April 19, 2013

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VALUATION WATCH: Valuation Watch is OFF. Stock valuations are in the middle of "normal" range according to our Valaution Model. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
14865.06 3277.58 938.67 1588.84

Thurs Close
14537.14 3166.36 901.51 1541.61

Change
-327.92 -111.22 -37.16 -47.23

% Change
-2.21% -3.39% -3.96% -2.97%

YTD
10.89% 6.26% 7.18% 8.95%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 50.47% 49.53% 19.34% 18.65%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.13% -0.25% 0.13% -0.56% -0.81% -0.47% -0.50% -0.56% -0.43% -0.39% -0.89% -0.10% 0.67% -0.40% -0.33% 0.10%

MTD
-1.10% -3.08% -7.01% 35.67% -4.99% -5.60% -2.34% -4.21% -2.12% -5.32% -2.40% -2.71% -5.58% -1.58% -4.03% -0.67%

YTD
9.69% 3.82% -2.02% 49.68% 4.97% 8.44% 11.96% 6.31% 9.81% 8.05% 9.65% 3.02% 1.91% 15.40% 13.74% 5.96%

Valuation
7.86% overvalued 0.98% overvalued 15.64% undervalued 6.60% overvalued 7.05% overvalued 10.92% overvalued 4.97% overvalued 14.21% overvalued 12.48% overvalued 5.28% overvalued 7.28% overvalued 0.29% undervalued 1.47% undervalued 13.72% overvalued 12.21% overvalued 7.87% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
8.34% 0.83% -34.77% 9.74% -1.94% 23.03% 7.42% 9.02% 11.18% 2.21% 10.76% 8.12% -11.50% 14.74% 0.90% 6.41%

P/E Ratio
14.99 17.28 17.9 20.43 24.63 23.13 22.71 20.03 17.53 17.28 22.47 14.59 23.35 20.38 20.2 17.93

Sector TalkUtilities
Below, we present the latest data on leading Consumer Discretionary Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
BT TEO GNCMA PIKE TI

Name
BT GRP PLC-ADR TELECOM ARGENTI GENL COMMS INC PIKE ELECTRIC TELECOM ITA-ADR

Mkt Price
42.16 15.02 8.94 14.28 7.67

Valuation(%)
38.79 -8.24 -5.73 4.74 -11.83

Last 12-M Retn(%)

21.29 1.56 12.74 84.26 -29.37

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
BT TEO GNCMA PIKE TI

Name
BT GRP PLC-ADR TELECOM ARGENTI GENL COMMS INC PIKE ELECTRIC TELECOM ITA-ADR

Mkt Price
42.16 15.02 8.94 14.28 7.67

Valuation(%)
38.79 -8.24 -5.73 4.74 -11.83

Last 12-M Retn(%)

21.29 1.56 12.74 84.26 -29.37

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
VIP NTT TEO TEF PPL

Name
VIMPELCOM LTD NIPPON TELE-ADR TELECOM ARGENTI TELEFONICA S.A. PPL CORP

Mkt Price
12.37 23.57 15.02 13.63 32.06

Valuation(%)
-5.4 -4.85 -8.24 -13.53 -1.03

Last 12-M Retn(%)

20.21 4.62 1.56 -4.19 19.18

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
XTEX S BT UGI SRE

Name
CROSSTEX EGY LP SPRINT NEXTEL BT GRP PLC-ADR UGI CORP SEMPRA ENERGY

Mkt Price
18.58 7.19 42.16 40.18 81.25

Valuation(%)
94.69 55.9 38.79 32.5 30.6

Last 12-M Retn(%)

9.68 185.32 21.29 50.49 28.05

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you To Sign Up for a should sign up for FREE TRIAL, ValuEngine's award-winning Please Click stock valuation and forecast HERE service NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00 This week's free download is our report on Verizon Communications (VZ). Verizon Communications, formed by the merger of Bell Atlantic and GTE, is one of the world's leading providers of high-growth communications services. Verizon companies are the largest providers of wireline and wireless communications in the United States. Verizon is also the world's largest provider of print and on-line directory information. Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Verizon HERE. (LINK IS WORKING/NEW LINK SYSTEM DIRECT DOWNLOAD)

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.691) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.981, 2.035, 2.476 and 3.063 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.716, and semiannual risky level at 1.413. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1392.5) A daily value level is $1331.3 with weekly, annual, semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1520.0, $1599.9, $1719.2, $1723.4, $1808.3 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil ($87.73) My quarterly value level is $79.66 with a daily pivot at $86.97, and weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at $89.78, $98.93 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3048) Semiannual, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.2797, 1.2702, 1.2489 and 1.2169 with daily, annual and monthly risky levels at 1.3154, 1.3257 and 1.3668. Major Indices Daily DOW (14,537) Semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,323, 14,286, 13,755 and 12,696 with daily and weekly risky levels at 14,777 and 14,993. Set its all time intra-day high and closing highs at 14,887.51 and 14,865.14 on April 11, 2013. S&P 500 (1541.6) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1448.7 and 1348.3 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 1565.8 and 1566.9, and daily and weekly risky levels at 1570.4 and 1591.9, and the new all time high at 1597.35 set on April 11, 2013. NASDAQ (3166) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3106 and 2806 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 3255, 3282 and 3289, and semiannual risky level at 3583. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2742) My annual value level is 2463 with daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2832, 2834, 2839 and 2819, and the September 21, 2012 high at 2878.38. Dow Transports (5944) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5469 and 5324 with annual, monthly and semiannual pivots at 5925, 5960 and 5955, and daily and weekly risky levels at 5987 and 6299. The all time intra-day high is 6291.65 on March 19, 2013 and an all time closing high at 6281.24 on March 14, 2013. Russell 2000 (901.51) Annual and quarterly value levels are 860.25, 809.54 and 807.82 with daily, weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 914.21, 950.77, 958.79 and 965.51. Set a new all time intraday high at 954.00 on March 15, 2013. The SOX (413.88) Quarterly and annual value levels are 357.61 and 338.03 with a monthly pivot at 419.96, and daily and weekly risky levels at 427.98 and 432.04. My semiannual risky level is 520.17 with the July 2007 high at 549.39.

Stock of the Day One of the more popular features of Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing for investors is his stock of the day. In every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock and provides VE data as well as his own proprietary technical data. Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter. Caterpillar (CAT) ($80.46) Caterpillar Inc is the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines. The company is one of only a handful of U.S. companies that leads its industry while competing globally from a principally domestic manufacturing base. The company records more than half of its sales to overseas customers. Their products are used in the construction, road building, mining, forestry, energy, transportation and material-handling industries. Analysis Caterpillar has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $95.67, which makes the stock 14.8% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $86.26. The daily chart for CAT shows declining momentum with the stock below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $85.09, $89.23 and $87.98. My semiannual value level is $72.85 with a weekly pivot at $80.25 and annual risky levels at $96.43 and $97.63.

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We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports