Another Climate Change

Threat Assessment

Template for Reducing the

Effects of Climate Change
Across our Nation

A Work in Progress – Sept 2008 Edition

Graham Bates

Maroochydore QLD 4558

Tel: 07 5329 2009

Mob: 0418 569000

Email: icebergs@internode.on.net
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Version 1

Copyright © Graham Bates & Darryl Rigby – 2006 - 2008

PO Box 5442

Maroochydore QLD 4558

Notes: This paper is a collation and update of 3 previous papers dealing with the Climate
Change Challenge.

1. Use of recycling in Carbon Emission Offsets/Trading for Heavy Industry

“Recycling – Hot Topic or Just Hot Air?”

2. Drought Mitigation for South-West Victoria and the Lower Murray Basin –
“The Clever Country – Dying of Thirst.”

3. Development of new vehicles and tactics for addressing the increased threat of
Bushfires and Firestorms, co-authored with Darryl Rigby Esq. – former Victorian
CFA Fire-fighter with the Urban Division.
“New Recruits for our Ashes Team.”

This integrated Action Plan provides one roadmap for better national outcomes.

The April 2007 editions of may be accessed at the link below.

http://arewetheclevercountry.blogspot.com/

2
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Executive Summary ___________________________________________________5

Introduction _________________________________________________________8
Current Situation ____________________________________________________13
The Big Picture _________________________________________________________ 13
Region of Interest _______________________________________________________ 15
Groundwater Reserves ___________________________________________________ 16
Median Rainfall Outlook _________________________________________________ 17
The Case for Desalination _____________________________________________18
Desalination Plants ______________________________________________________ 19
Energy Costs ____________________________________________________21
Why Portland _______________________________________________________22
Portland Aluminium Smelter _____________________________________________ 22
Key Elements___________________________________________________________ 22
Bushfire Risk _______________________________________________________24
Background – Armoured Warfare _________________________________________ 25
Problems in Fighting Bushfires ________________________________________26
Armoured Strike Teams _______________________________________________30
Other Armoured Variants _____________________________________________33
Australian Built Fire King_____________________________________________34
Conclusion _________________________________________________________37
The need for action ______________________________________________________ 37

3
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Water Basics

What is a Megalitre?

One Megalitre (ML) is 1 million litres, or 1,000 cubic metres.

One Megalitre covers approximately 1 square kilometre to a depth of 1 millimetre.

One Megalitre is about equal to the volume of 1 Olympic sized swimming pool. 1

What is a Gigalitre?

One Gigalitre (GL) is 1,000 million litres.

One Gigalitre is approximately equal to the volume of 1,000 Olympic sized

swimming pools.

Significant events since the April 2007 editions include:

1. Skyrocketing prices of oil and energy resources.
2. Cost increases to build power stations.
3. Ever decreasing inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin [MDB]2 , which
threaten imminent collapse to our rural communities.
4. Rising salinity levels and falling Murray River3 inflows are killing the
Coorong and Lake Alexandrina.
5. Commonwealth plans to implement a Carbon Trading Scheme by
2010.
6. Financial system instability since the Global credit crisis – changes in
the stability of money supply for infrastructure development.
1
DPI Victoria Website: http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/pages/pavs
2 th
Article by Chris Hammer, The Age, 11 July, 2008, website: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/dire-
outlook-for-sick-murray-as-inflows-drop-20080710-3d6x.html
3 st
ABC Catalyst, 1 May, 2008 edition, website: http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/2232818.htm

4
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Executive Summary
This is an Action Plan to counter the critical drought crisis facing Southern Regions of
our ‘Clever Country’ – Australia.

This plan hinges upon:

1. Sourcing new water for the Murray River – According to Prof. Mike
Young, inflows of 2,000 Gigalitres per annum are required, just to sustain
the Murray River segment of the Murray Darling Basin.

2. A potential source for this vast amount of water has already been reported
by Mr. Kenneth Davidson4 , a Senior Journalist with ‘The Age’. His
proposal hinges upon piping water via submarine pipeline from Tasmania
to Victoria/Melbourne.

In an effort to reduce stress on the Murray River caused by outflows along the
Goldfields Superpipe [linking Bendigo and Ballarat], additional measures
include:

1. Construction of a Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) Desalination Plant at

Portland, Victoria.

2. Utilise 2 methods of reducing heat energy operating costs by:

a. Incorporating the massive heat byproduct generated by the Portland

Aluminium Smelter via Heat Exchanger Technology5 .

b. Sourcing the proven geothermal resource 1,400 metres below Portland.

3. Concurrently develop water infrastructure [pipelines and pumping stations]

for supplying potable water from the Portland Area Groundwater Reserves,
with a total drawdown capacity of approx 60,000 Ml p/a, northward to:

a. Hamilton, Mortlake and Ballarat with links to other major towns and
communities along this route. Distance is approx 290 kms.

b. Origin Energy has announced that it is committed to proceed with the

construction of a 550 MW Gas-Fired Power Station near Mortlake6 .

4
An article by Kenneth Davidson, entitled, “No Pipe Dream – Tasmania could Save the Murray”, The
nd
Age, 22 July, 2008, website: http://business.theage.com.au/business/no-pipe-dream-tasmania-could-save-
the-murray-20080721-3ivi.html

5
See Fact File (pdf file) on Dubai Aluminium – Smelter and Desalination Plant Cogeneration Project –
website : http://www.dubal.ae/mediacentre/news.aspx
6
‘Mortlake Power Project’ announcement on the Origin Energy website:
http://www.originenergy.com.au/1376/Mortlake-Power-Station-Project

5
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

c. Santos has announced plans for the construction of a 550 MW Gas

Fired Power Station, at Orford7 , near Port Fairy, which will also require
water for operational purposes.

d. Beaconsfield Gold [ASX: BCD] has recently announced the discovery

of a significant high grade copper, gold, nickel and silver deposit near
the Grampians8 in Victoria [Hamilton – Mortlake highway] – the
extent of the resource is still being analysed, however, if mining begins,
there will be a significant increase in the demand for water for the mine,
and associated population increase.

4. Ensure that a proportion of this water flows into the Murray River enabling
both environmental flows and extraction downriver for the Adelaide water
supply.

5. Establish consistent recharge of water into depleted Groundwater systems

from the Desalination Plant.

6. Utilise this additional water for the ongoing development and maintenance of
long-term drought & bushfire mitigation programmes for topsoils,
groundcover and shelterbelts in the Western & Central Districts of Victoria.

7 st
Premier of Victoria announcement of 21 August, 2008: website: http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/minister-
for-energy-resources/new-gas-fired-power-station-means-jobs-for-victoria.html
8
‘August 2008 Broker Presentation’, by Beaconsfield Gold, website with PDF file:
http://www.beaconsfieldgold.com.au/Presentation0808/asx190808bcd.pdf

6
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

We therefore need to:

1. Secure guaranteed water resources to feed & water our population, increase
groundcover and protect valuable topsoils from erosion.

2. Switch our energy generation capacity from bulk unprocessed coal-based

fossil fuels in a step-by-step method to:

a. Introduction of briquette value-added coal processing that can reduce

Carbon & NOX emissions by up to 50% - clean coal technology.

b. Replace older Coal-fired Power Stations with Coal Seam Gas [CSG]
and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG] power generating systems that
incorporate the Cogeneration Process9 , [Combined Heat &
Power]10 , thereby increasing power station efficiency from 35% up to
90%.

c. Accelerate the development of geothermal, wind and solar renewable

energy generating systems for inclusion into the National Grid.

9
The ‘Cogeneration Fact Sheet’, 2007 Publication by The Clean Energy Council Website:
http://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/info/Cogeneration%20Fact%20Sheet%20-
%20Clean%20Energy%20Council.pdf
10
EC-ASEAN Asian Conference Presentation, August 2002, website, page 5:
http://www.cogen3.net/presentations/asean/cogen_tech_env_benefits.pdf

7
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Introduction
There has been much debate about whether Climate Change is a fact or a myth. The
exponential growth of scientific evidence is now clearly indicating that we are heading
into a paradigm shift in global weather patterns.

Much of the major scientific focus has recently been on Climate Change Effects on
our Cryosphere.11

A project currently being conducted by Associate Professor Ross Edwards of the

Desert Research Institute12 in the US, is to research Antarctic Ice-Cap Meltdown
which is being driven by:

1. Pollution from Industry, Coal Fired Power Stations, bushfires & firestorms,
including fires created for land clearing. These aerosol pollutants are then
carried within air currents over the Ice-Caps where they are deposited onto
Greenland, the Arctic and Antarctica.

2. Photo-chemical pollutant molecules, including Black Carbon [BC], then

blanket the snow and ice-cover.

3. This film of pollution reduces the Reflectivity Index [Albedo Effect]13 of the
snow, thereby increasing the heat absorption rates. Only subtle amounts of
pollution are required to increase the snow-melt rates, as per the graphic below,
[courtesy of Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal].

11
‘The Green Lane’ - Environment Canada’s website:
http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/crysys/education/crysys_education_e.cfm
Definition: That portion of the climate system consisting of the world's ice masses and snow deposits
including snow, solid precipitation, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, ice sheets, ice caps and
glaciers, including sea, river, and lake ice.

12
Desert Research Institute website: http://www.dri.edu/
13
‘Climate change - Ice & Snow and the Albedo Effect’,
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-ice-and-snow-and-the-albedo-effect

8
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

As the Principal Investigator, Ross Edwards has been awarded funding from the
US National Science Foundation14 to undertake the project. The rationale for the
investigation includes:

“The intellectual merit of this project is that black carbon (BC) aerosols 
result solely from combustion and play a critical but poorly quantified role 
in global climate forcing and the carbon cycle.  
When incorporated into snow and ice, BC increases absorption of solar 
radiation making seasonal snow packs, mountain glaciers, polar ice sheets, 
and sea ice much more vulnerable to climate warming.”  
 
“BC emissions in the Southern Hemisphere are dominated by biomass 
burning in the tropical regions of Southern Africa, South America and 
South Asia. Biomass burning, which results from both climate and human 
activities, alters the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gases, aerosols 
and perturbs key biogeochemical cycles.  
 
“The broader impacts of the project are that it represents a paradigm shift 
in our ability to reconstruct the history of fire from ice core records and to 
understand its impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate over 
millennial time scales.  
 
This type of data is especially needed to drive global circulation model 
simulations of black carbon aerosols, which have been found to be an 
important component of global warming and which may be perturbing the 
hydrologic cycle.” 

14
US National Science Foundation website:
http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0739780

9
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Substantial destruction of Australian forests and biomass by bushfires in 2003 within

the ACT resulted in the Canberra Firestorm15 – in this event 4 people died and over
500 homes were destroyed within the National Capital.

The Gippsland Bushfires16 of 2006, which destroyed over 1 million hectares of

bushland, farms and forests. This event created massive Green House Gas [GHG]
emissions and the smoke plume was last seen on satellite imagery heading south-east,
probably increasing the levels of BC pollution in Antarctica.

For Australians, this reality is reflected in the continuation of low rainfall events in the
southern parts of the continent over the past 10 years.

The main thrust of the debate in how to address our chronic drought crisis has
revolved around how much funding should be put into irrigation buy-back schemes.

Commonwealth and State Governments are already committing hundreds of millions

of dollars in Drought Relief Programmes. Whilst these measures will assist the rural
community during this drought, they will never provide a solution to future low
rainfall events – lack of water.

The city of Ballarat, 1 hour north-west of Melbourne, is an example of how bad things
can become. This graph of the Central Highlands Water17 storages within the Ballarat
District provides a stark example of the ongoing crisis.

15
ABC TV - Catalyst website on Canberra Firestorm: http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s794270.htm

16
Article by Dan Oakes & Daniella Miletic entitled ‘Gippsland Towns Brace for Weekend fire Onslaught’
from The Age newspaper website: http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/gippsland-towns-bracing-for-
weekend-fire-onslaught/2006/12/06/1165081019861.html
17
Central Highlands Water website: http://www.chw.net.au/water_storage.html

10
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

We have not yet reached the hot summer months, what then?

Whilst Ballarat is not located within the Murray-Darling Basin, it is drawing water
from the Goldfields Superpipe, which connects the Murray-Goulburn system to
Bendigo and Ballarat.

Meanwhile, the MDB crisis is worsening because of the continuing drought

conditions. The Coorong area at the mouth of the River Murray is close to
collapse and irrevocable damage 18 .

An article in TheWashington Post, 19 by Doug Struck in late 2007, reports that

the UN has warned that we have only 7 years to end emissions growth.

“To  avoid  heating  the  globe  by  the  minimum  possible,  an  average  of  2 
degrees Celsius, the worldʹs spiralling growth in greenhouse gas emissions 
must  end  no  later  than  2015,  and  the  report  said,  and  must  start  to  drop 
quickly after that peak.  

By  2050,  carbon  dioxide  and  other  atmospheric  polluting  gases  must  be 
reduced by 50 to 85 percent, according to the estimates.”  

In another article in ‘Science’ magazine, by Thomas Stocker, 20 from the Physics

Institute of the University of Bern, Switzerland:

“Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are the highest they have been in 
650,000 years, according to the first in‐depth analysis of tiny air bubbles 
trapped in an ice core from East Antarctica.  

In two articles analysing air from the ice core published in the journal 
ʺScienceʺ today, European researchers have extended the greenhouse gas 
record back to 650,000 years before the present, adding 210,000 years to 
previous records.  

One study chronicles the stable relationship between climate and the 
carbon cycle during the Pleistocene Era, 390,000 to 650,000 years before the 

18 st
ABC Catalyst, 1 May, 2008 edition, website: http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/2232818.htm
19
Washington Post website: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/11/17/AR2007111700566.html
20
Environment News Service website: http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2005/2005-11-25-04.asp

11
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

present. The second one documents atmospheric methane and nitrous 
oxide levels over the same period.  

The analysis shows that today’s rising atmospheric carbon dioxide 
concentration, at 380 parts per million by volume, is now 27 percent higher 
than its highest recorded level during the last 650,000 years.”

This would require a drastic reworking of industrial processes, transportation,

agricultural practices and even the buildings people live in, according to this
report.

12
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Current Situation

The Big Picture

The average rainfall trends for the past 50 years for Australia are clearly displayed in
the Bureau of Meteorology Map (BOM) below.

It is evident that many high population areas along the Eastern and Western Seaboard
are receiving significantly less rainfall over the past 50 years – population and water
demand is upwards – but the rainfall trend is downwards.

Less rainfall will see a reduction in the harvests from Australia’s Food Bowl –
declining grain harvests and decreases of livestock within sheep/cattle growing areas.

This will have a serious effect on our Primary Production at a time when:

• There are food riots across the globe21 as a result of dramatic rises in staple
foods, droughts, hurricanes, typhoons, floods and a reduction in food
production.

21
Article entitled, ‘World’s New Crisis – Soaring Food Prices’, by Lesley Wroughton & Jewel Topsfield in
th
The Age, 15 April, 2008, website: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/14/1208025091644.html

13
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

• Transport costs have risen sharply because of recent spikes in fuel and energy
costs.

The Rainfall Deficiencies map from the BOM22 for the past 15 months to August
2008 clearly illustrates that the continuing low rainfall pattern continues.

This is a pattern that continues from the 2002 – 2003 drought, which had very serious
consequences for the nation.

The Department of the Treasury compiled a full Report on the Economic effects of
this drought, as per their web reference.23

22
Bureau of Meteorology website: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml#map2
23
Dept of Treasury Report, website.
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/817/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=03_article_2.asp

14
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Region of Interest
The Region of Interest (ROI) of this paper encompasses the Southwest, Western and
the Lower Murray Basin in Victoria. The area extends from the Southern Victorian
coastline around Portland, northwards to the Murray River in the Mildura/Swan Hill
region.

Much of this area, including the Mallee and Wimmera districts are under a continuing
cycle of serious drought. The Victorian Dept of Primary Industries – Storage Level
Report at the 8th of September, 2008, reflects a truly gloomy picture across Victoria, as
per the map below.

15
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Groundwater Reserves
The groundwater reserves are also becoming an increasing concern. There are no
rising levels in our groundwater24 reserves.

This adds weight to the proposal that both surface, and aquifer resources, require a
realistic replenishment plan.

24
‘Our Water, Our Future’, Victorian Government website:
http://www.ourwater.vic.gov.au/monitoring/monthly/groundwater_levels/map_of_groundwater_levels

16
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Median Rainfall Outlook

The outlook for September – November 2008 does not hold much promise for
above-average rainfall within the MDB area, as this graphic from the National Climate
Centre25 illustrates.

MODEL / 2-4 MONTHS 5-7 MONTHS

Forecast Start Date
GROUP (Oct to Dec) (Jan to Mar 09)
POAMA
4 August - 2 September Neutral Neutral
(run at Bureau of Met)
System 3
01 August Neutral Neutral #
ECMWF
GloSea
01 August Neutral Not Available
UK Met Office
CSF
23 August - 1 September Neutral Neutral
NCEP
CGCMv1
August Neutral Neutral
GMAO/NASA
JMA-CGCM02
July Neutral Neutral #
Japan Met. Agency

The long-range Model Outlook26 from the ENSO website from August 2008,
forecasting to March, 2009 shows no rainfall pattern increase up to Spring 2009.

25
National Climate Centre website:
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20080725R.shtml
26
Model Outlooks for ENSO Conditions: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

17
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

The Case for Desalination

“I love a sunburnt country, A land of sweeping plains, 

Of ragged mountain ranges, Of droughts and flooding rains.” 27

             Dorothea Mackellar 

We no longer experience the same weather patterns that Dorethea Mackellar did when
she penned her observations about the ‘flooding rains’ that recharge the rivers, streams
and aquifers.

Compelling reasons for the construction of a Thermal Desalination Plant in Western

Victoria include:

• High risk of rural sector collapse without new sources of water. Significant
reductions of primary production exports.

• An increase in farm walkouts, in an article28 entitled ‘Farmers Abandoning

Drought-Hit Properties’, by Kelly Ryan, in The Australian, on 13th
October, 2006.

• In a CSIRO publication29 entitled ‘Climate Change Impacts on Fire

Weather in South-east Australia’, by K. Hennessy, C. Lucas, N. Nicholls, J.
Bathols, R. Suppiah, & J. Ricketts in 2006, there is evidence of increasing risk
of Bushfires & Firestorms because of future hotter and drier weather
conditions.

• Litigation – In an article entitled ‘Farmers Sue State over Bushfires’,

reported in The Age, by AAP on 22nd March, 2007 – class action in relation to
The Christmas 2006 bushfires in the Gippsland area – launched by Slidders
Lawyers30 in Melbourne on behalf of more than 500 residents who have
suffered damage as a result of these bushfires and firestorms.

• Erosion – Drought reduces groundcover, precious topsoils are at extreme risk

of eroding during dust storms. This begins a cycle of soil degradation and loss

27
Poem – ‘My Country’, by Dorothea Mackellar : http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/archive.asp

28
The Australian website: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20573211-5006785,00.html
29
CSIRO website: http://www.csiro.au/science/ps17j.html
30
Article from AAP sources in The Age, entitled ‘Farmers sue State Government’, website:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/farmers-sue-state-over-bushfires/2007/03/22/1174153243088.html

18
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

that becomes even more serious if long-term drought is followed by flooding

rains.

• Topsoils – This Department of Primary Industries (Victoria) paper,

entitled ‘Paddock Protection & Stock Management During Dry
Times’, by John Williamson 31 of Bendigo spells out the facts about topsoil
loss.

“In dry periods, soils become more susceptible to wind erosion as a result 
of  the  removal  of  the  protective  vegetative  soil  cover.  This  is  caused  by 
stock  grazing  and  the  trampling  of  the  soil  surface  degrading  the  soil 
structure.  

As a consequence, strong winds are able to erode soil particles, depositing 
them  either  as  drifts  along  fence  lines  or  at  locations  up  to  thousands  of 
kilometres away. Eroded soils and animal  manure can foul both domestic 
and stock water supplies decreasing the potability of the water.”  

“Sandy soils are renowned for blowing during dry periods, however all soil 
types are susceptible. 

Erosion  of  topsoils  by  wind  takes  with  it  nutrients  such  as  nitrogen, 
phosphorous and organic carbon all of which are vital for the health of the 
soil and production.”  

“With every 1 mm of topsoil eroded, approximately 13 t/ha of topsoil, 130 
kg/ha of organic carbon, 20 kg/ha of nitrogen equivalent to 40 kg of urea 
and 8 kg/ha of phosphorous equivalent to 100 kg of superphosphate are 
lost.  

Phosphorous  and  some  nitrogen  can  be  replaced  through  fertilizer 

however  organic  carbon  and  nitrogen  take  years  of  appropriate 
management to build‐up in soils. 

Desalination Plants
There are several types of desalination plants. The major ones include:

1. Multistage Flash Desalination (MSF) – a thermal process – seawater is

first heated under high pressure before being fed into the 1st ‘flash’
chamber, where rapid pressure release causes the seawater to quickly boil.
This ‘flashing’ process evaporates some of the seawater, and the process
continues through more ‘flash chambers’, each with a step-down in
31
Victorian Department of Primary Industry, website:
http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/nreninf.nsf/childdocs/-2BAF4D73531CD1544A2568B3000505AF-
BFCF7D5EBE9AE2BCCA256BC80004E969-7AB5497C04B0FFE84A256DEA00296590-
49FE3D171C310C51CA256BCF000AD4F1?open

19
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

ambient pressure. The water vapour generated in this process is condensed

and collected from tubing cooled by the seawater feed. Only a small
percentage of the incoming seawater-feed is evaporated and collected. This
method produces about 84% of the world’s potable water from Thermal
Methods. Most of these plants have been built in the Middle East where
energy reserves are plentiful. The main problem with these plants is high
construction, materials & operating costs. The ‘flash’ chambers require the
best quality stainless steel in tubes and chambers32 , to prevent scale build-
up, thereby reducing effectiveness.

2. Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) – also a thermal process – similar to

the MSF process, however the seawater-feed is not heated under high
pressure. In the MED chambers, reduced ambient pressure is used to boil
water at lower temperatures. Saltwater boils at slightly above 100O C at
Standard Temperature and Pressure (STP). With the reduced pressure
effect within the MED Chambers, it boils at about 65O C 33 . This
significantly reduces the energy and therefore the operating costs to run the
facility. Higher numbers of chambers (Effects) equates to higher
performance ratios.34

3. Reverse Osmosis (RO) – a non-thermal filtration process using

membrane technology – saltwater is pumped at high pressures of 800 to
1,000 psi through a semi-permeable membrane. There are numerous
stages involved in the pre-treatment process, depending on the
contamination levels of the saltwater-feed – i.e. suspended solids and
divalent ions like Calcium and Magnesium. This process is prevalent in the
US, where energy costs are too high for thermal processes.35

Of these processes, MED would appear to provide the best value with its low
temperature operational costs, particularly when Cogeneration and Geothermal
resources are combined within the Energy Cycle.

There is also the requirement that sterile water be used for aquifer recharge due to a
seabourne virus within Victoria that causes ganglioneuritis, a herpes-like disease that
is killing the wild abalone.36 This may appear to seriously compromise any
desalination effort by a filtration process using Reverse Osmosis (RO) methods.

Strict quarantine protocols will be required for any process where water is directly
injected into aquifers during the recharge process.

32
‘Introduction to Water Desalination’, by Hari J Krishna
http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/Desalination/The%20Future%20of%20Desalination%20in%20Texas%20-
%20Volume%202/documents/C1.pdf
33
‘Distillation Plant Development and Cost Update’, by Neil M Wade, page 7 Website:
http://www.desline.com/articoli/4051.pdf
34
Ibid.
35
Ibid.
36 th
ABC Rural Program of 6 June, 2006, website:
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/regions/content/2006/s1655934.htm

20
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Energy Costs

The on-going operational energy costs for an MED desalination plant should be
drastically reduced by using the 2 significant heat resources within the Portland area:

1. Heat byproduct of the smelting process at (PA) Portland Aluminium.

Management at PA have expressed an interest in this concept.

2. Portland Geothermal Bores. A number of bores had been in service from

the early 1980s. The Portland #14 bore flowed under artesian pressure of
up to 90L/sec at approx 60O C.37 Other bores produced 74 O C. Whilst
this bore has been recently decommissioned, this site has proven potential
for redevelopment.

3. The full report by SKM (Sinclair Knight Merz) provides 10 pages of detail
about the Portland Geothermal Bore field.

Full costings for such a plant are dependent upon plant type, size, and energy sources,
however, the 2 papers listed below provide comprehensive details:

• A paper by Neil M Wade38 of the UK, entitled ‘Distillation Plant

Development and Cost Update’, compares the various available
desalination processes.

• Conference paper by J.E. Blank, G.F. Tusel & S. Nisan, entitled, ‘The
Real Cost of Desalted Water and how to Reduce it Further’39 ,
presented at the Conference on Desalination Strategies in South
Mediterranean Countries – Cooperation between
Mediterranean Countries of Europe and the Southern Rim of
the Mediterranean on 21–25 May 2006, at Montpellier, France.
The authors have researched those major Desalting processes
[including RO, MED] that will be operating in 25 years. There are
direct links between each process, the cost of energy, oil and type of
Power Generation used, to provide Industry with informed options
that suit their particular needs.

37
Victorian Dept of Sustainability Report prepared by SKM in collaboration with Monash University
pp 66-76 website: http://www.sustainability.vic.gov.au/resources/documents/SKM_Geothermal_Report.pdf
38
‘Distillation Plant Development and Cost Update’, by Neil M Wade, website:
http://www.desline.com/articoli/4051.pdf
39
Desalination Online Directory, hosted by Miriam Balaban, website:
http://www.desline.com/articoli/8147.pdf

21
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Why Portland

Portland Aluminium Smelter

This facility generates in excess of 340,000 tonnes of Aluminium per annum. The
smelter is managed by Alcoa and uses approx. 10% of the total State electricity supply
in Victoria, and is one of the highest export earners for Victoria.

Some vital statistics about average datasets for Australian Aluminium production40
include:

Energy costs are about 30% of operating costs

Electricity levels of approx 15 KWh required per Kg of metal produced.

Requires approx 3 Megalitres of water per tonne of metal produced.

Green House Gas (GHG) emissions of approx 2.5 tonnes CO2-e per tonne of
metal produced.

Greenhouse gas emissions are becoming an increasing area of concern with activist
groups adopting a more militant stance toward industry.

Many industry leaders are seeking ways of both effectively reducing their greenhouse
gas emissions and ‘value-adding’ other goods and services by utilizing by-product
development. This will then achieve acceptable results to both communities and the
corporate ‘bottom-line’.

Key Elements
1. Easy access to unpolluted seawater.

2. Access via local deep water port.

3. Plentiful Groundwater reserves.

4. Main Supply Routes [MSR] inland.

5. Plans for construction of new Power Stations at Orford and Mortlake.

6. Combined heat energy from the smelter & geothermal Resources.

40
Australian Aluminium Council website: http://www.aluminium.org.au/Page.php?d=1050

22
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

7. Significant Emission Credits.

23
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Bushfire Risk
There is little point in providing groundcover and shelterbelts if we are unable to
protect our crops, livestock, forests and communities.

Events such as the Ash Wednesday, Canberra, Grampians and Gippsland bushfires
clearly highlight the increasing risk of devastating fires in the Southern parts of
Australia.

“The  impact  of  periodic  extreme  fire  weather  is  amplified  by  the  “corner 
effect”  as  cold  fronts  round  the  eastern  boundary  of  Victoria  and  violent 
southerly  changes  stream  northwards,  sometimes  governed  by  stationary 
high pressure cells in the Tasman.”  

“The  combined effect  is  to  place Victoria  into  one of  the  acknowledged 

most fire dangerous parts of the globe.”  

“From  a  community  perspective,  this  physical  and  meteorological 

arrangement  has  historically  manifested  itself  in  severe  fire  seasons 
through substantial loss of life, sometimes involving many fatalities, heavy 
loss of assets and extensive areas subjected to intense fire.” 41

The Victorian Country Fire Authority employs strategies and tactics that may utilise:

• Modern Fire Appliances, including 4 Wheel Drive units.

• Bulldozers.

• Spotter aircraft.

• Sophisticated satellite imaging technologies.

• Fixed and rotary wing aerial water-bombers – crop-dusters and Elvis.

• Small unit Strike Teams

As detailed in the Commonwealth Parliamentary Select Committee Report42 ,

there have been serious problems in our ability to combat bushfires – perhaps it is
time to increase equipment and resources to safely meet the increased fire threat –
introduce Armoured Strike Teams.

41
‘CFA Debriefs from Bushfires in Victoria from Dec 2005 to early 2006’, website:
http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/debrief_outcomes_sig_fires_dec05_jan06.pdf
42
‘A Nation Charred – Report on the Inquiry into Bushfires’, website:
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/bushfires/inquiry/report/fullreport.pdf

24
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Background – Armoured Warfare

The first successful use of armour by Australian Commanders occurred in World War
I in the campaigns on the Western Front.

Development of Armoured Warfare Strategies and tactics was a result of the stalemate
and significant loss of life created by the defensive trench systems that were used
across the entire Western Front.

An Australian Commander who saw the need for a new style of warfare that could be
successful against defensive lines of trenches was General Sir John Monash.

His key to success may be summarized as follows:

“…..the true role of infantry was not to expend itself upon heroic physical 
effort, not to wither away under merciless machine‐gun fire, not to impale 
itself on hostile bayonets, 

…..but on the contrary,….. 

…to  advance  under  the  maximum  possible  protection  of  the  maximum 
possible array of mechanical resources, in the form of guns, machine‐guns, 
tanks,  mortars  and  aeroplanes;  to  advance  with  as  little  impediment  as 
possible; to be relieved as far as possible of the obligation to fight their way 
forward.”  43

Whilst many believe that the tactics that Monash developed and prosecuted would
only apply in war-fighting, it is perhaps time to apply some of his wisdom toward
more successful methods in fighting bushfires and wildfires.

In fire-fighting tactics, we are already using a large number of ‘mechanical devices’,

such as ‘fire trucks/tankers’ and ‘aeroplanes’ like firebombers and helicopters, [Elvis],
to fight bushfires – but, is it now time to introduce tanks?

43
The Australian War Memorial – Biography of General Sir John Monash, website :
http://www.awm.gov.au/1918/people/genmonash.htm

25
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Problems in Fighting Bushfires

Apart from the report, ‘A Nation Charred – Report on the Inquiry into
Bushfires’, there have been coronial inquests [Canberra Firestorm], and reports by
CFA members, farmers and graziers on the difficulties encountered in battling
bushfires.

Some of problems identified include:

• Poor fire trail management44

“The  Committee  witnessed  the  poor  state  of  fire  trails  in  the  Kosciuszko 
National Park where it inspected a section of the Grey Mare fire trail on 21 
May 2003 in the company of Rural Fire Service (RFS) Group Captains, the 
Fire Control Officer and his Deputy from the region.”  

“During  this  inspection  the  Committee  experienced  the  great  difficulty  of 
travelling  over  deep  channels,  or  ‘tank  traps’  as  they  are  known  locally, 
that  were  deliberately  built  into  the  trails  after  the  fires  to  discourage 
access.” 

• Safety concerns in accessing the Fireground.45

“A representative of the Central East Regional Conference of the Rural Fire 
Service  Association  (RFSA)  and  Captain  of  the  Round  Corner  Bushfire 
Brigade in Baulkham Hills, Mr Ross Jones, stated that:  “I have personally 
refused to go down trails because I believed them to be unsafe … especially 
with regard to the fire behaviour that could be expected to impact on us.” 

44
‘A Nation Charred – Report on the Inquiry into Bushfires’, website:
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/bushfires/inquiry/report/fullreport.pdf

45
‘Inquiry into the Operational Response to the January 2003 Bushfires in the ACT’, August 2003,
Ross Jones, Transcript of Evidence, 9 July 2003 (Richmond), p. 32.

26
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

• Safety concerns in times requiring hasty withdrawal.46

“The  Director  of  the  Victorian  Association  of  Forest  Industries  [VAFI] 
explained  the  significance  of  maintaining  fire  trails  to  adequate 
specifications;   The difference between one bulldozer width and three…[is] 
that you…. 

1.  Cannot turn a fire truck around as easily, 

2.  Are  still  going  to  have  the  overstory  touching  and  the  fire  can 
move across there and.. 

3.  Cannot start a backburning operation safely.” 

• Deliberate sabotaging of firetrails.47

“Another  experienced  volunteer  fire  fighter  from  the  area  stated:   

“National Parks hired a friend of mine, who is a bulldozer driver, to make a 
fire  trail  on  the  eastern  side  of  Mountain  Lagoon  impossible  to  use  …  
When the fire was in operation, because the Mountain Lagoon Fire Brigade 
had the authority they hired my mate with the bulldozer to clean [the trail] 
up.   
Before he had even moved away again, National Parks hired the same man 
to go back and rip it all up again.” 

• Fire fighting vehicles – Modified off-the-shelf fire-fighting tankers.

o There are several problems in using standardized, commercial, truck

cabs and chassis units as a basis for frontline Bushfire Vehicles. These
shortcomings have been detailed in a paper by Bruce Paix 48 , entitled
“Improving Burnover Protection for Australian Bushfire
Appliances,” in 1999. In this paper, weaknesses were identified in the
following vehicle elements:

o Vehicle Cabins: Windows and Door Trims – commercial truck

cabs have flammable vinyl/synthetic interiors.

46
‘Inquiry into the Operational Response to the January 2003 Bushfires in the ACT’, August 2003, Patrick Wilson,
Transcript of Evidence, 30 July 2003, p. 6.

47
‘Inquiry into the Operational Response to the January 2003 Bushfires in the ACT’, August 2003,
48
‘Improving Burnover Protection for Australian Bushfire Appliances’, Bruce Paix; Presented at the Australian Bushfire
Conference, Albury NSW, 1999

27
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

These can ignite and/or smoulder, giving off toxic vapours and smoke,
forcing the fire-fighters to abandon their vehicle, which may well be
their only refuge.

o Fuel Tanks – Commercial trucks often have unprotected fuel tanks,

which may increase vulnerability.

o Airbrake lines – One notable feature of truck braking systems is that

any drop in air pressure in the lines due to damage will cause the
brakes to “lock-up”. An occurrence on the fireground, or burnover,
effectively immobizes the truck and the crew is at extreme risk.

o Flammability of other Vehicle Parts – includes tyres, fuel lines and

hoses. In some cases these have caught on fire and led to the
complete destruction of the truck.

o Mechanical Failures – engines have failed to start or run when they

are subjected to intense heat and smoky conditions. Burning embers
have got into the engine and burned out the turbocharger, again
immobilizing the vehicle

o Sudden Bushfire Changes – Bushfire characteristics such as

intensity, direction, sudden wind gusts or wind shifts have suddenly
changed, resulting in entrapment of fire-fighters and their vehicles.

An ‘Off the Shelf’ 4WD Firefighting Vehicle – the Hino Tanker.  A standard commercial cab‐chassis 
truck with vehicle protection sprays, drop‐down reflector curtains (above front windscreen).  The 
chassis is not purpose‐built for fire‐fighting, windscreens are not armoured, and the door seals are 
unmodified.               Photo by Martien Dral    Courtesy of the website:   

28
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Fire‐Engine‐Photos.com:  http://www.fire‐engine‐photos.com/picture/number2142.asp 

29
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Armoured Strike Teams

Texoga Tech is the US Company that has built the special-purpose Armoured Fire
Fighting Vehicle [AFFV] based on the chassis of the Leopard 1 AS4 model.

Details of both the company and its products may be found on the website of Texoga
Corp.49

Photo shows the Jumbo FFT 5000 Fire‐Fighting Tank in action, marketed/built by Texoga Tech. 

Details about this AFFV provided from the Texoga website.

“This vehicle – developed by Europeʹs largest defence contractor KRAUSS 
MAFFEI‐WEGMANN – is designed with extensive off‐road and land‐
clearing capabilities and consists of a 5,000 gallon [20,000 litres] foam 
delivery system mounted on the reliable Leopard I A4 tank chassis.”  

“The integrated nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) protection system 
of the Leopard 1 protects the crew against smoke and toxic gases and 
allows this vehicle to operate where no commercial unit can go.”  

49
Website of Texoga Tech Corp: http://www.texogatech.com/gls.cfm

30
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

“Conversely, its mountable high tech rubberized pads for the tracks enable 
it to be driven on public roads. Coupled with the above features and the 
capability to be transported on a commercial trailer, this vehicle can be 
deployed to respond to the most hazardous fire situations. The unit is best 
suited for forest fires, harbor and industrial fire‐fighting, tunnel fires and 
refinery and petrochemical remote sites (desert and jungle).” 50

Photograph from a series about the Jumbo in the US. 51

Detailed specifications about the AFFV may be located at this website reference52 , and
are detailed later in this paper.

Major features of the Leopard AFFV include:

50
Website of Texoga Tech: http://www.texogatech.com/gls.cfm

51
Website for photos of the Jumbo AFFV: http://www.jumbofiretank.com/www%5Fjumbo/photo_gallery.cfm
52
Website of Jumbo 5000 AFFV: http://www.jumbofiretank.com/www%5Fjumbo/specs.htm

31
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

1. Approx weight empty – 34 tonnes: Weight full – 54 tonnes.

2. Max speed – 64 km/h.

3. Water carrying capacity of 20,000 litres – 20 tonnes.

4. Specially fitted chemical tank for adding fire-retardant foam to the main
water cannon used in extinguishing fires.

5. Addition of dozer blade – this is critical in any operations across the

fireground as it enables the vehicle to conduct rapid & light bulldozer tasks,
enabling a speedy track making capacity for the deployment of
motorized/wheeled elements.

6. Complete NBC capability, with oxygen Breathing Apparatus (BA) for

crew members. This would make this AFFV the only Firefighting Vehicle
in Australia with such a high level of comprehensive Personal Protection
Equipment (PPE) for crew members.

7. AFFV capability to ascend/descend slopes of 60% (empty) and 40% (at

full water capacity)

8. AFFV capability to traverse slopes of 30%.

9. Rubber tracked pad system that does not destroy normal road bitumen.

10. This vehicle is also reportedly useful in urban firefighting situations where
close protection is required to prevent loss of fire-fighter lives from intense
Industrial and Chemical Fires.

11. Easily transported to the fireground with Semi-trailers/low-loaders, similar

to bulldozer transporters currently in widespread use.

32
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Other Armoured Variants

Airmatic53 is a German based company that has also designed and manufactured
armoured fire-fighting vehicles that may be used in firestorm conditions.

The low profile Airmatic armoured firefighting vehicle carries 8,000 litres of water and can be used to carry injured
personnel to safety.

This manufacturer also builds armoured vehicles based on the M113 APC chassis.

53
Airmatic Germany website: http://www.airmatic-systeme.de/index.php?lang=EN&t=1&sk=9

33
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Australian Built Fire King

Perhaps the most exciting element within the proposed new Armoured Strike Team is
the Fire King, as it has already been proven as World Class. This vehicle is probably
the best 4WD/AWD fire-fighting vehicle in the world, and is currently in service with
the South Australian (SA) Forestry Department as their most effective fire-fighting
asset.

The authors have tested this vehicle in the Mount Gambier Forestry area. The Fire
King easily traversed steep gradients over very soft sands encountered along firebreaks
and easily traversed overland areas that would have bogged/stopped any normal 4WD
vehicle.

The Fire King, in self protection mode, during terrain evaluation tests at Mt Gambier, SA.
Crew access is via a central door at the rear of the cabin, eliminating the risk of fire burning
through door seals as can happen with traditional vehicle configurations.
Emergency exits are through side cab windows, clearly seen in this photo.

Major features of the Fire King include:

1. Already proven to be a world class fire-fighting vehicle.

2. Locally designed and built in Australia by Thales Group in Bendigo VIC.54

54
Thales Group Fire King website: http://www.adi-limited.com.au/site.asp?page=79

34
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

3. This vehicle is the result of additional development from the outstanding

military variant – the Bushmaster, used by the ADF.55 56

4. Extensive testing by the CSIRO under controlled, monitored and

consistent heat loads for 20+ minutes – proven vehicle survivability by
driving off the burnover test pad.

5. Run-flat tyre inflation system. Should the tyres be staked/punctured, the

on-board compressor maintains adequate tyre inflation enabling vehicle to
withdraw safely.

6. Maximum protection of crew from fire – state-of-the-art armour plate &

glass/windscreen that can withstand 1,000 deg C. temperatures. During
CSIRO burnover testing, the cabin temperature rose by no more than 15
deg C above ambient air temperature.

7. Approx weight empty – 10.2 tonnes: Weight full – 14.2 tonnes.

8. Max speed – 100 km/h. (restricted by Forestry SA). Constant road speed
easily maintained due to superior power of the engine plant, an intercooled
turbo-charged Caterpillar diesel of 300 hp.

9. Water carrying capacity of 3,000 litres (firefighting) + 700 litres (reserved

for vehicle protection).

10. Low centre of gravity – the design of the vehicle allows the water tank to
be fitted deep within the monocoque chassis, lowering the centre of gravity
in comparison to current pumper/tanker configurations – lessening the
chance of rollover.

11. The independent suspension design allows the Fire King to travel across
the roughest terrain whilst retaining excellent stability and crew comfort
offroad. The 6 speed automatic transmission, with power steering, enables
any CFA member to safely handle this vehicle in any terrain.

12. Options for fit-out include purchase of the cab-chassis from Thales. If the
rear of the Fire King layout, as currently utilized by Forestry SA for
plantation firefighting, is not suitable for CFA requirements, then the
current unit used on current CFA vehicles could be fitted to the Fire King,
subject to engineering specifications.

13. Full specification details are provided via Thales website. 57

55
Thales Group website: http://www.thalesgroup.com.au/site.asp?page=154

56
ADF website: http://www.defence.gov.au/TeamAustralia/vehicles_troop_transport_(Bushmaster).htm
57
Fire King Specifications page: http://www.adi-limited.com.au/content/docs/brochures/Land/8p_fireking.pdf

35
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

A ‘scorched’ Prototype Fire King, after successfully withstanding the CSIRO’s

“Burnover Standard.”
The vehicle was able to be driven off the test-bed area after the test.

Co-author Daryl Rigby discussing the features of the definitive model Fire King with Dave
Stevens, State Fire Manager, Forestry SA & Kevin Brown, Fleet Manager, Forestry SA, in
the testing area near Mt. Gambier SA.

36
 Another Climate Change Threat Assessment

Conclusion

The need for action

Climate Change will create a labyrinth of issues in the coming years. The whole
problem of GHG emissions will not be solved by focussing on any single element. It
requires a focus on all the elements, how they interrelate with each other, and how we
have had substantial influence upon the situation in which we now find ourselves.
These basic elements include:

• Earth

• Fire

• Wind

• Water

• Air

Many commentators state that Australia is really a ‘very small fish in a very big
pond’, and therefore cannot have a leadership role in driving positive outcomes in
combating Climate Change.

The Murray-Darling Basin is not just a story about purchasing back water licences, any
more than it is about asking farmers and communities to accept that their river
systems are beyond salvage. It will require effort on a national scale, not seen since the
Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme.

There are currently 32 Australian companies involved in developing geothermal

resources, and many others working in clean coal, solar & wind renewable energy
projects.

Additionally, there are the social issues of responsible environmental and water
management that will be thoroughly scrutinized by the public and the press.

The drought story continues to unfold.

Many of our forests, farms, rivers, communities and cities will soon die of thirst or
become devastated by bushfires in the coming summer seasons – unless we act.

Water is the key element and we need to make a start now.

37