Hydropower

Hydrologic Cycle

2 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_how.html

Hydropower to Electric Power

Potential Energy

Electrical Energy Electricity

Kinetic Energy

Mechanical Energy
3

Hydropower in Context

Sources of Electric Power US

Renewable Energy Sources

6 Wisconsin Valley Improvement Company, http://www.wvic.com/hydro-facts.htm

World Trends in Hydropower

7 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

World hydro production

8 IEA.org

Major Hydropower Producers

Worlds Largest Dams

Name Country China Brazil/Paraguay Venezuela United States Russia Canada Canada Romania/Serbia Year 2009 1983 1986 1942/80 1983 1981 1971 1970 Max Generation 18,200 MW 12,600 MW 10,200 MW 6,809 MW 6,400 MW 5,616 MW 5,429 MW 2,280 MW 35 TW-hrs 11.3 TW-hrs 93.4 TW-hrs 46 TW-hrs 22.6 TW-hrs Annual Production

Three Gorges Itaip Guri Grand Coulee Sayano Shushenskaya Robert-Bourassa Churchill Falls Iron Gates

Ranked by maximum power.

10 Hydroelectricity, Wikipedia.org

Three Gorges Dam (China)

11

Three Gorges Dam Location Map

12

Itaip Dam (Brazil & Paraguay)

13 Itaipu, Wikipedia.org

Itaip Dam Site Map

14 http://www.kented.org.uk/ngfl/subjects/geography/rivers/River%20Articles/itaipudam.htm

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

15 http://www.infodestinations.com/venezuela/espanol/puerto_ordaz/index.shtml

Guri Dam Site Map

16 http://lmhwww.epfl.ch/Services/ReferenceList/2000_fichiers/gurimap.htm

Grand Coulee Dam (US)

17
www.swehs.co.uk/ docs/coulee.html

Grand Coulee Dam Site Map

18

Grand Coulee Dam Statistics

Generators at Grand Coulee Dam
Location Description Number Capacity (MW) Total (MW)

Pumping Plant Left Powerhouse

Pump/Generator Station Service Generator Main Generator

6 3 9 9 3 3 33

50 10 125 125 600 700

300 30 1125 1125 1800 2100 6480

19

Right Powerhouse Third Powerhouse

Main Generator Main Generator Main Generator

Totals

Uses of Dams US

20 Wisconsin Valley Improvement Company, http://www.wvic.com/hydro-facts.htm

Hydropower Production by US State

21 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Percent Hydropower by US State

22 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

History of Hydro Power

23

Early Irrigation Waterwheel

24 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Early Roman Water Mill

25 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Early Norse Water Mill

26 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Fourneyrons Turbine

27 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Hydropower Design

28

Terminology (Jargon)

Head

Water must fall from a higher elevation to a lower one to release its stored energy. The difference between these elevations (the water levels in the forebay and the tailbay) is called head high-head (800 or more feet) medium-head (100 to 800 feet) low-head (less than 100 feet)

Dams: three categories

Power is proportional to the product of head x flow

29

http://www.wapa.gov/crsp/info/harhydro.htm

Scale of Hydropower Projects

Large-hydro

More than 100 MW feeding into a large electricity grid 15 - 100 MW usually feeding a grid 1 - 15 MW - usually feeding into a grid Above 100 kW, but below 1 MW Either stand alone schemes or more often feeding into the grid From 5kW up to 100 kW Usually provided power for a small community or rural industry in remote areas away from the grid. From a few hundred watts up to 5kW Remote areas away from the grid.

Medium-hydro Small-hydro Mini-hydro Micro-hydro

Pico-hydro

30

www.itdg.org/docs/technical_information_service/micro_hydro_power.pdf

Types of Hydroelectric Installation

31 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Meeting Peak Demands

Hydroelectric plants:

Start easily and quickly and change power output rapidly Complement large thermal plants (coal and nuclear), which are most efficient in serving base power loads. Save millions of barrels of oil

32

Types of Systems

Impoundment

Hoover Dam, Grand Coulee Niagara Falls Most significantly smaller Two way flow Pumped up to a storage reservoir and returned to a lower elevation for power generation

Diversion or run-of-river systems

Pumped Storage

A mechanism for energy storage, not net energy production

33

Conventional Impoundment Dam

34 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_plant_types.html

Example

Hoover Dam (US)

35 http://las-vegas.travelnice.com/dbi/hooverdam-225x300.jpg

Diversion (Run-of-River) Hydropower

36

Example

Diversion Hydropower (Tazimina, Alaska)

37 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_plant_types.html

Micro Run-of-River Hydropower

38 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_plant_types.html

Micro Hydro Example

Used in remote locations in northern Canada

http://www.electrovent.com/#hydrofr

39

Pumped Storage Schematic

40

Pumped Storage System

41 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Example

Cabin Creek Pumped Hydro (Colorado)

Completed 1967 Capacity 324 MW

Two 162 MW units Water pumped uphill at night

Purpose energy storage

Low usage excess base load capacity

Water flows downhill during day/peak periods Helps Xcel to meet surge demand

E.g., air conditioning demand on hot summer days

Typical efficiency of 70 85%

42

Pumped Storage Power Spectrum

43

Turbine Design
Francis Turbine Kaplan Turbine Pelton Turbine Turgo Turbine New Designs
44

Types of Hydropower Turbines

45 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Classification of Hydro Turbines

Reaction Turbines

Derive power from pressure drop across turbine Totally immersed in water Angular & linear motion converted to shaft power Propeller, Francis, and Kaplan turbines Convert kinetic energy of water jet hitting buckets No pressure drop across turbines Pelton, Turgo, and crossflow turbines
46

Impulse Turbines

Schematic of Francis Turbine

47 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Francis Turbine Cross-Section

48 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Small Francis Turbine & Generator

49 "Water Turbine," Wikipedia.com

Francis Turbine Grand Coulee Dam

50 "Water Turbine," Wikipedia.com

Fixed-Pitch Propeller Turbine

51 "Water Turbine," Wikipedia.com

Kaplan Turbine Schematic

52 "Water Turbine," Wikipedia.com

Kaplan Turbine Cross Section

53 "Water Turbine," Wikipedia.com

Suspended Power, Sheeler, 1939

54

Vertical Kaplan Turbine Setup

55 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Pelton Wheel Turbine

56 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Turgo Turbine

57 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Turbine Design Ranges

Kaplan Francis Pelton Turgo

2 < H < 40 10 < H < 350 50 < H < 1300 50 < H < 250
(H = head in meters)
58

Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Turbine Ranges of Application

59 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Turbine Design Recommendations

Head Pressure
High Impulse Pelton Turgo Multi-jet Pelton Medium Crossflow Turgo Multi-jet Pelton Francis Pump-as-Turbine Low Crossflow

Reaction

Propeller Kaplan

60 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Fish Friendly Turbine Design

61 www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_rd.html

Hydro Power Calculations

62

Efficiency of Hydropower Plants

Hydropower is very efficient

Efficiency = (electrical power delivered to the busbar) (potential energy of head water) Frictional drag and turbulence of flow Friction and magnetic losses in turbine & generator

Typical losses are due to

Overall efficiency ranges from 75-95%

63 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Hydropower Calculations
P = g Q H P 10 Q H
P = power in kilowatts (kW) g = gravitational acceleration (9.81 m/s2) = turbo-generator efficiency (0<n<1) Q = quantity of water flowing (m3/sec) H = effective head (m)

64 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Example 1a
Consider a mountain stream with an effective head of 25 meters (m) and a flow rate of 600 liters () per minute. How much power could a hydro plant generate? Assume plant efficiency () of 83%.

H = 25 m Q = 600 /min 1 m3/1000 Q = 0.01 m3/sec = 0.83

1 min/60sec

P 10QH = 10(0.83)(0.01)(25) = 2.075 P 2.1 kW

65

Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Example 1b
How much energy (E) will the hydro plant generate each year?

E = Pt E = 2.1 kW 24 hrs/day 365 days/yr E = 18,396 kWh annually

About how many people will this energy support (assume approximately 3,000 kWh / person)?

People = E3000 = 18396/3000 = 6.13 About 6 people

66

Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Example 2
Consider a second site with an effective head of 100 m and a flow rate of 6,000 cubic meters per second (about that of Niagara Falls). Answer the same questions.

P 10QH = 10(0.83)(6000)(100) P 4.98 million kW = 4.98 GW (gigawatts) E = Pt = 4.98GW 24 hrs/day 365 days/yr E = 43,625 GWh = 43.6 TWh (terrawatt hours) People = E3000 = 43.6 TWh / 3,000 kWh People = 1.45 million people (This assumes maximum power production 24x7)

67

Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Economics of Hydropower

68

Production Expense Comparison

69 Wisconsin Valley Improvement Company, http://www.wvic.com/hydro-facts.htm

Capital Costs of Several Hydro Plants

Note that these are for countries where costs are bound to be lower than for fully industrialized countries
70 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Estimates for US Hydro Construction

Study of 2000 potential US hydro sites Potential capacities from 1-1300 MW Estimated development costs

$2,000-4,000 per kW Civil engineering 65-75% of total Environmental studies & licensing 15-25% Turbo-generator & control systems ~10% Ongoing costs add ~1-2% to project NPV (!)

71 Hall et al. (2003), Estimation of Economic Parameters of US Hydropower Resources, Idaho National Laboratory hydropower.id.doe.gov/resourceassessment/ pdfs/project_report-final_with_disclaimer-3jul03.pdf

Costs of Increased US Hydro Capacity

72 Hall, Hydropower Capacity Increase Opportunities (presentation), Idaho National Laboratory, 10 May 2005 www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/pdf/hall_may10.pdf

Costs of New US Capacity by Site

73 Hall, Hydropower Capacity Increase Opportunities (presentation), Idaho National Laboratory, 10 May 2005 www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/pdf/hall_may10.pdf

High Upfront Capital Expenses

5 MW hydro plant with 25 m low head

Construction cost of ~$20 million Negligible ongoing costs Ancillary benefits from dam

flood control, recreation, irrigation, etc.

50 MW combined-cycle gas turbine

~$20 million purchase cost of equipment Significant ongoing fuel costs

Short-term pressures may favor fossil fuel energy production

74

Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Environmental Impacts

75

Impacts of Hydroelectric Dams

76

Ecological Impacts

Loss of forests, wildlife habitat, species Degradation of upstream catchment areas due to inundation of reservoir area Rotting vegetation also emits greenhouse gases Loss of aquatic biodiversity, fisheries, other downstream services Cumulative impacts on water quality, natural flooding Disrupt transfer of energy, sediment, nutrients Sedimentation reduces reservoir life, erodes turbines

Creation of new wetland habitat Fishing and recreational opportunities provided by new reservoirs
77

Environmental and Social Issues

Land use inundation and displacement of people Impacts on natural hydrology

Increase evaporative losses Altering river flows and natural flooding cycles Sedimentation/silting Aquatic ecology, fish, plants, mammals Mercury, nitrates, oxygen Bacterial and viral infections

Impacts on biodiversity

Water chemistry changes

Tropics

Seismic Risks Structural dam failure risks

78

Hydropower Pros and Cons

Positive
Emissions-free, with virtually no CO2, NOX, SOX, hydrocarbons, or particulates Renewable resource with high conversion efficiency to electricity (80+%) Dispatchable with storage capacity

Negative
Frequently involves impoundment of large amounts of water with loss of habitat due to land inundation Variable output dependent on rainfall and snowfall Impacts on river flows and aquatic ecology, including fish migration and oxygen depletion Social impacts of displacing indigenous people Health impacts in developing countries High initial capital costs Long lead time in construction of large projects

Usable for base load, peaking and pumped storage applications Scalable from 10 KW to 20,000 MW Low operating and maintenance costs Long lifetimes

79

Three Gorges Pros and Cons

80 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Regulations and Policy

81

Energy Policy Act of 2005

Hydroelectric Incentives

Production Tax Credit 1.8 /KWh

For generation capacity added to an existing facility

(non-federally owned)

Adjusted annually for inflation 10 year payout, $750,000 maximum/year per facility

A facility is defined as a single turbine

Expires 2016 10% of the cost of capital improvement

Efficiency Incentive

Efficiency hurdle - minimum 3% increase Maximum payout - $750,000 One payment per facility Maximum $10M/year Expires 2016
82

5.7 MW proposed through June 2006

World Commission on Dams

Established in 1998

Mandates

Review development effectiveness of large dams and assess alternatives for water resources and energy development; and Develop internationally acceptable criteria and guidelines for most aspects of design and operation of dams

Highly socially aware organization

Concern for indigenous and tribal people Seeks to maximize preexisting water and energy systems before making new dams
83

Other Agencies Involved

FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Comm.

Ensures compliance with environmental law Social and economic development is inextricably linked to both water and energy. The key challenge for the 21st century is to expand access to both for a rapidly increasing human population, while simultaneously addressing the negative social and environmental impacts. (IWRM)
84

IWRM Integrated Water & Rsrc Mgmt

Future of Hydropower

85

Hydro Development Capacity

86 hydropower.org

Developed Hydropower Capacity

87 World Atlas of Hydropower and Dams, 2002

Regional Hydropower Potential

88 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Hydrologic Cycle

89

World Hydropower

90 Boyle, Renewable Energy, 2nd edition, Oxford University Press, 2003

Major Hydropower Producers

Canada, 341,312 GWh (66,954 MW installed) USA, 319,484 GWh (79,511 MW installed) Brazil, 285,603 GWh (57,517 MW installed) China, 204,300 GWh (65,000 MW installed) Russia, 173,500 GWh (44,700 MW installed) Norway, 121,824 GWh (27,528 MW installed) Japan, 84,500 GWh (27,229 MW installed) India, 82,237 GWh (22,083 MW installed) France, 77,500 GWh (25,335 MW installed)
1999 figures, including pumped-storage hydroelectricity
91

Hydroelectricity, Wikipedia.org

Types of Water Wheels

92

World Energy Sources

93 hydropower.org

Evolution of Hydro Production

OECD: most of Europe, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Turkey, New Zealand, UK, US
iea.org

94

Evolution of Hydro Production

OECD: most of Europe, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Turkey, New Zealand, UK, US
95 iea.org

Schematic of Impound Hydropower

96

Schematic of Impound Hydropower

97

Cruachan Pumped Storage (Scotland)

98

Francis Turbine Grand Coulee

99

Historically

Pumped hydro was first used in Italy and Switzerland in the 1890's. By 1933 reversible pump-turbines with motorgenerators were available Adjustable speed machines now used to improve efficiency

Pumped hydro is available at almost any scale with discharge times ranging from several hours to a few days. Efficiency = 70 85%
100

http://www.electricitystorage.org/tech/technologies_technologies_pumpedhydro.htm

Small Horizontal Francis Turbine

101

Francis and Turgo Turbine Wheels

102

Turbine Application Ranges

103

Wind Energy

104

Ancient Resource Meets 21st Century

105

Wind Turbines

Power for a House or City

106

Wind Energy Outline

History and Context Advantages Design Siting Disadvantages Economics Project Development Policy Future

107

History and Context

108

Wind Energy History

1 A.D.

~ 400 A.D.

Hero of Alexandria uses a wind machine to power an organ Wind driven Buddhist prayer wheels Golden era of windmills in western Europe 50,000 9,000 in Holland; 10,000 in England; 18,000 in Germany Multiblade turbines for water pumping made and marketed in U.S. Thomas Edison commissions first commercial electric generating stations in NYC and London Competition from alternative energy sources reduces windmill population to fewer than 10,000 Heyday of the small multiblade turbines in the US midwast

1200 to 1850 1850s

1882

1900

1850 1930

1936+

As many as 6,000,000 units installed

US Rural Electrification Administration extends the grid to most formerly isolated rural sites
Grid electricity rapidly displaces multiblade turbine uses
109

Increasingly Significant Power Source

coal

petroleum

natural gas

nuclear

hydro

other renewables

wind

Wind currently produces less than 1% of the nations power.

Source: Energy Information Agency

Wind could generate 6% of nations electricity by 2020.

110

111

Manufacturing Market Share

Source: American Wind Energy Association

112

US Wind Energy Capacity

10000 8000 MW 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

113

Installed Wind Turbines

114

Colorado Wind Energy Projects

Wind Energy Development
Project or Area
1. Ponnequin (EIU) (Phase I) 1. Ponnequin (Xcel) Project Info 1. Ponnequin (Phase III) Peetz Table Wind Farm Colorado Green, Lamar (Prowers County) Prowers County (Lamar) Prowers County (Lamar)

Owner
K/S Ponnequin WindSource & Energy Resources Xcel

Date Online
Jan 1999

MW
5.1

Power Purchaser/User
Xcel

Turbines / Units
NEG Micon (7) NEG Micon (22) Vestas (15) NEG Micon (33) GE Wind 1500 (108) GE Wind 1500 (1) GE Wind 1500 (3)
115

Feb-June 1999 2001

16.5

Xcel

New Century (Xcel) New Century (Xcel) Xcel Energy / GE Wind Wind Corp. Arkansas River Power Authority Lamar Utilities Board

9.9 29.7

New Century (Xcel) New Century (Xcel)

Dec 2003 2004 2004

162.0 Xcel 1.5 4.5 Arkansas River Power Authority Lamar Utilities Board

New Projects in Colorado

New Wind Projects in Colorado
Project
Spring Canyon Wray School District NA

Utility/Developer
Xcel Energy / Invenergy Wray School District RD2 Xcel Energy / Prairie Wind Energy

Location
Near Peetz Wray Near Lamar

Status
Construction to begin in June

MW Capacity
60 1.5

On Line By/ Turbines

2005 / GE Wind 1500kW (87) 2005 / 1500kW (1) 2005 / 1500kW (46)

PPA Signed

69

116

Ponnequin 30 MW
Operate with wind speeds between 7-55 mph Originally part of voluntary wind signup program Total of 44 turbines In 2001, 15 turbines added 1 MW serves ~300 customers ~1 million dollars each 750 KW of electricity each turbine Construction began Dec 98 Date online total June 1999 Hub height 181 ft Blade diameter 159 ft Land used for buffalo grazing
117

Wind Power Advantages

118

Advantages of Wind Power

Environmental Economic Development Fuel Diversity & Conservation Cost Stability

119

Environmental Benefits
No air pollution No greenhouse gasses Does not pollute water with mercury No water needed for operations

120

Economic Development Benefits

Expanding Wind Power development brings jobs to rural communities Increased tax revenue Purchase of goods & services

121

Economic Development Example

Case Study: Lake Benton, MN $2,000 per 750-kW turbine in revenue to farmers Up to 150 construction, 28 ongoing O&M jobs Added $700,000 to local tax base

122

Fuel Diversity Benefits

Domestic energy source Inexhaustible supply Small, dispersed design

reduces supply risk

123

Cost Stability Benefits

Flat-rate pricing

hedge against fuel price volatility risk

Wind electricity is inflation-proof

124

Wind Power Design

125

Power in the Wind (W/m2)

= 1/2 x air density x swept rotor area x (wind speed)3 A V3

Density = P/(RxT)
P - pressure (Pa) R - specific gas constant (287 J/kgK) T - air temperature (K)

Area = r2 m2

Instantaneous Speed (not mean speed) m/s

kg/m3

126

Wind Energy Natural Characteristics

Wind Speed

Wind energy increases with the cube of the wind speed 10% increase in wind speed translates into 30% more electricity 2X the wind speed translates into 8X the electricity

Height

Wind energy increases with height to the 1/7 power 2X the height translates into 10.4% more electricity

127

Wind Energy Natural Characteristics

Air density

Wind energy increases proportionally with air density Humid climates have greater air density than dry climates Lower elevations have greater air density than higher elevations Wind energy in Denver about 6% less than at sea level

Blade swept area

Wind energy increases proportionally with swept area of the blades

Blades are shaped like airplane wings

10% increase in swept diameter translates into 21% greater swept area Longest blades up to 413 feet in diameter

Resulting in 600 foot total height

128

Betz Limit
Theoretical maximum energy extraction from wind = 16/27 = 59.3% Undisturbed wind velocity reduced by 1/3 Albert Betz (1928)

129

How Big is a 2.0 MW Wind Turbine?

80 59.6

This picture shows a Vestas V-80 2.0-MW wind turbine superimposed on a Boeing 747 JUMBO JET

130

Wind Turbine Power Curve

2500

Vestas V80 2 MW Wind Turbine

2000

KW

1500

1000

500

10

20

30 MPH

40

50
131

Recent Capacity Enhancements

2006 5 MW 600

2000 850 kW 265

2003 1.8 MW 350

132

Turbines Constantly Improving

Larger turbines Specialized blade design Power electronics Computer modeling

produces more efficient design

Manufacturing improvements

133

Improving Reliability
Drastic improvements since mid-80s Manufacturers report availability data of over 95%

100 % Available 80 60 40 20 0 1981 '83 '85 '90 '98 Year

134

Wind Project Siting

135

Wind Power Classes

10 m (33 ft) Wind Power Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Speed m/s (mph) 0 4.4 (9.8) 5.1 (11.5) 5.6 (12.5) 6.0 (13.4) 6.4 (14.3) 7.0 (15.7) 9.4 (21.1) ft) 50 m (164 Speed m/s (mph) 0 5.6 (12.5) 6.4 (14.3) 7.0 (15.7) 7.5 (16.8) 8.0 (17.9) 8.8 (19.7) 11.9 (26.6)

Wind speed is for standard sea-level conditions. To maintain the same power density, speed increases 3%/1000 m (5%/5000 ft) elevation.
136

137

138

Siting a Wind Farm

Winds

Minimum class 4 desired for utility-scale wind farm (>7 m/s at hub height) Distance, voltage excess capacity Land-use compatibility Public acceptance Visual, noise, and bird impacts are biggest concern Economies of scale in construction Number of landowners
139

Transmission

Permit approval

Land area

Wind Disadvantages

140

Market Barriers

Siting

Noise Intermittent source of power

Transmission constraints Operational characteristics different from conventional fuel sources Financing

141

Wind Energy and the Grid

Pros

Small project size Short/flexible development time Dispatchability Generally remote location Grid connectivity -- lack of transmission capability Intermittent output

Cons

Only When the wind blows (night? Day?)

Low capacity factor Predicting the wind -- were getting better

142

Birds - A Serious Obstacle

Birds of Prey (hawks, owls, golden eagles) in jeopardy Altamont Pass News Update from Sept 22

shut down all the turbines for at least two months each winter eliminate the 100 most lethal turbines Replace all before permits expire in 13 years
143

Balancing Supply & Demand

4500

Gas
4000

3500

Gas/Hydro

Base Load Coal

3000

144

Energy Delivery
200000

Lake Benton & Storm Lake Power February 24, 2002

Lake Benton II Combined

Storm Lake

180000

160000

140000

120000

(kW)

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00

(HH:MM)

145

Energy Delivery
180000

Lake Benton & Storm Lake Power July 7, 2003

Lake Benton II Combined

Storm Lake

160000

140000

120000

100000 (kW) 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00

(HH:MM)

146

Wind Economics

147

Wind Farm Design Economics

Key Design Parameters

Mean wind speed at hub height Capacity factor

Start with 100% Subtract time when wind speed less than optimum Subtract time due to scheduled maintenance Subtract time due to unscheduled maintenance Subtract production losses
Dirty blades, shut down due to high winds

Typically 33% at a Class 4 wind site

148

Cost of Energy Components

Cost (/kWh) = (Capital Recovery Cost + O&M) / kWh/year

Capital Recovery = Debt and Equity Cost O&M Cost = Turbine design, operating environment kWh/year = Wind Resource

149

Costs Nosedive Winds Success

$0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 1980 1984 1988 1991 1995 2000

38 cents/kWh

3.5-5.0 cents/kWh
2005

Levelized cost at good wind sites in nominal dollars, not including tax credit
150

Construction Cost Elements

Financing & Legal Fees 3% Development Activity 4% Interconnect/ Subsation 4% Interest During Construction 4% Towers (tubular steel) 10% Construction 22% Design & Engineering 2% Land Transportation 2% Turbines, FOB USA 49%

151

Wind Farm Cost Components

100%

80% 60%

Balance of System
Transportation
Foundations
Tower
Control System
Drive Train Nacelle
Blades and Rotor

40%

20%

0%

750 kW 1500 kW 3000 kW

152

Wind Farm Economics

Capacity factor

Start with 100% Subtract time when wind speed < optimum Subtract time due to scheduled maintenance Subtract time due to unscheduled maintenance Subtract production losses

Dirty blades, shut down due to high winds

Typically 33% at a Class 4 wind site

153

Improved Capacity Factor

Performance Improvements due to:

Better sitting Larger turbines/energy capture Technology Advances Higher reliability

Capacity factors > 35% at good sites Examples (Year 2000)

Big Spring, Texas

37% CF in first 9 months 36% CF in first 9 months

Springview, Nebraska

154

Wind Farm Economics

Key parameter

Distance from grid interconnect

$350,000/mile for overhead transmission lines

155

Wind Farm Economics

Example

200 MW wind farm

Fixed costs - $1.23M/MW 33% capacity factor

Class 4 wind site

10 miles to grid 6%/15 year financing

100% financed

20 year project life

Determine Cost of Energy - COE

156

Wind Farm Economics

Total Capital Costs

$246M + (10 x $350K) = $249.5M 200 MW x 1000 x 365 x 24 x 0.33 = 578,160,000 kWh 578,160,000 x 20 = 11,563,200,000 kWh 3.3/kWh 1.6/kWh Wind 4.9/kWh Coal 3.7/kWh Natural gas 7.0/kWh

Total Annual Energy Production Total Energy Production Capital Costs/kWh Operating Costs/kWh Cost of Energy New Facilities

@ $12/MMBtu

157

Wind Farm Development

158

Wind Farm Development

Key parameters

Wind resource Zoning/Public Approval/Land Lease Power purchase agreements Connectivity to the grid Financing Tax incentives

159

Wind Farm Development

Wind resource

Absolutely vital to determine finances

Wind is the fuel Daily and hourly detail Preferably at projected turbine hub height Multiple towers across proposed site Correlate long term offsite data to support short term onsite data
Local NWS metrological station
160

Requires historical wind data

Install metrological towers

Multiyear data reduces financial risk

Wind Energy Variability

161

Source: Garrad Hassan America, Inc.

Wind Farm Development

Zoning/Public Approval/Land Lease

Obtain local and state governmental approvals

Often includes Environmental Impact Studies

Impact to wetlands, birds (especially raptors)

NIMBY component
View sheds

Negotiate lease arrangements with ranchers, farmers, Native American tribes, etc.

Annual payments per turbine or production based

162

Wind Farm Development

Power Purchase Agreements (PPA)

Must have upfront financial commitment from utility 15 to 20 year time frames Utility agrees to purchase wind energy at a set rate

e.g. 4.3/kWh

Financial stability/credit rating of utility important aspect of obtaining wind farm financing

PPA only as good as the creditworthiness of the uitility Utility goes bankrupt youre in trouble

163

Wind Farm Development

Connectivity to the grid

Obtain approvals to tie to the grid

Obtain from grid operators WAPA, BPA, California ISO Especially since the grid is operating near max capacity

Power fluctuations stress the grid

164

Wind Farm Development

Financing

Once all components are settled

Wind resource Zoning/Public Approval/Land Lease Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) Connectivity to the grid Turbine procurement Construction costs

Take the deal to get financed

165

Closing the Deal

Small developers utilize a partnership flip

Put the deal together Sell it to a large wind owner

e.g. Florida Power & Light, AEP, Shell Wind Energy, PPM Scottish Power Shell and PPM jointly own Lamar wind farm

Large wind owner assumes ownership and builds the wind farm

166

Wind Policy

167

Wind Farm Economics

Federal government subsidizes wind farm development in three ways

1.9 /kWh production tax credit

33.5% subsidy 29.8% subsidy 2.6% subsidy

5 year depreciation schedule

Depreciation bonus

168

Tax Incentives Issues

Small developers cant fully use federal tax credits or accelerated depreciation

They dont have a sufficient tax liability Example

A 200 MW wind farm can generate a $12.6M tax credit/year

Small developers dont have sufficient access to credit to finance a $200M+ project
169

Production Tax Credit

1.9/kWh Production Tax Credit

First 10 years for producing wind generated electricity Wind farm must be producing by 12/31/07 PTC has been on again/off again since 1992 Results in inconsistent wind farm development

PTC in place aggressive development PTC lapses little or no development

The PTC puts wind energy on par with coal and significantly less than natural gas

When natural gas > $8.00/MMBtu

Current prices: $10 $15/MMBtu

170

Wind Power Policy

Renewable Portfolio Standard

21 States have them Colorados Amendment 37

Passed by voters November 2004 3% of generation from 2007 - 2010 5% of generation from 2011 - 2014 10% of generation by 2015 and beyond

4% of renewable generation from solar PV 96% of renewable generation from wind, small hydro and biomass Small utilities can opt out of program
171

Renewable Energy Credits

You subsidize wind energy when produced by another utility

CU pays $0.006/kWh to Community Energy

To power the UMC, Wardenburg and the Recreation Center

Community Energy uses these funds to subsidize wind energy at wind farms in Lamar and in the upper Midwest Although CU isnt getting the electrons from these wind farms, it is in effect buying wind energy The three new buildings (Business, Law, and Atlas) will also be powered by wind energy

172

Inconsistent Policy Unstable Markets

173

Source: American Wind Energy Association

Future Trends

174

Expectations for Future Growth

20,000 total turbines installed by 2010 6% of electricity supply by 2020

100,000 MW of wind power installed by 2020

175

Future Cost Reductions

Financing Strategies Manufacturing Economy of Scale Better Sites and Tuning Turbines for Site Conditions Technology Improvements

176

Future Tech Developments

Application Specific Turbines

Offshore Limited land/resource areas Transportation or construction limitations Low wind resource Cold climates

177

The Future of Wind - Offshore

1.5 - 6 MW per turbine 60-120 m hub height 5 km from shore, 30 m deep ideal Gravity foundation, pole, or tripod formation Shaft can act as artificial reef Drawbacks- T&D losses (underground cables lead to shore) and visual eye sore

178

Wind Energy Storage

Pumped hydroelectric

Compressed Air Energy Storage

Georgetown facility Completed 1967 Two reservoirs separated by 1000 vertical feet Pump water uphill at night or when wind energy production exceeds demand Flow water downhill through hydroelectric turbines during the day or when wind energy production is less than demand About 70 - 80% round trip efficiency Raises cost of wind energy by 25% Difficult to find, obtain government approval and build new facilities Using wind power to compress air in underground storage caverns Costly, inefficient
Salt domes, empty natural gas reservoirs

Hydrogen storage

Use wind power to electrolyze water into hydrogen Store hydrogen for use later in fuel cells 50% losses in energy from wind to hydrogen and hydrogen to electricity 25% round trip efficiency Raises cost of wind energy by 4X 179

U.S. Wind Energy Challenges

Best wind sites distant from

Wind variability

population centers major grid connections

Non-firm power

Can mitigate if forecasting improves Debate on how much backup generation is required Cape Wind project met with strong resistance by Cape Cod residents Sea floor drops off rapidly on east and west coasts

NIMBY component

Limited offshore sites

Intermittent federal tax incentives

180

North Sea essentially a large lake

Nantucket Project

130 turbines proposed for Nantucket Sound

181

Hawaiian Wind Farm Shock Absorber

Install on 2.4 MW wind farm on Big Island of Hawaii Utilizes superconducting materials to store DC power Suddenly increased and decreased wind power output Likely to loose efficiency due to AC-DC-AC conversions
182

"Utility Scale Wind on Islands," Refocus, Jul/Aug 2003, http://www.re-focus.net