MNGT 212: Statistical Methods for Business

Course Co-ordinator: Dave Worthington (Dept of Management Science, Room A74, Ext. 93872, email: d.worthington@lancaster.ac.uk) Pre-requisites: It will be assumed that students have taken MSCI 101 or equivalent. Term Taught: Michaelmas Contact Time: 20 lecture hours; 10 workshops ECTS: 8

Introduction At the heart of many real management problems is data that needs to be described, analysed and interpreted. The overall objective of this course is to develop students' abilities to describe, analyse and interpret data soundly, making effective use of computer software. Statistical methods are important across the range of Management School subject areas (e.g. accounting & finance, marketing, economics, operations management and operational research). Developing these skills will also help students demonstrate to prospective employers that they have practical skills that can immediately be put to good use to solve problems for organisations either in the public or private sector. The lecture materials and problems that students are asked to solve in workshops relate to typical problems that organisations have to solve in practical situations where data analysis skills are required. Practical Application: Nowadays, there are numerous statistical packages of varying degrees of sophistication designed to relieve the business analyst of much of the numbercrunching that has historically been involved in making sense of data. The course therefore emphasises the practical application of the statistical methods including the use of statistical packages where appropriate. However, the course also takes the view that a statistically ignorant user of statistical packages can do more harm than good. Hence it is essential that students at least obtain a common-sense understanding of the statistical manipulations that the packages perform. The course will make substantial use of SPSS, a professional package used in many organisations, as an example of statistical software. Problems will be set that will require students to make intelligent use of SPSS. Students wishing to obtain their own copy of SPSS (now version 20) can do so under the University's licence by following the instructions on: http://www.lancs.ac.uk/iss/software/spss/

Learning Outcomes
Subject-specific learning outcomes: By the end of the course students should be able to: Know when and how to apply Discrete Probability Distributions (e.g. General, Uniform, Poisson and Binomial), including use of probability formulae, tables and SPSS; Know when and how to apply Continuous Probability Distributions (e.g. General, Uniform, Normal and Exponential), including use of probability formulae, tables and SPSS; Know when and how to apply basic Statistical Inference ideas, including the Central Limit Theorem and confidence intervals; Know when and how to apply Z and t tests for Hypothesis Testing about the Mean of a Population, manually and using SPSS; Know when and how to apply Z and t tests for Hypothesis Testing about the Means of two Populations, manually and using SPSS; Know when and how to apply the Chi-Square Statistic to test for independence; To be aware of Nonparametric Statistical Tests and their role in hypothesis testing; Know how to fit, check and use Simple Linear Regression models using SPSS; Appreciate the potential role of Multiple Regression models. Cognitive abilities/Non-subject-specific learning outcomes: By the end of the course students should be able to: Use a statistical computer package well; Appreciate how to apply the appropriate analytical methodologies to solve problems for organisations when data is available; Appreciate the potential for use and misuse of technical ideas in business situations.

Teaching Methods
There will be 20 lectures and 10 workshops (5 in seminar rooms and 5 in PC labs). The lectures will present the concepts, methods and results, drawing on business applications to illustrate them. Copies of lecture slides will be placed on the course web board https://mle.lancs.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=1660 by the end of the previous week. NOTE: Lecture slides are NOT intended to be self-explanatory - attendance at lectures is essential to understand them, and additional material may sometimes be handed out at lectures. Practice in using the lecture material is also essential. Examples will be put on the LUVLE notice board well before the workshops, and students are expected to attempt prior to the workshops. Attendance at workshops is a compulsory and integral part of the course. They will provide students with an opportunity to obtain guidance on those parts of the course where they are having difficulty, to extend their understanding, and also to gain experience of using statistical software. There are two types of workshop:

In weeks 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 they are in Seminar Rooms. In weeks 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 they are in Computer Labs.

Outline Lecture Plan (Provisional and Approximate)

Week 1 Topic Introduction to MNGT212; Understanding data using SPSS. Applications of Probability model choice and interpretation Sampling, Sampling Variation and Confidence Intervals - including Central Limit Theorem Statistical Tests and Inference Comparisons: Statistical Inference for two populations. Alternative Approaches to Inference & Chi-square test of Independence. Regression Modelling using SPSS: Simple Linear regression Regression Modelling using SPSS: Statistical Model Building Regression Modelling using SPSS: Statistical Model Building Regression Modelling using SPSS: Regression Diagnostics Text Navigation Chaps 1-6 in practice Chaps 7-12 in practice Chaps 1315 Chaps 16 Chap 18 Tutorials/ Workshops General Intro Courseworks

Basic SPSS exercises. Probability & Discrete & Continuous distns CLT via SPSS Confidence interval & hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing in SPSS Uses of nonparametric & Chisquare tests Intro to Regression in SPSS Interpreting Regression output Regression using SPSS Hand out CWA1 (due Mon week 6)

4 5

Chaps 17 &5 Chaps 19 & 21 Chaps 23 Chap & 24 Chaps 22 & 23

Hand out CWA2 (due Mon week 9)

8 9 10

Hand out CWA3 (due Fri week 12)

Assessment
Assessment is based on an open book examination in the summer term and on three coursework assignments. Students need to obtain at least 30% on the exam to pass. Their final mark will then be a weighted combination of their exam percentage (x 0.7) and their coursework percentage (x 0.3). PLEASE ALSO NOTE the following University and office procedures: 1. All MNGT212 assessment will be marked using percentages. 2. All MNGT212 coursework must be submitted to A13, the Undergraduate Office, on the day of the deadline before 12.30pm. 3. Coursework will not be accepted unless each student signs a declaration form, which includes a statement that they have read and understood the University regulations relating to Plagiarism.

4. For students entering their second or third year year, in accordance with University regulations, any coursework which is not submitted to the Undergraduate Office by the deadline will be penalised according to the table below. This penalty will apply for 3 days after the deadline and then a mark of zero will be given to any work not submitted. However, if (in exceptional circumstances) an extension is given by the lecturer, then the rule applies from the date of the extension.
Original Mark 87 100 74 86 70 73 60 69 50 59 40 49 31 39 18 30 0 30 Mark after penalty 68 65 62 50 59 (i.e. deduct 10) 40 49 (i.e. deduct 10) 31 18 9 0

5. For students entering their fourth year, in accordance with University regulations, 10% will be deducted from any coursework which is not submitted to the Undergraduate Office by the deadline. This penalty will apply for 3 days after the deadline and then a mark of zero will be given to any work not submitted. However, if (in exceptional circumstances) an extension is given by the lecturer, then the rule applies from the date of the extension.

Workload
The total workload for the course is expected to be about 150 hours. The lectures and seminars are about 30 hours of this and the workload also includes time to prepare for the workshops, to complete the coursework assessment and to prepare for the examination.

Reading and Lecture Notes

Students are expected to have a copy of the course text: Statistics for Business: Decision Making and Analysis by Robert Stine and Dean Foster, (2011), published by Pearson Education. Lectures are designed to guide and help students through material from chapters 1-24 from this text (as outlined in the lecture plan above). Examples from the book (and elsewhere) will also be used during workshops and tutorials. Other texts (copies available in the library) that some students find helpful are: Statistics for Business and Economics by Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Freeman and Shoesmith, (2010), 2nd edition, published by South-Western Introduction to Business Statistics (6th edition) by Kvanli A.H., Pavur R.J. & Keeling K.B., West Publishing Company (2002).

Course Management
The course will use the Moodle for posting lecture notes, assignments and general information. https://modules.lancaster.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=1660 When info not available on Moodle, contact James Mulholland (ext 92726) or email j.w.mulholland@lancaster.ac.uk.

Further Information
There is also a departmental web board for undergraduates that gives useful documents. The URL is: https://modules.lancaster.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=2335 You are advised to take note of the warnings about late work, plagiarism and collusion. If you are unsure of the meaning of the terms plagiarism and collusion, you should read: http://www.lancs.ac.uk/celt/celtweb/anti_plag_students_advice We hope that you enjoy the course and welcome feedback informally and via course reps.