Concept

Gemma Holdman EDG 6931 Knowing and Learning Clinical Interview Task 1

Probability is an important mathematical concept not only useful in classroom settings

but also in real-world situations. Probability is defined as the measure or ratio of the likelihood that a given event will occur. Two types or approaches of probability exist experimental and theoretical. Experimental probability rates the number of times an event occurs out of the total number of trials or repeated experiments. Theoretical probability measures the number of favorable outcomes out of the total number of possible outcomes (what is expected to happen). The list of possible outcomes is called the sample space and any subset of a sample space is called an event. Probability is expressed either as a number between 0 and 1 or a percentage between 0 and 100. In both number and percentage form, 0 corresponds to an impossible likelihood, and 1 or 100% pertains to an absolute certainty of a particular event occurring. To compute the probability of an event, it is important to be able to count the number of possible outcomes that can occur. The Fundamental Counting Principle, permutations and combinations are the primary principles used to count the number of possible outcomes. Once the number of possible outcomes of an event and sample space have been computed, the probability can be established. The probability of an event is the number of outcomes in event divided by the number of outcomes in sample space. The Fundamental Counting Principle is used to determine the number of possible outcomes of a particular event. It states that if one event has M outcomes and the second event has N outcomes, then the total possible outcomes of the combined events is M x N. For example, if you want to flip a coin (first event) and roll a dice (second event), you count the possible outcomes of each event and then multiply them together. Flipping a coin consists of two possible outcomes, heads or tails, and rolling a dice contains six potential outcomes, 1-6. A coin can be flipped and a dice can be rolled 12 different ways by applying the principle and multiplying 2 x 6. Furthermore, the counting principle can be used for two or more events. For example, events M, N, O would have M x N x O possible outcomes.

Gemma Holdman EDG 6931 Knowing and Learning Clinical Interview Task 1 Another important counting principle is permutations. A permutation is an

arrangement of events in which the order or positioning is important. The number of permutations (P) of N outcomes is denoted as P = N x (N 1) x (N 2) or P = N!. An example would be determining how many permutations are possible for the letters A, B, C, D, E and F. In the first position, any of the six letters could be used. The second position could contain any of the remaining five letters. Each position decreases in the amount of potential letters. Numerically, this is shown as 6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720. When working with permutations, it is important to notice if the sample space (N) or an event (R) of the sample space needs to be calculated. To calculate the permutation of an event of the sample space, one must use the following equation = NPR = N!/(N R)!. For instance, to determine how many permutations are possible for the letters A, B, C, D, E and F in a subset of three positions, calculate 6P3 = 6!/(6 3)! = 6!/3! = 6 x 5 x 4 = 120. The last main counting principle is combinations a method of selecting events (subsets) of a sample space in which the order is not important. The number of combinations (C) of an event (R) in a total sample space (N) is denoted as NCR = N!/(N R)!R!. Using the example above, to determine the number of combinations for the letters A, B, C, D, E and F in a subset of three positions, calculate 6C3 = 6!/(6 3)!3! = 6!/3!3! = (6 x 5 x 4)/(3 x 2 x 1) = 120/6 = 20 combinations. Probability is a mathematical concept that is introduced to children in varying grades and complexities. The concepts presented above are generally introduced to students in high school mathematics courses and require a moderate cognitive complexity because the problems require several steps and multiple operations. Students at lower grade levels are introduced to probability at a lower depth and principles are demonstrated with basic problems often containing simple operations and single steps. There are a variety of different methods to solve probability problems. For lower grade levels, problems are often presented visually using pictures and diagrams. Once the material gets more in depth, formulas are required to solve problems quickly and efficiently. Having the knowledge of probability principles is valuable in our everyday use.

Florida Next Generation Sunshine State Standards

Gemma Holdman EDG 6931 Knowing and Learning Clinical Interview Task 1

Big Idea: Counting Principles understand the counting principle, permutations, and combinations, and use them to solve problems. Benchmark Code: MA.912.P.1.2 use formulas for permutations and combinations to count outcomes and determine probabilities of events. Participant Information The participant is an 18-year-old freshman at the University of Florida. Her major is biology and she aspires to become a doctor in the future. Her mathematics level is high school calculus and she is currently enrolled in Calculus 1. Clinical Interview Outline Explain to the participant the purpose of the interview. o Ask for permission to record the interview along with justifying the importance. o Address any questions the participant has to promote a comfortable environment. I will ask the participant to share with me what she knows about probability and counting principles. o How do you solve probability/counting principle problems? What strategies do you use to compute those types of problems? o How long has it been since youve used probability and its respective methods for solving similar problems? o Potentially ask to expand on responses. Next, I will ask specific questions pertaining to solving problems containing probability and the counting principles. o Question 1: A college needs two additional faculty members: a Calculus professor and a Chemistry professor. In how many ways can these positions be filled if there are 5 applicants for the Calculus position and 3 applicants for the statistics position?

Gemma Holdman EDG 6931 Knowing and Learning Clinical Interview Task 1 o Question 2: A family is posing for a photograph. In how many ways can 6 people line up in a row? o Question 3: From a pool of 12 candidates, the offices of president, vice- president, secretary, and treasurer will be filled. In how many different ways can the offices be filled? o Question 4: Write all possible selections of two shapes that can be formed from the following shapes: circle, square, triangle, rectangle, pentagon, and octagon. o Question 5: Using a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of selecting (a) a face card, (b) a non-face card and (c) a 6 or less? o Question 6: A bag contains 6 marbles one green, two yellow and three red. Find the probability of drawing two marbles (without replacement) that are (a) both red and (b) neither is yellow. o During the activities listed above, I will ask the participant adaptations of the following questions to get a better understanding and perspective of their cognitive processes: How did you solve this problem? Please demonstrate how you reached a solution to this problem. Can you make a formula that solves this problem?

What are your reasons for using that strategy/method? Are there additional ways you could have solved this problem? Why did you not use those procedures? How is this problem similar/different to previous problems? How might someone else solve this problem? Please expand on your response (if applicable).

After concluding the activities presented to my participant, I will applause her for a job well done and thank her for her time and contributions to my project. I will also mention that I will contact her soon to schedule an additional interview.

Starter 2004. Print. Web.

Gemma Holdman EDG 6931 Knowing and Learning Clinical Interview Task 1

Larson, Ron and Hostetler, Robert P. Precalculus. Sixth. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company,

http://www.floridastandards.org/Standards/PublicPreviewBenchmark316.aspx