changes in labor market institutions can ac-
count for much of the change in wage inequality between 1973 and 1998. Factors found
to have been negatively associated with male wage inequality are union density, the
strictness of employment protection law, unemployment benefit duration, unemploy-
ment benefit generosity, and the size of the minimum wage. Over the 26-year period,
institutional changes were associated with a 23% reduction in male wage inequality in
France, where minimum wages increased and employment protection became stricter,
but with an increase of up to 11% in the United States and United Kingdom, where
unions became less powerful and (in the United States) minimum wages fell.
age inequality is substantially lower in exogenous shifts in demand are likely to have
W continental European countries than
in the United States and United Kingdom,
been fairly similar across these countries; and
on the supply side, the proportion of the work
and its evolution over time has differed greatly force that is educated has risen throughout
across countries. The same holds true for the these economies, although the education
skill (or education) wage premium. Changes systems have expanded at different times.
in the supply of and demand for skills are Hence, differences across these countries in
unlikely to fully account for these marked the evolution of wage inequality seem likely
differences (Acemoglu 2003). A substantial to reflect, in part, country-specific variation
amount of research on wage inequality has in the way labor market institutions have
examined the forces that may shift the rela- changed.
tive demand for skills, such as changing trade In this paper we use panel data on institu-
patterns and skill-biased technical change. tions in OECD countries to determine how
However, since developed economies operate much of the increase in wage inequality
in the same global environment, with inte- can be attributed to changes in institutions
grated trade and equal access to technology, within countries. Our study extends previous
research in several directions. By assessing
the quantitative relationship between institu-
tions and male wage inequality, we build on
*Winfried Koeniger is Senior Research Associate at the literature investigating the determinants
IZA, University of Bonn; Marco Leonardi is Assistant
Professor in the Department of Labor Studies, Univer-
of unemployment rates (see, for example,
sity of Milan; and Luca Nunziata is Associate Professor
in the Department of Economics, University of Padua.
The authors thank Daron Acemoglu, Francine Blau,
Steve Nickell, and participants at various seminars and The data and computer programs used for this paper
conferences for very helpful comments. Financial sup- are available from the authors upon request. Contact
port of DAAD-Vigoni and ESRC grant RES-000-23-0244 Marco Leonardi, Department of Labor Studies, Univer-
(“Improving Methods for Macro-econometric Model- sity of Milan, via Conservatorio 7, 20122 Milan, Italy;
ing”) is gratefully acknowledged. marco.leonardi@unimi.it.
Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 60, No. 3 (April 2007). © by Cornell University.
0019-7939/00/6003 $01.00
340
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 341
Blanchard and Wolfers 2000 and, especially, wedge” (the sum of the employment tax rate,
Nickell et al. 2005) and average labor costs direct tax rate, and indirect tax rate; see
(Nunziata 2005) across OECD countries. the Appendix), and unemployment benefit
Under the “Krugman hypothesis,” macro- generosity and duration. We also include ad-
economic shocks increase wage inequality ditional controls for other factors that might
in countries where wages are flexible and affect the evolution of wage inequality—R&D
unemployment in countries where wages are intensity, for example, which approximates
constrained by institutions. Thus, it has been technology change, and a measure for the
argued that the effect of such institutions on age composition of the labor force.
the wage differential can be considered as
just the other side of the same coin (Bertola
How Do Institutions
et al. 2002).
Affect Wage Inequality?
Much of the previous empirical litera-
ture has studied how specific labor market In our empirical analysis we focus on la-
institutions affect wage differentials. For bor market institutions like the strictness of
example, Card (2001) for the United States, employment protection regulation, the tax
Machin (1997) for Britain, Card et al. (2004) wedge, unemployment benefit generosity and
for a comparison of the United States, the duration, union density, union coordination,
United Kingdom, and Canada, and Kahn and minimum wages. One simple framework
(2000) for OECD countries have found that for evaluating how all these institutions af-
higher union density is associated with lower fect wage differentials is a model in which
wage inequality. DiNardo et al. (1996), Lee unions bargain with employers over the wage.
(1999) for the United States, and Dickens In such a model, all the institutions listed
et al. (1999) for the United Kingdom have above change the outside option—the best
found that higher minimum wages reduce fall-back position in the event that bargaining
wage inequality. Moreover, wage-setting in- breaks down—of employers or unions (see
stitutions have been found to be important Koeniger et al. 2004). If labor market institu-
for wage inequality by Erickson and Ichino tions improve the outside option more for
(1995) and Manacorda (2004) for Italy and unskilled workers than for skilled workers,
by Edin and Holmlund (1995) for Sweden. this will strengthen their bargaining posi-
We broaden the scope of investigation not tion and tend to compress the skill wage dif-
only by examining all of the institutions ferential. Such a differential impact seems
focused on by those earlier studies, but also likely for at least two important institutions.
by looking at many OECD countries over a In most OECD countries, unemployment
long time period. benefit replacement rates are progressive
Most of the literature has investigated cross- due to benefit floors and ceilings that imply
country differences using cross-sectional data relatively larger rates for unskilled work-
(for example, Blau and Kahn 1996, 2005). ers. Furthermore, employment protection
We focus instead on cross-country differences involves a substantial fixed administrative
in the evolution of wage inequality over time. burden, which makes it more costly for
The only previous longitudinal study of wage unskilled workers than for skilled workers
inequality and institutions is Wallerstein (see Boeri et al. 2006).
(1999), examining 16 developed countries in In reality, institutions are quite complex
the years 1980, 1986, and 1992. Our analysis and affect wage differentials in various other
builds on Wallerstein’s work, but the sample ways. For example, union coordination or
we use, consisting of an unbalanced panel of centralization might compress wage differ-
11 countries, not only is more than four times entials if the union agreement’s influence
larger than that in the earlier study, but also extends widely throughout the economy and
covers a period of time twice as long, with a if the agreement allows unions to better insure
maximum of 26 years. Our analysis includes its members (Wallerstein 1990), or if central-
institutions Wallerstein’s did not, such as ized unions mitigate the hold-up problem in
employment protection regulation, the “tax the context of aggregate shocks (Teulings and
342 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW
a time period for too few countries, resulting the share of workers in public employment,
in a very small sample—we instead adopt as the ratio of public expenditure to GDP.
our main dependent variable the ratio of the Our dataset contains measures of wage
90th to the 10th wage percentiles, w90/w10, bargaining institutions, generosity and du-
for male workers. We use gross wages for all ration of unemployment benefits, strictness
wage and salary workers in the public and of employment protection legislation, tax
private sector, as provided by the OECD (see wedge, and minimum wages. We argue that
the Data Appendix for the data sources). We these institutions tend to compress wages. In
focus on men because data are available for a a model of union bargaining this would hap-
longer time period for men than for women pen because their relative effect on workers’
and the male wage is less affected by changes outside option is larger for unskilled workers
in labor force participation. Although the than for other workers. This hypothesis is
measure w90/w10 is highly correlated with the quite plausible for the minimum wage, em-
wage differential by skill, we acknowledge ployment protection legislation (EPL), and
that it might capture some within-group the unemployment benefit replacement rate
wage inequality. Moreover, w90/w10 is an and duration.
aggregate measure and thus captures the A binding minimum wage clearly increases
effect of union bargaining in the unionized the relative wages of the unskilled. Concern-
sector as well as spillovers in the non-union ing EPL, Boeri et al. (2006) showed that EPL
sector. However, the estimation results be- strictness affects unemployment inflows of
low suggest that the effect in the unionized high-skilled workers less than those of other
sector dominates the possible spillovers in workers and suggested that EPL protects un-
the non-union sector. skilled workers more than skilled workers be-
To control for aggregate labor supply and cause of a substantial fixed-cost component.
demand conditions, we use OECD data on Further evidence shows that judges tend to
unemployment rates and the relative skill give more protection to unskilled work-
endowment measured as educational attain- ers who have relatively low re-employment
ment. We define skilled workers as those with probabilities than to other groups (Ichino
at least some college education. In some et al. 2003). Finally, unemployment benefit
regressions we add controls for work force replacement rates are decreasing with earn-
composition: the share of women in the total ings as a result of benefit floors and ceilings:
labor force, the share of workers above age in OECD data the unemployment benefit
24 in total employment, and, as a proxy for replacement rate of a production worker
344 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW
earning two-thirds of the average wage is at we have data on benefit replacement rates
least as high as the replacement rate of the and benefit duration. The benefit replace-
average worker. Below, we further discuss ment rate is the unemployment benefit as
how this alternative measure of the replace- a proportion of pre-tax earnings, averaged
ment rate affects wage inequality. Similarly over family types of recipients. The variable
detailed data for the other institutional mea- Benefit Duration measures the duration of
sures like union density and the tax wedge the entitlement to unemployment benefits
are unfortunately not available. If we accept in each country. The data on employment
the hypothesis that the effects of institutions protection legislation summarize the set of
on workers’ outside option are greatest for rules and procedures governing dismissals of
the unskilled, however, we should expect a employed workers. The tax wedge is defined
negative effect of our aggregate institutional as the sum of the employment tax rate, the
measures on wage differentials. direct tax rate, and the indirect tax rate (see
Detailed information on the sources of the Data Appendix for further explanation).
the institutional data is contained in the Data Finally, the measure of minimum wages is
Appendix. We have two measures of wage bar- defined as the ratio of the official minimum
gaining institutions: the union membership wage to the median wage. Not all countries
rate among active workers, or union density, in our sample have an official minimum wage,
and the index of coordination (a measure and our fixed-effects estimates will depend
of the degree to which different unions and on the six countries in which the minimum
the employer side in a country coordinate wage changes over time in our sample period:
in a given bargaining round). An alterna- Australia, Canada, the United States, the
tive measure of union bargaining power is Netherlands, France, and Japan.
union coverage, that is, the proportion of
contracts covered by collective agreements.
Estimation Results
This variable has the advantage of giving
more weight to unions in countries—France, Our estimation results, presented in Tables
for example—where union density is quite 2 and 3, show that institutions are strongly
low but unions’ bargaining power is high. associated with wage inequality. Table 2 pres-
Consistent series on union coverage for all ents the results of the baseline model, which
countries are not available, however, apart is augmented with the interactions between
from a few observations every ten years (see institutions in Table 3. Finally, in Tables 4,
Nickell et al. 2005). While union coverage is 5, and 6 we present some simulations that
an omitted variable here, it is measured less illustrate quantitatively how changes in insti-
frequently than and exhibits less variability tutions are related to wage differentials.
than union density. As coverage is relatively In Table 2 the coefficients on employment
stable over time, differences in union cover- protection, the benefit replacement rate and
age are controlled for by country fixed effects duration, union density, and the minimum
(the same holds for all other unobservable wage are found to be highly statistically
characteristics of countries that are constant significant across alternative specifications.
over time). Moreover, coverage is known to Consistent with the explanation given above,
be correlated with coordination (Bertola, the negative signs of the coefficients suggest
Blau, and Kahn, forthcoming), which we that these institutions improve the outside
do measure on a time-varying basis. We option and the bargaining position relatively
control for this other source of union het- more for unskilled workers than for other
erogeneity using an index of coordination workers and thus compress the skill wage
in wage bargaining. This measure captures differential. Columns (1) and (2) contain
the extent to which unions moderate wage estimation results for the 90-10 male wage
demands as they recognize the macroeco- differential, whereas columns (3) and (4)
nomic consequences of their decisions on report the results of our preferred specifica-
employment. tion for the 90-50 and 50-10 male wage dif-
Concerning unemployment benefits, ferentials, respectively. The standard errors
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 345
and trade are highly statistically significant. For further insight on our hypothesis
In particular, the 90-10 male wage differen- that institutions are more important for
tial is more compressed in the presence of strengthening the bargaining position of
stricter employment protection legislation, unskilled workers than that of skilled workers,
higher unemployment benefits, higher union we use the OECD benefit replacement rate
density, and higher minimum wages. The of a production worker earning two-thirds
index of coordination and the tax wedge of the average wage instead of the average
are also negatively associated with the wage replacement rate in column (1). The results,
differential but are not statistically signifi- which are not reported, show that the coef-
cant. Moreover, the male wage differential ficient is negative, statistically significant,
is positively associated with import intensity1 and twice as large in absolute size as the
but negatively associated with R&D intensity. coefficient on the average replacement rate.
This suggests that R&D expenditure is not a This suggests that unemployment benefit
good proxy for the stock of technology, be- replacement rates are more generous for
ing both an input and a flow variable. The unskilled workers than for other workers
effect of the stock of technology on the wage and thus compress the wage differential.
differential is likely to be captured at least In column (2) we augment the model
partly by the country and time dummies in with controls for work force composition
our regression. R&D should be much more effects: the share of the women in the total
useful for explaining changes in the wage labor force, the ratio of government expen-
differential than the level of that differential. diture to GDP, and the age composition
Indeed, if we estimate a specification with of employment measured by the share of
three-year changes of the wage differential, workers above the age of 24 in total employ-
the coefficient on R&D intensity is positive ment. The share of women in the total labor
and statistically significant.2 force is relevant for male wage inequality if
Finally, the skill endowment of the labor women are substitutes for low-skilled men,
force is positively associated with higher wage as claimed by Topel (1994). We use the
inequality. Recall that the skill endowment ratio of government expenditure to GDP
does not necessarily correspond to the rela- as a proxy for the share of public employ-
tive employment of skilled workers. For this ment. The empirical evidence shows that
reason, to proxy the relative skill supply we wages are more compressed in the public
also include the total unemployment rate sector than in the private sector, possibly
and its interaction with the skill endowment; reflecting the fact that unions are more
neither, however, is statistically significant. powerful in the public sector (Checchi
In general, the sign and significance of and Lucifora 2002). Therefore we expect
the coefficients on skill endowment and the ratio of government expenditure to
unemployment rate are not robust across GDP to be negatively associated with wage
all specifications. Unfortunately, we do not inequality. Finally, the share of workers
have better measures for aggregate supply above age 24 in total employment controls
and demand conditions for all countries in for the possible effects of age-varying wage
our sample period. profiles on wage inequality.
The presence of work force controls in
column (2) does not affect the results on
1
According to the literature, trade with non-OECD institutions except for the coefficients on
countries is particularly relevant for wage inequality be- union coordination and the tax wedge,
cause it decreases the price of low–skill-intensive goods
and thus the price for unskilled labor. We investigate this which now become statistically significant:
hypothesis using the import intensity of trade with non- a decrease in taxes and an increase in union
OECD countries, although the data are only available coordination are associated with increased
from the 1980s onward. Consistent with the hypothesis, wage inequality. The coefficients on the
we find that the positive coefficient on non-OECD import
intensity is significantly larger (at the 10% level) than
work force controls are all statistically
the coefficient on total import intensity. significant. The ratio of government ex-
2
Results are available on request to the authors. penditure to GDP enters with the expected
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 347
negative sign. The coefficient on the share 0.038 and the R2 from 0.935 to 0.970. In
of workers over age 24 is positive, suggest- a regression with only measures of trade,
ing that a higher proportion of workers at technology, and relative unemployment,
the top of their experience-wage profile is without measures for institutions, the RMSE
reflected in higher aggregate wage inequal- changes to 0.077 and the R2 to 0.950. These
ity. Finally, the share of women in the labor numbers imply that the institutional mea-
force is negatively associated with male wage sures in column (1) substantially reduce the
inequality. This is in contrast with results RMSE (from 0.077 to 0.038) and increase
reported by Topel (1994), who found a posi- the R2 (from 0.95 to 0.97). Therefore the
tive relationship between female labor force increment in the variation explained by
participation and male wage inequality in institutions exceeds the amount explained
the United States. Controlling for age and by our trade and technology measures.
skill groups, he argued that the big increase The results for the 90-50 and 50-10 male
in participation of skilled women increased wage differentials reported in columns (3)
male wage inequality because women are and (4) help us to disaggregate the effect of
substitutes for low-skilled workers. Our institutions on the entire wage distribution.
results suggest that this substitution effect It turns out that the coefficients on employ-
may not be robust for other countries. ment protection, replacement rates, and
The negative coefficient on the share of minimum wages are quantitatively similar
women in the total labor force could also for the upper and lower part of the wage
be explained if in some countries, like the distribution. This finding is puzzling for
Scandinavian countries in our sample, the minimum wage. Interestingly, the same
government intervention decreases male pattern is reported in the U.S. literature on
wage inequality while creating conditions the effect of the minimum wage on wage
favorable for female participation in the inequality across U.S. states (Autor et al.
labor market. 2005). The results also show that union
Controlling for work force composition, density is more important for the upper part
we have slightly fewer observations (160 in- of the distribution (90-50) than for the lower
stead of 175) due to the lack of data on age part, suggesting that more powerful unions
composition of employment for the United tend to transfer rents from very skilled to
Kingdom at the beginning of the sample less skilled workers. Finally, the results
period. In what follows we prefer to keep show that union coordination increases
all available observations in the sample, the 90-10 wage differential if we control for
presenting the results without controlling changes in work force composition. The
for work force composition. However, we results in columns (3) and (4) suggest that
consistently check to ensure that our results this is a combination of a negative associa-
are robust with respect to the inclusion of tion with the 50-10 wage differential and
these controls. a positive association with the 90-50 wage
To measure the explanatory power of differential. According to the literature,
our institutional indicators, we compare the more coordinated unions take into account
results shown in column (1) with the results the adverse employment consequences of
of a regression that only includes time and higher wages and thus are less aggressive
country dummies. The additional regres- in wage bargaining. Since labor demand is
sors in column (1) substantially improve more elastic for low-skill low-income workers
the fit.3 The RMSE changes from 0.084 to than for other workers, one would expect
more union coordination to eventuate in
more wage moderation at the bottom of the
distribution. Our results show instead that
3
Note that our explanatory variables also capture union coordination matters more for me-
much of the total variation in the data. We find that
a regression with only the explanatory variables (not
dian-income workers than for low-income
reported) provides a better fit than a regression with workers and thus lowers the median wage
country and year dummies alone. relative to the wage at the tenth percentile
348 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW
of the distribution. One explanation for this ficient on the average country, that is, the
finding is that institutional factors that are country characterized by the mean level of
not a direct part of the wage negotiations that specific institutional indicator. For this
between unions and employers, like gener- average country, the interaction terms are
ous unemployment benefits, introduce a zero. We experimented with various interac-
wage floor that constrains the bargained tions, but only three interactions—between
wages for unskilled workers. (a) the two union bargaining variables,
(b) employment protection and minimum
Institution Interactions wages, and (c) the two unemployment ben-
efit variables—turned out to be statistically
The models in Table 3 include a set of in- significant. These three interactions are
teractions between labor market institutions. statistically significant when introduced
They account both for some complementarity separately, as can be seen in Table 3, columns
in institutions and possible heterogeneity in (1)–(3). The coefficients of the variable
the institutional coefficients.4 For example, interactions employment protection minimum
the effect of the tax wedge on real wages wage and benefit replacement rate benefit dura-
depends on unions’ strength (union density) tion both have a negative sign, again suggest-
and coordination. If unions are strong and ing a larger impact of these institutions on
decentralized, they will pass on relatively unskilled workers than on other workers.
more of the gross labor cost to employers, The interaction between union coordination
with adverse employment consequences. and union density has a positive sign. Given
Coordinated unions take these consequences the negative and statistically significant coef-
into account and thus moderate their wage ficient on union density, this indicates that
demands (see Daveri and Tabellini 2000; more powerful unions compress wages less
Alesina and Perotti 1997). Another interac- if they are more coordinated. As explained
tion arises between employment protection above, more coordinated unions moderate
and minimum wages. Employment protec- their wage demands as they take the adverse
tion has more bite if wages are downwardly employment effects into account. When we
rigid, since firms cannot reduce wages to include all three interactions at the same time
pass on to workers the expected cost of firing (column 4), only two interactions—union
regulations (see Lazear 1990; Bertola and density union coordination and benefit replace-
Rogerson 1997). Finally, the generosity of ment rate benefit duration—remain statistically
unemployment benefits matters more the significant. This is also true for the models
longer such benefits are provided (see, for using the 90-50 and 50-10 wage differentials
example, Nickell et al. 2005). We expect the in columns (5) and (6). The coefficients of
latter two policy interactions to compress all other variables are robust with respect to
the wage differential, since they are likely to the introduction of the interactions.
affect unskilled workers more strongly than
other workers. The effect of the interaction
Robustness
between union density and coordination is
less straightforward, since union coordina- We first check the robustness of the re-
tion is relevant for wage bargaining across the sults by dropping one country at a time. We
wage distribution in many countries. find that in only one case do the estimated
The variables on institutions enter in each coefficients change substantially: excluding
interaction as deviations from the sample Finland reduces the importance of union
average. In this way the coefficient on each density. One difference between Finland
institution in levels can be read as the coef- and most other countries in the sample is
that union density has increased in Finland
since the 1970s. Our results are also robust
4
These specifications are in the spirit of Belot and
with respect to the exclusion of R&D intensity
van Ours (2001), who analyzed the effect of institution or import intensity. Moreover, our results
interactions on unemployment. are qualitatively robust with respect to the
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 349
exclusion of the minimum wage, whose coef- if the unemployment benefit replacement
ficient is identified by time variation within ratio is more generous. Intuitively appealing
only six countries. though this result may be, however, it is not
Second, we investigate whether the impact robust across alternative specifications.
of import intensity depends on the institu- Finally, one possible concern is the en-
tional context of each country. When we dogeneity of our indicators of aggregate
introduce a set of interactions between import supply and demand conditions in the labor
intensity and each institutional regressor, we market. Since we have not found a convinc-
find that the effect of import intensity is lower ing identification for a system estimation,
350 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW
we evaluate the sensitivity of our results by deviation increase in union density or the
excluding the unemployment rate and the minimum wage.
relative skill endowment from our specifica- Panel B of Table 4 shows the increase in
tion. We find that all our results are robust the 90-10 log-wage differential associated with
with respect to this exclusion. a change from the most rigid to the most
flexible regulation in each institutional di-
Quantitative Implications mension. For employment protection, union
density, benefit replacement rates, and the
At this point the reader may wonder just minimum wage, we also compute that effect
how large are the effects of institutions on when we consider specific values of institution
wage inequality. To illustrate the quantitative interactions as in Table 3, column (4).
importance of the estimates, we calculate the Starting with the coefficient estimates
effects of the coefficient estimates for institu- without interactions in column (1), Table 2,
tions and then perform simulations. First, we a change from the most rigid employment
show what would happen to wage inequality protection legislation (Italy) to the most flex-
if we changed from the most rigid to the ible (the United States) is associated with an
most flexible regulation in each institutional increase of 55% in the 90-10 differential. The
dimension. Second, we calculate how wage implied increase changes little if we use the
inequality would change in each country if coefficients of the model with interactions
the U.S. institutional regime were adopted. (column 4, Table 3) or consider the change
Finally, we compute how wage inequality for countries with low or high minimum
would have changed in each country by the wages. The same exercise can be done for
end of the sample period (1998) if institu- the unemployment benefit replacement rate,
tional parameters had held constant at their union density, and the minimum wage. The
1973 values. Although these simulations interactions appreciably affect the size of the
give an immediate sense of the magnitude association for some indicators. For example,
of the effect of institutions, they should be the positive association between lower union
interpreted with care because, as mentioned density and the wage differential is more than
above, our institutional indicators are imper- offset if bargaining coordination is higher,
fectly measured. and the influence of unemployment benefits
Table 4 presents two sets of simulations greatly increases with benefit duration. In
based on the coefficient estimates in column both cases the results are consistent with
(1), Table 2, and the model with interac- the literature on institutional interactions
tions in column (4), Table 3. In panel A discussed above. Finally, changes in the tax
of Table 4 we calculate the percentage in- wedge and union coordination, which are
crease in the 90-10 differential associated not reported, have only a small effect on the
with a one–standard-deviation reduction wage differential (–6% and 5%, respectively,
in rigidity for each institutional dimension in the model with interactions).
(the standard deviations are shown in Table Table 5 shows how the 90-10 log-wage
1). A reduction of employment protection differential would change in each country if
by one standard deviation turns out to be institutions were adjusted to match those in
most important, being associated with an the United States. The numbers are obtained
18% higher wage differential. Reducing the using the coefficient estimates of column
generosity of the unemployment benefit (1), Table 2, and of column (4), Table 3,
system in size by one standard deviation and the average values of all institutional
is associated with a 4–8% higher wage dif- variables for each country. We find sizeable
ferential (the exact value depending on positive changes in the wage differential:
whether the interactions of institutions are an increase between 16% and 66% for the
included), and a similar reduction in benefit baseline model and between 27% and 84%
duration increases wage inequality by 5%. in the specification with institution interac-
Finally, the wage differential rises by 6–10% tions. For example, the simulations based on
or 4–6%, respectively, with a one-standard- the specification with institution interactions
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 351
imply the largest change for the Netherlands, Finally, in Table 6 we compute the predict-
where the wage differential would nearly ed change in the 90-10 log wage differential
double. This is because institutions in the associated with changes in institutions from
Netherlands are more rigid than those in 1973 to 1998. We predict wage inequality
the United States on all five measures. We using the coefficient estimates of column
find smaller changes for the other countries (1), Table 2, and of column (4), Table 3. We
because the institutions are not always more compute the predicted change due to time-
rigid than in the United States; France has varying institutions expressed as a fraction
lower union density than the United States, of actual wage inequality at the end of the
for example, and Germany, Italy, and Swe- sample period. Had institutions not changed
den have no official minimum wage. Not since the 1970s, the 90-10 wage differential in
surprisingly, the positive changes are small- France, for example, would have been 16%
est in Anglo-Saxon countries, because their higher than the actual value in the 1990s if we
institutional environment is most similar to consider our baseline model (23% higher if
that of the United States. we consider our model with interactions). We
352 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW
decompose this percentage change further, Wallerstein’s paper). Wallerstein found that
holding constant one institution at a time. changes in wage-setting institutions between
We find that holding employment protection 1980 and 1992 could explain a 3% increase in
constant at the 1970s level is associated with the wage differential in the United States and
13% higher wage inequality in France in the up to a 14% increase in the United Kingdom.
1990s; holding the minimum wage down to Our results with institution interactions for
its 1970s level increases wage inequality in the the United Kingdom suggest a similar order
1990s by 4%; and stabilizing union density of magnitude.
at the 1970s level (a counterfactual to the Our simulations also imply that about a
decline that actually occurred) decreases fifth of the actual percentage change in wage
wage inequality in the 1990s by 2%. inequality in the United States and United
Similarly, had institutions remained the Kingdom can be explained by changes in
same as in the 1970s in Sweden, by the 1990s institutions. Since the actual increase in wage
wage inequality would have been around inequality has been large in both countries
45% higher than its actual value. The lower (respectively, 32% and 25% in the period
actual inequality is mainly owing to increases 1975–99), this suggests an important influ-
in union density and in the unemployment ence of labor market institutions on changes
benefit replacement ratio, which accounted, in wage inequality. Wallerstein (1999)
respectively, for 10% and 12% lower actual similarly found that changes in wage-setting
wage inequality than its counterfactual value institutions could explain 20% of the increase
in the simulation. In the United States and in wage inequality in the United States and
United Kingdom, instead, the decline in close to 50% of the actual increase in the
union density and (in the United States only) United Kingdom.
in the minimum wage are associated with
higher wage inequality over time. Had all
Conclusion
institutions stayed the same as in the 1970s,
wage inequality would have been 4% lower in Our empirical results show that stricter em-
the 1990s in both countries. The decline in ployment protection legislation, more gener-
union density alone accounts for 3% higher ous benefit replacement ratios, longer benefit
wage inequality in the United States and for duration, higher union density, and a higher
5% in the United Kingdom, and the decline minimum wage are associated with lower
in the minimum wage accounts for 1% higher male wage inequality. We find that changes
wage inequality in the United States. in these institutions can explain a substantial
These results are broadly in line with part of observed changes in male wage in-
Wallerstein (1999), although we use different equality—at least as much as is explained by
measures for institutions and have a longer our trade and technology measures. We have
sample period. Because we control for coun- assessed the quantitative implications of our
try and year dummies in all our regressions, estimates in two simulation exercises. First,
the estimates from the earlier study to which we found that if the regulatory flexibility of
ours are most comparable are those that used all institutions in the studied countries were
time variation within countries (see Table 2, changed to match that in the United States,
column 7 and the discussion in section 5 in wage inequality would increase between
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 353
Data Appendix
Dependent Variable
Wage inequality. Data on male wage dispersion are taken from the Trends in earnings dispersion database provided
by the OECD. This database collects information on earnings for all employees based on national surveys or ad-
ministrative data. The measures for wage dispersion are the natural logarithm of the ratio of the percentiles 90-10,
90-50, and 50-10 of gross wages.
Institution Variables
Employment protection. Blanchard and Wolfers (2000) provide a time-varying employment protection indica-
tor for the time period 1960–95, with one observation every five years. This series is built chaining OECD data
with data from Lazear (1990). Notice that the OECD data, used from 1985 onward, are constructed based on a
more extensive collection of employment protection dimensions than Lazear used. Our data set includes an in-
terpolation of the Blanchard and Wolfers series, readjusted in the mean with a range 0-2 increasing with strictness
of employment protection.
Net union density. For non-European countries this variable is constructed as the ratio of total reported union
members (gross minus retired and unemployed members), as reported in Visser (1996), to the number of wage and
salaried employees, reported in Huber et al. (1997). The data are updated using data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (United States: 1994 and 1995), the ILO (1997) (Australia: 1995; New Zealand: 1994 and 1995; Canada:
1994 and 1995), and the Japan Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare’s “Basic Survey on Labor Unions” (Japan:
1995). The data for European countries except Sweden are reported in Ebbinghaus and Visser (2000) using the
same criteria. Concerning Sweden, Ebbinghaus and Visser provide data on the gross density only. Therefore we
use the same sources that we use for non-European countries, updating the series using the growth rate of gross
density in 1995.
Bargaining coordination. This is an index with a range 1-3 constructed by interpolating OECD data on bargaining
coordination. It is increasing in the degree of coordination in the bargaining process on the employers’ as well as
on the unions’ side. The resulting series were matched with the data reported in Belot and van Ours (2004).
Benefit replacement ratio. The OECD-provided data for this variable include one observation every two years
for each country in the sample. The data refer to the first year of unemployment benefits, averaged over family
types of recipients, since in many countries benefits depend on family composition. The benefits are measured as
a proportion of average pretax earnings.
Benefit duration. We constructed this index as a weighted average BD = _BRR2/BRR1 + (1 – _)BRR4/BRR1,
where BRR1 is the unemployment benefit replacement rate received during the first year of unemployment, BRR2
is the replacement rate received during the second and third years of unemployment, and BRR4 is the replacement
rate received during the fourth and fifth years of unemployment. Note that we give more weight to the first ratio
than to the second (_ = 0.6).
Tax wedge. The tax wedge is equal to the sum of the employment tax rate, the direct tax rate, and the indirect
tax rate: TW = t1 + t2 + t3. The employment tax rate t1 is calculated as t1 = EC/(IE – EC), where EC denotes the
employers’ total contributions and IE denotes wages, salaries, and social security contributions. The direct tax rate
is defined as t2 = DT/HCR, where DT is the amount of direct taxes and HCR is the amount of households’ current
receipts. The indirect tax rate is defined as t3 = (TX – SB)/CC, where TX are total indirect taxes, SB are subsidies,
and CC are private final expenditures. All data come from the London School of Economics CEP–OECD data base,
updated using the same criteria.
Minimum wage. This is the ratio of the statutory minimum wage to the median wage in each country. It is
provided by the OECD.
Other Control Variables
Supply and demand conditions. We use the national aggregate series on unemployment rates provided by the
OECD to construct log(Unempl.), and the national series of educational attainment provided by Angel de la Fuente
and Rafael Domenech at http://iei.uv.es/~domenech. The relative skill endowment is the ratio of the population
with some college to the rest of the population, which we use to calculate log(Skill).
Import intensity and R&D intensity. The OECD STAN database provides information on imports, R&D, and
value added in the manufacturing sector from 1973 to 2000. With these data we can build our proxies for trade and
technology using information on total manufacturing for imports, R&D, and value added for all countries.
Government expenditure per GDP (Gov. Exp./GDP). These data are obtained from the OECD National Ac-
counts.
Employment share above age 24 (Empl. Share > 24). We use the share of employees above age 24 in total em-
ployment. These data are provided by the OECD Labor Force Statistics.
Female labor supply (Fem. Lab. Supply). We use the share of women in the total labor force. These data are
taken from the OECD Labor Force Statistics.
LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND WAGE INEQUALITY 355
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