Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Healthcare Valuation:
How to Prepare and Effectively Defend Your Position
By Luis Pareras Published by Greenbranch Publishing, LLC Copyright 2012 by Greenbranch Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved.
Sponsored by:
Copyright 2012 by Greenbranch Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved. Published by Greenbranch Publishing, LLC PO Box 208 Phoenix, MD 21131 Phone: (800) 933-3711 Fax: (410) 329-1510 Email: info@greenbranch.com www.greenbranch.com All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form, by any means, without prior written permission of Greenbranch Publishing, LLC. Routine photocopying or electronic distribution to others is a copyright violation.
Healthcare Valuation:
How to Prepare and Effectively Defend Your Position
How much is my company worth? We are getting to one of the most complex questions that a healthcare entrepreneur is going to have to face at the time of negotiating for capital. The ownership percentage of our company that we should cede to the investor depends on the capital needs of our idea. Any healthcare professional that gets to this stage and looks for financing in exchange for shares of the company, should know the different valuation tools that the investors will use to estimate the value of the start-up. This is important because: It helps the entrepreneur to be prepared to provide the investor with the relevant and appropriate information for the valuation process. It helps the entrepreneur to be able to defend the valuation in the face of those done by the venture capitalist, and therefore helps in trying to get the best agreement possible. What is certain is that even though the process may look like objective (science), the valuation of start-ups, companies that do not have any profits yet, is more an art and it is conditioned by elements of great subjectivity. The valuation of a start-up is highly negotiable. In the absence of objective results (the profits that the entrepreneur defends in the business plan are merely a hypothesis), the valuation is subject to the negotiating skills of the entrepreneur. A trendy start-up, with patents or competitive advantages and with elevated revenue predictions, will get a higher valuation than another without these characteristics. In this report, we will refer to the science and to the art, offering descriptions of the different methods of valuation based on objective data and also on the subjective elements on which venture capital normally relies. But before we do, we need to understand the process that takes place in the mind of the investors, introducing important concepts such as pre-money valuation and post-money valuation. In the process we initiate, investors will not only try to evaluate our idea (pre-money valuation) but also they will decide how much money to invest in it. After this injection of capital, logically, the company will have a higher valuation (post-money valuation). Lets continue looking at the process from this point of view.
Investment Process
Ideally, financing on the part of business angels or venture capitalists could be sufficient so that a start-up might be able to take off, generate profit and positive cash flow, and grow from now on with its own generated cash flow. Nevertheless, this usually
never happens, because profits never come sooner than expected (it is usually quite the opposite) and the type of ideas that gain access to venture capital have an ambitious run, and when the moment arrives, if the opportunity is there, they will need more investments to finance growth more quickly. For this reason, start-ups normally are financed with different rounds of financing (round A, B, and so on). As the company grows and demonstrates its profitability, it is a little easier to calculate an objective valuation, but in this initial stage, it can appear that the process is nothing more than a game of roulette. Nevertheless, to visualize the process carried out by investors in order for them to decide their participation in the start-up we need to better understand that the process is nothing like roulette and that a series of steps will lead to a valuation and a specific decision. The investors have an objective. Lets say they want the investment to multiply their capital by 10 in the term of four to seven years. Venture capitalists will ask themselves: does this company have the potential to multiply our investment 10 times? Or similarly, and here we have the crux of the question: what value do I have to give this company today, so that with this investment it can multiply my capital by 10? Lets remember that investors need a minimum return on their investment and this minimum return, together with the projected value of the company five years later (at the moment of disinvestment), determines what percentage of ownership of the new startup they should posses. Therefore, the investors are interested in the future value of our start-up at the moment of their exit, and not so much in its current value. And that future value is conditioned, as clear as it can be, by the strength of the team that is going to execute that idea. This path toward valuation is a counterintuitive path, it is an inverse path to what the entrepreneurs are imagining, but is extremely effective to help the venture capitalists to get a first provisional valuation for the company and to decide if the investment is suitable for them. The math of the capital risk operation is easy to understand, at least in the most general aspects: In the first place, capital is known as something that is going to be invested, the money that the entrepreneur is looking for. Lets suppose that for example, we need and we are looking for $1,000,000. Today the company is valued, before the investment is produced, by means of a method that we will see at the end of this report. Lets suppose that, for example, the pre-money valuation is $1,500,000. Adding up these two amounts, the invested capital and pre-money valuation, we will get the post-money valuation, the value of the company after the capital is invested. In this case, the post-money valuation will be $2,500,000. Pre-money valuation (V_pre) = $1,500,000 Invested capital (C) = $1,000,000 Post-m money valuation (V_post) = V_pre + C = $2,500,000 From this data, we can calculate the percentage of the company that is going to the hands of the investor, in this case 40 percent, that is no more than the relationship between the invested money and the final evaluation of the company:
Healthcare Valuation: How to Prepare and Effectively Defend Your Position
Ownership (%) = C/V_post = 1,000,000/2,500,000 = 0.4 (meaning 40%) At this time, healthcare entrepreneurs as founders of the company would retain 60 percent of their ownership after receiving an investment of $1,000,000. For many of the healthcare entrepreneurs that I have accompanied in the process, this is the most surprising phase. They ask themselves. If my company is still an idea, how is it possible that is worth $2,500,000? The answer is not easy, but without getting into too much detail, we should not forget that these are virtual valuations, obtained for the basic need of quantifying and regulating the relationship with the investor. These evaluations are not real; there is nothing to sell, except the most important part of all, the execution of the idea, leading our product to the market. Lets see for a moment what happens if the valuation that gets our idea is $500,000 instead of $1,500,000: Pre-money valuation (V_pre) = $500,000 Invested capital C = $1,000,000 Post-m money valuation (V_post) = $1,500,000 Ownership (%) = C/V_post = 1,000,000/1,500,000 = 0.66 (meaning 66%) In this scenario, entrepreneurs would only retain 33 percent of the company. It is clear therefore that with the same monetary need, a good part of the final result depends on the pre-money valuation that is estimated during the negotiations. That is the key. Lets look at it in more detail.
nancing in order to continue growing in the future. Therefore: The amount of money that we will need is very difficult to predict at first. It depends on future needs that we still do not know about and our rate of growth. We also do not know now the value that the future investor will give to our company.
V_pre = $5,000,000 C = $2,000,000 V_post = $7,000,000 Ownership (%) C/V_ post = 2,000,000/7,000,000 = .285 (meaning 28.5%) We are establishing again the extreme importance of getting a good valuation. We will take advantage of this example to introduce a new concept. This new scenario with for example 28.5 percent of the shares of our company implies what is known as a dilution of our ownership percentage for the company (and of the initial investors as well). If before we had 60 percent, now we will have a smaller percentage of ownership, because a new partner has invested and has diluted our ownership in the company. But losing ownership percentage of a company that grows and generates value on occasion may be a very positive thing. We have already introduced the concepts of pre-money valuation, post-money valuation, ownership percentage, and dilution. In order to have a complete vision of the process, there are three missing elements we should define now, adding a little more of complexity to the subject: The source of the money (equity or debt). The presence of stock options to be executed in the future. Analysis limitations.
Equity or Debt?
Until now we have considered that the capital that the company receives is in equity, that is, translated in shares given to the investors giving them an ownership percentage. In these situations, the math is easy, as we have seen. Nevertheless, in the real world, the investors can at times decide to invest a part of that money in a debt form, some sort of a loan (with or without collateral), that the entrepreneur should end up returning to them. The motives behind this decision will be analyzed later on, but so as not to complicate the topic unnecessarily, we will show you know some of the principle reasons: Investors are assured in this way that the founders and the team interests are aligned with theirs. Entrepreneurs know that they need to grow and create value in order to be able to profit in a substantial way from their project, because if the company is going poorly and there is a liquidation of the start-up (the sale of all that is possessed), investors will recover a part of the debt from it. The debt has preference over equity at the time of liquidation. And, if the start-up succeeds, investors are assured as well that the returns will not come only at the time of selling their shares; they will also get some returns during the companys activity. This debt is usually in a form of convertible debt, meaning it can be converted into equity at some point in the future if some milestones are met. The relationship between the amount of capital contributed in debt and the amount provided in shares is subject to negotiation at all times and, as we have recommended on many occasions in this report, entrepreneurs will need to follow the advice of a specialist that can help them in the process. Logically, the percentage of ownership may vary depending on this ratio of debt/shares.
Healthcare Valuation: How to Prepare and Effectively Defend Your Position
Stock Options
People do respond to incentives. In the health sector, as in the rest of the entrepreneurial world, it is very common that the founders of a start-up decide to offer stock options to their direct collaborators, those they depend on a fair amount for the success of the idea, in order to give them incentives to join the project. The stock options are basically a promise offering them the option to buy companys stocks in the future at a current prefixed price. In this way, if the company grows adequately and the value of those shares grows accordingly, when it comes the time to exercise that right to buy, it can mean an important profit to the owner of those stock options. We are in some way making the most important workers co-owners of the company (with a small percentage). Investors assume that if things go well, all stock options will be executed. Therefore, the normal practice in the sector is that the venture capitalists or business angels calculate their percentage in the company taking into account the percentage reserved for stock options. Before receiving the investment, entrepreneurs and venture capitalists agree on a reduced percentage in a stock options plan (commonly from five to 10 percent), already reserved at the beginning for: Future awards to collaborators that have contributed the most to its success. Attracting key people for the projects future.
Analysis Limitations
As we move forward with the particulars of the process, we have seen that the whole thing is not as easy as we presented at the beginning of the report. It is important for entrepreneurs to seek advice, but it is equally important that the entrepreneurs understand the terminology and the basic concepts in order to be able to contribute important things to the negotiation. It is their start-up, and they should defend it themselves, getting advice from people that have spent time in the same process and that are able to help them. Similarly, we should emphasize again here that the obtained valuations are very volatile and can change in a brusque way for many reasons. We need to understand the method used by venture capitalists, because if we do not understand their instruments, we can commit grave errors that will make an earned return difficult. Lastly, my advice is always that the entrepreneurs should not obsess too much over valuation; it is the agreement as a whole that matters and getting our idea out and profiting from our effort in a fair way is the only goal. Lets remember those shares are not liquid, they are not being transformed into money if there is no real project growth. Instead, entrepreneurs should concentrate on the difficult road to getting profits.
most straightforward. It serves as an initial guide for the investor, giving a base value of $500,000 to the idea if there is an identified profitable potential, and adding later on: Another $500,000 if the team appears competent and capable of making this company a success. Another $500,000 if the company has completed some agreement or strategic alliance that puts it in an appropriate position for rapid growth. And finally, another $500,000 if the company has completed its prototype and has demonstrated its efficiency before potential clients. The beauty of this method is its great simplicity and it can be used as a guide for those companies that still have not come out in the market and therefore do not have anything to show their viability. Its disadvantage is obviously that it is a very subjective method, not very scientific.
FIGURE 1.
10
capital and resources to move the idea forward. In any case, it is useful to know that specific companies can set their minimum value by calculating the value of contributed capital to the present date according to what is reflected in the balance sheet.
11
and it should be fixed by investors depending on their expectations (their previous experience from what they normally earn with this dollar). The valuation using this system is more objective, but has some problems as well: It depends on revenue predictions and does not analyze real objective revenues, which does not guarantee that this value is going to be reached. It only determines a specific value that will be real only if the entrepreneur accomplishes the financial projections as promised. It depends on deciding the cost of the money (discount rate), which is different for each investor depending on what that investor can earn with the money invested in other less risky areas. Lets look at a simple example. Lets suppose that a start-up wants to manufacture a new medical device and needs $100,000 today in order to initiate the project. The founders expectations are to get earnings of $50,000 during the first four years and in year five venture capitalists believe that the company can have a value of $300,000. Finally, lets suppose that the discount rate, meaning the cost of the money that the investor plans for this type of operation, is 15 percent annually. The math for tackling this evaluation is: The value of our company today (known as current net value) will be: Current value (in $ thousands) = -100 + 50/(1+.15) + 50/(1+.15)2 = 50/(1+.15)3 +50/(1+.15)4 + 300/(1+.15)5
N
VAFCF = I0 +
t=1
FFt (1 + i)t
Where: VAFCF = the current discounted value of the future cash flows. I0 = the initial investment in order to put the project in motion. FF = the nominal value of the flows in a future period. i = the discount rate, that is the opportunity cost of the invested funds, considering the risk factor. N = the amount of periods that are discounted. VA = 191.90 This means that the investor considers that the start-up is worth $191,900 if the entrepreneurs really accomplish the financial projections that they imagined for the start-up. In some cases, in place of valuating the start-up, investors may calculate the internal rate of return (IRR). The IRR is a capital budgeting metric used by venture capitalists to decide whether they should make investments. It is an indicator of the efficiency or quality of an investment, as opposed to net present value (NPV), which indicates value or magnitude. The IRR is the annualized effective compounded return rate that can be
Healthcare Valuation: How to Prepare and Effectively Defend Your Position
12
earned on the invested capital, that is, the yield on the investment. Put another way, the internal rate of return for an investment is the discount rate that makes the net present value of the investments income stream total to zero. Continuing with the earlier example, the formula would be: 100 = 50/(1+r) + 50/(1+r)2 = 50/(1+r)3 + 50/(1+r)4 +300/(1+r)5 Where: r = the unknown figure we are aiming to calculate we would have a value of 59.56%.