Impact of Deforestation on Precipitation 1.

2
Relative Precipitation

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 20 40 60 Deforestation (%) 80 100

Impact of Deforestation on Precipitation 1.2

Relative Precipitation

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 20 40 60 Deforestation (%) 80 100

Impact of Deforestation on Precipitation 1.2

Relative Precipitation

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 20 40 60 Deforestation (%) 80 100

Impact of Deforestation on Precipitation 1.2

Relative Precipitation

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 20 40 60 Deforestation (%) 80 100

Local, Regional and Global Effects of Amazon Deforestation

Scientific Questions Does human modification of the landscape affect the and D. Werth characteristics R. ofAvissar the atmosphere, the hydrological Duke University cycle and water resources? IfRoy yes, where? What are S. Baidya the spatial scales of forcing and the spatial scales of Princeton University C.P. Weaver response? To what extent? And when? Rutgers University Outline 1. Regional impact of LU/LCC on convection: GCIP and LBA studies 2. Teleconnections: A GCM analysis 3. Conclusions and research direction
Research funded by NOAA and NASA

Grid 1

Simulation Characteristics
3 nested grids (2x2; 8x8; 32x32 km); 38 vertical levels up to 22 km 6 a.m. - 6 p.m.; 10 s time step in Grid 3; NCEP reanalysis assimilated in Grid 1, including wind, geopotential height, potential temperature, and relative humidity; Surface fluxes from Zhong and Doran derived from ARM/CART observations and RAMS surface scheme in Grids 1 & 2, with IGBP vegetation class; Subgrid-scale turbulence of Mellor & Yamada; Radiation of Chen and Cotton.

Grid 2 Grid 3

Raingauge & Weather Surveillance Doppler Radar (WSR-88D) Network of Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) http://www.abrfc.noaa.gov

Impact of surface heat flux heterogeneity With observed fluxes With domain-averaged fluxes

Horizontal cross-section of w (m/s), 1300 m above ground surface

July 13, 1995 July 21, 1995 July 06, 1995

July 10, 1995 July 07, 1995 July 12, 1995

8 9 10 11 12 13 65 64 63 62 61 60

Simulation Characteristics
3 nested grids (1x1; 4x4; 16x16 km grid-spacing); 38 vertical levels up to 24 km; 7 a.m. - 7 p.m.; 5 s time step in Grid 3; NCEP reanalysis assimilated in Grid 1, including wind, geopotential height, potential temperature, and relative humidity; Surface fluxes from RBLE3 observations and RAMS soilvegetation model in Grid 1, with IGBP vegetation class; Subgrid-scale turbulence of Mellor & Yamada; Radiation of Chen and Cotton.

w (m/s) at 3 p.m., 500 m

Clouds at 3 p.m. (from GOES)

Impact of surface heat flux heterogeneity

Teleconnection Experiment

Use of the GISS Model II GCM to study regional and global effects of the Amazon deforestation; Control has mix of forests and grassland (current vegetation); Deforestation assumes that the Amazon rainforest is converted into a mix of shrub and grassland; Six 12-year realizations for each case.

4x5 degree resolution; Heat and humidity advected with quadratic upstream scheme; Momentum advected with 2nd order scheme; Second order closure PBL; 6 soil layers, hydrology; Climatological SSTs.

Europe

North Asia Central Asia India

NCA SEA Gulf West Pacific Central America Amazon

Central Africa Indian Ocean

South Africa

Australia

Amazon
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 month

Gulf of Mexico
7 6

mm/day

Central America
4.5 4

mm/day

5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 month 8 9 10 11 12

mm/day

3.5 3 2.5 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 month

West Pacific
9 8.5 7 6.5

Indian Ocean

mm/day

mm/day
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 month 8 9 10 11 12

6 5.5 5 4.5 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 month 8 9 10 11 12

7.5 7

6.5 6

Dakotas NORTH CENTRAL Midwest Triangle

Dakotas
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 month 5 4

Dakotas

mm/day

mm/day

3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 year 5 6 7 8

Midwest Triangle
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 month

Midwest Triangle
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 year 5 6 7 8

mm/day

mm/day

True ensemble
Total Precipitation Difference (Threshold Value is 0.125 mm/day)
10 9 8 7

C 1 D1 C 2 D2 C 3 D3 C 4 D4 C 5 D5 C 6 D6

mm/day

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Deforest-Control (True Ensemble) Mean of False Ensembles

False ensembles
C1 C3 C5 C1 C3 C4 D1 D3 D5 D1 D3 D4 C2 C4 C6 C2 C5 C6 D2 D4 D6 D2 D5 C1 C2 C3 C1 C2 C3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 C3 C4 C5 C5 C6 C4 D3 D4 D5 D5 D6 D3 D 4

D6

Conclusions
Both in the Amazon and the Central US regions, the atmospheric boundary layer is significantly affected by land use / land cover change (LU/LCC); LU/LCC in the Amazon significantly affects the regional hydroclimatology of South America and other tropical regions, and to a lesser but still significant degree, the hydroclimatology of North America. Convective activity is one of the key factors that trigger teleconnections between tropical regions and mid latitudes; Frequently, the landscape heterogeneity created by LU/LCC generates horizontal pressure gradients strong enough to generate and sustain organized mesoscale circulations (synoptic flow determine the orientation of these circulations); These circulations affect convective activity, clouds and precipitation. These circulations are neither resolved by, nor parameterized in, GCMs. Clearly, this limits our capability to estimate the real magnitude of teleconnections between the Amazon and the rest of the world.

Impact of Deforestation on Precipitation 1.2

Relative Precipitation

1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 20 40 60 Deforestation (%) 80 100

 = + = + = + +
ui ui + uj t x j = i 3 g 2 ijk j uk uiuj ui uj 2 ui 1 p + x i x x j x 2 j j

ui ui ui ui + uj + uj + uj = t x j x j x j i3 ujui uj ui v 2 ui 1 p g 2 ijk j uk + + v x i x x j x 2 j j

uj uj 2 + uj + uj + uj = + + t x j x j x j x j x j x 2 j

uj ui ui ui ui + uj + u j + ui u j + = t x j x j x j x g 1 p + 2 ijk j uk + i3 v + ui x i v uj ui uj 2 ui 2 + ui ui 2 x x x 2 x j j j

Publications
Liu, Y. , C.P. Weaver, and R. Avissar, 1999. Towards the parameterization of convection induced by landscape heterogeneity in GCMs. J. Geophys. Res., 104:19515-19533.

Weaver, C.P. and R. Avissar, 2001. Atmospheric Disturbances Caused by Human Modification of the Landscape. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 82:269-281.
Baidya Roy, S. and R. Avissar. The impacts of land use / land cover change

in the Amazon on its regional hydroclimatology. J. Geophys. Res. (LBA Special Issue), accepted for publication. Weaver, C.P., S. Baidya Roy, and R. Avissar. A sensitivity analysis of largescale boundary-layer characteristics to initialization and forcing under realistic meteorological and surface conditions. J. Geophys. Res. (LBA Special Issue), in revision.

Werth, D. and R. Avissar. Regional and global impacts of Amazon deforestation. J. Geophys. Res. (LBA Special Issue), accepted for publication.

Werth, D. and R. Avissar. Amazon evaporation, clouds, and radiation. J. Geophys. Res. (LBA Special Issue), in revision.

January Amazon
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 year 5 6 7 8

mm/day

August Gulf of Mexico

7

August Central America

5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2

5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 year 5 6 7 8

mm/day

mm/day

4 year

February West Pacific 9 8.5

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4

October Indian Ocean

mm/day

7.5 7 6.5 6 1 2 3 4 year 5 6 7 8

mm/day

4 year