Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 8, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 8, 2013

Highlights
US Non-Farm Employment Change declined to 88,000 in March. European Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent in the month of Feb. US Unemployment Rate declined to 7.6 percent in the last month. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined to 0.2 percent in March. German Factory Orders increased by 2.3 percent in February. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on the back of stimulus measures declared by the Bank of Japan in the last week. However, unfavorable economic data from US in prior week added downside pressure in the global market sentiments. US Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 180,000 to 88,000 in March as against a rise of 268,000 in February. Trade Balance was at a deficit of $43 billion in February from previous deficit of $44.5 billion a month ago. Unemployment Rate declined to 7.6 percent in March as compared to rise of 7.7 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5553.3 18450.2 14565.25 1553.3 15250.4 1927.2 58497.8 12833.6 92.70 1575.40 2720.10 7422.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 -1.6 0.2 1.6 -0.6 1.5 1.7 -0.4 0.0

as on April 5, 2013 WoW -2.3 -2.0 -0.1 -1.0 -0.6 -3.3 3.8 -0.1 -4.7 -1.5 -3.9 -1.5 1.1 MoM -6.6 -6.3 1.2 0.9 -5.9 -3.8 -0.1 4.9 0.8 -0.2 -5.9 -5.4 0.1 YoY 4.3 0.9 11.4 11.1 0.2 0.5 -8.2 31.4 -8.6 -2.3 -12.3 -11.3 1.0

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.7 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic statement from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable economic data from US and fall in US equities also prevented fall in the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 82.31 and closed at 82.60 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index 82.60 54.80 55.10 55.10 Prev. day -0.2 0.2 -0.12 -0.11 WoW -0.7 -0.9 0.77 0.78

as on April 5, 2013 MoM 0.6 -0.8 -0.11 -0.10 YoY 4.0 -6.9 7.27 7.28

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.9 percent. The currency depreciated on account of weak global and domestic market sentiments coupled with unfavorable services PMI data from the country. Additionally, expectations that foreign inflows will be wiped off in the near future exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. The currency touched a low of 54.94 in the last week and closed at 54.80 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.639.30 crores ($117.75 million) as on 5th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.56,261.70 crores ($10,427.80 million) till 5th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectations that foreign inflows from the country will be wiped off in near future will also exert downside pressure in the currency.

US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for April 8, 2013 Support 54.80/54.95 Resistance 55.25/55.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 8, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 1.4 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic statement from the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that central bank will take necessary steps if debt crisis worsens. Further, favorable services PMI, German factory orders data along with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with decline in Spanish and Italian manufacturing data. European Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent in February as against a rise of 0.9 percent a month ago. European Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at -0.6 percent in the Q4 of 2012. German Factory Orders increased by 2.3 percent in February from earlier decline of 1.6 percent in prior month. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3039 and closed at 1.2989 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of worries over financial instability in Portugal. The court in Portuguese invalidated some of the austerity measures which were implemented in 2011. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX may add downside pressure. However, expectation of favorable economic data from Euro region may cushion sharp decline in currency or even reversal in trend may be witnessed. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.70/70.95 71.40/71.55 valid for April 8, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2989 71.27 71.2 71.2 Prev. day 0.4 -1.0 0.81 0.83

as on April 5, 2013 WoW 1.4 -2.0 1.67 1.69 MoM -0.1 -1.0 -0.89 -0.88 YoY -0.6 #N/A 5.41 5.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) 1.5333 84.07 83.81 Prev. day 0.66 0.632 0.81

as on April 5, 2013

WoW 0.9 1.95 1.30

MoM 2.8 1.14 0.26

YoY -3.1 4.05 2.89

GBP/INR
On weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.9 percent on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with favorable economic data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of weak global market sentiments. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined to 0.2 percent in March as against a rise of 0.5 percent in February. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5362 in the last week and closed at 1.5333 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note today on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries over United Kingdom economic conditions may add downside pressure on the sterling pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 8, 2013 Support 83.25/83.55 Resistance 84.05/84.40

GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.81

0.82

1.30

0.27

2.89

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 8, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 3.6 percent in the last week on the back of stimulus measures declared by Bank of Japan. Further, unfavorable economic data from the country also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched a weekly low of 97.83 and closed at 97.52 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable current account data from the country will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 8, 2013 Support 56.90/56.50 Resistance 57.70/58.0
Source: Telequote

as on April 5, 2013 Last 97.52 0.5619 57.32 57.31 Prev day 1.2 -1.27 -0.81 -0.83 WoW 3.6 -2.45 -1.23 -1.26 MoM 1.6 -4.55 -3.18 -3.16 YoY 18.5 -9.31 -8.17 -8.17

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 8, 2013

Indicator Current Account German Industrial Production m/m Country Japan Europe Time (IST) 5:20am 3:30pm Actual 0.00T Forecast 0.46T 0.4% Previous 0.36T 0.0% Impact High Medium

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