Thinking Regionally To Compete Globally: Leveraging Migration & Human Capital in The US, Mexico, and Central America

FlNAL REP0R1 0F 1RE RE0l0NAL Ml0RA1l0N 8100Y 0R00P
CO-CHA|RS: LRNLSTO ZLD|LLO, LDUARDO STL|N, CARLOS M. GUT|LRRLZ

Leveragi ng Mi grati on & ¬uman Capi tal
i n the u.3., Mexi oo, and Central Ameri oa
1¬l NKl N0 RL0l 0NALL¥ 10
U0MPL1L UL0ßALLY
By 0emetrlos 0. Papademetrlou, 0orls Melssner, and Eleanor 8ohnen
1 R £ M l G R A 1 l U N P U L l C ¥ l N 5 1 l 1 U 1 £ 1 R £ W l L 5 U N C £ N 1 £ R
THE REGÌONAL MÌGRATÌON STUDY GROUP
THlNKlNG REGlONALLY
TO COMPETE GLOBALLY
Leveraglng Mlgratlon & Human Capltal ln tbe
U.S., Me×lco, ano Central Amerlca
8y Demetrlos G. Papaoemetrlou, Dorls Melssner, ano Lleanor Sobnen
F | N A L RL P O RT O F T H L RL G | O N A L M| G R AT | O N S T U DY GR O U P
Co-Cbalrs: Lrnesto Zeolllo, Louaroo Steln, ano Carlos M. Gutlerrez
May 2013
© 2013 Mlgratlon Pollcy |nstltute.
All Rlgbts Reserveo.
Cover Pboto: Moolñeo verslon ot Nortb Amerlcan map
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Cover Deslgn: 8urke Speaker, MP|
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Suggesteo cltatlon: Papaoemetrlou, Demetrlos G., Dorls
Melssner, ano Lleanor Sobnen. 2013. 7h|nk|ng ßeg|ono||, to
Compete C|o5o||,: Leverog|ng M|grot|on & Humon Cop|to| |n the
U.S., Mex|co, ond Centro| Amer|co. Wasblngton, DC: Mlgratlon
Pollcy |nstltute.
TabIe of Contents
List of RegionaI Migration 5tudy Group Menbers .................................................................. l
Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................... ll
AcknowIedgnents ............................................................................................................................................ lll
Executive 5unnary ......................................................................................................................................... 1
l. lntroduction .................................................................................................................................................. 8
A. Unoerstanolng Reglonal Mlgratlon ............................................................................................................ 9
8. Mlgratlon Pollcy Has Not Kept Pace wltb Reglonal Lconomlc |ntegratlon ...................................10
ll. Changing Assunptions ....................................................................................................................... 11
A. Demograpblc Outlook ................................................................................................................................12
1. Populatlon Growtb ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
2. Youtb ano Aglng .............................................................................................................................................................. 14
3. Loucatlonal Attalnment ................................................................................................................................................. 14
4. |ncome ano Poverty ....................................................................................................................................................... 15
8. Cbanglng Flows .............................................................................................................................................15
C. Lconomlc Growtb .......................................................................................................................................16
lll. lnstitutionaI Reforns and the RuIe of Law ....................................................................... 17
A. Creatlng Rule-ot-Law Frameworks tor Mlgratlon Management Tbrougbout tbe Reglon ............19
8. Reouclng Corruptlon by 8ullolng Capaclty ano Conñoence ln Law
Lntorcement |nstltutlons ............................................................................................................................19
C. Promotlng a Culture ot Lconomlc Growtb ano Proouctlvlty by Lncouraglng
Formal Lconomlc Actlvlty ..........................................................................................................................21
lV. lnnigration PoIicies: Making the U5 lnnigration 5ysten
More Responsive to Labor Market and Econonic Needs ..................................... 22
A. Tooay's Reallty ...............................................................................................................................................23
8. |ntroouclng Fle×lblllty |nto tbe Lconomlc |mmlgratlon Stream .......................................................24
Lstabllsblng an |noepenoent Analytlcal Agency to Aovlse Pollcymakers on Allocatlon ot
Lmployment-8aseo vlsas .............................................................................................................................24
C. Remaklng vlsa Pollcles to Respono to Labor Market Realltles ano L×perlences ..........................26
1. Creatlng a New vlsa Stream ano vlsa Portablllty Tbat Meet Tooay's Neeos
ano Antlclpate Tomorrow's Reallty.............................................................................................................................. 27
2. Lngaglng State ano Local Actors ln tbe Selectlon ot |mmlgrants .......................................................................... 30
D. Legallzatlon ...................................................................................................................................................31
1. |ncluslve Lllglblllty Date ............................................................................................................................................... 31
2. Reglstratlon as tbe Flrst Step ....................................................................................................................................... 32
V. New Approaches to Migration Reforn in Mexico and CentraI Anerica:
An EvoIving RoIe for Mexico .......................................................................................................... 33
Mooernlzlng Me×lco's Mlgratlon System .........................................................................................................34
1. Me×lco ano lts Soutbern 8oroer ................................................................................................................................. 34
2. Dlsentangllng Mlgratlon ano Securlty ......................................................................................................................... 35
3. |ntrareglonal Cooperatlon: Cballenges ano Successes ............................................................................................ 37
Vl. RegionaI Migration and Hunan CapitaI: A Longer-Tern RegionaI
Vision for Hunan-CapitaI DeveIopnent ............................................................................. 41
A. 8arrlers ano Opportunltles to 8ullolng ano Actlvatlng Human Capltal ...........................................44
8. Recognlzlng tbe |mportance ot Clrcularlty ...........................................................................................46
C. 8ullolng Quallñcatlons Tbat Are Recognlzeo ano Portable Across tbe Reglon ............................47
Vll. ConcIusions and Reconnendations ....................................................................................... 49
Works Cited ......................................................................................................................................................... 56
About the Authors .......................................................................................................................................... 62
About the Convening lnstitutions ...................................................................................................... 64
The RegionaI Migration 5tudy Group's PubIished Research ......................................... 65
l
M|GRAT|ON POL|CY |NST|TUTL
Tblnklng Reglonally to Compete Globally: Leveraglng Mlgratlon & Human Capltal ln tbe U.S., Me×lco, ano Central Amerlca
List of RegionaI Migration 5tudy Group Menbers
CO-CHAlR5
Ernesto ZediIIo
Dlrector, Yale Center tor tbe Stuoy ot Globallzatlon
Former Presloent ot Me×lco (1994-2000) ano tormer
Secretary ot Loucatlon (1992-94)
Eduardo 5tein
Coorolnator, Central Amerlcan Network ot Tblnk Tanks
(¨laRLD¨)
Former vlce Presloent ot Guatemala (2004-08) ano tormer
Forelgn Mlnlster (1996-2000)
CarIos M. Gutierrez
vlce Cbalrman, Albrlgbt Stonebrloge Group
Former US Commerce Secretary (2005-09)
CO-DlRECTOR5
Denetrios G. Papadenetriou
Presloent, Mlgratlon Pollcy |nstltute
Convener, Reglonal Mlgratlon Stuoy Group
Doris Meissner
Dlrector, US |mmlgratlon Pollcy Program, Mlgratlon Pollcy
|nstltute
Former Commlssloner, US |mmlgratlon ano Naturallzatlon
Servlce (1993-2000)
Andrew 5eIee
vlce Presloent tor Programs ano Senlor Aovlsor to tbe Me×lco
|nstltute, Wooorow Wllson |nternatlonal Center tor Scbolars
MEMBER5
Hugo Beteta
Dlrector, Subreglonal Heaoquarters ln Me×lco, Lconomlc
Commlsslon tor Latln Amerlca ano tbe Carlbbean (LCLAC)
Former Mlnlster ot Publlc Flnances, Republlc ot Guatemala (2006-07)
Lázaro Cárdenas BateI
Senlor Fellow, Wasblngton Otñce on Latln Amerlca
Former Governor, State ot Mlcboacan, Me×lco (2002-08)
john Coatsworth
Provost, Columbla Unlverslty
Luis de Ia CaIIe
Managlng Dlrector ano Founolng Partner, De la Calle, Maorazo,
Mancera, S.C. (CMM)
Former Unoersecretary, |nternatlonal Traoe Negotlatlons, Mlnlstry
ot tbe Lconomy, Me×lco (1999-2002)
Antonia Hernández
Presloent ano Cblet L×ecutlve Otñcer, Calltornla Communlty
Founoatlon
janes R. jones
Partner, Manatt, Pbelps & Pbllllps, LLP
Former US Ambassaoor to Me×lco (1993-97), tormer Member, US
House ot Representatlves (1973-86)
5antiago Levy AIgazi
vlce Presloent tor Sectors ano Knowleoge, |nter-Amerlcan
Development 8ank
Former Deputy Mlnlster, Mlnlstry ot Flnance ano Publlc Creolt ot
Me×lco (1994-2000)
Monica Lozano
Cblet L×ecutlve Otñcer, lmpreMeola
jorge Luis Madrazo CuéIIar
vlce Presloent ot Communlty Relatlons, Sea Mar Communlty
Healtb Centers
Former Attorney General ot Me×lco (1996-2000)
EIiseo Medina
Secretary-Treasurer, Servlce Lmployees |nternatlonal Unlon
Diana NataIicio
Presloent, Unlverslty ot Te×as at Ll Paso
john D. Negroponte
vlce Cbalrman, McLarty Assoclates
Former Dlrector ot Natlonal |ntelllgence, tormer Deputy
Secretary ot State, ano tormer US Ambassaoor to Honouras,
Me×lco, tbe Pblllpplnes, tbe Unlteo Natlons, ano |raq
RogeIio Ranírez de Ia O
Presloent, Lcanal
Andrés RozentaI
Presloent, Rozental & Asoclaoos
Former Deputy Forelgn Mlnlster ot Me×lco (1988-94), tormer
Ambassaoor to tbe Unlteo Klngoom ano Sweoen, ano tormer
Permanent Representatlve ot Me×lco to tbe Unlteo Natlons
Luis Rubio
Cbalrman, Center ot Researcb tor Development (C|DAC)
janes W. ZigIar
Senlor Fellow, Mlgratlon Pollcy |nstltute
Former Commlssloner ot tbe US |mmlgratlon ano Naturallzatlon
Servlce (2001-02)
PROjECT MANAGER5
EIeanor 5ohnen
Pollcy Analyst, Mlgratlon Pollcy |nstltute (November 2012 ÷
Present)
Aaron Terrazas
Pollcy Analyst, Mlgratlon Pollcy |nstltute (2010 ÷ November 2012)
ll
Foreword
Nigiation has piofounuly affecteu ÷ anu continues to shape ÷ the social anu economic tiajectoiies of
the 0niteu States, Nexico, anu Cential Ameiica, as well as the ways in which these countiies ielate anu
inteiact with each othei.
At this wiiting, 0S legislatois aie uebating how to iefoim an antiquateu anu inflexible immigiation
system that uoes not auuiess 1) the mismatch between laboi uemanu anu visa supply, 2) the fate of the
estimateu 11 million unauthoiizeu iesiuents, oi S) the extenueu sepaiation of 0S citizens anu iesiuents
anu theii families abioau. The immigiation system has also lost contiol of its integiity by failing to
maintain the iule of law in many migiation matteis.
The iesulting iefoims must tackle these ueficiencies heau on. They must intiouuce into the system the
flexibility necessaiy to aujust visa numbeis accoiuing to the ebbs anu flows of the economy; give it the
authoiity anu iesouices to ensuie that foieign woikeis anu theii family membeis aie tieateu piopeily;
give it the means to be faii to 0S woikeis; anu make immigiation enfoicement stiongei anu smaitei,
both at the boiueis anu insiue the countiy. 0nly then can the 0niteu States have an immigiation system
that embiaces anu ensuies legality, faiiness, oiueiliness, iesponsiveness to laboi maiket neeus, anu
pieuictability foi all who engage the system; anu eains the tiust of the public.
Funuamental anu thoughtful iefoim, howevei, is not just goou foi the 0niteu States. It is ciitical also foi
the consequences that it will have foi the iegion (anu the iest of the woilu). While 0S immigiation policy
is a soveieign concein, the countiy uoes not function in a voiu. Najoi uemogiaphic, economic, anu social
changes aie sweeping acioss Nexico, El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias that aie alteiing the uynamics
of the iegional migiation system anu challenging the status quo. These uevelopments iequiie a ie-
examination not just of bow mony people fiom the iegion aie choosing to migiate, but also wbo they aie,
wbere they aie going, wby they choose to migiate, anu (in a too-often oveilookeu coiollaiy) wbot then
happens to them anu the communities of which they aie pait: both the senuing one anu the ieceiving one.
These aie impoitant questions. But the biggei questions foi policymakeis in all of these countiies begin
with bow. Bow can these nations collaboiate to ensuie safe, legal, oiueily migiation flows touay. Anu
how, ultimately, can they each woik towaiu sustaineu, inclusive economic giowth ÷ funuamentally
suppoiteu by people with the skills anu qualifications uemanueu anu iecognizeu by the laboi maiket.
The goal of the Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, conveneu by the Nigiation Policy Institute anu the Latin
Ameiican Piogiam¡Nexico Institute of the Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais in 2u1u,
has been to analyze anu sheu light on the changes the migiation system is unueigoing, anu piopose a
piagmatic, coopeiative way foiwaiu.
0nuei the guiuance of a uistinguisheu anu wise gioup of membeis, anu the leaueiship of the thiee
extiaoiuinaiy statesmen who leu the effoit ÷ Einesto Zeuillo, Euuaiuo Stein, anu Cailos uutieiiez ÷ the
Stuuy uioup has given uefinition anu voice to this pioactive iegional vision of migiation management anu
human-capital uevelopment.
0n behalf of the membeis of the Stuuy uioup, my NPI anu Wilson Centei colleagues anu I aie pleaseu to
paiticipate in the ongoing conveisation on migiation by shaiing this vision, captuieu in this final iepoit
anu seiies of iecommenuations.
We hope oui iueas will contiibute to the laigei uebate now taking place in all of oui countiies on how to
tackle the impoitant woik at hanu.
Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou
Piesiuent, Nigiation Policy Institute
Convenei, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup
lll
AcknowIedgnents
This iepoit woulu not have been possible without the tiemenuous inuiviuual anu collective effoits of
many talenteu anu ueuicateu people. We must stait by acknowleuging oui ueepest giatituue to Einesto
Zeuillo, Euuaiuo Stein, anu Cailos uutieiiez foi seiving as Co-Chaiis. Theii uisceining vision, intellectual
leaueiship, anu wise counsel have been this pioject's louestais. We aie giateful to the Stuuy uioup
membeis foi theii guiuance anu complete engagement thioughout the pioject.
0ui paitneis in convening the Stuuy uioup weie the Latin Ameiican Piogiam¡Nexico Institute of the
Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais. We especially thank Cynthia Ainson foi hei invaluable
help in setting up the Stuuy uioup anu guiuance in the Cential Ameiica pait of the pioject; Baviu Ayon,
Eiic 0lson, anu Chiistophei Wilson foi shaiing theii expeitise; Niguel Salazai, Allison Coiuell, anu Biew
Sample foi theii excellent piogiammatic anu communications assistance; anu Wilson Centei Biiectoi,
Piesiuent, anu CE0 }ane Baiman foi hei enthusiastic suppoit.
We aie extiemely giateful to the Tinkei Founuation, the NacAithui Founuation, anu the 0pen Society
Founuations foi theii encouiagement anu financial suppoit foi this pioject. Even the best iueas cannot
get off the giounu, let alone gain altituue, without the financial suppoit of institutions that shaie the same
values anu goals as those who piopose anu caiiy out the woik.
The final iepoit has been eniicheu enoimously by excellent ieseaich anu analysis foi which we thank the
following NPI colleagues: }eanne Batalova, Claiie Beigeion, Ranuy Capps, Susanna uioves, Faye Bipsman,
anu Naueleine Sumption. 0ui special giatituue goes to Nichael Fix, who leu the Institute's analytical woik
in the foui sectoial stuuies that unueipin the Stuuy uioup's finuings anu commentaiy in that iegaiu;
Naigie NcBugh anu Naic Rosenblum, whose intellectual contiibutions helpeu launch the Institute's
ieseaich in suppoit of the Stuuy uioup; anu Aaion Teiiazas, who manageu the pioject until Novembei
2u12. Aaion's iemaikable analytical, intellectual, anu leaueiship skills have been essential, as has been
the assistance of Kate Biick foi pioject cooiuination anu Caiolina Fiitz foi hei woik uuiing the pioject's
eailiest stages. We aie fuithei inuebteu to Eleanoi Sohnen, who pickeu up the ieins fiom them anu has
both manageu the pioject anu co-authoieu this iepoit uuiing the most uemanuing peiiou of the Stuuy
uioup's woik. We aie also giateful to NPI inteins Naicelle Beaulieu, Alexanuei Black, Emma Biitz, A.E.
Challinoi, Baviu uutieiiez, Lang Boyt, anu Ciis Ramon. Finally, woius cannot expiess the uebt we owe
to Nichelle Nittelstaut foi hei skillful euiting of this anu othei RNSu iepoits anu uevelopment of the
communications anu uissemination stiategy, anu to Lisa Bixon, Rebecca Kilbeig, Banielle Tinkei, Apiil
Siiuno, anu Buike Speakei foi theii outstanuing communications woik.
Piesent anu foimei officials fiom the 0niteu States, Nexico, El Salvauoi, anu uuatemala have been
especially suppoitive of oui effoits anu we thank them foi theii suppoit.
Fiom the 0niteu States, we thank Robeita }acobson anu }ohn Feeley of the State Bepaitment; Waltei
Bastian anu staff of the Commeice Bepaitment; Sanuia Polaski of the Bepaitment of Laboi; Cecilia Nuñoz
of the White Bouse Bomestic Policy Council; 0S Ambassauoi to Nexico Eail Anthony Wayne; Benison
0ffutt of the 0S Embassy in uuatemala; anu Ambassauoi Naii Caimen Aponte, Sean Nuiphy, anu staff of
the 0S Embassy in El Salvauoi. We also thank Alan Beisin of the Bepaitment of Bomelanu Secuiity foi the
leaining expeiience we shaieu in touiing the Nexico-uuatemala boiuei.
Fiom Nexico, we thank Ambassauoi Euuaiuo Neuina Noia anu the staff of Nexico's Embassy to
the 0niteu States; Seigio Alcocei Naitinez ue Castio anu }ulián ventuia of the Secietaiiat of Foieign
Relations; Ambassauoi Euuaiuo Ibaiiola; uoveinoi Agustin Caistens of the Banco ue Néxico; officials
at the Secietaiiat of Public Euucation; foimei Ambassauoi to the 0niteu States Aituio Saiukhan, who
offeieu his unstinting suppoit foi the pioject fiom its inception; anu uustavo Nohai, René Zenteno, anu
Salvauoi Beltián uel Rio.
lv
Fiom uuatemala, we thank vice Ninistei of Foieign Relations Rita Claveiie ue Sciolli anu Ambassauoi
Fiancisco villagián anu staff of uuatemala's Embassy to the 0niteu States.
Fiom El Salvauoi, we thank Foieign Ninistei Bugo Naitinez, vice Ninistei }uan }osé uaicia, anu staff
of the Ninistiy of Foieign Affaiis; vice Ninistei Bouglas Noieno anu staff of the Ninistiy of }ustice anu
Public Secuiity; vice Ninisteis Eilinua Banual anu Bectoi Samoui of the Ninistiy of Euucation; anu
Ambassauoi Fiancisco Altschul anu staff of El Salvauoi's Embassy to the 0niteu States.
We also wish to expiess oui giatituue to Naiia Eugenia Biizuela ue Avila (BSBC), Ricaiuo Coiuova
(F0NBA0Nu0), Robeito Rubio (F0NBE), anu Niiiam Zablah ue Banues (Funuacion 0N0) foi shaiing
theii expeitise anu assistance on the giounu in El Salvauoi.
0ui special thanks go to Stuuy uioup membei Luis Rubio foi his intellectual guiuance fiom the pioject's
inception to the piepaiation of this iepoit anu to CIBAC, the oiganization he chaiis, foi cooiuinating the
Stuuy uioup's Nexico visit.
The level of uiscouise at Stuuy uioup meetings benefiteu tiemenuously fiom excellent biiefings anu
analysis by a numbei of inuiviuuals. We especially wish to thank Fiancisco Alba, Biiam Beltián-Sánchez,
Raymunuo Campos-vázquez, Niguel Angel Castillo, Baniel Chiquiai, Petei A. Cieticos, Richaiu Bownie,
Steven Buuley, Ralph Espach, Rafael Feinánuez ue Castio, Baniel Baeiing, }acqueline Bagan, uoiuon
Banson, Baiiy Bolzei, Naik Kleiman, Celinua Lake, }ulie Lopez, Pia 0iienius, Iiene Palma, Ruben Puentes,
Ciaig Regelbiugge, Naiianito Roque, Alejanuiina Salceuo, Boiacio Sobaizo, Allison Squiies, }. Euwaiu
Tayloi, }uan Cailos villa, anu Steven Zahnisei.
A full list of Stuuy uioup publications appeais at the enu of this iepoit, anu can be founu online at
www.migiationpolicy.oig¡iegionalstuuygioup.
We aie ueeply appieciative foi the iich insights anu assistance of all these peisons. As is customaiy,
howevei, all eiiois of commission anu omission aie ouis alone.
Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, Stuuy uioup Co-Biiectoi
Boiis Neissnei, Stuuy uioup Co-Biiectoi
Anuiew Selee, Stuuy uioup Co-Biiectoi
1
Executive 5unnary
Nigiation has helpeu shape anu uefine the 0S ielationship with Nexico foi moie than a centuiy, anu
that with much of Cential Ameiica foi the last Su oi so yeais. Sometimes, migiation even becomes the
lens thiough which all othei aspects of the ielationship aie vieweu. Bence, getting migiation anu the
issues that fuel it iight is vital to ielations within the iegion; it is also essential to the iegion's long-teim
economic uevelopment, piospeiity, social oiuei, anu secuiity ÷ anu, in many ways, its competitiveness in
a fast-changing, inteiuepenuent global economy.
As the Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup
1
(RNSu) issues its final iepoit, the timing foi policy change seems
paiticulaily piopitious. Aftei a uozen yeais of political stalemate, the 0S Congiess has ietuineu to the
issue of immigiation iefoim in a bipaitisan effoit that seems both genuine anu piomising.
Immigiation iefoim uone iight is impoitant not only foi the 0niteu States, but foi the well-being of the
nations anu peoples of the iegion. Yet, uespite iepeateu iounus of uebate iegaiuing neeueu changes in
0S immigiation policy ovei the last 12 yeais, theie have been no systematic conveisations about what a
iegional appioach to migiation between anu among the countiies of the iegion might look like ÷ with
one exception. In 2uu1, then-Piesiuents ueoige W. Bush anu vicente Fox anu theii auministiations
engageu the bilateial migiation ielationship ueeply until the Septembei 11 attacks on the 0niteu States
took the issue off the table.
The Nigiation Policy Institute (NPI), in coopeiation with the Latin Ameiican Piogiam¡Nexico Institute
of the Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais, has sought to spaik such a conveisation by
convening the Stuuy uioup. The RNSu membeis have sought to unueistanu well anu speak cleaily anu
iesponsibly about uay-to-uay migiation ielations in the iegion, anu the politics anu foices that complicate
them. In uoing so, they have focuseu some of theii commentaiy anu iecommenuations on the 0S
legislative pioposals pioffeieu so fai, which ieflect many of the iueas agieeu to by the Stuuy uioup in its
concluuing meeting in late 2u12 ÷ anu that weie thoughtfully placeu into the policy mix by Stuuy uioup
membeis anu conveneis alike. But theii ultimate focus is on iueas about ways in which to gain moie fiom
migiation by builuing a stiongei social anu economic founuation acioss the iegion thiough enhancing its
human-capital infiastiuctuie.
This final iepoit pioviues the key insights anu iecommenuations the RNSu membeis have uiawn
fiom the Stuuy uioup's convenings. It is uiviueu into five main sections. It examines the changing
uemogiaphic anu economic uynamics of the iegion anu theii implications foi migiation; sketches
the inteiplay of secuiity policy (incluuing boiuei secuiity), institutional iefoim, anu the iule of law;
outlines the essential elements to be incluueu in 0S immigiation iefoim; analyzes senuing countiies'
evolving ioles in the iegional migiation system; anu piesents a long-teim vision anu conciete actions
on how to collaboiatively builu anu activate the iegion's human capital. A final section offeis a seiies of
iecommenuations on what the countiies of the iegion can anu shoulu uo, inuiviuually anu collectively.
1 The manuate of the Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup (RNSu) incluues the nations known as Cential Ameiica's Noithein
Tiiangle ÷El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias ÷ as well as Nexico anu the 0niteu States. Nany of the Stuuy uioup's
obseivations anu iecommenuations aie also of value to the othei countiies of the iegion.
Hiqrotion bos belpeJ sbope onJ Jejine tbe 0S relotionsbip
witb Hexico for more tbon o century, onJ tbot witb
mucb of Centrol Americo for tbe lost S0 or so yeors.
2
A. Chongìng Assumptìons
Since at least the 197us, iapiu population giowth, inauequate economic oppoitunities, anu, in some aieas,
violence anu public insecuiity have uiiven youngei woikeis anu youth in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica to
seek oppoitunity in the 0niteu States. In iecent yeais, howevei, much of the iegion has been uiamatically
tiansfoimeu by slowing population giowth, iising euucational attainment, anu expanuing economies
uespite a tuibulent global economic climate. The longstanuing assumption that Nexico anu Cential
Ameiica have an enuless supply of less-euucateu woikeis foi ioutine, physically uemanuing, anu pooily
paiu jobs in the 0niteu States is becoming less anu less accuiate when it comes to Nexico, anu in the yeais
aheau, anu with the iight iefoims, foi much of Cential Ameiica.
Foi neaily 4u yeais, the 0niteu States has expeiienceu veiy high immigiation fiom the iegion, compiiseu
of both legal anu illegal flows. Fueleu by an economy that geneiateu a seemingly unenuing uemanu foi
low-wage woikeis, illegal immigiation fiom Nexico anu Cential Ameiica has piimaiily iesponueu to 0S
maiket foices. The uieat Recession of 2uu8 anu its afteimath of fiscal unceitainty anu slow job giowth
have playeu a laige iole in the changing assumptions about the futuie of intiaiegional migiation anu
paiticulaily illegal immigiation. But so has significantly stiengtheneu boiuei anu inteiioi enfoicement.
The evei-giowing uifficulties anu uangeis of ciossing the boiuei anu the gieatei likelihoou of uetection
anu iemoval once in the 0niteu States have now become ioutine expeiiences foi woulu-be anu seasoneu
migiants alike.
At the same time, anu as a iesult of economic iefoims that began in the 198us anu became ueeply
embeuueu in the miu-199us, the Nexican economy has been on a sustaineu upwaiu path. Since 2uuu,
Nexico's annual uBP giowth iate in non-iecession yeais has typically aveiageu between S anu 4 peicent.
Fuitheimoie, the uieat Recession, while thiusting the 0niteu States (anu most othei high-income
countiies) onto a slow giowth tiajectoiy fiom which they have yet to iecovei, seems to have lanueu only
a glancing blow to Nexico. Aftei contiacting shaiply in 2uu9, the Nexican economy iecoveieu stiongly
in 2u1u anu 2u11. Peihaps most impoitant, Nexico has been expeiiencing a stiong anu steauy giowth of
its miuule class, which has cieateu enoimous economic giowth anu social uevelopment oppoitunities ÷
maue all the moie possible because of a stable macioeconomic anu political enviionment.
Bemogiaphy is also playing an impoitant iole in this tiansfoimation. Nexico's biith iate has ueclineu
steauily, usheiing in a uemogiaphic tiansition that staiteu neaily Su yeais ago. Its uiviuenus aie
extiemely impoitant: slowei population giowth, ueclining numbeis of youth (anu hence uwinuling
numbeis of new laboi foice entiants), impioveu living stanuaius anu euucation levels, anu a soon-to-be
aging society.
This positive economic outlook foi Nexico, togethei with the massive 0S boiuei anu inteiioi enfoicement
builuup anu the still-limping 0S laboi maiket, has iesulteu in fewei youngei woikeis being uiawn to
the longstanuing tiauition of looking to "el Noite" as a neai iite-of-passage. Insteau, many moie young
Nexicans aie completing high school anu seeking oppoitunity in Nexico. These changes have extenueu to
iegions of tiauitionally high emigiation to the 0niteu States. The numbeis of emigiants fiom Nexico have,
as a iesult, fallen by moie than two-thiius since the miu-2uuus. In shaip contiast to the peiiou fiom 199S
to 2uu6, when the unauthoiizeu population fiom Nexico giew by aiounu 4.S million, net illeqol migiation
fiom Nexico has been at oi neai zeio since 2uu7, as has net totol immigiation fiom Nexico since 2u1u ÷
anu most obseiveis expect these changes to peisist.
The uemogiaphic pictuie is ielatively moie complicateu foi Cential Ameiica's Noithein Tiiangle. El
Salvauoi is also in uemogiaphic tiansition with slowing population giowth anu giauual aging. uuatemala
anu Bonuuias, howevei, aie still countiies of high biith iates anu population giowth anu aie expecteu to
iemain so foi seveial uecaues.
These countiies aie also expeiiencing iecent suiges in uiug tiafficking, violence, anu tiansnational
ciime that aie ueepening chionic pioblems of weak cential goveinment institutions anu public secuiity,
3
especially in iemote anu typically impoveiisheu aieas. Foi many among these people anu iegions,
migiation is peiceiveu as the only alteinative to poveity, lack of oppoitunity, anu woisening peisonal
secuiity.
B. lnstìtutìonol Re(orms ond the Rule o( Low
Alongsiue the uemogiaphic, euucational, anu economic changes taking place in the iegion, significant
shifts aie also unueiway that aie affecting the ieach of the iule of law in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica ÷
an essential uimension of a society's ability to auvance anu piospei. uoveinments in these countiies have
hau to contenu with many uomestic anu exteinal challenges in the iecent past, none as challenging as
the ieality of the expanuing powei of oiganizeu ciime. The iesult has been obvious to analysts anu the
iegion's people alike: the challenge to the goveinment's monopoly on the use of foice; the massive toll on
human life; official coiiuption that has spieau anu taken ueepei ioot at vaiious levels of goveinment anu
law enfoicement; anu the tiansfoimation of the social lanuscape.
As a iesult, these countiies have hau to contenu with anu auuiess the institutional weaknesses that fuel
the uisoiuei, anu shoie up the ability of political systems to caiiy out many of the funuamental tasks of
goou goveinance. Laige segments of civil society in the Noithein Tiiangle anu many in Nexico have little
confiuence in the state's ability to pioviue the public secuiity anu othei seivices citizens expect fiom
theii goveinments. Yet, the iegion's citizens have pioven iemaikably iesilient in auapting to changing
economic anu political ciicumstances, anu the iisk is that people may aujust to the iecent waves of
violence anu come to accept it as the "new noimal."
Notwithstanuing these challenges, the countiies of the iegion aie taking steps to builu piopeily
functioning anu matuie uemociatic states that can meet goou goveinance ciiteiia. Fuitheimoie, the
subject of migiation offeis policymakeis impoitant aieas of oppoitunity to iuentify anu enact smait
policies anu investments with the potential to help stiengthen the iule of law. These incluue cieating iule-
of-law fiamewoiks foi migiation management thioughout the iegion, ieuucing coiiuption by builuing
capacity anu confiuence in law enfoicement institutions, anu piomoting a cultuie of economic giowth anu
piouuctivity that encouiages fuithei foimal economic activity.
In none of these aieas is the 0niteu States exempt fiom the stiategic impeiative of tackling its own
challenges in goveinance. Auuiessing these aieas will iequiie establishing ciucial tiust within anu acioss
boiueis anu, foi each nation, a continueu sensitivity to othei countiies' ciitical aieas of concein even
when these conceins may not be natuial uomestic policy piioiities foi the fiist countiy.
C. Mokìng the US lmmìgrotìon System More Responsìve to Lobor Morket ond £conomìc Needs
An estimateu 11.7 million Nexicans, 1.S million Salvauoians, 8S1,uuu uuatemalans, anu 491,uuu
Bonuuians live in the 0niteu States. Immigiants fiom these foui countiies aie estimateu to account foi
appioximately 7S peicent of the estimateu 11 million unauthoiizeu inuiviuuals living in the 0niteu States.
Thus, the immigiation iefoim effoits now unfoluing in the 0niteu States have significant implications foi
the iegion.
Foi much of the nation's iecent histoiy, immigiation policy has hau thiee bioau goals: family (ie)
unification foi 0S citizens anu lawful peimanent iesiuents with close family membeis, meeting legitimate
laboi maiket neeus, anu iefuge foi those in neeu of humanitaiian piotection. With the exception of
the immeuiate families of 0S citizens, who can be joineu by theii spouses, minoi chiluien, anu paients
outsiue of numeiical limits, the uemanu foi visas among the iemaining stieams substantially exceeus
the supply of visas the 0S Congiess authoiizes. As a iesult, the system fails to hainess immigiation
systematically to piomote 0S economic giowth anu competitiveness well ÷ incluuing by implementing
flexible piovisions to allow immigiation to iesponu to the ebbs anu flows of uemanu ÷ oi to (ie)unify
close family membeis on a timely basis.
4
A bioau oveihaul of 0S immigiation law woulu encompass moie effective solutions to auuiess both
legal anu illegal immigiation. At this wiiting, the political impeiatives anu policy momentum favoiing
enactment of such legislation appeaieu piomising. The pioposals outlineu in this iepoit aie uesigneu
to enable the legislation that emeiges to succeeu in enuing the cultuie of illegality that has uefineu
immigiation fiom the iegion in iecent uecaues anu cieate oppoitunities foi the iegion to boost giowth
anu competitiveness ovei the longei teim. The ultimate aim of immigiation iefoim in the 0niteu States
but also thioughout the iegion shoulu be cleai: legality, oiuei, faiiness, safety, anu iespect foi the iights of
all foieign nationals. With a focus on 0S iefoims, they shoulu incluue the following elements:
An eaineu legalization piogiam that is as inclusive as possible anu leaus to gieen-caiu
eligibility anu the eventual option of citizenship foi those who meet the iequiiements.
Continueu attention to boiuei contiols, not only as mechanisms to keep out unuesiiable
inuiviuuals anu contiabanu, but also as impoitant symbols of each countiy's soveieignty.
Enfoicement of the law not just at boiueis, but also in ieceiving communities anu in
woikplaces, theieby safeguaiuing citizen secuiity anu the integiity of immigiation systems.
A iegional piefeience foi woikeis at miu- anu lowei-skill levels to meet seasonal anu othei
piimaiily tempoiaiy woikei neeus, thus cieating incentives foi woulu-be immigiant woikeis
to bettei piepaie foi access to such visas by builuing theii skills anu playing by the iules of
theii own countiy.
Explicit iecognition of the impoitance of ciiculaiity by actively "encouiaging" it thiough
thoughtful policies of tempoiaiy anu tiansitional woikei piogiams that follow the ebbs anu
flows of ielative uemanu within the iegion. Boing so at this phase, in effect iecieating the
migiation ihythm between the 0niteu States anu Nexico that existeu befoie the haiuening of
the 0S boiuei, will also set the stage foi the gieatei mobility within the iegion that is likely to
become moie the noim in the next uecaue anu beyonu.
Bevising a consultative mechanism foi the 0S feueial goveinment to engage systematically
with state anu local juiisuictions so that theii immigiation neeus, aiising fiom fully vetteu
economic uevelopment plans, aie auuiesseu thiough taigeteu woikei visa schemes.
The Stuuy uioup also believes that ceitain auuitional, if peihaps naiiowei, iueas must also be ieflecteu in
0S legislation anu auopteu thioughout the iegion. These incluue:
Explicit authoiization foi holueis of tempoiaiy anu "piovisional" woik visas (which offei the
possibility of eaining peimanent status) to change employeis.
Establishing a ieseaich agency to caiiy out inuepenuent uemogiaphic anu laboi maiket
ieseaich anu auvise the goveinment iegulaily on aujusting the numbei of woikei visas anu the
sectois anu inuustiies to which such visas shoulu be uiiecteu. Although this iecommenuation
applies only to the 0niteu States at this time, Nexico shoulu also be thinking about this concept
as its status as an immigiant-ieceiving countiy giows in the yeai aheau.
Reunification without numeiical limits anu with minimal auministiative uelays foi gieen caiu
holueis (oi theii equivalent) in the iegion with theii spouses anu minoi chiluien.
The Stuuy uioup membeis stanu fiimly behinu these piinciples anu iueas, many of which appeai to be
cential to the iefoim piioiities of both an influential bipaitisan gioup in the 0S Senate anu the White
Bouse. The Stuuy uioup is optimistic that these iefoims can answei the compelling neeu to bettei align
the 0S employment-baseu immigiant-selection system with cuiient ÷ anu futuie ÷ economic iealities,
anu believes that these piinciples shoulu giauually finu theii way into similai iefoim effoits thioughout
the iegion.
5
D. New Approoches to Mìgrotìon Re(orm ìn Mexìco ond Centrol Amerìco
Nexican policymakeis, too, have been iesponuing to the changing composition anu volume of migiation
flows in the iegion. Nexico's iole in the iegional migiation system has evolveu fiom that of a piincipal
migiant-senuing countiy to that of a teiiitoiy thiough which migiants seeking illegal entiy into the
0niteu States pass. Nany tens of thousanus of tiansmigiants ÷ most of them oiiginating in the Noithein
Tiiangle ÷ pass thiough Nexico annually en ioute to the 0niteu States. Peihaps even moie impoitant to
note heie is that Nexico is also emeiging as a significant uestination foi migiants.
In laige pait as a iesult of these iealities, the countiy enacteu a lanumaik national migiation law in 2u11
that signaleu its fiist majoi ieview of immigiation policy since 1974. The measuie, which took effect in
late 2u12, was the piouuct of yeais of uiscussion with expeits anu civil society.
As Nexico giapples with its evolving iole in the iegion's migiation uynamics, policymakeis anu othei
stakeholueis aie beginning to auuiess questions iegaiuing the extent to which the countiy will facilitate
oi uetei tiansmigiation, the institutional challenges of migiation management, anu how to woik moie
effectively with neighbois both to its noith anu, evei moie impoitantly, to its south. The specific issues
Nexico must giapple with incluue stiategically managing the piocess by which foieign woikeis aie
legally aumitteu, uisentangling anu auuiessing the inteisecting uynamics of migiation flows anu secuiity
challenges, anu bettei piotection of the countiy's southein boiuei. In embaiking on this couise, Nexico
knows that a uiffeient ielationship within the iegion can only be successful if it is anchoieu on iespect foi
boiueis anu piomotes oiganic collaboiation towaiu maintaining boiuei integiity.
While many migiation management activities aie necessaiily the iesponsibility of soveieign goveinments
anu must be iecognizeu as such, theie aie consiueiable avenues of oppoitunity foi iegional coopeiation.
It is impoitant that each of the countiies in the iegion assess anu iethink its iole in auuiessing the
challenges anu oppoitunities poseu by migiation, with the goal of cieating the conuitions in which
migiation can be a souice of bettei oppoitunities foi the iegion anu its citizens. Coopeiation anu
collaboiation, baseu on builuing tiust anu puisuing shaieu aims thiough piactical, on-the-giounu
ielationships, aie ciitical to ieaching the goals of gieatei safety anu the economic giowth anu social
uevelopment that aie at the heait of well-functioning, inclusive, anu stable uemociatic societies.
Coopeiation on some migiation issues is alieauy occuiiing with consiueiable success. Effoits involving
the 0niteu States incluue collaboiative bilateial anu multilateial appioaches to infoimation-shaiing on
ciiminal uepoitees; militaiy-law enfoicement opeiational planning, intelligence shaiing, anu tiaining;
infoimation exchanges on those at iisk foi human tiafficking; anu piotection of unaccompanieu minois.
Intiaiegional coopeiation effoits incluue expansion of Cential Ameiican consulai netwoiks in Nexico,
infoimation-shaiing on uepoitees, anu fiee movement between the Cential Ameiican countiies.
Such coopeiation will not eliminate the asymmetiical natuie of bilateial anu iegional ielationships on
migiation oi the inheient uifficulties of cooiuination on the issue. Nonetheless, most obseiveis see an
unambiguous neeu foi exploiing the possibility of ieaching consensus aiounu shaieu goals with Nexico
anu in the iegion that govein how the pieces fit togethei. 0S immigiation iefoim legislation, if it succeeus,
will in fact have to iely on fai gieatei coopeiation with Nexico (anu the othei countiies of inteiest to
this effoit) in the implementation of the eaineu legalization onJ "futuie flows" paits of the legislation.
Biscussion on these issues must stait in eainest if the aims anu benefits of the new law foi the people of
the iegion, incluuing 0S citizens anu iesiuents, aie to be iealizeu. Noieovei, without fai moie oiganic 0S-
Nexico onJ reqionol consultations anu coopeiation on the implementation of the law, the status quo of
Cooperotion on some miqrotion issues
is olreoJy occurrinq witb consiJeroble success.
6
mostly au hoc sets of piojects that lack bioauei stiategic cohesion oi meaning will continue to uefine how
the 0niteu States woiks with the iegion, anu vice veisa. That woulu be tiuly a lost oppoitunity.
£. A Longer-Term Regìonol Yìsìon (or Humon-Copìtol Development
Nigiation will continue to play a piominent iole in iegional ielations in the yeais aheau. But the
unueilying assumptions about the uiiveis of iegional migiation aie changing, if in uiffeient ways anu at
uiffeient iates. Two of these uiiveis, uemogiaphy anu miuule-class-fueleu economic giowth, aie at the
heait of these changes.
Foi people in the iegion to have the tools to impiove theii economic piospects while enhancing Noith
Ameiican competitiveness anu cieating conuitions foi sustainable giowth anu shaieu piospeiity foi the
futuie, howevei, iequiies a iegional anu cooiuinateu appioach to impioving human capital. Anu foi that
effoit to succeeu, it must be pait of a stiategy that incoipoiates the foices at woik by taking into account
the iegion's uemogiaphic anu economic complementaiities anu constantly assesses anu ieassesses its
skills neeus.
The Stuuy uioup has analyzeu anu elaboiateu this vision anu, with this iepoit, is making the policy case
foi managing migiation anu the issues that fuel it in ways that lay out a iealistic ioaumap towaiu bettei
oppoitunities foi the citizens of the iegion foi the next uecaue anu beyonu. In uoing so, it has iuentifieu
anu is amplifying iueas foi enhancing human secuiity anu iegional appioaches to social anu economic
uevelopment. If the vision takes holu, managing continueu human mobility will become moie akin to
auministeiing a shaieu iesouice foi mutual benefit than continuing to tiy to stop foices that aie in many
ways beyonu the ieach of goveinments.
Success in this quest woulu mean taigeting the issues that complicate touay's ielationships. These
iange fiom safei anu bettei functioning boiueis anu iegional secuiity issues, to moie efficient ways of
managing laboi mobility, piotecting families, cieating bettei oppoitunities foi all woikeis of the iegion,
woiking togethei to safeguaiu immigiants' iights, anu integiating bettei each othei's nationals who
aie longei-teim immigiants. Such effoits woulu leain fiom iecent anu cuiient stiuggles anu apply such
knowleuge to iuentifying anu piomoting iueas that builu a much stiongei social anu economic founuation
foi the iegion by 2u2S. If successful, uecisions about whethei anu wheie to migiate woulu become
genuine choices, as chaiacteiize othei foims of exchange between fiienus anu neighbois that shaie
common policy objectives.
Such long-teim thinking takes aim at a sometimes neglecteu policy aiea: the laboi maiket, euucation, anu
woikfoice uevelopment policies that can iesult in builuing anu efficiently allocating the iegion's human
capital anu become the engine foi peisonal oppoitunity anu societal giowth.
The Stuuy uioup iecognizes that the political anu auministiative capacity, as well as iequisite financial
iesouices, is piobably beyonu what may be available touay. Still, it is essential to uevelop a cleai-sighteu
policy agenua as the basis foi changing the facts on the giounu in ways that can impiove the piospects foi
all citizens, anu thus ieuuce existing emigiation piessuies. A bosic unJerlyinq proposition in tbis reqorJ
is tbot to moke meoninqful proqress toworJ o Jifferent miqrotion future, it is essentiol to look onJ tbink
beyonJ miqrotion per se.
Tbe unJerlyinq ossumptions obout tbe Jrivers of reqionol miqrotion ore
cbonqinq, if in Jifferent woys onJ ot Jifferent rotes.
7
I. Shopìng New Polìcìes
To that enu, the Stuuy uioup has exploieu piactical solutions to such haiu policy puzzles as managing
boiuei, inteiioi, anu peisonal secuiity in an eia of gieatei human mobility; anu moueinizing euucation,
woikfoice uevelopment, anu, giauually, qualifications anu cieuentialing systems. Issues of iegional laboi
stanuaius, hainessing uemogiaphic anu skill complementaiities, anu encouiaging ciiculaiity anu smaitei
emigiation anu ieintegiation policies within countiies of oiigin must also become fai moie piominent.
uieatei unueistanuing anu cooiuination of euucation, tiaining, skills acquisition, anu cieuentialing
initiatives (so that woikeis ieceive piopei "cieuit" foi theii skills anu expeiiences as they change jobs),
anu bettei integiateu caieei lauueis in key occupations acioss the iegion woulu likely iesult in highei
wages, stiongei local economies, less infoimality, anu a moie globally competitive iegion. Beveloping
such policies is thus the fiist step towaiu bieaking touay's uistiessing cycle of illegality, exploitation,
human-capital wastage, unueiemployment anu infoimality, family uisiuption, anu the moie geneial social
uisoiuei anu meagei uevelopment outcomes that aie manifestations of the status quo.
Incieasing global economic competition will continue to challenge 0S economic leaueiship anu, ovei
time, well-being. Fiom this stanupoint, the 0niteu States, Nexico, anu Cential Ameiica ÷ togethei with
Canaua ÷ can best invest in competitiveness as a iegion by fuithei ueveloping human-capital iesouices
in moie coopeiative anu cooiuinateu ways anu ueploying them towaiu gieatei piouuctivity, jobs offeiing
family-sustaining wages, anu less inequality.
Foi such policies to succeeu, political leaueis must engage in moie collaboiative management of
migiation anu its associateu systems at eveiy stage of implementing immigiation iefoim piocesses.
This implies linking migiation, human capital, anu the futuie competitiveness of the iegion anu its
people togethei in a shaieu unueistanuing of the oppoitunities coopeiation offeis. Foi such an effoit to
be piouuctive, howevei, it must be embiaceu anu puisueu systematically by political, intellectual, anu
stakeholuei communities acioss the iegion.
This iepoit anu the continuing woik of the Stuuy uioup seek to ieset iegional migiation-ielateu ielations
anu to piepaie foi a futuie of bettei outcomes foi the iegion's citizens anu societies. The iepoit offeis a
new "vocabulaiy" foi unueistanuing anu uesciibing iegional migiation policy, anu iueas anu actions foi
policymakeis inteiesteu in setting a moie stiategic couise foi the iegion's futuie.
The Stuuy uioup's aspiiation is to continue to cultivate a bioauei uiscouise in which migiation policy is
unueistoou as a stiategic iesouice foi managing human capital anu piomoting iegional competitiveness
anu uevelopment. Such a uiscouise shoulu help iefiame the migiation uebate in the 0niteu States, within
the iegion, anu among the iegion's migiation actois, auuing a iegional uimension to migiation policy
conveisations in ways not occuiiing in touay's uebates.
Politicol leoJers must enqoqe in more colloborotive monoqement of
miqrotion onJ its ossocioteJ systems ot every stoqe of implementinq
immiqrotion reform processes.
8
l. lntroduction
Few issues shape anu uefine the 0S ielationship with Nexico anu most of Cential Ameiica as much as
migiation. uetting migiation anu the issues that fuel anu suiiounu it iight is thus vital to the iegion's
long-teim economic giowth anu piospeiity, social uevelopment anu oiuei, national anu citizen secuiity
÷ anu, in many ways, its competitiveness in a fast-changing, inteiuepenuent global economy.
The timing foi policy change seems paiticulaily piopitious. Aftei moie than a uozen yeais of political
stalemate, the 0S Congiess has ietuineu to the issue of immigiation iefoim in a bipaitisan effoit that
seems both genuine anu piomising. The 2u12 piesiuential election iesults anu the eneigy with which
immigiation iefoim is being puisueu viviuly uemonstiate the giowing influence of immigiant anu ethnic
communities, as both political paities come to iealize that the conceins of the new ethnic votei blocs,
especially Latinos anu Asians, cannot be ignoieu without thieatening the viability of the paity that
uoes so. The effoit also ieflects the weaiiness of the public anu many lawmakeis acioss the iueological
spectium about the status quo, as well as a pionounceu iealization that absent iesolution of the fate of
the 11 million oi so peisons who aie in the countiy illegally, ciitical iefoims to the 0S immigiation system
aie simply not possible.
2
What often gets lost in the passions that suiiounu the issue is that the migiation that is most contentious
in 0S politics ÷ fiom Nexico anu moie iecently Cential Ameiica ÷ is iooteu in a ieality in which 0S
inteiests, onJ especiolly 0S employers´ JemonJ for workers, weie typically the uominant ones.
Immigiation iefoim is impoitant not only foi the 0niteu States, but foi the well-being of the nations anu
peoples of the iegion. Yet, uespite iepeateu iounus of uebate iegaiuing neeueu changes in 0S immigiation
policy ovei the last 12 yeais, theie have been no systematic conveisations about what a iegional appioach
to migiation between anu among the countiies of the iegion might look like. (The conveisations between
Nexican Piesiuent vicente Fox anu 0S Piesiuent ueoige W. Bush anu theii auministiations in 2uu1 have
been the only talks along these lines between the 0niteu States anu any of its Southein neighbois.)
S
The Nigiation Policy Institute (NPI), in coopeiation with the Latin Ameiican Piogiam¡Nexico Institute
of the Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais, has sought to spaik such a conveisation by
convening a Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup (RNSu). The Stuuy uioup has consiueieu both uay-to-
uay migiation ielations ÷ incluuing coopeiating moie meaningfully on boiuei (anu bioauei) secuiity
anu associateu issues ÷ as well as ways to gain moie fiom migiation by builuing a stiongei social anu
economic founuation acioss the iegion thiough enhancing its human-capital infiastiuctuie.
Builuing up the iegion's human capital ÷ thiough euucation anu woikfoice uevelopment iefoims
that iesult in common stanuaius in key sectois expecteu to giow iobustly acioss the iegion÷ woulu
cieate bettei economic oppoitunities foi its citizens by builuing an engine foi giowth in each countiy
anu stiengthening iegional competitiveness. 0vei time, success in these iealms woulu mitigate touay's
2 Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, "The Funuamentals of Immigiation Refoim," Tbe Americon Prospect, Naich 12, 2u1S,
http:¡¡piospect.oig¡aiticle¡funuamentals-immigiation-iefoim.
S Foi iathei uiametiically uiffeient views of 0S-Nexican negotiations of that yeai, see }oige Castañeua, Fx-Hex: Irom Hiqronts
to lmmiqronts (New Yoik: The New Piess, 2uu7); anu }effiey Baviuow, Tbe Beor onJ tbe Porcupine: Tbe 0.S. onJ Hexico
(Piinceton, N}: Naikus Wienei Publisheis, 2uu4).
Iew issues sbope onJ Jejine tbe 0S relotionsbip witb Hexico
onJ most of Centrol Americo os mucb os miqrotion.
9
conceins about the scope anu "quality" of iegional migiation, while setting the stage foi futuie migiation
acioss the iegion to be moie that of genuine choice, iathei than of sheei necessity.
The Stuuy uioup's woik has been oiganizeu aiounu a set of foui bioau themes, each of which hau a
meeting ueuicateu to it.
4
Each convening was suppoiteu by an extensive set of backgiounu papeis anu,
following uiscussion by RNSu membeis anu inviteu expeits, the papeis weie ieviseu foi publication.
S

This bouy of woik has iuentifieu anu analyzeu key issues anu potential policy iueas foi uecision-makeis in
the iegion.
This final iepoit iepiesents both a synthesis of the analytical woik anu a uiscussion of the key insights
anu iecommenuations the RNSu membeis have uiawn fiom these conveisations. Noieovei, the 0S
legislative pioposals pioffeieu so fai ieflect many of the iueas agieeu to by the Stuuy uioup in its
concluuing meeting in late 2u12 ÷ anu thoughtfully placeu into the policy mix by Stuuy uioup membeis
anu conveneis alike.
This concluuing iepoit comes at a moment of unusual, anu iathei piomising, political oppoitunity in the
0niteu States foi auuiessing long-neglecteu immigiation policy challenges. It also aiiives at a moment
when veiy significant anu iathei auspicious longei-teim changes in the countiies that have been the main
focus of the oveiall effoit ÷ the 0niteu States, Nexico, El Salvauoi, anu uuatemala ÷ aie alteiing some of
the uynamics within which illegal immigiation has taken place ovei uecaues, just as newei challenges to
the peisonal secuiity anu economic well-being of many in the iegion have emeigeu.
A. Understondìng Regìonol Mìgrotìon
Nigiation flows within the iegion have uiffeient histoiies anu multiple causes. The ioots of 0S-Nexico
migiation aie ueep, ieaching back to the seconu half of the 19
th
centuiy. Nigiation fiom anu within the
iegion has giown uiamatically since the eaily 197us in the case of Nexico, anu the 198us foi Cential
Ameiica. Two out of thiee immigiants fiom the iegion (neaily 1u million people) have enteieu the
0niteu States, most illegally, since the late 198us,
6
when neaily S million unauthoiizeu immigiants
(appioximately 7S peicent of whom came fiom Nexico
7
) weie legalizeu. These high levels of illegal
migiation have ieflecteu the stiength of maiket foices that fiustiateu anu oveiwhelmeu a 0S immigiation
policy anu auministiative iegime that faileu to auapt to iapiuly changing laboi maiket ciicumstances by
aujusting its legal entiy ioutes foi tempoiaiy woik visas onJ making them available to woikeis fiom the
iegion.
As a iesult, the economic anu social "lives" of the 0niteu States, Nexico, anu Noithein Tiiangle of Cential
Ameiica (El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias) have become incieasingly inteitwineu. Neaily one in
ten Nexicans anu moie than one in six Salvauoians live in the 0niteu States,
8
while neaily 1u peicent of
inuiviuuals fiom the Noithein Tiiangle live outsiue theii home countiy ÷ the vast majoiity in the 0niteu
4 The bioau themes of the Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup (RNSu) meetings weie: "0nueistanuing the Regional Nigiation
System," "The Regional Context: Nigiation anu Bevelopment in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica," "Boiueis, Ciime, anu Secuiity:
Challenges foi Buman Secuiity anu Bevelopment," anu "Buman Capital anu Nigiation." The Stuuy uioup also sponsoieu
week-long stuuy touis foi inteiesteu membeis to El Salvauoi anu southein Nexico, wheie it met with senioi goveinment
officials, leauing analysts, the acauemic community, business leaueis, anu a bioau swath of civil society.
S The publisheu woik of the RNSu, incluuing the biiefing papeis, can be founu at www.migiationpolicy.oig¡iegionalstuuygioup.
6 Seth Notel anu Eileen Patten, Stotisticol Portroit of tbe Ioreiqn-Born Populotion in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, 2011(Washington, BC:
Pew Bispanic Centei, 2u1S), www.pewhispanic.oig¡2u1S¡u1¡29¡statistical-poitiait-of-the-foieign-boin-population-in-the-
uniteu-states-2u11¡; Nichael Boefei, Nancy Rytina, anu Biian Bakei, Fstimotes of tbe 0noutborizeJ Populotion resiJinq in
tbe 0niteJ Stotes: }onuory 2011 (Washington, BC: Bepaitment of Bomelanu Secuiity, 0ffice of Immigiation Statistics, 2u12),
www.uhs.gov¡xlibiaiy¡assets¡statistics¡publications¡ois_ill_pe_2u11.puf.
7 Nancy Rytina, lRCA leqolizotion Fffects: lowful Permonent ResiJence onJ Noturolizotion tbrouqb 2001, (Washington, BC: 0S
Immigiation anu Natuialization Seivice, 0ffice of Policy anu Planning, 2uu2), www.uhs.gov¡xlibiaiy¡assets¡statistics¡publi-
cations¡iicau114int.puf.
8 Woilu Bank, "Population, total," accesseu Apiil 22, 2u1S, http:¡¡uata.woilubank.oig¡inuicatoi¡SP.P0P.T0TL¡countiies¡NX-
Sv-BN-uT-0S.uisplay=giaph.
10
States, Nexico, oi elsewheie within Cential Ameiica.
9

At the same time, the impoitant longei-teim changes iefeiieu to above aie ieconfiguiing this neaily
4u-yeai olu pictuie. In the case of Nexico, the shifts involve the neai completion of a uemogiaphic
tiansition that is ieuucing emigiation piessuie, as well as favoiable anu sustaineu economic, social, anu
political uevelopments that make staying home a ieasonable pioposition. Foi Cential Ameiica, the pictuie
is moie uneven, with El Salvauoi making gieat stiiues towaiu, anu uuatemala having embaikeu on, a ioau
of impoitant goveinance anu economic iefoims. Finally, in the 0niteu States, the uieat Recession anu its
afteimath, anu steep investments in the machineiy of boiuei contiols anu immigiation law enfoicement,
have intiouuceu a potent new element into the migiation management lanuscape.
1u

B. Mìgrotìon Polìcy Hos Not Kept Poce wìth Regìonol £conomìc lntegrotìon
The complexity of the histoiies anu changing natuie of iegional migiation patteins make iesponses
to migiation incieasingly complicateu. If it is to succeeu, policy must take into account how migiation
inteiacts with the multiple social, cultuial, economic, anu political inteiests anu piioiities all along the
migiation aic.
The volume of migiation anu intiicacy of the issues that suiiounu it have also maue the politics of
migiation uifficult to manage. To uo it moie successfully woulu call foi the 0niteu States anu its paitneis
in the iegion to iuentify, agiee upon, anu auopt a coheient set of migiation anu associateu policy goals
anu iealistic fiamewoiks foi achieving them.
At tbis time, substontive conversotions obout miqrotion
witbin tbe reqion ore intermittent ot best.
As the iegion continues to giapple with the consequences of the economic ciisis, both its ueepening
economic inteiuepenuence anu the neeu foi builuing a bettei futuie thiough closei coopeiation have
become incieasingly cleai. Anu while the scope anu uepth of coopeiation geneially have been giowing,
migiation anu many of its implications stanu out as key challenges anu peisistent points of contention.
At this time, substantive conveisations about migiation within the iegion aie inteimittent at best anu
theie is no institutional stiuctuie in which such uiscussions take place. A continuing iegional migiation
uialogue that staiteu moie than 1S yeais ago as the Puebla Piocess
11
has nevei been able tianscenu
its initial naiiow manuate as a setting wheie, veiy quickly aftei the eaily yeais, typically miu-level
goveinment officials anu theii expeits exchange infoimation anu aii uiffeiences. The iesult is a foium
with little aim, no authoiity to negotiate anything, anu thus no paiticulai consequence. At the heait of the
uifficulty in making piogiess beyonu ioutine exchanges of views about anu "expeit" stuuies on migiation
lies the funuamental fact that so much of it occuis outsiue of legal channels. Noieovei, the 0niteu States
believes that such flows, valueu as they aie by employeis anu consumeis, challenge its ability to establish
the iule of law on immigiation while inteifeiing with the countiy's piioiities in euucation, laboi maikets,
9 Bilip Ratha, Sanket Nohapatia, anu Ani Silwal, Hiqrotion onJ Remittonces Ioctbook 2011 (Washington, BC: Woilu Bank,
2u1u).
1u Boiis Neissnei, Bonalu N. Keiwin, Nuzaffai Chishti, anu Claiie Beigeion, lmmiqrotion Fnforcement in tbe 0niteJ Stotes: Tbe
Rise of o IormiJoble Hocbinery (Washington, BC: NPI, 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡enfoicementpillais.puf.
11 In 1996 Nexico hosteu the fiist meeting of an initially bilateial conveisation about migiation, iefeiieu to at the time as the
Puebla Piocess, which quickly giew in membeiship anu has come to be known as the Regional Confeience on Nigiation
(RCN). The RCN is an inteigoveinmental foium at the vice-ministeiial level that meets annually anu seives as a foium foi
the exchange of infoimation, cooiuination, anu coopeiation on migiation issues. Foi moie, see Fiancisco Alba anu Nanuel
Angel Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional
Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-NexCentAm-Nigiation.puf.
11
anu acioss numeious fielus of social policy. Equally impoitant ÷ but fiequently oveilookeu ÷ is the way
emigiation affects the social anu economic uevelopment of souice countiies.
As a iesult, migiation anu its effects cast a shauow ovei viitually all aspects of the iegional ielationship,
anu the failuie to ueal effectively with migiation weighs uown piogiess in othei aieas wheie coopeiation
can biing about achievable mutual benefits. Inueeu, aftei two uecaues of impioveu iegional ielations
anu much ueepei economic integiation, most of wbicb qoes systemoticolly unnoticeJ by tbe 0S public,
questions about how to manage migiation continue to be at the heait of cioss-cutting clusteis of iegional
conceins about: a) income, jobs, anu economic secuiity; b) conventional secuiity, uiugs, anu social
uisoiuei; c) public health; u) family integiity; anu e) long-teim economic giowth anu competitiveness.
Biviueu into five main sections, this iepoit analyzes the changing uemogiaphic anu economic uynamics of
the iegion anu the implications foi migiation; sketches the inteiplay of secuiity policy (incluuing boiuei
secuiity), institutional iefoim, anu the iule of law; outlines the essential elements to be incluueu in 0S
immigiation iefoim; anu analyzes senuing countiies' evolving ioles in the iegional migiation system
befoie uesciibing a long-teim vision anu laying out conciete actions to collaboiatively builu anu activate
the iegion's human capital.
Rathei than hewing to a foiceuly symmetiical analysis of all policy aieas in all of the countiies, the iepoit
emphasizes the aspects of gieatest inteiest anu with most significant implications foi each. While a
consiueiation such as a neeu to buttiess the iule of law might not exhibit a uiiect link to, foi example,
human-capital uevelopment, iespective sections establish connections to the oveiaiching vision of
collaboiative migiation management acioss the iegion. The final section incoipoiates the foiegoing
into a seiies of iesounuing iecommenuations on what the countiies of the iegion can anu shoulu uo,
inuiviuually anu collectively, to auuiess these issues.
ll. Changing Assunptions
Since at least the 197us, iapiu population giowth, inauequate economic oppoitunities, anu, in some
aieas, violence anu public insecuiity have uiiven youngei woikeis anu youth in Nexico anu Cential
Ameiica to seek oppoitunity in the 0niteu States. Anu as long as oppoitunity uiffeientials ÷ the basic
calculus that uefines most immigiation ÷ continue to be veiy laige, goveinments will continue to have
an uphill battle in contiolling flows. At the same time, howevei, key paits of the iegion aie unueigoing
uiamatic tiansfoimations: slowing population giowth, iising euucational attainment, anu expanuing
economies uespite a tuibulent global economic climate. The longstanuing assumption that Nexico anu
Cential Ameiica have an enuless supply of less-euucateu woikeis foi ioutine, physically uemanuing, anu
pooily paiu jobs in the 0niteu States is becoming less anu less accuiate when it comes to Nexico, anu in
the yeais aheau, anu with the iight iefoims, it is also likely to become less accuiate fiist foi El Salvauoi
anu, giauually, uuatemala. Noie impoitant, a now embeuueu 0S intoleiance towaiu illegal immigiation
anu the employment of laige numbeis of unskilleu woikeis in sectois othei than agiicultuie anu ceitain
hospitality inuustiy jobs may make questionable the assumption that the 0nites States will continue to
absoib laige numbeis of such woikeis.
Foi moie than Su yeais, the 0niteu States has expeiienceu veiy high immigiation levels, compiiseu of
both legal anu illegal flows. Fueleu by an economy that geneiateu a seemingly unenuing uemanu foi low-
wage woikeis, illegal immigiation fiom Nexico anu Cential Ameiica has piimaiily iesponueu to maiket
foices. The uieat Recession anu its afteimath of slow job giowth have playeu a laige iole in the changing
assumptions about the futuie of intia-iegional migiation anu paiticulaily illegal immigiation. But so have
significantly stiengtheneu boiuei anu inteiioi enfoicement. The evei-giowing uifficulties anu uangeis
12
of ciossing the boiuei anu the gieatei likelihoou of uetection anu iemoval once in the 0niteu States have
become wiuely expeiienceu by woulu-be anu seasoneu migiants alike.
This massive 0S boiuei enfoicement builuup, taken togethei with the positive economic outlook foi
Nexico anu the still-limping 0S laboi maiket, has iesulteu in fewei youngei woikeis being uiawn to
the longstanuing tiauition of looking to "el Noite" as a neai iite-of-passage. Insteau, many moie young
Nexicans aie completing high school anu embaiking on futuies in Nexico. These changes have extenueu
to iegions of tiauitionally high emigiation to the 0niteu States. The numbeis leaving Nexico have,
as a iesult, fallen by moie than two-thiius since the miu-2uuus. In shaip contiast to the peiiou fiom
199S to 2uu6, when the unauthoiizeu population fiom Nexico giew by aiounu 4.S million,
12
net illeqol
immigiation fiom Nexico has been at oi neai zeio since 2uu7,
1S
as has net totol immigiation fiom Nexico
since 2u1u
14
÷ anu most obseiveis expect these changes to peisist.
As lonq os opportunity Jifferentiols continue to be very lorqe,
qovernments will continue to bove on upbill bottle in controllinq jlows.
A. Demogrophìc Outlook
1. Populatlon Growtb
Nexico's biith iate has ueclineu steauily, usheiing in a uemogiaphic tiansition that began neaily Su yeais
ago anu now tianslates into slowei population giowth (see Figuie 1), ueclining numbeis of youth (anu
hence uwinuling numbeis of new laboi foice entiants), impioveu living stanuaius anu euucation levels,
anu a soon-to-be aging society.
El Salvauoi, like Nexico, is in uemogiaphic tiansition but at a uiffeient point ÷ anu yet one alieauy
notes giauual aging anu slowing population giowth. Though uecieasing, the total feitility iates (numbei
of chiluien boin pei woman) in El Salvauoi anu Nexico still exceeu that of the 0niteu States.
1S
Cuiient
piojections, howevei, suggest that cumulative population giowth in Nexico anu El Salvauoi (iespectively
22.u anu 22.4 peicent) will be slowei than in the 0niteu States (29.S peicent) ovei the next 4u yeais. (A
laige shaie of the 0S giowth is uue to immigiation.) uuatemala anu Bonuuias, howevei, aie still countiies
of high biith iates, anu population giowth is expecteu to peisist foi seveial uecaues.
12 Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, "The Funuamentals of Immigiation Refoim," Tbe Americon Prospect, Naich 12, 2u1S,
1S }effiey Passel anu B'veia Cohn, 0.S. 0noutborizeJ lmmiqrotion Ilows Are Bown Sborply Since HiJ-BecoJe, (Washington, BC:
Pew Bispanic Centei, 2u1u), www.pewhispanic.oig¡2u1u¡u9¡u1¡us-unauthoiizeu-immigiation-flows-aie-uown-shaiply-
since-miu-uecaue¡.
14 }effiey Passel, B'veia Cohn, anu Ana uonzalez Baiieia, Net Hiqrotion from Hexico Iolls to Zero - onJ Perbops less (Washing-
ton, BC: Pew Bispanic Centei, 2u12), www.pewhispanic.oig¡files¡2u12¡u4¡Nexican-migiants-iepoit_final.puf.
1S In 2u11, total feitility iates in the iegion weie as follows: 0niteu States, 2.u7; El Salvauoi, 2.SS; Nexico, 2.41; Bonuuias, S.S1;
anu uuatemala, 4.1S. See 0niteu Nations, Bepaitment of Economic anu Social Affaiis, Population Bivision, WorlJ Populotion
Prospects: Tbe 2010 Revision (New Yoik: 0niteu Nations, 2u11), http:¡¡esa.un.oig¡unpu¡wpp¡Excel-Bata¡BBu1_Peiiou_Inui-
catois¡WPP2u1u_BB1_Fu1_T0TAL_FERTILITY.XLS.
13
Figure 1. PopuIation Growth Rates in Mexico and the Northern TriangIe, 1970s-2000s
Migration Policy Ìnstitute (MPÌ) calculations using data from the Economic Commission on Latin America and the
Caribbean (ECLAC), "Long-Term Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100,¨ www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/
basedatos_BD.htm.
Figure 2. CumuIative PopuIation Growth in the United States, Mexico, and the Northern TriangIe,
2010-50
: MPÌ calculations using ECLAC data, "Long-Term Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100.¨
3.3
2.5
2.9
3.5
2.1
1.5
2.7
3.5
1.9
1.2
2.6
2.7
1.3
0.4
2.8
2.2
Mexico El Salvador Guatemala Honduras
P
o
p
u
I
a
t
i
o
n

G
r
o
w
t
h

R
a
t
e
s

(
%
)
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Mexico: 22.0%
EI SaIvador: 22.4%
GuatemaIa: 90.8%
Honduras 58.2%
US: 29.5%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
C
u
m
u
I
a
t
i
v
e

P
o
p
u
I
a
t
i
o
n

G
r
o
w
t
h

(
%
)
Year
14
2. Youtb ano Aglng
The meuian age of the population has incieaseu uiamatically in Nexico anu El Salvauoi. By the enu of the
cuiient uecaue, moie than half the population in these two countiies will be beyonu the ages of coie laboi
maiket entiy anu householu foimation. The numbei of 1S- to 24-yeai-olus will begin ueclining in Nexico
anu El Salvauoi between 2u1S anu 2u2u. uuatemala anu Bonuuias aie in a uiffeient position; they will
not expeiience compaiable changes until the late 2uSus oi beyonu.
3. Loucatlonal Attalnment
Alongsiue slowei population giowth, the iegion's countiies have been able to make gieatei investments
in euucation. Aveiage euucational attainment among Nexican 1S- to 19-yeai-olus has essentially
conveigeu with that of 0S peeis, although theie continues to be a gap among youth ages 2u to 24. The
shaie of Nexicans ages 2S to 29 with postseconuaiy euucation is compaiable to what occuiieu in the
0niteu States in the miu-196us, when iising euucational attainment began to tianslate into economic
giowth. 0ne iesult has been fewei youngei woikeis attempting to migiate to the 0niteu States. Insteau,
they complete high school anu embaik on futuies in Nexico. These changes have extenueu to iegions
of tiauitionally high emigiation to the 0niteu States. Bowevei, uespite piogiess ovei the past uecaue,
euucational attainment in Cential Ameiica continues to lag behinu Nexico anu the 0niteu States.
Figure 3. Average Years of EducationaI Attainment by Age Group and Country, 1950-2010
Barro-Lee, Educational Attainment Dataset v.1.2, accessed February 17, 2013, www.barrolee.com/data/full1.htm.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
2
0
1
0
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
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1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
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15
4. |ncome ano Poverty
Poveity, inequality, anu social maiginalization aie piessing social challenges thioughout the iegion,
paiticulaily in iuial communities. But the iegion is also home to a giowing miuule class, especially in
Nexico, wheie piuuent macioeconomic policies since the miu-199us anu taigeteu social investments that
began in the 198us anu have been given a chance to uevelop ioots have contiibuteu to stable giowth.
B. Chongìng Ilows
Bistoiically, migiation fiom Nexico to the 0niteu States was composeu of young auults (mostly males)
with veiy little euucation. 0ntil the eaily 198us, they typically ciosseu back anu foith acioss the boiuei
to meet seasonal laboi neeus, piimaiily in agiicultuie in the southwestein 0niteu States. Fiom 1964
onwaiu, when a 0S-Nexico woik piogiam that began officially in 1942 (known infoimally as the
"biaceio" piogiam) was teiminateu by the 0niteu States, these flows occuiieu thiough infoimal channels
iathei than thiough any oiganizeu oi manageu piogiams. As 0S uemanu foi low-skilleu woikeis in
sectois beyonu agiicultuie anu in othei paits of the countiy giew, anu 0S laws faileu to accommouate the
incieasing uemanu, the stage was set foi touay's ieality, wheieby appioximately 6 million Nexicans live in
the 0niteu States illegally.
16
Nigiation fiom Cential Ameiica to the 0niteu States uates back to the late 197us anu 198us, when civil
wais in the iegion piompteu many Cential Ameiicans to flee, initially to Nexico. 0vei time, Cential
Ameiicans seeking iefuge in Nexico became incoipoiateu into the flows of Nexicans noithwaiu,
establishing patteins of economic migiation that continue touay, although violence, insecuiity, anu
natuial uisasteis have also playeu impoitant ioles.
The iesult has been that the Nexican anu Cential Ameiican immigiant population in the 0niteu States
giew iapiuly, paiticulaily in paits of the countiy that hau, until then, expeiienceu veiy little immigiation.
Aftei giowing continuously since the eaily 197us, the Nexican unauthoiizeu population has stabilizeu,
anu may have even ueclineu since the collapse of the constiuction sectoi in 2uu7 anu the onset of
the iecession in 2uu8. }ob losses in many of the sectois in which sizeable numbeis of unauthoiizeu
immigiants fiom the iegion hau founu employment (fiist anu foiemost constiuction), the tepiu pace of
the 0S economic iecoveiy, evei-giowing boiuei contiols, anu laige-scale iemovals that have aveiageu
neaily 4uu,uuu peisons pei yeai ovei the last five yeais ceitainly contiibuteu to the change. But most
obseiveis agiee that Nexico's changing uemogiaphic piofile anu ielative economic stiength have
also ieuuceu the economic factois pushing a new geneiation of young people to leave. Nexicans have
continueu to migiate to the 0niteu States thiough legal immigiation channels, but unauthoiizeu flows
have fallen uiamatically fiom theii height in the miu-2uuus.
17
The chaiacteiistics of Nexican aiiivals since the onset of the iecession have also changeu: A giowing
numbei have been bettei euucateu than eailiei cohoits. Among newly aiiiveu Nexican immigiant youth
in 2uu6, foi example, only one in 2u hau a bacheloi's uegiee oi highei; five yeais latei, the iatio was moie
than one in ten.
18

Simultaneously, theie is a giowing ietuin flow fiom the 0niteu States to Nexico, incluuing substantial
numbeis of 0S-boin chiluien of Nexican paients. Euucation officials in Nexico iepoit giowing
eniollments of English-speaking chiluien in Nexican schools, especially in iuial communities wheie theie
has been a long tiauition of migiation to the 0niteu States. Some of this is uoubtlessly the iesult of iising
uepoitations that have affecteu ueeply mixeu-immigiation-status families.
16 Passel, Cohn, anu uonzalez Baiieia, Net Hiqrotion from Hexico Iolls to Zero - onJ Perbops less.
17 Papauemetiiou, "The Funuamentals of Immigiation Refoim."
18 The cohoit of Nexican youth spans ages 21 to Su at time of suivey, who aiiiveu in the pievious thiee yeais (incluuing suivey
yeai); 0S Census Buieau, 2uu6 anu 2u11 Ameiican Community Suivey (ACS).
16
Among Cential Ameiicans, the tienus aie less cleai. The Cential Ameiican immigiant population in the
0niteu States continueu to giow thiough the iecent iecession. Theie has been less ietuin migiation to
Cential Ameiica, othei than uepoitations fiom the 0niteu States. 0veiall, migiation flows fiom Cential
Ameiica to the 0niteu States uo not appeai to be changing as iapiuly oi as funuamentally as migiation
flows fiom Nexico to the 0niteu States.
Eviuence is also mounting that Cential Ameiican flows may be incieasingly fueleu by giowing levels of
uiug tiafficking, violence, anu tiansnational ciime. These thieats aie ueepening chionic pioblems of
lawlessness anu weak goveinment institutions, especially in matteis of public secuiity in iemote aieas
that aie pooi anu isolateu. Foi these populations anu iegions, migiation is peiceiveu by many as the only
alteinative to woisening peisonal secuiity conuitions anu lack of viable economic oppoitunities in theii
home countiies.
C. £conomìc Growth
As a iesult of iefoims maue ovei the last thiee uecaues, the Nexican economy has been ielatively stiong
in iecent yeais. The uieat Recession seems to have lanueu only a glancing blow to Nexico while thiusting
the 0niteu States, Euiopean nations, anu othei high-income countiies onto a slow giowth path fiom
which they have not yet been able to escape. Nexico's annual uBP giowth iate ieacheu 6.6 peicent in
2uuu, anu in the non-iecession yeais (that is, apait fiom 2uu1 anu 2uu9 when the economy contiacteu)
has typically aveiageu between S anu 4 peicent. Aftei contiacting shaiply in 2uu9, it iecoveieu stiongly
in 2u1u anu 2u11. Peihaps most impoitant, Nexico is expeiiencing the soliu giowth of a miuule class,
cieating enoimous economic giowth anu social uevelopment oppoitunities.
Whethei iecent changes in migiation tienus will last involves many factois, incluuing how the iegion's
economies will evolve in the yeais aheau. But uespite its ueep exposuie to continueu economic weakness
in the 0niteu States, Nexico appeais poiseu to benefit fiom iapiuly evolving global economic conuitions
÷ incluuing iising uomestic consumption in some East Asian economies.
19
In fact, seveial majoi Nexican
multinationals aie moving beyonu tiauitional maikets in the 0niteu States anu Latin Ameiica anu aie
expanuing into Asia.
In Cential Ameiica, economic giowth has geneially been even highei than in Nexico, although moie
volatile, uiiven by iecoveiy fiom natuial uisasteis anu by expoits to the 0niteu States, Euiope, anu
elsewheie in Latin Ameiica. Still, it has pioven uifficult foi the iegion to move beyonu low value-auueu
inuustiies oi make heauway towaiu ueveloping a iegional compaiative auvantage in global maikets.
Bespite cautious optimism iegaiuing the iegion's futuie economic outlook, theie aie impoitant iisks as
well. The iegion iemains heavily uepenuent on 0S consumeis, anu although the 0S economic outlook
has impioveu consiueiably ovei the past yeai, peisistent high unemployment anu fiscal consoliuation aie
likely to continue iestiaining giowth.
Tbe complexity of tbe bistories onJ cbonqinq noture of reqionol miqrotion
potterns moke responses to miqrotion increosinqly complicoteJ.
The pictuie foi the iegion oveiall is one of iapiu economic iestiuctuiing anu social anu political
iealignments, the last stages of a long uemogiaphic tiansition in Nexico, anu continuing stiong
19 0ii Bauush anu Shimelse Ali, "Who Will uain fiom a Renminbi Revaluation," voxE0, Becembei 9, 2u1u,
http:¡¡cainegieenuowment.oig¡2u1u¡12¡u9¡who-will-gain-fiom-ienminbi-ievaluation¡2exj.
17
population giowth in much of Cential Ameiica. It is also one of ueepening anu bioauening economic
inteiuepenuence that has laigely been iooteu in migiation uynamics cieateu by stiiking vaiiations in
economic oppoitunity.
As a iesult, the economic anu social lives of the 0niteu States, Nexico, anu seveial Cential Ameiican
countiies have become incieasingly inteitwineu. The complexity of the histoiies anu changing natuie of
iegional migiation patteins make iesponses to migiation incieasingly complicateu. Policy must also take
into account how migiation inteiacts with myiiau social, cultuial, economic, anu political inteiests anu
piioiities all along the migiation continuum.
lll. lnstitutionaI Reforns and the RuIe of Law
Alongsiue the uemogiaphic, euucational, anu economic changes taking place in the iegion, significant
shifts aie unueiway that aie affecting the powei anu ieach of the iule of law in Nexico anu Cential
Ameiica ÷ an essential uimension of a society's ability to auvance anu piospei. uoveinance stiuctuies
that hau functioneu efficiently in Nexico uuiing seven uecaues of one-paity iule, anu at times in the
Noithein Tiiangle countiies, have bioken apait in iecent yeais amiu incieasing exteinal piessuies
anu inability to auapt to new iealities. As a iesult, these countiies suffei fiom wiuespieau institutional
weaknesses anu theii political systems aie not consistently able to caiiy out many of the funuamental
tasks of goou goveinance. These ciitical functions incluue establishing anu enfoicing iules to manage
violence anu political conflict within the society, anu cieating equality of access oi oppoitunity to fostei
the long-teim social anu economic uevelopment of these nations, as well as the welfaie of theii citizens.
0vei the past two uecaues, oiganizeu ciime has taken contiol of ciitical economic activities in Nexico
anu the Noithein Tiiangle. Noninstitutional actois ÷ paiticulaily uiug caitels ÷ have oveiiun anu
tiansfoimeu the social lanuscape, challenging the goveinment's monopoly on the use of foice, while
coiiuption has spieau anu taken ueepei ioot at vaiious levels of goveinment anu law enfoicement.
2u
In
Nexico, ovei 6u,uuu lives weie lost between 2uu6 anu 2u12 as Felipe Calueion's auministiation tackleu
the caitels.
21
Cential Ameiica has become what Stuuy uioup Co-Chaii Euuaiuo Stein anu otheis have
uesciibeu as a "seivice station" foi illegality,
22
as a iesult of a volatile combination of weak institutions,
peivasive inequality, anu geogiaphic location. Acioss paits of the iegion, those suffeiing the most aie
those who cannot affoiu to insulate themselves fiom violence thiough piivate secuiity oi senu theii
chiluien to high-quality schools to escape ueteiioiating social anu economic conuitions. As a iesult, laige
segments of civil society in Cential Ameiica, less so in Nexico, have lost confiuence in the state's ability to
pioviue the public seivices they expect fiom theii goveinments. The ueepei symptom of these afflictions
is weak institutions.
0ver tbe post two JecoJes, orqonizeJ crime bos token control of criticol
economic octivities in Hexico onJ tbe Nortbern Trionqle.
2u Luis Rubio, ln tbe lurcb Betwoeen 6overnment onJ Cboos: 0nconsoliJoteJ Bemocrocy in Hexico (Washington, BC: NPI, Re-
gional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-0nconsoliuateuBemociacy.puf.
21 Buman Rights Watch, Hexico´s BisoppeoreJ: Tbe FnJurinq Cost of o Crisis lqnoreJ (Buman Rights Watch, 2u1S),
www.hiw.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡iepoits¡mexicou21Swebwcovei.puf.
22 }osé Auán Silva, "Somos "estacion ue seivicio" uel naicotiáfico," Fl Nuevo Biorio, Nay 9, 2u11, www.elnuevouiaiio.com.ni¡
nacionales¡1u169S_somos-%E2%8u%9Cestaci%CS%BSn-ue-seivicio%E2%8u%9B-uel-naicoti%CS%A1fico
18
At the same time, the iegion's citizens have pioven iemaikably iesilient in auapting to these
ciicumstances. While encouiaging, the iisk embeuueu in such iesilience is that people may aujust to the
iecent waves of violence anu come to accept it as the "new noimal." As Stuuy uioup membei Luis Rubio
aigues in his just-ieleaseu book, Hexico Hotters: Cbonqe in Hexico onJ lts lmpoct upon tbe 0niteJ Stotes,
citizens of these countiies aie not coiiupt oi inclineu towaiu the infoimal economy by eithei natuie oi
cultuie. Rathei, in the absence of goou goveinance anu in the face of poweiful exteinal foices, coiiuption
anu infoimality seive as the tools that membeis of these societies use to cope with theii ciicumstances
because they see no othei choice.
2S
Rubio points out that coiiuption laigely stems fiom two souices: a "iapacious" political system anu
complex, ambiguous, anu aibitiaiy laws anu iules that make life uifficult foi the aveiage citizen, so that
coiiuption becomes "a iational iesponse to avoiu inteiminable hassles of uaily life."
24
Thus, coiiuption is
uiiectly coiielateu to weak institutions anu lack of checks anu balances.
voluntaiy compliance with the law by the vast majoiity of the population is an essential ingieuient foi the
piopei functioning of the iule of law. Incieasing effoits to expanu the cultuie of legality must take place in
Nexico anu Cential Ameiica. These effoits, to be successful, must incluue cleai eviuence of the faiiness of
law enfoicement anu of the benefits to society that iesult fiom abiuing by the law.
Notwithstanuing consiueiable challenges, the countiies of the iegion aie taking steps to builu piopeily
functioning anu matuie uemociatic states that can pioviue goou goveinance. Nexico continues to
consoliuate its uemociatic tiansition anu stiengthen the iule of law thioughout its teiiitoiy. Although
aftei a 12-yeai absence the piesiuency is once again helu by the Paitiuo Revolucionaiio Institucional
(PRI), the ietuin to the total uominance the paity helu foi 71 yeais is unlikely. Piesiuent Eniique Peña
Nieto anu his team must contenu with a Congiess that is a foium foi ieal negotiation anu uebate, anu
they aie alieauy showing, with the "Pact foi Nexico"
2S
anu majoi iefoims in laboi, euucation, anu
telecommunications, that they aie willing to woik with the opposition anu take on entiencheu inteiests.
The uecisions of the Supieme Couit aie iespecteu, anu a new feueial ciiminal pioceuuie iefoim is
unueiway (albeit at vaiying uegiees of implementation in each state). The countiy is a functioning
uemociacy wheie elections aie conceineu, with competitive iaces anu an electoial system whose iesults
aie bioauly accepteu.
26
At least Su peicent of Nexicans touay, anu peihaps many moie, aie miuule-class.
uuatemala's Inteinational Commission against Impunity (Comisión lnternocionol contro lo lmpuniJoJ
en 6uotemolo oi CICIu in Spanish), a 0N-backeu bouy that has woikeu closely with the uuatemalan
goveinment, has also hau conciete iesults in auvancing iefoim anu tackling juuicial coiiuption. Noieovei,
the countiy has embaikeu on initiatives that will iestiuctuie the iole of the aimy anu iefoim the
police system.
27
As of this wiiting, foimei militaiy uictatoi Efiain Rios Nontt was on tiial foi genociue
committeu uuiing his 1982-8S iule, in a high-piofile example of the incieasing political will to buttiess
the iule of law anu holu leaueis anu the militaiy accountable foi theii actions ÷ at least those of
2S Luis Rubio, Hexico Hotters: Cbonqe in Hexico onJ lts lmpoct upon tbe 0niteJ Stotes (Washington, BC: Woouiow Wilson
Centei, 2u1S), www.wilsoncentei.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡iubio_mexico_matteis.puf; see also Stephen B. Noiiis, "Bisaggie-
gating Coiiuption: A Compaiison of Paiticipation anu Peiceptions in Latin Ameiica with a Focus on Nexico," Bulletin of lotin
Americon Reseorcb 27, no. S (2uu8): S88-4u9, http:¡¡w1.mtsu.euu¡politicalscience¡faculty¡uocuments¡Bisaggiegating.puf;
uuilleimo Peiiy, "0veiview," in lnformolity: Fxit onJ Fxclusion, eus. uuilleimo E. Peiiy, William F. Naloney, 0mai S. Aiias,
Pablo Fajnzylbei, Anuiew B. Nason, anu }aime Saaveuia-Chanuuvi (Washington, BC: Woilu Bank, 2uu7).
24 Rubio, Hexico Hotters, 1.
2S 0n Becembei 2, 2u12, his fiist full uay in office, Piesiuent Peña Nieto piesenteu the Pact foi Nexico, a sweeping uocument
pleuging iefoim on 9S inuiviuual commitments anu signeu by the leaueis of all thiee main political paities. Peihaps moie
notable than the actual content is the bioau suppoit the pact ieceiveu fiom the political leaueiship of Nexico's main paities.
Foi full text of the pact in Spanish, see 0ffice of the Piesiuent, www.piesiuencia.gob.mx¡wp-content¡uploaus¡2u12¡12¡
Pacto-Poi-N%CS%A9xico-T0B0S-los-acueiuos.puf.
26 Rubio, Hexico Hotters; see also Shannon K. 0'Neil, Two Notions lnJivisible: Hexico, tbe 0niteJ Stotes, onJ tbe RooJ AbeoJ
(New Yoik: 0xfoiu 0niveisity Piess, 2u1S): 9.
27 }ulie Lopez, "uuatemala's Ciossioaus: The Bemociatization of violence anu Seconu Chances," in 0rqonizeJ Crime in Centrol
Americo: Tbe Nortbern Trionqle, eus. Cynthia }. Ainson anu Eiic 0lson (Washington, BC: Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Cen-
tei foi Scholais, 2u11).
19
uecaues past. Anu in El Salvauoi, though political tensions anu uistiust still iun high two uecaues aftei
a negotiateu peace accoiu enueu a bloouy 12-yeai civil wai, elections aie geneially peaceful anu the
militaiy no longei uominates the political spheie.
28

Rule-of-law consiueiations implicate policymaking in geneial. The subject of migiation offeis
policymakeis impoitant oppoitunities to iuentify anu enact smait policies anu investments with the
potential to help stiengthen the iule of law in the iegion. Following aie some of these key aieas of
oppoitunity iuentifieu by the Stuuy uioup.
A. Creotìng Rule-o(-Low Iromeworks (or Mìgrotìon Monogement Throughout the Regìon
The 0niteu States faces its own ciises of goveinance with, foi example, the tiafficking of illicit uiugs anu
aims within its teiiitoiy, as well as guns to Nexico anu Cential Ameiica. Nost impoitant foi this iepoit,
cuiient 0S laws anu policies that govein migiation have faileu to pioviue a legal, safe, anu oiueily way foi
those people whose skills anu talents aie in uemanu in 0S laboi maikets to entei anu woik in the countiy.
The absence of piactical anu effective iules to govein migiation in the iegion, in combination with
the haiuening of boiueis that has leu to ieuuceu ciiculaiity, has contiibuteu to high levels of illegal
immigiation, both via illegal ciossings into the 0niteu States oi by oveistaying piopeily issueu visas.
Nillions of inuiviuuals anu theii families aie living in oveilapping foimal anu infoimal statuses as a
iesult. Stiengthening iule-of-law institutions on both siues of the 0S boiuei, while simultaneously fixing
0S migiation policies in oiuei to allow migiation to pioceeu thiough legal channels anu pioviuing
legal status foi those who aie cuiiently unauthoiizeu but nonetheless contiibuting membeis of
theii communities anu woikplaces, will seive to inculcate the iule of law in this key aiea of national,
bilateial, anu iegional activity. It shoulu also iemove some of the potential foi ciiminal oiganizations
to piofit fiom the vulneiability of migiants, many of whom must pay smuggling fees anu¡oi biibes
both to noninstitutional actois, such as ciiminal oiganizations, as well as public agents who contiol the
teiiitoiies thiough which they move. Fuitheimoie, by incieasing legal avenues foi immigiation, boiuei
agents will have gieatei leeway to focus on keeping uangeious ciiminals anu othei nefaiious actois fiom
ciossing.
B. Reducìng Corruptìon by Buìldìng Copocìty ond Conµdence ìn Low £n(orcement
lnstìtutìons
The Stuuy uioup notes that some law enfoicement anu immigiation agents thioughout the iegion have
been complicit in coiiuption anu the abuse of migiants. Bigh levels of uiscietion in the application of
immigiation laws,
29
salaiies insufficient to iesist enticements fiom ciiminal oiganizations, anu low
levels of euucation anu tiaining have cieateu conuitions foi coiiuption anu biibeiy among authoiities
at vaiious levels.
Su
In Nexico, the National Nigiation Institute (Instituto Nacional ue Nigiacion, oi INN)
has come unuei ieneweu sciutiny foi abuse, extoition, anu violence by INN agents anu officials against
migiants tiansiting Nexico ÷ cases which aie wiuely peiceiveu to ieflect systemic challenges iathei than
the actions of a few coiiupt inuiviuuals.
S1
In the 0niteu States, 12S Customs anu Boiuei Patiol agents
weie convicteu of coiiuption-ielateu chaiges, incluuing smuggling of aliens anu uiugs, between fiscal
28 Bouglas Faiah, "0iganizeu Ciime in El Salvauoi: Its Bomegiown anu Tiansnational Bimensions," in 0rqonizeJ Crime in
Centrol Americo, eus. Cynthia }. Ainson anu Eiic 0lson (Washington, BC: Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais,
2u11); see also Claiie Ribanuo Seelke, Fl SolvoJor: Politicol onJ Fconomic ConJitions onJ 0.S. Relotions (Washington, BC:
Congiessional Reseaich Seivice, 2u12), www.fas.oig¡sgp¡cis¡iow¡RS216SS.puf.
29 Alba anu Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo.
Su Ralph Espach anu Baniel Baeiing, BorJer lnsecurity in Centrol Americo´s Nortbern Trionqle (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional
Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-NoitheinTiiangle.puf.
S1 Alba anu Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo.
20
yeais (FY) 2uuS anu 2u12.
S2

Piofessionalization of law enfoicement agents, incluuing those iesponsible foi migiation contiols, can
play an impoitant iole in stiengthening the iule of law. Thoiough vetting piocesses, impioveu tiaining,
bettei pay foi law enfoicement officeis, anu sufficient iesouices to investigate systemic coiiuption of all
foims anu institutionalize faii inteinal anu auministiative pioceuuies to piosecute anu punish coiiupt
officials anu agents, aie ciitical in this iegaiu.
Nany of these neeus aie ieflecteu in 0S secuiity assistance to the iegion, embouieu in the Néiiua
Initiative anu the Cential Ameiican Regional Secuiity Initiative (CARSI). The Néiiua Initiative is an
assistance package passeu by the 0S Congiess in 2uu8 to stiengthen secuiity in Nexico anu Cential
Ameiica. In its fiist two yeais, the initiative focuseu on logistical anu mateiial suppoit, especially heavy
equipment; since then, funuing has shifteu to police anu juuicial tiaining, softwaie, anu constiuction of
new couithouses.
Since 2uu9, when Congiess cieateu CARSI, Néiiua has pioviueu aiu exclusively to Nexico; Néiiua,
howevei, is only a small pait of the oveiall secuiity coopeiation ielationship between the 0niteu States
anu Nexico. 0ften calleu "Beyonu Néiiua," the foui-pait fiamewoik encapsulating the two countiies'
collaboiation incluues effoits to uisiupt money anu weapons supply netwoiks foi oiganizeu-ciime
gioups; stiengthen the iule of law; cieate a "21
st
-centuiy boiuei" that facilitates fastei legal flows of
people anu goous while using "iisk-segiegation" management techniques to enhance secuiity; anu builu
"iesilient," oiganizeu-ciime iesistant communities.
SS
ln tbe obsence of o functioninq reqionol security fromework, some of tbe
bosic pbysicol onJ operotionol requirements neeJeJ to beqin builJinq
trust Jo not exist.
CARSI's piimaiy objectives have also evolveu ovei time, anu aie now moie balanceu between law
enfoicement anu pievention anu uevelopment piogiams. They focus on citizen safety; uisiupting the
movement of ciiminals anu contiabanu; ueveloping stiong, capable, anu accountable goveinments;
establishing an effective state piesence, secuiity, anu seivice in at-iisk communities; anu stiengthening
iegional cooiuination on secuiity anu iule-of-law issues. Foi FY 2u1S, the 0S goveinment iequesteu
$1u7.S million foi CARSI anu $26S.S million foi Neiiua.
S4
This iepiesents a ueciease in iequesteu funuing
fiom pievious yeais, in laige pait because Nexico has taken iesponsibility foi some of the antinaicotics
piogiams unuei Néiiua.
SS
The ieallocation of iesouices also ieflects a shift in the 0S secuiity policy uiiection in Nexico anu Cential
Ameiica towaiu auuiessing moie compiehensively the ciisis of citizen secuiity oveiall anu focusing
on builuing institutional capacity to stiengthen the iule of law. This is a veiy piomising shift. Bowevei,
capacity-builuing alone will not solve the pioblem. 0fficials anu institutions acioss the iegion must
also establish mutual tiust anu builu gieatei confiuence in oiuei to collaboiate effectively on migiation
(auuiesseu moie fully in the next section), as well as in othei aieas.
S2 0S uoveinment Accountability 0ffice (uA0), BorJer Security: AJJitionol Actions NeeJeJ to Strenqtben CBP Ffforts to Hitiqote
Risk of Fmployee Corruption onJ HisconJuct, uA0-1S-S9 (Washington, BC: uA0, 2u12), www.gao.gov¡assets¡66u¡6SuSuS.puf.
SS Anuiew Selee, Cynthia }. Ainson, anu Eiic 0lson, Crime onJ violence in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo: An Fvolvinq but lncom-
plete 0S Policy Response (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡
RNSu-EvolvingPolicyResponse.puf.
S4 Ibiu.
SS White Bouse 0ffice of National Biug Contiol Policy, "The National Biug Contiol Buuget: FY 2u1S Funuing Bighlights," Febiu-
aiy 2u12, www.whitehouse.gov¡onucp¡the-national-uiug-contiol-buuget-fy-2u1S-funuing-highlights.
21
In the absence of a functioning iegional secuiity fiamewoik, some of the basic physical anu opeiational
iequiiements neeueu to begin builuing tiust uo not exist. Boiuei police in Nexico anu uuatemala,
foi example, lack effective systems to shaie infoimation anu cooiuinate activities. This ueficiency is
compounueu by a lack of symmetiy between neighboiing countiies' institutional stiuctuies: a Nexican
state goveinoi has a gieat ueal of autonomy anu iesponsibility in setting policy piioiities anu allocating
iesouices to boiuei secuiity issues, but a uuatemalan uepaitmental goveinoi, who is selecteu by the
piesiuent, must woik thiough the uuatemalan Ninistiy of Befense on these issues unless he also holus a
position within the militaiy oi police chain of commanu. Cioss-boiuei collaboiation thus must follow to
inteinational piotocols anu uoes not allow foi au hoc anu local stiategy-setting anu coopeiation acioss
boiueis, which can often solve small pioblems locally anu pievent them fiom becoming politicizeu by
engaging each othei's capitals.
S6
Anothei key to builuing tiust is being sensitive to othei countiies' ciitical aieas of concein even when
they may not be natuial top uomestic policy piioiities foi the fiist countiy. In that context, the 0niteu
States has a stiategic inteiest in auuiessing the pioblems of naicotics consumption, money launueiing,
anu the uniegulateu south-bounu weapons tiafficking that funu anu aim ciiminal oiganizations, anu in
woiking moie effectively with Nexico anu the Noithein Tiiangle countiies to make heauway against the
violence.
S7

But Nexico, El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias can also woik with each othei moie actively to iesponu
to these challenges, anu within theii countiies to ieuuce the violence faceu by oiuinaiy people in theii
eveiyuay lives. Inueeu, mitigating the impact of this violence on citizens has become a piioiity in these
countiies anu must iemain so. It is an explicit goal of the Peña Nieto auministiation ÷ one of the five
main pillais of his Pact foi Nexico.
S8
In El Salvauoi, an (unofficially sanctioneu) Catholic Chuich-biokeieu
gang tiuce cut the homiciue iate in half in 2u12, anu authoiities iepoit they have gieatei contiol of theii
national teiiitoiy as a iesult.
S9
Anu the uuatemalan goveinment is also tiying to inciease citizen secuiity.
C. Promotìng o Culture o( £conomìc Growth ond Productìvìty by £ncourogìng Iormol
£conomìc Actìvìty
Wiuespieau economic infoimality both fuels anu ieflects institutional weakness. The infoimal sectoi
accounts foi Su to Su peicent of uBP in Nexico (uepenuing on how it is measuieu)
4u
anu 4S to Su
peicent in El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias.
41
Infoimal activity iepiesents a suivival stiategy foi
inuiviuuals anu businesses tiying to cope with uysfunctional, often oppiessively buieauciatic, systems.
But it also uepiives woikeis of piotections anu access to the social safety net, benefits, anu oppoitunities
foi woikfoice uevelopment; loweis the piouuctivity of fiims by uepiiving them of access to capital anu
making them moie vulneiable to extoition; anu uecieases tax ievenue foi goveinments.
42
In Nexico,
oveiiegulation of foimal enteipiises anu the stiuctuie of social piotection piogiams may be incentivizing
infoimality.
4S
Anu of couise, many immigiants fiom the iegion, lacking legal woik authoiization, opeiate
in the infoimal 0S laboi maiket.
S6 Espach anu Baeiing, BorJer lnsecurity in Centrol Americo´s Nortbern Trionqle.
S7 Selee, Ainson, anu 0lson, Crime onJ violence in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo.
S8 The pioposals fall unuei five majoi aieas of focus: iights, libeities, anu social inclusion; economic giowth, employment, anu
competition; secuiity anu justice; tianspaiency, accountability, anu combating coiiuption; anu uemociatic goveinance.
S9 Piivate meeting of RNSu membeis with high-level Salvauoian foieign ministiy officials, San Salvauoi, }uly 2u12.
4u Rubio, ln tbe lurcb between 6overnment onJ Cboos; see also }osé Biambila-Nacias anu uuiuo Cazzavillan, "Noueling the
Infoimal Economy in Nexico: A Stiuctuial Equation Appioach," Tbe }ournol of Bevelopinq Areos vol. 44 (2u1u): S4S-6S.
41 Eleanoi Sohnen, Poyinq for Crime: A Review of tbe Relotionsbips Between lnsecurity onJ Bevelopment in Hexico onJ Centrol
Americo (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-Payingfoi-
Ciime.puf.
42 Ibiu.
4S uoiuon B. Banson, 0nJerstonJinq Hexico´s Fconomic 0nJerperformonce (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy
uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-Nexico0nueipeifoimance.puf.
22
Attempts to piomote foimality will iequiie goveinments in the iegion to woik hanu-in-hanu with
actois fiom the piivate sectoi to ieuuce these peiveise incentives, as well as stieamline excessive anu
ineffective iegulatoiy systems to make it easiei foi businesses to legally hiie the woikeis they neeu. It
will also iequiie goveinments to invest in iefoims that allow citizens to tiust, foi example, that the public
euucation system can pioviue a ieliable pathway into the foimal laboi maiket foi the aveiage peison.
Such iefoims woulu contiibute to builuing a neeueu oveiall social anu economic uevelopment fiamewoik
that begins with the iecognition of citizens as the centeipiece anu the goveinment as a key factoi in
cieating the conuitions foi this uevelopment to happen.
44

lV. lnnigration PoIicies: Making the U5 lnnigration
5ysten More Responsive to Labor Market and
Econonic Needs
The 0niteu States has been the majoi iecipient of immigiation, both legal anu illegal, fiom Nexico foi
well ovei a centuiy, anu fiom Cential Ameiica since at least the eaily 198us. An estimateu 14.S million
immigiants fiom Nexico anu the Noithein Tiiangle live in the 0niteu States (11.7 million fiom Nexico,
4S

1.S million fiom El Salvauoi, 8S1,uuu fiom uuatemala, anu 491,uuu fiom Bonuuias).
46
Immigiants
fiom these foui countiies accounteu foi appioximately 7S peicent of the 11 million oi so unauthoiizeu
inuiviuuals in the 0niteu States.
47
So how the 0niteu States shapes its immigiation policies has significant
implications foi the iegion.
It is by now a tiuism in 0S immigiation uebates to ueclaie that the "system is bioken." That juugment
applies not only to uecaues of high levels of illegal immigiation; it also iefeis to many of the key
components of the legal immigiation system, which neithei meet 0S laboi maiket neeus efficiently noi
piotect the inteiests of 0S woikeis successfully. 0veiall, the piesent system fails to hainess immigiation
to piomote 0S economic giowth anu competitiveness well ÷ incluuing by implementing flexible
piovisions to allow immigiation to iesponu to the ebbs anu flows of uemanu ÷ oi to (ie)unify close
family membeis on a timely basis.
A bioau oveihaul of 0S immigiation law ÷ known as compiehensive immigiation iefoim (CIR) ÷ woulu
encompass moie effective solutions to auuiess both illegal anu legal immigiation. At this wiiting, the
political impeiatives anu policy momentum favoiing enactment of such legislation appeai piomising.
Seveial of the policy appioaches outlineu below aie of paiticulai impoitance to incluue in final legislation
if iefoim is to succeeu in managing migiation within the iegion to boost giowth anu competitiveness ovei
the longei teim.
44 Rubio, Hexico Hotters, 1u4.
4S Sieiia Stoney anu }eanne Batalova, "Nexican Immigiants in the 0niteu States," Hiqrotion lnformotion Source, Febiuaiy 2u1S,
www.migiationinfoimation.oig¡0SFocus¡uisplay.cfm.IB=9SS.
46 Sieiia Stoney anu }eanne Batalova, "Cential Ameiican Immigiants in the 0niteu States," Hiqrotion lnformotion Source, Naich
2u1S, www.migiationinfoimation.oig¡0Sfocus¡uisplay.cfm.IB=9S8.
47 NPI calculation using Boefei, Rytina, anu Bakei, Fstimotes of tbe 0noutborizeJ lmmiqront Populotion ResiJinq in tbe 0niteJ
Stotes: }onuory 2011.
0veroll, tbe present system foils to borness immiqrotion to promote 0S
economic qrowtb onJ competitiveness well.
23
A. Todoy's Reolìty
Foi much of the nation's histoiy, immigiation policy has hau thiee bioau goals: family (ie)unification
foi 0S citizens anu lawful peimanent iesiuents with close family membeis; meeting legitimate laboi
maiket neeus; anu iefuge foi those in neeu of humanitaiian piotection. The uemanu foi visas among
these immigiation stieams substantially exceeus the supply of visas authoiizeu by Congiess. As a iesult,
how Congiess allocates visas among anu within these stieams shapes futuie Ameiican economic anu
uemogiaphic conuitions.
The effects of immigiation on 0S laboi maikets anu economic giowth aie piimaiily a manifestation
of two of the stieams: family-baseu anu employment-baseu (oi laboi maiket) immigiation ÷ both
peimanent anu tempoiaiy.
Family-baseu immigiation, which has accounteu foi about two-thiius of peimanent immigiation to
the 0niteu States ovei the past uecaue, iests on the piinciple of family unity. Theie aie no numeiical
limitations on visas foi immeuiate family membeis of 0S citizens (uefineu as spouses, minoi chiluien, anu
paients) to settle in the 0niteu States. 0S citizens can also ieunify with theii auult maiiieu anu unmaiiieu
chiluien, as well as with theii siblings, but waiting times foi such visas aie lengthy. visas foi lawful
peimanent iesiuents (LPRs, oi "gieen-caiu" holueis) to ieunite with theii spouses anu minoi chiluien aie
allocateu ielatively quickly (piesently about two yeais).
48
Immigiation foi theii auult unmaiiieu chiluien
takes fai longei.
49
0S citizens face yeais-long uelays in ieuniting with moie uistant ielatives. This is because family
immigiation is also subject to numeiical ceilings anu pei-countiy limits. Thus, family membeis
fiom Nexico oi the Philippines, foi example, which aie among the top five souice countiies foi legal
immigiation to the 0niteu States, face seveie uelays in getting a gieen caiu.
Su

Employment-baseu visas foi peimanent immigiation account foi just 14 peicent of visas issueu each
yeai.
S1
These visas compiise the immigiation stieam ueuicateu to the nation's economic anu laboi maiket
inteiests anu aie thus piesumably uiiven by a calculus of economic costs anu benefits.
The immigiation system's iesponse to laboi maiket anu bioauei economic neeus was conceiveu in the
miu-196us anu upuateu most iecently in the lmmiqrotion Act of 1990. Since then, the 0S anu woilu
48 0S Bepaitment of State, Buieau of Consulai Affaiis, "visa Bulletin Foi Nay 2u1S," Numbei S6, volume IX (Washington, BC:
Bepaitment of State, 2u1S), http:¡¡tiavel.state.gov¡visa¡bulletin¡bulletin_S927.html.
49 BBS 0ffice of Immigiation Statistics, 2011 Yeorbook of lmmiqrotion Stotistics (Washington, BC: BBS, 0ffice of Immigiation
Statistics, 2u12), www.uhs.gov¡sites¡uefault¡files¡publications¡immigiation-statistics¡yeaibook¡2u11¡ois_yb_2u11.puf.
Su 0nmaiiieu auult chiluien of lawful peimanent iesiuents fiom Nexico, foi example, cuiiently face a wait of 2u yeais; foi
unmaiiieu auult chiluien of lawful peimanent iesiuents fiom the Philippines, the cuiient wait is 11 yeais. Testimony of
Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, Piesiuent, Nigiation Policy Institute, befoie the Bouse Committee on the }uuiciaiy, Subcommit-
tee on Immigiation anu Boiuei Secuiity, Tbe Seporotion of Nucleor Iomilies unJer 0.S. lmmiqrotion low, 11S
th
Cong., 1
st
sess.,
Naich 14, 2u1S, www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡PapauemetiiouTestimony-Bouse-Naich2u1S.puf.
S1 This piopoition incluues ueiivative employment-baseu gieen caius, issueu to the spouses anu chiluien of immigiant woik-
eis; only about 6 peicent of gieen caius go to laboi maiket immigiants pei se. By the most conseivative estimate, between
thiee anu foui times as many tempoiaiy ("nonimmigiant") employment-baseu visas aie issueu each yeai as employment-
baseu gieen caius, but this figuie woulu be many times highei if it weie to incluue the hunuieus of thousanus of nonim-
migiants in othei employment-ielateu visa categoiies who might seek peimanent status. 0S Bepaitment of State, Nonim-
miqront viso Stotistics, Table XvI(B): Nonimmigiant visas Issueu by Classification, Fiscal Yeais 2uu8-2u12, www.tiavel.state.
gov¡puf¡FY12AnnualRepoit-TableXvIB.puf.
Fmployment-boseJ visos for permonent immiqrotion
occount for just 14 percent of visos issueJ eocb yeor.
24
economies have unueigone uiamatic tiansfoimations anu the failuie of the 0S immigiation system to
iesponu to them has manifesteu itself in two veiy uisceinible ways: illegal immigiation in iesponse to
moie than a uecaue of iobust uemanu foi woikeis staiting in the miu-199us, anu an always vigoious but
mostly unpiouuctive uebate about visas foi the skilleu woikeis that an open anu competitive economy
iequiies.
Theie is thus a compelling neeu to bettei align the 0S employment-baseu immigiant selection system
with cuiient ÷ anu futuie ÷ economic iealities. Yet auapting the woik visa system to new anu iapiuly
changing competitive iealities has pioven politically contentious anu uifficult to achieve because
of pionounceu uiffeiences between business anu laboi ovei the size of futuie flows, wages, laboi
piotections, anu moie. In auuition, management of immigiation in ways that maximize economic benefits
also involves highly technical questions about the effects of immigiation on job oppoitunities foi some
Ameiicans, as well as on wages, laboi maikets, giowth, anu long-teim economic competitiveness.
Tbere is o compellinq neeJ to better oliqn tbe 0S employment-boseJ
immiqront selection system witb current ÷ onJ future ÷ economic reolities.
B. lntroducìng Ilexìbìlìty lnto the £conomìc lmmìgrotìon Streom
Rapiu economic iestiuctuiing, competitiveness piessuies, anu uemogiaphic change place a piemium on
a flexible, iesponsive immigiation system. The neeu foi moie nimble immigiation policies is paiticulaily
compelling in the afteimath of the global iecession, which unueiscoieu the impoitance of getting
immigiation levels anu the skills mix iight as pait of economic ienewal. Immigiation anu emigiation also
offei oppoitunities to enhance the competitiveness of Noith Ameiica as a iegion if migiation uynamics
can be moie fully tappeu anu leveiageu foi economic giowth anu iesiliency.
Lstabllsblng an |noepenoent Analytlcal Agency to Aovlse Pollcymakers on Allocatlon ot Lmployment-
8aseo vlsas
To meet these neeus, the Stuuy uioup has iefineu anu enuoiseu a pioposal fiist maue by a piioi NPI-
Wilson Centei initiative, the Inuepenuent Task Foice on Immigiation anu Ameiica's Futuie, anu latei
enuoiseu by a succession of immigiation policy task foices anu gioups conveneu by othei oiganizations.
S2

The pioposal calls foi establishing a new feueial agency to engage in ongoing ieseaich anu analyses
of changing laboi maiket anu economic conuitions wheie immigiation plays oi might play a iole, anu
auvise Congiess of changing neeus.
SS
Such expeitise anu auvice woulu assist Congiess in making peiiouic,
analytically uiiven aujustments to the numbeis anu visa categoiies in the laboi maiket immigiation
stieam ÷ intiouucing flexibility into 0S policy that is ciucially absent at piesent.
S2 The Council on Foieign Relations, Biookings Institution, anu Economic Policy Institute aie among oiganizations that have
enuoiseu the concept of a peimanent, inuepenuent bouy to auvise policymakeis on employment-baseu immigiation levels.
See, foi example, Council on Foieign Relations, lnJepenJent Tosk Iorce Report No.6S, 0S lmmiqrotion Policy (Washington, BC:
Council on Foieign Relations, 2uu9): 9S, www.cfi.oig¡immigiation¡us-immigiation-policy¡p2uuSu.
SS The Stanuing Commission on Immigiation anu Laboi Naikets was a key iecommenuation of the NPI-conveneu Inuepenuent
Task Foice on Immigiation anu Ameiica's Futuie, which issueu its final iepoit in 2uu6. See Boiis Neissnei, Beboiah W. Ney-
eis, Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, anu Nichael Fix, lmmiqrotion onJ Americo´s Iuture: A New Cbopter (Washington, BC: NPI,
2uu6), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡task_foice¡new_chaptei_summaiy.puf. See also Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, Boiis Neiss-
nei, Naic R. Rosenblum, anu Naueleine Sumption, Eornessinq tbe AJvontoqes of lmmiqrotion for o 21
st
Century Fconomy: A
StonJinq Commission on lobor Horkets, Fconomic Competitiveness, onJ lmmiqrotion (Washington, BC; NPI, 2uu9),
www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡stanuingcommission_mayu9.puf.
25
0vei time, the accumulateu knowleuge anu expeiience that woulu uevelop unuei such a system woulu
make Congiess' iesponsibilities on immigiation easiei to manage anu bettei aligneu with the countiy's
bioau economic inteiests. To that enu, cieating an expeit agency that enables the 0S goveinment to
intiouuce bauly neeueu flexibility into the employment-baseu stieam anu the 0S immigiation system
shoulu be a key element of compiehensive immigiation iefoim.
The new agency woulu be an inuepenuent, nonpaitisan executive-bianch bouy chaigeu with caiiying
out ieseaich anu analysis that uoes not piesently exist in a single setting. In contiast with pievious
one-time blue-iibbon panels such as the Besbuigh anu }oiuan Commissions,
S4
the pioposal envisions a
peimanent agency staffeu by expeit economists, uemogiapheis, statisticians, anu othei social scientists.
It woulu be leu by a uistinguisheu piofessional, moueleu aftei the way in which, foi example, the heaus
of the Bepaitment of Laboi's Buieau of Laboi Statistics oi the Bepaitment of Commeice's Census Buieau
aie selecteu. The agency woulu cieate a iesouice foi the piesiuent, Congiess, anu othei policymakeis,
offeiing timely, eviuence-baseu, anu impaitial analysis anu iecommenuations on changes to immigiation
levels anu on the composition of both tempoiaiy anu peimanent employment visas.
Beteimining immigiation levels is an inheiently political piocess anu a uecision that electeu officials anu
Congiess must ultimately make. By pioviuing high-quality uata anu iecommenuations, the woik of an
inuepenuent expeit agency that eains the tiust of policymakeis anu the geneial public is likely to iaise
the level of uiscouise anu knowleuge within Congiess anu the executive bianch, as well as among the
iange of stakeholueis engageu in immigiation policy uebates. A few othei majoi immigiant-ieceiving
countiies (among them the 0niteu Kinguom, Canaua, ueimany, anu Austialia) have investeu in builuing
up such capabilities, some thiough the cieation of similai bouies.
In the case of the 0niteu States, Congiess establisheu a somewhat similai appioach foi ueteimining
iefugee-aumissions levels with the Refuqee Act of 1980. The law calls foi setting iefugee aumissions levels
on an annual basis thiough a piocess of consultation between the executive bianch anu Congiess. The law
establishes a noimal flow numbei of Su,uuu aumissions pei yeai anu then the level of actual aumissions
is aujusteu annually against that noim, baseu on countiy-conuition analyses anu iecommenuations
pioviueu by executive-bianch agencies.
Tbe work of on inJepenJent expert oqency tbot eorns tbe trust of
policymokers onJ tbe qenerol public is likely to roise tbe level of Jiscourse
onJ knowleJqe witbin Conqress onJ tbe executive broncb.
Applieu to employment-baseu immigiation, Congiess coulu establish a statutoiy noim oi numeiical
iange foi such immigiation stieams foi an initial peiiou of time, say, thiee oi so yeais. Theieaftei, the
woik of an expeit agency woulu enable Congiess to ievisit its allocation of employment visas iegulaily
anu base laboi maiket immigiation policy on a bettei anu much moie ieliable unueistanuing of the
eviuence about evolving neeus onJ impocts than it cuiiently uoes.
S4 The Besbuigh Commission, foimally known as the Select Commission on Immigiation anu Refugee Policy, was establisheu by
Congiess in 1978; the }oiuan Commission, foimally the 0S Commission on Immigiation Refoim, was establisheu by the lm-
miqrotion Act of 1990. Both weie chaigeu with evaluating 0S immigiation policy anu making iecommenuations to Congiess
iegaiuing its implementation anu effects. See the commissions' final iepoits: 0S Select Commission on Immigiation anu
Refugee Policy, 0.S. lmmiqrotion Policy onJ tbe Notionol lnterest, Staff Repoit of the Select Commission on Immigiation anu
Refugee Policy (Washington, BC: uoveinment Piinting 0ffice, 1981); 0S Commission on Immigiation Refoim, Becominq on
Americon: lmmiqrotion onJ lmmiqront Policy (Washington, BC: uoveinment Piinting 0ffice, 1997),
www.utexas.euu¡lbj¡uscii¡becoming¡full-iepoit.puf.
26
The new agency's tasks woulu incluue the following:
Pioviue fiequent iecommenuations foi aujustments to employment-baseu immigiation levels
to Congiess anu the executive bianch, baseu on ueep analysis of economic anu sectoial uata
at national, state, iegional, anu othei levels. These iecommenuations shoulu be as fiequent as
possible, with annual fiequency being the optimal taiget. The fiequency of iecommenuations
coulu be shoitei if the agency's ieseaich inuicateu that theie was unusual tuimoil in the laboi
maiket oi specific economic sectois.
Analyze existing uata on immigiants in the 0S economy, anu manage the collection of new
longituuinal uata similai to the New Immigiant Suivey
SS
but with a laigei sample size, multiple
cohoits, anu moie of an explicit focus on laboi maiket behaviois.
Cieate anu implement a policy-focuseu ieseaich agenua on the laboi maiket ioles, integiation
tiajectoiies, anu economic impacts of oll types of immigiation, both at the national level but
most impoitantly at the state, iegional, inuustiial sectoi, anu when possible, occupational
levels using uatasets that aie typically unavailable to ieseaicheis (such as auministiative uata),
anu cieating new uatasets with moie taigeteu suiveys anu the like. The objective woulu be to
auuiess policy-ielevant issues anu tieat congiessional policy changes as "natuial expeiiments"
whose analysis woulu infoim anu shape futuie policy aujustments.
Publish ieseaich anu make uatasets publicly available, so as to fostei tianspaiency anu cieate
the founuation foi ongoing acauemic ieseaich anu bettei-infoimeu public uebate.
C. Remokìng Yìso Polìcìes to Respond to Lobor Morket Reolìtìes ond £xperìences
Touay's visa system sets iigiu conuitions foi immigiant ieciuitment. Employeis seeking to hiie a
peimanent immigiant oi a lowei-skilleu tempoiaiy woikei must uocument theii inability to hiie a 0S
woikei (that is, an inuiviuual who is legally in the 0niteu States anu authoiizeu to woik) in what amounts
to an often painstaking anu highly buieauciatizeu piocess. Employeis of high-skilleu tempoiaiy woikeis
face fewei iequiiements initially but aie then iequiieu to piepaie specific, outuateu, anu unnecessaiy
applications foi theii employee, who typically has been with the fiim foi many yeais, to iemain in the
0niteu States as a peimanent immigiant.
S6
Anu the most impoitant visa categoiies, both peimanent anu
tempoiaiy, aie subject to stiict numeiical limits.
Such constiaints have iesulteu in wait times of up to six yeais foi some employment-baseu gieen caius,
anu a sciamble to apply foi scaice, high-skill nonimmigiant visas, which often aie exhausteu within uays
of theii availability in a new fiscal yeai; in 2u1S, these visas weie gone within five uays.
S7
In combination
with the neeu foi flexibility anu an expeit auvisoiy agency outlineu above, changes must be maue in the
teims of most employment-baseu visas anu the iules that govein them.
SS The New Immigiants Suivey "is a nationally iepiesentative, multi-cohoit longituuinal stuuy of new legal immigiants anu
theii chiluien to the 0niteu States baseu on nationally iepiesentative samples of the auministiative iecoius, compileu by the
0S Immigiation anu Natuialization Seivice (INS), peitaining to immigiants newly aumitteu to peimanent iesiuence." See
Piinceton 0niveisity, "The New Immigiant Suivey," http:¡¡nis.piinceton.euu¡.
S6 These incluue, foi example, posting an announcement foi a job "vacancy" that enumeiates eveiy single qualification without
which a canuiuate might be iejecteu, in a Sunuay newspapei (no longei a commonly useu meuium foi ieciuitment foi most
high-skilleu jobs); moieovei, the employei cannot iequiie 0S applicants to possess tiaining anu¡oi expeiience beyonu what
the foieign woikei possesseu at the time of hiie.
S7 Elizabeth Aguileia, "B-1B visa cap ieacheu in one week," Son Bieqo 0nion-Tribune, Apiil S, 2u1S, www.utsanuiego.com¡
news¡2u1S¡api¡uS¡h1b-visas-immigiation-lotteiy-tech-stem¡. A nonimmigiant visa peimits the holuei to iemain in the
0niteu States foi a specifieu peiiou anu, in some cases, to woik foi a specifieu employei sponsoi. uieen caius, on the othei
hanu, confei peimanent iesiuence anu uniestiicteu employment iights. An employment-baseu gieen-caiu holuei can apply
foi citizenship aftei five yeais of peimanent iesiuence.
27
0nuei the cuiient system, gieen-caiu holueis face no time limits on theii legal iesiuency anu enjoy
the same employment piivileges anu laboi iights anu piotections as 0S citizens. But seveial times as
many foieign nationals aie aumitteu each yeai as tempoiaiy woikeis, acioss the visa categoiies skills
spectium.
S8
It is uifficult foi them to change employeis, anu they have few chances foi peimanent
iesiuence.
These iequiiements weie uesigneu to piotect the jobs, wages, anu woiking conuitions of 0S woikeis. In
piactice, howevei, iestiictions on mobility anu immigiation status make the system opaque, cumbeisome,
anu fiustiating foi the majoiity of those who engage with oi aie affecteu by it ÷ employeis, immigiants,
native woikeis, onJ 0S communities. Noieovei, the natuial auvantage that the 0niteu States has enjoyeu
as the piemiei uestination foi the woilu's most talenteu immigiants is coming unuei incieasing piessuie
as othei countiies moie effectively compete foi the best anu biightest.
Thus, the iequiiements thwait meeting the coie goals of theii piogiams. Noieovei, the effect of iecent
legislation anu iegulations has been to encouiage employeis to iely moie extensively on tempoiaiy visas,
with gieen caius accounting foi a uecieasing shaie of employment-baseu flows. Left unansweieu, these
pioblems woulu be seveiely magnifieu unuei new legislative pioposals foi a sizeable tempoiaiy woikei
piogiam anu high-skilleu visa expansions unless the scope anu chaiacteiistics of such visas aie also
ieuesigneu.
1. Creatlng a New vlsa Stream ano vlsa Portablllty Tbat Meet Tooay's Neeos ano Antlclpate
Tomorrow's Reallty
o) Provisionol visos
The Stuuy uioup pioposes cieating a new visa stieam of provisionol visos, which woulu pioviue a biiuge
between tempoiaiy anu peimanent aumissions to the 0niteu States foi employment puiposes.
S9
0nuei a
piovisional visa, most nonseasonal employment-baseu immigiants woulu initially entei the 0niteu States
on time-limiteu visas. 0f couise, ceitain immigiants, such as those uefineu as having "extiaoiuinaiy
ability" who now entei on EB-1 visas, woulu continue to be uiiectly eligible foi gieen caius as an effective
alteinative to othei countiies' point systems; anu agiicultuial anu tiuly seasonal woikeis woulu continue
to entei on tiauitional tempoiaiy visas. In auuition, tbe system sboulJ retoin tbe jlexibility to ollocote
temporory visos on tbe bosis of reqionol preferences or biloterol treoties witb senJinq countries, oi to
biing in woikeis in stiategic inuustiies oi science anu engineeiing fielus outsiue of the piovisional visa
system. Piovisional visa holueis coulu eain the iight to peimanent status aftei meeting iequiiements
uesigneu to ensuie that theii skills anu the investments they make in leaining English anu incoipoiating
effectively in 0S society will help them succeeu as 0S peimanent iesiuents.
S8 The 0niteu States aumitteu about 66,uuu woikeis in 2u12 on peimanent visas (along with 78,uuu spouses anu chiluien);
see BBS, Yeorbook of lmmiqrotion Stotistics: 2012 leqol Permonent ResiJents, Table 7 - Peisons 0btaining Legal Peimanent
Resiuent Status by Type anu Betaileu Class of Aumission: Fiscal Yeai 2u12 (Washington, BC: BBS 0ffice of Immigiation
Statistics). Piecise uata on the numbei of tempoiaiy woikeis aie not available. BBS ieleases infoimation on the numbei of
nonimmigiant visa oJmissions, but this count oveistates the numbei of woikeis because it incluues multiple ieentiies in
many cases. The State Bepaitment ieleases infoimation on the numbei of visas issueu at foieign consulates, but this count
unueistates the numbei of woikeis because some tempoiaiy woikeis uo not iequiie a visa (such as Canauians in TN visa
status) anu because many visas last foi moie than one yeai. At the same time, some inuiviuuals issueu visas abioau might
nevei come to the 0niteu States, but aie still counteu in the State Bepaitment uata. In auuition, seveial nonimmigiant visa
categoiies peimit woik but aie not piimaiily uesigneu foi it. We estimate the total annual numbei of tempoiaiy woik visas
to be about 487,uuu in 2u12; this estimate incluues all those visa categoiies foi which aumission is piimaiily gianteu foi
puipose of employment (B, L, anu 0 visas).
S9 The piovisional visa concept was fiist aiticulateu in 2uu6 by the NPI-conveneu Inuepenuent Task Foice on Immigiation anu
Ameiica's Futuie. See Neissnei, Neyeis, Papauemetiiou, anu Fix, lmmiqrotion onJ Americo´s Iuture: A New Cbopter; Beme-
tiios u. Papauemetiiou, Boiis Neissnei, Naic R. Rosenblum, anu Naueleine Sumption, Aliqninq Temporory lmmiqrotion visos
witb 0S lobor Horket NeeJs: Tbe Cose for o New System of Provisionol visos (Washington, BC: NPI, 2uu9),
www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡piovisional_visas.puf.
28
b) viso Portobility
Allowing foi viso portobility, so that a tempoiaiy foieign woikei can change employeis anu move fieely
in the 0S laboi maiket aftei a ieasonable amount of time, bieaks the basic powei asymmetiy between
employei anu woikei that a tempoiaiy woik visa accentuates. It also cieates viituous cycles in teims
of bettei wages anu woiking conuitions foi foieign woikeis onJ foi those who woik siue-by-siue with
them. Peimitting visa poitability also incieases the positive impact of all foims of employment-baseu
immigiation on the economy, anu the laboi maiket oppoitunities of all woikeis.
6u

Employei ieciuitment woulu continue to uiive immigiant-selection piocesses, ueteimining which new
woikeis come to the 0niteu States. But the unceitain piocess of gaining peimanent status woulu be moie
tianspaient anu pieuictable foi both employeis anu immigiants.
Thus, piovisional visas woulu iesemble existing "uual-intent" visas like the B-1B (which peimits
aujustment of status to legal peimanent iesiuence), but woulu apply acioss the skills spectium foi othei
than puiely seasonal woik. Such visas woulu stiengthen immigiant woikeis' laboi iights within the
0niteu States, pioviue a moie pieuictable path to peimanent iesiuence foi some, anu ieflect laboi maiket
iealities anu ieal-life expeiience in employment-baseu immigiation.
Piovisional visas anu visa poitability woulu not necessitate eithei highei oi lowei inflows of peimanent
immigiants than at piesent. Insteau, the cuiient piolifeiation of tempoiaiy visas woulu have to
be ieconcileu with the availability of gieen caius foi those who eventually seek ÷ anu can eain ÷
peimanent immigiation status. At the same time, such visas woulu facilitate ietuin migiation wheie
immigiants seek tempoiaiy ciicumstances only oi aie not a goou long-teim fit with employei neeus anu
membeiship in 0S society.
Provisionol visos onJ viso portobility represent o woy
to breok tbrouqb tbe politicol JeoJlock obout future jlows.
In these ways, piovisional visas anu visa poitability iepiesent a way to bieak thiough the political
ueaulock about futuie flows. By ieplacing most nonseasonal tempoiaiy visa categoiies with piovisional
visas, lawmakeis woulu cieate a system which bettei meets 0S economic inteiests, piotects 0S anu
foieign woikeis alike, anu builus incentives foi acceleiating immigiant integiation.
c) limitotions of tbe Current System
The 0niteu States has a uemanu-uiiven, employei-leu laboi maiket immigiation system. Nost laboi
maiket immigiation iequiies an employei sponsoi, anu an inuiviuual's ability to iemain in the 0niteu
States uepenus on continueu employment with that sponsoi oi on obtaining anothei.
6u The economic ieseaich on the impact of immigiation on native woikeis ieaches a stiong consensus that immigiation is moie
beneficial (oi in some cases less negative) foi skilleu woikeis than foi the less skilleu. Laboi mobility, howevei, can ieuiess
pait of that imbalance, making visa poitability most beneficial foi woikeis at the bottom of the skills uistiibution. See
uianmaico 0ttaviano anu uiovanni Peii, "Immigiation anu National Wages: Claiifying the Theoiy anu the Empiiics" (NBER
Woiking Papei Seiies, woiking papei no. 14188, National Buieau of Economic Reseaich |NBERj, }uly 2uu8), www.nbei.oig¡
papeis¡w14188; anu ueoige Boijas, "The Laboi Bemanu Cuive is Bownwaiu Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigia-
tion on the Laboi Naiket" (NBER Woiking Papei Seiies, woiking papei no. 97SS, NBER, }une 2uuS),
www.nbei.oig¡papeis¡w97SS.puf.
29
Foi employeis, the most timely anu efficient ioute to hiiing a foieign-boin woikei is thiough a tempoiaiy
woikei visa. It typically takes foui to seven yeais foi a petition foi peimanent iesiuence to be appioveu,
while some categoiies of tempoiaiy visas can be piocesseu in one month oi less. Employment-baseu
gieen caius aie also cappeu at 14u,uuu pei yeai, a numbei that incluues the spouses anu chiluien
of immigiant woikeis.
61
Thus, the vast majoiity of employment-baseu visas aie thiough tempoiaiy
categoiies.
62

Immigiants who wish to iemain in the 0niteu States aftei the teim of theii tempoiaiy visa anu employeis
who want to continue to employ them typically must sponsoi them foi lawful peimanent iesiuent status.
0nly some tempoiaiy woik categoiies peimit visa holueis to apply foi peimanent iesiuence while in the
0niteu States. In geneial, moie highly skilleu visas (such as B-1B, L, anu 0 visas
6S
) aie classifieu as "uual-
intent" visas, which allow foi aujustment of status, while less-skilleu visas (e.g. B-2s) uo not.
This tempoiaiy-to-peimanent tiansition is now an establisheu pait of the laboi maiket immigiation
system. Neaily 88 peicent of employment-baseu gieen caius in 2u12 went to woikeis (oi to theii
spouses oi chiluien) who aujusteu fiom within the 0niteu States fiom a tempoiaiy visa, cementing theii
attachment to the laboi maiket.
64
Thus, aujustment of status has been the ioute to peimanent iesiuence
foi the oveiwhelming majoiity of employment-baseu gieen-caiu iecipients foi the past uecaue. In this
sense, piovisional visas woulu simply foimalize anu simplify a piocess that has long been piacticeu foi
much of the 0S employment-baseu visa system.
6S

The cuiient system has impoitant failings. It impeues ieciuitment of the most talenteu foieign woikeis,
it limits economic efficiency by pieventing foieign-boin woikeis fiom changing jobs in iesponse to bettei
oppoitunities, anu it fails to ensuie that successful tempoiaiy immigiants with the best potential to
contiibute economically anu socially have the oppoitunity to shaie the full value of theii human capital by
gaining peimanent iesiuence.
66
J) Provisionol visos Hotcb lobor Horket Reolity
The natuial linkage between tempoiaiy anu peimanent immigiation has become a basic chaiacteiistic
of the immigiation system that contiibutes to the vibiancy of the economy anu to successful immigiant
integiation. Piovisional visas allow employeis to ieciuit woikeis foi long-teim jobs iecognizing that
some of these woikeis may eventually be inteiesteu in applying foi a gieen caiu. Thus, both employeis
anu woikeis aie able to make choices befoie committing to peimanent immigiation. 0f couise, not all
61 The actual total of employment-baseu gieen caius may vaiy slightly foi this numbei, as some "slots" may be ieallocateu fiom
family- to employment-baseu categoiies, oi vice veisa, if not all visas in one of the two stieams aie uistiibuteu in a given yeai.
62 Foi a moie compiehensive uiscussion of the cuiient system's visa categoiies anu theii functions, see Bemetiios u. Papa-
uemetiiou anu Stephen Yale-Loehi, Boloncinq lnterests: Retbinkinq 0S Selection of SkilleJ lmmiqronts (Washington BC:
Cainegie Enuowment foi Inteinational Peace, 1996), http:¡¡cainegieenuowment.oig¡1996¡u1¡u1¡balancing-inteiests-
iethinking-u.s.-selection-of-skilleu-immigiants¡SjSq.
6S B-1B visas aie uesignateu foi inuiviuuals woiking in a specialty occupation that iequiies a highei euucation uegiee oi its
equivalent. L visas aie uesignateu foi intiacompany tiansfeis of executives, manageis, anu employees with specializeu
knowleuge fiom an affiliateu foieign office to one of its offices in the 0niteu States, oi to help establish one. 0 visas aie avail-
able to inuiviuuals with extiaoiuinaiy ability oi achievement in the aits, sciences, euucation, business, athletic, oi entei-
tainment fielus as uemonstiateu by sustaineu national oi inteinational acclaim. B-1B visas aie cuiiently cappeu at 6S,uuu
annually, while L anu 0 visas aie uncappeu.
64 BBS, Yeorbook of lmmiqrotion Stotistics 2012, Table 6, Peisons 0btaining Legal Peimanent Resiuent Status by Type anu
Najoi Class of Aumission: Fiscal Yeais 2uuS to 2u12, www.uhs.gov¡sites¡uefault¡files¡publications¡immigiation-statistics¡
yeaibook¡2u12¡LPR¡table6.xls.
6S Bata aie limiteu, but the best if extiemely uateu souice of infoimation on gieen-caiu holueis' foimei visa status (the New
Immigiant Suivey) inuicates that in 2uuS, S7 peicent of employment piincipals aujusteu to peimanent status fiom an B-1B
visa. uuilleimina }asso, lmmiqrotion onJ STFH Tolent in tbe 0niteJ Stotes: Fstimotinq tbe Size of tbe Pre-lPR Populotion
(Piinceton, N}: Piinceton 0niveisity, 2uu8), http:¡¡paa2uu9.piinceton.euu¡papeis¡91814.
66 Those seeking to iemain in the 0niteu States by aujusting to gieen-caiu status face an auuitional uisincentive to changing
employeis, because they may be iequiieu to give up theii place in line if theii occupational classification changes while theii
application foi legal peimanent iesiuence is penuing.
30
woikeis on tempoiaiy visas will choose to stay in the 0niteu States, even if they have the option to uo so
÷ a ceitain level of attiition is common unuei any visa system ÷ anu not all will meet the ciiteiia to uo so.
Acioss the skills spectium, immigiation shoulu be tieateu as a stiategic iesouice. With the cieation of
piovisional visas, employment-baseu immigiation woulu take place thiough thiee basic immigiation
stieams: tempoiaiy, piovisional, anu peimanent. Sufficient oppoitunities anu flexibility foi legal
immigiation to meet legitimate laboi maiket neeus will ieuuce piessuies foi illegal immigiation,
pioviuing the oppoitunity foi enfoicement anu othei new policies to be effective in cieating a
moueinizeu immigiation system ÷ one that can contiibute to the well-being of the nation, immigiants
anu theii families, anu host communities.
2. Lngaglng State ano Local Actors ln tbe Selectlon ot |mmlgrants
The most successful immigiation systems meet ieceiving nations' stiategic policy piioiities by
continuously evaluating economic¡laboi maiket anu immigiant integiation outcomes anu aujusting
selection foimulae accoiuingly. They aie also always iooteu in anu iesponu to the social anu economic
context in which they exist. Though cuiient policy pioposals aie piomising, the 0S system piesently lacks
even a mouicum of flexibility in this iegaiu.
The intent of the iueas biiefly outlineu heie is to iefocus anu bettei align some immigiation visas to the
economic inteiests of states anu localities (wheie the neeus aie most stiaightfoiwaiu) ÷ anu uo so in a
systematic mannei. Nany places aiounu the woilu, incluuing Austialia, Canaua, New Zealanu, anu Spain,
have been expeiimenting with such piogiams with consiueiable success. These places shaie many of the
chaiacteiistics of seveial 0S states anu sub-state juiisuictions: ueteiioiating uemogiaphic anu population
uynamics, chaiacteiizeu both by a ueaith of young woikeis anu fast-giowing numbei of oluei peisons;
lack of economic vigoi because investois shy away fiom aieas with such uemogiaphic uistiibutions;
"unplanneu" anu sometimes unwelcome investments, typically, thiough the aiiival of plants ielying
on low-wage, low-cost, anu often unauthoiizeu, woikeis (such as poultiy anu othei meat-piocessing
activities); iemote locations; anu an often unfoigiving climate.
A successful woikei-selection system that ielies paitly on immigiation woulu fiist offei a cleai piefeience
foi 0S woikeis with the iequisite qualifications¡expeiience anu who aie willing to ielocate. Aftei a
specifieu peiiou, new immigiants whose foimal skills may not be high enough to allow them to compete
foi high-skilleu visas ÷ but who have a combination of haiu anu soft skills anu aie haiu-woiking stiiveis
÷ coulu go to places wheie they woulu have a highei piobability to succeeu while contiibuting to the
economic ievitalization of the communities they join. As a iesult, local economies woulu be able to
connect to the global economy uiiectly, with two-way flows of woikeis anu seivices becoming as ioutine
as the flow of goous.
The concept aims to encouiage states to woik closely with lowei-level juiisuictions, employeis, economic
uevelopment agencies, community-baseu oiganizations, anu othei gioups of stakeholueis ÷ but olwoys
tbrouqb tbe feJerol qovernment wbicb will mointoin its outbority on oll immiqrotion motters ÷ foi the
iight to select the foieign woikeis they neeu. Consiueiing that, with few exceptions, the cuiient system
leaves the matching of miuule- anu lowei-skilleu woikeis with employeis up to immigiant netwoiks (anu
thus fuels illegality) a system that oiganizes the piocess bettei is likely to have significant appeal.
The feueial goveinment woulu be askeu to set asiue an initially mouest numbei of visas foi a numbei
Across tbe skills spectrum,
immiqrotion sboulJ be treoteJ os o stroteqic resource.
31
of pilot piojects that woulu test the iuea, unuei the legal fiamewoik of a set of feJerol-stote immiqront-
selection portnersbip oqreements.
D. Legolìzotìon
The fate of the estimateu 11 million immigiants living in unauthoiizeu status has long been the most
contentious aspect of the 0S immigiation iefoim uebate. Bowevei, a confluence of political anu policy
factois ÷ incluuing the iesults of the 2u12 piesiuential election, in which Latino anu Asian voteis
oveiwhelmingly suppoiteu the Bemociatic nominee, anu a giowing iecognition that laige-scale
uepoitation is neithei feasible noi in the national inteiest ÷ has biought membeis of Congiess fiom both
paities to the table to uiscuss legalization as a coie element of compiehensive immigiation iefoim.
Appioaches to legalization coulu take seveial foims, ianging fiom foimulations that woulu be open to the
vast majoiity of the eligible population (excluuing those with seiious ciiminal iecoius anu veiy iecent
aiiivals), to piogiams initially coveiing only some gioups, such as young people who weie biought to
the countiy as chiluien ÷ known as BREANeis
67
÷ anu woikeis in the agiicultuial sectoi, anu giauually
expanuing fiom theie.
Theie aie two thiesholu issues in a legalization piogiam: a) whethei newly legalizeu inuiviuuals woulu
ultimately be eligible foi lawful peimanent iesiuence anu citizenship ÷ an issue that now appeais to be
settleu in favoi of full gieen-caiu status but only aftei a lengthy peiiou of time; anu b) the scope of the
piogiam, which woulu ueteimine how many unauthoiizeu immigiants aie likely to be eligible to qualify
foi legal status.
The Stuuy uioup believes an inclusive legalization piogiam (see elements below foi ciitical
chaiacteiistics) is, in the vast majoiity of cases, in the best inteiests of the inuiviuuals anu families who
have been contiibuting to the 0S economy foi many yeais, but also benefits 0S anu iegional inteiests
moie bioauly.
1. |ncluslve Lllglblllty Date
A new legalization piogiam shoulu use an eligibility uate as close to the legislation's uate of enactment as
possible. Such an appioach auuiesses a key lesson leaineu fiom the lmmiqrotion Reform onJ Control Act
of 1986 (IRCA) which limiteu eligibility to those who coulu uemonstiate having been in the countiy foi
at least five yeais. As such, IRCA left a sizeable poition of the unauthoiizeu population with no access to
legal status ÷ peipetuating illegal immigiation.
68
Because illegal immigiation fiom Nexico, the countiy
that accounts foi the majoiity of the unauthoiizeu population, has come to a viitual stanustill, it is
possible to establish an encompassing cutoff uate without the iisk of cieating an incentive to get to the
0niteu States simply to apply foi legalization, although some may tiy to uo so.
Inclusive eligibility must also iecognize that in assessing possible ciiminal behavioi as a uisqualifying
factoi, the veiy natuie of living anu woiking in the countiy without status is a violation of law. Thus, a
piogiam that is a tiue effoit to biing people out of the shauows anu make it possible foi them to "get
iight with the law" shoulu excuse most violations of immigiation law anu the misuse of social secuiity
numbeis. It shoulu also pioviue a bioau, flexible waivei policy foi a iange of othei minoi violations.
67 The Bevelopment, Relief, onJ FJucotion for Alien Hinors (BREAN) Act, intiouuceu in vaiious foims since 2uu1, seeks to pio-
viue a path to legalization foi eligible unauthoiizeu youth anu young auults. It woulu allow inuiviuuals to apply foi legal pei-
manent iesiuent status on a conuitional basis if, upon enactment of the law, they aie unuei a ceitain age (pioposals have at
uiffeient times specifieu SS oi Su yeais olu), aiiiveu in the 0niteu States befoie the age of 16, have liveu in the 0niteu States
foi at least the last five yeais, anu have obtaineu a 0S high school uiploma oi equivalent. Foi moie, see }eanne Batalova anu
Naigie NcBugh, "BREAN vs. Reality: An Analysis of Potential BREAN Act Beneficiaiies" (Insight, Nigiation Policy Institute,
}uly 2u1u), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡BREAN-Insight-}uly2u1u.puf.
68 Papauemetiiou, "The Funuamentals of Immigiation Refoim."
32
At the same time, ciiminal iecoius cannot simply be excuseu anu the legalization piogiam must have
integiity anu iigoi in its implementation. This can best be accomplisheu by iecognizing anu putting
into piactice "eaineu legalization," which is the concept unueilying touay's policy foimulation. Eaineu
legalization is funuamentally uiffeient than "amnesty," which is an act of foigiveness foi wionguoing that
uismisses it laigely without conuitions.
Eaineu legalization iecognizes that wionguoing has occuiieu anu such acknowleugment is impoitant
politically anu substantively. An eaineu legalization piogiam ÷ moie akin to a plea baigain ÷ uoes not
uismiss the wionguoing, but insteau calls foi accountability, both by those in the 0niteu States illegally
as well as by the oveiall society that has been complicit in oveilooking anu benefitting fiom some of the
ciicumstances that fostei illegal immigiation.
Foi society, the piice woulu be gianting, initially, a new foim of legal iesiuent status that woulu be moie
limiteu than full peimanent iesiuence, but woulu offei eligible iecipients woik authoiization, fieeuom to
tiavel in anu out of the countiy, anu piotection fiom uepoitation, except in cases of subsequent seiious
ciiminal convictions. Such a status woulu ultimately allow foi aujustment to full lawful peimanent
iesiuence anu to eligibility foi 0S citizenship foi those who choose to apply.
Foi the inuiviuuals, the conuitions unuei uiscussion incluue iegisteiing with the goveinment, submitting
to a ciiminal backgiounu check, paying an application fee anu fine, leaining English, anu waiting ten oi
moie yeais in a new piobationaiy legal status to be eligible to apply foi a gieen caiu. Bemonstiating
English pioficiency anu civics knowleuge aie also likely iequiiements foi aujusting to peimanent
iesiuence ÷ conuitions cuiiently iequiieu only when inuiviuuals apply foi citizenship.

The newly legalizing woulu be at the "back of the line" foi aujustment to gieen-caiu status. The ten-
yeai wait is intenueu to allow foi cuiient legal immigiation backlogs to be cleaieu. The Bepaitment of
State iepoiteu that as of Novembei 1, 2u12, of the moie than 4.4 million peisons (incluuing piincipal
applicants anu theii spouses anu chiluien) foi whom visa petitions hau been appioveu but whose cases
weie still penuing, the vast majoiity ÷ 97 peicent ÷ weie applicants foi family-baseu visas.
69
A majoiity
of these applicants came fiom just a hanuful of high-uemanu countiies, with those fiom Nexico alone
making up ovei 1.S million (Su peicent) of those waiting.
7u

2. Reglstratlon as tbe Flrst Step
The fiist step in the legalization piocess woulu be a simple iegistiation iequiiement, consisting of a
ciiminal backgiounu check anu veiification of the applicant's iuentity. This is paiticulaily impoitant
because of the sheei magnituue of hanuling a likely caseloau fai laigei than evei befoie piocesseu by
immigiation agencies in a limiteu time fiame.
A iegistiation piogiam uesigneu foi maximum paiticipation woulu not iequiie payment of a laige fine
69 Bepaitment of State, Annuol Report of lmmiqront viso Appliconts in tbe Iomily-sponsoreJ onJ Fmployment-boseJ Preferences
ReqistereJ ot tbe Notionol viso Center os of November 1, 2012 (Washington, BC: Bepaitment of State, 2u12), www.tiavel.state.
gov¡puf¡WaitingListItem.puf; see also Claiie Beigeion, "uoing to the Back of the Line: A Piimei on Lines, visa Categoiies,
anu Wait Times (Immigiation Refoim Issue Biief No. 1, NPI, Naich 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡CIRbiief-Back-
ofLine.puf.
7u Bepaitment of State, Annuol Report of lmmiqront viso Appliconts in tbe Iomily-sponsoreJ onJ Fmployment-boseJ Preferences
ReqistereJ ot tbe Notionol viso Center os of November 1, 2012.
ForneJ leqolizotion recoqnizes tbot wronqJoinq bos occurreJ onJ sucb
ocknowleJqment is importont politicolly onJ substontively.
33
oi pioof of language ability at the fiont enu. Rathei, theie shoulu be the option to meet these anu othei
iequiiements at a latei time, uuiing the couise of the ten-yeai eaineu legalization peiiou.
The ieasons foi peimitting these conuitions to be met ovei time aie both conceptual anu piagmatic.
Conceptually, meeting incieasingly uifficult iequiiements ovei time is consistent with eaining status.
Piagmatically, stiff up-fiont iequiiements will constitute baiiieis to paiticipation, especially wheie fees
anu fines aie conceineu. Pieliminaiy calculations by NPI inuicate that 62 peicent of unauthoiizeu auults
aie low-income (with householu incomes below 2uu peicent of the feueial poveity level),
71
so steep
fines woulu likely piice iegistiation anu legal status out of ieach foi many, fiustiating the bioauei goal of
legalization.
Foi iegistiation to be gianteu, veiification of applicants' iuentity will be a key issue. Countiies of oiigin,
especially Nexico anu the Cential Ameiican countiies fiom which aiounu thiee-quaiteis of all eligible
applicants aie likely to come, aie well positioneu to uelivei invaluable assistance to theii nationals in
pioviuing anu authenticating biith ceitificates, passpoits, anu othei key iuentity uocuments ciitical to the
iegistiation piocess. uoveinments in these countiies have long iecoius of expeiience in suppoiting such
activities anu can contiibute impoitantly anu ieliably to the success of a iegistiation piogiam foi theii
nationals.
Countries of oriqin ore... well positioneJ to Jeliver involuoble ossistonce
to tbeir notionols in proviJinq onJ outbenticotinq... key iJentity
Jocuments criticol to tbe reqistrotion process.
To iecap, foi a legalization piogiam to succeeu as pait of a new beginning foi effective, enfoiceable,
iational immigiation laws, the piogiam must excluue potential applicants only on the basis of a
substantial ciiminal iecoiu, eschew oneious iequiiements such as steep fines that applicants simply
cannot pay oi boiiow at the outset of the piogiam, have cleai iules that aie implementeu with
tianspaiency, anu uelivei equal anu pieuictable outcomes foi all who apply. Nost impoitant, it must
pioviue access to a gieen caiu at the enu of the piocess foi all those who meet the iequiiements.
V. New Approaches to Migration Reforn in Mexico and
CentraI Anerica: An EvoIving RoIe for Mexico
As the composition anu volume of migiation flows in the iegion have changeu, Nexico's iole in the
iegional migiation system has also evolveu fiom that of a piincipal migiant-senuing countiy to that of
a teiiitoiy thiough which migiants seeking illegal entiy into the 0niteu States pass, anu incieasingly, a
countiy in which moie anu moie immigiants settle.
Nany tens of thousanus of tiansmigiants now pass thiough Nexico annually, uestineu foi the 0niteu
States, continuing a flow that began in the 198us. This flow intensifieu uuiing the fiist uecaue of the 21
st

centuiy anu by at least one measuie, appiehensions at the 0S-Nexico boiuei, it has continueu to giow.
Appiehensions of inuiviuuals fiom countiies othei than Nexico have incieaseu fiom S9,uuu in FY 2u1u
71 In 2u1S, 2uu peicent of the feueial poveity level foi a family of foui in the 48 contiguous states anu the Bistiict of Columbia
was $47,1uu. See 0S Bepaitment of Bealth anu Buman Seivices, 0ffice of the Assistant Secietaiy foi Planning anu Evalua-
tion, "2u1S Poveity uuiuelines," http:¡¡aspe.hhs.gov¡poveity¡1Spoveity.cfm.
34
to 99,uuu in FY 2u12, the highest level since 2uu6.
72
Nost of these tiansmigiants stait out in the Noithein
Tiiangle. Bowevei, they also come fiom elsewheie in the Ameiicas; anu some (a uistinct minoiity) come
fiom Asia anu Afiica.
Nexico in the last uecaue has emeigeu as a significant uestination foi migiants; Nexican census uata
confiim that pattein.
7S
In fact, the foieign-boin shaie of Nexico's population moie than uoubleu between
2uuu anu 2u1u, to u.9 peicent, anu is now at its highest level since at least 194u.
74
Nexico is also
incieasingly ielying on uuatemalan woikeis foi its infoimal seivice sectoi anu seasonal agiicultuie.
7S
As Nexico giapples with its evolving iole in the iegion's migiation uynamics, policymakeis anu othei
stakeholueis aie beginning to auuiess questions iegaiuing the extent to which the countiy will facilitate
oi uetei tiansmigiation, the institutional challenges of migiation management, anu how to woik moie
effectively with neighbois to the noith anu, evei moie impoitantly, to the south.
Modernìzìng Mexìco's Mìgrotìon System
In 2u11, Nexico enacteu a lanumaik national migiation law that signaleu its fiist majoi iealignment
on migiation since 1974. The measuie, which took effect in late 2u12, was the piouuct of yeais of
uiscussion with expeits, incluuing some fiom abioau, anu civil society. Recognizing the countiy's giauual
tiansition anu the neeu to guaiantee the same piotections foi the foieign boin within its boiueis as it hau
histoiically auvocateu foi its own citizens abioau, the law also aimeu to cieate a fiamewoik to ieuuce the
high levels of uiscietion available to officials applying immigiation iegulations.
Naishaling the fiscal iesouices to implement the new law anu cleansing the system of gioss
inconsistencies anu inveteiate coiiuption will piove challenging. Bowevei, the law's enactment has
alieauy easeu some longstanuing fiictions between Nexico anu Cential Ameiica, while giving Nexico a
moie legitimate platfoim fiom which to auvocate foi the piopei tieatment of its citizens in the 0niteu
States.
1. Me×lco ano lts Soutbern 8oroer
Nuch of the Nexico-uuatemala boiuei is uense jungle anu swamplanu. It has only eight foimal boiuei
ciossing points anu at least 62 infoimal ciossing points, without accounting foi aiistiips anu maiitime
poits. Ciitically neeueu investment in Nexico's southein boiuei infiastiuctuie is unueiway, anu the
Peña Nieto auministiation has piomiseu to moueinize checkpoints anu cieate a boiuei patiol. Inueeu,
a mouein vehiculai ciossing anu caigo facility at the Talisman, Nexico - El Caimen, uuatemala boiuei
ciossing, ieplete with up-to-uate technology anu many 0S-tiaineu Nexican customs officials, might
appeai to obseiveis as if it was on the Nexico-0S boiuei. But even at the few official boiuei ciossing
points, infoimal flows of people anu petty tiaue of goous coexist with ÷ anu can uwaif ÷ foimal flows,
challenging the veiy concept of iegulating ciossings. The challenge foi Nexico anu uuatemala thus is
how to allow a ceitain uegiee of the "infoimality" that has been the sociocultuial anu economic lifeline
of cioss-boiuei communities to continue, while giauually encouiaging moie of it to follow iegulateu
pathways.
72 0S Boiuei Patiol, "Illegal Alien Appiehensions fiom Countiies 0thei Than Nexico By Fiscal Yeai (0ct. 1
st
thiough Sept. Su
th
),"
www.cbp.gov¡linkhanulei¡cgov¡boiuei_secuiity¡boiuei_patiol¡usbp_statistics¡usbp_fy12_stats¡appi_otm.ctt¡appi_otm.
puf.
7S Instituto Nacional ue Estauistica y ueogiafia (INEuI, National Institute of Statistics anu ueogiaphy), Principoles resultoJos
Jel Censo Je Pobloción y vivienJo 2010, 2S, www.inegi.gob.mx¡piou_seiv¡conteniuos¡espanol¡bvinegi¡piouuctos¡censos¡
poblacion¡2u1u¡piinci_iesult¡cpv2u1u_piincipales_iesultauosIv.puf.
74 INEuI, lnJicoJores seleccionoJos Je lo pobloción nociJo en otro pois resiJente en Héxico, 19S0 o 2010, accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S,
www.inegi.oig.mx¡sistemas¡sisept¡Befault.aspx.t=muemo6S&c=2S6S4&s=est.
7S Philip Naitin anu }. Euwaiu Tayloi, Ripe witb Cbonqe: Fvolvinq Iorm lobor Horkets in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ Centrol
Americo (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-Agiicultuie.puf.
35
With Cential Ameiican tiansmigiation ietuining to pieiecession levels, as eviuenceu by iecent 0S
boiuei appiehensions
76
(see above) onJ Nexican enfoicement uata,
77
Nexico faces the uilemma of how,
anu how much, to uetei these flows. Bomestically, in uesigning anu negotiating its migiation law with
civil society, the Nexican goveinment maue a commitment to piotect the iights of all those within its
boiueis, iegaiuless of oiigin.
78
While lauuable, that stance is not always in haimony eithei with Nexico's
iesponsibilities vis-à-vis the 0niteu States, foi whom boiuei contiols aie anu will continue to be a
top policy piioiity, oi with its iesponsibilities as a soveieign nation. Noieovei, the costs of seivices to
migiants anu the institutional capacity foi managing complex migiation systems which iequiie attention
acioss piactically all goveinment poitfolios ÷ fiom secuiity to euucation ÷ aie challenges that Nexico is
only beginning to appieciate.
79
Finally, the law envisions Nexico as a countiy of immigiation anu pioviues foi foui simplifieu visa
stieams: visitois, stuuents, tempoiaiy iesiuents, anu peimanent iesiuents. In iecent yeais, Nexico hau
uevelopeu a new system of tempoiaiy visitoi visas to allow inuiviuuals fiom Belize anu uuatemala into
Nexico to woik, shop, conuuct business, anu visit family. In geneial, these visas (now calleu Regional
visitoi Caius anu Boiuei Woikei visitoi Caius) peimit movement only within a uefineu geogiaphical
aiea. Bowevei, the new law uoes not, in geneial, pioviue a fiamewoik oi mechanisms foi iesponuing to
the countiy's emeiging laboi maiket neeus. Bowevei, as Nexico's economy continues to giow anu evolve,
anu it becomes a moie attiactive countiy foi immigiants fiom the immeuiate iegion anu beyonu, the
countiy will neeu to auuiess this ciitical element of mouein migiation policy ÷ stiategically managing
the piocess by which foieign woikeis aie legally aumitteu, both on a tempoiaiy anu peimanent basis, anu
aujusting it baseu on the countiy's neeus.
2. Dlsentangllng Mlgratlon ano Securlty
As uiug-tiafficking ioutes have shifteu fiom the Caiibbean to Cential Ameiica, anu Colombian caitels
have been ieplaceu by violent Nexican-baseu oiganizations, the countiies of the iegion ÷ squeezeu
as they aie between the piouuceis of cocaine in South Ameiica anu the uiug's main usei maiket in the
0niteu States ÷ aie confionting uevastating secuiity challenges. violent clashes between the caitels anu
public secuiity foices, anu among the caitels, spill ovei into eveiyuay life, impacting social anu economic
activity at all levels in many aieas of the iegion.
Although homiciue iates geneially uecieaseu in 2u12, the countiies of the Noithein Tiiangle still have
some of the highest muiuei iates in the woilu.
8u
The uiiect costs of insecuiity aie high ÷ appioximately
8.9 peicent of Nexico's annual uBP anu 7.7 peicent of annual uBP, on aveiage, in uuatemala, Bonuuias,
anu El Salvauoi at last ieckoning.
81
Beyonu spenuing on public secuiity, law enfoicement, anu ciiminal
justice, costs incluue the iepaii anu ieplacement of uamageu anu uestioyeu piopeity; meuical, legal, anu
insuiance bills; anu iansom payments. In Nexico, an estimateu 8u peicent of these costs aie boine by
inuiviuuals anu piivate companies.
82

76 0S Boiuei Patiol, "Illegal Alien Appiehensions Fiom Countiies 0thei Than Nexico By Fiscal Yeai; 0naccompanieu Chiluien
(Age u-17) Appiehensions (Fiscal Yeai 2uu8 thiough Fiscal Yeai 2u12)," www.cbp.gov¡linkhanulei¡cgov¡boiuei_secuiity¡
boiuei_patiol¡usbp_statistics¡usbp_fy12_stats¡appi_uac.ctt¡appi_uac.puf.
77 Instituto Nacional ue Nigiacion, FstoJistico Hiqrotorio: Sintesis 2012, Table S.1u, Eventos ue extianjeios uevueltos poi la
autoiiuau migiatoiia mexicana, según pais ue nacionaliuau, eneio-uiciembie 2u11-2u12, www.politicamigiatoiia.gob.mx¡
woik¡mouels¡SEu0B¡CEN¡PBF¡Estauisticas¡Sintesis_uiaficas¡Sintesis2u12.puf.
79 Ibiu.
8u Selee, Ainson, anu 0lson, Crime onJ violence in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo: An Fvolvinq but lncomplete 0S Policy Response.
81 Sohnen, Poyinq for Crime: A Review of tbe Relotionsbips Between lnsecurity onJ Bevelopment in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo.
82 Ibiu.
36
The iegion's ciiminal oiganizations contiol fai moie than uiugs: they also tiaffic aims, contiabanu, anu
counteifeit goous; extoit money fiom immigiants iesiuing in the 0niteu States by thieatening to kill theii
ielatives back home; anu manipulate anu coiiupt financial netwoiks in oiuei to launuei the iesulting
piofits. Theie is consiueiable uisagieement both about the iole of ciiminal anu uiug-tiafficking gioups
in migiation anu the extent of the phenomenon. Authoiities anu expeits agiee that theie is almost no
uiiect link between laige ciiminal gioups anu the movement of migiants in Cential Ameiica. In Nexico,
while the stoiy is moie complex, it uoes not appeai that the two activities aie integiateu, oi that theie is a
stiuctuial connection between uiug caitels anu migiant movement.
8S
Bowevei, the ioutes along which migiants anu uiugs move often oveilap, anu caitels aie typically
inclineu to chaige tolls foi the safe passage of migiants. At the same time some ciiminal oiganizations
have biancheu into kiunapping anu extoition of migiants in oiuei to gain new income stieams anu asseit
fuithei teiiitoiial contiol. Bepoitations of foieign-boin, 0S-iaiseu ciiminals fiom the 0niteu States to
the iegion have contiibuteu to the giowth of inteinational gangs now opeiating thioughout the iegion.
This uevelopment auus to the challenges tiansmigiants face. Anu while such migiants have long suffeieu
abuses by both ciiminals anu public agents on theii jouiney noithwaiu, the Nexican goveinment's
ciackuown on ciiminal oiganizations since the miu-2uuus has hau the effect of making the jouiney even
iiskiei.
84

Some estimates suggest that theie may be as many as 2u,uuu Cential Ameiicans who aie kiunappeu each
yeai in Nexico, geneiating about $4u million annually foi gangs.
8S
Whethei the estimate is ieasonable
oi not, the scale is laige anu killings, incluuing some mass killings, of migiants have become common ÷
iaising conceins about the emeigence of a "new noimal" in which weak goveinment institutions cannot
exeicise one of a goveinment's key iesponsibilities: monopoly on the use of foice.
86
In oiuei foi this new
noimal not to uevelop ioots that will make the task of iegaining contiol much haiuei, the iule of law must
pievail both within Nexico anu in the iegion.
By most accounts, citizen secuiity is affecteu fuithei by the spieauing uiug cultuie, which, togethei with
the violence associateu with uiug tiafficking, ueeply challenges seveial countiies in the iegion. The uiug-
tiafficking business is ueeply implicateu in ciiminal activities on the pait of tiaffickeis, uealeis (incluuing
oiganizeu-ciime gioups), anu consumeis who funu ciime thiough consumption. Anu since issues of
consumption aie both at the heait of the mattei anu the most uifficult to auuiess, the immeuiate policy
onus falls on thiee stiategies: eiauication at the souice; inteiuiction abioau, that is, uisiupting the uiug
tiaue befoie the piouuct ieaches one's boiueis; anu stopping uiugs at the boiuei.
87

As an anti-uiug policy, the boiuei is the last, anu not paiticulaily ieliable, line of uefense. Expeiienceu law
enfoicement leaueis, such as foimei Aiizona Attoiney ueneial Teiiy uouuaiu, have aiticulateu stiategies
that extenu beyonu eiauication anu inteiuiction to the use of tactics anu statutoiy tools that have been
successfully useu to combat oiganizeu ciime anu inteinational teiioiist opeiations. Thiee of these tools
aie paiticulaily ielevant to this uiscussion: (1) hitting the caitels that contiol the smuggling of uiugs,
guns, money, anu people in theii pocketbooks; (2) uisiupting them at the souice by uismantling the
8S Neeting of RNSu membeis with high-level Nexican officials anu inteinational secuiity expeits, Antigua, uuatemala, Naich
2u12.
8S Steven Buuley, Tronsnotionol Crime in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo: lts Fvolution onJ Role in lnternotionol Hiqrotion (Wash-
ington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-TiansnationalCiime.puf.
86 Rubio, ln tbe lurcb Between 6overnment onJ Cboos.
87 Ranuall Bansen anu Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, Securinq BorJers: Tbe lntenJeJ, 0nintenJeJ, onJ Perverse Consequences,
papei piesenteu at the NPI¡Nunk School foi ulobal Affaiis confeience on "The Politics anu Policy of Boiuei Secuiity," Naich
22-2S, 2u12.
Tbe routes olonq wbicb miqronts onJ Jruqs move often overlop.
37
vaiious pieces that suppoit the ciiminal netwoiks; anu (S) following the money to ueny the netwoiks the
means to get theii piofits back to Nexico anu beyonu.
88
Policymakeis in the iegion must unueistanu the inteisecting anu ielateu uynamics of changing migiation
flows, anu significant anu evolving secuiity challenges, inuepenuently of each othei, but tackle them in
cooiuinateu ways. uoveinments also neeu to bettei uiffeientiate among the pioblems of uiug tiafficking,
oiganizeu ciime, anu violence, anu tailoi policies anu stiategies accoiuingly. }ust as each countiy must
assess its own institutional challenges anu inuiviuually uevelop anu stiengthen its own national secuiity
fiamewoiks, the countiies of the iegion inextiicably tieu by geogiaphy as they aie, must auuiess citizen
secuiity challenges bettei by placing a piemium on a commonly shaieu vision of iegional secuiity.
0nly then can they uevelop effective systems foi shaiing infoimation oiganically anu cooiuinating anti-
violence, anti-uiug, anu iule-of-law activities.
Policymokers in tbe reqion must unJerstonJ tbe intersectinq onJ reloteJ
Jynomics of cbonqinq miqrotion jlows, onJ siqnijicont onJ evolvinq security
cbollenqes, inJepenJently of eocb otber, but tockle tbem in coorJinoteJ woys.
3. |ntrareglonal Cooperatlon: Cballenges ano Successes
While many migiation management activities aie necessaiily the iesponsibility of soveieign goveinments
anu must be iecognizeu as such, theie aie consiueiable avenues of oppoitunity foi iegional coopeiation.
Although a ciitical piece, secuiity issues must not be the piincipal focus of iegional ielations. It is
impoitant that each of the countiies in the iegion assess anu iethink its iole in auuiessing the challenges
anu oppoitunities poseu by migiation with the goal of cieating the conuitions in which migiation can
be a souice of bettei oppoitunities foi the iegion anu its citizens. Coopeiation anu collaboiation, baseu
on builuing tiust anu puisuing shaieu goals thiough piactical, on-the-giounu woiking ielationships, aie
ciitical to ieaching the goals of gieatei economic giowth anu social uevelopment that aie at the heait of
well-functioning, inclusive, anu stable uemociatic societies. The migiation ielationships in the iegion thus
neeu to evolve to the point of enabling bettei binational anu iegional collaboiation, just as each countiy
must tackle its inteinal challenges.
Coopeiation on some migiation issues is alieauy occuiiing with consiueiable success:
The FBI tiansmits names anu othei peitinent infoimation iegaiuing ciiminal uepoitees to
intelligence anu public secuiity agencies in the iegion.
The 0S militaiy's Noithein Commanu (N0RTBC0N) has helpeu Nexican law enfoicement in
opeiational planning anu intelligence shaiing; N0RTBC0N also paiticipates in an inteiagency
boiuei secuiity unit focusing on Nexico's southein boiuei; anu in Becembei 2u12 it became
home to a Special 0peiations Commanu Centei (S0CN0RTB) taskeu with helping Nexico
set up its new National Intelligence Centei anu tiaining elite Nexican anti-caitel commanuo
foices.
89
(The Commanu iepoits that it incoipoiates human-iights piinciples into all its
coopeiation activities.)
88 Teiiy uouuaiu, Eow to Iix o Broken BorJer: A Tbree Port Series (Washington, BC: Immigiation Policy Centei, 2u11¡2u12),
www.immigiationpolicy.oig¡peispectives¡how-fix-bioken-boiuei-thiee-pait-seiies; see also Bansen anu Papauemetiiou,
Securinq BorJers: Tbe lntenJeJ, 0nintenJeJ onJ Perverse Consequences.
89 Associateu Piess, "0S Commanuos Boost Numbeis to Tiain Nexican Foices," }anuaiy 17, 2u1S,
http:¡¡bigstoiy.ap.oig¡aiticle¡us-commanuos-boost-numbeis-tiain-mexican-foices.
38
The 0S Bepaitment of Bomelanu Secuiity (BBS) is woiking with Cential Ameiican inteiioi
ministiies on exchanging infoimation about people at iisk foi human tiafficking, ueveloping a
iegional appioach to the issue.
0nuei the Neiiua Initiative anu CARSI, as uiscusseu eailiei, the 0niteu States has pioviueu
uiiect assistance to combat ciime, with an incieasing focus on citizen secuiity.
The uuatemalan goveinment anu the 0S State Bepaitment aie taking a collaboiative appioach
to auuiess the incieasing migiation of unaccompanieu minois, an initiative in which they hope
to eventually involve Nexico anu peihaps othei neighboiing countiies.
Bespite these auvances, 0S anu Nexican officials have sometimes chaiacteiizeu the migiation
ielationship in iathei uiffeient teims. 0S officials uesciibe enfoicement coopeiation with Nexico as moie
wiue-ianging anu effective than it has evei been. They cite inteiopeiable, cioss-boiuei communications
with Nexico to suppoit law enfoicement cooiuination anu joint public-safety iesponses in combating
smuggling anu othei cioss-boiuei anu inteinational ciiminal enteipiises. The Boiuei Patiol's stiategic
plan foi 2u12-16 contains a notable new theme ÷ a heavy emphasis on paitneiships, especially with
neighboiing nations ÷ that woulu have been "unthinkable" until iecently.
9u

Nexican officials, foi theii pait, iepoit that uialogue anu coopeiation with 0S Immigiation anu Customs
Enfoicement (ICE) can be uifficult. Piactical issues suiiounuing 0S ietuin of inuiviuuals with ciiminal
iecoius to theii home countiies have been a longstanuing souice of tension. Legislation such as the Secure
Ience Act, which manuateu the constiuction of hunuieus of miles of fencing at the 0S-Nexico boiuei,
is peiceiveu within the iegion as moving backwaius on migiation management.
91
Law enfoicement
coopeiation with Cential Ameiica is expeiienceu in the iegion as a 0S concein with inteinational
secuiity thieats alone, to the exclusion of stiengthening state capacity moie bioauly, suppoiting still-new
uemociacies oi social uevelopment to ieuuce ueep inequality, anu neglecting maiginalizeu gioups anu
geogiaphic aieas.
Such glass half-empty, half-full viewpoints aie a ieflection of the asymmetiical natuie of bilateial anu
iegional ielationships anu of the inheient uifficulties of cooiuination anu coopeiation in an aiea wheie
the oveiall policy fiamewoik within which officials must function has not been iationalizeu to align with
countiies' economic anu foieign policy inteiests.
Nost iecently, as net new illegal migiation fiom Nexico has waneu anu the election of Piesiuent Peña
Nieto has leu to a new emphasis on citizen secuiity anu uiffeient stiategies foi combating ciiminal
oiganizations fiom those of the piioi auministiation, Nexican officials uesciibe tiust anu joint effoits as
steauily impioving anu expanuing. Bowevei, theie is a neeu foi a biggei fiamewoik oi consensus aiounu
shaieu goals with Nexico anu in the iegion that govein how the pieces fit togethei. Without it, 0S-Nexico
anu iegional coopeiation on migiation is likely to continue as mostly au hoc sets of piojects that lack
bioauei stiategic cohesion oi meaning.
Shoulu 0S immigiation iefoim be successful, the Stuuy uioup notes that it woulu open a vital oppoitunity
foi bilateial uiscussions anu collaboiation ÷ with the goal of avoiuing uisoiuei, coiiuption, anu illegality
in the migiation piocess ÷ with iegaiu to new 0S tempoiaiy woikei piogiams. The Nexican goveinment
anu othei senuing countiies woulu in any event be askeu to seive an impoitant iole in iuentifying anu
pioviuing pieuepaituie iegistiation, oiientation, anu tiaining foi tempoiaiy woikeis. Elements of the
Nexico-Canaua agieement on seasonal agiicultuial woikeis, foi example, coulu be seen as a mouel along
which these conveisations coulu evolve.
9u 0S Customs anu Boiuei Piotection (CBP) BorJer Potrol 2012-2016 BorJer Potrol Stroteqic Plon (Washington, BC: CBP, 2u12):
S, www.cbp.gov¡xp¡cgov¡boiuei_secuiity¡boiuei_patiol¡bp_stiat_plan¡; Neissnei, Keiwin, Chishti, anu Beigeion,
lmmiqrotion Fnforcement in tbe 0niteJ Stotes: Tbe Rise of o IormiJoble Hocbinery: 26.
91 Neeting of RNSu membeis with high-level Nexican migiation officials, Antigua, uuatemala, Naich 2u12.
39
Beyonu the 0S-Nexico ielationship, Nexican-Cential Ameiican coopeiation on migiation is an
incieasingly impoitant uimension. It is piomising that Nexico's new migiation law was uiafteu with
input fiom Cential Ameiican counteipaits, who geneially hail it as an impoitant step foiwaiu. Nexico
anu the Cential Ameiican countiies have agieeu to piocesses that aie moving towaiu oiueily anu secuie
iepatiiation, anu Nexico woiks with these countiies' consulates to pioviue infoimation to migiants
in Nexico about theii iights. Auvances aie also taking place bilateially. The Nexican goveinment is
collaboiating with uuatemala's immigiation agency on an integiateu softwaie system to iecoiu entiies
anu exits thiough official uuatemalan poits of entiy. Noieovei, uuatemalans ciossing fiom the countiy's
boiuei iegion into Nexico thiough iegulai poits of entiy aie issueu biometiic iuentification caius that
peimit ceitain activities. These may incluue woik within a piesciibeu aiea if they have a job offei anu¡oi
the ability to stay in Nexico foi shoit peiious of time. This lattei foim of aumission is veiy similai to the
boiuei ciossing caius the 0niteu States has been issuing foi many uecaues to Nexicans anu Canauians foi
tiavel within the boiuei states.
Bilateial coopeiation between Nexico anu El Salvauoi is also piogiessing. Salvauoian officials have
iepoiteu successful infoimation exchanges with the Nexican goveinment (incluuing shaiing access to
tiavelei uatabases), noting that sepaiate hanuling of the issues of migiation anu secuiity anu oiganizeu
ciime has been ciitical to this success.
92

Fuitheimoie, El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias have pooleu iesouices to expanu theii consulai
netwoiks in Nexico, opening joint offices to seive theii citizens. Such initiatives must become pait of a
bioauei national anu iegion-wiue coopeiation that builus a founuation foi systemic changes that shaie
infoimation on migiants anu veiify theii iuentities, help all goveinments in the iegion bettei unueistanu
anu measuie cioss-boiuei flows, anu give authoiities the tools to make ciossings safe anu moie oiueily.
Shaiing infoimation on uepoitees, in paiticulai, can help goveinments appiopiiately auuiess inuiviuual
anu community neeus, both in the case of ietuining migiants who may neeu ie-integiation assistance anu
in the case of ciiminal uepoitees.
Intia-Cential Ameiican coopeiation also continues to evolve, if slowly anu haphazaiuly. 0nuei the Cential
Ameiica-4 (CA-4) Agieement, nationals of El Salvauoi, uuatemala, Bonuuias, anu Nicaiagua enjoy fiee
movement amongst these foui countiies without a passpoit,
9S
though the agieement uoes not giant woik
authoiization anu CA-4 nationals woiking without such authoiization can be uepoiteu. (El Salvauoi alone
allows foi the entiy of seasonal agiicultuial woikeis fiom othei Cential Ameiican countiies.
94
) Between
them, howevei, these countiies have thousanus of miles of uncontiolleu boiueis anu hunuieus of
92 Piivate meetings of RNSu membeis with high-level Salvauoian foieign ministiy anu secuiity officials, San Salvauoi, }uly
2u12.
9S As pait of the Cential Ameiican countiies' effoits to fuithei iegional integiation unuei the Cential Ameiican Integiation
System (SICA, in Spanish), in 2uu2 anu 2uuS these foui countiies iatifieu the agieement gianting intiaiegional mobility foi
a maximum of six months, allowing theii nationals to move thiough the teiiitoiies of the othei thiee countiies with only
an iuentification uocument; foi a moie uetaileu explanation, see Alba anu Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqe-
ment; Acto Je AcuerJos Corto Jel CA-4 |Ninutes of the Chaitei Agieements of the CA-4j, signeu by the vice ministeis of the
foui countiies at the SICA ueneial Secietaiiat, San Salvauoi, El Salvauoi, Nay 11, 2uuu, baseu on a pievious agieement of
the piesiuents in Apiil 1998; anu AcuerJo Reqionol Je ProceJimientos Hiqrotorios CA 4 poro lo Fxtensión Je lo viso 0nico
Centroomericono: Alconces Jel TrotoJo Horco y lo HoviliJoJ Je Personos en lo Reqión |Regional Agieement on CA-4 Nigiation
Pioceuuies foi Extenuing the Single Cential Ameiican visa: Reaches of the Fiamewoik Tieaty anu the Nobility of Peisons in
the Regionj, Tegucigalpa, }uly 2uuS.
94 Alba anu Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement.
BeyonJ tbe 0S-Hexico relotionsbip, Hexicon-Centrol Americon
cooperotion on miqrotion is on increosinqly importont Jimension.
40
unofficial ciossings.
9S
Though such open boiueis facilitate some aspects of iegional integiation, incluuing
commeicial tiaue, they have not necessaiily leu to foimal laboi maiket integiation. They uo, howevei,
facilitate the movement of illegal uiugs anu aims thiough the iegion by Nexican-baseu tiafficking caitels
anu Cential Ameiican-baseu tianspoiteis.
The Stuuy uioup iecognizes that boiuei contiols alone cannot uelivei the policy outcomes that aie
foiemost in most citizens' minus, namely pieventing all unwanteu goous anu people fiom enteiing theii
countiy. No boiuei in peacetime can meet this stanuaiu. To bettei contiol the illegal entiy of both goous
anu people, the iesponse must be as multifaceteu anu auaptable as the activity it seeks to contiol. An
example fiom the human mobility aspect of the issue uemonstiates the point well. Immigiation iules
must be able to aujust the numbei of woik visas with the economic cycle, anu investments of enfoicement
iesouices at the boiuei, in the countiy's inteiioi, anu at the woikplace must always ieinfoice each othei.
Bowevei, a tiuly compiehensive appioach must ieuuce the haims that tiafficking anu oiganizeu ciime
cause, in pait by uisiupting the maikets that suppoit anu thiive upon illegality. This incluues taigeting
both the facilitatois anu clients of illegality, anu weakening the smuggling caitels' business mouel by
uisiupting theii ability to uelivei a "piouuct" anu collect a fee by incieasing theii iisks anu ieuucing
piofits.
96

The ieach of national goveinments is often limiteu when it comes to boiuei iegions. Anu inueeu, showing
flexibility that uefeis, when appiopiiate, to uecisions anu solutions that local communities uevise is
a soliu piinciple to stanu on foi many issues. Regaiuing boiueis, howevei, cential goveinments must
builu anu maintain boiueis that aie "haiu" when it comes to things that affect the secuiity inteiests of
each countiy onJ tbe wiJer reqion, anu peimeable enough to allow the uisciete tiaue anu associateu
movements of people who live along boiueis in Cential Ameiica anu southein Nexico so that they can
continue to be the economic anu sociocultuial conuuits they have always been foi theii communities.
To bettei manage these complex inteiactions anu theii untowaiu effects, Nexico anu Cential Ameiican
goveinments shoulu iethink anu iecalibiate theii ielationship with theii own boiuei states anu boiuei
communities ÷ a combineu goveinance anu uevelopment stiategy that Nexico has useu to goou
auvantage with its own southein boiuei state, Chiapas. A key element of this stiategy must focus on
impioving public secuiity in boiuei communities anu iegions, anu involving local goveinments moie
oiganically in secuiity-ielateu policymaking anu implementation.
97

Theie is no iegional bouy touay that is effectively auuiessing eithei migiation oi secuiity issues. While
the Cential Ameiican Integiation System (SICA)
98
offeis a foium foi collaboiation, it is piimaiily an
aggiegatoi anu uisseminatoi of infoimation, iathei than an opeiational oi policy uevelopment actoi.
Asymmetiies between goveinment institutions anu stiuctuies abounu. Lack of tiust, boiuei uisputes,
9S Espach anu Baeiing, BorJer lnsecurity in Centrol Americo´s Nortbern Trionqle.
96 Bansen anu Papauemetiiou, Securinq BorJers: Tbe lntenJeJ, 0nintenJeJ, onJ Perverse Consequences; see also Biian uiant,
Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou, anu Natalia Banulescu-Boguan, Bisruptinq tbe Horket for llleqol Hiqrotion: A Cbollenqe for
6overnment onJ Society, papei piesenteu at the Tiansatlantic Council on Nigiation meeting on "Cuibing the Influence of 'Bau
Actois' in Inteinational Nigiation," Nay Su-}une 1, 2u12.
97 Espach anu Baeiing, BorJer lnsecurity in Centrol Americo´s Nortbern Trionqle.
98 SICA, the chief iegional multilateial oiganization, was cieateu by Belize, Bonuuias, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaiagua, El Sal-
vauoi, anu uuatemala in 1991 as the institutional fiamewoik foi the political, social, anu economic integiation of Cential
Ameiica.
To better control tbe illeqol entry of botb qooJs onJ people, tbe response
must be os multifoceteJ onJ oJoptoble os tbe octivity it seeks to control.
41
tense civil-militaiy ielationships, anu very scorce resources compounu the pioblem.
The situation calls foi bolu collaboiative measuies. The Stuuy uioup, howevei, cautions against the
conventional iesponse of convening a new iegional bouy to auuiess these ueeply iooteu pioblems. Such
an initiative woulu almost ceitainly be unueifunueu, weak, anu of limiteu value in the absence of a cleai
stiategic focus anu manuate. Coopeiation is meaningless without an agieeu-upon stiategy, oi, at least, a
common unueistanuing of the pioblem anu agieement on the objectives.
Noi woulu iegional coopeiation alone be sufficient. Public auministiation in the Noithein Tiiangle
is, on the whole, weak, chaiacteiizeu by au hoc uecision-making, anu with an unueiuevelopeu policy
infiastiuctuie.
99
Nanagement of migiation anu boiueis in these countiies is no uiffeient. The iesponsible
agencies lack ciitical fiscal, technological, anu human iesouices, anu vaguely wiitten legislation means
theie is significant ioom foi goveinment uiscietion. This, in tuin, cieates the conuitions foi coiiuption,
abuse, anu the iiiegulai application of laws.
1uu
The Stuuy uioup enuoises actions anu a commitment to
national institutional iefoims, as uiscusseu eailiei in this iepoit, as the best answei to suimounting the
baiiieis to effective intiaiegional migiation management effoits.
Vl. RegionaI Migration and Hunan CapitaI: A
Longer-Tern RegionaI Vision for Hunan-CapitaI
DeveIopnent
Nigiation has often uominateu ielations between the 0niteu States, Nexico, anu much of Cential Ameiica
anu is likely to continue to play a piominent iole in the yeais aheau. But, as uiscusseu eailiei, the
unueilying assumptions about the uiiveis of iegional migiation aie changing, if in uiffeient ways anu at
uiffeient iates. Two of these uiiveis, uemogiaphy anu miuule-class-fueleu economic giowth, aie at the
heait of these changes. At the same time, the iegion's economies aie becoming evei moie inteiuepenuent,
once moie, if unevenly so.
To make the peihaps all too obvious point, Nexico is well aheau of the othei countiies in the iegion in a
numbei of ciucial economic anu social inuicatois. These incluue steauy uBP giowth since 2uu9,
1u1
veiy
substantial incieases in uBP pei capita,
1u2
a tiipling of Nexican stuuents in highei euucation ovei the
last thiee uecaues,
1uS
anu a laige anu giowing miuule class estimateu vaiiously at Su to 6u peicent of the
population baseu on uiffeient measuies.
1u4
Noieovei, Nexico's housing cieuit maiket has been booming
foi the last uecaue oi so,
1uS
anu a commitment by successive goveinments to investments in social
uevelopment anu in builuing Nexico's social safety net means that many of the factois that hau piopelleu
99 Bugo Beteta, Centrol Americon Bevelopment: Two BecoJes of Proqress onJ Cbollenqes for tbe Iuture (Washington, BC: NPI,
Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-CentAmBevelopment.puf.
1uu Alba anu Castillo, New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement.
1u1 Woilu Bank, "uBP giowth (annual %)," accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S, http:¡¡uata.woilubank.oig¡inuicatoi¡NY.uBP.NKTP.KB.Zu.
1u2 Pei capita uBP in Nexico iose fiom 0S$7,8S2 in 2uu9 to $1u,u47 in 2u11; see Woilu Bank, "uBP pei capita (cuiient 0S$),"
accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S, http:¡¡uata.woilubank.oig¡inuicatoi¡NY.uBP.PCAP.CB.
1uS 0niteu Nations Euucational, Scientific, anu Cultuial 0iganization (0NESC0) Institute foi Statistics, Bata Centie, "Nexico: En-
iollment in total teitiaiy, public anu piivate, full anu pait-time; yeais 198u anu 2u1u," accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S, http:¡¡stats.
uis.unesco.oig¡unesco¡Tableviewei¡uocument.aspx.RepoitIu=1S6&IF_Language=eng&BR_Topic=u.
1u4 Nauiicio Cáiuenas, Camila Benao, anu Bomi Khaias, lotin Americo´s 6lobol HiJJle Closs (Washington, BC: Biookings Institu-
tion, 2u11): 6, 18, www.biookings.euu¡ieseaich¡papeis¡2u11¡u4¡27-global-miuule-class-caiuenas-khaias.
1uS Luisa Zanfoilin anu Naico Espinosa, "Bousing Finance anu Noitgage-Backeu Secuiities in Nexico" (INF Woiking Papei
EP¡u8¡1uS, Inteinational Nonetaiy Funu, Apiil 2uu8), www.imf.oig¡exteinal¡pubs¡ft¡wp¡2uu8¡wpu81uS.puf; Naico A.
Lopez-Silva, Raúl Abieu-Lastia, Albeito Saiacho-Naitinez, anu Agustin Paulin-Butmachei, "Bousing Finance in Nexico: Cui-
ient State anu Futuie Sustainability" (Technical Notes No. IBB-TN-287, Bepaitment of Reseaich anu Chief Economist, Intei-
Ameiican Bevelopment Bank, Novembei 2u11), http:¡¡iubuocs.iaub.oig¡wsuocs¡getuocument.aspx.uocnum=S6SS8S94.
42
Nexicans to leave Nexico have been subsiuing. A iecent uallup opinion poll makes the point most uiiectly:
only 11 peicent of Nexicans iepoiteu that they woulu leave if given the oppoitunity ÷ about half as many
as in 2uu7 anu about the same piopoition of 0S iesiuents who woulu leave the 0niteu States if given the
oppoitunity.
1u6
The stoiy, howevei, neithei staits noi stops heie. 0nueigiiuing much of the positive economic uata anu
the coie of Nexico's newfounu economic stanuing is the Noith Ameiican Fiee Tiaue Agieement (NAFTA),
which has hit its stiiue in a veiy stiong way. Bilateial Nexico-0S tiaue in goous anu seivices now stanus
at almost $1.S billion pei uay,
1u7
making Nexico the 0niteu States' thiiu-laigest tiauing paitnei aftei
Canaua anu China.
1u8
Noie to the point, neaily 44 peicent of total bilateial tiaue in goous ($217 billion out
of almost $Suu billion) is 0S exports to Nexico, an amount gieatei than the combineu 0S expoits to }apan
anu China (about $184 billion).
1u9
These expoits suppoit as many as 6 million 0S jobs.
11u
The economic
integiation between Nexico anu the 0niteu States goes even ueepei. The 0S content of Nexican expoits
to the 0niteu States is about 4u peicent (as compaieu to 2S peicent foi Canaua);
111
the 0niteu States has
an estimateu $11.S billion auvantage in tiaue in seivices;
112
anu an estimateu 6.9 million people boin in
Nexico woik in the 0niteu States, making staik the uegiee of laboi maiket inteiuepenuence between the
two countiies.
11S
Noieovei, the new Nexican auministiation has hau an auspicious beginning in having peisuaueu the
othei two majoi political paities to sign the Pact foi Nexico, anu enabling legislation anu implementation
of stiuctuial iefoims in thiee ciitical aieas: laboi, euucation, anu telecommunications. Inueeu, fiom
economic integiation anu inteiuepenuence to goveinance iefoims anu piogiess in social uevelopment,
touay's Nexico beais little iesemblance to yesteiuay's ÷ anu tomoiiow's Nexico is poiseu to be an even
moie impoitant, inueeu ciucial, 0S economic paitnei.
But while Nexico's piogiess has been in many ways iemaikable, as uiscusseu eailiei, the iest of the
countiies of inteiest to the Stuuy uioup have also been making piogiess. The political anu policy
oppoitunities thus lie in hainessing these shifting foices in a way that encouiages bioau-baseu, inclusive
giowth anu maximizes economic competitiveness in the iegion. To succeeu in that quest iequiies a
sustaineu focus on auuiessing issues of human-capital foimation anu mobility. In that iegaiu, anu in
1u6 ueivei Toiies anu Anuiew Bugan, "Besiie to Leave Same in 0.S. anu Nexico," uallup Woilu, Febiuaiy 2S, 2u1S,
www.gallup.com¡poll¡16u694¡uesiie-leave-mexico.aspx.
1u7 0S Bepaitment of Commeice, Buieau of Economic Analysis (BEA), "Table 12 0.S. Inteinational Tiansac-
tions by Aiea - Nexico," Naich 14, 2u1S, www.bea.gov¡iTable¡iTableBtml.cfm.ieqiu=6&step=S&isu
ii=1&6uu=46&6u1=2u12&6u2=u&6uS=22&6u4=u&6uS=1.
1u8 The thiiu paity to NAFTA, Canaua, is the 0niteu States' laigest tiaue paitnei. 0S expoits of goous to Cana-
ua ÷ $294 billion ÷ compiise 47 peicent of total bilateial tiaue in goous; see BEA, "Table 12 0.S. Inteinational
Tiansactions by Aiea - Canaua," Naich 14, 2u1S, www.bea.gov¡iTable¡iTableBtml.cfm.ieqiu=6&step=S&isu
ii=1&6uu=41&6u1=2u12&6u2=u&6uS=9&6u4=u&6uS=1.
1u9 NPI analysis of BEA uata, "Table 12 0.S. Inteinational Tiansactions by Aiea," Naich 14, 2u1S, www.bea.gov¡iTable¡iTable.cf
m.ReqIB=6&step=1#ieqiu=6&step=1&isuii=1.
11u Chiistophei E. Wilson, Workinq Toqetber: Fconomic Ties Between tbe 0niteJ Stotes onJ Hexico (Washington, BC: Woouiow
Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais, 2u11), www.wilsoncentei.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡Woiking%2uTogethei%2u
Full%2uBocument.puf.
111 See Chiistophei E. Wilson, "A 0.S.-Nexico Economic Alliance: Policy 0ptions foi a Competitive Region," in New lJeos for o
New Fro: Policy 0ptions for tbe Next Stoqe in 0.S.-Hexico Relotions (Washington, BC: Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais,
2u1S), www.wilsoncentei.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡new_iueas_us_mexico_ielations.puf.
112 NPI Analysis of BEA uata, accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S, www.bea.gov¡inteinational¡xls¡table_C.xls.
11S Census Buieau, 2u11 ACS, accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S, http:¡¡factfinuei2.census.gov¡faces¡tableseivices¡jsf¡pages¡piouuct-
view.xhtml.piu=ACS_11_1YR_Su2u1&piouType=table.
Tbe unJerlyinq ossumptions obout tbe Jrivers of reqionol miqrotion
ore cbonqinq, if in Jifferent woys onJ ot Jifferent rotes.
43
light of the funuamental changes that aie taking place thioughout the iegion howevei unevenly anu fiom
vastly uiffeient staiting points, the Stuuy uioup notes that the countiies of the iegion neeu to uevelop anu
embiace a longei-teim vision foi the inteisection of human-capital uevelopment anu economic giowth
anu competitiveness policies, anu the iole that migiation can play in them.
Although theie is not a univeisal iecipe foi economic giowth, economists have long been inteiesteu in
the connections between human capital anu uevelopment.
114
The Stuuy uioup's own ieseaich suggests
that a scaicity of skilleu laboi in Nexico anu elsewheie in the iegion is limiting competitiveness
oveiall.
11S
Noieovei, a wiuespieau lack of linkages between the piivate sectoi anu euucation anu tiaining
institutions acioss the iegion means that many stuuents anu woikeis aie not gaining the knowleuge anu
skills they neeu in the laboi maiket.
116

As with Nexico, incomes have been iising in El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias. Bowevei, this tienu
has been uiiven laigely by iemittances iathei than eaineu income.
117
This suggests that the Noithein
Tiiangle countiies have a longei way to go in cieating foimal jobs that pioviue oppoitunities foi citizens
to lift themselves anu theii families out of poveity. Fuitheimoie, though iemittances have been shown
to impiove access to health caie anu basic schooling, they can also seive as a uisincentive to highei
euucation foi iemittance-ieceiving householus.
118
Bence, while iemittances aie impoitant ÷ even ciucial
÷ foi the well-being of those householus that ieceive them, ieliance on iemittances alone to impiove
welfaie is not a sustainable uevelopment solution foi these countiies.
If the iegion's most piomising inuustiies aie to iemain iegionally, anu even globally, competitive, anu if
bioau-baseu economic uevelopment is to auvance fuithei in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica, goveinments
anu employeis must leain to see the iegion's human capital as a iegional iesouice, anu builu anu hainess
it to auvantage. (This is something that the 0niteu States has always uone to gieat benefit.) Accoiuingly,
anu woiking towaiu common goals, goveinment anu inuustiy must invest stiategically in builuing up
each countiy's euucation anu woikfoice tiaining infiastiuctuie with the aim of not only making woikeis
moie piouuctive in the shoit teim but by constantly thinking about the skills that will make them moie
competitive, anu thus piofitable, in the longei teim. That is, these actois must think about how best to
equip inuiviuuals with the skills that will allow them to take auvantage of technological change; builu
national anu, giauually, iegional systems that ovei time ceitify woikeis' qualifications in key sectois; anu
pioviue theii citizens with oppoitunities to utilize theii skills wheie they aie most neeueu anu valueu.
Well-piepaieu woikfoices aie also a coie asset foi foieign investois when they make uecisions about
wheie to invest. To make the point as staikly as possible: foi the business sectoi, stiengthening human
capital is not about noblesse obliqe; it is about enlighteneu self-inteiest.
114 The augmenteu Solow giowth mouel pioposeu by N. uiegoiy Nankiw, Baviu Romei, anu Baviu N. Weil shows that an impoi-
tant shaie of the uiffeience in pei capita income acioss countiies is attiibutable to yeais of schooling; see "A Contiibution to
the Empiiics of Economic uiowth" in tbe µuorterly }ournol of Fconomics vol. 1u7, no. 2 (1992): 4u7-S7. Noie iecently, Nicola
uennaioli, Rafael La Poita, Floiencio Lopez-ue-Silanes, anu Anuiei Shleifei founu that human capital accounts foi Su peicent
of subnational uevelopment uiffeiences, with the euucational attainment of entiepieneuis being paiticulaily impoitant; see
"Buman Capital anu Regional Bevelopment" (NBER Woiking Papei Seiies, Woiking Papei No. w171S8, NBER, }une 2u11),
www.nbei.oig¡papeis¡w171S8.
11S Banson, 0nJerstonJinq Hexico´s Fconomic 0nJerperformonce.
116 Petei A. Cieticos anu Eleanoi Sohnen, Honufocturinq in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ Centrol Americo: lmplicotions for Com-
petitiveness onJ Hiqrotion (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u1S), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡
RNSu-Nanufactuiing.puf.
117 Beteta, Centrol Americon Bevelopment: Two BecoJes of Proqress onJ Cbollenqes for tbe Iuture.
118 Raymunuo Campos-vazquez anu Boiacio Sobaizo, Tbe Bevelopment onJ Iiscol Fffects of Fmiqrotion on Hexico (Washington,
BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u12), www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-fiscaleffects-emigiation.puf.
6overnments onJ employers must leorn to see tbe reqion´s bumon copitol
os o reqionol resource, onJ builJ onJ borness it to oJvontoqe.
44
As foi society, investments in euucation anu woikfoice uevelopment iefoims that giauually uevelop
common stanuaius in key sectois acioss the iegion aie the basic ingieuients foi a bettei futuie foi its
citizens. In tuin, bettei oppoitunities cieate an engine foi giowth in each countiy while stiengthening the
iegion's competitiveness. uoou human capital also contiibutes gieatly to the viituous cycles of economic
giowth anu upwaiu economic mobility by encouiaging the movement away fiom economic infoimality
(a suivival stiategy that has its place in the eailiei stages of economic giowth) anu towaiu moie foimal-
sectoi activities.
The unueilying piemise is that gieatei investment in human capital anu cioss-boiuei collaboiation in
woikfoice tiaining anu iecognition of qualifications foi key sectois of the iegional economy will allow
employeis to benefit fiom a skilleu woikfoice, while woikeis benefit fiom ietuins on euucational anu
tiaining investments iegaiuless of wheie they ultimately choose to sell theii laboi ÷ oi foi how long.
To that enu, policies that encouiage positive circulority ÷ that is, allow migiants to take auvantage
of tempoiaiy employment oppoitunities in both countiies of oiigin anu uestination ÷ can bioauen
the menu of oppoitunity foi both employeis anu employees. Thus, investing in human capital has the
potential to help all the iegion's citizens ÷ migiants anu nonmigiants alike. 0vei time, successful
woikfoice uevelopment also will mitigate touay's conceins about the scope anu "quality" of migiation
fiom the iegion, while setting the stage foi futuie iegional migiation to be moie of a genuine choice,
iathei than a mattei of sheei economic suivival.
A. Borrìers ond Opportunìtìes to Buìldìng ond Actìvotìng Humon Copìtol
The countiies of the iegion must confiont anu oveicome two majoi challenges in achieving this vision.
Fiist, they must finu the iesouices anu political will to builu auequate human capital in aieas that aie
most ielevant to economic uevelopment. Seconu, they must make euucation anu tiaining qualifications
poitable anu "tiansfeiable" ÷ that is, iecognizeu anu thus piopeily compensateu thioughout the
iegion. In Nexico anu Cential Ameiica, foimal unemployment ianges fiom 4.8 peicent to 6.8 peicent,
with unemployment among 1S- to 24-yeai-olus neaily twice as high, at aiounu 9.S to 12.2 peicent.
119

(Nexico's unemployment iates iepiesent the lowei enu of each of these ianges.) Nany moie people aie
unueiemployeu. Nost countiies uon't measuie unueiemployment, but Nexico iecently estimateu that
iate to be 11.4 peicent nationally.
12u
Bepenuing on methous of measuiement, between 4S anu 74 peicent
of woikeis in Nexico anu the Noithein Tiiangle holu infoimal jobs ÷ with women, youth, iuial woikeis,
anu the less-euucateu significantly moie likely to be employeu in the infoimal sectoi.
121

In shoit, uespite much piogiess, euucational anu woikfoice tiaining systems neeu to uo much bettei
in equipping many moie of the iegion's citizens with the knowleuge anu skills uemanueu by touay's
employeis, anu that aie essential to tomoiiow's economic giowth anu competitiveness. Nany young
people leave school too eaily anu aie otheiwise pooily piepaieu foi the foimal-sectoi jobs that pay
family-sustaining wages. This is paiticulaily the case in the Noithein Tiiangle countiies. Specifically,
woikfoice uevelopment piogiams thioughout the iegion, though uesigneu anu caiiieu out with the best
of intentions, often lack linkages to ieal-woilu laboi maiket neeus, anu iemain inaccessible to those who
119 Economic Commission foi Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean (ECLAC) anu Inteinational Laboi 0iganization (IL0), "The Eco-
nomic Situation in Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean," Numbei 7 (Santiago anu ueneva: ECLAC anu IL0, 2u12), www.ilo.oig¡
wcmspS¡gioups¡public¡---ameiicas¡---io-lima¡uocuments¡publication¡wcms_192S97.puf; IL0, "IL0STAT Batabase," www.
ilo.oig¡ilostat; 0ECB, "0ECB.Stat Extiacts," http:¡¡stats.oecu.oig.
12u INEuI, National Suivey of 0ccupation anu Employment (EN0E), "Stiategic Inuicatois," 4
th
quaitei 2u12, accesseu Apiil 9,
2u1S, www.inegi.oig.mx¡Sistemas¡temasv2¡Befault.aspx.s=est&c=2S4SS&t=1. Incluues unueiemployeu anu pait-time
woikeis.
121 IL0, "Key Inuicatois of the Laboi Naiket, 7
th
Euition," Table 8, http:¡¡kilm.ilo.oig¡KILNnet; see also Centio ue Estuuios Bis-
tiibutivos Laboiales y Sociales, 0niveisiuau Nacional ue La Plata, Aigentina, anu the Woilu Bank, "Socio-Economic Batabase
foi Latin Ameiica anu the Caiibbean," accesseu Naich 12, 2u1S, http:¡¡seulac.econo.unlp.euu.ai¡eng¡; anu INEuI, "Inuicauo-
ies opoitunos ue ocupacion y empleo: Cifias pieliminaies uuiante febieio ue 2u1S," accesseu Apiil 1S, 2u1S,
www.inegi.oig.mx¡inegi¡conteniuos¡espanol¡piensa¡boletines¡boletin¡Comunicauos¡Inuicauoies%2uue%2uocupa-
cion%2uy%2uempleo¡2u1S¡Naizo¡comunica.puf.
45
might benefit most fiom them. Nany woikeis finu themselves out of a job when they uo not have the
oppoitunity to leain the skills to keep pace with technological change. 0theis aie likely to finu theii skills
anu euucation unueiutilizeu ÷ anu unueivalueu ÷ because theii qualifications oi cieuentials aie not
iecognizeu by a new employei, a new state, oi a new countiy.
FJucotionol onJ workforce troininq systems neeJ to Jo mucb better in
equippinq mony more of tbe reqion´s citizens witb tbe knowleJqe onJ
skills JemonJeJ by toJoy´s employers.
Sounu policymaking, of couise, must take into account moie than a Su,uuu-foot view of the uemanu
foi skills. It must also be infoimeu by a gianulai unueistanuing of skills gaps anu the baiiieis to using
human capital effectively in inuustiies whose health anu giowth aie ciitical to a countiy's uevelopment
anu, moie bioauly, the economies of the iegion, incluuing sectois that aie key employeis of Nexican anu
Cential Ameiican immigiants in the 0niteu States.
The Stuuy uioup has caiiieu out a seiies of stuuies on foui ciitical anu giowing economic sectois
that holu significant potential foi employment acioss the iegion. They aie health caie (with a focus
on nuising anu associateu activities), agiicultuie, manufactuiing, anu logistics anu tianspoitation.
122

These foui sectois weie chosen on the basis of thiee cential ciiteiia: they alieauy employ a significant
shaie of inuiviuuals boin in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica; they aie expecteu to continue to giow
iobustly thioughout the iegion; anu they aie integial both to national economies anu iegional economic
competiveness. Each sectoi is also highly likely to neeu moie woikeis with specializeu skills anu
expeiience than any one countiy alone can piouuce. If, as the Stuuy uioup believes, it is likely that woikei
shoitfalls in these sectois may occui in the coming uecaues, each of the countiies of the iegion woulu uo
well now to piepaie foi this possibility.
The Stuuy uioup's finuings show that although uiffeient sectois face uiffeient human-capital challenges,
seveial commonalities emeige acioss the two ciiteiia uiscusseu in this section of the iepoit: (1) in
Jevelopinq human capital ÷ that is, euucating anu tiaining the people of the iegion to be piepaieu,
piouuctive membeis of the global economy; anu (2) in mokinq it portoble ÷ that is, allowing inuiviuuals
to tiansfei theii knowleuge anu qualifications between euucational institutions, employeis, anu
countiies. Specifically, the challenges incluue:
quullty unJ relevunce of eJucutlon. Euucational attainment has impioveu impiessively in
Nexico anu the Noithein Tiiangle, paiticulaily at the piimaiy level, anu Nexico now piouuces
moie engineeiing giauuates pei capita than the 0niteu States.
12S
Bowevei, a wiuespieau lack
of linkages between euucation anu tiaining institutions anu the piivate sectoi means that
many stuuents anu woikeis aie not gaining the knowleuge anu skills they will neeu in oiuei
to succeeu in the laboi maiket. These incluue essential communications, pioblem-solving, anu
ciitical thinking skills, as well as basic technical knowleuge anu competencies, especially in the
STEN (science, technology, engineeiing, anu mathematics) uisciplines that aie so essential to
piouuctivity anu innovation. Wheie euucation is of pooi quality anu iiielevant to theii neeus,
122 Foi the publisheu RNSu sectoial stuuies, see Allison Squiies anu Biiam Beltián-Sánchez, Strenqtbeninq Eeoltb Systems in
Nortb onJ Centrol Americo: Wbot Role for Hiqrotion? (Washington, BC: NPI, Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup, 2u1S),
www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-BealthCaie.puf; Naitin anu Tayloi, Ripe witb Cbonqe: Fvolvinq Iorm lobor Horkets
in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ Centrol Americo; anu Cieticos anu Sohnen, Honufocturinq in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ
Centrol Americo: lmplicotions for Competitiveness onJ Hiqrotion.
12S NPI calculations using uata fiom 0NESC0 Institute foi Statistics, Bata Centie, "Total teitiaiy giauuates in engineeiing, manu-
factuiing anu constiuction," 2u1u uata foi the 0niteu States anu Nexico, accesseu Apiil 22, 2u1S, http:¡¡stats.uis.unesco.oig¡
unesco¡Tableviewei¡uocument.aspx.RepoitIu=1S6&IF_Language=eng&BR_Topic=u; anu 0S anu Nexican census uata, 2u1u.
46
stuuents anu theii families ieact accoiuingly: They uiop out of the system. To move foiwaiu,
the countiies of inteiest to the Stuuy uioup must pay gieatei attention to (a) the moie foimal
anu iecognizeu types of tiaining in technical occupations, anu (b) teitiaiy euucation systems
that focus moie squaiely in STEN competencies. It is these piospective woikeis who will foim
the founuation foi successful economies in the yeais aheau anu can unueipin the iegion's
economic competitiveness.
Iow unJ very low levelx of Fngllxh proflclency. Lack of affoiuable, high-quality English
tiaining is limiting the integiation anu job piospects of immigiants in the 0niteu States while
keeping those who uon't emigiate fiom paiticipating in the foimal global economy via jobs in
inteinational tiaue, logistics, anu health caie, as well as in touiism anu call centeis. Such gaps
also uiscouiage these inuustiies fiom locating to oi giowing theii investments in the iegion.
If the iegion is going to giow os o reqion, anu if gieatei economic integiation with the 0niteu
States is a uesiiable goal, English language euucation in the sectois iuentifieu in this iepoit
as well as ielateu sectois must become a key policy taiget in euucation anu tiaining systems
thioughout the iegion.
Iuck of turgeteJ workforce Jevelopment progrumx. Immigiants fiom the iegion woiking
in such 0S sectois as manufactuiing anu agiicultuie aie often clusteieu in occupations that
uon't pay family-sustaining wages, offei little oi no upwaiu mobility, anu have little access
to taigeteu woikfoice uevelopment anu tiaining oppoitunities. As a iesult, the piospects
foi economic anu social mobility aie meagei. This must change if these inuiviuuals anu theii
families aie to be bettei integiateu in the 0niteu States anu if futuie woikeis aie to faie bettei
wheievei they aie baseu.
Recognltlon of quullflcutlonx. Nonexistent tiansciipt anu uiploma stanuaiuization anu low
levels of accieuitation of euucational anu tiaining institutions in the iegion, but paiticulaily in
Cential Ameiica, mean that an inuiviuual's cieuential may not even be iecognizeu in his oi hei
home countiy, much less in anothei countiy. Even in the 0niteu States, wheie inuiviuual states
aie iesponsible foi most piofessional licensuie, iecipiocity agieements aie fai fiom univeisal.
Thus, inteistate mobility can be uifficult anu costly. It is paiticulaily uifficult foi immigiant
piofessionals navigating an unfamiliai system. Neanwhile, migiants with skills that have been
gaineu thiough lengthy, though infoimal, leaining lack the means to have such valuable, if tacit,
qualifications foimally iecognizeu by theii employeis.
Auueu to these obstacles to economic mobility aie the high levels of economic infoimality in Nexico
anu Cential Ameiica anu the lack of legal immigiation pathways foi lowei- anu miuule-skilleu woikeis
into high-uemanu occupations in the 0niteu States. Among these occupations aie agiicultuie anu
constiuction, wheie tacit skills aie essential but not iecognizeu in ways othei than steauy woik; the
bottom half of the health ueliveiy system, ianging fiom home health aiues to ceitain nuising positions;
anu the vaiious tiaues.
B. Recognìzìng the lmportonce o( Cìrculorìty
As noteu eailiei, the neeu foi moie legal migiation pathways to the 0niteu States is likely to be auuiesseu
in the cuiient iounu of 0S immigiation iefoim. Bowevei, the challenge foi the iegion is to piepaie
foi the fai gieatei mobility oppoitunities that aie likely to become available in the next uecaue anu
beyonu ÷ when the iealities anu effects of significantly skeweu uemogiaphic uistiibution become moie
obvious, economic inteiuepenuence acioss the iegion giows evei laigei, anu the benefits of gieatei
economic integiation become moie eviuent ÷ making the neeu foi gieatei coopeiation moie ieal.
Allowing migiation stieams to follow the ebbs anu flows of ielative uemanu within the iegion, thus
iecieating the "ciiculaiity" that existeu befoie the haiuening of the 0S-Nexico boiuei in the miu-199us
but within a legal anu smaitly iegulateu fiamewoik, will become an evei-moie impoitant tool with which
goveinments can iesponu to laboi maiket neeus.
47
Policies in souice anu ieceiving countiies that encouiage "positive" ciiculaiity ÷ that is, those that allow
migiants to take auvantage of employment oppoitunities in both countiies of oiigin anu uestination
÷ must be unueistoou as beneficial mechanisms that can help stimulate economic uevelopment anu
tiansfei knowleuge thioughout the countiies of the iegion.
Tbe cbollenqe for tbe reqion is to prepore for tbe for qreoter mobility
opportunities tbot ore likely to become ovoiloble in tbe next JecoJe onJ beyonJ.
When senuing countiies pioviue incentives to attiact some of these nationals to ietuin to theii countiies
anu invest in theii own economic mobility, theii chiluien's euucation, anu the uevelopment of theii
communities, the positive iesults can be significant. Countiies of oiigin might look, in paiticulai, to what
is also alieauy a significant population of uual citizens ÷ many of them now young chiluien ÷ which will
giow consiueiably aftei the next uecaue if cuiient 0S immigiation iefoim pioposals aie successful. Tbe
interploy of incentives ot botb oriqin onJ Jestinotion con foster tbe builJinq of reqionol miqrotion systems
tbot encouroqe bock-onJ-fortb movement onJ tbe skill onJ experience excbonqes tbot occompony sucb
movement.
This uynamic also seives the ciucial goals of the iule of law, safety, the pievention of exploitation, the
piomotion of appiopiiate laboi anu social iights, anu, giauually, the uevelopment of a "habit" of thinking
of woikeis with foimal oi tacit skills as assets. This scenaiio will woik best, howevei, if the countiies in
the iegion commit to bettei manage all the issues ielevant to gieatei ciiculaiity ÷ incluuing iecognition
of qualifications anu social secuiity totalization aiiangements ÷ anu thus set the stage foi gieatei anu
moie oiganic coopeiation.
C. Buìldìng Quolìµcotìons Thot Are Recognìzed ond Portoble Across the Regìon
Suimounting the afoiementioneu baiiieis to human-capital uevelopment anu poitability entails systemic
anu sustaineu action in a numbei of policy aieas by each of the countiies of the iegion. Bowevei, the
piocess of thinking anu acting iegionally uoes not empowei any one countiy to make uemanus of anothei,
oi obligate any countiy to submit its soveieign policy uecisions to the appioval of anothei. Noi shoulu the
facilitation of laboi movement acioss boiueis come at the expense of existing woikeis in any one countiy,
oi be useu as a mechanism to uiive uown wages oi evaue oi unueimine laboi stanuaius oi piotections.
Rathei, the Stuuy uioup encouiages the countiies in the iegion to commit to thoughtful collaboiation that
incluues the builuing out fiom existing piogiams anu to sectoi-specific pilot piogiams anu activities that
tiain woikeis to common stanuaius. These pilot piogiams might incluue the following:
Builuing 0S-specific euucational anu language tiaining into nuising euucation piogiams in
the iegion foi those wishing to be bettei piepaieu health-caie piofessionals anu thus able
to take auvantage of gieatei oppoitunities wheievei they may be. The uemanu foi bilingual
health piofessionals tiaineu to common stanuaius acioss the iegion will only inciease. In the
0niteu States, aging cohoits of eailiei Spanish-speaking immigiants will neeu health caie in
evei laigei numbeis. uiven that auopteu-countiy language skills often uegiaue in the latei
stages of life, bilingual health-caie staffing neeus will exploue in the uecaue aheau anu beyonu.
To that, one must auu the neeus of the population likely to ieceive legal status unuei the
legislation unuei consiueiation in the 0S Congiess (about thiee-quaiteis of whom aie likely
to be Spanish speakeis).
124
Finally, as moie Ameiicans anu Canauians ietiie in the iegion, anu
124 Foi the countiies of oiigin of the unauthoiizeu population in the 0niteu States, see Boefei, Rytina, anu Bakei, Fstimotes of tbe
0noutborizeJ lmmiqront Populotion ResiJinq in tbe 0niteJ Stotes: }onuory 2011; anu }effiey S. Passel anu B'veia Cohn,
0noutborizeJ lmmiqront Populotion: Notionol onJ Stote TrenJs, 2010 (Washington, BC: Pew Bispanic Centei, 2u11),
48
as evei-escalating health-caie costs put many meuical seivices out of ieach, "meuical touiism"
will also giow, iequiiing bilingual meuical seivice pioviueis. The point is simple: in the longei
teim, expanuing the supply anu impioving the quality of tiaining of nuises anu othei meuical
peisonnel in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica will meet the health-caie neeus of the iegion much
moie effectively anu with highei-quality caie. Nursinq core, bowever, connot be tbe only focus of
on exponJinq pool of bilinquol beoltb-core workers. A sustaineu effoit to pioviue tiaining anu
binational oi iegional ceitification to uiiect-caie woikeis such as nuises' aiues anu home health
aiues, foi whom uemanu also is expecteu to inciease iapiuly in the 0niteu States anu soon aftei
in Nexico, must also become a piioiity. A goou stait might be to peisuaue two-yeai colleges anu
tiaining institutions acioss the iegion to begin collaboiative effoits to tiain such woikeis to
common stanuaius.
Connecting anu piomoting euucational exchange piogiams between 0S, Nexican, anu
Cential Ameiican logistics tiaining institutions, so as to encouiage uevelopment of common
competency stanuaius anu ceitifications. This is an essential element of gieatei integiation in
a sectoi in which all countiies in the iegion aie alieauy investing, anu the piospect of a iegion-
wiue logistics system that moves goous seamlessly is a veiy piomising competitiveness stiategy
foi all involveu ÷ not just companies engaging in inteinational tiaue, but also those selling to
the uomestic maiket anu the iegion's giowing consumei class.
Woiking with 0S gioweis anu faimwoikeis' oiganizations to uevelop a laboi infoimation
cleaiinghouse that can help agiicultuial woikeis iuentify anu access tiaining that leaus to
gieatei mobility oppoitunities, anu moie secuie income stieams. As the uemanu in the iegion
foi highei-value ciops ÷ such as fiuits, vegetables, anu hoiticultuial specialties like mushiooms
anu floweis ÷ giows along with income levels, some piouuction will become moie mechanizeu,
uemanuing that woikeis possess incieaseu technical skills, while piouuction of othei ciops
will iemain low-skill intensive.
12S
In eithei case, existing anu potential agiicultuial woikeis
woulu benefit significantly fiom bettei access to infoimation on tiaining anu employment
oppoitunities in the sectoi, paiticulaily if the pioposeu legalization of unauthoiizeu faim
woikeis now in the 0niteu States iequiies them to commit to woiking in agiicultuie foi
extenueu peiious of time.
Linking manufactuiing employeis anu technical institutions to uevelop integiateu vocational
skills tiaining piogiams, auuiessing both shoitei-teim anu stiuctuial skills shoitages. 0nce
moie, the iationale is compelling: as piouuction becomes moie mechanizeu thioughout the
iegion, skill iequiiements foi manufactuiing woikeis aie evolving iapiuly. Countiies that can
equip theii people with the technical skills to meet sectoi neeus as well as with the pioblem-
solving anu ciitical-thinking skills to auapt to longei-teim uemanu can ietain economically vital
highei-value-auueu anu auvanceu manufactuiing sectois in the iegion. This will also pioviue
oppoitunities foi existing woikeis who might not otheiwise be ieauy to take auvantage of a 0S
manufactuiing "ienaissance" oi the Nexican manufactuiing boom.
Woiking with the constiuction inuustiy anu skilleu tiaues associations to uevelop instiuments
to ceitify woikeis' tacit skills, foimally iecognizing theii qualifications anu enabling them to move
between employeis, anu, when uemanu anu supply imbalances become ceitifieu, across borJers.
In the longei iun, cieating common euucational anu woikfoice uevelopment stanuaius in the iegion
in sectois in which both national anu iegional economic giowth can be anchoieu will iequiie many
auuitional policy iefoims. Within the highei-euucation space in Nexico anu Cential Ameiica, these
actions incluue expanuing accieuitation of postseconuaiy institutions anu stanuaiuizing tiansciipts.
Foi businesses, this might mean pooling iesouices to cieate inuustiy tiaining centeis that help bettei
piepaie stuuents as well as existing anu new woikeis. Funuamentally, howevei, the active paiticipation of
www.pewhispanic.oig¡files¡iepoits¡1SS.puf. ichaelNucleai Families unuei 0.infiastiuct that can life the economic foitunes of
each countiy anu the iegion itself can become
12S Naitin anu Tayloi, Ripe witb Cbonqe: Fvolvinq Iorm lobor Horkets in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ Centrol Americo.
49
all stakeholueis ÷ public, piivate, woikei oiganizations, anu othei key institutions ÷ will be necessaiy
to impiove the ielevance of euucation anu the school-to-woik tiansitions in each of the countiies of the
iegion. 0nly then can the foimal jobs that pioviue family-sustaining wages ÷ anu piepaie the human-
capital infiastiuctuie that can lift the economic foitunes of families in inuiviuual countiies anu the iegion
÷ become a ieality.
Vll. ConcIusions and Reconnendations
This iepoit ieflects the views anu, to the extent possible, the "voices" of the membeis of the Regional
Nigiation Stuuy uioup. The Stuuy uioup came togethei in an effoit to think thiough anu offei the
iesults of its analysis anu iecommenuations on a set of issues that aie among the most complicateu in
the "iegion" which has been the Stuuy uioup's main manuate: The Noithein Tiiangle of Cential Ameiica
(El Salvauoi, uuatemala, anu Bonuuias), Nexico, anu the 0niteu States. At the centei of these issues
is a peiennial one: migiation. Anu suiiounuing it aie a host of othei uifficult conceins: illegality anu
its poison fiuits all along the migiation continuum; secuiity (both of the state anu peisonal secuiity);
uisoiuei, which also often engulfs the families anu householus of unauthoiizeu immigiants anu, in
many ways, theii communities anu woikplaces; lack of safety, anu thieats, extoition, intimiuation,
anu exploitation; anu the negative ieactions of ieceiving societies that aie conceineu about the effects
(paiticulaily some of the moie visible costs) of illegal migiation anu clamoi foi evei gieatei effoits to
stop it. Anu of couise, anu as if these issues weie not complicateu enough, the set of challenges associateu
with the massive giowth of oiganizeu ciime, anu paiticulaily to public anu peisonal secuiity anu the
ability of goveinments in the iegion to govein.
This litany of pathologies has shapeu the 0S uebate about immigiation iefoim, seemingly with little
iegaiu foi the iole playeu by the 0S economy's often voiacious appetite foi low-wage laboi anu the 0S
immigiation system's inability to accommouate that uemanu by bioauening its legal visa stieams. The
Stuuy uioup membeis as a iesult have been closely following the appaient oppoitunity ÷ the most
piomising in 2S yeais ÷ foi iefoiming the 0S system anu, in this iepoit, they offei seveial conciete
iecommenuations about key elements that shoulu be incluueu in the final legislation.
But the Stuuy uioup's iemit anu inteiests go well beyonu neeueu iefoims to the 0S immigiation system.
The final iepoit aigues foi, anu offeis, iecommenuations on matteis that iange fiom immigiation iefoims
that the iest of the iegion shoulu auopt, to builuing the founuation foi anu constiucting the policy anu
political infiastiuctuie foi thinking about migiation iegionally. Noieovei, it consiueis how to constiuct
a iegion that thinks of its assets ÷ anu especially uemogiaphy anu human capital ÷ in complementaiy
ways. Convinceu that uoing so cieates much gieatei oppoitunities foi the iegion anu its peoples anu
sets the stage of gieatei competitiveness in the global economy, the Stuuy uioup offeis a seiies of
iecommenuations on how to builu, coopeiatively, the iegion's human capital.
But gieatei mobility, iathei than peimanent migiation, is nevei too fai fiom the gioup's vision. The Stuuy
uioup lookeu caiefully at foui economic sectois in which all countiies of the iegion have been focusing
by making substantial investments anu noteu that the eviuence points towaiu continueu giowth ÷ anu
Tbis report onJ its recommenJotions, jinolly, ore not obout more or less
miqrotion; tbey ore obout smorter miqrotion policies.
50
hence gieatei neeu foi woikeis, anu paiticulaily foi woikeis with both foimal anu tacit skills. As a iesult,
the Stuuy uioup membeis piopose initial effoits towaiu skills uevelopment in ways that, ovei time, can
stanuaiuize the euucation anu tiaining of woikeis in these sectois anu become a useful way of thinking of
human capital anu its mobility within the iegion as a iesouice foi a moie competitive futuie.
This iepoit anu its iecommenuations, finally, aie not about moie oi less migiation; they aie about
smaitei migiation policies that woulu auu gieatei benefits to countiies that senu migiants anu offei
much gieatei ietuins to immigiants, who now pay almost all of the penalties associateu with illegal,
unsafe, anu uisoiueily migiation ÷ anu, in the piocess, poison the public policy atmospheie anu the
public's peiceptions about most, if not all, of the iegion's immigiants. Anu while the challenges the
iegion is facing aie veiy laige, anu some of them will simply not go away, the thiust of the Stuuy uioup's
thinking anu iecommenuations is on the oppoitunities foi the iegion, which aie at least equally, if not moie,
piomising. Woiking togethei patiently anu smaitly can make this piomise ieal foi the iegion anu its people.
Following aie the Stuuy uioup's finuings:
1. Tbe Study Croup Members believe tbat tbe next pbase of a regional relationsbip tbat is
already strong, if complex and uneven, starts witb tbe acknowledgment tbat tbe United
States, Mexico, and Central American countries can sbape a future in wbicb working
togetber brings benefits to eacb of tbem and to tbe region tbat are mucb larger tban tbe
sum of individual efforts. The elements of that futuie become obvious when vieweu thiough
the lens of mutual auvantage. They incluue uemogiaphic anu laboi maiket complementaiities;
laige anu inexoiably giowing tiaue anu commeicial links that unueipin ueepening economic
inteiuepenuence; secuiity that incluues but extenus well beyonu stiong boiueis; anu moie
closely aligneu euucational anu tiaining systems. When such systems become pait of a shaieu
vision anu aie puisueu with uiligence they can seive as the fulcium of a iegion-wiue economic
giowth agenua that cieates bettei oppoitunities foi all anu, togethei with Canaua, a moie
globally competitive Noith Ameiica.
2. Normalizing immigration relationsbips witbin tbe region is critical to making real
progress on most otber important issues, including organic cooperation against
smugglers and otbers wbo profit from illegality. 0ne of the key ingieuients to noimalization
is to acknowleuge anu iesponu to a key cause of illegal immigiation: the uemanu foi low-
wage woikeis by 0S employeis anu the 0S immigiation system's inability to aujust the supply
of legal woik visas to ieflect uemanu bettei. Tbe StuJy 6roup believes tbot tbe most effective
response to tbe orquments onJ recriminotions obout illeqol immiqrotion witbin tbe reqion is
funJomentol reform to immiqrotion systems onJ o culturol sbift owoy from tbe concept of "el
norte" os o rite of possoqe. Theie aie ieasons to be optimistic. Nexico's ueclining feitility has
leu to fewei new woikeis enteiing its laboi foice, a phenomenon that will only acceleiate.
Noieovei, Nexico's economy has been giowing fastei than the 0S economy since 2u1u. Anemic
0S job giowth anu a continuing 0S pieoccupation with boiuei anu inteiioi contiols have
cieateu a new ieality on the giounu: total net migiation fiom Nexico since 2u1u has been at oi
neai zeio. Noieovei, Nexico completeu a majoi oveihaul of its immigiation iules in late 2u12
anu othei countiies in the iegion aie obseiving closely how the law is implementeu, as they
consiuei how to aujust theii own iules. Noie impoitant yet, aftei moie than a uecaue of tiying
unsuccessfully to oveihaul the 0S immigiation system (the effoit staiteu in 2uu1, with bilateial
negotiations between the 0niteu States anu Nexico), politics in the 0niteu States aie aligning
stiongly in favoi of a bioau, ambitious solution known as compiehensive immigiation iefoim.
3. Tbe Study Croup strongly supports tbe elements of tbe emerging political consensus on
immigration reform in tbe United States. uioup Nembeis stanu fiimly behinu a numbei of
funuamental piinciples that appeai to be cential to the iefoim piioiities of both an influential
bipaitisan gioup in the 0S Senate anu the White Bouse ÷ anu believe that these piinciples
shoulu finu theii way into similai iefoim initiatives thioughout the iegion.
51
Fiist, immigiation iefoim must incluue an eaineu legalization piogiam that tips stiongly
to the siue of inclusiveness anu leaus to eligibility foi a gieen caiu foi all those who meet
the iequisite iules, anu eventual citizenship foi those who choose it.
Seconu, continuing attention to boiuei contiols is necessaiy both as a bulwaik against the
entiy of unuesiiable inuiviuuals anu contiabanu but also as a symbol of the soveieignty to
which each countiy in the iegion is staunchly committeu. A uiffeient ielationship within
the iegion can only be successful if it is anchoieu on iespect foi boiueis anu piomotes
oiganic collaboiation towaiu maintaining theii integiity.
Thiiu, legality, oiuei, faiiness, safety, anu iespect towaiu the basic legal, economic,
anu social iights of all foieign nationals shoulu be at the veiy centei of immigiation
systems thioughout the iegion. These piinciples seive the inteiests of most immigiation
actois well ÷ except those who uiaw immense piofits fiom bieaking these iules. The
piolifeiation of smuggling synuicates speaks both to theii piofitability anu to the uemanu
foi the seivices they offei.
Fouith, enfoicing the law anu thus safeguaiuing the integiity of the immigiation systems
that aie emeiging oi aie likely to emeige thioughout the iegion is essential to meeting
legitimate citizen conceins about theii goveinment's commitment to its own iules. It is
also essential to pieventing (a ietuin to) uisoiuei in ieceiving communities anu illegality
in woikplaces in each nation.
Fifth, anticipating a futuie in which moie foieign woikeis of vaiying skills aie likely
to be neeueu thioughout much of the iegion is essential to pieventing both woulu-be
woikeis anu theii employeis fiom iesoiting to illegality. A simple piinciple can become
the linchpin foi healthiei immigiation ielationships within the iegion: in meetinq seosonol
onJ otber primorily temporory worker neeJs, countries in tbe reqion sboulJ look jirst to
tbe reqion. A iegional piefeience foi woikeis at miu- anu lowei-skill levels (peihaps
stiuctuieu to hiie fiom within the iegion fiist befoie making positions moie bioauly
available) can cieate incentives foi playing by the iules anu pioviue an inuucement foi
woulu-be immigiant woikeis to bettei piepaie foi immigiation by builuing theii skills,
leaining English, anu obeying the laws of theii countiy, since ciiminal backgiounu checks
aie embeuueu in immigiation visa anu aumissions uecisions.
Sixth, immigiation systems uesigneu to iesponsibly iesponu to woikei shoitfalls
wheievei they may be will be evei moie ciitical to sustaineu economic giowth in the next
uecaue anu beyonu. Countiies with such systems, such as Austialia, Canaua, New Zealanu,
Spain, anu othei countiies inteiesteu in substantial levels of immigiation, have been
leaueis in allowing sub-national anu even local juiisuictions to ieciuit neeueu woikeis
uiiectly. Countries in tbe reqion sboulJ experiment witb woys to oJopt onJ emulote sucb
efforts. In so uoing, immigiation agencies can uemonstiate that taigeteu immigiation
can contiibute uiiectly to the uemogiaphic vitality anu economic giowth of political
juiisuictions at all levels. Piogiess in this new immigiation policy fiontiei staits with a
commitment by national goveinments to consult iegulaily with such juiisuictions in oiuei
to biing the benefits of selecteJ immiqrotion wheie it is neeueu most.
4. Tbe Study Croup is convinced tbat immigration reforms tbat adbere to tbe six principles
above can make a dramatic difference in tbe way immigration takes place witbin tbe
region and can reset immigration and related relationsbips across it. The Stuuy uioup is
giatifieu that a numbei of the policy iueas it has enuoiseu that have been put into the policy
mainstieam by the conveneis anu Stuuy uioup membeis alike appeai to have been embiaceu
by key 0S lawmakeis anu the auministiation. The Stuuy uioup believes that these iueas aie
paiticulaily woith enacting anu embiacing acioss the iegion.

52
A new viso streom of temporory work visos {provisionol visos) tbot woulJ permit portobility
onJ unJer certoin conJitions, ultimote eliqibility for qreen corJs. visa poitability ÷ the
ability to change employeis aftei a ieasonable peiiou of time oi if the employei violates
key teims of the woik contiact ÷ togethei with legally guaianteeu wage levels, woiking
conuitions, anu woikei piotections iebalances an inheiently unequal powei ielationship.
Similaily, the ability to eain a gieen caiu foi those who want it anu aie able to meet its
auuitional iequiiements woulu allow many moie tempoiaiy woikeis to tiansition into
peimanent immigiant status. Such a visa stieam encouiages playing by the iules, leaining
English, anu community engagement that cieate bettei outcomes foi all the paities affecteu
by migiation.
ln builJinq tbe next qenerotion of worker visos, requirements sboulJ encouroqe tbe builJinq
of reqionol miqrotion systems tbot ore more circulor in noture, tbot is, tbey encouroqe bock-
onJ-fortb movement onJ tbe skill onJ experience excbonqes tbot occompony sucb movement.
Positive iesults can be fuithei magnifieu when senuing countiies pioviue incentives to
attiact some of these woikeis to ietuin to theii countiies anu invest in theii own economic
mobility, theii chiluien's euucation, anu the uevelopment of theii communities. The positive
inteiplay of incentives at both oiigin anu uestination can set the stage foi the gieatei
woikei mobility the Stuuy uioup anticipates in the next uecaue anu beyonu.
A new feJerol reseorcb oqency tbot woulJ corry out inJepenJent Jemoqropbic onJ lobor
morket reseorcb onJ oJvise tbe 0S Conqress on oJjustinq tbe number of temporory worker
visos onJ tbe sectors onJ inJustries to wbicb sucb visos sboulJ be JirecteJ. Such auvice, baseu
on the iesults of ongoing ieseaich, woulu peimit flexibility anu auaptability in immigiation
levels that othei countiies' immigiation systems enjoy but the 0S system lacks. The
agency's woik woulu also builu the analytical founuation foi opening the 0S tempoiaiy
woik visa system to all jobs anu thus enu the neaily exclusive 0S emphasis on issuing
visas only foi jobs at the top anu bottom of the laboi maiket ÷ anothei anomaly ielative
to many othei majoi immigiant-ieceiving countiies. The Stuuy uioup believes that othei
goveinments in the iegion shoulu watch closely the evolution of that agency anu consiuei
emulating the 0niteu States when conuitions waiiant.
FnJinq tbe seporotion of nucleor fomilies by permittinq fomily reunijicotion for lowful
permonent resiJents witb tbeir spouses onJ minor cbilJren, os is permitteJ for 0S citizens.
Such sepaiations aie unique among high-income anu many miuule-income countiies anu
unueimine one of the most funuamental piinciples of immigiation law eveiywheie: family
unity. Such limits also fuel illegality anu human tiageuies when family membeis attempt to
cioss boiueis to ieunify outsiue legal channels. Nexico, anu, ovei time, othei countiies in
the iegion shoulu follow a similai couise.
5. Successful immigration systems require tbe full engagement of botb tbe entire
government and tbe wbole of society. Few policy poitfolios cut acioss moie goveinment
agency manuates oi iequiie moie of the attention of society than uoes immigiation. Whethei
the issue is boiuei contiols, inteiioi secuiity, anu the iule of law; euucation anu woikei
piepaiation foi immigiants anu theii families; woikei anu social piotections with a paiticulai
focus on the sectois anu job categoiies in which immigiant woikeis conveige; foieign,
commeicial, anu uevelopment policies; oi housing anu social welfaie policies, the engagement
of the entiie goveinment anu the coopeiation of the piivate sectoi anu a society's social
paitneis anu community-baseu oiganizations aie simply essential. Tbe StuJy 6roup members
believe tbot miqrotion works best wben tbe receivinq qovernment onJ society work toqetber onJ
commit to qettinq tbe most out of it. Yet in none of the countiies the Stuuy uioup examineu is
this fully the case. The Stuuy uioup is nonetheless encouiageu by the incieasing attention to
these issues by all these actois anu by the giowing engagement of both the business sectoi anu
civil society on the issue acioss the iegion.
53
ó. Tbe Study Croup believes tbat no single development is more promising for eacb of tbe
region's countries, and for tbe region itself, tban tbe growtb in tbe size and confidence
of tbe middle classes. Niuule classes pay moie taxes (enabling the goveinment to uo moie of
the things citizens expect of it), anu consume moie goous anu seivices, fuithei fueling uemanu.
uieatei uemanu cieates moie jobs anu attiacts uomestic anu foieign investment. Beyonu the
economy, the iange of positive changes that iobust miuule classes typically geneiate incluue
a commitment to political anu economic stability, auheience to the iule of law, institutional
iefoims that make the encountei between citizens anu public seivants iespectful anu
piouuctive, anu an enviionment that nuituies anu stimulates investments by inuiviuuals in
theii chiluien's euucation anu theii own human capital. Such a political, social, anu economic
enviionment in tuin encouiages moie highly qualifieu people to stay at home (oi ietuin)
anu invest theii skills in theii countiy. Notinq tbe enormous qrowtb in Hexico´s miJJle closses,
tbe StuJy 6roup recommenJs tbot qovernments onJ tbe business sector focus on nurturinq onJ
Jrowinq out more fully tbe extroorJinory potentiol tbot lorqe onJ qrowinq miJJle closses offer.
The Stuuy uioup encouiages the othei countiies in the iegion to commit to economic, political,
anu social iefoims that unueipin miuule-class giowth.
7. Economic and political order and stability, and a commitment to building tbe necessary
social infrastructure, are tbe cornerstones of continuing growtb and prosperity in tbe
region. Nexico has maue enoimous economic piogiess uuiing its last thiee piesiuencies anu
its macioeconomic peifoimance is enviable. Piogiess has also extenueu to political stability
anu, inciementally, to a giowing system of social piotections. The cuiient goveinment
appeais piepaieu to continue these iefoims by intensifying anu wiuening the ieach of its
social safety net, focusing on the peisonal secuiity of all its iesiuents, anu ueepening the
countiy's commitment to uemociatic piocesses, stiongei institutions, anu the iule of law.
Tbe new oJministrotion´s obility to reocb oqreement ocross porties on lobor, eJucotion, onJ
telecommunicotions reform ore extremely promisinq onJ tbe StuJy 6roup opplouJs tbese efforts.
Noieovei, the Stuuy uioup is veiy encouiageu by the social anu economic piogiess El Salvauoi
has been making anu by the piomising signs of the new uuatemalan goveinment's heauway
towaiu gieatei stability anu bettei goveinance.
8. Tbe Study Croup urges a single-minded commitment to tbe rule of law and institutional
reforms tbat value accountability and transparency above all else. Tbese must become
and remain tbe most important governance priorities tbrougbout tbe region. Theie is no
gieatei challenge to those goou-goveinment goals than oiganizeu ciime anu violence, typically
centeieu on uiug tiafficking anu much less uiiectly, the facilitation of illegal migiation, anu the
intimiuation anu coiiuption they fuel. This is a iegion-wiue challenge that iespects no boiueis
anu systematically unueimines the confiuence that the goveineu have in theii goveinment anu
public institutions. It may also well be the most tioublesome uevelopment in the iegion: the
laige anu, in some instances, giowing peisonal insecuiity that lawlessness has biought about.
9. Mexico and tbe otber countries in tbe region must continue to focus on building up tbeir
buman-capital reservoirs by investing ever more resources of all types in expanding and
reforming tbeir educational and training systems. Bespite enoimous piogiess, the gains
acioss the iegion aie maikeuly uiffeient. By many measuies, Nexico's euucational piogiess has
been iemaikable. El Salvauoi also shows a positive seculai tienu, but the othei two countiies,
uuatemala anu Bonuuias, follow at consiueiable uistance. Tbe StuJy 6roup is convinceJ tbot
biqb-functioninq eJucotionol systems onJ troininq institutions ore ot tbe core of tbe economic
qrowtb onJ competitiveness of eocb country witbin tbe reqion onJ, by extension, tbe reqion itself.
In this iegaiu, piogiess has to giauually move beyonu school attenuance anu even giauuation
iates anu towaiu quality euucation foi all.

54
10. Tbe Study Croup calls for concerted efforts by eacb country in tbe region to invest
systematically in tbe buman capital of its people. Such effoits, howevei, cannot be a
function of goveinment alone. Civil society must also make it a piioiity. Noie impoitant yet,
the business sectoi in each countiy must put at the top of its policy agenua the uevelopment of
human capital, both by auvocating foi it with the goveinment anu laboi oiganizations anu by
joining them in investing in skills uevelopment. Foi the business community, this is not about
noblesse obliqe; it is about enlighteneu self-inteiest. In the absence of a well-tiaineu woikfoice,
businesses cannot piospei, inuustiies cannot be competitive, householus cannot builu lives
that can set them on a couise to oppoitunity, anu investois, foieign anu uomestic, will not
invest moie in a countiy. Anu a well-piepaieu woikfoice iequiies public investments in quality
euucation onJ a cultuial change all acioss society that commits to the foimalization of skills,
iecognizes anu iewaius appiopiiately the tacit ("soft") skills that extensive expeiience in a
sectoi teaches, anu iecognizes the impoitance, anu inueeu the necessity, of lifelong leaining.
11. Regional economic growtb and competitiveness demand tbat countries tbink barder
about wbat eacb can contribute to tbe region's economic attractiveness and build
complementary pbysical and buman-capital infrastructures tbat can contribute to tbat
goal. The Stuuy uioup has iuentifieu foui sectois that aie likely to continue to giow acioss the
iegion in the next uecaue anu thus iequiie moie well-tiaineu woikeis than any countiy alone,
not just the 0niteu States, is likely to piouuce. They aie: logistics anu tianspoitation, nuising
anu associateu health piofessions, (auvanceu) manufactuiing, anu agiicultuie. If economic anu
social investments aie uone piopeily, the iegion's complementaiities will leau to auuitional
giowth in all foui sectois, iequiiing moie woikeis yet. It cannot be known just when laboi
imbalances that aie likely to iequiie substantially gieatei mobility of woikeis thioughout
the iegion will occui. Tbe StuJy 6roup believes tbot it is o Jistinct possibility tbot siqnijicont,
if selective, worker sbortfolls will occur in tbe meJium term {2020) onJ beyonJ onJ tbot eocb
country in tbe reqion sboulJ beqin preporotions for sucb o future in eornest.
12. Eacb of tbe countries of tbe region bas to contend witb tbe dislocations and disorder
inberent in tbe illegality tbat bas defined migration "relationsbips" during tbe last 40
years. Bepoitation of ciiminals that have fueleu tiansnational gang activity anu sepaiation of
families that consign chiluien to unfamiliai enviionments anu tenuous suppoit systems aie
examples of the social uisoiueis that have become the "face" of the migiation status quo in the
iegion in the past uecaue oi so. But they uon't stop theie. They incluue appaiently giowing
eviuence that many moie tiansmigiants aie being killeu in tiansit both in Cential Ameiica
anu, incieasingly, in Nexico; anu a giowing cultuie of extoition of immigiants who aie in the
0niteu States by thieatening to haim theii ielatives back home. Auuiessing these pathologies
successfully iequiies taigeting the causes of illegality, not just its consequences. Tbe StuJy
6roup believes tbot Jeolinq witb tbese issues must become on obsolute reqionol priority or
qrowinq criminolity onJ sociol Jisinteqrotion will become even more of o cbollenqe to tbe reqion´s
qovernments onJ societies.
13. Drug trafficking and tbe spreading drug culture present a severe cballenge to several
of tbe region's countries by undermining governmental autbority and contributing
to tbe intense sense of personal insecurity tbrougbout large parts of tbe region.
Consumeis of uiugs, the vast majoiity of whom aie in the 0niteu States, funu the caitels
thiough theii consumption, enabling them to coiiupt goveinment officials anu puichase
the aims with which they intimiuate both authoiities anu the public. Since boiuei contiols
will nevei be successful enough as an "anti-uiug" policy, anu the wai on uiug caitels of the
last six yeais has hau enoimous casualties but no winnei, a much bioauei effoit baseu on
oiganic coopeiation acioss the iegion is both necessaiy anu inevitable. Such an effoit will
iequiie enoimous patience, continuing massive investments in intelligence-gatheiing, the
ueployment of ample law enfoicement iesouices, changes to both legislative anu iegulatoiy
fiamewoiks thioughout the iegion, anu the coopeiation of piivate-sectoi agencies (such as
55
wiie tiansfei companies anu the banking sectoi) that will allow authoiities to hit the caitels
wheie it huits: theii pocketbooks. Tbe StuJy 6roup enJorses o comprebensive, multiloyereJ, onJ
Jeeply cooperotive onti-crime effort tbot uses oll tbe tools onJ resources potentiolly ovoiloble
to low enforcement; bos multiple torqets {incluJinq tbe bosses, money, onJ entire infrostructure
of tbe cortels); is focuseJ on reJucinq violence onJ tbose crimes tbot offect citizens´ Joily lives;
onJ is potient onJ focuseJ enouqb to Jismontle tbe criminol networks piece by piece. The RNSu
membeis iecognize that the effoit will be costly, uifficult, anu, unless the uemanu issue is also
auuiesseu, incomplete. But as with all uifficult policy choices, options neeu to be consiueieu
not fiom the basis of fiist piinciples but in compaiison with othei alteinatives. Anu unless the
effoit succeeus, states in the iegion may have little choice but to invest theii effoits in making
boiueis as secuie fiom unwanteu ciossings as possible.
14. Border security between and among Mexico and tbe Nortbern Triangle of Central
America must avoid simply exporting tbe US Soutbern border model to tbe rest of tbe
region. Some think that this may be alieauy in place along paits of the Nexico-uuatemala
boiuei. Pushing boiueis out has become a policy tool that states, fiom the Nembei States of
the Euiopean 0nion to the 0niteu States anu many othei high-income countiies, aie using
evei moie systematically. Yet, the Stuuy uioup believes that theie is still time to consult with
neighbois about the boiuei contiol anu secuiity systems they want anu can affoiu. StuJy 6roup
Hembers ore conjiJent tbot Jioloque, potience, onJ cooperotive solutions still bove o cbonce onJ
tbot tbe true cboice for tbe reqion is not between "borJer" or "softer" borJers; it is obout borJers
tbot ore "smorter" becouse tbey ore supporteJ by o sboreJ stroteqic vision obout tbe reqion´s
economic onJ security future; onJ iJentify onJ invest in borJer security stroteqies tbot olso
incluJe efforts owoy from tbe borJer itself. In the absence of such a vision anu a coopeiatively
uevelopeu stiategy that is implementeu faithfully by all paities to it, haiu boiueis may well
become the policy uefault option ÷ in no small pait because piessuie fiom the 0niteu States
will push the policy envelope towaiu evei haiuei boiueis.
The Stuuy uioup views these iecommenuations anu the final iepoit moie geneially as the necessaiy
ingieuients to infoim policymaking anu engage stakeholueis ÷ fiom civil society, oiganizeu laboi, anu
public anu piivate euucational anu euucational institutions, to the all-impoitant business community anu
the wiuei public ÷ towaiu a moie collaboiative appioach to managing human-capital uevelopment anu
migiation in the iegion. Bespite the many challenges each countiy in the iegion anu the iegion as a whole
face, the Stuuy uioup sees oppoitunities aheau anu hopes to maishal the eneigy of all ielevant actois
towaiu hainessing the uemogiaphic, laboi maiket, anu economic foices that can piopel them, togethei,
into a moie piomising futuie. This is a goou moment to come togethei anu builu that futuie.
Tbis is o qooJ moment to come toqetber onJ builJ tbot future.
56
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Selee, Anuiew, Cynthia }. Ainson, anu Eiic 0lson. 2u1S. Crime onJ violence in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo: An Fvolv-
inq but lncomplete 0S Policy Response. Washington, BC: NPI, RNSu. www.migiationpolicy.oig¡pubs¡RNSu-
EvolvingPolicyResponse.puf.
Silva, }osé Auán. 2u11. Somos "estacion ue seivicio" uel naicotiáfico. Fl Nuevo Biorio, Nay 9, 2u11.
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seivicio%E2%8u%9B-uel-naicoti%CS%A1fico.
Sohnen, Eleanoi. 2u12. Poyinq for Crime: A Review of tbe Relotionsbips Between lnsecurity onJ Bevelopment in Hexico
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puf.
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Tbe 2010 Revision. New Yoik: 0niteu Nations. http:¡¡esa.un.oig¡unpu¡wpp¡Excel-Bata¡BBu1_Peiiou_Inui-
catois¡WPP2u1u_BB1_Fu1_T0TAL_FERTILITY.XLS.
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Custom Tables. Accesseu Apiil 16, 2u1S. http:¡¡stats.uis.unesco.oig¡unesco¡Tableviewei¡uocument.
aspx.RepoitIu=1S6.
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st

thiough Sept. Su
th
). Washington, BC: 0S Customs anu Boiuei Piotection (CBP). www.cbp.gov¡linkhanulei¡
cgov¡boiuei_secuiity¡boiuei_patiol¡usbp_statistics¡usbp_fy12_stats¡appi_otm.ctt¡appi_otm.puf.
________. 2u12. 2012-2016 BorJer Potrol Stroteqic Plon. Washington, BC: CBP. www.cbp.gov¡xp¡cgov¡boiuei_secu-
iity¡boiuei_patiol¡bp_stiat_plan¡.
________. 2u12. 0naccompanieu Chiluien (Age u-17) Appiehensions, Fiscal Yeai 2uu8 thiough Fiscal Yeai 2u12.
Washington, BC: CBP. www.cbp.gov¡linkhanulei¡cgov¡boiuei_secuiity¡boiuei_patiol¡usbp_statistics¡
usbp_fy12_stats¡appi_uac.ctt¡appi_uac.puf.
0S Census Buieau. 2uu6 anu 2u11. Ameiican Community Suivey. http:¡¡factfinuei2.census.gov¡faces¡tablesei-
vices¡jsf¡pages¡piouuctview.xhtml.piu=ACS_11_1YR_Su2u1&piouType=table.
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ton, BC: uP0. www.utexas.euu¡lbj¡uscii¡becoming¡full-iepoit.puf.
0S Bepaitment of Commeice, Buieau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2u11. Table C, Cioss-boiuei seivices expoits anu
impoits by type anu countiy, 0S Inteinational Seivices Summaiy Statistics. Washington, BC: BEA. Accesseu
Apiil 12, 2u1S. www.bea.gov¡inteinational¡xls¡table_C.xls.
________. 2u1S. Table 12 0.S. Inteinational Tiansactions by Aiea, Naich 14, 2u1S. Washington, BC: BEA. Accesseu
Apiil 12, 2u1S. www.bea.gov¡iTable¡iTable.cfm.ReqIB=6&step=1#ieqiu=6&step=1&isuii=1.
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2u1S Poveity uuiuelines. IeJerol Reqister 78, no. 16: S182-8S. http:¡¡aspe.hhs.gov¡poveity¡1Spoveity.cfm.
0S Bepaitment of Bomelanu Secuiity (BBS), 0ffice of Immigiation Statistics (0IS). 2u12. Yeorbook of lmmiqrotion
Stotistics 2011. Washington, BC: BBS, 0IS. www.uhs.gov¡sites¡uefault¡files¡publications¡immigiation-
statistics¡yeaibook¡2u11¡ois_yb_2u11.puf.
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by Type anu Najoi Class of Aumission: Fiscal Yeais 2uuS to 2u12. Washington, BC: BBS, 0IS. www.uhs.gov¡
sites¡uefault¡files¡publications¡immigiation-statistics¡yeaibook¡2u12¡LPR¡table6.xls.
________. 2u12. Yeorbook of lmmiqrotion Stotistics: 2012 Legal Peimanent Resiuents, Table 7 - Peisons 0btaining
Legal Peimanent Resiuent Status by Type anu Betaileu Class of Aumission: Fiscal Yeai 2u12. Washington,
BC: BBS, 0IS. www.uhs.gov¡sites¡uefault¡files¡publications¡immigiation-statistics¡yeaibook¡2u12¡LPR¡
table7u.xls.
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TableXvIB.puf.
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ences ReqistereJ ot tbe Notionol viso Center os of November 1, 2012. Washington, BC: B0S. www.tiavel.state.
gov¡puf¡WaitingListItem.puf.
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stote.qov,viso,bulletin,bulletin_S927.btml.
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Piinting 0ffice (uP0).
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White Bouse 0ffice of National Biug Contiol Policy. 2u12. Tbe Notionol Bruq Control BuJqet: IY 201S IunJinq
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fy-2u1S-funuing-highlights.
Wilson, Chiistophei E. 2u11. Workinq Toqetber: Fconomic Ties Between tbe 0niteJ Stotes onJ Hexico. Washington,
BC: Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais. www.wilsoncentei.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡Woik-
ing%2uTogethei%2uFull%2uBocument.puf.
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foi Scholais. www.wilsoncentei.oig¡sites¡uefault¡files¡wilson_economic_ielations.puf
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wp¡2uu8¡wpu81uS.puf.
62
About the Authors
Demetrios C. Papademetriou is Piesiuent anu Co-Founuei of the Nigiation Policy
Institute (NPI), a Washington-baseu think tank ueuicateu exclusively to the stuuy of
inteinational migiation. Be is also Piesiuent of Nigiation Policy Institute Euiope, a
nonpiofit, inuepenuent ieseaich institute in Biussels that aims to piomote a bettei
unueistanuing of migiation tienus anu effects within Euiope.
Bi. Papauemetiiou is also the convenei anu Co-Biiectoi of the Regional Nigiation
Stuuy uioup; he convenes the Tiansatlantic Council on Nigiation, which is composeu
of senioi public figuies, business leaueis, anu public intellectuals fiom Euiope, the 0niteu States, anu
Canaua; anu chaiis the boaiu of the 0pen Society Founuations' Inteinational Nigiation Initiative. Be has
seiveu as Chaii of the Woilu Economic Foium's ulobal Agenua Council on Nigiation (2uu9-11); Chaii
of the Nigiation Committee of the 0iganization foi Economic Coopeiation anu Bevelopment (0ECB);
Biiectoi foi Immigiation Policy anu Reseaich at the 0S Bepaitment of Laboi anu Chaii of the Secietaiy
of Laboi's Immigiation Policy Task Foice; anu Executive Euitoi of the lnternotionol Hiqrotion Review.
Be also co-founueu anu foi the fiist five yeais of the initiative was Inteinational Chaii of Hetropolis: An
lnternotionol Iorum for Reseorcb onJ Policy on Hiqrotion onJ Cities.
Bi. Papauemetiiou has publisheu moie than 2Su books, aiticles, monogiaphs, anu ieseaich iepoits on
migiation topics anu has auviseu senioi goveinment anu political paity officials in uozens of countiies
(incluuing numeious Euiopean 0nion Nembei States while they holu the iotating E0 piesiuency), as well
as leaueis of multilateial bouies.
Be holus a PhB in compaiative public policy anu inteinational ielations (1976) anu has taught at the
univeisities of Naiylanu, Buke, Ameiican, anu New School foi Social Reseaich.
Doris Meissner, foimei Commissionei of the 0S Immigiation anu Natuialization
Seivice (INS), is a Senioi Fellow at NPI, wheie she uiiects the Institute's 0S
immigiation policy woik. She also is Co-Biiectoi of the Regional Nigiation Stuuy
uioup.
Bei iesponsibilities at NPI focus in paiticulai on the iole of immigiation in Ameiica's
futuie anu on auministeiing the nation's immigiation laws, systems, anu goveinment
agencies. Bei woik anu expeitise also incluue immigiation anu politics, immigiation
enfoicement, boiuei contiol, coopeiation with othei countiies, anu immigiation anu national secuiity.
She has authoieu anu coauthoieu numeious iepoits, aiticles, anu op-eus anu is fiequently quoteu in the
meuia. She seiveu as Biiectoi of NPI's Inuepenuent Task Foice on Immigiation anu Ameiica's Futuie,
a bipaitisan gioup of uistinguisheu leaueis. The gioup's iepoit anu iecommenuations auuiess how to
hainess the auvantages of immigiation foi a 21
st
centuiy economy anu society.
Fiom 199S-2uuu, she seiveu in the Clinton auministiation as Commissionei of the INS, then a buieau
in the 0S Bepaitment of }ustice. Bei accomplishments incluueu iefoiming the nation's asylum system;
cieating new stiategies foi managing 0S boiueis; impioving natuialization anu othei seivices foi
immigiants; shaping new iesponses to migiation anu humanitaiian emeigencies; stiengthening
coopeiation anu joint initiatives with Nexico, Canaua, anu othei countiies; anu managing giowth that
uoubleu the agency's peisonnel anu tiipleu its buuget.
She fiist joineu the }ustice Bepaitment in 197S as a White Bouse Fellow anu Special Assistant to
the Attoiney ueneial. She seiveu in vaiious senioi policy posts until 1981, when she became Acting
Commissionei of INS anu then Executive Associate Commissionei, the thiiu-ianking post in the agency.
63
In 1986, she joineu the Cainegie Enuowment foi Inteinational Peace as a Senioi Associate. Ns. Neissnei
cieateu the Enuowment's Immigiation Policy Pioject, which evolveu into the Nigiation Policy Institute in
2uu1.
A giauuate of the 0niveisity of Wisconsin-Nauison, wheie she eaineu bacheloi of the aits anu mastei of
the aits uegiees, she began hei piofessional caieei theie as Assistant Biiectoi of stuuent financial aiu.
She was also the fiist Executive Biiectoi of the National Women's Political Caucus.
Eleanor Sobnen is a Policy Analyst at NPI anu Pioject Nanagei foi the Regional
Nigiation Stuuy uioup.
Bei ieseaich inteiests incluue the inteiaction of souice-countiy euucation anu
woikfoice systems anu migiation, anu the social anu economic integiation of
intiaiegional laboi migiants in Latin Ameiica.
Ns. Sohnen pieviously seiveu as a consultant to the Intei-Ameiican Bevelopment
Bank (IBB), implementing woikfoice uevelopment anu capacity-builuing piojects in public employment
seivices anu migiation management.
She holus a mastei's uegiee fiom }ohns Bopkins 0niveisity's Nitze School of Auvanceu Inteinational
Stuuies in inteinational ielations anu inteinational economics with a focus on Latin Ameiica anu
uevelopment economics, anu a bacheloi's uegiee in Latin Ameiican Stuuies fiom 0beilin College.
64
About the Convening lnstitutions
Migration PoIicy lnstitute
The Nigiation Policy Institute (NPI) is an inuepenuent, nonpaitisan,
nonpiofit think tank in Washington, BC ueuicateu to analysis of the
movement of people woiluwiue.
NPI pioviues analysis, uevelopment, anu evaluation of migiation anu iefugee policies at the local,
national, anu inteinational levels. It aims to meet the iising uemanu foi piagmatic anu thoughtful
iesponses to the challenges anu oppoitunities that laige-scale migiation, whethei voluntaiy oi foiceu,
piesents to communities anu institutions in an incieasingly integiateu woilu.
Founueu in 2uu1 by Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou anu Kathleen Newlanu, NPI giew out of the
Inteinational Nigiation Policy Piogiam at the Cainegie Enuowment foi Inteinational Peace.
NPI is guiueu by the philosophy that inteinational migiation neeus active anu intelligent management.
When such policies aie in place anu aie iesponsibly auministeieu, they biing benefits to immigiants anu
theii families, communities of oiigin anu uestination, anu senuing anu ieceiving countiies.
Foi moie on NPI, visit www.migiationpolicy.oig. Its online jouinal, the Nigiation Infoimation Souice,
is at www.migiationinfoimation.oig.
Latin Anerican Progran of the Woodrow WiIson
lnternationaI Center for 5choIars
The Woouiow Wilson Inteinational Centei foi Scholais is the official memoiial to the 0niteu States'
28
th
piesiuent. Noie than just a collection of maible pillais anu famous quotes, the Centei is "a living
memoiial," a gatheiing place foi some of the best anu biightest scholais anu expeits fiom aiounu the
woilu. Theii woik is the centeipiece of the Wilson Centei's activity anu infoims the 0niteu States' public
policy uebates with nonpaitisan anu ielevant ieseaich anu infoimation.
Foi moie on the Wilson Centei, visit www.wilsoncentei.oig. Foi its Latin Ameiican Piogiam,
visit http:¡¡wilsoncentei.oig¡piogiam¡latin-ameiican-piogiam; anu foi its Nexico Institute, visit
http:¡¡wilsoncentei.oig¡piogiam¡mexico-institute.
65
The RegionaI Migration 5tudy Group's PubIished Research
0vei its neaily thiee-yeai life, the Regional Nigiation Stuuy uioup commissioneu a seiies of biiefing
papeis to infoim its woik. The publisheu iepoits, which can be founu in theii entiiety at
www.migrationpolicy.orgJregionalstudygroup, aie:
Hexicon Hiqrotion to tbe 0niteJ Stotes: 0nJerlyinq
Fconomic Ioctors onJ Possible Scenorios for Iuture
Ilows
By Baniel Chiquiai anu Alejanuiina Salceuo
Hiqroción Hexicono o los FstoJos 0niJos: Ioctores
Fconómicos Subyocentes y Posibles Fscenorios Je
Ilujos Iuturos
Strenqtbeninq Eeoltb Systems in Nortb onJ Centrol
Americo: Wbot Role for Hiqrotion?
By Allison Squiies anu Biiam Beltián-Sánchez
Resumen uel Sectoi Sistemo Je SoluJ: lmplicociones
poro el Copitol Eumono y lo Hiqroción
Ripe witb Cbonqe: Fvolvinq Iorm lobor Horkets in
tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ Centrol Americo
By Philip Naitin anu }. Euwaiu Tayloi
Resumen Jel Sector Aqriculturo: lmplicociones poro
el Copitol Eumono y lo Hiqroción
Honufocturinq in tbe 0niteJ Stotes, Hexico, onJ
Centrol Americo: lmplicotions for Competitiveness
onJ Hiqrotion
By Petei A. Cieticos anu Eleanoi Sohnen
Resumen Jel Sector Honufocturero: lmplicociones
poro el Copitol Eumono y lo Hiqroción
Crime onJ violence in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo:
An Fvolvinq but lncomplete 0S Policy Response
By Anuiew Selee, Cynthia }. Ainson, anu Eiic L.
0lson
ln tbe lurcb Between 6overnment onJ Cboos:
0nconsoliJoteJ Bemocrocy in Hexico
By Luis Rubio
Poyinq for Crime: A Review of tbe Relotionsbips
Between lnsecurity onJ Bevelopment in Hexico onJ
Centrol Americo
By Eleanoi Sohnen
Tronsnotionol Crime in Hexico onJ Centrol Americo:
lts Fvolution onJ Role in lnternotionol Hiqrotion
By Steven Buuley
BorJer lnsecurity in Centrol Americo´s Nortbern
Trionqle
By Ralph Espach anu Baniel Baeiing
New Approocbes to Hiqrotion Honoqement in
Hexico onJ Centrol Americo
By Fiancisco Alba anu Nanuel Angel Castillo
0nJerstonJinq Hexico´s Fconomic
0nJerperformonce
By uoiuon B. Banson
Centrol Americon Bevelopment: Two BecoJes of
Proqress onJ Cbollenqes for tbe Iuture
By Bugo Beteta
Tbe Bevelopment onJ Iiscol Fffects of Fmiqrotion on
Hexico
By Raymunuo Campos-vazquez anu Boiacio
Sobaizo
0S lmmiqrotion Policy since 9,11: 0nJerstonJinq
tbe Stolemote over Comprebensive lmmiqrotion
Reform
By Naic R. Rosenblum
0S lmmiqrotion Policy onJ Hexicon,Centrol
Americon Hiqrotion Ilows: Tben onJ Now
By Naic R. Rosenblum anu Kate Biick
Fvolvinq Bemoqropbic onJ Eumon-Copitol TrenJs in
Hexico onJ Centrol Americo onJ Tbeir lmplicotions
for Reqionol Hiqrotion
By Aaion Teiiazas, Bemetiios u. Papauemetiiou,
anu Naic R. Rosenblum
Auuitional Resouice:
Hiqrotion lnformotion Source Speciol lssue on
Reqionol Hiqrotion Perspectives: TrenJs, Potterns,
onJ Policies in Centrol Americo, Hexico, onJ tbe 0.S.
1400 16
tb
Street NW
Sulte 300
Wasblngton, DC 20036
Tel: 001 202-266-1940
Fa×: 001 202-266-1900
Tbe Ml gratlon Pol l cy | nstl tute l s a nonprot l t , nonpartl san tbl nk tank
oeolcateo to tbe stuoy ot tbe movement ot people worlowloe. MP| provloes
analysls, oevelopment, ano evaluatlon ot mlgratlon ano retugee pollcles at tbe local,
natlonal , ano l nternatlonal l evel s. |t al ms to meet tbe rl sl ng oemano tor
pragmatlc ano tbougbttul responses to tbe cballenges ano opportunltles tbat
large-scale mlgratlon, wbetber voluntary or torceo, presents to communltles
ano lnstltutlons ln an lncreaslngly lntegrateo worlo.
www. ml gratl onpol l cy. org

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