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Communications Director
Department of Climate Change
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While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of
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this publication.
February 2008
EXECUTIVE i
SUMMARY
70
BAU
60
WM High
50 WM Best
WM Low
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
In the High scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 39.6 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (36 per cent above the 1990 level) and 60.0 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (106 per cent above the 1990 level).
In the Low scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 35.2 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (21 per cent above the 1990 level) and 43.9 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (51 per cent above the 1990 level).
Growth in emissions from the Fugitive sector is associated with both the level of production and the
greenhouse intensity of the extraction process for each coal mine or gas field.
ii EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Impact of Measures
The impact of greenhouse response measures is estimated to be 8.5 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period
and is estimated to increase slightly to 9.8 Mt CO2-e by 2020.
Abatement is achieved through the Greenhouse Challenge Plus programme, the Greenhouse Gas Abatement
Programme (GGAP) and the more recently initiated Australian Coal Mine Methane Reduction Programme
(ACMMRP). These programmes include a number of projects that reduce Fugitive emissions from coal
mining, oil refining and gas production. Abatement of Fugitive emissions from coal mining involves
capturing the waste coal mine methane (WCMM), for flaring, generating electricity on-site or piping for
offsite power-generation.
Measures are estimated to reduce Fugitive emissions in the Coal sector by 6.6 Mt CO2-e in per year over the
Kyoto period and also by 6.3 Mt CO2-e in 2020, while Fugitive emissions in the Oil and Gas sector are
reduced by 1.9 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period and by 3.5 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
12
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ye a r
T o ta l M e a s u re s C o a l M e a s u re s O il & G a s M e a s u re s
Source: DCC analysis 2008, Barlow Jonker 2006/Energy Strategies 2006 data.
EXECUTIVE iii
SUMMARY
Coal:
Compared with the 2006 projection, emissions in the Coal sector are projected to be 2.4 Mt CO2-e lower per
year over the Kyoto period in the “With Measures” scenario. This change includes a decrease in BAU
emissions of 2.0 Mt CO2-e and an increase in abatement of 0.3 Mt CO2-e.
A reduction of 2.2 Mt CO2-e from more widespread use of specific emission factors for individual
coal mines. The most recent NGGI includes some additional site-specific emission factors for
several major underground mines. Using these specific emission factors in place of the default Class
A and Class B emission factors which were used in previous inventories and the 2006 projection can
make a significant difference to the projection.
o Some “gassy” Class A mines have become even more gassy as a result of using the more
precise specific emission factors, while other have become less “gassy”. Some less “gassy”
Class B mines have also become significantly more “gassy” as a result of the change.
o The NGGI includes mines that have recently been reclassified from Class B to Class A.
The site-specific emission factors for these particular mines have not changed, however
their mining emissions levels are now considered to be within the range of Class A
emissions. Class B mines are not considered to contribute to post-mining emissions,
whereas Class A mines do. Hence, reclassification of a mine from Class B to Class A
requires addition of a small post-mining emissions component to mining emissions.
The 2006 projection series has also been aligned with new actual data for 2005, which has resulted
in an emissions increase of 0.4 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period.
The most recent NGGI also includes an updated methodology for calculating the rate of emissions
from decommissioned mines, in particular it now incorporates the effect of mine flooding. A revised
projection has been undertaken using this new methodology, which has resulted in an emissions
reduction of 0.3 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period.
iv EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Compared with the 2006 projection, emissions in the Oil and Gas sector are now projected to be
0.6 Mt CO2-e higher per year over the Kyoto period.
Gas distribution network loss rates have been updated to reflect new ESAA (Energy Supply
Association of Australia Ltd) data, resulting in an increase of 0.9 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period.
The Gorgon LNG project will now commence in 2013, as opposed to 2011 in the 2006 “With
Measures” projection. This means the Gorgon project is not expected to be operational within the
Kyoto period. The associated emissions reduction of 0.7 Mt CO2-e is offset by a consequent
reduction in geosequestration abatement of 0.5 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period, resulting in
a net reduction of 0.2 Mt CO2-e.
In the Low scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 35.2 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (21.1 per cent above the 1990 level) and 43.9 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (50.8 per cent above the 1990 level).
EXECUTIVE v
SUMMARY
Contents 1
1 Introduction 3
1.1 Scope of the 2007 Projection 3
1.2 Key Drivers and Historical Trends 4
1.3 Projections Methodology 6
6 References 34
CHAPTER 1 1
Tables
Table ES 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Fugitive Sector i
Table 1.1 Fugitive Emission Trends, 1990 to 2005 6
Table 2.1 Coal Fugitive Emissions Projections to 2020 12
Table 2.2 Projected Abatement from Coal Sector Measures (Mt CO2-e) 16
Table 3.1 Fugitive Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sector 21
Table 3.2 Projected Natural Gas Production 21
Table 3.3 Projected Abatement, Oil and Gas Sector Measures (Mt CO2-e) 27
2 CHAPTER 1
The 2007 Fugitive sector emissions projection is a minor update of the 2006 projection. The update reflects
new information from the DCC and other sources relating to coal production and emissions, timing of oil and
gas projects, intensity of gas supply and measures i the of the ncluding the recently announced Australian
Coal Mine Methane Reduction Programme (ACMMRP).
Chapter 1 provides an introduction by explaining the coverage of the Fugitive sector, projection
methodologies used, historical trends and key drivers of Australian Fugitive emissions. Chapter 2 presents
detailed projections for the Coal sector, while Chapter 3 reports results from the Oil and Gas sector. Chapter
4 presents total greenhouse gas emissions projections for the Fugitive sector.
The Fugitive energy sector covers emissions of greenhouse gases that are associated with the production,
processing, transport, storage, transmission and distribution of fossil fuels such as black coal, oil and natural
gas. The Fugitive sector does not include emissions arising from the combustion of fuel for energy purposes,
which is accounted for in the Stationary Energy sector. Nor does the Fugitive energy sector include
emissions from the decomposition of organic waste in landfills, as these emissions are accounted for in the
Waste sector.
The greenhouse gases covered in the Fugitive projections are methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and
nitrous oxide (N2O) (see IPCC guidelines). The individual and combined impact of the greenhouse gases are
expressed in terms of CO2-equivalence (CO2-e), where the impact of each gas is converted to CO2-e
according to its Global Warming Potential (GWP).The National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) also
includes emissions from decommissioned (“abandoned”) underground mines, using an approach developed
in the 2006 IPCC Review of National Inventory Reporting Guidelines. Emissions from coal mine spoil
heaps, open cut overburden, washery tailings dams and spontaneous combustion of coal heaps are not
estimated in the NGGI. Although these may be significant sources of Fugitive emissions, they are not
estimated due to the lack of an internationally agreed inventory methodologies.
In understanding Fugitive emissions, it is important to distinguish between Coal Seam Methane (CSM) and
Waste Coal Mine Methane (WCMM). WCMM refers to methane released as a by-product of the mining of
CHAPTER 1 3
WCMM emissions are covered under the Coal sector of Fugitive emissions, while the emissions associated
with CSM extraction and processing are covered under the Oil & Gas Sector. However this distinction is
becoming increasingly difficult, with coal mining-related fugitive methane being increasingly harnessed at
some sites for commercial purposes, including energy generation.
The distinction used in this paper is as follows: if methane is generated primarily as a by-product of coal-
mining then it is WCMM. The capture of such methane is a Fugitive abatement. If that methane is simply
flared, converting it to CO2 (and thus reducing its Global Warming Potential), that flaring is also a Fugitive
abatement.
On the other hand, if methane is extracted from a coal seam primarily for the purpose of being harnessed as a
fossil fuel in its own right, then it is CSM and its capture and combustion are not a Fugitive abatement.
However any activities designed to reduce methane leakage or venting during the CSM extraction process do
constitute Fugitive abatement, under the Fugitive Oil and Gas sector.
Moves to exploit coal mine methane as CSM are expected to increase, as this addresses greenhouse concerns
and may enhance the commercial profitability of a site, although current regulatory regimes are state-based
and differ between Queensland and New South Wales.
From 2006, the same methodology has also incorporated site-specific reporting of production-related
emissions from coal mining companies. This enables site-specific emission behaviour to be incorporated into
Fugitive emissions calculations.
The future level of Fugitive emissions will be determined in part by the total production of black coal, oil
and natural gas, but more importantly by the emissions intensity of that production. Emission intensity varies
greatly between particular coal, oil and natural gas deposits of different characteristics, so that the level of
emissions is more affected by whether or not particular deposits with high emission characteristics are
exploited. Underground mining of black coal from Class A (“gassy”) mines accounted for 43 per cent of
coal-related emissions in 2005 (29 per cent of total sector emissions) but only 12 per cent of all black coal
mined. The combination of Class A and Class B (less “gassy”) underground mines produce 37 per cent of all
Fugitive emissions. In the case of natural gas, production from a minority of gas fields that have high gas
reservoir concentrations of CO2 is the predominant source of Fugitive emissions.
4 CHAPTER 1
Production levels are driven by both domestic and export demand, which are in turn influenced by factors
such as domestic and world economic growth, relative fuel prices and fuel substitutability in the various end-
use markets, as well as energy policy settings in each country. All of these factors have a high degree of
inherent uncertainty, although strong market signals can be discerned. The obvious signals from export
markets are the commodities boom, with extremely strong demand from China for thermal coal and coking
coal for steel production, and the current global oil “shock”, with high prices per barrel crude oil and demand
for alternative fuel supplies to augment oil supply.
O pen Cu t M ines
Underg round Mines
Venting 13% 37% Dec om m is s ioned M ine s
(C las s A and B )
O il
V enting
O il 2%
F laring
D ec om m is s ioned Min es
5% O pen C u t Mines 24%
G as Dis t ribution
P os t-Min ing 2%
From 1990 to 2005, total black coal production has increased by 104 per cent, from 188 Mt in 1990 to
383 Mt in 2005. However, the proportion of black coal production coming from underground mines has
declined, from 30 per cent in 1990 to 23 per cent in 2005, with a shift away from the earlier dominance of
Class A “gassy” mines in underground production. The contribution from open-cut mining has increased
correspondingly, from 70 per cent in 1990 to 77 per cent in 2005. This has translated into a net increase of
CHAPTER 1 5
Oil and gas emissions have fallen by 19 per cent, from 13.0 Mt CO2-e in 1990 to 10.5 Mt CO2-e in 2005,
despite production having increased by 29 per cent over the same period, from 2073 PJ in 1990 to 2673 PJ in
2005 (2005 NGGI (updated)). This reduction in emissions, relative to production levels, is mainly
attributable to significantly reduced leakage from gas distribution systems, including complete re-lining of
older parts of the Sydney gas system in the early 1990s and equivalent section by section upgrades in other
major systems, such as Melbourne and Adelaide.
6 CHAPTER 1
38
25
13
0
19 90 1 993 199 6 199 9 20 02 2 005
O il Y e ar Ve nting
F la rin g G as
Bla ck C oal T o tal F ugitiv e Emis sions
In 2006 the Australian Greenhouse Office commissioned Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd to present a current
perspective of black coal production in Australia, and project production estimates to 2020 and beyond, with
a view to DCC estimation of mining-related methane emissions. The consequent view of Australia’s current
global position and projected future activity as a coal-producing country is derived from the Barlow Jonker
2006 analysis, and is contingent on assumptions of global economic growth, Australian legislative
assumptions, the maintenance of competitiveness of Australian supply and coal as a fuel source, and absence
of a carbon price.
CHAPTER 1 7
Future black coal production figures for existing and proposed mines were estimated by Barlow Jonker Pty
Ltd on a site-specific bottom-up basis, in reply to estimated top-down global demand, demand by market and
demand by country. In the case of thermal coal, export demand for Australian coal by other countries was
estimated on a power station-specific basis. The black coal production figures used in 2006 for Coal sector
projections have been retained as the basis for the 2007 projections.
A key issue in forecasting future emissions from coal mines is to estimate the gassiness of future
underground mines that are planned but have not as yet been completed or commissioned. In 2006, the AGO
commissioned Energy Strategies Pty Ltd and the CSIRO to gauge their probable future gassiness (Class A or
B) where possible, based on company feedback and scientific estimation. Where these estimates could be
obtained, this was combined with the Barlow Jonker production data to project these sites’ future emissions.
Where such estimates were impossible, the probable total future populations of Class A and B mines was
obtained by dividing the remaining “underground, unknown class” minesites between these classes
according to existing ratios.
As of 2006, the NGGI now also estimates emissions from decommissioned (“abandoned”) underground
mines, using an approach newly developed in the 2006 IPCC Review of National Inventory Reporting
Guidelines. The decline of emissions following mine closure is modelled using the application of an
emission decay curve (EDC), a negative exponential curve with its initial condition taken from the average
of mine emissions from the last years of the mine’s operation. Emissions from a decommissioned mine are
further attenuated by natural flooding from the water-table, with a fully-flooded mine yielding zero
emissions. A distinction is therefore made between “dry” and “wet” decommissioned mines.
Brown coal mines are assumed to have zero methane emissions, due to the nature of the coal being
excavated.
The 2007 Oil and gas emissions projection draws heavily on a bottom-up model of the Australian Oil and
Gas sector developed by Energy Strategies Pty Ltd in 2006. The significant changes made for the 2007 Oil
and Gas projection apply to gas distribution network loss rates and project start dates, to reflect the latest
5 For operating black coal mines, production-related methane emissions are estimated by the NGGI through linear formulae
associating methane emission with Run-of-Mine (ROM) black coal production. Saleable production from a mine is always less
than or equal to ROM production. All production figures throughout this report will be the ROM figures, not saleable production,
unless otherwise stipulated.
8 CHAPTER 1
The projections methodology uses, as the main source of emissions data for these activities, an annual survey
conducted by the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) amongst its oil
and gas-producing members. The APPEA data are supplemented by data from a variety of other sources for
those emission sources unrelated to oil and gas production, including gas transmission, gas distribution and
oil refinery flaring.
For projection purposes, individual oil and gas fields or basins are identified, particularly those with
characteristics that may result in high levels of emissions, and relationships between emissions and
production at this level are developed. Total demand for natural gas is informed by the Stationary Energy
projections and allocated among the various fields, on the basis of known project commitments and informed
professional judgement for the more remote time periods.
The bottom-up modelling approach has important advantages for determining Fugitive emissions from the
Oil and Gas sector, which are “lumpy” in the sense of being sourced from a relatively small number of large
emitters. These individual projects have a significant impact on the overall sectoral emissions. Hence it is
important to assess individual projects in detail; it is also practical because of their relatively small number.
Bottom-up modelling also makes it possible to assess the sensitivity of sectoral emissions to such factors as:
Site-specific emission factors such as the gassiness of individual coal mines or natural gas fields.
Projected emission curves estimated by Energy Strategies in 2006 for gas projects were adjusted to reflect
new information about timing and gas distribution network losses.
Historically there have been three separate national greenhouse measures resulting in actions to reduce
Fugitive emissions. These are the Greenhouse Challenge Programme (GCP), the Greenhouse Friendly
Programme (GFP) and the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Programme (GGAP). The Greenhouse Challenge and
Greenhouse Friendly programmes are grouped together under the Greenhouse Challenge Plus programme
(GC+). The 2007 fugitive emissions projection also includes abatement from the Australian Coal Mine
Methane Reduction Programme (ACMMRP) announced this year. Abatement is estimated on a project
basis, drawing on data reported to the DCC. Emissions are projected both with and without the effect of such
projects; the former constitutes a “With Measures” projection, while the latter constitutes a “Business as
Usual” (BAU) projection.
CHAPTER 1 9
Separate “Best”, “High” and “Low” projections were prepared for emissions from coal mining and from oil
and gas, using plausible ranges of assumptions about key parameters.
There is significant uncertainty surrounding baseline emission factors for coal mining and the CO2
concentration of oil and gas fields. Comprehensive information on these factors is not always publicly
available. Generally, the baseline emission factors used are derived from studies covering a limited number
of coal mines and oil/gas fields and the results extrapolated to other mines and fields with comparable
geographical locations and mining/processing operations.
Units
The principal quantity presented in this report is greenhouse gas emissions per annum, expressed in terms of
megatonne carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e).
10 CHAPTER 1
Figure 2.1 Historical and Projected Fugitive Emissions from Black Coal Production
45
40 BAU
WM High
35
WM Best
30
WM Low
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Source: DCC analysis 2008, Barlow Jonker 2006/Energy Strategies 2006 data.
Fugitive emissions in 2005 from the Coal sector were 21.8 Mt CO2-e, which was approximately 35 per cent
above the 1990 emissions of 16.1 Mt CO2-e.
The best estimate “With Measures” projection is for 24.8 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period
(54 per cent above the 1990 level) and 29.6 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (84 per cent above the 1990 level). In the
absence of measures, the BAU projection is for 31.4 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period (95
per cent above the 1990 level) and 36.0 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (123 per cent above the 1990 level).
In the High scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 26.4 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (64 per cent above the 1990 level) and 36.5 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (126 per cent above the 1990 level).
CHAPTER 3 11
It should be noted that recalculation of the 1990 base year in the most recent NGGI resulted in a reduction in
emissions from 17.1 Mt CO2-e to 16.1 Mt CO2-e due to the inclusion of site-specific emission factors and
methodology for decommissioned mine flooding. This has the effect of inflating emissions growth when
compared with last year's projection.
For example, the “With Measures” projection is for 24.8 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period,
which is 54 per cent above the most recent NGGI 1990 emissions level of 16.1 Mt CO2-e. If we compare
the “With Measures” projection of 24.8 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period instead to the
previous NGGI 1990 emissions level of 17.1 Mt CO2-e, the increase is 45 per cent.
Source: DCC analysis 2008, Barlow Jonker 2006/Energy Strategies 2006 data.
Figures in table are rounded.
Australia dominates global supply of metallurgical coal, with a market share approaching 60%. In the case
of global supply of thermal coal, Australia’s share is slightly in excess of 20%. In 2005, Australian
production of black coal totalled 383 Mt, of which approximately 80 per cent was exported and 20 per cent
was consumed domestically. Over 95 per cent of Australian coal production in 2005 arose in NSW and Qld,
with mines in SA, Tasmania and WA contributing in the order of 3% of national production.
From 1990 to 2005, the percentage of total coal production coming from emission intensive Class A mines
has dropped from 18 per cent to 10 per cent, while the percentage coming from Class B (less “gassy”)
underground mines has remained stable at 13 per cent. The remainder was taken up by an increase in less
emissive open-cut mining, which increased its share over the period from 70 per cent in 1990 to 77 per cent
in 2005.
12 CHAPTER 3
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Estimated Class A Estimated Class B Open-Cut Total Production
Since 1990, this change in the composition of mines by class (illustrated in Figure 2.3) has been due to a
number of factors:
Older underground operations have closed due to equipment age, manning levels and resource
depletion;
New open-cut operations, being less capital-intensive than their underground counterparts, have
increasingly come on-stream, while older open-cut projects have been delved deeper as equipment
size has increased;
In Queensland, new open-cut operations will be developed in the Surat Basin, while in the Bowen
Basin open-cut operations are becoming deeper. Meanwhile in New South Wales, open-cut mineable
resources are declining in the Hunter Valley.
CHAPTER 3 13
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Source: DCC analysis 2008, Barlow Jonker 2006 production data and CSIRO estimation of class of future sites 2006.
A key aspect of projecting emissions over the Kyoto period is to estimate emissions from future
underground mines that are as yet formally unclassified by gas content. Analysis conducted for the AGO in
2006 by Energy Strategies Pty Ltd and the CSIRO assigned classifications to most known projects expected
to 2020. The remaining population of underground mine sites of unknown class was then classified based on
the current ratio of Class A and B mines in Queensland and New South Wales.
Figure 2.2 illustrates the projected response to the international commodities boom, with Australian black
coal production forecast to grow strongly to 2010 before moderating in the period between 2010 and 2020.
Total Australian black coal production is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 per cent
over the period 2005 to 2010, to reach a level 165 per cent higher than the 1990 production level.
For the period 2010 to 2020, growth in Australian coal production is projected to slow to 0.7 per cent
per annum, reaching 183 per cent of 1990 production levels by 2020. This moderation in forecast
14 CHAPTER 3
All classes of mines show strong increases in production to 2010 in response to the commodities boom,
however in absolute terms, open-cut mines provide the overwhelming bulk of additional production due to
their dominant share.
Black coal output is forecast to grow 30 per cent between 2005 and 2010, with over 70 per cent of
this growth forecast to come from open cut mines.
The relative contributions of Class A and Class B mines are also demonstrated in Figure 2.2, which displays
the relative decline in contribution from Class A mines since 1990.
The Greenhouse Challenge Plus Programme, Greenhouse Gas Abatement Programme (GGAP) and the
Australian Coal Mine Methane Reduction Programme (ACMMRP) include a number of projects that reduce
Fugitive emissions from coal mining. Abatement of Fugitive emissions from coal mining involves capturing
the waste coal mine methane (WCMM), for flaring, generating electricity on-site or piping for offsite power-
generation.
Flaring of WCMM mostly converts it to CO2. This significantly reduces the global warming potential of
the released gas.
Utilising the WCMM to generate electricity likewise mostly converts it to CO2. WCMM used in this way
also reduces emissions further by replacing other forms of electricity, although these benefits are
included under the Stationary Energy projection.
Queensland and New South Wales have differing regulatory regimes concerning the use of WCMM for
power generation, hence the commercial parameters for WCMM capture differ between states. Furthermore,
WCMM capture is only practicable for underground mines of sufficient gassiness. Figure 2.6 and Table 2.2
shows projected abatement attributable to the various programmes.
CHAPTER 3 15
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Table 2.2 Projected Abatement from Coal Sector Measures (Mt CO2-e)
Programme 2005 Kyoto period average 2020
Source: DCC analysis 2008, Barlow Jonker 2006/Energy Strategies 2006 data.
Variability is determined by market demand, the mine capacity (projected based on the site’s known capacity
and/or any proposed site projects or enhancements) and cluster capacity, i.e. the overall capacity of the
“cluster” of relevant mines, including the mine site under consideration, around a railway line to a port.
16 CHAPTER 3
For the purposes of emissions calculations, relevant black coal production is almost entirely confined to
Queensland and New South Wales. Figure 2.5 shows that black coal production from these states is
approaching full capacity, and is expected to remain so until 2020. In addition, possible high scenario
increases in effective production are also limited by port capacity on the Eastern seaboard. The rate at which
coal can be shipped through Australian ports currently imposes a significant constraint on export production
of coal from mine clusters, although this is expected to be relaxed in the longer term as port expansions are
completed.
Figure 2.5 Black Coal Production from Qld and NSW, High and Low Scenarios
550
High Production
530 "Best" Scenario
Low Production
510
490
470
450
430
410
390
370
350
2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
For the Low production scenario, plausible delays in projects’ start-up or expansion schedules were inserted
where appropriate, taking into account port capacity expansion plans and rail capacity, with the results for
Queensland and New South Wales also evident in Figure 2.5.
High and Low emission scenarios were calculated by the DCC by combining these production scenarios with
the other major source of emissions uncertainty, namely the methane content of future underground mines of
unknown class, which grows increasingly significant towards 2020. While the “Best” WM projection
assigned classifications based on the current ratio of Class A and B mines in Queensland and New South
CHAPTER 3 17
A reduction of 2.2 Mt CO2-e from a more widespread use of specific emission factors for individual
coal mines. The most recent NGGI includes some additional site-specific emission factors for
several major underground mines. Using these specific emission factors in place of the default Class
A and Class B emission factors which were used in previous inventories and the 2006 projection can
make a significant difference to the projection.
o Some “gassy” Class A mines have become even more gassy as a result of using the more
precise specific emission factors, while other have become less “gassy”. Some less “gassy”
Class B mines have also become significantly more “gassy” as a result of the change.
o The NGGI includes mines that have recently been reclassified from Class B to Class A. The
site-specific emission factors for these particular mines have not changed, however their
mining emissions levels are now considered to be within the range of Class A emissions.
Class B mines are not considered to contribute to post-mining emissions, whereas Class A
mines do. Hence, reclassification of a mine from Class B to Class A requires addition of a
small post-mining emissions component to mining emissions.
The 2006 projection series has also been aligned with new actual data for 2005, which has resulted
in an emissions increase of 0.4 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period.
The most recent NGGI also includes an updated methodology for calculating the rate of emissions
from decommissioned mines, in particular it now incorporates the effect of mine flooding. A revised
projection has been undertaken using this new methodology, which has resulted in an emissions
reduction of 0.3 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period.
Estimated abatement per year over the Kyoto period for the Coal sector of 6.6 Mt CO2-e is 0.3 Mt CO2-e
higher than the 2006 estimate, due to introduction of the Australian Coal Mine Methane Reduction
Programme (ACMMRP), which will further help to reduce emissions from underground coal mines.
18 CHAPTER 3
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
CHAPTER 3 19
A summary of the 2007 projections for the Oil and Gas sector is presented in Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1.
30
BAU
25
WM High
WM Best
20
WM Low
15
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Fugitive emissions in 2005 from the Oil and Gas sector were 10.5 Mt CO2-e, which was approximately 19
per cent below the 1990 emissions of 13.0 Mt CO2-e.
The best estimate “With Measures” projection is for 12.0 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period
(8 per cent below the 1990 level) and 22.4 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (72 per cent above the 1990 level). In the
absence of measures, the BAU projection is for 13.8 Mt CO2-e emissions per year over the Kyoto period and
25.8 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (99 per cent above the 1990 level).
20 CHAPTER 3
Emissions from natural gas projects are site-specific, depending on the CO2 content of the particular gas field
and the technologies in place to reduce emissions during gas processing. Consequently gas-related emissions
fluctuate, depending on field characteristics and the proportion of activity from each field, rather than on
total production.
Projections for oil-related Fugitive emissions are not directly calculated from a production curve, but are
instead projected from existing emissions data, and include flaring from crude oil refining and storage.
Overall natural gas production is projected to increase by 214% over the period 1990 to 2010, that is, to
grow from 797 PJ in 1990 to about 2504 PJ in 2010 in the best estimate scenario. Subsequently growth is
projected to continue from 2010 to 2020, reaching 6024 PJ in 2020 (see Figure 3.2 and Table 3.2). The steep
increases in production in this post-Kyoto period assume Pluto gas project will ramp up after it comes online
in 2011 and the Gorgon and Browse gas projects will come online in 2013.
CHAPTER 3 21
7000
6000
5000
1000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Domestic market
Natural gas production for the domestic market (DM) has grown steadily at an approximate rate of 3.3% pa
from 672 PJ in 1990 to 1097 PJ in 2005, and is projected to continue at a similar rate in the best estimate
scenario over the period 2002 to 2020.
For the period to 2020, domestic demand in southern and eastern Australia is assumed to be supplied from
gas fields in the region, including coal seam methane. Other key assumptions are:
Although fields in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin will continue to produce up to 2020, production will fall
over 2006-2008, finally stabilising at about half the pre-2002 production levels;
Known smaller fields with high CO2 content, i.e. Yolla (BassGas), Thylacine/Geographe (Otway Gas)
and Kipper, located respectively in the Bass, Otway and Gippsland Basins, are assumed to produce at
their agreed contract levels in all scenarios;
All other supply, irrespective of the level of demand, is assumed to come from existing and new gas
fields which have levels of CO2 in raw gas low enough not to require stripping and venting to achieve
pipeline quality specifications.
Domestic demand in Western and Northern Australia is assumed to be supplied by local regional production
which also supplies the much larger export LNG market (see below). This is assumed to be supplied from
22 CHAPTER 3
LNG
By comparison with the domestic market, export LNG production has grown rapidly, from a low base of
about 125 PJ in 1990 to 656 PJ in 2005. It is projected to grow even more rapidly with North West Shelf and
Bayu-Undan developments and surge in production post-2010, with Gorgon, Pluto, Browse and Greater
Sunrise developments contributing to a 2020 estimate of 6024 PJ.
Although emissions in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) are to be deemed divided between
East Timor and Australia, it is as yet unclear what proportion of gas processing will occur on the Greater
Sunrise platform(s) and what proportion will occur onshore in Australia. Consequently it is assumed for the
purposes of projections that all emissions related to the Greater Sunrise project will occur onshore and be
ascribed entirely to Australia.
Uncertainty regarding LNG production volumes and the timing of new projects arises because of uncertainty
in the international market for LNG, and uncertainty about the global investment plans and priorities of the
international petroleum majors which are majority shareholders in all of the potential new LNG projects.
The major contributors to Fugitive emissions in the Oil and Gas sector are natural gas-related venting of CO2
and venting or flaring of methane, followed by natural gas distribution (see Figure 3.3). As that diagram
shows, the transmission component of natural gas transmission and distribution is by far the lesser
contributor to the emissions from that category, while the Fugitive emissions from oil are not shown, as they
are approximately an order of magnitude less than the main contributors from natural gas (see Figure 3.4).
CO2 venting
Venting of CO2 is the largest source of Fugitive emissions in the Oil and Gas sector with emissions
determined by:
CHAPTER 3 23
Whether the gas is for the domestic market (DM) or export LNG requiring a lower CO2 content;
Whether or not the removed CO2 is vented or captured and reinjected or otherwise geosequestered.
Methane venting
Some emissions of vented methane occur in association with CO2 venting. Other relatively minor methane
emissions also occur in gas processing. In both cases, technology improvements are expected to continue the
trend in reducing methane emissions in relation to production.
Emissions from this source have declined significantly since 2000, with the largest emission reductions
coming from two specific abatement measures described in Section 3.3 below.
Flaring
Small quantities of hydrocarbons are flared at oil and gas production and processing facilities as a part of
safe process control. Larger quantities are currently flared at a limited number of offshore oil fields in WA
as the most economically viable option. The projections assume that these fields have a relatively short
production life and that the WA Government is unlikely to licence similar flaring entitlements for future
fields of this type. Consequently, significant further reductions in emissions from this source are projected
within the next few years. In addition, the anticipated reduction in Australian crude oil production between
now and 2020 will result in further flaring reductions.
The NGGI and projections methodology assumes that natural gas leakage, resulting in fugitive emissions of
methane, together with small amounts of CO2, is a constant fraction, set at 50% of unaccounted for gas
(UAG).
Despite limited recent data, oil refinery flaring has shown a downward historic trend reflecting process
improvements in Australia’s oil refineries. Current projections assume that this source of emissions will
continue to trend downwards initially and then stay roughly constant.
While this category of emissions covers a number of different sources, the two most important are flaring in
association with oil and gas exploration and leakage from gas transmission pipeline systems.
24 CHAPTER 3
Of the contributors to Fugitive emissions discussed under BAU activities, the ones most appropriate for
abatement measures are natural gas-related venting and flaring, and reduced leaks in distribution.
A number of measures implemented under the Greenhouse Challenge Plus programme have reduced
emissions of vented methane:
Under the Greenhouse Challenge Program at Woodside’s North West Shelf plant, some of the methane
mixed with CO2 is separated by flashing from the solvent mixture in plant furnaces.
Under the Greenhouse Friendly Program, previously vented emissions from gas production at the
Yellowbank natural gas facility (Queensland) are flared. The abatement contributes to the credits used by
BP to offset emissions associated with the use of “BP Ultimate” fuel.
CHAPTER 3 25
14,000
Venting
12,000
10,000 Flaring
8,000
Gas Distribution
6,000
Gas
4,000 Transmission &
Distribution
Total Oil &
2,000 Natural Gas
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Figure 3.4 Minor Contributors to NGGI Oil & Gas Fugitive Emissions
600
Oil Exploration
500
Oil Production
400
Oil Transport
300
Oil Refining &
Storage
200
Gas Production &
Processing
100
Gas Transmission
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Other measures undertaken by Greenhouse Challenge participant companies have involved reinjecting
methane that would otherwise have been flared at offshore oil production facilities, and reducing the
26 CHAPTER 3
Table 3.3 shows projected abatement attributable to the various programs. The best “With Measures”
estimate scenario includes the Gorgon LNG project proceeding with geosequestration of stripped CO2 and
assumes its gas is sourced in equal proportions from the Gorgon fields and Jansz gas field further offshore.
Overall measures are estimated to reduce Fugitive emissions in the Oil and Gas sector by 1.9 Mt CO2-e per
year over the Kyoto period, increasing to 3.5 Mt CO2-e in 2020 with Gorgon coming online, although the
rest of the Challenge contribution drops due to some projects ending (see Figure 3.5).
Figure 3.5 Total Oil & Gas Fugitive Abatement from Measures
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Gorgon Geosequestration Total Oil & Gas Measures
Non-Gorgon Challenge Plus Projects
Table 3.3 Projected Abatement, Oil and Gas Sector Measures (Mt CO2-e)
CHAPTER 3 27
In the High scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 13.2 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (2 per cent below the 1990 level) and 23.5 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (81 per cent above the 1990 level).
The start date for Greater Sunrise being brought forward from 2016 to 2013, with all consequent
emissions attributed to Australia;
The Cooper Eromanga venting rate being increased from its current intensity of 12.8 kt/PJ to
18.9 kt/PJ by 2009, while its production is taken to be that of the MMA High demand scenario,
consistent with the Stationary Energy projection.
In the Low scenario, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be 10.9 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period (16 per cent below the 1990 level) and 18.4 Mt CO2-e in 2020 (42 per cent above the 1990 level).
Commencement of the Pluto project being pushed back from 2010 to 2013;
Commencement of the Browse project being pushed back from 2013 to 2015;
Cooper-Eromanga venting rate falling from its current intensity of 12.8 kt/PJ to 8.7 kt/PJ by 2009,
while its production is taken to be that of the MMA Low demand scenario, consistent with
Stationary Energy projection.
In the case of both High and Low scenarios, the effects of changing the timing, scale or emissions of the
specified projects was calculated by the Australian Greenhouse Office using the framework established by
Energy Strategies in 2006. The resulting time-series of data were then re-scaled in the same way as the
“Best” scenario, to deliver a consistent spread of data.
28 CHAPTER 3
Table 3.4 Comparison of Oil & Gas Fugitive Emissions Projections 2006-2007
Year
Compared with the 2006 projection, emissions in the Oil and Gas sector are now projected to be
0.6 Mt CO2-e higher per year over the Kyoto period.
Gas distribution network loss rates have been updated to reflect new ESAA (Energy Supply
Association of Australia Ltd) data, resulting in an increase of 0.9 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto
period.
The Gorgon LNG project will now commence in 2013, as opposed to 2011 in the 2006 “With
Measures” projection. This means the Gorgon project is not expected to be operational within the
Kyoto period. The associated emissions reduction of 0.7 Mt CO2-e is offset by a consequent
reduction in geosequestration abatement of 0.5 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period, resulting in
a net reduction of 0.2 Mt CO2-e.
CHAPTER 3 29
The “Business as Usual” projection is for emissions of 45.2 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period and
61.8 Mt CO2-e in 2020.
The impact of greenhouse response measures is estimated to be 8.5 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period
and is estimated to increase to 9.8 Mt CO2-e by 2020.
Abatement is primarily achieved through the Greenhouse Challenge Plus programme and the Greenhouse
Gas Abatement Programme (GGAP). These programmes include a number of projects that reduce Fugitive
emissions from coal mining, oil refining and gas production. Abatement of Fugitive emissions from coal
mining involves capturing the methane waste coal mine methane (WCMM), for flaring, generating
electricity on-site or piping for offsite power-generation, while abatement from oil and natural gas is
achieved by reducing natural gas-related venting and flaring, and reducing leaks in distribution. From 2013,
Gorgon’s geosequestration project is expected to come online in the “Best” scenario.
12
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2 02 0
Year
T o ta l M e a s u re s
C o a l M e a s u re s
O il & G a s M e a s u re s
G o rg o n G e o s e q u e s tra tio n
N o n -G o rg o n G re e n h o u s e C h a lle n g e P lu s
30 CHAPTER 4
Compared with the previous projection, “With Measures” emissions are projected to be
1.7 Mt CO2-e lower per year over the Kyoto period. This result is derived from:
Introduction of the Australian Coal Mine Methane Reduction Programme (ACMMRP) to reduce the
projected level of emissions by 0.3 Mt CO2-e per year over the Kyoto period.
A increase in Oil and Gas sector emissions of 0.6 Mt CO2-e due to an increase in projected gas
distribution network loss rates, offset by an expected delay in some Oil and gas production.
CHAPTER 4 31
FY Financial Year
PJ Petajoules
ROM Run-of-Mine
WM With Measures
SE Stationary Energy
Explanations
Abatement Refers to emissions reductions made beyond that which would have been achieved
in the business as usual scenario. Also referred to as beyond BAU abatement.
Business as usual Refers to a projection that incorporates changes in activity levels and greenhouse
gas emission factors, but with the exclusion of any effects that are directly
attributable to greenhouse policy measures. Also referred to as without measures
or Baseline.
Kyoto period Refers to the first quantified emission limitation and reduction commitment period
of the Kyoto Protocol, from 2008-2012.
With measures Refers to the “reality” or “best-estimate” of future emission levels. This is also
equivalent to the net emissions from reducing the BAU by the greenhouse gas
abatement that is directly attributed to the greenhouse policy measures.
Best estimate A “best estimate” scenario adopts all most likely assumptions and modelling
parameters.
High emissions A “high emissions” scenario adopts plausible high emission assumptions.
Low emissions A “low emissions” scenario adopts plausible low emission assumptions.
ABBREVIATIONS AND 33
EXPLANATIONS
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6 References
Australian Greenhouse Office, Australian Methodology for the Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks 2003: Energy (Fugitive Fuel Emissions), Commonwealth Government, 2005.
Department of Climate Change, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2005 (revised), Commonwealth
Government, 2008.
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd, Australian Coal Forecast & Resource Estimation, unpublished report prepared for
the Australian Government Department of Environment and Heritage, May 2006.
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd, Explanation of High and Low Case Production Scenarios, unpublished report
prepared for the Australian Government Department of Environment and Heritage, September 2006.
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd, Explanation of Supplementary Data, unpublished report prepared for the Australian
Government Department of Environment and Heritage, September 2006.
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd, Flaring & Power Generation of Methane in Coal Mine Pre- and Post-Drainage and
Mine Ventilation Air Flows, unpublished report prepared for the Australian Government Department of
Environment and Heritage, September 2006.
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd, Overview of Extraction and Utilisation of Methane from Coal Mines in Australia,
unpublished report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Environment and Heritage,
September 2006.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Williams D.J., Carras J.N, Saghafi A.,
Lange A. and Thomson C.J.; Francey R.J., Steele L.P., Langenfelds R.L. and Fraser P.J), Measurement of
the Fluxes and Isotopic Composition of Methane Emissions – Project 1460, Commonwealth Government,
August 1992.
Energy Strategies Pty Ltd, Emissions Abatement Projects at Existing Underground Coal Mines, unpublished
report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Environment and Heritage, September 2006.
Energy Strategies Pty Ltd, Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Venting at Major New Gas
Projects, 2005-20, unpublished report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Environment
and Heritage, August 2005.
Energy Strategies Pty Ltd, Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Venting at Major New Gas
Projects, 2006-20, unpublished report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Environment
and Heritage, August 2006.
Other sources include provision of data and spreadsheets from the CSIRO, Energy Strategies Pty Ltd and
Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd.
34 REFERENCES