Analytical Problem Solving

ANALYTICAL PROBLEM-SOLVING
Copyright, Arnaud Chevallier. All rights reserved.
Arnaud Chevallier / July 2010 (Revised)
See more at powerful-problem-solving.com

Friday, July 9, 2010
We all solve problems daily
How should we complement our product porfolio? Why havent we met our sales target? How can we reduce illegal immigration? ...
See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010
2 :41
But most of us havent received formal training on how to do it
From Cartoonbank.com
3 :41
This presentation shows how basing your resolution on key questions can help
Well see how to: Define optimally your problem Solve it with an issue tree
4 :41
This presentation shows how to define a problem and how to plan its solution
We all solve problems
But we dont do it optimally
Basing your problemsolving on key questions can help
Define the problem
Identify the solution
Define the key question
Understand the context
Build the issue tree
Improve it
5 :41
Define the problem
Improve it
6 :41
Define the problem
Improve it
6 :41
First, you have to identify the right key question (well consider only how and why questions)
7 :41
This can be more difficult than it sounds

Problem: the cars of the employees of a company dont fit into the parking lot Whats the key question?
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For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem
How can we increase the capacity of the lot?
After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit
9 :41

Expending its dimensions How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space
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Expending its dimensions How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space Building a new floor Using a new parcel
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Expending its dimensions How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space Building a new floor Using a new parcel Reducing the size of each space
Reducing the area not dedicated to parking

9 :41
For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem (contd)
How can we reduce the number of cars?
10 :41
Reducing the number of employees How can we reduce the number of cars? Increasing the number of employees per car
10 :41
Moving part of the company elsewhere Eliminating jobs
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Moving part of the company elsewhere Eliminating jobs Making that more employees use other means of transportation Promoting car pooling
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So ensure you are solving the right problem (not a part, not a symptom)
Expending its dimensions How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space Building a new floor
Using a new parcel Reducing the size of each space
How can we solve the saturation of the lot?

How can we reduce the number of cars?
Reducing the area not dedicated to parking Moving part of the company elsewhere Eliminating jobs Making that more employees use other means of transportation Promoting car pooling
11 :41
Reducing the number of employees
Increasing the number of employees per car
The key question encompasses all the other relevant ones

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Key question ? ? ? ? ?
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The key question must have the right scope: neither too narrow nor too wide
Make the key question... Neither too vague Nor too narrow / oriented in the wrong direction / based on a hypothesis / compounded
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To fully describe your problem you must complement your key question with an introductory flow...
C O N T E X T
Situation: The non controversial, relevant information about the problem. ONLY the relevant information Complication: The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its symptoms/consequences)
Key question: THE question you want to answer

Adapted from Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle
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... and a definition of the environment
S c o p e
Criteria for a high-quality tree: Optional actions that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality Implementation parameters: Deadlines, budget, numerical objectives, etc. Out of scope: Actions that you could take but decide upfront not to
Use only action verbs
15 :41
At the end, you might find it convenient to summarize your problem in a problem identity card
Problem Identity Card
Project:
C O N T E X T
Situation: The key issue: the non controversial, relevant information about the problem. ONLY the relevant information Complication: The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its symptoms/consequences)
Key question: THE question you want to answer

S C O P E Criteria for a high-quality tree: Optional action that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality
Implementation parameters: Deadlines, budget, numerical objectives, etc.
Out of scope: Actions that you could take but decide upfront not to
After Andersen Consulting, Issue-Based Problem Solving See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010
16 :41
Define the problem
Improve it
17 :41
Define the problem
Improve it
17 :41
Issue trees have four basic rules

Go from the key question to the analysis Are MECE Issue trees Are perspicacious
Keep asking why or how

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A tree goes from the key question to the data sources
How can we increase our profitability
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Key question Sub-issue
How can we our revenues?

How can we our costs?
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Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue
prices? How can we our revenues? volume?

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Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue
prices? How can we our revenues? volume?

Raw materials costs? How can we our costs? Employee costs?
Other costs? See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

19 :41

Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue Sub-...issue
Of all products? prices? How can we our revenues? volume?

Of only specific products?

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Of only specific products? publicity? offers?

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Of only specific products? publicity? offers? the quantity of raw materials? Get cheaper raw materials?

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Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue Sub-...issue Sub-...-issue

Of only specific products? publicity? offers? For all products Raw materials costs? the quantity of raw materials? Get cheaper raw materials? Only for specific products Switching suppliers Negotiating better
Employee costs?

19 :41

Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue Sub-...issue Sub-...-issue Hypothesis
H1: Increasing the price of our entire family product will generate more revenue than the one lost because of the associated sales volume decrease H2: ... H3: ... H4: ...
Analysis
Data needed / Source

A1: Conduct simulation, benchmark
D1: Client interviews
Of only specific products? publicity? offers? the quantity of raw materials? Get cheaper raw materials?
A2: ... A3: ... A4: ...
D2: ... D3: ... D4: ...
For all products Raw materials costs? How can we our costs? Employee costs? Only for specific products Switching suppliers Negotiating better
The analysis tests if the hypothesis makes sense; it doesnt explain how to implement it!
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Each column describes in further detailor solves the previous one

Key question Sub-issue Sub-subissue Sub-...issue Sub-...-issue Because they think they dont need it Because they are lazy
Because they dont want Because they dont take courses Because they prefer to use other delivery methods Because they cant
Because they dont want to take a first one

Why arent there more instructors taking improvement courses online?
... Because they didnt like it
Because they tried it but dont want to take another
Because they think they dont need it
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Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They arent just titles
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How can we increase profitability? How can we increase revenue? How can we reduce costs?
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How can we increase profitability? How can we increase revenue? How can we reduce costs? How can we increase profitability? Increasing revenues
Reducing costs
21 :41
Reducing costs
Raw materials? How can we costs? Employees? Costos?
21 :41
How can we increase profitability?
Reducing costs
Raw materials? How can we costs? Employees? Costos?
Revenue
Costs
Doesnt work because you have to infere what to do with the revenue and costs
21 :41
Each move to the right must bring some value

Because they think they dont need it Because they dont want Because they dont take courses Because they dont want to take a first one
Why arent there more instructors taking improvement courses online?
Because they are lazy
Because they cant
Because they prefer to use other delivery methods
Because they didnt like it Because they tried it but dont want to take another
Because they think they dont need it
22 :41
Issue trees always diverge: each column has more elements than the previous one...
Adding the info of the new personnel
How can we maintain the personnel database up to date?
Eliminating the info of the personnel leaving the company Capturing the changes in the personnel moving within the company
23 :41
Adding the info of the new personnel
Own personnel Outsourced personnel

23 :41
1
Adding the info of the new personnel Adding the info of the new personnel Own personnel Outsourced personnel
23 :41
... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items
An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem: Either there are other possibilities or The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant
24 :41
... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items
An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem: Either there are other possibilities or The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant
How can we get more students? Increasing the inscription of new students

24 :41
Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings
C A B A B D Mutually exclusive sets Collectively exhaustive sets
D MECE sets
MECE?
25 :41
D MECE sets
MECE?
Why are the grades of my students mediocre?
Because they dont study enough Because I grade very steeply Because my evaluation tool is inappropriate Because the material of the exam wasnt covered in class Because they dont have the intellectual abilities
25 :41
D MECE sets
MECE?
Why are the grades of my students mediocre?
Because they dont study enough Because I grade very steeply Because my evaluation tool is inappropriate Because the material of the exam wasnt covered in class Because they dont have the intellectual abilities
25 :41
Issue trees are perspicacious
- Where am I?
26 :41
- Where am I?
- In a car, Mam
26 :41
- Where am I?
- In a car, Mam
-At the intersection of Westheimer and Fourth.
26 :41
Each tree progresses to the right consistently asking why or how (only one type for any given tree)
27 :41
Diagnostic - Why?
Cause
Break the problem in its potential causes
Problem
Cause
Cause
27 :41
Diagnostic - Why?
Cause
Problem
Cause
Cause
Solution - How?
Action
Identify alternative solutions for the problem
Problem
Action
Action
27 :41
Diagnostic - Why?
Cause
Problem
Cause
Cause
Solution - How?
Action
Identify alternative solutions for the problem
Problem
Action
Action
Each tree follow the same pattern (either it is a how or a why but not both
27 :41
How trees do not describe a sequential process; they show alternative solutions to the problem
Cartoons are from Cartoonbank.com
28 :41
1. Electing a means of transportation 2. Buying a ticket 3. Going to the port/ airport 4. Boarding
How can I go from NYC to London?

28 :41
Using a plane Using a helicopter 1. Electing a means of transportation 2. Buying a ticket 3. Going to the port/ airport 4. Boarding How can I go from NYC to London? Flying Using a balloon Using a rocket How can I go from NYC to London? With a raft
Traveling on the surface Traveling by sea
Swimming
Using a submarine
28 :41
How trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis
How can we improve the elaboration of invoices?
29 :41
How do we make the clients specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices?
29 :41
How do we know if our employees understand the specifications?

29 :41
How do we know if our employees understand the specifications? How do we ensure that our employees understand the specifications
29 :41
A few tips can help improve your trees

Make them parallel Diverge How do you improve your trees? Accept alternatives Enlist others Change as you go Make sense Adapt your level of confidence
30 :41
Effective trees are parallel They are parallel in action
31 :41

How can we improve our clients experience? Improving the shopping experience Improving the shopping experience
Following up after the sales
Improving the postsale experience
31 :41

They are parallel in construction
31 :41

They are parallel in construction

Reducing our delivery time How can we improve the postsale experience? Increasing our friendliness How can we solve the problem the first time our? Reducing our delivery time Increasing our friendliness Solving the problem the first time out
31 :41
Columns have elements of similar weight. You can check for this by ensuring that no column has an outlier
How do we increase revenues?
32 :41
Adding new services How do we increase revenues? Increasing prices Increasing volumes
32 :41
Adding new services How do we increase revenues? Increasing prices Increasing volumes
Increasing prices Increasing volumes
How do we increase revenues?
Increasing revenues with our current services
Adding new services
32 :41
You will need to be creative to have exhaustive trees, which will require to get out of your comfort zone
Value of the idea
Creative Obvious Absurd
Difficulty of implementation
Source: Accenture, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide
33 :41
To be creative, be prepared to ignore the consequences of your ideas, at least at the beginning
Nice, but well need an environmental-impact study, a warranty, recall bulletins, recycling facilities, and twenty-fourhour customer support.
34 :41
You can solve each problem with more than just one tree
Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group of sub-issues you are creating
35 :41
Reducing variable costs
How do we reduce our costs? Direct Reducing fixed costs Indirect
Classifying by cost type
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Reducing variable costs Reducing production costs
How do we reduce our costs? Direct Reducing fixed costs Indirect
Reducing marketing costs Reducing administrative costs
Reducing other costs
Classifying by cost type
Classifying by the origin of the cost
35 :41
As your analysis moves forward, be prepared to modify your tree
Apply judgement between satisficing (accepting the first acceptable solution) and maximizing (keep on searching for the optimal solution) Modify your tree as your analysis reveals if your hypotheses are true or false
See also Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice

36 :41
As your build your analytical structure, review it periodically to ensure it makes sense
Farewell my dear fellows, I am off to the Seven Years War!
37 :41
Problems have different orders of complexity

Problem types
Role of facts Role of expertise
Complexity
DETERMINISTIC, DIRECT A direct answer exist DETERMINISTIC, COMPUTED You can compute the answer RANDOM, FINITE You can identify all the possible answer but cannot pick the correct one RANDOM, CONTINUOUS The answer is part of a continuum, you can only determine its range E.g. How profitable will we be next quarter?
E.g. What is the height of the Eiffel Tower?
E.g. How do you convert liters to gallons
E.g. Who will be the largest car manufacturer in ten years?
Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

38 :41
You need to adapt your confidence in your solutions accordingly

Problem types
Role of expertise and probability of error Role of facts and trust in findings
Complexity
DETERMINISTIC, DIRECT A direct answer exist DETERMINISTIC, COMPUTED You can compute the answer RANDOM, FINITE You can identify all the possible answer but cannot pick the correct one RANDOM, CONTINUOUS The answer is part of a continuum, you can only determine its range E.g. How profitable will we be next quarter?
E.g. What is the height of the Eiffel Tower?
E.g. How do you convert liters to gallons
E.g. Who will be the largest car manufacturer in ten years?
Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

39 :41
Closing, basing your problem solving on key questions can improve it drastically
We all solve problems But we dont do it optimally

Define the problem
Understand the environment

Go from key question to analysis
Improve it
Define S, C, KQ
Dont make it too narrow nor too vague
Identify the quality criteria
Define the scope
Be MECE
Be perspicaci ous
Ask why or how
Be parallel
Diverge
Accept alternatives
Enlist others
Change as you go
Make sense
Adapt your confidence
40 :41
References
Andersen Consulting, Issue-Based Problem Solving, The Consulting Resource Book Version 3, September 1999 Linda Long, The Power of Logic in Problem Solving & Communication, Strategic Communication Consulting, 2004 Morgan D. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit, Random House: New York, 1998 James M. Higgins, 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques, New Management Publishing Company: Winter Park, 1994 James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds, Random House, 2004 Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice, HarperCollins, 2004 Strategic Services, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide, Internal Publication, Accenture Issue-Based Problem Solving, Internal Publication, Accenture Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle, Minto International: London, 1996 Edward de Bono, Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas Michael Michalko, Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Business Creativity for the 90s
41 :41
See more at powerful-problem-solving.com
Friday, July 9, 2010

Analytical Problem Solving

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ANALYTICAL PROBLEM-SOLVING

Copyright, Arnaud Chevallier. All rights reserved.

Arnaud Chevallier / July 2010 (Revised)

See more at powerful-problem-solving.com

We all solve problems daily

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

But most of us havent received formal training on how to do it

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

We all solve problems

But we dont do it optimally

Basing your problemsolving on key questions can help

Define the problem

Identify the solution

Define the key question

Understand the context

Build the issue tree

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

Basing your problemsolving on key questions can help

Define the problem

Identify the solution

Define the key question

Understand the context

Build the issue tree

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

Basing your problemsolving on key questions can help

Define the problem

Identify the solution

Define the key question

Understand the context

Build the issue tree

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

This can be more difficult than it sounds

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem

How can we increase the capacity of the lot?

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem

Reducing the area not dedicated to parking

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

How can we reduce the number of cars?

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

Using a new parcel Reducing the size of each space

How can we solve the saturation of the lot?

Reducing the number of employees

Increasing the number of employees per car

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010

The key question encompasses all the other relevant ones

See more at http://powerful-problem-solving.com Friday, July 9, 2010