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Only Financial Weekly Published in English & Gujarati

GAMC No. :1703/2012-14. Issued by SSP Ahd. Valid up to 31-12-2014

VOL : 6 Issue No: 7
RNI No : GUJENG / 2008 / 24320

8th April to 14th April 2013

Shardul Kulkarni
Sr. Technical Analyst

Angel Broking

Relentless selling continues as IT and FMCG derails

The stronghold of the bulls has now been breached. The move in the second half of the last week has left the bulls in a state of shock. With IT and FMCG starting to crack, there is no space to hide. Also, the mood in Global markets isnt too positive either. The Bank of Japan announced a stimulus plan to revive growth but North Korea has become even more aggressive. Since the Jobs data in the US is weak, (88000 jobs against expectations of 190000 jobs being created), the quantitative easing program is most likely to continue. Will the negative sentiments in India spread to the US or will the vice versa happen, it really seems to be a matter of guesswork as of now. Technically speaking, the market has now completed a full circle. The Nifty took 48 sessions to move from 5548 (20th November 2012) to 6111 (29th January 2013). The breach of 5548 on Friday has taken place in 46 sessions post 29 January 2013. Considering the Elliot wave / Neowave theory, it can be said that the first leg of the downward impulse has now been confirmed. However the Sensex has not broken the corresponding lows at 18256 (low on 20th Nov 2013). This divergence gives little comfort. On the other hand the broader market has been battered and bruised too badly in exactly the same period. For those who keenly watch the technical charts, the Nifty is now perched on the Bollinger band support level (weekly chart) near to 5550. Another weekly close below 5520 will unleash significant pain in Indian Equities. However the likelihood of a bounce is still there as the momentum indicators on the daily chart, indicating strong positive divergence. That inspires little confidence to initiate short positions at the current levels.

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The Head of the Bearish Head and shoulder pattern on the weekly chart seems to be in place but the formation of the Right shoulder is yet awaited. The horizontal neckline support is also at the 5550 mark. Thus the bounce from current levels to form the Right shoulder of the bearish pattern can be expected. Another interesting point to note is the currency space. The US dollar index has begun to slide and a fall below the 82 levels will confirm that another downward leg towards 79 is in the offing. This will in turn prove to be a boon for metal counters and other currencies. The euro has already jumped above the 1.30 mark in just 2 sessions and a move beyond 1.31 will signal a very high probability that 1.35 will be retested. That would mean that liquidity will flow back into precious metals and other riskier asset classes. In spite of the fall in the Dow in the last week, the charts continue to be in a higher top higher bottom cycle. This cycle would be disturbed if the Dow falls below 14100. In my article last week I had mentioned that there is a high probability of a pullback towards 5850 / 5900. Considering what has happened in the last 3 days of the week, this expectation may seem unrealistic and ignorant to facts. The FIIs are selling and the DIIs are not keen to buy. However I would want to stick to my view that I would not want to short the market at these levels. I would wait for that bounce. It is entirely possible that I may miss a great opportunity to make a quick buck on the short side, but the risks associated with that trade are far more than the rewards that may unfold.

Terrific Shots
Fairfield Atlas : Stock gears up for double century on delisting plans Pidilite Ind : Evergreen stock of an evergreen product manufacturer
Fairfield Atlas (Rs. 186.00) (Code: 520145) :- Established in 1990, this Mumbai-based companys shares are listed on the BSE in the B Group and have a face value of Rs. 10. During the past year, the companys shares touched a high of Rs. 197.90 and a low of Rs. 95.40. Interestingly, the company had touched the low of Rs. 95.40 on February 5, 2013, while it touched the 52-week high of Rs. 197.90 on April 2. Fairfield is a subsidiary of TH Licensing Inc of USA, which holds 83.91 per cent stake in the company. The company mainly manufactures transmission gear & transmission box, custom gears, custom assembly, torque hub, torque lock, and other products, which are used in agriculture construction, automotive energy and mining sectors. The companys equity is Rs. 27.32 crores. In the first nine months of the previous fiscal, companys profit has gone up from Rs. 20.38 crores to Rs. 21.05 crores. Company has achieved EPS of Rs. 7.70. The main reason for the spurt in the stock is the approval to its delisting plans. The companys promoter has decided to go for delisting of the shares, which is why the price has gone up by more than one hundred rupees in less than two months. The company could achieve EPS of Rs. 9.50 for the whole year. Experts believe that the companys delisting offer could possibly be at a PE of 30. In case of such a situation, the delisting offer could be made at around Rs. 270 per share. This would mean that the stock could soon hit the double century mark and rise higher. Pidilite Ind (Rs. 260.00)(Code: 500331) :- The shares of Mumbai-headquartered and Parekh Group promoted Pidilite Industries are listed in the A Group on the BSE. The shares have a face value of Re. 1. During the past year, the shares touched a high of Rs. 278 and a low of Rs. 154.25. The company is engaged in production of adhesives, but such is the strength of its brand, that it is famously known for its brand and not as a specialty chemical or adhesive manufacturer. The companys popular brands include Fevicol, Dr. Fixit, Fevikwik, Moto Max, M-Seal, Fevistic, Fevicol Marine, Fevicol Speedex, DDL, Terminator Fevilite, among others. The companys equity is Rs. 50.77 crores. As against this, company has huge reserves of Rs. 1,275.36 crores. As of March 2012, the companys total debt stood at only Rs. 148.28 crores. The company has achieved steady growth over the years. At the end of March 2008, companys turnover was Rs. 1,732.43 crores and net profit was Rs. 171.90 crores, which increased to Rs. 3,109.74 crores and Rs. 322.64 crores at the end of March 2012. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2012-13, company has registered turnover of Rs. 2,839.08 crores and a net profit of Rs. 341.76 crores. The promoters hold 70.06 per cent stake in the company, FII holding is 13.18 per cent, DIIs hold 5.34 per cent, while remaining 11.42 per cent is held by the public. The stock of this steady growth achiever and evergreen product manufacturer can be an evergreen in a portfolio.

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alk own

of the

How fair is the proposal to put e-liquid shares in option mechanism?

Instead of protecting small investors UK Sinha's new proposal will wipe out them from the market
No actions have been taken against operators for
speculative activities, while innocent investors have to suffer
UK Sinha, a Bihar cadre IPS officer, took charge as chairman of SEBI in 2011. He used to head UTI Mutual Funds before. As soon as taking the charge, he started investors' helpline for helping small investors. However, apart from that he had not taken any other step for protecting small investors. On the contrary, a series of actions by Sinha drove investors out of the market. Though function of SEBI is to protect investor, it seems to be protecting operators. In the initial phase of his tenure many bogus companies took IPO route for market penetration. Small investors made huge losses as the share price of these companies were artificially high. As a result, Sinha came up with such rules that discouraged companies to come up with IPO. The minimum shareholding rule was expected to create huge movement in IPO market. However, the central government came up with offer for sale instead of IPO. Many more private companies follow the suite. It is an open secret how UPA government manipulate things. They started selling big lots of PSUs at high price and whenever they did not get buyer they used LIC. Now, these stocks are being traded at much lower price. It proves that SEBI is more concern over safety of operators who fool people rather than protecting small investors. Now Sinha is coming up with a rule that will make trading of e-liquid share almost impossible from April 8. Of total 6922 listed shares on BSE, 1312 are suspended, 1722 are delisted. Only 3888 shares are listed of which 2050 shares are in e-liquid category. E-liquid share means: 1) shares which has witnessed less than 10,000 volumes on

Under UK Sinha's leadership IPOs have stopped, retail investors are kept away from Offer for Sale, volume is no bar for SMEs

Of total 3088 listed companies 2050 will be in e-liquid category Companies with strong fundamentals and track record of offering attractive dividends are also in e-liquid category

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average in last three months and 2) it has witnessed less than 50 deals daily. Now SEBI is planning to allow trading period of only eight minutes per hour for these stocks. If a small investor sells his shares in morning and then buys back in evening he might be suspected for circular trading. Share market means free trading of stocks. There is no restriction in number of deals in frontline shares but restrictions have been imposed on these 2050 scripts. If SEBI fears speculative activities why does not it ban trading in these companies instead of putting restrictions. SEBI does not take any actions against big companies which witnesses high volume trade only because of speculations. Recently, BSE and NSE have started SME exchanges. Small companies are listed on these platforms. These companies do not see much volume. If SEBI has problem with lesser volume, it should not have allowed such exchanges. Moreover, there is no guarantee that companies with big volumes are not involved in speculative activities. There is greater risk of duping of investors in such companies. We have mentioned names of certain companies in the box which has been involved in speculations in past few days, but no actions have been initiated. Yet another box displays some of the operatorbased speculative shares. The companies' performance is very bad still volatile movement has been witnessed with huge ups and downs. The box also shows e-liquid companies where in no speculations have come to notice. These companies pay dividend regularly, the investors have not suffered much loss and promoters do not have sold their share on the contrary they have bought on lower rates. Still SEBI doubts speculative activities in such shares. It creates certain issues such as on which grounds SEBI suspects speculative activities, if big volume trading used to take place in these shares then how speculation takes place. SEBI's move will wipe out small investors, sub-brokers and small brokers from the market. Sinha may come up with new rules but has failed to take strict actions against operators involved in speculations. Even today, Ketan Parekh's name comes in circulation in one stock or another every six months. Even small operators are also working hand in gloves with promoters encouraging speculative activities. However, SEBI seems to be least concerned. Small investors must bring it notice to SEBI the problems they are going to face due to this new rule either through phone call or by writing a simple post card. Unless and until investors are not aware about their rights and they don't take up the issue, SEBI will work at its own whims and fancies which will ultimately create problems for small investors.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

5526-5441 - Support Zone

200 DMA Breached :- Finally it happened, the 200dma was breached convincingly this week. The pull-back witnessed at the start of the week was short Jatin Sanghavi lived as the bears took control and went for the kill. Now even the long term (Mumbai) Trend of the market has turned Bearish. But in the near term, the market is (M) 098205 26455 very close to a strong Support Zone between Sensex 18284-17976 and Nifty E-mail : 5526-5441. This Support Zone will be severely tested as the Nifty has com- jatinsanghavi100@yahoo.com pleted a Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern and the target for that pattern falls at 5204. This Weeks Recommendations Technically Speaking :- Sensex opened the week at 18863, made a Co. Name CMP SL TGT-1 TGT-2 2715 2740 2675 2633 high of 19060, low of 18389 and closed the week at 18450. Thus it regis- Sell Grasim 998 1015 972 945 tered a weekly loss of 385 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the Sell ICICI Sell M & M 838 851 819 799 week at 5697, made a high of 5754, low of 5534 and closed the week at Sell Jub. Food 1148 1164 1123 1096 5553. Thus the Nifty went down by 129 points on a weekly basis. Sell NMDC 125 128 120 115 Both the indices made big black body candle on the weekly charts with a slightly long upper shadow which indicates continuation of bearishness. On the daily charts, both the indices made a small black body candle with small shadows but that is on the back of two Opening Black body Marubuzos for the Nifty and two big black body candles for the Sensex. Hence both Sensex and Nifty suggest continuation of bearishness as per the daily and weekly charts. The indices continue to be below the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 19082 and Nifty - 5754) and the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 19358 and Nifty - 5845). This week both the indices even breached the long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 18594 and Nifty - 5641) and have closed below it. Thus the trend in the short term and medium term was bearish, but that in the long term timeframe has also turned down. Both the indices are currently very close to the Bullish Rising Gap between Sensex 18284-18062 and Nifty 5526-5447. This gap has acted as a strong support for the market even before as the Sensex had bounced back from a low 18291 and Nifty 5534. This gap holds more significance because a breach of this gap will signal the end of the current rally. If we consider the entire rally from low of Sensex 15135 and Nifty 4531 to a high of Sensex 20203 and Nifty 6111, then the retracement levels for the Sensex will be 18267-17669-17071 and 5507-5321-5134 for the Nifty. If we consider the intermittent rally from the low of Sensex 15748 and Nifty 4770 to a high of Sensex 20203 and Nifty 6111, then the relevant correction levels for that will be at Sensex 18501-17976-17450 and

Market Scan

:::: INDEX LEVELS ::::

S3 NIFTY 5260 SENSEX 17575 S2 5332 17884 S1 5447 18182 Close 5553 18450 R1 5663 18760 R2 5754 19060 R3 5863 19378

5599-5441-5282 for the Nifty. On closer inspection we find that the 38.2% Retracement level of the entire rally i.e. Sensex 18267 and Nifty 5507 is very close to starting point of the Bullish Rising Gap (Sensex 18284 and Nifty 5526) and 50% of Intermittent rally i.e. Sensex 17976 and Nifty 5441 is very close to the lower end of the Bullish Gap (Sensex 18062 and Nifty 5447); thus forming a strong support zone between Sensex 18284 - 17976 and Nifty 5526 5441. Both Sensex and Nifty had completed a Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, the targets for which were Sensex 18519 and Nifty 5519. But three weeks back, both the indices have formed a larger Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern and the targets according to this pattern are Sensex

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8th April to 14th April 2013

17250 and Nifty 5204. This is secondary pattern which has evolved from the smaller primary Head and Shoulders pattern. If Sensex were to close above 19754 and Nifty above 5971, then both Bearish Head and Shoulders patterns will stand negated. MACD continues with its Sell signal besides being negative. ROC too is negative and continues with its Sell signal. RSI (32) too continues to show increase in bearish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator is in Sell mode as %K (08) is below %D, besides being oversold. MFI (38) is under Sell mode and signals money outflow. ADX has moved higher to 26, suggesting that the current down trend is now strong. The Directional Indicators continue in a Sell mode +DI continues to be below -DI. OBV continues in Sell mode besides making a lower top lower bottom formation. Majority of the Oscillators are suggesting bearishness to continue in the short term. The Nifty O.I. PCR has reduced to 0.77. The lower value suggests that the Put writers must have suffered losses and as a result Put writing has reduced. If O.I.PCR falls further, then it can reach oversold conditions, from where a bounce-back can be expected. For the current series, highest Open interest build up has shifted to 5700 Call and 5500 Put. This suggests that the market expects a trading range for the Nifty with support at 5500 and resistance around 5700 levels. Trendline Support for the Sensex is at 17897. Trendline Resistance for the Sensex is at 18915. Trendline Support for the Nifty is at 5334. Trendline Resistance for the Nifty falls at 5700. For the week ahead, Sensex will find Support at 18182-17884-17575 and will find Resistance at 1876019060-19378. For the week ahead, Nifty will find Support at 5447-5332-5260 and will find Resistance at 5663-57545863.

BUY.... BUY....BUY
Co. Name Delta Corp. Welspun Corp. Vimal Oil Mangalore Ch. Guj. Alkalies Bajaj Corp. Fairfield Atlas Mah. Seamless BHEL Code 532848 532144 519373 530011 530001 533229 520145 500265 500103 Price 50 56 97 42 165 236 186 207 177

TIPS OF THE WEEK

Co. Name Everest Ind. IGL B.F. Utilities CIPLA Indusind Bank NESCO J & K Bank Godrej Con. Polson Ltd. Code 508906 532514 532430 500087 532187 505355 532209 532424 507645 Price 202 301 258 386 400 773 1173 780 1403

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Gloom All Round !!!

Bazar.com

(Fakhri H. Sabuwala)
E-mail: fakhrisabuwala@hotmail.com

Markets are the first ones to signal the distress in the economy and the movement this week is simply just that. The times when the international movements like Cyprus crisis or N Korean nuclear threat are dominant, the world markets may hardly find an equilibrium to balance themselves. In wake of these the political crisis at home may worsen our economic situation and widen the fiscal and current account risks . The impact of initial negative FII figures is showing and a greater outflow can accelerate the pain at Dalal street. Beginning last Tuesday the FII net figures are in negative and are progressively rising. The impact of this is visible on the Sensex and Nifty and such an impact is despite the "keep the faith" talk by PM and Rahul Gandhi at the CII meet. It seems the benchmark may see further erosion in coming days and weeks as the FII support may be absent and withdrawal on. The fundamentals do not support the prices and the politicians do not allow breathing space to the sentiment. The noteworthy developments at the market are as under: (1) Automobiles pass through a tough time: A free fall of sales of vehicles in February did not stop there. March hit another record low with the overall car sales touching negative growth for the entire fiscal, the first in a decade. The prevalent glum macroeconomic environment , uncertain fuel price and rising interest rates have taken a toll, constraining the customers to defer car purchases. Such a poor off take has been despite the historic high discounts of over 10% to 15%. (2) Novartis order may change contours of pharma MNCs: The Supreme court on Monday rejected pharma giant Novartis's plea to preserve its patent over life saving drug, GILVEC, drawing a huge sigh of relief from thousands of patients in India and dozens of developing countries as the fear of an almost 15 fold escalation in drug cost receded. This may be the biggest setback for MNC pharma companies which have been denied patent protection for series of life saving drugs in recent years. Such an order may hit innovation as it comes as a big blow to MNCs ability to sell lucrative medicines in the country. The main beneficiaries of this order will be companies like CIPLA, NATCO PHARMA, SUN PHARMA which already The statistical details of Year on Year markets GILVEC at a fraction of the figures are given hereunder to give a plain price at which Novartis markets. Such idea on the state of affairs in this segment an order may establish India as the "pharmacy of the world". Co. March March Growth (3) AMBANI brothers signs a deal at (No. of Unit) 2012 2013 % niece's wedding at Antilla............. A perfect frame of a happy family was Hero Moto 528290 468283 -11.35 enacted when Mukesh decided to use Honda 220487 252773 14.64 Anil's optic fibre network for his telecom TVS Motor 160736 143239 -14.94 ventures. This cooperation may be the Yamaha 29819 35782 20 beginning of a lot more sharing between the two in coming months and years. The Hyundai 39122 33858 -13.5 movement in RIL displayed the burial of Tata Motors 36984 12347 -67 enemity between the two. (4) EDU stocks rally: All fool's day General Motors 10558 9006 -14.94 on 01 April was the day when most of Ford 9026 5271 -41.61 the education stocks rallied up to 24%. Toyota Kirloskar 19542 18220 7 WOW!!!! CORE EDUCATION, NIIT, Renault 1005 8232 71.9 EVERON, APTECH and MT M&M 22961 25847 13 EDUCARE need a re look for the year belongs to education

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Chart Buster

By Talaksi Gosar
(Mumbai)

Fear-stricken FIIs turn into net sellers, chop 385 points off Sensex Except technical rallies, markets have little scope of turning bullish
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers of equities on the Indian stock bourses week and pulled the BSE Sensex down by 386 points to close the eventful week that was. The FIIs started selling Indian company stocks on worries generated due to multiple negative factors, including political uncertainty and a likely war between South and North Korea. The increasing current account deficit was yet another point of worry for both the government of India and the FIIs as it continued to take a toll on the value of the Indian currency in the currency market. The FIIs that earned a fame of net buyers all throughout the year 2012 and also 2013 and continued to buy till Tuesday of the last week turned net sellers from Wednesday and off-loaded a chunk from their holdings in the Indian companies. The total change in the stance of the FIIs caused small and big individual investors also turn into net sellers. Such selling was more in small and mid-cap scrips that plunged drastically down. These individual investors were also of the opinion that the political uncertainty might bring the Loksabha elections early, may be in September-October this year instead of the scheduled time in April-May, 2014. They also worried about the poll verdict as in the absence of any wave in favour or disfavour of any particular party, the new government would also be unstable and the economic reforms would be delayed further, Earlier in the preceding weeks, the numbers pertaining to the sales of the automobile companies, cement despatches, core sector production, purchase managers' index (PMI) etc. turned out to be negative and depressing for the stock market sentiments. The current accout deficit increased to a last few years' high. This really caused worries in the minds of the FIIs and that made them to sell significantly in the Indian stock markets. Besides this, they also eyed other safe destinations for parking their huge funds. The recovering US and Japanese economies and their stock markets were also new investment destinations for them. It was for the first time that the Indian stock markets were worried over selling by FIIs as the chances of the Indian economy improving and GDP growing to over eight per cent looked remote to both the FIIs and the Indian Government as narrated by none other than the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh himslef. While addressing the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) last week, the Prime Minister had said that the current GDP is five per cent and his government was trying hard to enhance it to eight per cent but with the political situation being highly fluid, it would be very difficult to achive this target. The same organisation was addressed by the vice-president, Congress, Rahul Gandhi whose words though, aspiring, failed to invoke confidence in the industrialists and also the stock market investors. However, all these external and macro level worries are most likely to subside once the corporate number season kickstarts from April 12, when Infosys would come out with quarterly as well as the yearly numbers. In case the corporate numbers season commences on a positive note, the markets may not fall further down and instead find support at the lows seen during the last week. The BSE Sensex is most likely to hold the last week's low of 18389 in normal situation, i.e. in the absence of any untoward incident in any place in the world including Asia and India. Since the prices of industials and finacials have gone steeply down in the last few days bargain hunting cannot be ruled out even by the FIIs and the domestic institutional investors. Therefore, the individual investors who have not sold their shares when prices were really high, need not sell now when they are significanlty down as they are most likely to stage a technical rally in the new week.

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STONE INDIA-Dly .31/07/12-05/04/13 B-522085 Price E M A(12) E M A(48) E M A(100) TREND F 05/04/13 41.00 40.90 40 35 30.20 30 25 20 15.25 15 10 O H L C V E E E 15.40 16.95 15.40 16.50 1.48 15.96 20.80 24.49

8th April to 14th April 2013

14.00 O N D 13 F M A

12

Stone India :- Stone India a company whose business activity is reportedly connected mainly with the Indian Railways was trading at Rs 15.25 in August, 2012, then rose to a high of Rs 41.00 when the markets staged a small rally. However, the rally being a weak one, petered down immediately and the share corrected upto a low of Rs 30.20. Buying in the nature of bargain hunting helped it to once again jump up but it could go upto only Rs 40.90 and could not cross the previous peak of Rs 41.00. At Rs 40.90, the share made an double top pattern that once again brought it down and reach a low of Rs 14.00 a week ago. This being nearly the level that matched with the previous bottom of Rs 15.25 attracted

buyers and the share then did not fall further down and instead tended to look up and close the week at Rs 16.50, and thereby above its shor term moving average. This being a first bullish sign, might take the share further up provided the general markets do not fall further. Those investors who have a plan to invest and block their funds for at least a year and a half may buy this issue. Ahluwalia Construction Company :- Ahluwalia Copnstruction Company though a construction and infrastructure development company, is a little known company so far as the stock markets are concerned. Even then its share had reached a high of Rs 400.00 during the peak of the unprecedented stock market boom in 2007-08. The bull market then turned into a severe bear market and this scrip fell to a low of Rs 25.20 in just eight months of reaching an all-time high of Rs 400.00 The markets then turned bullish and this share too rose to Rs 245.95 and once again entered a bearish phase in line with the general downtrend. The downtrend in this share continued till it reached a low of Rs 21.20 o Thursday of the last week. The share, however came out of the grip
AHLUWALIA CO-Wkly.31/08/07-05/04/13 B-532811 TREND Price E M A(12) E M A(48) E M A(100) F 05/04/13 400.00 400 O H 350 L C 300 V E E 250 E 200 150 100 50 25.20 21.20 -0 XS 0708M S 09M S 10M S 11M S 12M S 13 22.05 33.65 22.05 32.55 17.57 29.03 43.10 66.58

245.95

of the bearish trend when it jumped up the following day, i.e., Friday of the last week upto a high of Rs 33.65 before closing at Rs 32.55 and thereby closed above its short term moving average. This being a primary bullish bre ak-out might take the share further up. The share is therefore, ecommended for buying at technical corrections to be held for nearly a year and a half. Nitco Tiles :- Nitco Tiles is an average company in the competetive NITCO TILES-Wkly.25/05/07-05/04/13 B-532722 TREND Price E M A(12) E M A(48) E M A(100) F 05/04/13 tiles manufacturing industry. The company hardly finds its place in the 350 336.85 O 12.10 H 13.79 list of the stocks for buying by stock market experts. However, today it 300 L 11.90 C 13.53 is recommended fo buying for the reason that it is available at such a V 13.93 250 E 16.57 E 24.22 low level of price that the chances of losing money are less than gain200 E 33.81 ing from holding it for a couple of years. The share had reached a high 150 of Rs 336.85 during the climax of the unprecedented bull market in 100 98.80 2007-08 and fell to a low of Rs 21.00 when the markets went bust and 50 21.00 fell to their lows in March, 2009. A technical rally that helped most of 11.45 -0 07O08J N 09M O10J N 11J O12J O13 the scrips rise from their March, 2009 lows took this share upto a high of Rs 98.80 but this uptrend, when over and replaced by a downtrend took this share as low as Rs 11.45 on Thursday of the last week. On Friday, the last trading, however, the share received a support at Rs 11.90 and rallied upto Rs 13.79 before closing at Rs 13.53 and close just near its short term moving average at Rs 13.93. A small further rise in its market quote can help it close above its short term moving average and that being a bullish signal might help the share jump up in the days to come. The share is therefore suggested to be picked up for short term trading gains.

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10

Stock Wave

SarveshAshokTrivedi

www.chartsanketstock.com

(Mumbai) (Mob) 09820728124

Market is oversold Cautious approach on rise

BSE Index (18450.23) :- The market is on downward trend from top of 19754.60. It shows oversold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis. On upward movement, beyond 18723 it can reach to 18800, 18875 with 19060 as resisting level. On downward movement, below 19255, it can go down to 18110, 18800, 17890, 17770 and even 19650 and in worst situation may touch 17275 level. Nifty Future (5572.05) :- From top of 5990.10 it shows downward movement. It shows oversold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis. On upward movement, beyond 5666 it can go up to 5688, 5698, 5717, 5732, 5763 with 5772 as resisting level. On downward movement below 5555, it may get support at 5520. If it breaks the barrier then can plunge to 5450, 5410 and even 5380. Bank Nifty (11142.40) :- From top of 12294.25, it is on downward movement. It shows oversold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis.On upward movement, beyond 11335, it can go up to 11532 with 11636 as resisting level. On downward movement below 11055 it may get support at 10975. If it breaks barrier then can plunge to 10900, 10820, 10740 and even 10670 level. ICICI Bank (997.95) :- From major top of 1231 it is on downward movement. It shows oversold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis. On upward movement, beyond 1030, it can go up to 1050 with 103 as resisting level. On downward movement, below 997 it can go down to 970 and from that 940 to 910 and in worst situation may be in range of 885 to 860. SBI (2065.30) :- From top of 2272.50, the share is on downward movement. It shows oversold position on daily basis, while highly oversold position on weekly and monthly basis. On upward movement, beyond 2098, 2157 may be resisting level. On downward movement, below 2025, it may come down to 2000 with support at 1950. Below this, it can go down to 1860 to even 1815. Bharti Airtel (270.25) :- The share is on downward movement from top of 334.25. It shows oversold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis. On upward movement, beyond 280, 295 can be resisting level. On downward movement, below 270 it may go down to 263 and even see range of 245 to 240.

Golden quote :You Can never plan the future by the past

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Dilip Davda
e-mail dilip_davda@rediffmail.com

Experts Eye

Having bids good-bye to fiscal 2012-13 with around 8.4% gains in indiBest Buy ces, fiscal 2013-14 marks positive start with firt two sessions closing in Excel Crop., green, but gives up from mid week as dirty politics at centre forces not only Igarshi Motors, local traders, but also the FIIS to turned net seller and thus we witnessed a Fedders Lloyd very poor first week of new fiscal. Draught in certain parts of the country leading to water shortages and concern for power as well as unseasonal monsoon in certain parts adding worry for agricultural sector. Poor job data from US and continuing worry over debt crisis for Eurozone also impacted the global sentiment. Poor PMI at last 17 month's low raised fear of further slow down and many auto and cement sector industry posting lower than expected dispatches for the month of March 2013 kept many fancy counters on selling spree. Thus in the week of disturbances at the centre, S&P BSE Sensex moved in the range of 19060.51-18389.29 and NSE Nifty between 5754.60-5534.70 Market Watch :- New fiscal marks positive opening on Monday and with high volatile drama, indices manages to close in green to mark the hat trick of positive closing in a row. BSE Sensex gained 28.98 points to close at 18864.75 and NSE Nifty scored 21.85 points to end the day at 5704.40. Despite poor HSBC PMI data and poor growth of Core sector, select buying on fancy counters helped indices to close in green. RIL took the lead and got support from select counters in Capital Goods, Power, Pharma and Realty sector. Pharma counters gained on reports of verdict going against Novartis in a patent case in Supreme Court. Small and Mid cap counters remained in limelight on value buying. Metal counters eased on poor PMI and Core Sector growth data. Core Education lead A group as the gainer for the day. Repco Home Finance got listed on BSE and NSE and disappointed investor with lack luster debut and closure at discount to offer price on debut day. With flat opening on negative mood on Tuesday short covering helped indices to gain sizably for the day. BSE Sensex scored 176.20 points to end the day at 19040.95 and NSE Nifty gained 43.70 points to close at 5748.10, thus while Sensex gained 19K plus, Nifty just managed to close around 5.75K. RIL and RCom signing JV for 4G move acted as filler to the market mood and under leadership of Reliance group, indices gained spreading buying in fancy counters of pharma, power and capital goods, metal and banking sectors. Reliance Commu lead A group as the gainer for the day. On Wednesday too, markets opened on a sluggish note and lost heavily as the day progressed. BSE Sensex lost 239.31 points to close at 18801.64 and NSE Nifty marked deficit of 75.20 points to end the day at 5672.90. Last 17 month's lower growth of Service sector PMI dampen the mood and mounting tension at the centre added fuel to the fire. Realty, Capital Goods, Auto, Oil and Gas, Metal, Banking sector counters met with selling spree and got support from market heavy weight RIL that too eased on profit bookings at every rise. Adani Power lead A group as the gainer for the day. After poor start on Thursday, indices continued to drift lower on heavy sell out as even FIIS turned During the week Div. net sellers amidst mounting uncertainties at the Centre and early elections. BSE Sensex posted loss of 291.94 points to end the day at 18509.70 and announcement NSE Nifty lost 98.15 points to close at 5574.75. Poor economic numbers GM Breweries (25%), Kitex Garment (80%) etc. from US and alarm of early elections by opposition parties forced one and all to press sell button. IT counters lead the doom and got support from Bonus Issue Meet fancy counters in Banking, Power, Metal, Realty as even Hedge Funds Centrum Capital deferred bonus turned net sellers. Business sentiment got turmoil in general and fear of cut issue meet to 18.04.13.

Blame it on to dirty politics that mars the mood

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in expenditure rose. However, Sugar counters gained on the hopes of likely decontrol in ensuing meet of GoM. Dr Reddy's Lab lead A group as the gainer for the day. Lakhotia Poly got listed on BSE SME and after narrow upside move closed at the level of offer price. Poor beginning was seen on Friday as well and indices continued to slide further marking hat trick of fall and finally closing the week in a negative terrain. BSE Sensex closed at 18450.23 with a loss of 59.47 points and NSE Nifty ended the day at 5553.25 with a slide of 21.50 points. Thus both the indices are now at their crucial lower bottom and may witness more erosion going forward in absence of any corrective steps by concerned parties. Poor Yen helped Maruti to surge in gloomy market. Other counters that jumped on bargain hunting included Motherson Sumi, Mcleod Russel, Tata Steel, GMR Infra, Sterlite Ind etc. Indices marked last 26 week's low in intraday trades. While sugar counters sweetened on reports of partial decontrol, realty and auto counters gained on fresh buying support at lower levels. Positive development helps counters like DLF, Titagarh Wagon, Essar Oil surge on value buying. Indraprastha Gas lead A group as the gainer for the day. GCM Securities got listed on BSE SME and gave shining performance on debut with closing at hefty premium to offer price with a mere volume of just 36000 shares and reminded one and all the re-run of history of Inventure Growth. In the first week of fiscal 2013-14, S & P BSE Sensex posted net weekly loss of 385.54 points and NSE Nifty marked net weekly deficit of 129.30 points as even FIIs turned net seller on mounting uncertainties on economic reforms and fear of early elections. Although Crude Oil eased to quote below 93.4$ a barrel, weak rupee at Rs. 54.80 a dollar washed away the impact. Now that we have the Q4 number season round the corner, it will bring stock specific movements in the market. Ofcourse, before that market will wait for inflation data that will have the immediate impact. As usual, global movement will continue to impress the mood on global happenings. Amidst such uncertainties for centre and fear of election, it appears that stage is set for testing lower bottoms BSE Sensex may move in the range of 17300-19300 and NSE Nifty between 53505800. Chances of market opening in red on Monday is likely as global markets are trading in red. Scrip Watch :- Investors are advised to keep a watch on the following counters. Excel Crop (BSE Code: 532511) :- This agri input manufacturing company has posted improved performance. It has earned net profit of Rs 18.98 crore on a turnover of Rs. 580.66 crore for first nine months of the current fiscal against net profit of Rs. 15.69 crore on a turnover of Rs. 496.56 crore for corresponding previous period. For the fiscal 2011-12 it posted net profit of Rs. 15.61 crore on a turnover of Rs. 677.16 crore. Thus first three quarters bottom line has crossed entire previous year's levels. As on 31.12.12, equity capital of Rs. 5.50 crore is supported by free reserves of Rs. 234 crore plus making it a bonus candidate as well. It can be accumulated for medium to long term rewards on declined levels. Scrip hovers around Rs. 156.50 against 52 week High/Low of Rs 242/85, FV Rs. 5. Igarashi Motors (BSE Code: 517380) :- This automotive component manufacturing company has earned net profit of Rs. 16.38 crore on a turnover of Rs. 214.24 crore for 3Qs of current fiscal against net profit of Rs. 9.92 crore on a turnover of Rs. 194.15 crore for corresponding previous period. For the fiscal 2011-12, it posted net profit of Rs. 16.54 crore on a turnover of Rs. 268.53 crore. Thus it's top and bottom line has seen improvements. Equity capital of Rs.20.42 crore supported by free reserves of Rs. 97 crore makes it a safe bet. It is worth accumulating at every decline for medium to long term rewards. Scrip is quoting around Rs. 54.55 against 52 week High/Low of Rs. 92/45, FV Rs. 10. Fedders Lloyd (BSE Code: 500139) :- This well diversified company engaged in environment control system, steel structure and engineering and power projects has posted net profit of Rs 18.20 crore on a turnover of Rs. 446.15 crore for the first nine months of the current fiscal against net profit of Rs. 17.36 crore on a turnover of Rs. 427.69 crore for corresponding previous period. Thus it marked marginal rise in top and bottom line despite sluggish trends in the sectors. For the fiscal 2011-12, it posted net profit of Rs. 44.66 crore on a turnover of Rs. 892.31 crore. As on 31.12.12 equity capital of Rs. 30.77 crore is supported by free reserves of Rs. 260 crore plus makes it a safe bet. Scrip is worth considering for medium to long term rewards. It quotes around Rs. 34.20 against 52 week High/Low of Rs. 68/32, FV Rs. 10. [Disclaimer: The author has no long or short position on any of the above counters.] (Email: dilip_davda@rediffmail.com]

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Market Rahasya (C.M. Patil : Info@marketrahasya.com)

NIFTY: Pullback terminated, Next Target 5440

I was expecting a pullback from 5600 to at least around 5850. However NIFTY Index could barely manage to reach up to 5750 and pullback got terminated. Generally 200 day moving average acts as strong support/resistance and index or stock tussle around these averages before it makes or breaks. However, on Thursday morning Index broke 200 day EMA as well as SMA effortlessly with big gap down opening. By Friday it made a low of 5535 and closed just below all major support lines. This is definitively a sign of weakness indicating further fall. INFTY index is now ready to fall and achieve our 2nd target of 5440. Let's understand why 5440 is why so critical! . What's Next? Technically speaking there is a gap zone between 5447 and 5526, which was formed in September 2012. Gap means not trading happened in this price range. Going forward this Gap zone is considered to be a strong support zone. Therefore NIFTY index can find a support anywhere in the range of this 80 odd points. Generally it is observed that eventually these open gaps are filled. Hence there is a high possibility that index will fall around 5440 level to fill this gap. Also as on Friday, Options writer were switching their positions in Put Options directly from 5600 to 5400 strike price. This indicates that options writers are not sure whether Index will hold 5500 level in the coming week. And as you know Option Writer are proved to be right majority of the time. So, expect NIFTY index to break 5500 level in the coming week and to fill a gap at 5447. Just to remind you once again, I have already talked about Fibonacci retracements level for NIFTY index in my previous articles. At 5600, index achieved its first target of 38.2% retracement level of the entire rally from 4700 to 6111. Now the next target is at 50% retracement level which is 5440. Once again expect some sharp bounce back in NIFTY as soon as this level is reached. NIFTY traders can take full advantage by covering short positions at around 5450 and going long for some quick and handsome gains.

[Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the analyst and are not recommendations. Analyst may have holdings in these scripts.]

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scrip watch
Hindustan Zinc (Rs. 116.00) (Code : 500188) : Hindustan Zincs share price has corrected from Rs 140 in January to Rs 120 currently. At current levels, it translates to a market capitalisation of over Rs 51,000 crore and PE of seven, based on estimated FY14 earnings.Valuations look more attractive, given that the company is not only debt-free but also has huge cash and cash equivalent of Rs 19,300 crore (as of December 2012), almost Rs 46 per share or 38 per cent of its current share price. Excluding this, the core business PE works out to just 4.5 times, compelling for one of the worlds largest integrated and low-cost producers of zinc, lead and silver (its return on equity in the core business is a whopping 64 per cent).The company is expanding its mining capacity with an annual capital expenditure of about $250 million or about Rs 1,400 crore over the next six years, totalling Rs 8,400 crore. Buy. Godrej Consumer (Rs. 780.00) (Code : 532424) : Godrej Consumer is a leading FMCG company primarily focused on personal care, hair care, soap and home insecticides products. Company launched five products in FY2013, including cream hair colours positioned above its powders and below Garnier Colour Naturals, Aer range of home and car air freshners and relaunched Cinthol range with shower gels. The market response has been good and the company continues to gain market share in soaps. Shower gels is still a miniscule market in India, but is an emerging category, with a potential of becoming big over the next few years. Godrej, which also counts Godrej No 1 among its top brands, is the second largest player in soaps (volume as well as value market share).The fall in prices of palm oil, a key ingredient in soaps will benefit the company. Inspite of that, the company may consider product price hikes in the second or third quarter of FY2014. The stock is trading at about Rs.770. Buy at every decline. J&K Bank (Rs. 1173.00) (Code : 532209) : Jammu & Kashmir Bank is one of the PSU bank which is having strong balance sheet. On one hand many banks, including many PSUs, are facing difficulties in lending and advancing, J&K Bank is making its balance sheet stronger. Its CASA is 39.2 per cent. Its NPA is almost negligible, just 0.14 per cent at the end of December quarter. Jammu and Kashmir Bank had posted net profit of Rs.290 crore which is 36% higher YoY (7% QoQ). Core operating parameters were healthy, with NIM at 4.1%, loan growth of 20% YoY. For the first nine months of FY13, bank reported total income of Rs. 4,785 crore and net interest income of Rs. 1,682 crore. PAT for 9mFY13 already exceeded full year PAT of previous fiscal, being Rs. 805 crore for 9mFY13, resulting in EPS of Rs. 166. Its adjusted book value per share (BVPS) is Rs. 1,000.19, as of 31st December 2012. Thus, with current market cap of Rs. 5,700 based on yesterdays closing price of Rs. 1,174 on BSE, stock is being discounted at PBV of 1.17x, based on historical numbers. Accumulate.

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Market Tips
Everest Industries (Rs. 202.00) (Code : 508906) : Everest Industries operates in the main businesses of steel buildings and building materials. Steel buildings include pre-engineered buildings (PEBs) and smart-steel buildings for industrial, commercial and domestic sector. Everest offers a complete range like Roofing, Ceilings, Walls, Floors, Cladding, Doors, and Pre-Engineered Steel Buildings for the Industrial, Commercial and Residential Sectors.Interestingly, the stock has been holding Rs.200 level even during some big corrections in the market since last six months. Most of the times, the stock has bounced back from Rs.202 level. At this time, the stock is almost at this level. Grab this opportunity and make profit of at least 10 to 15 per cent within a span of three to four months. Godrej Properties (Rs. 530.00) (Code : 533150) : Godrej Properties Ltd has entered into a new joint venture (JV) project in Undri, Pune, to develop a 1.5 million sq. ft residential project.The project, spread over 31 acres, will offer almost 1.5 million sq. ft of saleable area, comprising one, two and three bedroom apartments.Godrej Properties follows a JV model for most of its projects, entering into agreements with respective landowners. In the Pune project, the developer will be entitled to 40% of the profit. It has also announced a number of projects, in Mumbai and Ahmedabad. It has launched phase 5 of its township project Godrej Garden City in Ahmedabad. The new phase of the township project will offer two and three bedroom apartments at prices starting at Rs 35 lakhs. The stock has not corrected in a big way with overall negative market. Company is almost debt free which is a rare case in real estate sector. Buy. Emami (Rs. 603.00) (Code : 531162) : Emami is one of the leading FMCG player in the country. It has strong product portfolio with very strong brands. All its power brands have been reporting strong and consistent performance despite various challenges of the macro-economic environment and input price pressures.Emami had reported a net profit of Rs 115 crore in the third quarter of the current financial year compared to Rs 94.5 crore, registering a jump of 21.69%.The firm clocked net sales of Rs 548.65 crore in the quarter under review compared to Rs 452.36 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The stock is defying overall market trend and is going up. There is also buzz that the company might make some positive announcements including bonus shares, in near future. Buy. Buy more at decline.

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SMART TIPS
Tilaknagar Industries (Rs. 60.00) (Code: 507205)
It has captured around 60% market share in South India and its flagship brand Courrier Napolean Green is also setting up its footprints in new states like Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Sikkim and Pondicherry. From 2011 to 2014, the company is expected to grow at 22% of CAGR in sales and 20% of CAGR in net profit. The company has clocked net profit of Rs13.04 crore with 18.35% growth and income of Rs146.59 crore with 22.62% growth. During the quarter, the company achieved EPS of 1.08. At current price, the share is traded at 15.18% of estimated income of 2013. The share can be included in portfolio on downward trend in medium to long term.

RCF (Rs.38.00) (Code: 524230)

Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RFC) mainly operates in two segments namely fertilizers and industrial products. The company's product portfolio includes Methanol Sodium Nitrite ammonium biocarb, Methalamines and dimethlamine. The company has achieved book value of 39.33 on market cap of Rs2132.28 crore. In December quarter, the company's net profit increased by 37.13% to reach Rs73.98 crore and its sales decreased by 2.68% to reach Rs1560.73 crore. The company has achieved basic EPS of 1.34 on equity of Rs551.69 crore. The share with face value of Rs10 achieved a 52 week low at Rs35.25 and high at Rs66.95. At present the share is being traded at lower range making it worth buying for long term investment.

Transport Corporation of India (Rs. 53.00) (Code: 532349)

It is one of the leading integrated logistics service provider company which is providing services at more than 3000 destinations with network of 1000 offices and 4,000 trained employees. One of the leading surface transport companies of Asia has achieved book value of 49.98 on market cap of Rs391.66 crore. In December quarter, the company clocked net profit of Rs11.34 crore on income of Rs491.91 crore. The company's equity stands at Rs14.57 crore on which it has achieved EPS of 1.56 crore. The company has paid 20% dividend. The company's performance makes it worth considering for investment in downward trend in long term.

Sanwaria Agro (Rs. 28.00) (Code: 519260)

The company set up in 1991 is engaged in agro soyabean oil and other minor oil seed production. With commencement of 200 tonne daily capacity crushing solvent extraction plant it has become one of the leading companies in the sector. The company sales edible oil under brand name of 'Sulabh', 'Narmda' and 'Sanwaria'. In the December quarter, the company's net profit surged 109.56% to Rs8.55 crore, while its sales increased by 10.82% to reach Rs364.03 crore. The company's market cap is Rs1026 crore on which it has achieved book value of 5.48 crore. The share made a 52 week high at Rs49.50 and a low at Rs22.35. Hold the share on downward trend.

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Smart super duper

Apcotex Industries (Rs212.00) (Code: 523694)
Apcotex Industries is one of the leading companies manufacturing Performance Emulsion Polymers. In the December, the company's net profit stood at Rs3.34 crore with 30.98% growth, while its sale grew by 1.68% to reach Rs60.97 crore. During the quarter, the company clocked quarterly EPS of 6.39. In 2012, the company received Total productive maintenance excellence award from Japan Institute of Plant Maintenance. By 2014, the company is expected to grow 10% CAGR. It can be included in portfolio in phased manner on downward trend.

Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals (Rs.165.00) (Code: 530001)

Gujarat Alkaies and Chemicals is one of the leading caustic soda manufacturing company with production capacity of 429000 metric ton. During the quarter, the company clocked net profit growth of 28.53% to take it at Rs33.40 crore. The company is going to start 200000 TPA caustic soda project and 100000 TPA chlorothon project in association with Nalco in couple of years with an investment tune to Rs2600 crore including diversification and expansion. Company's sodium chloride project at Dahej is about to complete. From 2011 to 2014, the company's net sales and net profit are expected to grow at 10% and 29% of CAGR respectively. The share is worth considering for including in portfolio at downward movement for long term.

FIEM Industries (Rs.188) (Code: 532786)

FIEM Industries is a leading automotive lighting and signaling equipment and rear view mirror manufacturing company. The company has wide experience of 35 years of supplying products to two-three wheelers industry. In December quarter, the company's net profit increased by 31.11% and income grew by 9.31%. At current market price, the company's share is being traded at 9.53 times of estimated income of 2013 and 8.35 time at estimated income of 2014. Between 2011 and 2014, the company's sales and net profit are expected to grow at 16% and 36% of CAGR respectively. Investors may buy the share at target rate of Rs225 for medium to long term.

Supreme Infra (Rs212.00) (Code: 532904)

The infrastructure company has Rs56.50 crore orders on hand. Compared to Rs25.01 crore profit clocked in December 2011 quarter, this year the company registered net profit of Rs35.92 crore. In the similar period, its net sales increased from Rs410.58 crore to Rs550.28 crore. From 2011 to 2014, the company is expected to register net sales and profit after tax CAGR growth of 38% and 23% respectively. It has achieved quarterly EPS of 21.46. At current price share is being traded at PE ratio of 3.10 of estimated income of 2013. The investors are advised to buy and hold the share for medium term with target of Rs247 to Rs250.

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A.J. Diwan (Mumbai)
E-mail : divanconsultancy@rediffmail.com

18

Diwan-E-Khas

Market is taking Support at 5540 ?

On Friday market did take support at 5540 level. it breached its earlier low of 5605. There is a hope to technical analyst of support. But have glance at Friday's closing of world markets. All hopes may vanish and it might open below 5540 level. Hansang d 610. BSE down 56 Germany down 159 London d 94 doe d 40 NASDAQ d 21 nifty d 21 snp d 6. Only Japan was up by 191 points after one time high of 450 points, japan went up due to monetary policy announced. BSE index touched high of 18528 and low of 18391 to close at 18450.in last here session it lost over 500 points. Maruti rose 7% due to import of auto parts will be cheaper. Thanks to Japan policy announced. it may give edge to maruti over competitors as either it can reduced price or increase bottom line.ihn any dip maruti is good buy. Fiiis figure turned negative after very long time. This affected the sentiment of the market. last Thursday it sold share worth 248 crores.in nifty also fiis are sellers. On Friday Reliance and HUL supported market as it did not fall index wise.easle three figure drop was possible.itc is fascine resistance on higher level. Reliance and ADAG group joint venture did not help markets, as feeling is generated that rs.1200 cr is very small for both companies. ADAG shares are not sustaining at higher level. In London LME price went affected some short covering on metal stocks in India. Sesa, sterlite merger on card.sesa is not getting much benefit. Next week we have Infosys result which may help market to give dirction.last Friday in us it shares were down.

Investment Ideas

- Pratit Patel (9998881112)

www.dkwealthadvisory.com

Hot buy of the week for investors

CENLUB INDUSTRIES LTD

(BSE Code: 522251) (Close: 28.75)
Company has equity of just Rs.4.12crore while it has huge reserve of around Rs.7.22crore and it has a book value of Rs.27.52 per share. Company has declared net profit of Rs.1.72crore in first nine months of FY13 against net profit of Rs.1.57crore (Net profit zoomed 9.55% in first nine months of FY13). It has shown EPS of Rs.4.17 in first nine months of FY13 & it may show EPS of Rs.6.79 in FY13. Current level stock is available at forward P/E of just 4.3. This is regular dividend paying company and it has paid 25% dividend for FY12. At the current share price, this results in a dividend yield of 8.55%, which is highly attractive. Investors can buy this stock with stop loss of Rs.25. On the upper side stock will zoom up to Rs.36---38 levels in coming days while it has potential to kiss Rs.54+ levels in medium to long term.

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Smart Chat
Market may bounce back before Infy results Mark Mobium more optimistic about equity market FIIs made investors April Fool ETF sold out 3 billion dollars worth shares from emerging markets, 28.7 crore dollars shares from Indian equities Inflation our concern, Deflation Japans concern
Harshad : Bears have been in full command over market. Sensex tumbled another 386 points. Ketan : In earlier two weeks, sensex had fallen 948 points. So, now, it is down more than 1300 points in last three points. Bhansali : FIIs have stopped their buying. Rather to say, they are now on selling spree. They made investors April Fool. Harshad : How ? Bhansali : FIIs were net seller on first day of new financial year. But then they were net seller for all the four trading sessions. Harshad : On other hand, DIIs exactly did opposite to FIIs. DIIs were net seller on 1st April, while they were net buyer for rest of the days. Ketan : Exchange Traded Funds(ETF) have sold in equities in a big way. They have sold shares worth 3 billion dollars in Emerging Markets. Bhansali : Ya. Out of that, ETFs have sold shares worth 28.7 crore dollars from Indian Equity market. Harshad : Federal Bank, Adani Enterprieses, HDIL, Karnataka Bank, Syndicate Bank, JSW Steel, J&K Bank, etc stocks have been hammered due to these ETFs in last couple of months. Ketan : This is Indian markets tragedy or peculiarity. It is much dependent on foreign funds and when these foreign funds take their money out of our market, we have no saviour except LIC and some other insurance firms which are very small compared to huge selling of FIIs and these ETFs. Bhansali : Our economy is hampered due to high inflation while on other hand, Japanese government is so worried about deflation i.e. more than expected reduced prices. So, Japan has moved toward devaluing its currency Yen. It will have multiple implications on many countries as far as the export is concerned. Harshad : In the US, jobless claims jumped by 28,000 in last week of March. It is the highest claim since November-2012. Ketan : Eurozone is now struggling to come out from Cyprus crisi. So, there are more negatives across the globe. Bhansali : In this time of negative news flow and uncertainty, Mark Mobius has something to say we can say positive. He is much more optimistic about equity market. Harshad : Ya. He came across its own investment portfolio where he had invested money in bonds and other cash. He says it is your Inertia due to which you are not coming out of traditional investment options. It is a big reason why investors are holding bonds and cash instead of stocks.Like many investors, he asked himself that question and concluded, "'Hey, it's time to get into equities.'

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This is the inertia you see and I think that is going to change." In fact, he said, "I called my banker and said 'do more in equities' because it's crazy for me to be sitting on this cash." Ketan : What he experienced with his personal portfolio, Mobius said, is part of a larger trend of investors starting to "wake-up to the reality" that stocks are the only way for them to get real returns on their money. Bhansali : I take some cues from Marks positive views and hope that market will bounce back next week before Infosys quarterly results, which are due on 12th April i.e. Friday. Bhansali : Inflation number for March will also be announced on next Friday. It is likely to be in double digit and more than it was in February. Harshad : Whatever the numbers may be, I think, when everybody is negative about market, the market will do exactly the opposite. It may be my optimism rather than reality, but I think so. Optimism has great strength. It can pull the market up. Ketan : There are reports that Nifty might slip again towards 5200 level. But I think market will bounce back from around this level or may be from around 5500 level. If you are holding shares, you should not sell at this point.

Last Week Sensex & Nifty Moves

NSE Nifty 01-Apr-13 02-Apr-13 03-Apr-13 04-Apr-13 05-Apr-13 Open 5697.35 5701.7 5740.2 5640.65 5568.1 High 5720.95 5754.6 5744.95 5644.45 5577.3 Low 5675.9 5687.15 5650.1 5565.65 5534.7 Close 5704.4 5748.1 5672.9 5574.75 5553.25 Diff 21.85 43.7 -75.2 -98.15 -21.5

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Every Sunday

Net Weekly Loss (-129.30)

BSE Sensex 01/04/2013 02/04/2013 03/04/2013 04/04/2013 05/04/2013 Open 18,890.81 18,863.82 19,034.00 18,731.38 18,493.67 High 18,959.48 19,060.51 19,035.20 18,733.62 18,525.45 Low 18,796.60 18,826.53 18,721.72 18,473.85 18,389.29 Close 18,864.75 19,040.95 18,801.64 18,509.70 18,450.23 Diff 28.98 176.20 -239.31 -291.94 -59.47

ELuMx{uLx
Every Wednesday

Net Weekly Loss (-385.54)

Buy... Buy...
Dhampur Sugar Stone India NITCO Ltd. Suven LIfe Ahluwalia Contra. Peninsula Land Essar Oil Shakthi Sugar Triveni Engg. Dwarikesh Sugar 49.00 16.00 13.00 24.00 32.00 44.00 80.00 23.00 17.00 33.00

Buy on Deep
Dabur India Aurobindo Ph. Oudh Sugar EID Parry Hind. Zinc M & M Fin. Roto Pump MOIL Apcotex Bannari Aman 143.00 157.00 23.00 153.00 116.00 208.00 110.00 228.00 212.00 894.00

Hold
Dr. Reddy M&M Bajaj Fin. Infosys Godrej Prop. L&T Tata Coffee Maruti Wockhardt Ajanta Ph. 1910.00 837.00 755.00 2864.00 530.00 1348.00 1516.00 1405.00 1987.00 767.00

Sell on High
Aanjaney LIfe. Usher Agro Net 4 India Arshiya Int. Tata Chem. ABB Hero Motot Bank of India Crompton Gr. Sail 104.00 40.00 75.00 15.00 311.00 491.00 1478.00 307.00 92.00 61.00

Financial Weekly

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8th April to 14th April 2013

21

Primary Market

Dilip K. Shah

Bad start to new financial year as Repco Home Fin IPO lists at a discount GCM Securities issue has dream listing, lists at 225% premium: Lakhotia Poly lists at par SREI Infras NCD Bond issue opens from April 4
Central government likely to go for buyback to raise Rs. 20,000 crores through Coal India share sale
* Last weeks listing :Repco Home (Code: 535322) :- The shares got listed on April 1 at Rs. 165, i.e. 4 per cent lower than the issue price of Rs. 172. The shares rose to Rs. 176 thereafter only to fall to Rs. 158.05, before finally closing at Rs. 160.85, i.e. at a six per cent discount to the issue price. Lakhotia Poly (Code: 535387) :- As against the issue price of Rs. 35, the shares got listed on BSE SME at Rs. 35.80 on April 4, i.e. at a slight premium. After this, the shares rose marginally to Rs. 35.90, before falling to Rs. 35. The share also closed at Rs. 35, i.e. at the issue price. GCM Securities (Code: 535431) :- On April 5, the issue got listed on the BSE SME platform at Rs. 65, which was 225% higher than the issue price of Rs. 20. The share rose further to touch Rs. 68.25, and closed at the same level. The closing price was 240 per cent higher than the issue price. * Last weeks issues :Opal Luxury :- This issue opened on March 25 and closed on March 28. The offer price of the shares, which are proposed to be listed on the NSE SME, was Rs. 130 to 135. The Rs. 13 crore IPO was rated 4 / 5 by Crisil. The issue was subscribed 1.7 times in the QIP category, 1.58 times in HNI category, and 0.43 times in the retail category. The overall subscription was 1 time. Refund-Allotment Listing :- The refunds of the issue will take place on April 8. There

Neyveli disinvestment through OFS route in two months; but trade unions opposed to move Opal Luxury to list on April 11 12 on NSE SME

Samruddhi to list on April 17 and that of Ashapura on April 18 on BSE SME

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will be full and firm allotment in all categories. The IPO could be listed on NSE SME on April 11 or 12. Ashapura Intimates : - This IPO opened on March 28 and closed on April 4. The issue was priced at Rs. 40 per share. The issue size is Rs. 21 crores, but details of its subscriptions were not immediately available. The refund and allotment in the issue could take place on April 15, while the listing could take place on the BSE SME on April 18. Smruddhi Realty :- The issue was priced at Rs. 12 per share,

JustDial gets SEBI nod for public issue of 95.54 lakh shares NCML seeks SEBI nod for public issue of 60 lakh shares Advanced Enzyme files DRHP with SEBI for Rs. 200 crores public issue

and aimed to raise Rs. 2.60 crores. The issue opened on March 28 and was scheduled to close to April 3, but details of the subscriptions were not immediately available. The refund and allotment could take place on April 13, whereas the listing could take place on BSE SME on April 17. The second week of April could see one listing, and the third week could see two listings. * New Issues this week :SREI Infra Bond Issue :- SREI Infra Finance is an infrastructure sector NBFC. This 23year-old company has a network of 168 offices across the country. The company is also listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company has 30,000 customers and a consolidated AUM of Rs. 33,580 crores. For the nine months ended December 2013, company has registered networth of Rs. 3,359 crores and a net profit of Rs. 194 crores. The issue has been rated AA by CARE and BWR. 30% of the issue size has been reserved for QIBs and HNIs each, whereas 40% (Rs. 10 lakh) is earmarked for retail investors. The bonds will be listed on the BSE. The company is paying interest of 10.50% on the bonds.

Public Issue by Srei Infrastructure Finance Ltd-Secured, Redeemable Non Convertible Bonds

SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd

Rs.75 Crore with an option to retain oversubscription of up to Rs.150 Crore

Care Rating : CARE AA- (Double A Minus) by CARE BWR AA (BWR Double A) by BRICKWORK

Allotment on First come First Serve Basis Registrar : Karvy Computershare Private Limited Lead Managers : ICICI Securities, A.K. Capital, Trust Investment Advisors, SREI Capital
Series Frequency Min. App. in Multiples F.V. Issue Price Tenor Coupon for Ind. Cat. Effective Yield Maturity Date. (From Deemed Date of Allotment) Who can Apply I III IV* Annual Cumulative Annual Minimum Application Rs. 10,000 (10 NCDs) in Multiples of Rs. 1,000/- (1 NCD) Face Value of NCDs (Rs/NCD) 1,000/Issue Price (Rs/NCD) 1,000/3 Years 3 Years 3 Years 5 Years 10.35 % p.a. 10.75 % p.a. N.A. 11.00 % p.a. 10.75 % p.a. 10.75 % p.a. 10.75 % p.a. 11.00 % p.a. 3 Years 3 Years 3 Years 5 Years I Qtr. V* Cumulative VI Cumulative

5 Years N.A. 11.00 % p.a. 5 Years

6 Yr. 6 Month N.A. 11.24 % p.a. 6 Yr. 6 Month

Indv. Category

Indv. Category

Indv.Category

Indv. Category Indv. Category Institutional Cat. Insti. Cate. Non Inst. Category Non Inst.

Indv. Category

* Institutional & Non Institutional Category Investo (s) can only subscribe to Series IV and V NCDs, whereas individual Category Investor (s) can subscribe to all series of NCDs, namely series I, Series II, Series III, Series IV, Series V and Series VI ** Subject to applicable tax deducated at source, if nay.

Recommandation: High Risk High Return Issue

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Note : The interest rate being offered in the issue is slightly higher than bank fixed deposits, but AA rating denotes slight risk. * PSU Disinvestment :- The Central government has set a target to raise Rs. 40,000 crores through disinvestment in 2013-14. The prevailing uncertainty means that the government is not in a position to raise funds through share sale. However, the Centre could raise as much as Rs. 20,000 crores by selling 10 per cent stake in Coal India Limited, which would be 50 per cent of its annual target. In 2012-13, LIC had to rescue the offer for share of various PSUs. In view of this, the government has permitted the public sector companies to purchase minority stake in PSUs with which they have strategic business ties. The PSUs have also been permitted to use surplus funds for share buyback. This would ensure investors interest in PSUs, and safeguard their market cap. The share prices of the PSUs will not be affected even in the secondary market, which unfortunately has not been the case so far. Finance minister P Chidambaram has said that if PSUs are not investing the surplus funds, they would have to pay special dividend to the government. Under this situation, it would not be surprising if the Centre opts for a buyback scheme for Coal India disinvestment. * New Issues in private sector :JustDial :- This domestic search engine company has received approval from SEBI for its public issue. The company is coming with a IPO of 95.54 lakh shares having face value of Rs. 10 each. The company has raised Rs. 251 crores through Repco Home Fin. Listing Date : 1-4-2013 pre-IPO placements. The lead managers for the issue are Citi BSE Code 535322 Group and Morgan Stanley. The company had planned to come Offer Price : 172.00 Listing Price : 165.00 out with a Rs. 400 crores public issue in August 2011, but was Listing Day High : 176.00 forced to drop the plan due to adverse market conditions. Listing Day Low : 158.05 NCML Industries :- This edible oil importer, manufacturer and Listing Day Close 160.85 CMP (5-4-2013) 171.55 marketing company has filed a draft prospectus with SEBI for an IPO of 60 lakh shares. The lead manager of the issue is Allianz GCM Securities Lakhotia Polyesters Capital. The shares are proposed to Basis of Allotment Basis of Allotment be listed on the BSE and NSE. Allotment of R etail Category Retail Allotment of R etail Category Retail Advanced Enzyme :- This leading No. of Shares Applied No. of Shares Applied for Category wise 6000 for Category wise 4000 enzyme manufacturer has more than No. of Application 1331 No. of Application 180 Total Eq.Shares Applied 7986000 Total Eq.Shares Applied 720000 700 clients in 45 countries. The comProportionate Shares 3294000 Proportionate Shares 616000 Allocation per Applicant 2474.83 Allocation per Applicant 4000 pany has filed a DRHP with SEBI for Ratio 7 : 17 Ratio 6:7 Total Eq.Shares Allotted 3294000 coming out with a Rs. 200 crores pubTotal Eq.Shares Allotted 616000 GCM Securities lic issue. The company plans to use Lakhotia Polyester Listing Information Listing Date : 4-4-2013 the proposed issue to fund expansion Listing Date : 5-4-2013 BSE Code 535387 at its Indore facility and setting up an BSE Code 535431 Offer Price : 35.00 Offer Price : 20.00 R & D facility at Nashik. The book runListing Price : 35.80 Listing Price : 65.00 Listing Day High : 35.90 ning lead managers of the issue are Listing Day High : 68.25 Listing Day Low : 35.00 ICICI and SBI Caps. Listing Day Low : 65.00 Listing Day Close 35.00 Listing Day Close 68.25 CMP (5-4-2013) 35.50 ****
CMP (5-4-2013) 68.25

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Smart Best Buy

S. N. Zaveri

Expected Price hike will be major boost for Coal India Dabur India a Strong FMCG player : Accumulate M&M will bounce back on better March sales data Maruti stock very attractive after 23 per cent fall since February
Coal India (Rs. 308.50) (Code : 533278) : Coal India, the worlds largest coal producer, is trading at its lowest valuation since its listing in 2010 because of growing concerns among investors relating to the companys ability to raise coal prices. However, steps taken by the government over the past few months such as raising power tariffs in various states, restructuring of state distribution companies and deregulation of diesel prices may provide the staterun company greater freedom in fixing coal prices. Any price increase can lead to a re-rating of the stock. Since 2007, CIL has been raising coal prices every two years with the last one in July 2011. Industry officials reckon that a revision of price is imminent , perhaps in the next three to four months , once fuel supply agreements are finalised. If that happens, it can lead to higher growth in the companys earnings. The current P/B value of 7 and P/E of 11 are very attractive for CIL which is likely to grow at 11%, provide an RoE of more than 35% and has cash worth Rs 69,000 crore, equivalent to 35% of CILs market capitalisation. The stock is worth accumulating.
: When the market tumbled last week, Dabur India stock jumped at its 52-week high. Dabur is a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company doing extremely well and it has a very strong product profile. In quite number of products it has leadership position. The stock has been doing pretty well. Domestic Business Volumes to Sustain from Sales and Distribution Initiatives. expansion of direct coverage in rural markets will drive domestic volumes and margins for Dabur going ahead. 8-10% domestic volume growth range is expected during FY13E-FY15E. International Business , which is 30% of Consol idated Sales, is Seeing Gross Margins Expansion. US & Africa market contributes 70% & 30% . The management expects Namastes US & Africa businesses to be back on track from Q4FY13. At the CMP of Rs.133, the stock trades at a valuation of 21.4x its FY15E EPS of Rs. 6.2. Accumulate this stock at current level and at every decline.

Dabur India (Rs. 143.00) (Code : 500096)

M & M (Rs. 837.00) (Code : 500520) : Multi-purpose vehicles manufacturer Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) on Wednesday said it will soon hike the prices of its vehicles by 1-2 per cent. M&Ms auto sales for the month of March 2013 stood at 51,904 units as against 46,919 units during March 2012, a growth of 11 per cent. Its sales for the financial year 2013 grew 17 per cent to 5,63,373 units as against 4,83,164 units in FY 2011-12. The companys domestic sales stood at 49,225 units during March 2013, as against 44,260 units during March 2012, an increase of 11 per cent. The passenger vehicles segment registered a growth of 13 per cent, having sold 25847 units in March 2013, as against 22961 units during March 2012. The company is planning to invest Rs 5,000 crore in capex, new product development in next 2-3 years. The stock has corrected about 10 per cent in last one month.The stock will bounce back after better sales number. It is a good opportunity to enter into this large cap counter. Buy.
correction since February and now it looks very attractive, given the companys performance compared to the sector. The stock is now trading at 13 times its consensus FY14 net earnings, a 15 per cent discount to its historical average. While the sector grew by 3.9 per cent between April 2012 and February 2013, Maruti grew 5.5 per cent. Even in 2013, the decline in Marutis sales volume is lower than the industry. In the passenger car and utility vehicles segments, the company has expanded its marketshare thanks to its strong product mix (diesel and petrol). Though the sales of petrol vehicle declined 17 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) between April 2012 and February 2013, the diesel segment recorded a 27 per cent growth (driven mainly by the utility vehicles). Maruti is one of few stocks which should be added in portfolio at this time of uncertainty. Buy. Buy more at any decline.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs. 1405.00) (Code : 532500) : Maruti stock has seen a sharp 23 per cent

Sterlite Industries (Rs. 89.25) (Code : 500900) : The Supreme Court recently asked the sterlite Industries to pay Rs. 100 crore as compensation for polluting land and water by running it without approval for a considerable period of time. Hoever, more important is that the court allowed the Sterlite Copper Smelter plant to function in Tuticorin in public interest and has set aside High Court order which directed closure of the plants in 2010. The 400,000-tonne plant, the countrys largest copper smelting unit, has seen an investment of around Rs 8,300 crore. Sterlite contributes about 50 per cent of Indias copper production. It also produces 232,000 tonnes fertiliser grade phosphoric acid and around 1.3 million tonnes of sulphuric acid.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

25

Fifty - Fifty

kukkuji

(kukkuster@gmail.com)

Astra Microwave Products Ltd is engaged in designing and manufacturing of high value added RF and microwave super components and sub-systems finding applications in Defence, Space and Civil communication systems. The company has been able to carve a niche for themselves and build strong relationship with their customers by getting associated with them right at the conception stage of new product development. The compnay products are widely used in VSAT operations, radars, navigational equipment, public mobile trunk radio (PMTR), WLL, Cellular GSM/DCS or PCS networks. Their products meet ITU, MIL and Space standards, and stand testimony to the Company's R&D breakthroughs using ISO quality processes, world class manufacturing facilities and equipment, and trained manpower. The phenomenal success can be directly linked to the fact that the company operates in a customer centric manner supplying innovative, cost-effective solutions of superior quality with zero defects in the shortest possible time. The Company has invested significant resources both financially and time wise in indigenous defense development programs .These sustained efforts have now begun to bear fruits as some of these programs have moved to production stage. This will help the Company to achieve much faster growth in the top line in the years to come. The Company which has established itself as a reliable source for indigenous defense requirements has become an active offset partner for Defense offset requirements. It is the first among private companies to bag an offset related export order in the year 2008, when the Government opened such window of opportunities. Over the years though the offset programs moved slowly, AMPL was concentrating on establishing its credibility through its quality and timely supplies to its overseas customers. This confidence has enabled AMPL to bag and accumulate more than Rs.350 cr export orders at the end of last year. It is interesting to note that company has orders in hand of around 1000 crs . last year in 2011/12 company could achieve sales of rs 210 crs & net profit of 33.2 crs on equity base of rs 16.37 while for current year in 1st nine month it could achieve sales of rs 106 crs & net profit of rs 9 crs . ROCE remained 25 % As per conference call dated 31st Jan 2013 company is confident of meeting target sales of 230 crs for full year with expected PAT margins of 16 % net profit likely to be around 36 crs so EPS likely to be around 4.4 Next year sales targets estimated to be around 375 crs thus outlook of company is very encouraging . There is regular promoter buying in the counter , as promoter holding has gone up by 0.44 % for the 1st nine month while it is seen that there is regular good buying over last 3 months in good qty which build the confidence to advise stock for buying . Company has strong visibility of sales over next 4/5 year which is rare to see in current slow down sentiment. thus it is very likely to that stock may get rerated . Stock likely to do well when in closes well above 44 mark Investors can accumulate this stock for target of 60/65 over next 6 months time . Manali petro exit was advised at 11.5 levels , in view of cheaper imports of the products of company , it is understood that situation has not improved . investors can think of investing at current levels as dividend yield is good at current price. Pondi Oxide stock moved up well to high of 34 with short period of our advised of 20 about three weeks back, thus investors got decent return with in short period. investors can think of booking profit & switching to Astra microweave & Mukand engineers . TIPS Industry this is another good media stocks which was advised around 24/25 levels & went up to 88 levels, now current price is 60, buyback is over . Current valuations are good for investment. AEGIS LOGISTIC, at current level valuations are attractive, fundamentals triggers we have discussed in our earlier issues. this is one of the safe business model where investors can SIP at every dips from current levels. Alembic Pharma stock touched new high of 118 , investors can continue to hold the stock to review around 135 levels . Note - Though market closed below 5600 mark, but it seem bottoming out may not be away, valuations in mid & small caps are very attractive where investors should take the benefit to accumulate slowly in to good stocks.triggers likely to be expected fall in Gold & Crude prices . Commodity prices too have fallen which likely to benefit industry .

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8th April to 14th April 2013

26

High Risk High Return Shares

Polson Ltd : may be circuit broker due to possibility of delisting Gujarat Alkalies: Movement following big buying from one of the leading newspaper group of Ahmedabad Indusind Bank: Big players have taken long position riding on attractive bonus expectations B.F.Utilities: Big brokers are buying expecting positive announcement shortly BHEL: Big PSUs are increasing their stake
Tata Coffee: Increased tea prices may have positive impact on the stock
Polson Ltd (Rs1403.00) (Code: 507645) :- Around 113 year old company started its business with production of coffee but it has diversified into production of dairy specialty chemical business as well. The company's equity is just Rs60 lakh, reserves Rs28 lakh and market cap is Rs14 crore. In first three quarters of 2013, the company has clocked net profit of Rs4.62 crore on turnover of Rs19 crore. Promoters hold 84.33% stake. The company might opt for delisting to bring down promoters' stake holding below 75% for adhering to SEBI norms, so the share has turned out to be a circuit breaker, believes sources in market. Gujarat Alkalies (Rs165.00) (Code: 530001) :- One of the leading newspaper groups of Ahmedabad is aggressively buying stocks of the company. The newspaper group's holding in the company stood at 14.26% in June 2012, which has been increased to 25%. As result, other promoters of GACL and GNFC and GMDC are also in talks with mutual funds for increasing their holding. The stock is likely to witness much movement in near future. Indusind Bank (Rs400.00) (Code: 532187) :- Some big players in the market have acquired a big number of shares of this private sector bank. The bank is expected to give higher dividend and bonus share to short term investors. So investors can take benefit of short term trading in the stock. B.F. Utilities (Rs258.00) (Code: 532430) :- The share volume of this electric utilities manufacturing company is increasing heavily. Some broking houses are showing interest in the stock on expectation of positive announcement in near future. BHEL (Rs177.00) (Code: 500103) :- Some big PSUs of central government are taking interest in the stock of BHEL. This may lead to upward trend in the stock in near future. Tata Coffee (Rs. 1510.00) (Code: 532301) :- Tata group company is engaged in business of tea and coffee. Riding on high demand of tea in the international market, the company has increased tea prices by 2.5%. This price increase is expected to have positive impact on company's stock price.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

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Dalal Street Whispers

Peninsula Land: Company is launching three new projects at Mumbai
Delta Corp: High Risk High Return ; Essar Oil: Come out of CDR Welspun Corp: Big time buying by HNI and broking house Mangalore Chem : Strong possibility of takeover target Mah. Seamless: Movement due to buyback meeting on April 8
Delta Corp. (Rs.50.00) (Code: 532848) :- This 'B' group company with face value of Rs1 per provides commercial services. According to sources close to the development, the stocks are likely to witness sharp upward movement in short term. So it can be high risk, high return share. Welspun Corp (Rs56.00) (Code: 532144) :- The construction engineering sector company is listed in 'B' group with face value of Rs5 per share. Recently, a big HNI and a leading domestic stock broking house have taken good position in the company. Therefore investors must keep a close eye on the share price movement and consider buying for short term. Peninsula Land (Rs.44.00) (Code: 503031) :- The real estate sector company's share's facevalue is Rs2. The company is launching two projects in south Mumbai and one in central, which will result in drastic increase in company's income. The company has sold around one lakh square feet in Pune project at cost of Rs21,000 per square feet. Next two quarters are also likely to be bullish for the company in terms of sales. Essar Oil (Rs. 80.00) (Code: 500134) :- Oil and Gas sector's 'A' group company's share's face value is Rs10. The company has come out of corporate debt restructuring (CDR). The company had opted for CDR in December 2004 for setting up a refinery at Vadinar in Gujarat. When the company was under CDR it used to pay 11.5% interest, which has come down to 6%, which will result in saving of $15 crore. Manglore Chemicals (Rs. 42.00) (Code: 530011) :- In this 'B' group fertilizer company, Zuari Fertiliser has acquired 9.72% share worth Rs1.15 crore. Vijay Malya is handing the company and in coming days Zuari Fertilizer is expected to make hostile takeover bid. Maharashtra Seamless (Rs207.00) (Code: 500265) :- The face value of shares of the construction and engineering company listed in 'B' group is Rs5. The stock is expected to witness major movement as board of directors has convened a meeting on April 8 for discussion of buy back proposal.

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Financial Weekly

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8th April to 14th April 2013

28

Commodity Corner

Nickel Outlook
Nickel prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) have declined by 4.1 percent since the beginning of the month as a result of slowdown in the global economic growth. Further, unfavorable economic data from major global economies coupled with rise in inventories exerted downside pressure on the Nickel prices. In the Indian markets, MCX Nickel April contract declined 2.6 percent. Nickel inventories increased by 4.5 percent to 166716 tonnes in March 2013 from previous level of 159552 tonnes in February 2013. On a

Commodity Corner Vedika Narvekar

Sr. Research Analyst
Commodities Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

year-to-date basis, inventories rose sharply by 17.66 percent from 141690 tonnes in December 2012. On the consumption side, it is expected that global annual consumption of the metal will increase at a slower pace of 2.7 percent to 1.8 million tonnes in 2013 from 1.77 million tonnes in 2012. As per the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) it is forecasted that China, which is the biggest consumer of Nickel may see a rise in demand by around 2.75 percent to 860 tonnes in 2013. As per the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), imports in China rose by more than 17 percent in 2012 majorly from Indonesia and Philippines. While on the other hand, European Union, Japan and US are expected to see a decline in demand for the metal. In European Union, which is second largest consumer of Nickel, consumption is expected to decline by 8 percent in 2013. After a positive start in 2012, demand was declining in the Euro Zone on account of worsening debt crisis in the region. Japan which ranks third in world nickel consumption declined by 8.3 percent in 2012 and is expected to fall in coming year. Global Nickel production which grew 13 percent in 2012 may continue to increase further in 2013 as producers have shown readiness to pace projects in line with major developments taking place in demand and prices scenario. Mine supply will increase at a slow pace by 3.8 percent in 2013 from a rise of 7 percent in 2012. Philippines which ranks number one in the nickel mine production is expected to witness a rise by 5.7percent in 2013. While on the other hand, Indonesia which ranks 3rd in the nickel production has uncertain operating environment. Fall in the prices along with restrictions on ore exports reduced the addition to new mine supply in 2012 which reached 125.000 tonnes. China set up import duty on Nickel imports from Indonesia and thus their purchases increased from Philippines. As per the EIU, although global nickel markets may witness second consecutive year of surplus in 2013, the comparatively slow growth in consumption may lead to decline in surplus to 80000 tonnes from 117000 tonnes in the previous year. Outlook :- In the near term, we expect nickel prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, worsening Euro Zone debt crisis and slowdown in the US economic growth lead to concerns in the global economic growth and will affect the demand for the metal. Further, unfavorable economic data from China will exert downside pressure on the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. MCX Nickel April contract may find support at Rs 865/850 per kg and Resistance is seen at Rs 915-930 per kg.

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8th April to 14th April 2013 Badruddin

AVP Research - Commodities (Indiabulls Commodities Ltd)

29

Commodity Space

Bullion :- MCX June Gold futures plunged in the last week as US economic data weighs on
the overseas bullion market. U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, consumer spending rose most in five months in February and consumer confidence also increased in March. The US dollar against yen after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor began his campaign to end 15 years of deflation by doubling monthly bond purchases on fresh monetary stimulus. The BOJ will purchase 7.5 trillion yen ($78.6 billion) of bonds a month and double the monetary base in two years. Gold holdings in Exchange Traded Products (ETP) tumbled 7.5 percent (Gold ETP stood at 2435.35 metric tonnes as on April 04,2013) this year to the lowest level since August as gold lost its' appeal as an alternative investment. However, gold slightly recovered as U.S. jobless claims rose more than expectation and the euro gained with comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi on Thursday. Draghi said that the ECB stands ready to cut interest rates if the economy deteriorates and officials are considering additional measures as a debt crisis enters its fourth year. Price Movement in the Last week : MCX June gold prices opened the week at Rs 30,020/10 grams, initially traded mildly higher but found strong resistance of Rs 30,099/10 grams. Later, gold prices fell sharply and touched a low of Rs 29,132/10 grams and currently trading at Rs 29,382/10 grams (April 05, Friday at 4.10 PM) with a loss of Rs 603/10 grams as compared with previous week's close. Outlook for this week : MCX June Gold futures are expected to trade lower on back of positive US economic data. However, depreciation of India's rupee against US dollar may restrict sharp fall in bullion prices at domestic bourses. MCX June gold shall find supports at 28,900/28,500 levels and resistances at 29,800/30,000 levels. Spot Gold has supports at 1522/1480 and resistances at 1575/1592 levels. Recommendation for this week : Sell MCX June Gold between 29,750-29,800, SL above 30,000 and Target- 28,900/28,550. Copper :- MCX April Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week as worries over euro-area double dip recession and slow global economic growth. China's manufacturing was expanded at a slower pace than the survey estimations in March. As per Markit economics, India's manufacturing growth slowed to the 16-months low and U.S. ISM manufacturing was also expanded at worse than expectation in February. The euro area manufacturing output contracted for the twentieth consecutive month in March. Euro area services output contracted more than estimated in March and copper inventories, tracking by London Metal Exchange (LME) are at highest since Oct, 2003. However, Copper rebounded Thursday on account of short covering as euro gained against dollar after the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meet. Moreover, Bank of Japan's economic stimulus and the ECB comments to confirm additional stimulus also added bullish market sentiments. Price movement in the last week : MCX April Copper prices opened the week at Rs 410.25/ kg, initially traded mildly higher but found strong resistance at Rs 410.95/kg. Later prices came under pressure and touched a low of Rs 401.45/kg and currently trading at Rs 408.20/kg (April 05, Friday at 4.10 PM) with a loss of Rs 2/kg as compared with previous week's close. Outlook for this week : MCX April Copper is expected to trade lower on the back of slow global economic growth and higher inventories of copper at LME ware houses. However, weakness in

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8th April to 14th April 2013

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Indian rupee against US dollar may restrict sharp fall in copper prices at domestic bourses. India's rupee fell to one month low as dropping inflows in capital markets would add further weakness to the currency, led by record level current account deficit. Overseas funds inflows in Indian stocks fell to $1.9 billion in March from $4 billion in each of previous three months. India's rupee may further weaken against the U.S. dollar. MCX April Copper shall find a supports at 396.50/385 levels and resistances at 416/421 levels. Recommendation for this week : Sell MCX April Copper between 414-416, SL- above 421 and Target- 397/386. Energy :- Crude oil futures fell sharply in the last week on account of profit taking after a sharp rise in previous week. Further, crude oil inventories, tracking by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), grew to 22-year high in the last week. Crude oil supplies rose 2.71 million barrels to 388.6 million last week, the highest level since 1990. In a different report, there were indications of increase in oil supplies when Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer increases output to seek a long-term accord to boost oil exports to China. Additionally, U.S. initial jobless claims increased more than expectation in the last week also added bearish market sentiments. Price movement in the last week : MCX April crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5392/ bbl, fell sharply but found strong support at Rs 5075/bbl and currently trading at Rs 5105/bbl (April 05, Friday at 4.10 PM) with a huge loss of Rs 295/bbl (down 5.28%). Outlook for this week : MCX April crude oil is expected to trade lower on account of rising US crude oil inventories and falling demand as slow global economic growth. MCX April crude oil shall find a support at 4925/4800 levels and resistance 5250/5300 levels. Recommendation for this week : Sell MCX April Crude Oil between 5230-5250, SL-5310 and Target- 4925/4800. Soybean :- NCDEX May Soybean futures traded higher in the last week on account of lower arrivals in domestic market as farmers are holding their produce in anticipation of higher prices in coming days. Weakness in Indian rupee against US dollar also provided support to the prices. Soy-meal exporters will get more return on meal exports due to depreciation in INR vs US$. As per USDA's weekly export sales report, net weekly export sales for soybean came in at 392,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 355,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 747,800 tonnes. As of March 28th, cumulative sales stand at 98.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 88.5%. Sales of 24,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 92,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 12,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 105,300. Cumulative sales stand at 98% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 70%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at -4,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 78% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 65%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week : NCDEX May soybean is expected to trade higher on account of declining arrivals in major mandis as farmers are holding their stocks in anticipation of higher prices in coming days. Weakness in Indian rupee against US dollar is in favour of soy meal exporters as they will get higher return. NCDEX May soybean shall find a support at 3735/3670 levels and Resistance 4080/4200 levels. Recommendation for this week : Buy NCDEX May Soybean between 3735-3750, SL-3665 and Target- 4080/4170.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

31

Outlook on Rupee

GLOBAL FX AUTHORITY

Abhishek Goenka
Founder & CEO, (India Forex Advisors)

Continuing with its weakness against the US dollar, rupee closed the session on friday at 54.81 levels. The USDINR pair made a high of 54.88 levels and a low of 54.76 levels. The rupee started on a positive note as Euro recovered on thursday and the Dollar index fell below 83.00 levels owing to downbeat jobs data from the US. However the rupee traded on a weaker note in the later hours taking cues from the negative stock markets. After a volatile week, markets witnessed a lackluster trading session on Friday. The BSE Sensex fell for a third consecutive session amid concerns that foreign investors would exit some of their holdings due to domestic and global uncertainties. The sugar stocks were cheering up the cabinet decision of deregulating the sugar prices and the obligation of levy on sugar mills. Balrampur Chini gained 3.2% while Shree Renuka was up 2.4%. The Sensex closed the session down at 18450.23 and the Nifty was seen somehow managing its hold at the crucial 5550 mark and ended down by 21.50 points at 5553.25. Globally, Euro was seen recovering against the US dollar after the ECB kept the rates unchanged. ECB President Draghi spent more time talking about what they have done so far and how it has benefitted the economy and stabilized the financial markets. Thursdays US unemployment claims rose on a week on week basis, giving bleak picture of the job market in the US. Going ahead, US Unemployment rate and the Nonfarm employment change will be watched by the markets for further clues about the market. As mentioned earlier, USDINR pair has found a strong support at 54.50 levels. The recent weakness in the stock markets, driven by the fear of early elections, has put pressure on the rupee. Globally, dollar index was seen holding above 82.50 levels, indicating strong resilience despite the poor data released yesterday. Although, minor correction is expected, the major trend remains bearish for the rupee.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

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News Track

The World Gold Council launches wedding jewellery collection 'Azva' in Gujarat
An ensemble of togetherness inspired by 'Saat Pheras or Seven Vows', crafted in 22-karat gold was launched by eminent celebrity Genelia D'souza Marriages are made in heaven, embraced on earth and celebrated with gold. The World Gold Council launches Azva wedding jewellery as an ode to the seven promises of lifelong togetherness shared by every couple. A first of its kind creative and product concept crafted in 22 karat gold, Azva wedding jewellery comprises of exquisite necklaces, earrings and bracelets which beautifully showcase the idea of seven. The collection is inspired by 'Saat Pheras' (seven vows) of the Indian wedding tradition. The World Gold Council has partnered with leading jewellery retailers in Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot and Baroda who will exclusively retail Azva jewellery at their stores. Present at the launch event in Ahmedabad was film celebrity Genelia D'souza who adorned one of Azva's unique statement pieces. Commenting on this milestone innovation in the wedding jewellery segment in India, David Lamb, Managing Director, Jewellery at the World Gold Council, said: "We are delighted to present a collection of innovative designs that represents every couple's unique story of togetherness, crafted in gold. Each piece is as eternal, as precious and as emotional as the promises made by the couple to each other on their wedding day.

Finkurve makes Gold/Silver buying easy

Finkurve Bullion Private Limited (FBPL) is jointly promoted by NCDEX Spot Exchange Limited (NSPOT), RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL), and Finkurve Financial Services Limited (FFSL). FPBL mulls offering SPOT trading in bullion across India. The company plans to launch several bullion-based structured products in near future. Bullion India is one of the structured products that have been launched by FBPL to offer retail customer an opportunity to own gold and silver bars in small denominations at the lowest price. It provides an online system to its members to buy, sell, hold and redeem these bars in a simple, easy and a convenient manner. To facilitate buying of smallest quantity of just 0.1 gram of Gold and 1 gram of Silver, one has to become a member of Bullion India (BI) portal promoted for these activities. This portal provides most competitive buy and sell quote for small quantities of pure physical gold and silver at the lowest possible price- with the option of free storage or door-step deliveries. All the bars are 24 Carat Pure and comply with international standards and they are stored with professional security agency vaults with complete security and full insurance. BI charges no commissions or brokerage as there is no account opening charges as well. The entire process of buying/selling and redemption is carried out online in a secured and encrypted environment making the entire process hassle-free and safe. This also helps the members to keep a daily track of their account as they can access their account information/ trading history whenever and wherever they want! All they need is an Internet connection. Bullion India through its Mobile Trader application also provides the members an option to trade through their hand held devices while on the move. This portal is operations for all the week days except on Sunday's and holidays. Following overwhelming response since launch in October 2012 with over 31000 members the group is expanding its business associate network in western region with headquarters in Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Perhaps this is the fist such portal that offers Silver in purity bars mode.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

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Astro View
Om Shree Ganeshaya Namah

Weekly Stock Market Prediction 8th April 2013 12th April 2013

Satish Gupta (Delhi)

www.astrostocktips.in

Weekly planetary position: During the week, Moon will be transiting in Aquarius, Pisces & Aries. Lord Saturn & Rahu in Libra. Jupiter in Taurus. Pluto in Sagittarius. Neptune in Aquarius. Mars, Sun & Venus in Pisces. Ketu in Aries. Venus will shift to Aries on 10th April 2013 & Mars will shift to Aries on 12th April 2013. Be Cautious :- astrological position is not comfortable & deception / erratic behavior with down trend to continue. As predicted last week, deception / erratic behavior with down trend continued & Nifty touched 5 months low. With blessings of Lord Ganesha predicted on 22nd March 2013 "With the change in planetary position, FINANCIAL sector i.e. IDFC, IFCI, LIC Housing, M&M Financials, Shree Ram Road Transport, REC & PFC etc will be getting strong astrological support for next few weeks." On 4th March 2013, Nifty was down by 100 points & IFCI, PFC, REC, IDFC & M&M FINANCIALS closed in green. We again repeat that Sectors which get strong ASTROLOGICAL support are not normally affected by downfall in the market & it is advised trade in only those sectors, which get strong astrological support.. It is very important to understand that whenever planetary position is deceptive / uncomfortable for Stock Market, it is also influencing / affecting most of the traders / investors (depending on planetary position in individual horoscope). They are not able to take proper decisions or act at right time. So BE CAUTIOUS & consult your Financial Astrologer. Lord Saturn is in retrograde position from 18th February to 8th July 2013. Following Sectors will be getting astrological support & buying may be initiated on down days. Financial Sector :- REC, PFC, LIC Housing, M&M Financials, Shree Ram Road Transport, IFCI & IDFC etc will continue getting very strong astrological support. Personal Care Sector :- Dabur, Emami, Godrej Consumers, Hind Uniliver etc will also be getting strong astrological support. Pharma sector i.e. Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy, Biocon, Wockhardt, Lupin etc will also continue receiving astrological support. Paints Sector will continue getting strong astrological support. Buy Asian Paints, Shalimar Paints, Hard Castle, Kansal Nerolac & Jenson Nicholson etc on dips. Asian Paints, which has been continuously moving up & made new high, is now in correction mode. Keep close eye on this stock & start accumulating, once correction is over. Media / Entertainment :- Sector will be receiving astrological support. Buy Dish TV, Sun TV, Eros, PVR & Zee Entertainment etc. Always be very cautious, when some main planets i.e. Rahu, Ketu, Jupiter & Lord Saturn are changing their houses. It may be that certain sectors which were continue sly getting support for long time may stop receiving support due to change in position by above planets & stocks of those sectors starts coming down, resulting in losses. This is common reason, why most people loss money. One should trade only in the stocks of that sectors which are getting very strong astrologically support. Sectors which get very strong ASTROLOGICAL support are not normally affected by downfall in the market.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

Senior Astrologer Dharmesh Joshi
Mob. : 9909941816
E-mail : stockmarket@ganeshaspeaks.com

34

08-04-2013, Monday :- .. .. Nifty may open around the surface, and then it may slightly go up. .. Since the weightage for the period between 9:30 to 13:00 is zero, there may be no clear trend during the aforementioned time slot. .. The overall market breadth may gradually go on the up-side during 13:00 to 14:20, foresees Ganesha. .. At around 14:20, there may be a correction at Nifty, and l ater, the market may gradually go up. However, keep in mind that the weightage for this period is just 0.01. 09-04-2013, Tuesday :- .. At around 9:30, sell at Nifty, and at around 10:00, buy at Nifty. .. At around 11:20, sell at Nifty and once the market comes down, buy immediately .. At around 12:30, buy at Nifty, and at around 13:20, sell at Nifty. .. At around 14:20, sell at Nifty, once the market comes down, buy immediately. 10-04-2013, Wednesday :- .. The weightage for the period between opening to 13:00 is only 0.01. Therefore, there may not be any major movement in the market. Dont trade during this period, as it would amount to profit only. .. During 13:00 to 14:00, there may be buying in some particular scrips in the A Group shares. However, it is difficult to predict the exact figure for the same a week in advance. .. At around 14:00, there may be bulk selling at Nifty, and then, Nifty may go up as well. Hence, be alert and trade accordingly till the closing bell. 11-04-2013, Thursday :- .. Although the opening indices for today and tomorrow may be positive, they may be totally unreliable. .. Dont trade considering the opening indices. .. There is going to be only time slot during the day ahead that may give you some clear indications for intraday transactions. Otherwise, it looks set to be a totally confusing day, says Ganesha. .. At around 12:20, buy at Nifty with a view to exit at around 13:20 . .. At around 14:10, buy at Nifty. You may make an exit at around 15:25. 12-04-2013, Friday :- .. Take into account the pre-opening trends, and short sell at the opening points. Make an exit once you book the profits. .. At around 10:00, sell at Nifty, and at around 10:40, buy at Nifty. .. At around 11:00, sell at Nifty and at around 11:30, buy at Nifty. .. At around 14:00, sell at Nifty, and at around 14:20, buy at Nifty. .. The period from 14:00 to 14:30 is a very small and risky time slot. .. Buy at Nifty at around 14:30, and make an exit even with Rs. 2 margin.

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8th April to 14th April 2013

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Editor : Dilip K. Shah

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Disclaimer :- Investment recommendations made in Smart Investment are for information purposes only and derived from source that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Smart Investment or the analyst / writer do not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are soley responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintance may / may not have positions in the scrips featured herein

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