Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Foodgrain output seen rising 2%; storage woes likely for wheat
For the 2012- 13 crop marketing year ending June, Indias wheat production is estimated at 93.62 mt, close to last years record output of 94.88 mt. This could aggravate the already grim foodgrain storage scenario in the country. According to latest data, foodgrain stocks in state- run warehouses are estimated at 60 mt, almost thrice the required quantity. With the government planning to purchase an additional 40 mt of wheat from farmers this year, officials said the inventories could swell to about 90 mt by the first week of June. Ramesh Chand, director, National Centre For Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, said, Estimates of another year of a near- record wheat harvest in 2012- 13 would surely aggravate the storage problem, as already, foodgrain stocks are at record levels and the storage capacity is limited. The only ray of hope is to aggressively promote wheat exports at whatever price possible, without thinking of a loss to the Food Corporation of India or anyone else. Meanwhile, the governments third advanced estimate for the 2012- 13 crop marketing year released today showed mustard seed production was estimated at 7.4 mt, 0.8 mt more than last year. In 201213, overall foodgrain production is expected at 255.36 mt, 3.96 mt less than last year, owing to the poor output of rice, coarse cereals and moong. The production of rice is estimated at 104.22 mt, 1.09 mt less than last year, while production of coarse cereals is estimated at 39.52 mt, against 42.04 mt last year. Moong production is estimated at 1.18 mt, 0.45 mt less than last year. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on May 03, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19576 5944 53.81 95.61 1464

-0.81 -0.92 -0.05 1.72 -0.23

1.50 1.24 -1.05 2.81 0.17

4.12 4.78 -1.32 1.23 -5.70

14.14 14.56 0.89 -6.76 -10.40

.Source: Reuters

Madhya Pradesh wants Bill on biotech regulator withdrawn

Opposition is building up against the Biotech Regulatory Authority of India (BRAI) Bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha recently. The Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled Madhya Pradesh has joined the list of those who want the Centre to withdraw the Bill, which provides for setting up a regulator for the sector. The BRAI Bill does seek to violate the spirit of federal polity in India, even though agriculture is a State subject as per the Indian Constitution said the State Agriculture Minister, Ramakrishna Kusmariya, in a letter to the Science and Technology Minister S. Jaipal Reddy. He said the Government should withdraw the Bill and hold widespread consultations on the biosafety law instead. The BRAI Bill proposes single-window clearance for genetically-modified crops in the country. (Source: Business Line)

New Summer Guar Crop Started Arriving in Parts Of Saurashtra

Reportedly, around 400-500 bags of guar seed arriving daily in parts of Saurashtra markets from new summer crop. It is notable that still around 40-45% crop has been arrived in the market and with new guar started arriving in the market, prices might go down further. In addition to it, weak demand from domestic market as well as gas drilling sector from US likely to depress the prices of guar in the coming weeks. (Source:
Agriwatch)

Sugar output likely to fall 3% this year

India is expected to have produced around 24.52 mt of sugar during the first six months of the 2012- 13 sugar marketing season that started in October. This is down almost three per cent from the same period last year because of low recovery. With sugar production coming to an end in most parts of the country, the final output for 2012- 13 is expected to be around 24.52 mt. According to industry body ISMA, the final output has been marginally less because of 0.17 point drop in recovery. Recovery is the quantum of sugar produced from every quintal of cane crushed. In 2012- 13, sugar recovered from crushing was 10.09 per cent. This year again Maharashtra was the leading producing state, churning out around 7.97 mt of sugar by crushing 6.99 mt of sugarcane at 11.40 per cent reported recovery. In Uttar Pradesh, production till date has been around 7.43 mt at 9.19 per cent reported recovery, Isma said. Karnataka has already closed crushing operations with 3.36 mt of sugar production as against of 3.72 mt produced last year. (Source: Business Standard)

Brazil exported highest sugar volume ever in April 2013-14

Brazil has exported 1.722 million tons of sugar in April 2013-14 season which is up from 0.558 million tons exported last year same period. Higher sugar production than consumption and smooth movement of sugar at ports led the sugar exports increase from Brazilian ports. It is notable that Brazil has exported in total 27.20 million tons of sugar last year till March 2012-13 as reported. (Source: Agriwatch)

Showers keeping US corn farmers at home

Wet and chilly weather into the weekend will continue to slow plantings of the U.S. corn crop that already has fallen to the slowest seeding pace on record, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday. "Rains will occur into the weekend in the central Midwest and northeastern Delta, shifting into the southeast early next week," said Joel Widenor, meteorologist for Commodity Weather Group (CWG). Drier and warmer weather is expected early next week giving some farmers a narrow window of opportunity to plant corn but showers are expected again later next week, Widenor said. (Source: Reuters)

Storm brews in Bay of Bengal, could help onset of monsoon

It is now more or less clear that the South-West Bay of Bengal, just off Sri Lanka, might whip up a storm next week. What remains to be known is whether this weather system could bring in the South-West monsoon along. Seasonal rains normally reach the first outpost of Andaman Islands between May 15 and 20. On Friday, the IMD said that a preparatory cyclonic circulation would form over South-West Bay of Bengal by Sunday. This is expected to strengthen over the next two to three days to become a low-pressure area, the IMD said, without mentioning its coordinates. But international weather models expected it to intensify and become a full-scale cyclone. Climate Prediction Centre of US National Weather Services said the cyclone might move East-North-East into Central Bay and head for landfall over Myanmar/Bangladesh. It also sees a splinter from this storm moving west over peninsular India and entering Arabian Sea, off Mangalore. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau said that the storm would most likely cross Chennai coast and move North-North-West into East-central India and weaken over east Maharasthra/Andhra Pradesh. If this were to happen, it would lead to onset of the monsoon over mainland India along the Kerala coast. (Source:
Business Line)

Palm slips to near 5-mth low, investors wary ahead of poll

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a near 5-month low on Friday, posting a weekly loss of 2.7%, with many investors exiting the market as the country heads into polls. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, holds general elections on Sunday in what could be the toughest test of the ruling coalition's 56-year grip on power. "There's a lot of uncertainty because there's no major news on the market yet. For now a lot of people are trying to leave the market, pending the election results next Monday," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur."People are worried the stock market is going to go down. A weaker ringgit will be good for palm oil, but a weaker stock index is bad. So we're not sure which way palm will move. (Source: Reuters)

Cotton output may fall as farmers shift to more profitable crops

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After recovering over the last two sessions, chana futures resumed its southward journey as higher arrivals of the new crop continue to mount pressure on the prices. Demand from stockists also remains dull. However, reports of lower yield in MP supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.21% and 0.78% lower on Friday. Higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen pressurizing prices in the physical markets. However, concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions has been seen supporting prices at lower levels. Chana prices may find support at lower levels as stockists will build inventories at lower levels to meet the demand for the entire season.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3433 3445 Prev day -1.21 -0.78

as on May 03, 2013 % change WoW MoM -1.26 -0.67 -2.08 0.97 YoY -16.60 -15.02

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX May'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:
Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for May 04, 2013 Resistance 3470-3500

3385-3410

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana may trade sideways with a negative bias today. Increasing arrivals of the new crop is expected pressurize prices at higher levels. However, value buying may emerge at lower levels. Any improvement in demand from stockists may restrict a major downside. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices traded on a flat note with a negative bias yesterday. Higher supplies from mills have been seen offsetting the summer demand. Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.04% and 0.17%lower on Friday. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3041

as on May 03, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.04 0.78 MoM -0.29 YoY 3.67

Rs/qtl

2930

-0.17

0.51

-0.54

1.77

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 496.8 389.56

as on May 03, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.88 -0.40 -0.74 0.98 MoM -1.60 0.17 YoY -11.25 -15.11

Domestic Production and Exports

According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between OctoberApril stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3% during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn.
India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as ICE Raw Sugar settled 0.88% and 0.4% lower on Friday. Sugar prices in the international markets are trading at their lowest levels in since July 2010 on account of a global surplus situation for the third consecutive year. According to Unica, South-Central Brazil cane crush projected at 589.60 million tons for 2013/2014. Main centersouth sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for May 04, 2013 Resistance 2945-2960

2900-2920

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Prices may consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Improvement in demand from the bulk manufacturers will support prices at lower levels. A decline in sugar production may also support prices at lower levels. However, supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean gained by 0.87% yesterday as poor supplies in
the domestic markets have supported prices at lower levels. IMDs prediction of a normal monsoon also pressurized prices earlier this week. Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soyabean May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 expiry contracts with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, April 30, 2013. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX May '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4006 3951 734.2 719.1 Prev day 0.88 0.87 -0.11 0.41

as on May 03, 2013

WoW -4.02 -4.14 -0.46 -0.27

MoM 4.11 4.46 3.95 2.04

YoY 9.33 7.23 -3.86 -6.34

International Markets
Soybean gained 0.97% on Friday on account of tight supplies of soy crop. Farmer selling has also slowed down. Expectations of lower ending stocks in USDAs Monthly crop report to be released next week also supported prices. Large South American crop coupled with forecasts for US weather to improve in the coming week have capped sharp gains. Sentiments remain weak on account of smooth supplies from Brazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Data released by National Oilseed Processors Association showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.

Source: Reuters

as on May 03, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1455 49.16 Prev day 0.97 1.53 WoW 1.69 -1.01 MoM 5.42 0.02
Source: Reuters

YoY -0.94 -8.62

Crude Palm Oil

as on May 03, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.18 0.00 -3.04 -2.19

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia May '13 Contract CPO-MCX- May '13 Futures

Last 2231 454.7

MoM -5.90 -1.52

YoY -34.09 -27.01

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled 0.41% higher tracking positive
soybean prices while MCX CPO settled unchanged. Palm oil prices on the KLCE have declined as many investors have exited the markets ahead of the general elections to be held on Sunday. Indian government increased the base import price on crude soybean oil by US $9 per tons to US $1103. Besides, base import price on crude palm oil set at US $ 824 and reduced base import price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and US $861 per tons. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 25 increased 5.2% to 1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 25.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3400 3415 Prev day 0.00 -0.15 WoW -2.86 -3.01

as on May 03, 2013 MoM -1.97 -1.24

Source: Reuters

YoY -15.22 -15.18

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures declined by 0.15% on

account of higher supplies of the new crop. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may gain today on account of poor supplies in the domestic markets. However, higher margins coupled with forecast of a normal monsoon may cap sharp upside in the prices. Weak meal export demand may also pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets may support prices. Soy oil and CPO may trade sideways with a negative bias. Weak international markets are expected to pressurize prices. However, comfortable stock levels may cap sharp upside.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for May 04, 2013 Support 712-715 3860-3910 3375-3390 449-452 Resistance 722-725 3990-4020 3435-3455 458-461

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded with a positive bias and settled 0.14% higher on Friday. Higher supplies of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand have pressurized prices. However, lower supplies as well as good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels. Interstate traders are actively buying the Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,800/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 35600 35690 % Change Prev day -0.26 0.14

as on May 03, 2013 WoW -0.74 1.09 MoM -2.32 0.07 YoY -6.69 -6.53

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for May 04, 2013 Support 35300-35500 Resistance 35800-36000

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 128 tonnes while off takes were reported at 130 tonnes on Friday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures may trade with a positive bias today. Good demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support prices at lower levels. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices from higher levels. No new contracts on the futures markets may keep traders away.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures gained 0.74% on Friday on account of short coverings. Declining arrivals from its peak arrivals also supported prices at lower levels. Prices have declined sharply over the past few weeks on account of higher supplies of the new crop. Good supplies from Rajasthan also pressurized prices. Domestic as well as overseas demand is expected to improve in the coming days. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices last month. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX May '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13418 12863 Prev day 0.20 0.74

as on May 03, 2013 % Change WoW 0.17 -0.69 MoM -0.08 -1.83 YoY 3.03 -2.11

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 15,000 lakh bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.90 0.06

as on May 03, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures may trade with a negative bias today. Higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, improvement in overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX May '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6275 6294

WoW -4.90 -1.90

MoM -2.35 -3.08

YoY 92.92 71.97

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a flat note and settled marginally higher by 0.06% on Friday on account of short coverings. Weak demand coupled with higher supplies has pressurized prices. Lower output expectations supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The spot settled 0.9% lower.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad stood at 5,000 bags and 8,000 bags respectively on Friday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels. Crop damage and output concerns may also support prices at lower levels.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for May 04, 2013

Support 12700-12780 6150-6200 Resistance 12940-13020 6410-6510

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| May 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 1.21% and 1.68% higher on Friday on account of short coverings coupled with lower supplies in the domestic markets. Prices have declined sharply due to weak demand However, the overall sentiments remain weak as mills are avoiding buying as they expect prices to decline after the CCI commenced offloading stocks. Cotton Corp of India has also sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 1045 18200

as on May 03, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.21 1.46 1.68 2.36 MoM YoY 11.24 -6.49 2.36 1.79

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton May Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 84.72 93.6

as on May 03, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.06 3.00 1.85 3.08 MoM -5.04 -1.99 YoY -2.89 -4.44

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton gained 1.06% on Friday on account of delay in the plantings which has caused worries over supplies in the coming season. Better than expected economic data yesterday in the US also supported prices. Prices declined sharply over the past one month on account of weak economic data from US and China. Investors liquidated their long positions and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX May contract

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade sideways with a negative bias today as lack of buying by mills in the domestic markets coupled with offloading of stocks by the CCI may pressurize prices. However, lower supplies in the domestic markets may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX May Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for May 04, 2013 Support 1020-1030 17890-18040 Resistance 1055-1065 18310-18420

www.angelcommodities.com