April1Update

TheSeeleyFireandPotentialImpactsonHuntingtonCreekWaterSupplyClaySpringsFireandPotential
ImpactsonOakCreekWaterSupply
TheSeeleyFire
TheSeeleyfireburnedabout48,000acresincentralUtahsouthofScofieldinJulyof2012,including18,500
acresoftheHuntingtonCreekWatershedjustbelowElectricLakeinthebottomhalfofthebasin.This
constitutesnearlyhalf(46%)ofthetotalwatershedareaof40,100acres.

Figure1.BurnedportionoftheHuntingtonCreekWatershed.
TheimpactfireshaveonwatersupplyandstreamflowinhighreliefareasoftheintermountainWestcanbe
complex.Generallyinthefirstfewyearsafterafire,snowmeltcanbeaccelerateddueto:(1)
carbon/dust/organicmaterialdepositiononthesnowsurface;(2)thevolumeofstandingblackenedtimber
changingthealbedo(reflectivity)ofthesnowpack;and(3)thereductionincanopycoverinareasthat
formerlysustainedevergreenforest.Snowmeltcanconsequentlybeadvancedasmuchas6weeks,ormore.
Theseconditionscanalsoleadtogreatersnowpacklossestowinderosionandsublimation.Conversely,the

lackofforestcovercanincreasetheamountofsnowonthegroundthatwouldnormallybeinterceptedbythe
forestcanopy,and,particularlyinthedecadeortwoafterthefire,mayleadtohigheroverallAprilJulystream
flow.However,inthefirstfewpostfireyearswithlowsnowpacksandwithlongperiodsbetweenstorms,the
neteffectcanbeloweroverallsnowwaterequivalentonthegroundwithearlymelt.Someoftherunoffthat
wouldnormallyhaveoccurredintheAprilJulytimeframecouldhappeninMarchorearlier.

HuntingtonCanyon,southfacingaspectwithallsnowpackmelted.


Patchysnowonnorthandeastfacingaspects.
WatersupplyforecastmodelsaregearedtopredicttheAprilJulyrunoffseasonbasedonobservedsnowpack
andothervariables.TherearenodatasitesinsidetheHuntingtonCreekburnareaanddatausedinthe
hydrologicmodelsarefromnonimpactednearbysites.Assuch,weanticipatethatrunoffonHuntington
Creekwillbeshiftedtoanearliertimeframeduetotheburnconditionsinthewatershedandthatthe
AprilJulyforecastislikelytooverestimatetheAprilJulystreamflow.Theseconditionscouldpersistfor
severalyears.ItisalsoimportanttonotethattheinflowtoElectricLakeabovetheburnareawillnotbe
impacted.
Withsolittlesnowlefttomeltontheburnareathereislittleprobabilityofseriouserosionormasswasting
phenomenafromthefirearea.Theremainingsnowislikelytomeltinsmalldailyincrementsandinfiltratethe
soilsoverthenextmonthorso.Intenseprecipitationeventscouldtriggermudanddebrisflowsfromthe
burn.

WaterusersthatrelyonHuntingtonCreekareadvisedthattheAprilJulyflowwilllikelybelessthanthe50%
exceedancenumberandforplanningpurposesareadvisedtousealowerfiguresuchasthe70%exceedance
number.

PRICE SAN RAFAEL

Streamflow Forecasts - April 1, 2013
==================================================================================================================================
| <<====== Drier ====== Future Conditions ======= Wetter =====>> |
|
|
Forecast Point
Forecast | ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ====================== |
Period |
90%
70%
|
50%
|
30%
10%
| 30-Yr Avg.
| (1000AF) (1000AF) |
(1000AF) (% AVG.) |
(1000AF) (1000AF) |
(1000AF)
====================================================================|=======================|=====================================
Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield
APR-JUL
9.3
13.1
|
16.0
53
|
19.2
25
30
|
|
Price R nr Scofield Reservoir (2)
APR-JUL
10.1
15.6
|
20
49
|
25
33
41
|
|
White R bl Tabbyune Creek
APR-JUL
2.4
3.9
|
5.0
32
|
6.3
8.5
15.5
|
|
Green R at Green River, UT (2)
APR-JUL
700
1050
|
1320
45
|
1630
2130
2960
|
|
Electric Lake Inflow (2)
APR-JUL
2.8
4.5
|
6.0
45
|
7.7
10.5
13.3
|
|
Huntington Ck nr Huntington (2)
APR-JUL
10.5
14.7
|
18.0
45
|
22
28
40

InthisAprilreleasethe50%exceedancenumberforHuntingtonCreekis18,000acrefeetandthe70%
exceedancefigureis14,700acrefeet.Theeasywaytoreadthistable:weare90%suretoget10.5KAFor
higher,70%suretoget14.7KAF,50%toget18KAFandonly30%chanceofgetting22KAForhigher.Dueto
theburnconditionsacrossthewatershednotcapturedbymodelinput;weadviseusingalowerforecast
numbersuchasthe14.7KAFfigureinthisexample.
TheClaySpringsFire(OakCreekWatershed)
TheClaySpringsfirenorthofDeltaburnedabout180,000acresinmidJulyof2012.Thisfirewas,inplaces,
extremelyhotandburnedrootsbelowthegroundsurface.Theterraininthiseasttowestfacingwatershedis
verysteepwithabout50%ofthewatershedonasouthfacingaspect.Nearlytheentirewatershed(99.6%)
wasimpactedtosomedegreebythefire.


ClaySpringsfireperimetershowninred.
TheOakCreekSNOTELsitewasdestroyedandlaterrebuilt,andiscurrentlygivinggoodinformationon
snowpack,precipitation,temperatureandsoilmoisture.


TheSNOTELsiteatOakCreekhascompletelymeltedoutsome3weeksearlierthanlastyearwith
approximatelythesameamountofsnowpack,illustratinghowburnedareasimpactmeltrates.(currentyear
snowpackblueline,2012,greenline)Thesiteisatanelevationof7800feetonasteepnorthfacingaspect
andnormallyholdssnowwellintoMay.Atthispoint,thevastmajorityofthewatershedissnowfreeand
snowmeltrunoffisessentiallyoverfortheyear.

ThesurfacesoilsattheOakCreekSNOTELsiteareshowingpossiblesignsofhydrophobicityorwater
repellencyasthe2inchsoilmoisturesensor(greenline)refusestowetupsubstantiallyinspiteofthesite

meltingnearly7inchesofsnow.Thelowersensorsshowincreasedmoisturelikelyfromsourcesuphillfrom
thesensors.SnowSurveypersonnelonsiteinlateMarchreportthatthesurfacesoilswereextremelydry
eveninareasrecentlysnowcovered.Thisconditioncouldposeproblemsifhighintensityprecipitationevents
occurlaterinspringandsummer.

SouthfacingaspectoftheOakCreekWatershed.Dryanddustynorunofffromthisarea.


NorthfacingaspectoftheOakCreekWatershedwheretheSNOTELsiteislocated.
ThisphotowastakenafewdayspriortowhentheSNOTELsitemeltedoutandiscurrentlybareofanysnow.
WaterusersthatrelyonOakCreekareadvisedthattheAprilJulyflowwilllikelybelessthanthe50%
exceedancenumberandforplanningpurposesareadvisedtousealowerfiguresuchasthe70%exceedance
number.
==================================================================================================================================
LOWER SEVIER RIVER BASIN
Streamflow Forecasts - April 1, 2013
==================================================================================================================================
| <<====== Drier ====== Future Conditions ======= Wetter =====>> |
|
|
Forecast Point
Forecast | ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ====================== |
Period |
90%
70%
|
50%
|
30%
10%
| 30-Yr Avg.
| (1000AF) (1000AF) |
(1000AF) (% AVG.) |
(1000AF) (1000AF) |
(1000AF)
====================================================================|=======================|=====================================
Sevier R nr Gunnison
APR-JUL
6.4
34
|
52
53
|
70
98
99
|
|
Chicken Ck nr Levan
APR-JUL
0.05
1.40
|
2.40
53
|
3.40
4.50
4.50
|
|
Oak Creek nr Oak City
APR-JUL
0.09
0.20
|
0.30
18
|
0.42
0.63
1.66

InthisAprilreleasethe50%exceedancenumberforOakCreekis300acrefeetandthe70%exceedancefigure
is200acrefeet.Theeasywaytoreadthistable:weare90%suretoget90KAForhigher,70%suretoget200
KAF,50%toget300KAFandonly30%chanceofgetting420KAForhigher.Duetotheburnconditionsacross
thewatershednotcapturedbymodelinput,weadviseusingalowerforecastnumbersuchasthe90orthe
200KAFfigureinthisexample.Theseforecastfiguresaredramaticallylowerthanthoseissuedlastmonthdue
tothehugedeclineinsnowpackacrossthewatershed.