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; cos h
z
; 11
where a
1
, a
2
are the solid angles occupied by the circumsolar region, weighted by its average inci-
dence on the slope and the horizontal, respectively and F
1
, F
2
are the coecients of circumsolar
and horizon brightness, respectively (dimensionless).These multiplicative factors set the radiance
magnitude in the two anisotropic regions relative to that in the main portion of the dome. The
degree of anisotropy of the model is a function of only these two terms. The model can go from
an isotropic conguration (F
1
= F
2
= 1) to a conguration incorporating circumsolar and/or hori-
zon brightening.
F
1
max 0; F
11
F
12
D F
13
h
z
p
180
_ _ _ _ _ _
; 12
F
2
F
21
F
22
D F
23
h
z
p
180
_ _ _ _
; 13
D m
I
DH
I
on
; 14
where m is the air mass (dimensionless) and I
on
is the extraterrestrial irradiance at normal inci-
dence (W/m
2
). The required coecients, F
ij
are obtained from Perez et al. [15]. For a vertical sur-
face (b = 90), Eq. (10) becomes
I
T90
I
DH
1
2
1 F
1
F
1
a
1
a
2
_ _
F
2
_ _
. 15
H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637 629
3.3.3. Description of the Bugler model
The governing equation given by Bugler is
I
DT
0.5 I
DH
0.05 I
BN
b
cos h
z
_ _
1 cos b 0.05 I
BN
b cos h; 16
where I
BN
(b) is the beam irradiation normal to a plane of slope b and is easily calculated by Iqbal
[19] in W/m
2
.
4. Models evaluation
4.1. Methods of statistical comparison
To evaluate the accuracy of the estimated data from the three models described above, we used
three statistical indicators: normalized mean bias error, NMBE, normalized root mean square
error, NRMSE and correlation coecient, CC dened as
NRMSE
1
X
1
N
N
i1
Y
i
X
i
2
_ _1
2
; 17
where N is the number of data points, Y
i
is the predicted data point and X
i
is the observed data
point. An error of zero would indicate that all the output patterns computed by the model per-
fectly match the expected values.
NMBE
1
X
1
N
N
i1
Y
i
X
i
_ _
. 18
The NRMSE provides information on the short term performance of a model by allowing a
term by term comparison of the actual dierence between the estimated value and the measured
value. The NMBE provides information with respect to over or under estimation of the estimated
data. A positive value indicates an over estimation in the values, while a negative one indicates
under estimation, and a low NMBE value is desired. Finally, we used the CC factor to test the
linear relation between calculated and measured values.
CC
N
i1
Y
i
Y
_ _
X
i
X
_ _
N
i1
Y
i
Y
2
_ _
N
i1
X
i
X
2
_ _ _ _1
2
; 19
where Y is the predicted mean value and X is the measured mean value.
4.2. Results of models validation
The results for south facing surfaces are given in Tables 24. It is noted that the NRMSE for all
three models increase as the slope of the collector increases but remain in a domain of errors for
630 H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637
which these relations can be applied with good accuracy. Inspecting the results, it is apparent that
the models agree quite well with each other during the summer months. They deviate from each
other in the winter months when the eects of the dierence in the diuse radiation parameteri-
zation are at their maximum. The NRMSE results indicate that the Perez and Tamps anisotropic
models show similar performance on an overall basis, but Buglers model exhibits much larger
error. The NMBE results show that Perezs and Buglers models substantially under predict the
irradiance incident on an inclined surface, and the Tamps model considerably over predicts the
irradiance incident on an inclined surface on an overall basis. Our ndings conrm the observa-
tion that Perezs model describes the irradiance on inclined planes more accurately than Buglers
or Tampss models.
Table 2
Normalized root mean square errors for global radiation received on inclined surfaces
Perez models
[NRMSE, in (%)]
Bugler models
[NRMSE, in (%)]
Tamps and Coulsons
[NRMSE, in (%)]
0 40 90S 0 40 90S 0 40 90S
January 0.26 2.88 11.8 9.35 16.38 19.49 4.33 6.98 12.57
February 0.39 3.62 6.1 6.78 14.91 23.93 7.12 8.30 16.36
March 0.13 2.86 7.8 4.86 11.22 22.53 7.33 9.35 17.47
April 0.11 2.76 8.7 3.51 5.28 15.95 5.75 6.41 15.54
May 0.4 2.27 5.2 2.52 2.98 10.92 5.09 5.86 23.58
June 0.1 1.16 6.7 1.26 5.43 23.05 9.86 15.23 38.21
July 0.21 1.35 6.3 2.72 3.79 10.25 3.06 2.78 20.65
August 0.11 2.16 5.2 3.00 6.61 7.34 4.99 3.49 15.41
September 0.4 2.83 4.5 4.27 8.88 9.41 4.24 3.37 5.01
October 0.12 3.89 3.4 5.87 10.77 10.24 3.69 4.08 5.48
November 0.17 6.14 9.9 6.48 32.71 43.80 7.93 21.95 29.84
December 0.18 4.45 11.5 9.58 19.58 23.75 5.18 8.92 14.36
Table 3
Normalized mean bias errors for global radiation received on inclined surfaces
Perez models
[NMBE, in (%)]
Bugler models
[NMBE, in (%)]
Tamps and Coulsons
[NMBE, in (%)]
0 40 90S 0 40 90S 0 40 90S
January 0.20 3.23 7.19 8.03 14.72 16.51 3.61 0.36 6.41
February 0.22 3.15 1.49 5.44 13.05 18.17 6.24 2.66 5.33
March 0.12 2.19 1.47 3.75 8.68 14.21 5.94 2.53 3.17
April 0.10 2.07 0.46 3.08 3.40 7.12 4.71 4.20 3.47
May 0.22 0.47 2.45 1.97 1.76 0.28 4.64 4.77 17.48
June 0.09 0.58 5.78 0.69 3.28 2.85 8.35 12.94 21.94
July 0.13 0.62 4.06 2.53 3.00 1.36 2.62 1.33 11.27
August 0.11 1.40 3.06 2.52 5.35 3.66 4.35 1.18 9.69
September 0.19 2.68 3.25 3.86 8.40 8.76 3.71 1.22 0.75
October 0.12 2.79 2.28 5.24 9.94 9.11 3.19 1.38 1.83
November 0.17 2.22 7.07 5.06 18.68 32.85 6.60 0.05 18.61
December 0.16 2.67 7.07 7.46 16.63 19.60 4.66 2.10 5.14
H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637 631
5. Optimizing the tilt angle of solar collectors
5.1. Optimum tilt angle based on geometric factor
Many investigations have been conducted to determine, or at least estimate, the best tilt angle
for solar collectors. Some of these are, for example, / + 20 [24], / + (10 ! 30) [25] and / + 10
[26], whereas some researchers suggest two values for the tilt angle, one for summer and the other
for winter, such as / 20 [27] where / is the latitude, + for winter and for summer. In
the past few years, computer programs have been used, and the results have shown that the opti-
mum tilt angle is almost equal to the latitude [28]. It is clear from the previous review that there is
no denite value of the tilt angle that can be recommended.
In Section 4, some results concerning the accuracy of models to estimate irradiance on inclined
planes is tested by comparing the predictions to measurements of various tilt and azimuth angles.
Perezs model is found to perform signicantly better than the other two. The equations describing
the instantaneous total insolation on a tilted surface under the assumption of anisotropic distri-
bution of the sky diuse radiation was presented in the following form:
G
T
G
H
I
DH
R
T
I
DH
1 cos b
2
_ _
1 F
1
F
1
a
1
a
2
_ _
F
2
sin b
_ _
1
2
q 1 cos b G
H
. 20
After computing the total insolation on an inclined plane, it is useful to determine the eect of
slope, albedo and orientation by calculating the geometric factor, R
b
, where
R
b
Total radaiation on the tilted surface
Total radiation on a horizontal surface
G
T
G
H
. 21
Table 4
Correlation coecients values as a function tilt angles
Perez models
correlation coecient
Bugler models
correlation coecient
Tamps and Coulsons
correlation coecient
0 40 90S 0 40 90S 0 40 90S
January 0.999 0.983 0.983 0.9952 0.9968 0.9785 0.9966 0.9943 0.9813
February 0.998 0.991 0.995 0.9975 0.9973 0.9596 0.9952 0.9969 0.9698
March 1.000 0.995 0.987 0.9983 0.9882 0.9157 0.9927 0.9805 0.9199
April 1.000 0.994 0.973 0.9993 0.9942 0.8985 0.9950 0.9934 0.8846
May 0.997 0.953 0.991 0.9998 0.9989 0.9481 0.9984 0.9965 0.8848
June 1.000 0.985 0.996 0.9995 0.9923 0.7667 0.9921 0.9819 0.7611
July 0.998 0.917 0.969 0.9994 0.9973 0.8603 0.9971 0.9958 0.7067
August 1.000 0.950 0.994 0.9994 0.9969 0.9854 0.9968 0.9983 0.9271
September 0.997 0.995 0.990 0.9992 0.9960 0.9557 0.9950 0.9922 0.8950
October 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.9994 0.9995 0.9975 0.9987 0.9989 0.9969
November 1.000 0.986 0.988 0.9885 0.7180 0.7031 0.9845 0.8198 0.8208
December 1.000 0.997 0.988 0.9969 0.9943 0.9791 0.9985 0.9961 0.9842
632 H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637
We have calculated the geometric factor, R
b
, for south facing surfaces inclined at (5 ! 90)
from the horizontal position. All calculations are based on the anisotropic sky diuse radiation
model, and ground reection is assumed perfectly diuse. From Table 5, we observe that at high
tilt angles and during summer months, R
b
may be less than one. On the other hand, the monthly
average daily values of b
Opt
are predicted and listed in Table 6. The optimum tilt angle was found
by searching for values for which R
b
is a maximum for a specic period. Since changing the tilt
angle to its daily and monthly optimum values throughout the year does not seem to be practical,
Table 5
Monthly values of the geometric factor R
b
as a function tilt angle
Solar collectors tilt angles
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Panel A
January 1.0656 1.1412 1.2101 1.2716 1.3256 1.3714 1.4088 1.4374 1.4572
February 1.0505 1.1077 1.1583 1.2019 1.2383 1.2669 1.2879 1.3009 1.3058
March 1.0204 1.0440 1.0620 1.0744 1.0811 1.0819 1.0771 1.0663 1.0500
April 1.0045 1.0135 1.0169 1.0148 1.0070 0.9938 0.9751 0.9512 0.9222
May 0.9955 0.9931 0.9859 0.9731 0.9547 0.9309 0.9019 0.8678 0.8289
June 0.9928 0.9828 0.9674 0.9477 0.9223 0.8911 0.8546 0.8130 0.7665
July 0.9953 0.9885 0.9760 0.9595 0.9374 0.9099 0.8772 0.8395 0.7971
August 1.0067 1.0146 1.0166 1.0124 1.0018 0.9851 0.9622 0.9333 0.8987
September 1.0233 1.0467 1.0640 1.0751 1.0797 1.0782 1.0701 1.0558 1.0353
October 1.0470 1.1003 1.1466 1.1856 1.2172 1.2408 1.2566 1.2643 1.2636
November 1.0694 1.1421 1.2078 1.2663 1.3170 1.3596 1.3936 1.4190 1.4356
December 1.0828 1.1686 1.2476 1.3192 1.3827 1.4377 1.4837 1.5203 1.5475
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Panel B
January 1.4676 1.4693 1.4615 1.4446 1.4187 1.3840 1.3408 1.2894 1.2301
February 1.3029 1.2918 1.2727 1.2459 1.2114 1.1695 1.1207 1.0652 1.0033
March 1.0281 1.0008 0.9683 0.9309 0.8888 0.8425 0.7921 0.7383 0.6812
April 0.8883 0.8498 0.8072 0.7611 0.7114 0.6587 0.6033 0.5457 0.4868
May 0.7861 0.7406 0.6918 0.6397 0.5845 0.5269 0.4697 0.4124 0.3565
June 0.7177 0.6670 0.6125 0.5548 0.4942 0.4349 0.3766 0.3170 0.2659
July 0.7511 0.7026 0.6514 0.5969 0.5397 0.4815 0.4245 0.3673 0.3135
August 0.8588 0.8138 0.7644 0.7113 0.6547 0.5949 0.5319 0.4673 0.4023
September 1.0089 0.9765 0.9387 0.8955 0.8473 0.7947 0.7380 0.6777 0.6143
October 1.2550 1.2383 1.2135 1.1810 1.1410 1.0937 1.0396 0.9791 0.9126
November 1.4429 1.4413 1.4306 1.4108 1.3823 1.3450 1.2996 1.2460 1.1849
December 1.5648 1.5722 1.5696 1.5572 1.5347 1.5027 1.4612 1.4105 1.3510
Table 6
Predicted values of the optimum tilt angle for the Helwan site
January February March April May June July August September October November December
55 45 30 15 5 5 5 15 25 40 50 55
H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637 633
another possibility, such as changing the tilt angle once per season was considered. Using the pre-
dicted values given by Table 6 the optimum tilt of a at-plate collector for use during the winter
season is approximately 43.33 for the Helwan site. The optimum tilt of a at-plate collector used
during the summer months is 15 for the same site. Finally, the optimum tilt angle of a at-plate
collector used continuously throughout the year is 28.75 and oriented towards the south for the
Helwan site.
5.2. Optimum tilt angle based on clearness index
The clearness index, K
I
, dened as the ratio of earths surface global irradiance over the extra-
terrestrial global irradiance, was introduced as a norm to characterize the optimum tilt of south
facing collectors at a given point in time when only the global irradiance is known. According to
Elsayed [29], one can show that the optimum tilt angle depends on several parameters as indicated
below
b
Opt
f /; N; c; K
I
; q; 22
where N is the day that represents the month under consideration. The ground reectivity q is
about 0.2 for ground without snow and 0.7 for ground covered by snow as recommended by Duf-
e and Beckman [2]. The monthly average clearness index K
I
hardly ever falls outside the range
0.30.7 in most locations around the world. The following correlation is developed and found to
predict the values of b
Opt
with an accuracy of about 6 for / = 2040 and an accuracy of about
10 for / = 5060 [29].
b
Opt
6 4.8K
I
0.86K
0.27
I
/ 0.0021/
2
31K
0.37
I
0.094K
0.46
I
/ 0.000634K
1.7
I
/
2
cos
360
365
N 11.5
_ _
_ _
; 23
where N is the Julian day of the mean day of each month.
Using the previous formula, the predicted optimum tilt angle for each month at the Helwan site
was tabulated in Table 7. It is noted from Table 7 that the optimum tilt angle for the month of
March is approximately equal to the latitude angle, /. For this month, a solar collector tilted at an
angle equal to the latitude will receive solar radiation nearly normally. Similarly, the optimum
angle recorded for September is approximately equal to the latitude of the location. The yearly
optimum tilt angle is 26.7 for the Helwan site and oriented towards the south. These results seem
to agree quite well with the predicted values obtained from the previous section on a monthly and
yearly basis.
Table 7
Predicted values of the optimum tilt angle for the Helwan site
January February March April May June July August September October November December
N 17 47 75 105 135 162 198 228 258 288 318 344
K
I
0.47 0.45 0.55 0.58 0.57 0.60 0.61 0.60 0.58 0.60 0.52 0.48
b
Opt
50.9 41.1 29.5 15.1 3.8 1.4 1.3 11.2 25.2 39.9 50.0 53.8
634 H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637
5.3. Optimum tilt angle based on declination factor
Various equations listed in Tiris and Tiris [30] were tested here to recommend the one that is
most accurate for estimating the optimal collector slope for the Helwan site based on the declina-
tion factor.
b 33.24 1.31 d; 24
b 35.15 1.37 d 0.007 d
2
; 25
b 35.15 1.39 d 0.007 d
2
4.26 10
5
d
3
; 26
b 22.09 25.79K
1
1.49 d. 27
Table 8 shows the results for the above mentioned equations, and we can observe that the
agreement is good between the results obtained by Eqs. (24), (25) and (27) with respect to the pre-
vious results obtained in Sections 5.1 and 5.2. Also, it is noticeable that the optimum tilt angle for
June is negative; the negative sign determines the orientation of the solar collector, which means
that the solar collector is faced towards the north. A positive sign indicates that the solar collector
is directed toward the south.
6. Experimental verication
In this section, experimental verication was presented based on weekly measurements ob-
tained at a multi-position test facility [31]. The tests were started at noon time when the PV mod-
ule is vertical and facing north (i.e., the tilt angle is 90). The tests continue to the horizontal
mode and are completed to south facing with the tilt angle of +90. At every ve degrees variation
Table 9
Comparison between predicted and measured values of the optimum tilt angle
January February March April May June July August September October November December
R
b
55 45 30 15 5 5 5 15 25 40 50 55
K
I
50.9 41.1 29.5 15.1 3.8 1.4 1.3 11.2 25.2 39.9 50.0 53.8
Eq. (24) 60.5 50.3 35.9 20.7 8.7 3.04 5.38 15.1 12.7 44.4 57.1 63.3
Eq. (25) 60.6 51.7 37.8 21.4 7.05 0.2 2.84 14.8 30.7 46.2 57.8 62.9
Eq. (27) 65.4 32.4 38.7 22.5 8.61 3.14 6.24 17.4 33.0 50.6 63.1 68.5
Experiment 51 48 33 21 4 4 7 20 32 48 53 55
Table 8
Predicted values of the optimum tilt angle for the Helwan site
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Eq. (24) 60.5 50.3 35.9 20.7 8.7 3.04 5.38 15.1 12.7 44.4 57.1 63.3
Eq. (25) 60.6 51.7 37.8 21.4 7.05 0.2 2.84 14.8 30.7 46.2 57.8 62.9
Eq. (26) 61.0 51.9 37.9 21.2 6.68 0.6 2.42 14.5 30.7 46.4 58.1 63.4
Eq. (27) 65.4 32.4 38.7 22.5 8.61 3.14 6.24 17.4 33.0 50.6 63.1 68.5
H.K. Elminir et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 47 (2006) 624637 635
in the tilt angle, the PV module parameters (i.e., current and voltage) were recorded. Using a com-
puter program for tting the data smoothly for each day of the measurements, the optimum tilt
angles are determined. Here, the optimum tilt angle is the angle at which the maximum average
output is obtained. Regarding the results obtained from Table 9, the experimental optimum tilt
angles seem to agree quite well with the predicted values obtained from the previous sections
except in the winter where the variation of diuse fraction is a maximum.
7. Conclusions
Irradiation data recorded on vertical surfaces facing south and at 40 every 10 min during the
daylight hours from January to December 2003 have been compared with the estimated solar
radiation from inclined surface models. The results show that Perezs model most accurately
reproduces the variation in irradiation on all vertical surfaces. Therefore, we used Perez model
to determine the best inclination for a south facing solar collector. The results of computations
show that the optimum tilt angles with respect to the maximum daily insolation amounts incident
on the collector surface exhibit a strong seasonal trend. During the winter months, the maximum
daily insolation is received on a south facing collector with tilt angles around 43.33, whereas dur-
ing the summer, the maximum daily insolation is incident on a nearly horizontal surface. The
maximum yearly solar radiation can be achieved using a tilt angle approximately equal to a sites
latitude. On a daily basis, the optimum tilt angles of south facing collectors may vary within rel-
atively wide limits. In conclusion, summarizing the previous considerations, the optimum tilt
angle of solar radiation collection systems located in Helwan follow the general rule applied by
many researchers that yearly optimum tilt is about (/ 15) where / is the latitude of the loca-
tion and where plus and minus signs are used in the winter and summer, respectively.
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