MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF DYNAMICS OF DENGUE TRANSMISSION

Dilruk Gallage University of Colombo Sri Lanka

March 21, 2013

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 1 / OF 13 D

Table of contents

Overview Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP Equilibrium points Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP Transmission model of xed the eect of EIP Transmission model of varying the eect of EIP Future study

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 2 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background
About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background
About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? specic Treatment hasnt been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background
About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? specic Treatment hasnt been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. Were going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background
About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? specic Treatment hasnt been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. Were going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus. Considering SIR- model.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Overview

Background
About 100 million people infected by dengue disease. About 35,000 cases recorded in Sri lanka in 2009. Why do we handle this research? specic Treatment hasnt been found yet. No vaccine is available. Virus is spread by mosquitoes. Outbreak occurrence depends on many factors, such as rainfall, temperature,..ect. Were going to control the transmission of dengue and choosing a suitable mathematical model to control spreading dengue virus. Considering SIR- model.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 3 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 4 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP

Normalizing above system of dierential equations by letting S = Ih Sv Iv v v h I =N ,R=R N , S = Nv and I = Nv then dS = h SI v h S dt dI = h SI v (h + r )I dt dI v = v (1 I v )I v I v dt

v where v = b v and h = nh with n = D / N and conditions, S + I + R = 1 and S v + I v = 1.

Sh N,

(1)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 5 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP

Equilibrium points

Evaluating equilibrium points for each state

The positively invariant set
v E = {(S , I , I v ) R3 + |S + I 1 and I 1}.

For virus free state E0 = (1, 0, 0). For endemic disease state E1 = (S , I , I v ) where S = where =
b v v ,

L+ , + LR0 L=
h +r h ,

I =

R0 1 , + LR0

Iv =

(R0 1) R0 ( + L)

and R0 =

b 2 h v n v (h +r ) .

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 6 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP

Equilibrium points

Evaluating Jacobian matrix of (2), we have h I v h 0 h S h I v (h + r ) h S J= v 0 v (1 I ) v v I For virus free state E1 JE1
Eigenvalues of JE1 are h , (v + h + r ) (v + h + r )2 4v (h + r )(1 R0 ) 2

h 0 h (h + r ) h = 0 0 v v

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 7 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease without the eect of EIP

Equilibrium points

For endemic disease state E2 , h (R 1) 0 R ( + h 0 L) 0 h (R0 1) R (h + r ) JE2 = 0 ( +L) (R0 1) 0 v 1 R ( +L)

0

h (L+ ) ( +LR ) h (L+ ) ( +LR )

0 0

v (R0 1) +LR0

The characteristic polynomial of above matrix is P () = 3 + A2 + B + C where h ( + LR0 ) L+ + h L + v R0 [ ] L+ + LR0 + LR0 v h L B = 2 ] + h v R0 + (R0 1)( ) h L[ L+ + LR0 A= C = v 2 h L(R0 1)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 8 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP

dS = h S (1 k )I v h S dt dI = h S (1 k )I v (h + r )I dt dI v = v (1 I v )I v I v dt where k = 1 expv is the percentage of infected mosquitoes which are not infectious. So (1 k )I v is the number of infectious mosquitoes.

(2)

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21,DYNAMICS 2013 9 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP

Transmission model of xed the eect of EIP

With xed eect of EIP for k=.1

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 10 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP

Transmission model of xed the eect of EIP

With xed eect of EIP for k=.6

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 11 / OF 13 D

Transmission model for dengue disease with the eect of EIP

Transmission model of varying the eect of EIP

With varying the eect of EIP

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 12 / OF 13 D

Future study

Future study

want to nd parameters which are most responsible for the disease transmission. want to nd an optimal solution of objective functional to reduce infectious humans and cost of expenses such as medical treatments, pesticide,...ect.

Dilruk GallageUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL March OF 21, 2013 DYNAMICS 13 / OF 13 D