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PRO ........................................................................................................................ 5
GENERAL POLICY: US POLICY ISNT PROACTIVE ENOUGH ............................................................................................. 5 GENERAL POLICY: UNITED STATES DOESNT SHOW LEADERSHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST ................................................ 9 GENERAL POLICY: US IS UNPOPULAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST ........................................................................................ 11 GENERAL POLICY: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION DOESNT PUSH AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY IN THE MIDDLE EAST .......... 12 GENERAL POLICY: UNITED STATES DOESNT DO ENOUGH TO COMBAT ANTI-AMERICANISM .................................... 13 GENERAL POLICY: RESET HAS FAILED ....................................................................................................................... 14 ISRAEL: ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT CRITICAL TO US NATIONAL SECURITY .......................................................... 15 ISRAEL: US IS TOO HANDS OFF .................................................................................................................................... 16 ISRAEL: US MUST CONDEMN SETTLER VIOLENCE ....................................................................................................... 18 IRAN: US HAS DONE TOO LITTLE ................................................................................................................................. 19 IRAN: US POLICY LEAVES ALLIES LIKE ISRAEL ONLY HORRIBLE CHOICES ...................................................................... 22 IRAN: SANCTIONS HAVE FAILED .................................................................................................................................. 23 IRAN: MUST HAVE A RED LINE POLICY ..................................................................................................................... 26 SYRIA: US HAS DONE TOO LITTLE ................................................................................................................................ 27 SYRIA: US MUST DO MORE NOW ................................................................................................................................ 29 SYRIA: US POLICY TOWARD SYRIA IS ANTI-ISRAEL ....................................................................................................... 31 SYRIA: SHOULDNT WAIT FOR UN/INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ............................................................................. 32 EGYPT: US POLICY A DISASTER .................................................................................................................................... 35
CON ...................................................................................................................... 36
GENERAL POLICY: US BROAD MIDDLE EAST POLICY IS A SUCCESS .............................................................................. 36 GENERAL POLICY: BROAD US FOREIGN POLICY A SUCCESS ......................................................................................... 37 GENERAL POLICY: US POLICY IS AS GOOD AS IT CAN BE IN LIGHT OF CONDITIONS ..................................................... 38 GENERAL POLICY: DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL LIKELY BRING MORE HOSTILITY ...................................... 39 GENERAL POLICY: OBAMA FOREIGN POLICY ISNT APOLOGETIC ................................................................................ 40 GENERAL POLICY: US FLEXIBLE MIDEAST POLICY WAS CRITICAL TO DEAL WITH THE ARAB SPRING ........................... 41 GENERAL POLICY: US COMMITTED TO INVESTMENT IN MIDEAST AND NORTH AFRICA ............................................. 42 GENERAL POLICY: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS COMMUNICATION LINES OPEN ................................................... 43 GENERAL POLICY: MUST ALLOW TIME TO REBUILD US-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS ..................................................... 44 GENERAL POLICY: BIG MOVES ON HOLD UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION ........................................................................ 45 GENERAL POLICY: RECENT TURMOIL ISNT JUSTIFICATION FOR CRITICISM OF BROAD US POLICY ............................. 46 GENERAL POLICY: SABER RATTLING BAD .................................................................................................................... 47 ISRAEL: UNITED STATES MAKING SLOW, STEADY PROGRESS ...................................................................................... 48 ISRAEL: US POLICY IS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CONDITIONS ........................................................................................ 49 ISRAEL: ISRAELI PEOPLE BELIEVE THE US-ISRAEL RELATIONSHIP IS AS GOOD AS EVER ............................................... 50 ISRAEL: SHOULD CONTINUE WITH PUSH FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION ........................................................................ 51 ISRAEL: RED LINES BAD FOR FOREIGN POLICY ......................................................................................................... 52 IRAN: US POLICY IS APPROPRIATE ............................................................................................................................... 53 IRAN: MILITARY ACTION BAD ...................................................................................................................................... 58 IRAN: US IS TAKING COVERT ACTION AGAINST IRAN .................................................................................................. 59 IRAN: US AGAINST AN IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPON ................................................................................................... 62 IRAN: SANCTIONS POLICY WORKING .......................................................................................................................... 63 IRAN: US POLICY WONT LOCK IS UNTO A DANGEROUS WAR ..................................................................................... 67 IRAN: US CITIZENS AGAINST WAR WITH IRAN............................................................................................................. 68 IRAN: US SHOULD HAVE POLICY DISTINCT FROM ISRAEL WITH IRAN ......................................................................... 69 IRAN: CLAIMS OF IMMINENT THREAT ARE OVERBLOWN ........................................................................................... 70
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META
RESOLUTION
The November 2012 Public Forum Resolution, released on October 1, 2012, is: Resolved: Current U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East undermines our national security.
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PRO
GENERAL POLICY: US POLICY ISNT PROACTIVE ENOUGH
US POLICY IS NOT PROACTIVE ENOUGH AND LEAVES THE UNITED STATES AT THE MERCY OF EVENTS-Lee '12 *Kristen; Romney attacks Obamas Middle East policy in speech to Virginia military cadets; New York Daily News; 8 October 2012; http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/romney-slams-obama-foreign-policy-virginia-speech-article1.1177569; retrieved 11 October 2012] Romney also said the President pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq too quickly, placing the nations fragile security gains at risk. And he said Obamas policies have left the U.S. at the mercy of events, including last months attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, where Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans were killed. Romney cast the attack in Libya as part of a larger trend of anti-American violence in the region. When we look at the Middle East today . . . it is clear that the risk of conflict in the region is higher now than when the President took office, he said. CURRENT POLICY ISN'T PROACTIVE ENOUGH FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST-Jewish Telegraphic Agency '12 [Romney decries Obama Middle East policy in foreign policy speech; 9 October 2012; http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/10/09/3108836/romney-decries-obama-middle-east-policy-in-foreign-policyspeech; retrieved 11 October 2012] President Obama has led "from behind" on the Middle East, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney charged in a foreign policy speech. Romney, in a speech Monday at the Virginia Military Institute, said the attacks last month in Libya that left four American diplomats dead "were the deliberate work of terrorists who use violence to impose their dark ideology on others, especially women and girls; who are fighting to control much of the Middle East today; and who seek to wage perpetual war on the West." "They are expressions of a larger struggle that is playing out across the broader Middle East - a region that is now in the midst of the most profound upheaval in a century." Romney called out Obama for failing "to use Americas great power to shape history - not to lead from behind, leaving our destiny at the mercy of events."
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UNITED STATES NOT ENGAGED ENOUGH WITH THE THREATS IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN REGION-Jewish Telegraphic Agency '12 [Romney decries Obama Middle East policy in foreign policy speech; 9 October 2012; http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/10/09/3108836/romney-decries-obama-middle-east-policy-in-foreign-policyspeech; retrieved 11 October 2012] Romney also discussed Iran and its nuclear weapons program. "Iran today has never been closer to a nuclear weapons capability. It has never posed a greater danger to our friends, our allies, and to us," he said. Romney also discussed the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, and the uncontrolled violence by the Assad regime in Syria, concluding that "it is clear that the risk of conflict in the region is higher now than when the President took office." "We cannot support our friends and defeat our enemies in the Middle East when our words are not backed up by deeds, when our defense spending is being arbitrarily and deeply cut, when we have no trade agenda to speak of, and the perception of our strategy is not one of partnership, but of passivity," Romney said. LACK OF US ACTION THREATENS INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST-Sharqieh '12 [Ibrahim; Deputy Director, Brookings Doha Center; Obama Must Stand Up to Netanyahu on Israeli Settler Violence; Christian Science Monitor; 9 October 2012; http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/10/09-obama-israelisettlers-sharqieh; retrieved 11 October 2012] There is increasing evidence to suggest that the Israeli government has been taking a passive and complicit role in dealing with settler terrorism. Dan Halutz, former Israeli Army chief of staff, recently told the Israeli Army radio that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus government is not doing enough to stop settler violence. If we wanted, we could catch them and when we want to, we will, Mr. Halutz said. Furthermore, Haaretz and Channel 2 television reported in February 2012 that an Israeli justice minister was caught on tape advising right-wingers on how to seek pardons for Jewish terrorists which he might later approve. A March 2012 report by senior European Union officials said that *d+iscriminatory protections and privileges for settlers compound...abuses and create an environment in which settlers can act with apparent impunity. The report said these and other actions have created the perception that settler violence enjoys the tacit support of the state of Israel. Successive Israeli governments of all ideological stripes left, right, and center can be held responsible for perpetuating the root causes of settler terrorism by creating and nurturing the settlement movement in the West Bank. They have largely pursued or refused to fully curb this policy, despite international consensus on the illegality of building those settlements. The U.S. government has been right to consistently oppose Israeli policies on settlements as a serious obstacle to achieving peace and stability in the region. However, the U.S. failure to back up that rhetoric with action has helped create the monster of settler terrorism that is now proving so difficult to contain. While President Obama made the right decision in demanding a settlement freeze, his failure to back up his demand allowed the Netanyahu government to launch the most aggressive settlement policy to date. Settlement activities in the Palestinian territories pose a structural threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East. As such, Washington must not shy away from confronting them. The U.S. State Department listing settler attacks as terrorist incidents clearly indicates a concern that such attacks may trigger a response from the Palestinians that could push the area into a new cycle of violence, something the United States cannot afford at a time of major upheaval and turmoil throughout the region.
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US HAS IGNORED SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST-Dunne '12 [Charles; Scholar at the Middle East Institute; Barack Obama Sends Mixed Messages With Middle East Policy; US News and World Report Debate Club; 27 September 2012; http://www.usnews.com/debate-club/has-obama-properlyhandled-the-arab-spring/barack-obama-sends-mixed-messages-with-middle-east-policy; retrieved 11 October 2012] In the Persian Gulf, the president has let security relationships trump human rights. No public pressure has been placed on Saudi Arabia to reform, let alone to cease its anti-reform efforts elsewhere, and the administration announced a $53 million arms deal with Bahrain despite serious human rights violations. While the president has repeatedly called for the ouster of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the administration has not committed support to the armed rebellion even after 25,000 Syrian deaths. Iraq, which has been largely forgotten, was transitioning to democracy long before the Arab Spring came along. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN LONG ON RHETORIC AND SHORT ON ACTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST-Dunne '12 [Charles; Scholar at the Middle East Institute; Barack Obama Sends Mixed Messages With Middle East Policy; US News and World Report Debate Club; 27 September 2012; http://www.usnews.com/debate-club/has-obama-properlyhandled-the-arab-spring/barack-obama-sends-mixed-messages-with-middle-east-policy; retrieved 11 October 2012] There have been successes, to be sure. The intervention in Libya doubtless saved many lives and set the country on the path to democracy. Constructive engagement on the economic front helps emerging democracies buy time to address domestic problems and further reform. But the inconsistency between rhetoric and action has sent badly mixed signals to Arab publics, and the higher priority consistently awarded to security issues over human rights concerns has encouraged autocrats in their belief that they can weather the democratic storm. If the administration were truly prepared to act on the president's words and implement policies that treat the advance of democracy in the Middle East as a national security interest, the United States would go far in advancing its long-term desire for freedom and stability.
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DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RISK TO THE UNITED STATES, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION POLICY TOWARDS IRAN HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER AND PUTS THE WORLD AT RISK-Zubrin '12 *Robert; Fellow with the Center for Security Policy; Obamas Iran Policy Risks a Global Crash; U.S. deterrence is dead. So what will happen now?; National Review Online; 28 September 2012; http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/328746/obama-s-iran-policy-risks-global-crash-robert-zubrin; retrieved 11 October 2012] The crisis caused by Irans nuclear program could soon come to a head in a way that will affect every American. Here are the facts: 1. Iran is building an atomic bomb. Of this there can be no doubt. Iran is mass-producing 20 percentenriched uranium235. Commercial reactors require only 3 percentenriched U-235; clearly, a factory producing 20 percentenriched fissile material is part of a nuclear-weapons program. 2. The sanctions designed to stop the program are not working. In fact, according to a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), far from slowing down, Iran has doubled its rate of production. 3. Iranian bomb capability is imminent. While the U.S. military prefers its U-235 to be 93 percentenriched, for less picky customers 20 percentenriched material is more than good enough to do the job. With proper design, about 250 kilograms of the stuff are enough to make a nuclear weapon. According to the IAEA, Iran already has 190 kilograms of 20 percentenriched U-235, of which 120 kilograms are available for bomb production; and the country is producing more material at a rate of 13 kilograms per month. Assuming that the IAEA is correct in its figures, it will take Iran only another ten months to have enough 20 percentenriched U-235 to build a bomb. So what is the American response? According to David Sanger and Eric Schmitt, writing in the September 2 New York Times, the Obama administration is currently trying to calm Israel, so as to dissuade it from undertaking a military strike to stop the Iranian bomb program. In addition, Sanger and Schmitt report that President Obama has ruled out any U.S. military action that might harm ordinary Iranians or even inconvenience them by damaging the electrical grid that powers the bomb-making plants. We should avoid all such action, administration representatives say, in order to give sanctions time to work. This policy of inaction presents Israel with a stark choice. As the IAEA report makes clear, it is not sanctions but bomb makers who are being given time to do their work. Indeed, it is quite clear that, even if strong sanctions might work in principle, no policy that forbears from imposing economic difficulties on ordinary Iranians could ever include measures tough enough to effectively dissuade the regime; and, obviously, the measures thus far have not dissuaded the regime. Furthermore, since the administration has ruled out any action that might harm ordinary Iranians, it has effectively eliminated the threat of U.S. retaliation to deter a strike. After all, it is inconceivable that a government so squeamish as to forbear from risking the accidental deaths of a few people in order to prevent a nuclear attack would deliberately kill millions in revenge once the damage had already been done.
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GENERAL POLICY: UNITED STATES DOESNT SHOW LEADERSHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST
US POLICY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE EAST IS TO LEAD FROM BEHIND-Robinson '12 [Dan; Romney Criticizes Obama Middle East Policy; Voice of America News; 7 October 2012; http://www.voanews.com/articleprintview/1522214.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] He focused mostly on the Middle East, where Mr. Romney said attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities, including one that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya, were not random acts, but "expressions of a larger struggle" playing out in the region. The former Massachusetts governor said that after some time, President Obama "finally conceded" that the Libya attack was likely the work of terrorists. Romney accused the president of failing to lead. "I want to be very clear. The blame for the murder of our people in Libya and the attacks on our embassies in so many other countries lies solely with those who carried them out, no one else. But it is the responsibility of our president to use Americas great power to shape history, not to lead from behind, leaving our destiny at the mercy of events. Unfortunately, that is exactly where we find ourselves in the Middle East under President Obama," he said. OBAMA HAS NO LIVED UP TO PROMISES MADE ON FOREIGN POLICY DURING THE 2008 ELECTION-O'Hanlon '12 [Michael; Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute; Putting Obama's Middle East policy in perspective; CNN's Global Public Square; 14 September 2012; http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/14/putting-obamas-middle-eastpolicy-in-perspective/; retrieved 11 October 2012] I say this as someone who was dubious about Obama's big promises during his 2007/2008 campaign. The talk of reconciling with dictators, stemming climate change, making a big dent against global poverty, working towards a nuclear-free world, achieving Middle East peace and healing the broader breach with the Islamic world was unrealistic and, for me at least, overdone. In fairness, the big vision did help Obama get elected, and it did excite the world at large about his presidency. But that also set up false expectations around the world about what he could really do. And that has led to disappointment, especially in the Middle East. (In Europe, Obama is still popular. In much of Asia, President George W. Bush was never so unpopular and the U.S. stock was never so low prior to Obama's inauguration.) Throughout the Islamic world, Obama's standing as measured by public opinion polls is similar to Bush's. That is surely a disappointment.
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UNITED STATES HAS DISENGAGED WITH THE MIDDLE EAST, MUCH TO OUR DETREMENT-Rivkin and Casey '12 [David B. and Lee A., Both Washington-Area Attorneys; Not Just the Middle East: Obama Foreign Policy Record Is Appalling; the Daily Beast; 21 September 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/21/not-just-themiddle-east-obama-foreign-policy-record-is-appalling.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] But all of this flawed crisis management pales in comparison with the administrations strategic failures. The organizing principle of the administrations foreign policy is one of weakness and passivitywhether in dealing with Russia, China, or Venezuelacoupled with a conspicuous rhetorical abdication of American leadership, evident in speeches by the president, secretary of state, and other administration officials. The ultimate irony for an administration oft-praised for superior rhetoric is that in todays tightly knit global environment, words have palpable consequences. This overarching problem is accentuated by the fact that everybody in the Middle Eastour friends, foes, and folks in betweenhas correctly concluded that the administration has begun Americas disengagement from the region, on a scale unseen since the days of the British withdrawal from East of Suez. This has manifested itself in virtually every facet of our Middle East policy, from our failure to maintain any American military presence in Iraq and the consequent loss of diplomatic and economic influence in Baghdad; to Washingtons unwillingness to rally the American public to support our military efforts in Afghanistan and its repeated snubs of our strongest traditional Middle East ally, Israel; to our leading from behind on Libya and the total failure to lead from any direction on Syria; and last but not least, to our timidity in confronting the Iranian nuclear weapons program. As a result, the Middle East elites and the proverbial Arab street have concluded that the U.S. is a waning power, Israels future is one of a besieged state that someday may disappear from the regional chessboard, and Iran has an excellent chance of becoming a regional hegemon, to be feared and placated. These are self-inflicted wounds. The American disengagement has not been caused by military defeat or some adverse international developments that we have tried but failed to stop, but by an administration that has profoundly misunderstood the kind of world we live in, the types of threats we confront, and what constitutes vital American interests. The administration has amassed not just a middling or even moderately bad foreign-policy record, but an appalling one. It is this record that is shaping the way the governments in the Middle East are handling the antiAmerican unrest. Unless the record is decisively reversed, it will lead to many disastrous developments down the road.
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GENERAL POLICY: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION DOESNT PUSH AMERICAN PHILOSOPHY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S RHETORICAL STRATEGY DOESN'T GIVE THE JUSTIFICATION OF OUR POLICIES, TO OUR OWN DETRIMENT-Rivkin and Casey '12 [David B. and Lee A., Both Washington-Area Attorneys; Not Just the Middle East: Obama Foreign Policy Record Is Appalling; the Daily Beast; 21 September 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/21/not-just-themiddle-east-obama-foreign-policy-record-is-appalling.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] The administrations crisis-management strategy continues to emphasize its regret about that film, Innocence of Muslims. This was manifest not only in the original (and subsequently retracted) statement from our embassy in Cairo, but in all statements by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the president. But deploring efforts to denigrate Muslim religious beliefs is only the first half of the sentence. The administration should have also robustly propounded its commitment to the virtues and values of free expression in a free society, and why this must necessarily encompass offensive speech. Whenever the White House mentions the First Amendment these days, it is done mostly in a defensive mode, by way of explaining (almost in sorrow) to the Muslim world why the U.S. government cannot legally suppress anti-Muslim films rather than a compelling explanation of why such films should not be suppressed. As Clinton stated on Sept. 14, I know it is hard for some people to understand why the United States cannot or does not just prevent these kinds of reprehensible videos from ever seeing the light of day. But simply saying that free speech is enshrined in our Constitution is not enoughthe administration must explain why that is a good thing to which they too should aspire. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION REFUSES TO CITE THE UNITED STATES HISTORY OF DEFENDING MUSLIMS IN OUR WORLD POLICY-Rivkin and Casey '12 [David B. and Lee A., Both Washington-Area Attorneys; Not Just the Middle East: Obama Foreign Policy Record Is Appalling; the Daily Beast; 21 September 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/21/not-just-themiddle-east-obama-foreign-policy-record-is-appalling.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] The administration also has failed to tell the Muslim world that Western critics of religion, far from singling out Islam, regularly unleash a torrent of offensive speech directed at Christianity and Judaism. In addition, no senior administration official has seen fit to elucidate any historical perspective on Americas relationship with the Islamic world, including our unparalleled record of support for Muslim causes. Brief references to U.S. support for the Libyan revolution is not sufficientthis must be at the center of our message to the Muslim world. America and its NATO allies have spent their own blood and treasure to protect Muslims facing slaughter and oppression in places ranging from Afghanistan to Bosnia to Kosovo to Iraq.
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US HANDS-OFF APPROACH WITH ISRAEL IS BAD POLICY-Jewish Telegraphic Agency '12 [Romney decries Obama Middle East policy in foreign policy speech; 9 October 2012; http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/10/09/3108836/romney-decries-obama-middle-east-policy-in-foreign-policyspeech; retrieved 11 October 2012] Romney called the strain on the relationship between the president of the United States and the Prime Minister of Israel "a dangerous situation that has set back the hope of peace in the Middle East and emboldened our mutual adversaries, especially Iran." "The President explicitly stated that his goal was to put 'daylight' between the United States and Israel. And he has succeeded," Romney said. AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IS CRITICAL TO THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT-Riedel '11 [Bruce; Senior Fellow athe Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution; Israeli-Palestinian Peace: What Is the U.S. National Security Interest? How Can It Be Achieved?; Middle East Policy; 20 January 2011; http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/israeli-palestinian-peace-what-us-national-securityinterest?print; retrieved 11 October 2012] Mumbai is not alone. It is a symbol of the radicalization process that is going on today. Thus, the urgent necessity of finding peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and in the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Future generations will look back on us, I am convinced, and they will ask a simple question. Why did America let this fester for so long? Why did we let 1.5 million Palestinians live in Gaza under siege? Why did we let Israelis live under siege for so many years? Why did we let Americans be at threat for so long? Couldn't we see that this was an urgent necessity in our own self-interest to resolve? Can it be done? I leave it to my colleagues to weigh out how. My simple answer is, yes, with American leadership and with an American map.
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Big Sky Debate Public Forum US HASN'T DONE ENOUGH TO COMBAT A GROWING THREAT FROM IRAN-Robinson '12 [Dan; Romney Criticizes Obama Middle East Policy; Voice of America News; 7 October 2012; http://www.voanews.com/articleprintview/1522214.html; retrieved 11 October 2012]
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Romney also criticized President Obama on the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program, and on U.S. relations with Israel. He accused Obama of seeking to distance the United States from Israel. The Republican presidential candidate vowed to make clear to Iran that its pursuit of a nuclear weapon "will not be tolerated." President Obama also has vowed that Iran will not be permitted to develop a nuclear weapon. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION NOT TAKING IRANIAN THREAT SERIOUSLY ENOUGH-Zubrin '12 *Robert; Fellow with the Center for Security Policy; Obamas Iran Policy Risks a Global Crash; U.S. deterrence is dead. So what will happen now?; National Review Online; 28 September 2012; http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/328746/obama-s-iran-policy-risks-global-crash-robert-zubrin; retrieved 11 October 2012] So with deterrence dead, the question is, What happens next? The Iranians could strike the U.S. for example, by sailing a bomb-laden ship into New York Harbor and detonating it before the arrival of customs officials but the administration seems to have discounted the possibility that the fundamentalist leaders of the Islamic Republic might actually be as irrational as they appear to be. The Israelis, however, have no such illusions. They are aware that it would take only about three bombs to wreck Israel as an organized state capable of defending itself, after which a general massacre would inevitably follow. That such an outcome is desired by the Iranian government cannot be in question, if we are to believe what its leaders have said over and over to Western audiences for years. Ahmadinejad this week fulfilled expectations when he railed against world Zionism in his deranged address to the U.N. Taking the Iranian leaders at their word, the Israelis know that, if they are to survive, they must act. THE LACK OF ACTION AGAINST IRAN HAS LEFT THE WORLD WITHOUT OPTIONS TO DEAL WITH THE IRANIAN THREATTobin '12 *Jonathan; Senior Editor; Obamas Iran Failure is Complete; Commentary Magazine; 25 September 2012; http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/09/25/obamas-iran-failure-is-complete/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Four years of Obamas policies have brought Iran to what may be the brink of a nuclear weapon with little, if any, time left to stop them by the use of force. The Iranians have ruthlessly exploited the presidents self-regard and his blind faith in diplomacy and international institutions. Far from being a mixed record, this is one of unmitigated failure. Should he be re-elected, Obama has talked himself into a position where he is likely to face a stark choice between using force on Iran or backing down on his pledges. Nothing he has done in his four years gives anyone without blind faith in him any confidence that he will do the former rather than the latter.
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ALTHOUGH THE POLICY COULD BE EFFECTIVE, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION ISN'T BEING STRONG ENOUGH IN ITS INSISTENCE THAT IRAN STOP DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPON-Dershowitz '12 [Alan; Professor of Law at Harvard Law School; Dershowitz: President Obama Can Stop Iran; Newsmax; 31 August 2012; http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Obama-Iran-nuclear-weapons/2012/08/31/id/450509; retrieved 12 October 2012] Two recent events suggest that the American strategy of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons is not yet working. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that Iran has more than doubled its development of centrifuges in an effort to accelerate its capacity to develop nuclear weapons. And the recent meeting of the nonaligned nations in Tehran shows that Iran is today stronger diplomatically than it has been in years. Iran is neither isolated nor alone in a world in which nonaligned nations form a majority at the United Nations. The sanctions, while hurting the Iranian economy and making life more difficult for the average Iranian, are having zero impact on the Iranian nuclear program, which according to objective intelligence reports, is gathering steam and moving even more quickly toward its ultimate goal of a nuclear weapon that will be a game changer. An Iranian nuclear weapon will end any dream of non proliferation. It will protect Irans surrogate terrorists, such as Hezbollah, under a formidable nuclear umbrella. And it will make an eventual nuclear war more likely. That is why President Obama rightfully took the containment option off the table and put the preventive military option squarely on it. Although I support President Obamas policy with regard to the Iranian nuclear threat, I think he must take one further step if the combination of diplomacy and sanctions are ever to work. That step is to communicate to Iran unequivocally and without any room for misunderstanding that the Obama Administration will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. President Obama has already made this point, but not in a way that the Iranians understand and believe. Language matters, and President Obama must now use language that commits him, in the eyes of the Iranians, to keep his promise that he will, if necessary, use military force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
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ALTHOUGH SANCTIONS ALONG ARE NOT ENOUGH, THE LOOPHOLES ALLOWED BY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION MAKE THEM FUNCTIONALLY WORTHLESS-Wall Street Journal '12 [Obama's Iran Loopholes: All 20 of Iran's major trading partners have sanction exemptions; Wall Street Journal; 2 July 2012; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304211804577502912009234948.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] To be sure, Iran is feeling some pressure these days. The EU, which a few years ago accounted for almost one-fifth of Tehran's oil business, has instituted a total embargo. South Korea has said it will zero out imports, too. All told, Iran's exports have plunged 40% this year compared to last, according to the International Energy Agency. As Hillary Clinton noted last week, this will cost Iran about $8 billion per quarter, or 10% of GDP. Throw in hyperinflation and stagnant growth, and Iran is suffering real economic pain. But enough pain to stop the 30-year nuclear drive of a revolutionary regime built around a messianic cult of martyrdom? A regime with foreign currency reserves between $60 billion and $100 billion, and which would net more than $40 billion in oil revenue even with a 40% drop in sales? We've never considered sanctions likely to persuade Iran to drop its nuclear program, but it's dangerous to pursue them half-heartedly while claiming progress and keeping the international temperature down as Iran's centrifuges spin. That's been the Obama Administration's consistent approach, and it'll probably continue at least through Election Day in November. It's a good way to comfort adversaries in Tehran and Beijing while undermining friends in Jerusalem and beyond. THE SANCTIONS HAVE PROVEN A LIMITED TOOL IN DEALING WITH IRAN-Feith '12 [David; Assistant Editorial Features Editor; What Obama Isn't Saying About Iran; The Wall Street Journal; 16 August 2012; page A11] The United States doesn't want Israel taking military action against Iran's nuclear program, and top officials have been traveling to Jerusalem this summer to make their case in person. Any attack would be dangerous and premature, they say, because Iran is suffering under crippling sanctions, the world is united against Tehran as never before, and all options remain on the table. The problem is that every one of these points is false or misleading. Start with sanctions. After years, they've proved troublesome, not crippling. Yes, the Iranian rial has lost half its value in 12 months. Oil exports are down by about half, too. And Tehran admits that inflation is above 20%, with unemployment above 13%. Yet this isn't an economy in freefall. The volume of oil exports is stabilizing, and the government has an estimated $60 billion to $100 billion in foreign currency reserves. The unfortunate reality is that sanctions are generally a limited tooland the Obama administration has made these sanctions even more limited. When Congress wanted to sanction Iran's central bank last year, the administration initially opposed the effort. The Senate endorsed it anyway, on a 100-0 vote, so the administration focused on getting lastminute loopholes written into the law.
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OBAMA SANCTIONS HAVE TOO MANY LOOPHOLES-Feith '12 [David; Assistant Editorial Features Editor; What Obama Isn't Saying About Iran; The Wall Street Journal; 16 August 2012; page A11] One of them gave the State Department the authority to exempt from sanctions any country that it determined had "significantly reduced" its imports of Iranian oil. No one paid much attention at the time, but eight months later we know the loophole's effect: All of Iran's major oil-trading partners20 of themreceived exemptions from U.S. sanctions. The Obama administration says all countries with exemptions earned them. But here again the rhetoric is slippery. India was exempted for pledging to cut its Iran imports by only 11%. Japan cut by 22%. Then there's China, which cut 25% overall from January to May but increased its take of Iran oil by 35% in the final two months, just before earning its exemption. President Obama said in March that "the world is as united as we've ever seen it around the need for Iran to take a different path on its nuclear program." Yet China, India, Japan and others that continue to do big business with Tehran aren't focused on squeezing Iran's economy. They're focused on such things as getting around banking restrictions by bartering rice and steel for oil. Whether they're motivated by trade imperatives, nonaligned politics or something else, these countries show that Iran is by no means as "isolated" as Mr. Obama asserts.
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CURRENT POLICY TO STAY OUT OF SYRIA IS BAD; THERE ARE FIVE REASONS TO INTERVENE NOW-Doran and Boot '12 [Michael, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute; and Max, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; New York Times; 26 September 2012; http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/opinion/5-reasons-to-intervene-in-syria-now.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] WHETHER you agree or disagree with President Obama, there is no doubt that he has formulated a coherent approach to the use of American power. The Obama Doctrine involves getting into a conflict zone and getting out fast without ground wars or extended military occupations. This approach proved its effectiveness in Libya last year. But the president is not applying his own doctrine where it would benefit the United States the most in Syria. One can certainly sympathize with his predicament. Syria is a mess, and it is tempting to stay out, especially in an election year. Yet inaction carries its own risks. There are five reasons to bring down President Bashar al-Assad sooner rather than later. First, American intervention would diminish Irans influence in the Arab world. Iran has showered aid on Syria and even sent advisers from its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to assist Mr. Assad. Iran knows that if his regime fell, it would lose its most important base in the Arab world and a supply line to pro-Iranian Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Second, a more muscular American policy could keep the conflict from spreading. Syrias civil war has already exacerbated sectarian strife in Lebanon and Iraq and the Turkish government has accused Mr. Assad of supporting Kurdish militants in order to inflame tensions between the Kurds and Turkey. Third, by training and equipping reliable partners within Syrias internal opposition, America could create a bulwark against extremist groups like Al Qaeda, which are present and are seeking safe havens in ungoverned corners of Syria. Fourth, American leadership on Syria could improve relations with key allies like Turkey and Qatar. Both the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Qatari counterpart have criticized the United States for offering only nonlethal support to the rebellion. Both favor establishing a no-fly zone and safe zones for civilians in Syrian territory. Finally, American action could end a terrible human-rights disaster within Syria and stop the exodus of refugees, which is creating a burden on neighboring states. Mr. Obama pledged earlier this year to strengthen the governments ability to foresee, prevent and respond to genocide and mass atrocities. Now he has an opportunity to do so. And by putting allies in the lead, Mr. Obama could act without sliding down the slippery slope toward a ground war. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION SITTING IN THEIR HANDS IN SYRIA-Taylor '12 [Guy; Obama vs. Romney on Syria policy; Election-year politics make for difficult call amid complex civil war; the Washington Times; 15 August 2012; http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/15/obama-vs-romney-on-syriapolicy/print/; retrieved 12 October 2012] "Complaining that there happen to be bad actors in the opposition is not an excuse for why we're not helping the good actors," said Dan Senor, a Romney campaign adviser and adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "We have basically been sitting on our hands for a long time waiting for the opposition to get better organized. The administration has come up with excuse after excuse all while more blood has been shed and Assad is still in power," he said. Mr. Senor said there are always good and bad actors, and the U.S. role should be to "make sure in a post-Assad regime that the good, the responsible actors have the upper hand" something he said will take stiff American leadership. "Is the Obama administration doing that? I don't know," Mr. Senor said. "They may be doing it now. But for a very long time they have been against it and we can only take them by their word. Our criticism is that they've chosen for a long time to be hands off to not play this sort of role in Syria."
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DESPITE A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SUCCESS, THE OBAMA POLICY OF INACTION IN SYRIA IS WRONG-Keiler '12 [Jonathan; Foreign Policy Writer and Analyst; Obama's Syria Dilemma; American Thinker; 6 June 2012; http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/obamas_syria_dilemma.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] As the situation in Syria deteriorates, with the Assad regime acting with ever-increasing ruthlessness, the Obama administration's firm policy of inaction has come in for extended criticism from both the left and the right. That is not to say there are not legitimate reasons for caution. Syria presents a difficult and complex situation. Credible explanations for the administration's inaction cover a range of military and political factors. Taking down the Syrian regime through air strikes might prove more difficult than operations in Kosovo or Libya. There are potential problems with the Kurds, the Turks, and the Russians. There is uncertainty about the Syrian opposition. What to do about Syria's arsenal of poison gas and biological weaponry and its ballistic missiles? What about the doctrine of non-interference initiated with the Peace of Westphalia? And so on. Yet these problems could prove manageable if President Obama were determined to act. But Obama's clear unwillingness to act militarily against the Assad regime almost certainly runs deeper than his famous preference for leading from behind. It is one thing for a dilettante like Obama to launch drone strikes against terrorist hovels, beat up on Moammar Gaddafi's pathetic army, or even agree to the hit on bin Laden. It's quite another to embark on an extended military campaign against a large and battle-tested army. Nonetheless, even a reluctant warrior like Obama might be convinced to launch a limited air/sea campaign against the Assad regime, if there were a limited aim -- removing Assad -- and a reasonable chance of success with few if any losses. As Obama's political fortunes continue to fade, it's not hard to see the president hungering for yet another chance to brag about his fortitude and toughness. Helping Syria might help Obama politically -- a consideration, if believed, that usually trumps in his Oval Office.
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UNITED STATES POLICY ASSUMES THAT WE ARE UNABLE TO IMPACT ANYTHING IN SYRIA, SO WE DEFER TO RUSSIASmith '12 [Lee; Obama's Syria Policy: Ask Putin; The Weekly Standard Blogs; 30 May 2012; http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/obamas-syria-policy-ask-putin_646302.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, hinted that atrocities like the Houla massacre might trigger military interventionbut why? What, from either a strategic or a humanitarian point of view, has changed with Houla? Sure, its believed that many of the casualties were children, but the uprising started after the regime tortured teenagers in Deraa. And what did the Obama administration do then or in the 14 months since the uprising first began? Yes, more than 100 people were killed in Houla, but by some estimates, the regime has already killed 15,000. So from the administrations point of view whats really changed? Nothing. And indeed, as if to qualify Dempseys statement, White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters yesterday, military action against Syria "is always an option"but he cautioned that the administration believes that it would lead to greater chaos, greater carnage. In other words, the people of Houla should consider themselves fortunate that the Assad regime kept the casualties relatively low. If the United States actually did something to try to stop Assad, who knows how many the regime might kill? That is to say, from Obamas perspective, the United States is, at best, impotent. And therefore the administration has plenty of reasons not to do anything about Assad. First there was the idea that the Syrian opposition may have been infiltrated by al Qaeda. Which is to say, the American intelligence community is incapable of distinguishing between al Qaeda and other members of the opposition, so we shouldnt arm anyone. Then there was the notion that the Syrian army, with 600,000 armed men and air defenses, is a powerful fighting force, indeed mighty enough to give American military planners pause. Nonetheless, the opposition refers to this ragtag sectarian militia fighting at a very small fraction of its stated power as the army of the sandals. The way the White House sees it, theres little we can do to help the opposition, or for that matter advance American interests by helping to topple Assad. The Iranians boast that theyre sending reinforcements to sustain the regime in Damascus, and the administration seems to admit as much. So why wont Obama counter Tehrans moves? If the administration believes it can contain and deter Iran that will mean not only presenting a credible threat of military action but the actual support of proxy forces to take on Iranian allies. Tehran gets it, which is why it is throwing its weight behind Assad; why doesnt the White House? Perhaps its because Obama has invested so much in engaging the Iranians that he fears getting them angry now. After all, hes made good on another pointless promise from the 2008 campaign so why risk it now, in the midst of very delicate negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear weapons program, by backing the Free Syrian Army? Instead, the White House is betting on Russia. The premise is that Moscow is close enough to the Assad regime that it could pull off a soft coup that would get rid of the Syrian strongman. What should make it attractive to the Russians, the administration contends, is that such a coup would preserve an Alawite minority regime and ensure Russias interests in the eastern Mediterranean. The problem here is that Vladimir Putin doesnt want to get rid of Assad, and even if he did, its not at all clear he has the ability to do it.
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RUSSIA STRATEGY WILL BE A FAILURE IN SYRIA-Smith '12 [Lee; Obama's Syria Policy: Ask Putin; The Weekly Standard Blogs; 30 May 2012; http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/obamas-syria-policy-ask-putin_646302.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] The administration hopes that it is possible to appeal to the better angels of Moscows nature and that Houla compels them to change their position on Assad. Instead, the Russians are sending more arms to the regime. Its hardly surprising, then, the Russians wont even admit that Assad is behind the massacre. Russian deputy U.N. ambassador Alexander Pankin rejected the idea that the evidence clearly showed Damascus was guilty. The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Susan Rice, has served as the administrations point man in the public campaign meant to shame Russia into doing the right thing, but all the White House has proven is that it knows nothing about the men who rule Moscow. Almost a decade ago, Chechen separatists stormed a theater in the Russian capital, and the Russian security services responded by filling the theater with a chemical compound that killed at least 33 Chechens and close to 200 hostages. If Putin cares so little for his own people, why would he be shamed by using the Syrian opposition to leverage his own prestige? David Ignatius, a sort of Obama White House press surrogate, writes in todays Washington Post that the Syria situation is Russias failure, not Americas. But this is incorrect. It is Obamas failure for leading from behind in the first place and then leaving the matter in the hands of the Russians. The only question is whether the administration is culpable because of its cynicism or naivet. Russia wants to have a continued influence in Syria, one administration official told the New York Times. Our interest is in stabilizing the situation, not eliminating Russian influence. The fact is that Russia has very little, if any, influence in Syria. Even if Putin wanted to dump Assad in exchange for some Alawite security or military chief, the Alawites cant possibly afford a fissure in their community right now. As Tony Badran, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains, an intramural Alawite conflict between Assad loyalists and pretenders to the throne would make the entire Alawite sect yet more vulnerable to the Sunnimajority rebels. Moscow is simply playing the spoiler and thereby enjoying the sort of international prestige that it has not been afforded since the end of the Cold War. The Russians are not going to engineer a coup against Assad, or in any way work to resolve the issue, because it is precisely the conflict that has given them influence in Syriathe conflict, that is, and Obama, who for no good reason has handed Moscow the reins.
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CON
GENERAL POLICY: US BROAD MIDDLE EAST POLICY IS A SUCCESS
BY CONVENTIONAL BENCHMARKS, US POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS A SUCCESS-Beinart '12 *Peter; Editor of Open Zion; How Obamas Middle East Policy Has Worked; The Daily Beast; 16 July 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/16/how-obama-s-middle-east-policy-has-worked.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] Yet by conventional benchmarks, Obamas Middle East policy has been quite successful. Hes killed Osama bin Laden and many other top al Qaeda leaders. With Europes help, hes imposed crushing sanctions on Iran. Hes successfully withdrawn troops from Iraq. According to polls, foreign policy is among his greatest political strengths. US POLICY IS BEING COPIED BY OTHER MAJOR WESTERN POWERS-Beinart '12 [Peter; Editor of Open Zion; How Obamas Middle East Policy Has Worked; The Daily Beast; 16 July 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/16/how-obama-s-middle-east-policy-has-worked.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] Similarly, Europes governments are following Obamas leadand imposing harsh sanctions on Irannot because their publics demand it, but because Europes leaders are afraid that if they dont impose severe sanctions, America or Israel will attack, thus rendering them irrelevant. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is pumping the increased oil that helps America and Europe pressure Iran, not because ordinary Saudis lie awake at night worrying about Iranian power, but because the kingdoms unelected monarchs do. ROMNEY CRITICISM ON LIBYA, SYRIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST ARE MISPLACED; US POLICY IS APPROPRIATE THEREBlaney '12 *Harry C. III; The Executive Director of the Coalition on American Leadership Abroad; Romneys Foreign Policy Key Fallacy; Rethinking National Security; 10 October 2012; http://cipnationalsecurity.wordpress.com/2012/10/10/romneysforeign-policy-key-fallacy/; retrieved 11 October 2012] Romney has accused Obama of not acting forcefully in areas such as Libya, Syria, and the Middle East generally. This was again his thrust in his recent speech at the Virginia Military Institute where, again, as in earlier talks, he talks the talk but does not walk the walk in giving us any specifics. His nostrums would endanger American leadership and vital interests abroad. Again he raises in his speech the death of our American diplomats to gain political points for a tragedy not of Obamas making nor significant for broad American engagement in the region. His remarks, as I said, were indecent and misplaced.
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GENERAL POLICY: DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL LIKELY BRING MORE HOSTILITY
MIDDLE EAST WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO THE UNITED STATES WHEN MORE DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS ARE HELD-Beinart '12 *Peter; Editor of Open Zion; How Obamas Middle East Policy Has Worked; The Daily Beast; 16 July 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/16/how-obama-s-middle-east-policy-has-worked.html; retrieved 11 October 2012] So were liberals wrong to believe that it mattered how Middle Easterners felt about the United States? Not exactly. The more the Arab Spring succeeds in fostering free elections, the more public hostility to the United States will shape Arab policy toward the United States. The leading indicator is Turkey, where the shift from de facto military rule to an increasingly populist political order has produced growing defiance of the United States. Something similar is likely in Egypt, where American influence is likely to recede as the militarys influence does, because elected governments will be less willing to defy their people.
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GENERAL POLICY: US FLEXIBLE MIDEAST POLICY WAS CRITICAL TO DEAL WITH THE ARAB SPRING
US POLICY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION ALLOWED IT THE FLEXIBILITY IT NEEDED TO DEAL WITH THE ARAB SPRING-Wittes '12 [Tamara Cofman; Director, Saben Center for Middle East Policy; Three Key Challenges in Confronting the Arab Awakening; Paper; Brookings Institute; 25 September 2012; http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/09/25arab-awakening-wittes; retrieved 11 October 2012] There is more to be said for President Obamas Middle East policy than Shadi Hamid allows. While Hamid focuses on the gap between unrealistic expectations and real policy outcomes, the fact remains that in the space of two and a half years, between the presidents Cairo speech and the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces in Iraq, the administration completed a major policy pivot. This shift enabled the United States and the Arab world to engage as the Arab Spring unfolded in ways that would likely have been impossible had the uprisings occurred while the United States was still surging in Iraq. While counterfactuals are impossible to evaluate, were it not for the Obama administrations determined and disciplined approach to reorienting U.S. policy in the Middle East from 2009 to 2011, there would be little room today for a positive American role in Arab democratic transitions. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S COUNTRY-BY-COUNTY APPROACH IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS BEEN VERY EFFECTIVEWittes '12 [Tamara Cofman; Director, Saben Center for Middle East Policy; Three Key Challenges in Confronting the Arab Awakening; Paper; Brookings Institute; 25 September 2012; http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/09/25arab-awakening-wittes; retrieved 11 October 2012] Third, Hamid argues that case-by-case decisions on how to manage the Arab uprisings threaten to dissipate the clarity of Obamas message of support for democratic change. But given the profound transformation under way in the region, the great variance in how leaders as well as mass movements are responding to the pressures for change, and the wide spectrum of consequences for U.S. interests as these cases might play out, consistency beyond the statement of broad principles is a white whale that the next administration should not chase. As Bahrain in particular illustrates, Americas mix of interests in a given place and time does not always cohere in a unified direction. The events of February and March 2011 outstripped the gradualist approach to reform that the United States had previously pushed in that country and produced a degree of polarization in Bahrain and its immediate neighborhood that now presents its own obstacle to any effort at political compromise. In the view of U.S. policymakers, Bahrain showed that the failure to change can invite not only domestic instability but also regional meddling. Nonetheless, the growing shadow of Iran demands continued close cooperation between the United States, Bahrain, and its local allieswhich tend to see Bahrains lesson in a polar opposite fashion, as showing the folly and danger of reform. Those states have come a long way over the past year, however. In three distinct cases (Libya, Yemen, and Syria), they have embraced political change as preferable to their long-defended status quo. To put the matter simply, the only possible consistency is a foolish one. One positive note is that the debate between democracy and security is no longer a question of trading off long-term democratic reform for short-term security cooperation. When it comes to reform and stability, the long term has arrived. Regardless of what prejudices or misgivings the next U.S. president may have about Arab democracy, he will be living with it and its consequences for the foreseeable future.
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GENERAL POLICY: RECENT TURMOIL ISNT JUSTIFICATION FOR CRITICISM OF BROAD US POLICY
THE FOCUS ON RECENT TURMOIL ON THE MIDDLE EAST HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH LEGITIMATE POLICY DEBATE ON THE MIDDLE EAST-Hurlburg '12 [Heather; Executive Director of the National Security Network in Washington D.C.; 3 Ways Mitt Romney's National Security Talk Is About Politics; US News and World Report; 1 October 2012; http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2012/10/01/3-ways-mitt-romneys-national-security-talk-is-aboutpolitics; retrieved 11 October 2012] Third, because for more than three decades, the GOP had the advantage on national security, and used that advantage successfully as a stand-in for overall leadership skills. The Iraq war debacle took that advantage away, and President Obama's successes in counterterrorism and drawing the wars to a close has been reflected in a steady advantage for him in the polls. Don't blame the GOP for trying to get its mojo back. Just don't imagine that Benghazi-gate, or the debate inside the Romney campaign about how to exploit it, has anything to do with actual national security policy, where the important debates consist of what we do next in the Middle East and Asia, how we marshal and use the influence we have, and how much money to spendwhether it's on diplomatic security, economic assistance, or trade preferences.
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Big Sky Debate Public Forum FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE, OBAMA HAS DRAW A CLEAR LINE FOR IRAN-Greenwald '12 [Glenn; Attorney; Obama, Iran and preventive war; Salon; 5 March 2012; http://www.salon.com/2012/03/05/obama_iran_and_preventive_war/; retrieved 12 October 2012]
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Just as was true in 2002 and early 2003, everyone agrees that a preventive war would be justifiable and may be necessary, and the only permitted debate is whether it should happen now or a bit later (where should the red lines be?). Whatever else is true, by having President Obama issue these clear and inflexible threats against Iran to which the nation is now bound, the once-controversial notion of preventive war just became much more normalized and bipartisan. Witness the virtually complete lack of objections to President Obamas threats from either party to see how true that is. THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION POLICY IS APPROPRIATE; USE DIPLOMATIC MEANS WHILE PREPARING FOR WAR INT HE BACKGROUND-Mead '11 [Walter Russell; Favorite Debate Author; Obama Moves Toward War With Iran; Via Meadia at The American Interest; 20 December 2011; http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/12/20/obama-moves-toward-war-with-iran/; retrieved 12 October 2012] The United States and the Obama administration should be doing everything possible to resolve this problem using peaceful means but in situations like this, preparing for war and threatening to use force may be the only tools left to preserve the peace. Our best remaining hope for peace is that the Iranians think the Americans have been bluffing and that as they realize the administration is serious they will rethink the nuclear program. This, one presumes, is why we are hearing such strong rhetoric now. The Obama administration is hoping that advertising its increasing readiness to use force, and putting itself in a position where it will have no choice but to follow through with its threats, will give the Iranians pause. But the cost is clear: the tougher the rhetoric, the more the administration commits itself to follow through. After Panettas interview the administration seems to be painted into a corner. Iran will either stop its nuclear program (offering convincing proof of its actions) or the bombs are going to fall. What happens after that, nobody knows.
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ISRAEL HAS CLEARLY RESPONDED THAT THEY BELIEVE THAT THE UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARDS IRAN IS TO FORCEFULLY THREATEN IRAN-Greenwald '12 [Glenn; Attorney; Obama, Iran and preventive war; Salon; 5 March 2012; http://www.salon.com/2012/03/05/obama_iran_and_preventive_war/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Time reports on the reaction the overwhelmingly positive reaction to Obamas speech in Israel: Those disappointed by Obamas speech yesterday, and it turns out there are such people, claim that he didnt make a clear commitment to a military strike, wrote Ben-Dror Yemini in the daily Maariv. Come on, really. He couldnt be clearer. Yemini, a plain-spoken conservative regarded as the voice of the workaday Israeli, heard in Obamas warnings to Irans ayatollahs the bass rumble of Israels right-wing political establishment. He didnt say he would vote for the Likud. But aside from that, one should pay attention, he sounded almost like the Likud leader, Yemini said. . . . The analysts were no less enthusiastic in Yedioth Ahronoth, the largest paid daily. Yesterday Obama gave Israels citizens a good reason to be friends of his, wrote Sima Kadmon, under the headline: Shalom, Friend. His speech was aimed directly at our nerve center, at our strongest existential fears. Obama promised us that the United States would not accept nuclear weapons; it simply would not permit their existence.It was a good speech for us, even an excellent one. We heard in it everything we wanted to hearand heard that we have someone to rely upon. Im not sure thats true as I indicated, part of what Obama was doing was denying Netanyahus demands that the American red line be moved to where the Israeli red line is but it is true that the U.S. categorically vowed to use its own military to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Watch for Democratic operatives, pundits, cable news outlets and think tanks to herald all of this Israelis celebrate that Obama sounded like the Likud leader and gave them everything they wanted to hear as though its a good thing.
Big Sky Debate Public Forum OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES TOWARDS IRAN HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL-Bosserman '12 [Brad; Foreign Policy Analyst at NDN; Obama's Iran Strategy Is Working; NDN Blogs; 6 April 2012; http://ndn.org/blog/2012/04/obamas-iran-strategy-working; retrieved 12 October 2012]
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The latest development in the U.S.-Iran relationship is an apparent backdoor diplomatic gesture made by the White House and leaked to David Ignatius at the Washington Post. According to senior officials in the Obama administration, "President Obama has signaled Iran that the United States would accept an Iranian civilian nuclear program if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can back up his recent public claim that his nation 'will never pursue nuclear weapons'." The messenger appears to have been Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who is playing an increasingly high-profile role in regional diplomacy. Critics of the Obama administration's Middle East strategy will inevitably decry this move as yet more evidence of the President's supposed weakness, though it's important to understand that his Iran strategy has, thus far, been fairly successful. From the beginning, President Obama has pursued a dual-track strategy that used the offer of diplomatic engagement, and the Iranian rejection of it, as a tool to lay bare the true intentions of the regime in Tehran. It is exactly this position that was necessary to create widespread international support for robust multilateral sanctions, especially among key allies in Europe and Asia who have been traditionally much more reliant on Iranian energy resources than the U.S. Unilateral sanctions have very limited impact on a country whose primary export markets are far from North America, and when the U.S. asks its allies to implement sanctions that require real sacrifices on their part, they want to know that American policymakers have exhausted all other tools. Most experts and analysts agree that the sanctions organized by the Obama administration have contributed (along with fundamental macroeconomic weakness and government mismanagement) to an Iranian economy that, while not spiraling out of control, is certainly ailing. If there is a real chance of regime change in Iran, it's going to have to be domestically driven, and key constituencies in the middle class and business sector won't be motivated to get off the sidelines until it becomes clear that the only path to avoiding sustained economic calamity is to usher in a new regime. Bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and other clearly external attacks on the country, however, would likely consolidate domestic support for the Ayatollah, serve as a much more credible scapegoat for their economic torpor, and delay the attitudinal and organizational shifts needed to inspire sustainable resistance to the leadership in Tehran. In addition, such strikes would likely fail to significantly derail the nuclear program. For these reasons, most experts oppose military action at this point.
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UNITED STATES ON THE WISEST COURSE RELATED TO IRAN-Mead '12 [Walter Russell; Favorite Debate Author; Iran Spits Nails As Sanctions Bite; Via Media at the American Interest; 2 January 2012; http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/01/02/iran-spits-nails-as-sanctionsbite/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WalterRussellMead+%28Walter+Russell +Mead%27s+Blog%29; retrieved 12 October 2012] Iran is rolling out one defiant step after another these days. In recent days it has begun ten days of naval games in the Straits of Hormuz while warning that it would close those straits to oil shipments if it is attacked. It has warned Turkey that, if attacked, it will respond by attacking NATO facilities on Turkish soil. It has announced the successful construction of its first nuclear fuel rod. It has tested a medium range missile. The recent upsurge in sectarian violence and polarization in Iraq seems to reflect in part Iranian efforts to deepen relations with militant Shiites next door. Iran also seems to be stepping up its efforts to forge relationships with some Latin American countries whose leaders are not overly fond of the United States. The great A-jad has a four country tour planned this month as Iran looks to build economic and security relationships that might help it evade sanctions. Busy, busy, busy. But this looks like the defiance of a cornered animal rather than the insolence of a rising power. Irans chief regional ally, Syria, continues to disintegrate. Hamas, the radical Palestinian group whose previous links with Iran gave the unpopular Shiite Persians greater standing in the mostly Sunni Arab world, is shifting from a Syria-Iran alliance toward one with Turkey and possibly Egypt. The rial continues to fall as sanctions hit the weak economy. The recent decision to stop fuel subsidies will make the government less popular at a time of great stress. As protests sweep Russia, Putin seems to be shifting toward a more cautious foreign policy, one that offers little comfort to Iran. China, too, is unlikely to offer anything more than a bit of political cover at the UN. The wisest course for the US would appear to be steady as we go: continue ratcheting up sanctions, watch for danger signs in Iranian-Latin dealings, strengthen the coalition, increase the direct pressure on Tehran and press for the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. Recent headline arms deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, not to mention a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Jordan this week, suggest that the US and its allies have something like this in mind. It would be fatuous and naive to suppose that sanctions will inevitably change Tehrans nuclear calculation or lead it to a more realistic regional policy; but it would be foolish not to recognize that the situation keeps moving in our favor. Push, watch, wait, prepare: those are the four things the US needs to do in 2012. Tehran is off balance and flailing; the Supreme Leader is not as happy with President A-jad as he once was and the fissures in the Iranian ruling elite seem to be widening. The US goal of stopping the Iranian nuclear program without war remains a stretch, but the US position continues to improve while Irans options narrow.
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OBAMA ADMINISTRATION POLICY TOWARDS IRAN IS TO STALL WITH SANCTIONS AND DIPLOMACY UNTIL COVERT ACTIONS CAN BE SUCCESSFUL-Leverett and Leverett '12 [Flynt, Professor of International Affairs at Penn State; and Hillary Mann; Senior Professorial Lecturer at American University; Obama is Buying Time on War With Iran; Mother Jones; 19 June 2012; http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/06/obama-iran-war-covert-operations; retrieved 12 October 2012] Since talks with Iran over its nuclear development started up again in April, US officials have repeatedly warned that Tehran will not be allowed to "play for time" in the negotiations. In fact, it is the Obama administration that is playing for time. Some suggest that President Obama is trying to use diplomacy to manage the nuclear issue and forestall an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear targets through the US presidential election. In reality, his administration is "buying time" for a more pernicious agenda: time for covert action to sabotage Tehran's nuclear program; time for sanctions to set the stage for regime change in Iran; and time for the United States, its European and Sunni Arab partners, and Turkey to weaken the Islamic Republic by overthrowing the Assad government in Syria. Vice President Biden's national security adviser, Antony J. Blinken, hinted at this in February, explaining that the administration's Iran policy is aimed at "buying time and continuing to move this problem into the future, and if you can do thatstrange things can happen in the interim." Former Pentagon official Michele Flournoynow out of government and advising Obama's reelection campaigntold an Israeli audience this month that, in the administration's view, it is also important to go through the diplomatic motions before attacking Iran so as not to "undermine the legitimacy of the action." New York Times' journalist David Sanger recently reported that, "from his first months in office, President Obama secretly ordered increasingly sophisticated attacks on the computer systems that run Iran's main nuclear enrichment facilities, significantly expanding America's first sustained use of cyberweapons"even though he knew this "could enable other countries, terrorists, or hackers to justify" cyberattacks against the United States. Israelwhich US intelligence officials say is sponsoring assassinations of Iranian scientists and other terrorist attacks in Iranhas been intimately involved in the program. US CYBERWARFARE HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL AT HURTING THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM-Center for American Progress '12 *Sanctions Are Causing Major Headaches for Irans Nuclear Program: 6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 29 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/29/11601/sanctions-are-causing-major-headachesfor-irans-nuclear-program/; retrieved 12 October 2012] In addition, public reports indicate that the Stuxnet computer worm that struck Irans nuclear program in 2011 hampered its nuclear efforts by directly destroying 1,000 centrifuges and likely exacerbating existing regime paranoia over penetration of the program by foreign intelligence agencies. Further cyber warfare against Irans nuclear program could cause additional physical damage to Irans nuclear infrastructure in similar ways or could serve to gather more information about its capabilities and intentions. The fall 2011 discovery of the Duqu worm by computer security firm Symantec Corporation appears to indicate that further cyber attacks against Irans nuclear program are likely. Moreover, ISIS states that more traditional forms of sabotage and information gathering via penetration of Iranian smuggling networks by foreign intelligence agencies have also caused setbacks to Tehrans nuclear efforts. Indeed, efforts to prevent Iran from smuggling components for its nuclear program have been ramped up: U.S. law enforcement officials are investigating 30 percent more cases this year than they were three years ago.
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OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY IS MORE SUBTLE THAN THE CLUMSY PUBLIC DEBATE ALLOWS-Leverett and Leverett '12 [Flynt, Professor of International Affairs at Penn State; and Hillary Mann; Senior Professorial Lecturer at American University; Obama is Buying Time on War With Iran; Mother Jones; 19 June 2012; http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/06/obama-iran-war-covert-operations; retrieved 12 October 2012] Classified State Department cables published by WikiLeaks show that, from the beginning of the Obama presidency, he and his team saw diplomacy primarily as a tool to build international support for tougher sanctions, including severe restrictions on Iranian oil exports. And what is the aim of such sanctions? Earlier this year, administration officials told the Washington Post that their purpose was to turn the Iranian people against their government. If this persuades Tehran to accept US demands to curtail its nuclear activities, fine; if the anger were to result in the Islamic Republic's overthrow, many in the administration would welcome that. Since shortly after unrest broke out in Syria, the Obama team has been calling for President Bashar al-Assad's ouster, expressing outrage over what they routinely describe as the deaths of thousands of innocent people at the hands of Syrian security forces. But, for more than a year, they have been focused on another aspect of the Syrian situation, calculating that Assad's fall or removal would be a sharp blow to Tehran's regional positionand might even spark the Islamic Republic's demise. That's the real impetus behind Washington's decision to provide "non-lethal" support to Syrian rebels attacking government forces, while refusing to back proposals for mediating the country's internal conflicts which might save lives, but do not stipulate Assad's departure upfront. Meeting with Iranian oppositionists last month, State Department officials aptly summarized Obama's Iran policy priorities this way: the "nuclear program, its impact on the security of Israel, and avenues for regime change." With such goals, how could his team do anything but play for time in the nuclear talks? Two former State Department officials who worked on Iran in the early months of Obama's presidency are on record confirming that the administration "never believed that diplomacy could succeed"and was "never serious" about it either.
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SANCTIONS PLUS THE POOR ECONOMY ARE CREATING HAVOC IN IRAN-Memarian '12 [Omid; Fomer World Peace Fellow and UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism; Irans Currency Crisis: Bad News For Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; the Daily Beast; 4 October 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/04/iran-scurrency-crisis-bad-news-for-mahmoud-ahmadinejad.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] Irans economy is in shock. Over the past week, the countrys currency, the rial, has lost half its value, and nobody knows whether the government can stop the downward spiral anytime soon. On Wednesday, Tehrans traditional bazaar shut down, and authorities from the police and the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) arrested a group of merchants and businessmen who had gathered in the marketplace. An eyewitness told The Daily Beast that near Ferdowsi Square, where most of Tehrans foreign exchange shops operate, anti-riot police had established a widespread presence and that Tehrans commercial area had assumed the appearance of a military zone. Analysts inside and outside Iran are debating whether the governments economic policies are to fault for the currency crisis, or whether its a sign that the U.S.s crippling sanctions are finally starting to be felt on the ground. But almost all agree that the rials depreciation spells very bad news for the countrys embattled president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL AT IMPACTING IRAN-Center for American Progress '12 *Sanctions Are Causing Major Headaches for Irans Nuclear Program: 6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 29 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/29/11601/sanctions-are-causing-major-headachesfor-irans-nuclear-program/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Though Iran has survived for more than 30 years under sanctions, the sanctions imposed by the international community over the past three-and-a-half years have pressured the Iranian economy to levels unseen in the history of the Islamic Republic. These and other measures appear to be seriously hindering Irans ability to advance its nuclear research, thus delaying Irans nuclear weapons ambitions. They have forced the leadership in Tehran to return to the negotiating table. Current sanctions on Iran consist of mostly trade, investment, arms, and banking restrictions, as well as more stringent cargo inspections and shipping regulations. But it is important to distinguish between U.S. unilateral efforts since 2010 which have arguably caused enough damage to the Iranian economy for Iran to give diplomacy another trythe EU oil embargo that will go into effect on July 1, and the recent efforts of other nations to scale back their dealings with Iran. In May 2011 a report by a special panel of U.N. experts stated that multilateral sanctions adopted under a June 2010 U.N. Security Council resolution were constraining Irans procurement of items related to prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile activity and thus slowing development of these programs. SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM EVEN MORE-Center for American Progress '12 *6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 21 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/21/11631/6-reasons-why-the-obamaadministrations-iran-strategy-is-the-best-way-forward/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Moreover, the Institute for Science and International Security notes Iran is having a hard time acquiring the materials to further advance its nuclear activities due to international sanctions, forcing the program to develop second-rate domestic substitutes that could slow the program even more. In fact, Russian team members in a U.S.-Russian joint technical assessment team analyzing Iran suggest a timeframe of two years to three years to build a simple nuclear bomb. The U.S.-Russian team estimated it would take Iran another five years after testing a bomb to develop a deliverable nuclear weapon. University of Southern California professor and nuclear proliferation expert Jacques Hymans concurs with the longer estimates of Iranian nuclear weapons capabilities given Irans poor technical infrastructure and managerial incompetence. He argues that that the most conservative estimates of just two to three years are unrealistic. November 2012: US Policy in the Middle East
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SANCTIONS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM-Center for American Progress '12 *Sanctions Are Causing Major Headaches for Irans Nuclear Program: 6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 29 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/29/11601/sanctions-are-causing-major-headachesfor-irans-nuclear-program/; retrieved 12 October 2012] The Institute for Science and International Security reports that international sanctions have slowed down Irans nuclear program significantlyto the point where the organization believes Iran would have already produced nuclear weapons without sanctions and other measures against its nuclear effort. Most importantly, sanctionsinternational, regional, and unilateralmake it more difficult for Iran to acquire the necessary resources from overseas to further its nuclear program. As ISIS notes, Iran is by no means self-sufficient in making all the goods it needs for its nuclear program or is it able to solve problems encountered in its deployment of nuclear technologies. Indeed, Iran is dependent on imports to sustain its centrifuge enrichment program, relying on foreign suppliers for maraging steela specific type of steel especially suitable for use in centrifugescarbon fiber, vacuum pumps, and vacuum measuring equipment, all of which have been restricted by U.N. sanctions that have been enforced with unanimity and stringency. As a result, it is unclear whether Iran can actually acquire the materials necessary to build the centrifuges it desires at Natanz and Fordow, two nuclear facilities in Iran. In the final analysis, ISIS explains that sanctions are forcing Iran to make less than desirable design choices and these choices further slow its progress and increase the technological risks that complicate any Iranian decision to dash to a bomb. SANCTIONS AND THE POOR ECONOMY ARE FORCING IRAN'S PEOPLE TO TURN AGAINST THEIR GOVERNMENTMemarian '12 [Omid; Fomer World Peace Fellow and UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism; Irans Currency Crisis: Bad News For Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; the Daily Beast; 4 October 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/04/iran-scurrency-crisis-bad-news-for-mahmoud-ahmadinejad.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] On Sept. 4, Ahmadinejad had dismissed speculation that the countrys currency was in deep trouble. When asked whether the rial would reach an exchange rate of 30,000 to the dollar, the president called such predictions psychological warfare. Now, just four weeks later, the rate has jumped to 35,000 rials to the dollar, and a Tehrani business owner reports that the exchange market has nearly shut down, with no one willing to sell off dollars for the quickly depreciating rials. Whether the worsening economy is the result of sanctions or the interference of the regimes corrupt elements in the market, people blame the government for mismanaging the economy, a journalist in Tehran told The Daily Beast, under condition of anonymity. We are losing hope. Prices change from morning to evening. The inflation is unbearable and Ahmadinejad still does not acknowledge that we are in deep trouble. A businessman who runs a food products distribution company in Tehran said that he has stopped selling goods this week, telling his employees to go home. Its all loss if I sell anything today, as the money I get might have half the value next week, he said. So far, Iranians frustration over the plummeting exchange rate seems to be directed squarely at Ahmadinejads government. If you listen carefully to the slogans people are chanting, theyre so far mostly economic in nature, not political, and their frustration is directed toward their own government, not the U.S. or international sanctions, says Karim Sadjadpour, a senior associate and Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment. Iranians are disunited about what kind of a political system they want, but they're united in wanting greater economic dignity.
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PEOPLE ARE LOSING HOPE DUE TO THE ECONOMY AND ARE BLAMING THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT-Memarian '12 [Omid; Fomer World Peace Fellow and UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism; Irans Currency Crisis: Bad News For Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; the Daily Beast; 4 October 2012; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/04/iran-scurrency-crisis-bad-news-for-mahmoud-ahmadinejad.html; retrieved 12 October 2012] Analysts say multiple factors are playing into the rials precipitous plunge in value. In the course of the past seven years, the government had kept the value of the currency artificially low by drawing upon its petro-dollars, says Dariush Zahedi, the director of the University of California, Berkeleys Program on Entrepreneurship and Democracy in the Middle East. The imposition of crippling financial and oil sanctions, however, has substantially cut into the government's revenues. People have no confidence in the ability of the government to manage the deepening financial and international crisis, and are certain that conditions are likely to continue to deteriorate, Zahedi says. They believe that due to sanctions the government has either no access to its foreign currency reserves, or that they are being rapidly depleted. We are losing hope. Prices change from morning to evening. During its tenure, the Ahmadinejad government has increased liquidity by more than 600 percent, adds Zahedi. Therefore, there is now an avalanche of money searching for a safe place to invest and with interest rates well below the rate of inflation and the nation's manufacturing sector emasculated due to the flooding of the country with cheap Chinese goodsand the geometric rise in the price of utilities and industrial inputsthey have turned to safe investments like foreign currencies and gold, causing the price of both to skyrocket.
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IRAN IS MORE THAN A YEAR AWAY FROM HAVING EVEN A CRUDE NUCLEAR WEAPON, JUSTIFYING CURRENT POLICYCenter for American Progress '12 *6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 21 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/21/11631/6-reasons-why-the-obamaadministrations-iran-strategy-is-the-best-way-forward/; retrieved 12 October 2012] The P5+1, a group of negotiators from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany, will meet with Iranian negotiators this week in Baghdad in the hope of peacefully resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. Though the first round of talks last month in Istanbul was generally viewed as a positive step toward a de-escalation of tensions, the Baghdad talks face significant pressure to continue a pragmatic shift away from unnecessary direct military conflict with Iran. There is strong bipartisan consensus in the United States and within the international community that an Iranian nuclear weapon would destabilize one of the worlds most important oil-producing regions, harm Israels security, and severely undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But even though halting Irans nuclear weapon ambitions is an urgent priority, there is time for a disciplined approach and a serious and determined effort to resolve the situation diplomatically. Thats because most estimates place Iran a year away at minimum from producing a crude nuclear weapon. The key factor in these calculations is Irans capacity to produce the highly enriched uranium necessary for a bomb. The most common estimates by U.S. and Israeli government officials, as well as outside groups such as the nonpartisan Institute for Science and International Security, are that Iran could develop a crude but workable nuclear explosive device within a year. Importantly, though, in recent congressional testimony Director of National Intelligence James Clapper indicated that this timeframe was technically feasible but not likely given the complexities involved in developing nuclear weapons. INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY HAS SLOWED DOWN IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM-Center for American Progress '12 *Sanctions Are Causing Major Headaches for Irans Nuclear Program: 6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 29 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/29/11601/sanctions-are-causing-major-headachesfor-irans-nuclear-program/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Increased international scrutiny of and pressure on Irans nuclear program may also be slowing its progress. The apparent success of foreign intelligence agencies in penetrating Irans nuclear program will likely increase the inherent suspicion of Iranian security services and could lead to actions intended to decrease the nuclear programs vulnerability to foreign intelligence agencies. This would further slow the programs progress. More concretely, increased international scrutiny of Irans nuclear program forced several of its more troubling aspects underground and diverted Iranian resources to attempts to avoid the prying eyes of the international community. Despite its failure to come clean to the International Atomic Energy Agency on its past and possibly present nuclear weapons efforts, Irans 2003 decision to shut down its unified weapons program after its clandestine nuclear facilities were discovered the previous year effectively fragmented its weapons efforts.
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A REALISTIC LOOK AT THE TIMEFRAME FOR IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM GIVES PLENTY OF TIME FOR CURRENT POLICY TO WORK AND ADAPT-Center for American Progress '12 *6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 21 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/21/11631/6-reasons-why-the-obamaadministrations-iran-strategy-is-the-best-way-forward/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Iran would also need a warhead with a delivery system such as a missile, and it needs at least one to two years to develop a warhead and delivery system suitable for operational use, according to estimates from the U.S. intelligence community, Israeli military intelligence, and outside groups such as the Institute for Science and International Security. So even if Iran acquired a functioning nuclear weapon today, the soonest it could successfully deliver a weapon to a target is early 2014. Irans missile capabilities generally lag behind its nuclear developments. Its most advanced missilethe solid-fuel Sejjil2is not yet operational and in any case is not believed to be a suitable nuclear delivery system unless used with a substantially smaller nuclear warhead than Iran is believed capable of producing. Experts from the U.S.-Russian joint technical assessment team and the International Institute for Strategic Studies believe an Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile is not likely to be produced before the 2020s. In addition, these team members conclude that existing Iranian missiles are generally not suitable for the delivery of first-generation nuclear weapons and would prove unwieldy if developed further. Additional efforts to either develop a new, suitable missile or a small-enough warhead for existing Iranian missiles will be required before Iran can field a viable nuclear delivery capability. Given these estimates, the United States and the international community have time to continue negotiations with Iran and let sanctions pressure the Tehran regime to come clean about its program. The international community does not have an infinite window to stop Iran from acquiring a deliverable nuclear weapon, but there is time to support a serious and determined effort by the P5+1 to resolve the situation diplomatically. More importantly, we still have time to think through our options on Iran and get our policy right. IRAN WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS A WEAPON-Center for American Progress '12 *Sanctions Are Causing Major Headaches for Irans Nuclear Program: 6 Reasons Why the Obama Administrations Iran Strategy Is the Best Way Forward; Center for American Progress; 29 May 2012; http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/05/29/11601/sanctions-are-causing-major-headachesfor-irans-nuclear-program/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Even if Iran is continuing to work on various aspects of nuclear proliferation, Irans lack of a unified program makes progress toward a weapon more difficult. The compartmentalized nature of the program inhibits information-sharing and excessive secrecy, both of which are necessary to prevent discovery of patently illegal weapons. In addition, the halt of Irans nuclear weapons program has apparently demoralized top Iranian nuclear scientists, who, according to U.S. intelligence intercepts, continued to complain about the decision years after it was made.
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OBAMA ADMINISTRATION IS DOING ABOUT ALL IT CAN IN SYRIA-Hounshell '12 [Blake; Managing Editor of Foreign Policy; Why Obama Has To Lead From Behind In Syria, Even If He Doesnt Want To; The New Republic; 10 February 2012; http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/100616/why-obama-has-lead-behind-in-syriaeven-if-he-doesnt-want#; retrieved 12 October 2012] What can we in the United States do, other than watch in horror? The dispiriting truth is that, for the moment, we cant do much at allnot only for a lack of political options, but for a lack of collective political will. And so the Syrian crisis is destined to get worseperhaps far worsebefore it gets any better. The options that the Obama administration has currently put on the tablemore rhetoric, more sanctions, more diplomatic support for the Arab League and the Syrian National Council (SNC), the umbrella group set up to represent the revolutionseem hopelessly inadequate to the task. Assad is not going to suddenly realize the error of his ways and delegate authority to his vice president, as the Arab League has demanded. And with this weeks formal withdrawal of Gulf state ambassadors, the odds of Arab diplomacy solving the conflictnever greathave gone down dramatically. The Arab League is meeting again this weekend, and the chatter in diplomatic circles is that it will make one last sally at the U.N. Security Council. (Everything is very and I mean very possible but first there will be one more go to U.N., a retired Gulf diplomat told me.) But, even then, it seems likely that Russia and China will again deploy their vetoes. Meanwhile, that joint veto has fueled fury and desperation on the groundspurring the hapless SNC to lose credibility to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the loose network of military defectors and local militias defending enclaves like Bab Amr. Diplomacy won't work, one Syrian told me. Everybody wants to fight the regime and the regime thinks it now has its chance. Male refugees I met in Jordan are waiting for weapons to be secured before they sneak back into Syria to join the FSA and many have already done so. I am talking about the overwhelming majority of male refugees. It is mindboggling. (Another Syrian emailed: If the FSA is armed properly, we'll probably see more civilians join as well as an incredible increase in the amount of proper military defections.) It seems that Syria, then, is on a path to more violence. What can the United States realistically do right now to stall its progress? Diplomatically, a Friends of Syria contact group of Western powers and neighboring countries is already being set up that can be used to rally support for the opposition. Western intelligence agencies, together with those from Turkey and Arab countries, could also be directed to gather as much information as they can on the intentions and disposition of Assads forcesmapping every warehouse, farmhouse, hen house, outhouse and doghouse supporting the regimeand encouraging further defections. And the United States, together with other countries, can provide much needed support to set up a more unified command structure for the ragtag FSA, and to smooth its fraught relations with the SNC.
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US TWO-TRACK APPROACH IS THE RIGHT APPROACH IN SYRIA-Taylor '12 [Guy; Obama vs. Romney on Syria policy; Election-year politics make for difficult call amid complex civil war; the Washington Times; 15 August 2012; http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/15/obama-vs-romney-on-syriapolicy/print/; retrieved 12 October 2012] Others say the region's volatility, along with the specter of Russian influence in Syria, is one of the reasons for the Obama administration's non-aggressive approach. "The worst-case scenario would be to enter publicly into a proxy war with Russia, with the U.S. pumping a lot of weaponry into the rebellion while the Russians continue to arm the Assad regime," Mr. Gowan said. "This was the nightmare scenario at the start of the year that I think the U.S. wanted to avoid." As a result, Mr. Gowan credits the administration's attempt to implement a two-track strategy. "On the one hand it has maintained the diplomatic track at the U.N. even while being very frustrated by Russia's opposition to any serious action against Syria," he said. "On the other hand, the administration has been working, it appears clandestinely, with countries that are arming the rebels." He said the administration's slow embrace of Syrian opposition forces last year was likely driven by concerns that an ouster of Mr. Assad might jeopardize the security of Israel, which shares part of Syria's southwestern border. But that calculation has changed. "Early on, I think the Israeli calculation was that Assad had been a fairly stable partner," Mr. Gowan said. "Now we're in a situation where the top priority has to be probably containing the conflict so that it doesn't spill over into a wider regional conflict that puts Israel in danger." SYRIAN POLICY IS A TOUGH ISSUE FOR THE UNITED STATES; A ROMNEY PRESIDENCY WOULD LIKELY ADOPT THE SAME STRATEGIES-Taylor '12 [Guy; Obama vs. Romney on Syria policy; Election-year politics make for difficult call amid complex civil war; the Washington Times; 15 August 2012; http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/15/obama-vs-romney-on-syriapolicy/print/; retrieved 12 October 2012] All sides agree Syria is a tough situation to grapple with. It is positioned in the center of Middle East hotspots, in between Israel and Iran; it is a long-time client state of Russia; and its complex mix of ethnicity and religion makes it difficult to predict. The catch is that a Mitt Romney administration probably wouldn't do many things differently on Syria, said Michael Rubin, a resident scholar focusing on the Middle East at the American Enterprise Institute. "What the Obama administration is doing what Romney ultimately would do is hoping that the Syrian situation would take care of itself," he said. What the administration has done is commit nearly $82 million in humanitarian aid to help some 146,000 refugees spawned by the violence. But when it comes to big-picture strategy, much of the administration's energy has been spent lobbying the United Nations to get behind a sanctions initiative designed to pressure Mr. Assad to resign.
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UNITED STATES TAKING A CAUTIOUS POSITION ON ARMING REBELS SO US ARMS DO NOT END UP IN THE HANDS OF TERRORIST GROUPS-Taylor '12 [Guy; Obama vs. Romney on Syria policy; Election-year politics make for difficult call amid complex civil war; the Washington Times; 15 August 2012; http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/15/obama-vs-romney-on-syriapolicy/print/; retrieved 12 October 2012] At the same time, the administration fears that providing direct aid to rebels could mean military equipment ends up in the hands of truly unsavory groups. Mrs. Clinton made reference to such concerns Monday during a visit to Turkey, where unease is mounting over the activities in Syria of the Kurdish Workers' Party also known as the PKK which the United States, Turkey, the European Union and NATO list as a terrorist organization. "We worry about terrorists, PKK, al Qaeda and others taking advantage of the legitimate fight of the Syrian people for their freedom to use Syria and to promote their own agendas, and even to perhaps find footholds to launch attacks against others," Mrs. Clinton said.
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SYRIA: US MUST ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE WORLD AND NOT GO ROGUE
CAN'T ADDRESS SYRIA IN ISOLATION OF THE REGIONAL OR GLOBAL POLITICAL SCENE-Gourevitch '12 [Philip; Writer and Journalist; THE SYRIA DILEMMA; The New Yorker; 4 June 2012; http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2012/06/04/120604taco_talk_gourevitch; retrieved 12 October 2012] Syria cannot be addressed in isolation. What concerns the United States most in the region is trying to avert war between Israel and Iran. (Last week, during negotiations in Baghdad to curtail Tehrans nuclear program, Washingtons hopes ran prematurely high.) There is a risk of a regional Sunni-Shiite conflagration, as Saudi Arabia, which backed Bahrains crackdown on Shiite protesters, has advocated arming Syrias opposition. There are Turkish misgivings about Kurdish rebels establishing bases in Syria; and Israeli anxieties about Assads accelerating military assistance to Hezbollah forces. There is also the question of Syrias enormous chemical-weapons stockpiles: might Assad use them? Can they be secured if he falls? And there is the problem of Russias support for Syriaits lone remaining client state in the Middle Eastand Chinas support for Russia, particularly after both countries were angered by NATOs use of its U.N. mandate to provide humanitarian protection in Libya to achieve regime change there. (Russia has called on the International Criminal Court to investigate allegations of NATO war crimes in the campaign against Qaddafi.)
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with the protests on their own. They were not trained for it. They were not equipped for it, for riot control. They behaved very credibly and I think the surge bought the time for that training program to produce those kinds of results.
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POLITICAL SOURCES FALSE: ROMNEY/RYAN AND OBAMA/BIDEN ARENT THAT DIFFERENT ON FOREIGN POLICY
ROMNEY/OBAMA DIFFERENCES ON NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY AREN'T AS DIFFERENT AS THEIR RHETORIC SUGGESTS-O'Hanlon '12 [Michael; Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute; Column: Playing the same defense; USA Today; 18 September 2012; http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2012/09/19/obama-romney-defense-foreign-policy/1579405/; retrieved 11 October 2012] The new turmoil in the Middle East, including the recent killing of our U.S. ambassador in Libya, has raised the profile, and the rhetoric, on foreign policy and national security in the presidential race. But an examination of two central issues in the race, proper levels of U.S. military spending and the use of military force, suggests a more nuanced and intelligent debate between the two men. And the differences between them are far narrower than the rhetoric suggests: Defense spending. President Obama wants to cut the size of the U.S. ground forces to nearly where they were just before 9/11. That is one way he will seek to save almost $500 billion over the next decade on defense costs. War costs would also decline as troops gradually leave Afghanistan. Obama strongly opposes further cuts, including the additional $500 billion over a decade that would result from so-called sequestration. Mitt Romney, in turn, opposes that first $500 billion in 10-year cuts that the president favors (and opposes sequestration, too). He wants to increase the Navy shipbuilding budget to 15 ships a year from Obama's nine and keep ground forces near where they are, about 100,000 more troops than the president forecasts. COMPARING MIDDLE EAST POLICY OF ROMNEY AND OBAMA, THEY ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR, HOWEVER, THE EDGE GOES TO OBAMA FOR A MORE REALISTIC LONG TERM FINANCING OF THE MILITARY-O'Hanlon '12 [Michael; Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute; Column: Playing the same defense; USA Today; 18 September 2012; http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2012/09/19/obama-romney-defense-foreign-policy/1579405/; retrieved 11 October 2012] On Syria, Romney appears to favor a more robust arming of the rebels by other countries, but it is not clear that this position is meaningfully different from Obama's. On Iran, Romney is more predisposed to give Israel a green light to attack Iranian nuclear facilities whereas Obama, while not ruling out the use of force, believes in allowing strong international sanctions a bit more time to work. Who holds the stronger positions? Placing defense spending in a broader context, the edge goes to Obama. His projected deficits will be less than Romney's. As such, his defense budget plan will help us deal with the debt problem. In the process, it will accept more short-term military risk but to a degree that appears reasonable. Saddam Hussein is gone, so we can cut ground forces to near-1990s levels; the Navy can find more efficient ways to deploy and base ships abroad, so we needn't build ships at a faster rate; military compensation remains robust, so we can probably make deeper reforms than planned. But Romney is hardly some Neanderthal trying to solve every global problem with a military tool; he is espousing a defense plan Obama proposed in 2009 and 2010. Moreover, his policy of arming Syrian rebels makes good sense at this point, even if Obama's hesitancy to use of force against Iran would seem the wiser course there.