Using neural networks to predict slope movements

F. Mayoraz, T. Cornu, L. Vulliet Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland

ABSTRACT : The prediction of slope movements with time is of great importance as it may affect the safety of constructions, infrastructures and human life. In this paper, a new approach of prediction is proposed, making use of neural networks. The type of network is presented first, and the technique is then applied to two landslides in Switzerland (La Chenaula) and in France (Salldes). Input parameters are discussed in detail (velocity, pore pressure and rainfalls) as well as training and testing procedures. It is shown that neural networks are easier to implement and more general than statistical regressive models, and give reliable results.

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Predicting landslide movements The necessity of predicting the occurrence and the kinematics of landslide is quite obvious and tends to increase with increasing urbanism needs (buildings and infrastructures constructed on landslide prone area). As part of a maintenance program, prediction models can be used to plan rehabilitation works; included in an alarm system, they may even save human lives. However, the task is anything but simple. To start with, boundary conditions are not easily known: geometry of the free surface and the sliding base - if any -, groundwater seepage conditions, time evolution of rainfalls, etc. Then the material behavior depends on complex features, on which very limited information exists : soil/rock type, heterogeneities, macro-structure, stress-strain-time material behavior, hydromechanical coupling, etc. Finally, financial resources are always limited and prevent from undertaking in-depth hydro-geotechnical investigations. Two very different but complementary approaches are possible: the mechanical approach, using continuum theory of varying complexity, and the statistical approach including regression analysis, time series analysis or hydrology-derived reservoir models. Neural networks belong to the second (statistical) category but are believed to be even more efficient if implemented in the heart of mechanical models from the first category (for exam-

ple by using neural networks for the boundary conditions or even in place of a constitutive model - see Ghaboussi et al. 1994). This paper is a first attempt to predict slope movements by neural networks based on parameters such as rainfalls, pore pressure and displacements. 1.2 Neural networks in civil engineering Well known in electrical science, operational or regulation research, artificial neural networks (ANN) are starting to be very popular in civil engineering. In fact, very recent publications show a fast growth of interest in all fields including the geotechnical domain: constitutive modeling, pile dynamic testing, soil compaction, soil classification, finite element analysis coupled with neural networks, expert systems, etc. (see for example the proceedings edited by Pande & Petruszczak 1995, or Siriwardane & Zaman 1994). It is the belief of the authors that neural networks constitute a promising tool for the engineering world, and strengthen what is now called soft computing , a mimic of biological processes (including fuzzy logic, etc.). 2. FUNCTION APPROXIMATION WITH ANN 2.1 Multilayered neural net structure Multilayered perceptrons (MLPs) are the most common type of artificial neural networks (ANN) used for both classification and function approxi-

mation (Lippmann 1987) . In this section, a quick overview of the use of MLPs is presented for function approximation and the corresponding learning techniques are discussed. The structure of MLPs is based on the widely known basic neuron shown on Figure 1. A basic neuron with N inputs contains N adjustable weights w1, w2, ..., wN and performs a weighted sum of its inputs, threshold by a non-linear function. In MLP algorithms, the threshold function is usually a sigmod function of the form (see Figure 1): f ( ) = 1 1 + e ( ) (1)

f() 1

f
0
Figure 1. Basic neuron and sigmod function. The so called backpropagation principle (LeCun 1985) makes it possible to compute the gradient of the output error E of the multilayered neural net, usually defined as:
k k ,..., x N ) ok )2 E = (T ( x1k , x 2 k =1 P

2.1 Transfer function of an MLP It has been shown that a network composed of one intermediate layer of basic neurons and of one output neuron without threshold function (Figure 2) is a universal approximator. Such a network can approximate any given function with sufficient precision, provided that enough neurons are given on the intermediate layer (Leshno et al. 1993). Given a set of points in the N-dimensional inputs space, {( x 1 k ,x 2 k ,...,x N k )}, k={ 1,2,...,P} and the set of corresponding outputs, {ok}, the learning process is then reduced to a multidimensional non constrained optimization process in the space defined by every weight of the system. A learning algorithm tries to fit the transfer function T to the data. This transfer function may be expressed as follows: T ( x1 , x 2 ,..., x N ) = vi f ( wij x j j )
i =1 j =1 N M

(3)

(2)

where x j are the input values, N and M are the number of inputs and the number of neurons in the intermediate layer respectively, and P is the number of inputs vectors in the training set; w ij are the weights of the connections between the inputs and the neurons of the intermediate layer, v i the weights of the connections between the neurons of the intermediate layer and the output neuron; j are the biases of the neurons of the intermediate layer, is the bias of the output neuron and f the sigmod function defined above. 2.2 Supervised learning methods for MLPs The purpose of supervised learning algorithms for MLPs is to find the proper weight configuration so as to approximate a given function. These algorithms are usually based on iterative gradient descent methods or on Gauss-Newton methods.

with respect to each of the connection weights. The partial derivative with respect to weights of non terminal layers are computed recurrently as a function of the one of the next layer. The first attempts to run backpropagation based learning on MLPs used simple gradient methods with either constant gradient step or steps varying according to predetermined laws. These first methods where somewhat hampered by the need of guessing a good parameterization of the gradient step. From these first attempts, backpropagation based learning gained the reputation of being a slow, unreliable mechanism, very sensitive to parameter tuning. Sophisticated optimization algorithms from operational research have been adapted to learning with MLPs, improving convergence speed and quality of the method, and providing automatic tuning of the gradient step at each iteration. Conjugate gradient methods and quasi-Newtonian methods have been successfully applied to this field (for a survey see Battiti 1992). Among these methods, the most reliable are the well known Polack-Ribiere conjugate gradient method and the so called memoryless BFGS method (Shanno 1978). The Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm, often used in non linear least squares problems, has been adapted to learning in MLPs (Hagan and Menhaj 1994). It is an approximation to Newton's method instead of a pure gradient descent. Though its memory requirements make it impractical for large neural networks, it compares favorably against conjugate gradient techniques for learning in neural networks of reasonable size. This is the algorithm used in this study.

2.3 On the optimal number of hidden neurons The above mentioned learning methods for MLPs assume a predetermined number of neurons and a fixed connectivity pattern. The hidden neurons of a neural network are the neurons in the intermediate layers. While the number of input and output neurons are determined by the respective number of input and output parameters of the current application, the choice of the number of hidden neurons is usually not as easy. When there are too few hidden neurons, the neural network will not be able to solve the learning problem. If there are too many, the convergence of the learning algorithm will be slowed down, might even be compromised due to local minima; in addition, there is a risk of overfitting in this case, i.e. of bad classification performance on new situations that are not part of the learning set. Though a few constructive learning algorithms are currently under investigation to solve this problem, the number of intermediate neurons is usually decided in a heuristic way. In our work, the optimal number of hidden neurons is determined empirically as the minimal number of neurons for which prediction performance is satisfying, without leading to overfitting or exaggerately long learning times. 3. NETWORK CONFIGURATION The network chosen in our case is characterized by one hidden layer and one output layer with only one neuron. Every input neurons are connected to every neurons of the hidden layer (see Figure 2). The threshold function is a sigmod function for the hidden layer and is linear for the output layer. 3.1 Choice of input parameters Three types of input parameters are used in this analysis: the rainfalls, the pore pressure and the velocity. From the raw meteorological data on rainfalls different operations are needed: First, evapotranspiration is substracted to obtain the net rainfalls. Then, to eliminate noise a moving average on a three days period is used and negative values are set to zero. In order to test the time response of the landslide to rainfalls four net rainfalls values are considered, i.e. one, two, three, resp. four weeks before the considered time. To take into account the volume of rain over some period three values are considered, i.e. the sums of the last one, two, resp. three weeks. This gives a total of seven input parameters for the rain (the Pl 3 in Figure 2). Secondly, for the pore-water pressures, the present value as well as the value one resp. two days before present are used, thus a total of three input parameters for the pore-pressure (P(t) to P(t-2) in Figure 2). Finally, the last two input parameters (V5 in Figure 2) are the sliding velocity one day, resp. two days before the present time. 3.2 Output parameter Instead of predicting a future displacement, that would be an explicit function of time, it has been chosen to predict the future velocity, thus respecting material objectivity. Therefore, the output of the model is the velocity at present time and the plotted results are smoothed out by calculating five days moving averages. 4. SITES CONSIDERED 4.1 La Chenaula landslide 4.1.1 General context The landslide of La Chenaula is the first of the two landslides considered in this paper. It is situated East of the city of Lausanne in Switzerland and covers an area of 2.5 ha. The thickness of the sliding mass is about 12 m; the material is a soft highly plastic silty clay overlaying a molassic substratum. The average slope angle is 10 and the sliding sur-

inputs Pl 7 Pl 14 Pl 28 Pl3 (t-7) Pl3 (t-14) Pl3 (t-21) Pl3 (t-28) P (t) P (t-1) P (t-2) V5(t-1) V5(t-2)

hidden layer

output layer

V5 (t)

Figure 2. Network geometry and inputs (V5 = velocity average on a 5 days period, P = pore pressure, Pl3 = rainfalls average on a 3 days period, Pl = rainfalls).

face is more or less parallel to the terrain. The river Chandelar flows at the foot of the landslide. The sliding mass can be divided into two zones of different sliding velocities (DUTI 1986): fast and slow. We only treat here the zone of fast movements where, in April 1983, a catastrophic acceleration moved the mass 15 m in three days (Vavg= 5 m/day). 4.1.2 Field instrumentation In December 1980, the Chenaula landslide was instrumented with a series of inclinometric tubes in which readings were taken about every month. Although most inclinometers functioned until the catastrophic movement, the tubes installed in the zone of rapid sliding were soon sheared. One of them was then transformed into an open-pipe piezometer equipped with an automatic limnigraph; water levels were recorded continuously until April 1983. An important geodetic mesh was put in place in Winter 1981 to record surface displacements. The large number of measuring points cover a wide zone and have been surveyed regularly. 4.1.3 Input data Input data are given as daily averages. As no inclinometric measurements are available in the fast moving zone since the time the tubes were cut, a correlation between geodetic and inclinometric measurements in the slow moving zone is used to find the displacements at the sliding surface in the fast zone based on surface measurement. Considering movement at the sliding surface permits to neglect effects like error cone of the inclinometer reading, surface creep, etc. Daily values are obtained by extrapolating between discrete readings with a differentiable interpolation function. Piezometric data are given by the limnigraph. Rainfall intensity is obtained from a Federal meteo station based in Pully, only a few kilometers away. 4.2 Salldes landslide 4.2.1 General context The second landslide analyzed here is at Salldes near Clermont-Ferrand (France); it has been thourouly studied by the Laboratoire des Ponts et Chausses (LPC). The sliding mass concerns an area of 250 m in length and is composed of clayey colluvium of about 6 m in thickness overlying a marl and marly limestones substratum. The sliding surface is inclined by only 7 with respect to horizontal.

As a difference with the La Chenaula landslide, Salldes is not characterized by a catastrophic movement but by a slow and varying velocity. 4.2.2 Field instrumentation As the site of Salldes was used in a research project on the behavior of a road fill built on a creeping slope the instrumentation is very complete and connected to an automatic data acquisition system (Cartier & Pouget, 1988). Thus continuous readings of rainfalls, pore-water pressures and displacements are available between 1988 and 1992. They are quite homogeneous in space and thus a single set of data can be used for the entire site. Piezometric readings are taken close to the sliding surface with an electric pressure transducer. Displacements are derived from angular measurements done with a servo-accelerometer installed in the zone of maximum shear strains. 4.2.3 Input data In the present analysis of Salldes landslide, the data from mainly 1992 are used. It corresponds to the period of larger variations in displacements. Here again, daily average values are considered. These values are not interpolated from discrete readings as in La Chenaula but are taken directly from the acquisition system. The displacements as a function of time are characterized by rapid accelerations (velocity peaks) followed by periods of rest. 5. SIMULATIONS RESULTS 5.1 Procedure For both cases (La Chenaula and Salldes landslides), the number of input vectors is given in Table 1. For the landslide of La Chenaula, the total analyzed period is 550 days, beginning September 2nd 1981. In the case of Salldes, the total analyzed period is 365 days, starting February 25th 1992. The input vectors are divided into three sets. The first one is the training set, used by the algorithm to find the weights configuration. The second one is the validation set. It is used to avoid overfitting : periodically, the network applies the Table 1. Dimension of the input vectors Case Number and position of vectors per set total training valid. test [d] [d] [d] [d] 1-415 1-216 416-435 217-236 416-550 237-365

Chenaula 1-550 Salldes 1-365

weights resulting of the training on this set; as soon as the global error on this set reaches a minimum, iterations are stopped. The third set is the test set, which uses the previously determined weights on data that the network never saw. In order for this special algorithm to work properly the size of the training and validation sets is such that they both contained at least one velocity peak. It is shown that convergence of the training algorithm is very dependent on the random initialization of weights. In some cases, the algorithm gets stuck in local minima, but this can be easily detected automatically; in these cases, the global output error on the training set doesn't decrease satisfactorily. Training has to be launched again with new random values. Only a few trials are needed to find out a good initial weights configuration. For the Salldes case only, a first simulation is also tried out to predict the pore pressure based on the rainfalls and on previous piezometric measurements. 5.2 Predicting pore-water pressure Since it is well known that velocity is mainly influenced by the effective stress state, pore-pressure is an important controlling parameter. It is interesting to find out if the pore pressure could be predicted directly from the rainfalls (this could save some costly instrumentation). The test has been performed on Salldes only and the results of the prediction is shown on Figure 3. They are quite encouraging. However comments must be added : First, the previous pore pressure values P(t-1 day) and P(t-2 days) are used and their weights turn out to be very large, i.e. they mainly govern the prediction. Other simulation taking only the rainfalls into account give poor results. Similar conclusions were drawn by Pouget when using a regressive statistical model (Pouget & Livet 1994). This can be an indication of the complexity of the groundwater seepage behavior. 5.3 Predicting velocity (La Chenaula) In the case of La Chenaula landslide, the prediction of the sliding velocity is presented in Figure 4. Again, the result is quite good. Here, the comments are different that previously: the rainfalls turn out to be very important in the quality of the prediction. It is illustrated in Figure 5, where a network only fed with the values of velocities V5(t-1) and V5(t-2) exhibits bad results on the test set, though the convergence of training is good. The neural network is able to find out by itself the relative influence of the input parameters. A statistical model for the pore pressure in Salldes would not apply to the sliding velocity in La Chenaula.

40

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porepressure [kPa]

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0 220

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Figure 3. Prediction of the pore pressure (Salldes); 8 neurons in the hidden layer; mean error = 0.87 kPa ( 4.7 % of mean pressure).
0.7

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Figure 4. Prediction of the velocity (La Chenaula); 8 neurons in the hidden layer; mean error = 0.02 cm/d (4.6 % of mean velocity).
0.8

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Figure 5. Prediction of the velocity (La Chenaula); 8 neurons in the hidden layer; mean error = 0.29 cm/d (68 % of mean velocity).

2.5

____ calculated

the LPC in Clermont-Ferrand for giving us the data for the Salldes case, and to Mrs. A. Osa-Wyser for the initial pre-processing of the La Chenaula landslide data set. REFERENCES

velocity [104 rad/d]

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Figure 6. Prediction of the velocity (Salldes); 10 neurons in the hidden layer; mean error = 0.13*10-4 rad/d (28 % of mean velocity).

5.4 Predicting velocity (Salldes) In the case of Salldes landslide, the prediction of the sliding velocity is presented in Figure 6, showing very good results. Similarly to the pore pressure prediction, the main weights are put on the previous values of velocity instead of simply using the pore-pressure and the rainfalls. It is shown that results of simulations without validation set tend to give generally very good convergences on the training set but less precise predictions on the test set. 6. CONCLUSION It as been shown that a neural network can be of great value in predicting the movements of landslides. The main advantages are related to the fact that almost the same network architecture can be used for different sites and different output parameter. A careful check of weight values will give clues about the controlling inputs parameters. The presented results are short term predictions. In order to predict on a longer period an adaptive recurrent approach is now under study. Another important conclusion is that the quality of input data is essential; in most studied case, readings are done manually at various intervals in time. The use of neural network in this field would require automatic data acquisition systems. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was supported in part by the Swiss Federal Highway Administration, grant no 54/95, 4217.01; this contribution is gratefully acknowledged. We would like to thank Mr. P. Pouget of

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