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March 22, 2013
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Consumer products 136 (9) 0.5 220/116 6,949 10 18,736 5,651 IFBA.BO IFBA IN
`151 `198
12 Months
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.0 1.3 14.3 29.4
3m (2.6)
1yr 6.4
(12.3) (15.9)
Shareen Batatawala
+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849 shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com
(million cases)
(litres p.a.)
10 8 6 4
8.7
8.2
7.3 4.7
133
127
109
64
61
49
2 0
1.0
China
USA
Russia
Japan
Thailand
South Korea
Brazil
Philippines
Germany
India
Germany
USA
France
Source: IWSR
New Zealand
Canada
China
Japan
India
U.K.
FY2015E 627 182 31 413 225 851 200 651 53 22 31 6 59 8.4 12.0 7.5 2.8 8.9
430 88 22 220 100 155 585 142 442 28 11 18 8 37 6.5 12.0 8.0 5.5 8.3
436 98 26 255 58 170 606 150 456 31 12 19 7 38 7.1 12.0 7.5 4.4 8.2
463 111 28 324 195 658 163 495 38 13 24 4 42 8.1 12.0 7.5 2.2 8.3
Financials
Exhibit 4: Key Assumptions
FY2014E Alcohol Marine Products Marine Feed Trading Goods
Source: Angel Research
70 63.0 60 50
(%)
400 300 200 100 0 356 FY2011 442 FY2012 Revenue (LHS) 467 5.7 FY2013E 508 8.6 667 24.4
40 31.5 30 20 10 0 FY2015E
FY2014E
( ` cr)
(%)
20 15 10 5 0
(` )
200 150 100 50 0 Mar-08 Mar-09 Price Mar-10 2x Mar-11 5x 8x Mar-12 11x Mar-13
(%)
11.4
( ` cr)
Concerns
Regulations in liquor business
Liquor business is highly regulated in India. Major regulations which have a direct impact on the companies include: Volatility in excise duty on liquor Ban on advertising Price hike limited to once a year Interstate transfer fees of molasses- a key raw material Distribution barrier Limited SKUs result in slower distribution expansion
Company Background
IFB Agro Industries is engaged in the business of manufacturing alcohol, bottling of branded alcoholic beverages as well as processed and packed marine foods both for domestic & export markets. The company has two broad business categories:
Alcohol
This consists of distillery, IMFL and IMIL (Country liquor) segments. Distillery: Distillery is situated at Noorpur, West Bengal with an installed capacity of 60,000 liters per day based on molasses. In addition, the company has grain distillery with capacity of 60,000 liters per day. The company plans to convert the molasses distillery into a multi-feed distillery going forward. IMFL: The IMFL division has two manufacturing units in Kolkata. Apart from producing own brands, the unit also produces brands like "Smirnoff" of DIAGEO and brands of United Spirits. IMIL (Country Spirit): Company is the largest manufacturer of IMIL, popularly known as Country spirit.
Marine
Domestic business: It comprises of products like IFB Royal Prawns, IFB Prawn POPS and Breaded Fish Fillets, Ready to Fry Prawn/ Fish products, freshly frozen prawn/ fish available from over 800 food stores across the country's metros and tier 2 cities. The company has tie-ups with well-known brands like Le Meridien, Jaypee Hotels, The Leela, Maharajas Express, Mainland China, Marriott and Taj Hotels which would support domestic business growth going forward. Exports: The company exports its tailor-made products across geographies including USA, Europe, Japan, Australia, and the Middle East, to suit customers' needs. The products are sold under three major brands Aquafresh, IFB Royal and IFB Crown. Feeds business: IFB has tied up with C.P. Group of Thailand for farming and distribution of feed to the farmers. The company is the largest distributor of C.P. Feeds (Thailand) in West Bengal. IFB also operates "Aqua Shops" which are a one-stop-shop for many other inputs required for aqua culture, like nets, aerators, chemicals for soil and water etc.
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability (Net) Other Long-term liabilities Long Term Provisions Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Long term Loans & adv Other non-current assets Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Current liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Exp. not written off Total Assets 135 65 71 0 3 1 2 61 8 15 27 11 37 25 102 154 77 78 1 3 0 1 82 13 11 37 20 40 42 125 200 92 109 20 3 0 1 77 12 12 37 16 40 37 170 301 114 186 40 3 0 1 79 11 13 37 18 43 36 267 361 141 220 30 3 0 2 102 18 17 44 23 53 50 304 8 79 87 2 8 4 1 102 8 105 113 0 7 4 1 125 9 149 158 0 7 4 1 170 9 176 185 70 7 5 1 267 9 211 220 70 7 6 1 304 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC Cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) (0.1) (0.3) 14.6 (0.1) (0.3) 101.2 (0.1) (0.3) 106.2 0.3 0.9 8.6 0.2 0.6 6.5 2.7 29 11 42 21 3.1 27 13 35 19 2.6 29 13 35 21 2.0 27 13 35 18 2.0 22 13 33 15 25.5 33.5 23.1 32.2 41.7 25.9 26.0 31.9 19.8 19.2 21.8 15.4 20.7 23.2 17.6 7.6 0.7 4.4 22.8 0.1 0.0 23.9 8.2 0.7 5.1 29.0 0.2 (0.1) 25.5 8.2 0.7 3.9 21.4 1.3 (0.1) 19.0 8.3 0.7 2.6 14.6 0.1 0.1 16.1 8.9 0.7 2.6 15.5 0.1 0.3 19.6 22.4 22.4 32.5 108.2 32.3 32.3 48.9 141.3 29.9 29.9 46.6 175.7 29.3 29.3 54.3 205.0 39.5 39.5 69.6 244.5 7.6 5.2 1.6 0.4 3.6 1.3 5.3 3.5 1.2 0.3 2.4 1.0 5.1 3.2 0.9 0.3 2.3 0.7 5.2 2.8 0.7 0.4 3.0 0.7 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.3 2.1 0.6 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
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Ratings (Returns):
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