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13THMARCH 2013
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HEADLINES
Uncertainty Over the EuroZone Crisis/Recovery Leaves Euro at a Key Level Dollar Eases Off Multi-Year High as S&P 500 Marches Higher
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3035 tgs 1.3055/1.3075 sl 1.3005
Euro Eyes Italian Bill Sale, Pound Looking For Recovery Spark Pound Plummets to a New 2.5-Year Low on Declining Industrial Production
THE TAKEAWAY: UK industrial production declines 1.2% in January -> Signs worsen for Q1 economic growth -> Pound sets a new 2.5-year low The British Pound set a new 2.5-year low as UK manufacturing production and industrial production disappointed expectations. Industrial production fell 1.2% in January, worse than expectations for a 0.1% rise in production and down from Decembers 1.1% rise. Industrial production fell 2.9% from January 2012, according to the UK Office for National Statistics.
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ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3032 HIGH: 1.3038 LOW: 1.2991 CLOSE: 1.3008
REVERSAL
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 96.63 HIGH: 96.69 LOW: 95.64 CLOSE: 95.76
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>30(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.4904 HIGH: 1.4916 LOW: 1.4831 CLOSE: 1.4855
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .002( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 34(BEARIISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8743 HIGH: 0.8777 LOW: 0.8718 CLOSE: 0.8757
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.6740 HIGH: 82.7910 LOW: 82.6290 CLOSE: 82.6990
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon Mar 11
JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations 00:01 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (FEB) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)
High
Low
-44
-45
06:00
Medium
-21.5%
-26.4%
07:00
Medium
13.7B
13.9B
12.1B
07:00
Low
11.3B
10.5B
20.2B
07:00
Low
3.3%
0.7%
-1.5%
07:00
Low
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
07:00
Low
2.9%
2.9%
07:00
Low
0.8%
0.2%
08:15
Medium
1.9%
4.7%
09:00
Medium
-0.9%
-0.9%
-0.9%
09:00
Medium
-2.8%
-2.7%
-2.7%
23:50
Low
0.3%
0.4%
23:50
Low
-0.1%
-0.2%
23:50
Medium
-0.2%
1.4%
23:50
JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q) JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q) EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table) GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB) AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB) AUD NAB Business Confidence (FEB) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN) JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F) EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Medium
-5.5
23:50
Medium
-10.3
Tue Mar 12
00:01
Low
00:01
Medium
-1%
-4%
00:30
Low
-2
00:30
Medium
00:30
Low
$A49.9B
00:30
Low
$A22.4B
05:00
Medium
43.3
07:00
Low
0.3%
07:00
Low
2.3%
07:00
Medium
0.6%
0.6%
07:00
High
1.5%
1.5%
07:00
Medium
0.8%
0.8%
07:00
High
1.8%
1.8%
09:00
Low
0.1%
09:30
Low
0.1%
1.1%
09:30
Medium
-1.1%
-1.7%
09:30
Low
0.0%
1.6%
09:30
Medium
-1.0%
-1.5%
09:30
Medium
-8950
-8897
09:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JAN) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB) USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB) USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q) NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (2Q)
Medium
-3200
-3201
09:30
Low
-4500
-4239
11:30
Low
90.0
88.9
14:00
Low
3617
15:00
Medium
0.0%
18:00
Medium
21:45
Low
1.9%
23:30
Medium
7.7%
23:30
Wed Mar 13
Low
108.3
Low
7%
Medium
15%
00:30
AUD Home Loans (JAN) AUD Investment Lending (JAN) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN) EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)
Medium
0.5%
-1.5%
00:30
Low
-2.4%
00:30
Low
-2.7%
06:30
Low
-0.2%
-0.2%
10:00
Low
-0.1%
0.70%
10:00
Medium
-2.0%
-2.3%
11:00
Low
14.80%
12:30
Low
0.5%
0.6%
12:30
Low
-0.6%
-1.3%
12:30
High
0.5%
0.1%
12:30
Medium
0.5%
0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB) USD Business Inventories (JAN) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 8) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR) CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q) JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
Low
0.2%
0.1%
14:00
Medium
0.4%
0.1%
14:30
Low
3833K
14:30
Low
257K
14:30
Low
-616K
14:30
Low
-3830K
20:00
High
2.50%
2.50%
23:50
Low
23:50
Low
23:50
Low
657.8B
23:50
Low
269.6B
Thu Mar 14
00:00
Medium
2.2%
Low
14%
Low
11
Medium
-4.8%
-7.3%
00:30
AUD Employment Change (FEB) AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB) AUD Participation Rate (FEB) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)
High
10.0K
10.4K
00:30
High
5.5%
5.4%
00:30
Medium
-9.8K
00:30
Medium
20.2K
00:30
Low
65.0%
65.0%
02:00
Low
66.7%
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (FEB) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F) CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (4Q) CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q) USD Current Account Balance (4Q) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JAN) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8) USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)
Low
-5.4%
04:30
Low
1.0%
04:30
Medium
-5.1%
04:30
Low
2.9%
06:00
Medium
08:30
High
0.00%
0.00%
10:00
Low
-0.2%
10:00
Low
-0.7%
12:30
Low
12:30
Low
-$112.8B
-$107.5B
12:30
Low
0.2%
12:30
Low
2.3%
12:30
Medium
0.6%
0.2%
12:30
Medium
0.1%
0.2%
12:30
High
1.7%
1.4%
12:30
High
1.8%
12:30
Medium
340K
12:30
Low
3094K
14:30
Low
-146
20:30
Low
21:30
Medium
55.2
Fri Mar 15
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB) EUR Itally General Government Debt (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q) USD Empire Manufacturing (MAR) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (FEB) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB) USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) USD Industrial Production (FEB) USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)
Medium
00:00
Low
121
00:00
Low
2.3%
08:15
Low
-0.1%
08:15
Low
0.8%
09:30
Medium
1988.4B
10:00
Medium
0.4%
-1.0%
10:00
High
1.8%
1.8%
10:00
High
1.3%
1.3%
10:00
Low
2.0%
12:30
Low
10.04
12:30
Medium
0.4%
0.0%
12:30
Medium
0.2%
0.3%
12:30
High
1.8%
1.6%
12:30
High
2.0%
1.9%
12:30
Medium
232.138
232.108
12:30
Low
230.28
13:00
Low
$25.2B
13:00
Medium
$64.2B
13:00
Low
1.3%
13:15
Medium
0.3%
-0.1%
13:15
Low
79.3%
79.1%
13:15
Low
0.3%
-0.4%
13:55
Medium
78
77.6
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