Modelling impacts of changes to energy standards in Scottish building regulations

The Sullivan Report Key recommendations Research CO2 emissions from new buildings 1990 : 2008 Lifecycle costs of changes to CO2 emissions standard Lifecycle analysis of embodied CO2 and emissions Heat supply options assessment SAP, SBEM SAP, SBEM and DSM + cost modelling SimaPro v 7.0.2, SAP and DSM MS Excel, custom

International panel appointed by Scottish Ministers chaired by Lynne Sullivan The Sullivan Report December 2007 56 recommendations 9 workstreams New build, existing Domestic, non-domestic Design, construction, performance Costings

Sullivan report recommendations for new build staged standards

Reductions in CO2 emissions beyond 2007 Technical Handbooks 2010 Low carbon Domestic Non-domestic 30% 50% 2013 2016 / 17 2030 Very low Zero carbon, Total life carbon if practical zero carbon 60% 75% 100% 100% (regulated uses) ?

CO2 emissions from new buildings 1990 baseline

Consultation proposal for 2010: 30% better than 2007 Technical Handbooks

105.2 tonnes

2.7 tonnes

3.0 tonnes

3.9 tonnes

3.5 tonnes

6.3 tonnes

6.3 tonnes

CO2emissions emissionsrelative relativeto to1990 1990baseline buildings CO2

Cost impacts of changes to energy standards in 2010 Non-Domestic Davis Langdon LLP with Faber Maunsell

Primary school

4,466 m2

10m

City centre offices 12,236 m2 30m

Secondary school 11,193 m2 24m

Retail warehouse 4,756 m2 5m

www.sbsa.gov.uk/research/summ_nd_energ_2010.htm

Study methodology

Created energy models using recent projects in Scotland Proposed two levels of fabric upgrades / energy efficiency Modelled low carbon technologies to reduce emissions: Wind Site-side turbines and roof-top units Sun Solar thermal hot water and Photovoltaics Ground source heat pumps Biomass boilers Estimated capital and operational savings with payback periods

Energy efficiency scenarios Element U-values (W/mK) Roof Wall Floor Windows, doors, rooflights Air permeability (m/(h.m) @ 50Pa) Solar shading (effective g-value) Heating - gas fired (S & delivery ) (%) Cooling - electric (EER & delivery (%)) Lighting (W/m/100 lux): Primary school Secondary school City centre office Retail warehouse Baseline 0.25 0.30 0.25 2.20 10 0.7 88 & 95 3 & 90 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.9 2 2.5 85 0.95+ Intermediate 0.15 0.25 0.20 1.60 7 0.5 90 & 95 3.5 & 90 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.5 90 & 85 0.95+ MS AM&T+A Advanced 0.10 0.15 0.10 1.20 3 0.5 92 & 95 4 & 90 2 2 2 2 2.5 2.5 92 & 85 0.95+ DD & MS AM&T+A

Ventilation Specific Fan Power (W/l/s): Schools Office & retail warehouse Hot Water gas indirect (S & delivery ) (%) Power Factor Correction Lighting Controls BMS Controls

Primary school, 9,925,271: CO2 emissions / on-costs

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Tonnes CO2 % on-costs 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Baseline 94.1 tonnes CO2 59.3 = 37% reduction 47.1 = 50% reduction

Intermediate energy efficiency + 119 kW wind = 50% CO2 reduction Additional cost 4.9%

37% 50%

Baseline

208 kW biomass = 50% CO2 reduction Additional cost 1.9%

130 kW biomass 208 kW biomass 148 kW wind

340 kW biomass + 50 kW wind

340 kW biomass + 130 m2 PV

Advanced Int'mediate Int'mediate Int'mediate Advanced Advanced Advanced EE only 119 kW 221 m2 PV 198 kW 20 kW 58 kW 205 kW wind GSHP wind GSHP biomass + 3 m2 PV

Advanced energy efficiency + 58 kW GSHP = 50% CO2 reduction Additional cost 5.2%

Payback periods: Primary school

Annual fuel price inflation 25A 25B/E 25C 25D 37A 37B 37C 37D 37E 50A 50B 50C 50D 50E Intermediate no upgrade no upgrade Intermediate Advanced no upgrade no upgrade Intermediate Intermediate no upgrade Intermediate Intermediate Advanced Advanced no LCE Biomass / GSHP Large wind PV no LCE Biomass Large wind PV GSHP Biomass Large wind GSHP + small wind Small wind + PV GSHP RPI + 3% RPI + 5% 45 45 59 60 RPI + 10% 34 23 35 32 23 38 49 30 55 31 46 RPI + 15% 24 18 24 23 17 25 33 21 36 22 31

Secondary school, 24,401,048: CO2 emissions / on-costs

300 Tonnes CO2 Baseline 269.7 tonnes CO2 169.9 = 37% reduction 134.9 = 50% reduction % on-costs 7

250

5 200 37% 150 50% 3 100 2 50 4

0
Baseline 85 kW wind 112 kW wind 311 kW biomass 173 kW wind

112 kW wind = 50% CO2 reduction Additional cost 0.8%

394 kW Int'mediate 437 kW biomass 53 m2 biomass + 20 kW solar HW + 123 m2 wind + 20 kW PV wind

437 kW biomass + 76 kW wind

Advanced energy efficiency + 78m2 solar HW = 50% CO reduction Additional cost 3.2%

167 m2 Advanced Advanced Advanced solar HW 78 m2 190 m2 423 kW + 437 m2 solar HW solar HW biomass GSHP + 423 kW + 530 m2 GSHP PV + 20 kW 2 wind + 116 m2 PV

Payback periods: Secondary school

Annual fuel price inflation 25A 25/37B 25C 25D 25E 37A 37C 37D 37E 50A 50B/C 50D 50E Intermediate no upgrade no upgrade no upgrade no upgrade Advanced no upgrade no upgrade no upgrade no upgrade no upgrade Advanced Intermediate no LCE Biomass Large wind Solar HW + PV Small wind + solar HW no LCE Large wind GSHP + solar HW Small wind + solar HW Large wind Biomass + small / PV Solar HW Small wind + solar HW RPI + 3% 10 (12 RPI) 36 21 10 (11 RPI) 47 9 (11 RPI) 59 44 RPI + 5% 38 9 22 18 40 9 33 9 37 31 RPI + 10% 23 8 16 14 23 8 47 20 7 22 19 RPI + 15% 17 7 13 11 18 7 32 16 7 17 15

City centre office, 29,905,117: CO2 emissions / on-costs

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Baseline Int'mediate Int'mediate 179 kW biomass 140 m2 PV + 12 kW wind + 30 m2 solar HW Advanced EE only

Tonnes CO2
Baseline 366.1 tonnes CO2 274.6 = 25% reduction 230.6 = 37% reduction 183.1 = 50% reduction

% on-costs

25% 37% 50%

Advanced energy efficiency PLUS 494m2 PV + 209kW biomass + 12kW wind + 30m2 solar HW (maximum capacity, all LCE) = 42% CO reductionAdvanced Advanced Int'mediate Advanced 2 Advanced energy saving 248 kW 44.1% 286 m2 delivered PV 209 kW 266 m2 PV 494 m2 PV GSHP + 18 kW biomass + 209 kW + 209 kW Additional cost 5.9% + 12 kW CHP + 162 m2 PV GSHP biomass
wind + 12 kW wind + 12 kW wind + 12 kW wind + 12 kW wind + 30 m2 solar HW

Payback periods: City centre office

Energy efficiency 25A 25B 25C 25D 25E 37A 37B/C 42 Advanced Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Advanced Advanced Advanced Low carbon equipment no LCE Biomass Microwind, solar HW, PV Microwind, GSHP Microwind, CHP Microwind, CHP, PV Microwind, Biomass or GSHP, PV Microwind, Biomass, Solar HW, PV Annual fuel price inflation RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15%

49 53 60

27 34 28 32 33 30 32 38

19 23 20 22 23 21 22 27

Energy consumption breakdown (regulated energy uses)

Heating Cooling Auxilliary Lighting DHW Total

Primary school Secondary school City centre office Retail warehouse

MWh
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

City centre office: architectural strategies / services efficiencies etc

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Tonnes CO2

% on-costs

3.5 3.0

25% 37% 50%

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0

Passive chilled beams 0.5 Reduced glazing Highly efficient lighting Advanced plant efficiencies 0.0 S11 S6 S8 S10 S12 + 380 kW biomass heating = 50% CO2 reduction Passive chilled beams and reduced 38% delivered energy saving glazing PLUS highly efficient lighting, Additional cost 1.9%
advanced plant efficiencies, PLUS 380 kW biomass heating =

Baseline

S1

Passive chilled beams Reduced glazing S2 S3 S5 S9 S4 Highly efficient lighting = 31% CO2 reduction Passive chilled beams and 27% delivered energy saving reduced glazing PLUS Additional cost 0.4%
highly efficient lighting = 31.2% fewer emissions,

S7

Retail warehouse, 5,447,779: CO2 emissions / on-costs

350 Tonnes CO2 Baseline 328.4 tonnes CO2 246.3 = 25% 206.9 = 37% reduction 164.2 = 50% reduction % on-costs 14

300
25% 37% 50%

12

250

10

200

150

100

50

0
Baseline Int'mediate Advanced Int'mediate5 Int'mediate EE only EE only 2 m2 PV 90 kW + 51 kW wind biomass + 51 kW biomass

Advanced energy efficiency 48 kW biomass heating + 284 m2 PV / 166 kW wind = 50% CO2 reduction 47 - 49% delivered energy savings Additional cost Advanced 11.7 11.8% Int'mediate Advanced Advanced Advanced
152 m2 PV + 8 m2 solar HW 284 m2 PV + 48 kW biomass 166 kW wind + 48 kW biomass 353 m2 PV + 8 m2 solar HW 327 m2 PV + 48 kW GSHP

Payback periods: Retail warehouse

Annual fuel price inflation 25A 25B 37A 37B 37C 37D 37E 50A 50B 50C 50D 50E Intermediate no upgrade Advanced Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced no LCE Biomass + Large wind + PV no LCE Solar HW + PV Biomass + Large wind GSHP + PV Biomass + PV Biomass + PV Solar HW + PV GSHP + PV Biomass + Large wind GSHP + Large wind RPI + 3% RPI + 5% RPI + 10% RPI + 15%

8 (9 RPI) 12 (15 RPI) 21 (50 RPI) 30 24 32 43 24 32 36 32

7 11 18 21 20 21 30 20 21 24 22

6 38 9 13 14 14 14 17 15 15 16 15

6 25 8 11 11 12 11 13 12 12 13 12

Retail warehouse: architectural strategies / services efficiencies etc Highly efficient luminaires + daylight dimming = 37% CO2 reduction 32% delivered energy saving Additional cost 1.3% Ultra efficient luminaires + daylight dimming + 108 kW wind = 50% CO2 reduction 42% delivered energy saving Additional cost 5.4%

Energy performance modelling: Differences between DSM and SBEM

Comparison of DSM and SBEM results for CO2 emissions Primary school TER kgCO2/m2/ annum DSM results SBEM results DSM - SBEM 19.91 29.69 -9.79 Secondary Office school building 23.11 32.69 -9.58 32.60 48.97 -16.37 Retail warehouse 63.86 76.70 -12.84

Impact on CO2 emissions of energy efficiency upgrades Intermediate energy efficiency upgrade Advanced energy efficiency upgrade DSM modelling SBEM modelling DSM modelling SBEM modelling 22.9% 4.3% 43.0% 22.9% 24.1% 6.4% 40.2% 24.1% 19.5% 23.6% 27.6% 36.1% 31.8% 26.8% 43.6% 37.4%

Energy performance modelling: differences in results using DSM and SBEM

Energy use calculations: SBEM monthly, DSM hourly Lighting energy use assumptions: - SBEM varies energy use with floor area, areas of windows and rooflights (assumes people turn their lights off in high levels of natural daylight) - allowance for reduction in lighting due to daylight and motion sensing switching and controls Inputs Different levels of input data, different ways to input information + Differences between buildings Differences in the energy load profiles of the buildings studied (office has higher level of cooling and auxiliary energy than the other buildings studied)

Energy performance modelling: DSM and SBEM baselines

Additional capital costs of cheapest improvement scenarios to achieve specified levels of CO2 reductions DSM baseline buildings DSM modelling
CO2 reductions Primary Secondary Office Retail

SBEM baseline buildings SBEM modelling

Primary Secondary Office Retail

25% 30% 37% 50% 80%

0.5 3.4% 0.8 3.9% 1.2 5.0% 1.9 5.2% 4.0 8.9%

0.4 0.8% 0.5 1.8% 0.6 2.1% 0.8 2.5% 1.2 6.6%

2.9 3.3% 3.4 4.0% 3.5 5.0% 5.7% ?

2.6 % 2.6 % 5.7 8.0% 11.7 12.6% ?

1.0 1.8% 1.2 3.7% 1.5 3.7% 2.0 6.3% 3.3 4.1%

0.7 1.4% 0.9 2.6% 1.1 2.9% 1.4 3.8% 2.1 13.0%

1.1 2.5% 1.4 3.3% 1.8 3.3% 3.8 5.2% ?

2.2 2.6 % 2.5 5.0% 3.0 5.7% 3.8 7.3 % ?

Pilot project: Embodied CO2 and energy paybacks

Davis Langdon LLP

Pilot project: Embodied CO2 and energy paybacks

1 SELECT BASELINES - City centre office; 2 houses, 1 flat, 2007 energy standards - Davis Langdon materials database (Bath ICE, own data) - SimaPro v 7.0.2 (LCA software), - Baseline CO2 footprint embodied CO2, CO2 emissions 2 APPLY IMPROVEMENT SCENARIOS - Energy efficiency measures (insulation, airtightness, boiler efficiency, lighting) + low carbon equipment; or Architectural measures + services efficiencies - Embodied CO2 of improvement scenarios 3 EVALUATE IMPACTS Assumed 60 years occupancy, snapshot at 35 years Embodied CO2 / CO2 emissions reductions = CO2 payback periods

Frame, 2,490

M&E Services , 1793

Substructures, 1,359

Total embodied CO2: Total annual emissions:

Upper floors, 1,292

Floor finishes, 966

Windows and external doors, 423

9,354 Tonnes 366 Tonnes

Ceiling finishes, 266

Embodied CO2: city centre office building

Roof, 262

Internal walls/partitions and doors, 241

External walls, 205

Stairs, 32

Wall finishes, 25

Embodied CO2: improvement scenarios

2.45 yrs

2.38 yrs 0 yrs

Assessment of the viability of District Heating / CHP

Parsons Brinckerhoff Energy Systems

Heat Supply Options Assessment tool: inputs

Heat Supply Options Assessment tool: example results

Research and consultations: www.sbsa.gov.uk

linda.sheridan@scotland.gsi.gov.uk