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Workshop on Indian Militarys Cold Start Doctrine and its Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia (20-22 July 2010) BY INVITATION ONLY
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WORKSHOP CONCEPT
th On April 28 2004, the Indian Chief of Army Staff General Padmanabhan initiated the process of formulating a new war doctrine, titled Cold Start which revolves around the employment of integrated 1 battle groups for offensive operations. According General Padamanbhan the Indian Cold Start will be attempted whenever possible to achieve surprise and maximise gains. The entire border is likely to be activated with shallow thrusts, very heavy firepower and short span manoeuvres. Nuclear weapons may not be used; their use may, however, be threatened. Special Forces and coup-de-main forces will play a major role. Integrated action by all three services will be crucial for the enhancement of our combat power vis--vis the adversarys. Levels of technology employed in the wars will be higher than at present. Wars will end in stalemate, with little or no gain, and heavy losses to military as well as civilian targets. In the case of Bangladesh, the threat is of such a low level as to be non-serious. However in the skirmishing, the danger of casualties to unarmed civilians 2 will be great and will need to be handled with firmness and imagination. .

! The strategy unveiled in 2004 has taken a significant importance with the statement given by the Indian Chief of the Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor in November 2009 that the possibility of a limited war 3 under a nuclear over hang in the region was likely to exist and reality. ! Stating his reasons he had argued that South Asia along with West Asia had emerged as one of the epicenters of conflict and instability, and with absence of a common consensus to combat this threat the possibility of territorial disputes, provocation by proxy wars, religious fundamentalism, radical extremism, 4 ethnic tensions and socio- economic disparities, were to further exacerbate the situation on ground . This the Indian Army chief argued would invariably link sub conventional conflicts to situations leading to preemptive action/ strikes under the cold start doctrine. ! The Cold Start Doctrine is based on the concept of pre-emptive strike and it calls for rapid deployment of Integrated Battle Groups comprising of major elements of Army with the close support of the Air Force, and if the need arises fronts may be opened and expanded to include Naval operations: the primary thrust of 5 the operations aimed at creating conditions for limited war. These battle groups could be used individually for
1 Dr Subhash Kapila, Indias New Cold Start Doctrine Strategically Reviewed, Paper N0 991, 04 May2004; http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers10%5Cpaper991.html. 2 General S Padmanabhan, Wednesday, 21 June 2006 20:01, Indian Army 2010, http://www.bharatrakshak.com/SRR/2006/02/58.html 3 24 November2009 ,The News. 4 Ibid. 5 Y. I Patel, Dig Vijay to Divya Astra : A Paradigm Shift in the Indian Army's Doctrine, http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/LAND-FORCES/History/Millenium/324-A-Paradigm-Shift.html

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limited operations, or in conjunction for operations of a greater scale based on the concept of 6 blitzkrieg. ! Doctrine and Assumptions ! The aim of the new war fighting doctrine is to increase the Indian military strike options for a possibly retaliatory or pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan without invoking the Pakistani nuclear threshold in short aiming to create conditions of a limited war. The military policy of fighting a war with Pakistan as a LW envisages Cold Start Doctrine as a war fighting Doctrine for achieving the core objectives. ! The Cold Start doctrine envisages an increase in the Indian military options based on a situation where Indian armed forces can have sufficient military success that can be used achieve limited political 7 objectives before an international intervention or the conflict turns nuclear. ! According to the recent statement General Deepak Kapoor (Indian COAS), The possibility of limited war 8 under a nuclear overhang is still a reality in South Asia. ! The doctrine requires the re division of the Indian army from the existing three major strike corps into 9 eight integrated battle groups(IGB) buffed by the mechanised , artillery and armoured divisions. The aim is to launch multiple strikes within seventy two hours of the first strike , approximately 50-70 km inside Pakistani territory, with close support of the air and naval components . ! Furthermore CSD would entail combined operations between Indias three services and integrated battle groups for offensive actions against Pakistan without crossing Pakistans nuclear threshold. ! To implement this doctrine India will restructure its armys offensive power from three strike corps to eight smaller division-sized Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) that combine with mechanized infantry, artillery and armour. Indian Holding Corps or Pivot Corps would undertake limited offensive operation to give time to IBGs to strike hard on already softened targets by the Pivot Corps. The IBGs would be selfcontained and highly-mobile, adequately backed by air cover and artillery fire assaults, for rapid thrusts 10 into enemy territory with the major offensive in the first 96 hours. Main characteristics of the Cold Start Doctrine will be; 1. Element of Surprise
6 Ibid 7 Y. I Patel, Dig Vijay to Divya Astra : a Paradigm Shift in the Indian Army's Doctrine, http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/LAND-FORCES/History/Millenium/324-A-Paradigm-Shift.html 8 Possibility of limited war in S Asia: Indian Army chief, The News, November 24, 2009. 9 Walter C. LadwigIII ,Cold Start For Hotwars? The Indian Armys New Limited War Doctrine, International Security , Vol 32,No.3( Winter 2007/08)p164. 10 Dr. Subhash Kapila, Indias new "Cold Start" war doctrine strategically reviewed , South Asian Analysis Group, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers10%5Cpaper991.html). Accessed on November 15, 2009).

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2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Integration among the armed forces Quick, Swift and Day and Night Operations Combine Mechanised Infantry, Artillery and Armour Close air support/ massive fire power Pivot corps (Holding Corps) Would act offensively Aims would be Limited Major offensive to be launched in the first 72/96 hours for IBGs to enter Pakistani territory and achieve primary objectives. 9. Robust Command and Control 10. Strikes below the Pakistans nuclear threshold 11. To have a politico-military superiority in the interest of India. ! Assumptions: ! 1)The operational success is based on the assumption that the deployment would be rapid achieving quick success; 2) element of surprise will be achieved ;3) Pakistani response will be muted;4) it will not invoke a Pakistani nuclear response;5)sufficient military objectives will be achieved by the Indian army to paralyse a cohesive Pakistani response; 6) the operations would be conducted with rapid mobilization and on multiple fronts so as to achieve mission objectives before the international pressure can be crystallised. ! Implications & Reponses ! The Cold Start doctrine postulates the non use of nuclear weapons in the region or in the event of an out break of war between Indian and Pakistan; based on the notion of pre- emption and offensive operations. ! However, the doctrine received a strong response from Pakistan with the statement made by the chairman of the civilian-military National Command Authority (NCA) warning India of any misadventure in Pakistan. The NCA of Pakistan, meeting under Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on January 13, 2009 stated that it had taken "serious note of recent Indian statements about conducting conventional military strikes under a nuclear umbrella" and said "such irresponsible statements reflected a hegemonic mindset, oblivious of dangerous implications of adventurism in a nuclearized context Massive inductions of advanced weapon systems, including installation of ABMs (anti- ballistic missiles), build-up of nuclear arsenal and delivery systems through ongoing and new programs, assisted by some external quarters, offensive doctrines like Cold Start and similar accumulations in the conventional 11 realm, tend to destabilize the regional balance." ! The Pakistani response was elucidated further by the Pakistani chief of army Staff who clearly stated that the consequences of any misadventure in a nuclear overhang can be suicidal for India. General Kayani stated that Pakistan would response in full strength while using all types of resources,we plan on adversaries capabilities, not intentions and Yes, we(paksitan) are India-centric We have unresolved issues, a history of
11 14 January 2010 , The News

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conflict and now the cold start doctrine is turning the traditional theory of war on its head, TheCold Start would permit the Indian Army to attack before fully mobilizing the entire military army in an offensive position, increasing the possibility of a sudden spiral escalation he further elaborated. This statement was supplemented by the Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar who said that Pakistan has put all the required preparations in place to meet any eventuality. The aggressor could not even think of what the reply would be from Pakistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has kept its assets for thwarting conventional threats from the force devoted to deal with the terrorists. Similarly, the Pakistan Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC) Chairman General Tariq Majid stated that Leave alone China, General Deepak Kapoor knows very well what the Indian Army cannot and the Pakistan Army can pull off militarily,. ! The difference in the perception of what is a nuclear threshold of a nuclear Pakistan and the response options clearly cause a challenge to the existing strategic stability in the region which requires further inquiry. ! Strategic stability means the absence of conflict, war, and balance derives from the broader needs, desires, concerns and national interests of state parties viz-a-viz their military objectives. In the search of strategic stability there are three approaches first to exercise and manipulate threat through deterrence; second the management of vulnerability through the assurance of safety, security and command and control; and third the management of threat through arms control and confidence-building and threat reduction measures. All these are challenged by the new Indian cold start doctrine with which has a fundamental implications and repercussions for the region and international security. ! Given the historical experience of India-Pakistans turbulent relations and the in swing hostility is but a recipe for disaster ad regional stability. Since May 1998 deterrence stability has prevails and it was argued that nuclearization of the region has stabilized the military context. There had been many instances in history, which brought both countries to a crisis situation but due to nuclear deterrence no escalation had taken place. This nuclear deterrence has been under test by the complex realities of the region and if CSD is operationalized tipping the balance towards stability. ! In addition, Indian is rapidly accelerating its defense modernization and military responsiveness by increasing both the offensive and defensive weapons systems. Indian is on course to develop capabilities to implement its new war doctrine. It has allocated 12 $31.71 billion for the defense budget in 2010. This increased military spending only
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Anirban Chaudhary, India to Spend 1.47 Trillion Rupees on Defense Wall Street Journal,(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126717059610452143.html?mod=googlenews_wsj., Accessed on March 10, 2010. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute- (SIPRI) India has become the worlds second largest arms purchaser during last five years competing with China. Indias imports of arms went as high as seven per cent of the worlds arms exports. From 2005 to 2009, Indias annual arms imports doubled: $1.04 billion (2005); $1.25 billion (2006); $2.2 billion (2007); $1.8 billion (2008) and $2.1 billion (2009). It added that Indias major imports included 82 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters and T-90 tanks from Russia, and an A-

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adds to the spiral of instability as it causes conventional imbalance threatening the core of nuclear stability in the region. ! The possibility of a growing prospect of an arms race in South Asia is further exceberated by the existing nuclear relationship. ! This today stands challenged with the introduction and possible operalisation of the new Indian warfighting doctrine of cold start particularly as the Cold Start is a preemptive strategy which supports the idea of a limited war in a nuclear environment.

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The introduction of the doctrine has solicited a Pakistani response and would be followed by the Pakistani counter measures as it would aim for strategic equivalence with India. The difference in perceptions, the growing possibility of the introduction of Cold start doctrine in the India- Pakistan theater and the culminative effect of the military modernization and expansion of the Indian army has repercussion for the strategic stability in the region ; Given this context the purpose of this workshop is to elaborate the cold start doctrine ; possible Pakistani responses ; likely changes in the nuclear doctrine and the implication on the nuclear doctrine and the larger question of strategic stability.

! Core Objectives of the Conference: ! 1. To highlight the threats to the Strategic Stability in South Asia by CSD 2. Describe Indian Cold Start Doctrine 3. Assumptions of the Doctrine Regional Military development as rapid Military Development 4. To analyse the Military Capabilities of India and its deficiencies in the implementation of CSD. 5. Aim to explore Pakistans military capabilities to counter CSD. 6. Pakistani Responses and capability Overhaul 7. Nuclear Doctrinal Challenge 8. Doctrinal implications on Strategic Stability of the Region. 9. To draw on military ad political measures for reducing threat ad ensuing a relationship of strained and two protagonist states. ! Workshop Programme The workshop will be covered in three and a half days. Please find attached the detailed programme. Kindly indicate the desired breakout session which you would like to attend - registration may be done on the day of the conference. Seats are limited therefore it is requested that please kindly send in the confirmation as soon as possible.
12 50/Phalcon Airborne Early Warning (AEW) system integrated by Israel. As it has been described that Cold Start Doctrine would require swift, day and night operations, the offensive strikes would need active support by advanced C4I (Command, Control, 12 Communications, Computers and Intelligence) network and systems. Keeping in mind this notion India is developing its overall military capabilities. India is going to spend about $ 30 billion on acquisition of military hardware and software by 2012. Indian military growth threatens S. Asian stability: Pakistan Asia One,See also http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20100226-201022.html). Accessed on March 12, 2010.

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Tentative Programme
Recitation from Holy Quran Reception / Inaugural Dinner followed by Key Note Address of Minister of Defence Chaudhary Ahmed Mukhtar On Monday, 19 July, 2010, At 1830-2030hrs at the Serena Hotel, Islamabad, (Only Select Invites)

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DAY I July 20, 2010

8:45-9:15
09:15-10:00

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Conference Registration Opening Session (Venue: Serena Hotel, Islamabad) ! Recitation from Holy Quran ! Welcome Remarks by Director General Maria Sultan South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) ! Keynote Address by Chief Guest Lt.Gen (Retd) Syed Athar Ali HI (M) Tea/Coffee Break

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10:00-10:15

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Session I:
10:15-11:00
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Introduction and Theoretical Reference

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Remarks by Director General Maria Sultan, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) Khalid Banuri, Director Arms Control & Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) Workshop Outline: Ghazala Nayyar Research Fellow, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

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Chair: Dr. Anwar Hussain Siddique, President International Islamic University

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Session II

Plenary Cold Start Concept and Evaluation:Definitions (Cold Start/Proactive Ops) Conventional Doctrine - Pakistan-India
Speakers: Lt. Gen. Hamid Khan, Former President National Defence University - Cold Start Conventional Doctrines and Evaluations (India-Pakistan) Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Advisor on Nuclear Affairs SASSI/Assistant Professor, International Relations Department of Quaid-i-Azam University - India's Cold Start Doctrine: Philosophy and Dynamics Masood-ur-Rehman- Indian Cold Start Doctrine Capabilities and limitations Chair: Gen. Hamid Nawaz, Former Minister for Interior/Former Secretary Defence

11:00-12:00

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Breakout Session
Coordinators: Masood-ur-Rehman, Tahir Nazir, Rida Zeenat, Sidra Ambreen Cold Start Doctrine Proactive Two-Front War Elements to be discussed are: Limitations of Indian Cold Start Doctrine Capabilities of Indian Army to operationalize Cold Start Doctrine India-Pakistan Deterrence Stability Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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Session III
12:45-13:45

Plenary Cold Start Assumptions

Speakers: 2

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Brig. Naeem Salik, Academic Advisor National Defence University - Cold Start: Its Assumptions and Implications on Strategic Stability Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Advisor on Nuclear Affairs SASSI/Assistant Professor, International Relations Department of Quaid-i-Azam University- Cold Start Assumptions: Critical Analysis Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani, Ex-DG Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)- Cold Start: its implications on Strategic Stability Ms. Sobia Saeed Paracha, Research Fellow, SASSI-Cold Start: Structural Context Chair: Dr. Rodney Jones, President Policy Architects International /Associate Fellow SASSI
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13:45- 14:30
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Breakout Session
Coordinators: Sobia Saeed, Sannia Abdullah , Haleema Sadia, Col. Saeed Ahmed Minhas. Actual- Perceived - Operational

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South Asia: limited war is not an option Stability-instability paradox outplayed by India (Sub-conventional, conventional) Vs (conventional, nuclear warfare) use of nuclear weapons at the outset Nuclear Terrorism and Cold Start Rising on the escalation ladder Two-front war for Pakistan and India Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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14:30-15:30
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Lunch

Session IV

Plenary Military Developments and implications for Arms Race

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15:30-16:30

Speakers: Dr. Rodney Jones, President Policy Architects International/ Associate Fellow SASSI - Introduction of Future Technologies (Military Capabilities) and its Implications for Strategic Stability Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Former Dean of Social Sciences Quaid-i-Azam University Introduction of Future Technologies (Military Capabilities) and its Implications for Strategic Stability (India) Chair: Lt.Gen. Talat Masood, Former Federal Secretary

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16:30-17:15
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Breakout Session
Coordinators: Sajida Mansoor, Afsah Qazi, Raja Nusrat Kamal, Majid Mehmood, Mohammad Shakar, Mobeen Tariq. NMD, Networkcentric Warfare, Aircompenents

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Network-centric Warfare Capabilities of India and Pakistan and their Impact on Cold Start Operations Role of Armoured (tanks) in India-Pakistan Confrontation Role of National Missile Defence (NMD) in Cold Start Operations Comparative Airpower Capabilities of India and Pakistan and Cold Start Operationalization Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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17:15-17:30

Tea Break

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DAY-II July 21, 2010

09:20-09:30 Recitation from Holy Quran 4

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09:30-10:30 10:30-10:45

Conference Registration Tea Break

Session V
10:45-12:30

Plenary Strategic Stability Implications Pakistans Response

Speakers: Dr. Rifaat Hussain, Chairman Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University-Cold Start and Nuclear Deterrence South Asia Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Professor, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) - Cold Start: Implications for Strategic Stability Hamid Hamza Khan, Regional Director for Central Asia & Afghanistan, SASSI- Fourth Generation Warfare/cold start doctrine Chair: Dr. Tanveer Ahmed, Director General Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad

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12:30-13:20

Breakout Session
Coordinators: Hamid Hamza, Dr.Nasrullah Mirza, Jawad Aziz, Nasir Naveed., Sitara Noor. Implications of Cold Start for South Asian Stability Arms Race in South Asia Efficacy of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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13:30-15:00

Special Lunch Key Note Speaker: Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Federal Minister F or Foreign Affair Plenary International Response
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Session VI

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15:00-16:30

Speakers: Tariq Osman Hyder, Former Ambassador/Member for Strategic Export Controls, Ministry of Foreign AffairsPakistan-India Confrontation: Role of US/UN Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Former Ambassador/Former Advisor to Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) matters/ Senior Associate Fellow, SASSI-Cold Start: Response from China and East Asia. Brig. Gen Feroz Hassan Khan, Associate Fellow, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)/ Senior Researcher at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, California, USAThreat of Two-front War under CSD and Role of EU/NATO Chair: Khalid Banuari, Director Arms Control & Disarmament Affairs (ACDA)

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16:30-17:15

Breakout Session
Coordinators: Shumaila Ishaque, Abida, Salma Shaheen Elements to be discussed are: Indo-Pakistan-China: Strategic Triangle Indo-Pakistan-US: Strategic Triangle Development of Cold Start Doctrine and its impact on War on Terror: How would the Great Powers react: Regional Impact. International Organizations. Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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17:15-17:30

Tea Break

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DAY III July 22, 2010

08:50-09:00 09:00-10:00 Recitation from Holy Quran Conference Registration 6

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10:00-10:15

Tea Break

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Session VII
10:15-11:15

Plenary National Response

Speakers: Dr. Tanveer Ahmed Khan, Director General Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI)-Pakistans response to Indian cold start Dr. Noman Sattar, Head of Department of Nuclear politics & Strategic Studies, National Defence University-Cold Start and National Response

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Gen. Hamid Nawaz, Former Minister for Interior/Former Secretary Defence-National context and Cold Start Chair: Akram Zaki, Former Ambassador /Senator.

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11:15-12:00

Breakout Session
Coordinators: Hamid Hamza, Dilshad Bano, Kanwal Batool, Nimra Safdar,

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Political Response Military Response Insurgent Response Media Response Breakout Report back to the Plenary

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Session VIII
12:00-13:00

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Plenary Pakistan Counter Measures and Nuclear Doctrine

Speakers: Maria Sultan, Director General SASSI-Pakistans Nuclear Doctrine and implications for Deterrence and strategic Stability: The theory of integrated strategic equallance

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Lt. Gen. Tariq Waseem Ghazi, Former Secretary Defence- To counter Cold Start Doctrine: Pakistans Possible Response Brig. Khursheed- Relationship between Nuclear Doctrines of India and Pakistan And The Cold Start Strategy Chair: Dr. Pervaz Iqbal Cheema, Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies (FCS) National Defence University 13:00-13:45 Lunch

Concluding Session Session IX

13:45-14:45 14:45-15:15

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Plenary Implications for Strategic Stability

All session chairs report back Roundtable Concluding Remarks by Qamer Zaman Kaira, Minister of Information

15:15-16:45 16:45-17:00

Chaired by Director General Maria Sultan SASSI Tea Break

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