WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.

COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

6-Mar-09 BOLT
The Employment report today will be electrical, scary, but at least gone and behind us. Yes the report should be bad, reflecting some
poor economic performance since the heart attack from the US (and worldwide) economy following the Lehman fall, but the worldwide
stimuli in place should start reaching the real economy anytime, meaning very soon the employment report will be seen as old news,
which it is anyway, being a lagging economic indicator. So, the market reaction might not be that obvious. It has been played and feared
all week, with some poor and sad historical comparison such as the October 1949 where the US economy shed 834k
Indeed the possible breech of March 1847 lows on the Eurostoxx (virtually broken last night on the future index, makes it
another thrill for the day, with some possible stop orders to be triggered. This would fit still the non stop view from Elliott guys predicting
a bottom anytime from the big bear market started in 2000, with or without a last downside leg to be achieved which could abort anytime
Fundamental players are beginning to switch their view as well, predicting a market rebound in Q2 once (hopefully) the heavy de leverage
flow is over, and why not, boosted by some more convincing news which would bring investors to jump back in (stimuli reaching the
cereal economies). But for that, some stability of the equity indices is required …
Following the expected 50bp interest rate cut to 1.5% yesterday, the ECB made some broadly encouraging comments about
further policy support to come. No plan is in place for quantitative easing, but the Bank has not ruled anything out and will at least
continue to provide unlimited liquidity to banks. Although the President said that there were a ‘number of drawbacks’ to reducing rates to
zero, he stressed that rates might well fall further in the coming months and that 1.5% was not necessarily the floor.
Meanwhile, Trichet made some fairly encouraging comments about the scope for unconventional policy. Although no plan for
quantitative easing is in place, he was keen not to rule anything out, stressing that the Bank’s hands are not tied in any way. The
President explained that losses made by the ECB so far (partly related to the collapse of Lehmans) have been distributed among the
national central banks, for which national governments presumably have ultimate responsibility. This was perhaps a hint that losses
associated with any future asset purchases might be dealt with in the same way.
In the meantime, the ECB has decided to go on providing unlimited liquidity to the banking sector in return for a wide range of
collateral until at least the end of 2009. The Bank’s balance sheet will presumably expand again in order to make such loans. Trichet
argued that such measures, which he referred to as ‘credit easing’, would be particularly effective in the euro-zone where commercial
banks play a relatively important role. Admittedly, the ECB is still doing less than other central banks to support the economy, and pure
quantitative easing like that currently underway at the Bank of England would, at the very least, take some time to organise. Nonetheless,
the Bank’s latest comments at least suggest that it is beginning to face the grim economic reality, which is welcome.
The S&P is down 23% since February Geithner speech so far … it has already broken its December 2002 lows (equivalent to the
1847 of the Eurostoxx reached in March 2003 we talked about above), and still suffers from awful current news flow (GM possible
bankruptcy back on scene), and a nice final event this week being the expected ugly employment report today. GM has already requested
additional funds from the government in order to help the company stave off bankruptcy, which the company has concluded would be a
costly process. And about the half empty glass players are looking at, Wal-Mart (up 2.5% though) dividend increase was seen as
reflection of consumer weakness, which is rooted in depreciating home values, falling stock prices, and rising job losses…
Breaking the 1847 important Eurostoxx level, activity should remain quiet ahead of the awful coming employment report.
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 44,1 1,2606 97,96 2,84 3,02 -4,51 -4,88 -8,89 -3,18 -3,45 -2,02 -4,74 -3,78 -1,51 -4,25 -4,00 -4,09 US
Perf 1d % -1,65 0,52 0,12 3,28 bp -11,9 bp -3,58 -3,82 -6,96 -2,41 -2,39 -0,49 -4,38 -4,11 -1,22 -3,36 -2,91 -2,93 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
Employment report (13h30 gmt) expected 650k job losses / rate 7.9% / the market is expecting some ugly data, anything better will be
welcome / keeping in mind though that the employment report is a lagging indicator, and things should be improving on H2 (or even
before) thanks to the huge stimuli worldwide which will start reaching the real economy/ interesting and market response not that obvious
POSITIVE IMPACTS
BELGACOM : FY revenue €5.98bn (5.93bn e) / Ebitda €1.99bn (1.95bn e) / Net debt end 08 €1.83bn (1.63bn e) / Div. €1.68 / Sees
2009 revenue decline around 1% with EBITDA margin between 32%-33%
WPP : FY revenue £7.47bn (7.27bn exp) / FY like-for-like revenue up 2.7% (3%) / Ebitda £1.29bn (1.22bn exp) / Dividend up 15% to
15.47 pence / But revised operating margin targets of 14.3% and 14.8%, including TNS, for 2009 and 2010
EDP : FY08 revenues €13.89bn / EBITDA €3.15bn (€3.05bn exp) / Separately EDP said it has signed a 'club deal' involving 19 banks for
a 3-year credit line of €1.6bn / It will replace an existing one, of €1.3bn , which matures in July 09
VEOLIA : FY08 rev. €36.21bn, in line / EBITDA €4.18bn, In line / Write-down €430m on German waste management unit / Div. €1.21
(€1.33 exp) / Aims for €2bn FCF in 2009 / To cut investments by €1.6bn in 2009 / 2009 Div can be paid in Shares / Conf call 0730 UKT
COMMERZBANK is in talks with several parties about a sale of its $900-m fund of hedge-fund managers (FT), known as Comas,
LLOYDS : The UK govt is close to a deal to insure up to £250 bn in assets at Lloyds (BBC) / The deal would increase the UK's from 43%
to 60%, since the govt would exchange some of its non-voting shares for regular ones & also acquire more non-voting shares
TELIASONERA does not expect to raise its stake in Megafon as Russia has declared telecoms as a strategic industry (CEO)
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
BNP : Belgian PM said a new offer has been made to BNP to persuade the bank to press ahead with its offer to buy the Belgian banking
business of Fortis after meeting with French President / No details of the negotiations were released / BNP is expected to present a
counter-offer today before midnight / Separately, Fortis Bank is to post a net loss of about €6 bn for the Q4, at least 1bn greater than
initially foreseen / Tier 1 ratio at year- end 2008 stands at around 10%.
RENAULT : S&P cut LT corporate credit rating to “BBB-” from “BBB” on weak financial profile
PEUGEOT : S&P cut its rating on Peugeot to BBB-/A-3, with a negative outlook / Separately, PSA & BMW would be in talks on expanding
their existing co-operation (Sueddeutsche Zeitung)
AIR FRANCE : February traffic down by 2.6% on a same number of days basis / Load factor down 1.2 points to 74.3%
TELEFONICA : France Telecom wants to work with Vodafone & Jazztel to roll out a fibre optic network in Spain to compete with TEF
OLD MUTUAL had its credit rating cut one step to BBB+ from A- by Fitch
NESTE OIL said it will shut its 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) Porvoo refinery for a more than 5-week full-scale maintenance in 2010.
RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS
Fugro / Belgacom / Italcementi / Veolia Environnement sales / Eiffage /
Today
WPP / Fugro
Fortis / Continental / Ciment Français / Acerinox / Texas Instruments Mid
Monday RFedEx ($0.11) / HP ($0.08)
Quarter
Roche AGM / Walt Disney / Caterpillar analyst
Tuesday Bulgari / EADS / E.On / Finmeccanica / SBM Offshore / Metropole TV meeting / Hospitality & Gaming conf at Deutsche
Bank / Transportation conf at JP Morgan
Wednesday Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / JC Decaux / Deutsche Lufthansa / EnelTUI Travel (GBp 7.666667) / Coca
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

6-Mar-09 BOLT
/ International Power / Lagardere Groupe / Ingenico / National Cola Co ($0.41)
Semiconductor / Bulgari / Terna / Hannover Re
Thursday Carrefour / Aegon final / ADP / Delhaize / Geberit
TRADING IDEAS
Once 1847 is broken, stop orders gone (watch out lunch time with US players waking up) :
BUY SAP / EON / REPSOL / DAIMLER on reversal Head & Shoulder possibility
BUY RENAULT / AXA / NOKIA to play recovery
BUY ENI / TOTAL / PHILIPS / BAYER / BASF on double bottom possibility
BUY the dollar to play US will manage a recovery sooner than Europe

BUY FTE / SELL TEF // BUY NOVARTIS / SELL SANOFI // BUY PHILIPS / SELL ASML // BUY SIEMENS / SELL ALSTOM
BROKER METEOROLOGY

ALLIANZ ......................................RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT ................................................................................................. BY HSBC

BUREAU VERITAS .....................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................................................................... BY UBS

DNB NOR ....................................RATED NEW BUY ......................................................................................................... BY NOMURA

DANSKE BANK ..........................RATED NEW REDUCE .................................................................................................. BY NOMURA
AVIVA ..........................................CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT .................................................................................................... BY HSBC
BT ................................................CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM EQUALWEIGHT ..................................... BY MORGAN STANLEY
GAMESA .....................................CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT .......................................................................... BY HSBC
VESTAS WIND ............................CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT ......................................................................... BY HSBC

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

6-Mar-09 BOLT
CHART OF THE DAY
Fed and ECB rates
since 1999

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fed Funds Rate ECB Rate
Source : Bloomberg

At the opposite of the Fed which had an exceptional reactivity in its economic policy to fight the economic crisis, the European Central
Bank despite the fact that the Euro area is facing its worst recession since world war two as the Gross domestic product is revealing
year on year data extremely low, as the unemployment is skyrocketing, as some European countries are near to a social crisis and
the euro area inflation is around 1,0% meaning at an historical low level there is nothing to do. Indeed the European Central Bank cut
its refi rate but only of 50 bp Meaning that the European institution is answering to an exceptional situation by a normal reaction

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
09.30 GMT United Kingdom PPI output February 0,1%,+3,1%YoY 0,1%,+3,5%YoY
09.30 GMT United Kingdom PPI output core February 0,2%,+3,7%YoY 0,4%,+4,1%YoY
13.30 GMT United-States Change in Nonfarmpayrolls February - 625 000 - 650 000 -598 000
13.30 GMT United-States Unemployment rate February 7,9% 7,9% 7,6%
13.30 GMT United-States Change in manufacturing payrolls February -170 000 -200 000 - 207 000
13.30 GMT United-States Average hourly earnings February 0,3%MoM 0,2%,+3,8%YoY 0,3%,+3,9%YoY
13.30 GMT United-States Average weekly hours February 33,3 33,3
20.00 GMT United-States Consumer credit January $ - 5,0 billion $ - 6,6 billion

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 6594,4 - 8,14% - 24,86% EUR/USD 1,2638 -0,41% -9,70%
S&P 500 682,6 - 9,29% - 24,43% EUR/JPY 123,77 0,03% -2,53%
Nas daq 1299,6 - 6,59% - 17,59% USD/JPY 97,94 -0,38% 7,46%
CA C 40 2569,6 - 6,38% - 20,15% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 3695,5 - 6,27% - 23,17% Brent $/b 44,7 -0,67% 6,82%
Eur os tox x 50 1852,3 - 8,36% - 24,32% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 161,6 - 8,14% - 18,54% Gold $/oz 938,8 -0,38% 6,43%
FTSE 100 3529,9 - 9,79% - 20,39% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7173,1 - 0,33% - 19,04% Central Banks* 0,25 1,50 0,09
Shanghai Comp 2204,2 4,71% 21,06% Overnight 0,20 1,10 0,09
Sens ex ( India) 8250,3 - 8,45% - 14,48% 3 Months 0,20 0,79 0,26
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 671,9 - 0,06% 8,46% 10 Y ears** 2,84 3,02 1,30
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 37368,9 - 2,13% - 0,48% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

6-Mar-09 BOLT
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW
Watch in the United-States the change in Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for February due at 13.30 GMT. The
deterioration of the labour market will pursue its lasting trend. The nonfarm payrolls are expecting to sharply decrease and the
unemployment rate is expected to rise. Indeed the global economic downturn add to the credit crisis are cutting external and domestic
demand forcing companies to cut jobs. Keep an eye on the release of the average hourly earnings for February due at 13.30 GMT as
well and expected to slightly increase./JB

ECONOMY

UNITED-STATES : FACTORY ORDERS FALL FOR SIXTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN JANUARY

After reaching 0.7% in July, factory orders fell for sixth consecutive month and dropped in January of 1.9% (forecast -3.5%). This
lasting down trend is mainly led by the global economic downturn reducing sharply the demand for American goods abroad and to the
credit crunch cutting household purchase power and reducing the domestic demand forcing companies to cut jobs (5 106 00
continuing claims and 639 000 initial jobless claims last week).In order to stop the deepening recession President Barack Obama
enacted last month a $ 787 billion recovery plan mainly based on investment and on the modernization of the economy.

EURO ZONE : THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK CUT ITS REFI RATE OF 50 BP
Despite the fact that the Euro area is facing its worst recession since world war two as the Gross domestic product is revealing year
on year data extremely low, as the unemployment is skyrocketing, as some European countries are near to a social crisis and the
euro area inflation is around 1,0% meaning at an historical low level there is nothing to do. Indeed the European Central Bank cut its
refi rate but only of 50 bp. Meaning that the European institution is answering to an exceptional situation by a normal reaction. Indeed
the refi rate is still way too high according to the economic fundamentals. Beginning of April we will know the inflation data for March
which should be around 0.5%,consequently the European Central Bank will have no choice than to cut its refi rate to 1.0%.

UNITED KINGDOM : THE BANK OF ENGLAND CUT ITS LEADING RATE OF 50 BP TO REACH 0.50%
After cutting its leading rate of 50 bp February 5 th to reach 1%, the Bank of England proceed again to a cut of 50 bp. This cut was
expected as the United Kingdom is now officially in recession (the GDP doped of 1.5% at the fourth quarter after dropping of 0.7% at
the third quarter). Indeed the United Kingdom is facing the deepest recession of its history as the real estate bubble exploded , and as
the credit crunch is strongly hitting Britain households very exposed to the debts. Consequently the Bank of England makes all what
is in is power to save the economy and will proceed as well to quantitative easing measures.

EURO ZONE : THE SECOND RELEASE OF GDP CONFIRMED THE DEEPNESS OF THE RECESION
The preliminary release of the euro area’s GDP at (-1.5%,-1.3%YoY) revealed to be slightly worst than the first estimation(-1.5%,-
1.2% YoY). If we look into the breakdown we see that the fall of the GDP was widely led by a fall in exports (-7.3%) and a sharp drop
in investments (-2.7%), the domestic demand fell as well with a drop of 0.9% of household demand. This second release of the GDP
confirmed the deepness of the recession in the euro area as most of the growth motors are down. Europe is an economic non
symmetric area with no global budget and the weakness of the construction of the euro area is now put in perspective because of the
global economic crisis. In the long run to end this deep recession the euro must retreat to $1.10, the European Central Bank leading
rate must drop to 1% as soon as possible and the euro area must have a coordinate revival plan./JB
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

6-Mar-09 BOLT
VIXindex: impliedvolatilityontheS&P500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009 06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates: 10-year Treasuryyield 10-year TreasuryspreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009 06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009 06/03/2007 06/09/2007 06/03/2008 06/09/2008 06/03/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg