MS1S421 - Coursework 1

1.) A survey of 22565 computers shows the following errors which occur independently of each other: Monitor Hard drive Microsoft Outlook Explorer USB 8697 4857 3743 2934 2334

(a) What is the probability that a randomly sampled computer would have an error with its monitor? (b) What is the probability that a randomly sampled computer would have an error with hardware? (c) Given this data, are software or hardware problems more likely to occur (give a reason for your answer)? (d) If you sampled 200 computers, how many would you expect to have a USB error? (3 marks)

2.) In a factory a large batch of components contains 15% which are defective. If three components are tested one at a time, nd the probability that: (a) the rst and the third components are defective but the second is not. (b) exactly two defective components will be found. (c) the third one is defectiive. Comment on your result for part (c); could this result have been predicted with no calculations? (5 marks) 3.) The following table shows the numbers of computers xed at each stage of the process of repair (i.e. rst the user tries to x the computer themselves, if that fails then they ring the helpline, if that fails then they call out IT support to x the computer. Stage Fixed Without any IT Support Fixed with advice from helpline Fixed after a visit from IT support Probability 146 out of every 200 computers 323 out of every 998 computers 65 out of every 149 computers

(a) Draw a probability tree of this procedure, giving all probabilities as fractions in their lowest terms. (b) Using your probability tree calculate the probability that your computer will be xed (give your answer to 2DP). (c) Calculate the probability that the computer will not be xed at all (give your answer to 2DP). (4 marks)

4.) A business is deciding whether to upgrade their network infrastructure to bre optic, wireless or to stick with their original hardwired conguration, under two conditions: good economic conditions or poor economic conditions. The payoff matrix describes the payoff the company will receive from each situation. Economic Conditions Decision Fibre Optic Wireless Original Hard Wire Good Conditions 58,000 121,000 37,000 Bad Conditions 31,000 -40,000 65,000

(a) Use the maximax, maximin, minimax (regret criterion) and the Laplace criterion to decide, for each, which option will give the best return. Combine your results to give one decision. (b) If the probability of good economic conditions is 0.62 and the probability of bad economic conditions is 0.38, calculate the expected values for each of the options. (c) Which of these decision criteria do you think produces the most reliable decision? (6 marks)

5.) A website records the visitors it has to its site. The websites records suggest that the length of a visit can be modelled by a normal distribution. The following gives the length of time spent by each of 40 visitors to a website: 161 153 161 187 154 173 131 147 149 138 142 157 162 164 163 166 192 188 183 176 157 135 127 167 162 165 197 149 158 177 154 158 174 166 158 172 157 175 183 142

(a) Construct an ordered stem-and-leaf diagram to represent this data. (b) Represent the above information in an appropriate graph. (c) Find the averages for this data, and the standard deviation. (d) Find the probability that a visit lasts less than 140 minutes. (e) What proportion of visitors are supposed to have a visit length of between 170 and 190 minutes? (7 marks)