ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS KAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA Summary

The FINAL: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection consists of the latest fourteen (14) public opinion polls for voter intentions in BC. These fourteen polls combine for a sample of 12,495. If this were an actual scientific opinion poll the Margin of Error would be +/- 0.87 %, 19 times out of 20. We are confident that the BC NDP will form a majority government. Although with a much stronger BC Liberal opposition then previously anticipated. The Premier is projected to win her riding and with such a strong showing given the circumstances going into the election. It is our assessment that the current Premier will stay on as Leader of the Opposition and the rumblings of the so called 801 Club will be muted for now. If this projection holds true and these are the results of the election, the BC NDP can only be disappointed in the outcome. The media and general public knew that the BC Liberal strategy would be a win at any cost effort, and the BC NDP still looked unable,or unwilling, to meet it head on. The opposition to the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion may have cost them as many as five seats in the North and Interior of BC. The expectation going into the election was a BC Liberal wipe out, that seems very improbable. However, the party can celebrate and take solace in the fact that they will return to governing BC after a 12 year absence. This is our final projection for the 2013 BC Provincial Election, we have entered our projection into the 85 Club Contest on BC Votes 2013 website and are looking forward to testing our model. We will report on our projection results versus the actual results on Wednesday, after the election. Remember to get and vote. Regards, Chad Moats Owner

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Projection Changes from Update 2.0 Province wide % changes

Provincial Results BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 35 +1 37.3% +0.3% 46 -1 45.7% -0.3% 0 9.5% -0.1% 0 7.6% +0.1% 4 2.8% 85

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Regional changes since Week 3 Projection

Northern BC Seats Change Vote % Change Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % Change 18 +2 36.7% +2.9% BC Liberal 3 +1 38.4% +7.7% BC Liberal BC NDP 24 -2 44.1% -0.8% BC NDP 4 -1 41.6% -2.2% 0 - 8.2% +0.6% BC Green 0 - 5.7% -2.5% BC Green - 6.3% -2.3% BC Conservative 0 - 10.0% -2.6% BC Conservative 0 IND 2 - 2.4% IND 1 - 4.4% -0.2% Total 8 Total 44

Interior BC BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 10 +2 39.7% +3.9% 7 -2 38.9% -0.7% 0 - 5.9% -1.4% 0 - 9.7% -1.8% 1 - 1.9% -0.1% 18

Vancouver Island Seats Change Vote % Change BC Liberal 3 +1 29.2% +4.2% BC NDP 12 -1 47.6% -1.0% BC Green 0 - 15.1% -2.0% BC Conservative 0 - 6.7% -0.9% IND 0 - 1.4% -0.2% Total 15

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Constituency Level Results

Northern BC Nechako Lakes North Coast Peace River North Peace River South Prince George-Mackenzie Prince George-Valemount Skeena Stikine

BC Lib 43.5% 23.0% 33.2% 54.6% 41.5% 44.4% 23.8% 29.1%

BC NDP BC Green 31.9% 10.0% 60.8% 13.3% 14.0% 0.0% 30.1% 0.0% 36.1% 11.7% 39.1% 0.0% 57.7% 0.0% 53.2% 8.6%

BC Con Ind 9.7% 0.0% 8.7% 40.8% 12.3% 8.0% 13.0% 15.7% 6.6%

Interior BC Columbia River-Revelstoke Kootenay East Kootenay West Nelson-Creston Boundary-Similkameen Kelowna-Lake Country Kelowna-Mission Penticton Shuswap Vernon-Monashee Westside-Kelowna Cariboo-Chilcotin Cariboo North Fraser-Nicola Kamloops-North Thompson Kamloops-South Thompson Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack

BC Lib 27.9% 57.6% 16.2% 24.6% 39.3% 47.3% 54.0% 43.7% 38.5% 32.4% 53.9% 41.2% 34.0% 31.9% 45.4% 50.0% 27.7% 37.7%

BC BC NDP Green BC Con Ind 56.4% 8.5% 4.8% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% 79.7% 0.0% 0.0% 62.6% 10.0% 0.0% 41.5% 15.7% 0.0% 23.6% 8.8% 15.2% 25.3% 0.0% 17.2% 35.9% 0.0% 16.8% 28.9% 13.3% 15.1% 28.9% 18.0% 12.5% 28.8% 0.0% 14.6% 48.0% 8.0% 0.0% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 49.7% 8.3% 6.2% 43.2% 0.0% 7.0% 36.5% 0.0% 10.7% 44.9% 0.0% 22.0% 28.6% 11.1% 20.0%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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BC Liberal 44.3% 24.1% 33.4% 50.4% 43.8% 31.0% 35.0% 53.8% 25.5% 11.3% 14.0% 40.4% 41.5% 13.2% 51.4% 27.9% 29.0% 47.3% 48.2% 50.1% 32.3% 25.1% 37.9% 34.6% 46.3% 33.9% 21.5% 25.3% 39.9% 39.7% 47.3% 35.6% 19.2% 25.3% 20.6% 48.5% 8.1% 48.2% 60.3% 19.5% 38.8% 48.7% 62.3% 41.0% BC Conserv ative IND 8.1% 0.0% 42.2% 13.7% 10.7% 7.5% 12.1% 8.2% 0.0% 8.9% 12.4% 8.0% 8.7% 8.1% 8.6% 8.0% 7.5% 11.6% 0.0% 8.1% 7.6% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 7.6% 0.0% 8.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% 8.1% 53.8%

Lower Mainland BC Abbotsford-Mission Abbotsford South Abbotsford West Fort Langley-Aldergrove Langley Maple Ridge-Mission Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Surrey-Cloverdale Surrey-Fleetwood Surrey-Green Timbers Surrey-Newton Surrey-Panorama Surrey-Tynehead Surrey-Whalley Surrey-White Rock Delta North Delta South Richmond Centre Richmond East Richmond-Steveston Burnaby-Deer Lake Burnaby-Edmonds Burnaby-Lougheed Burnaby North Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Coquitlam-Maillardville New Westminster Port Coquitlam Port Moody-Coquitlam Vancouver-Fairview Vancouver-False Creek Vancouver-Fraserview Vancouver-Hastings Vancouver-Kensington Vancouver-Kingsway Vancouver-Langara Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena Vancouver-West End North Vancouver-Lonsdale North Vancouver-Seymour West Vancouver-Capilano West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

NDP 34.8% 30.1% 32.7% 30.4% 33.8% 47.9% 53.0% 35.7% 51.9% 73.5% 75.4% 41.8% 48.3% 77.3% 27.8% 52.0% 15.6% 31.4% 32.5% 27.8% 58.2% 61.4% 50.6% 47.2% 35.3% 53.9% 57.6% 63.8% 51.5% 45.4% 33.4% 47.1% 65.0% 57.4% 65.1% 34.8% 73.4% 36.7% 25.9% 66.0% 37.2% 27.8% 17.8% 25.5%

Green 11.4% 0.0% 8.1% 8.9% 8.9% 9.8% 8.7% 0.0% 8.7% 5.8% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% 8.4% 8.7% 8.1% 9.2% 10.0% 8.7% 7.9% 8.2% 11.4% 0.0% 6.6% 12.2% 17.0% 7.2% 12.5% 8.5% 5.4% 7.8% 16.2% 7.9% 12.3% 11.3% 10.3% 10.9% 0.0% 24.0%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Vancouver Island Alberni-Pacific Rim Comox Valley Cowichan Valley Nanaimo Nanaimo-North Cowichan North Island Parksville-Qualicum Esquimalt-Royal Roads Juan de Fuca Oak Bay-Gordon Head Saanich North and the Islands Saanich South Victoria-Beacon Hill Victoria-Swan Lake Powell River-Sunshine Coast

BC Liberal 25.6% 11.8% 26.1% 26.2% 25.6% 33.6% 50.8% 23.4% 27.0% 38.9% 40.5% 34.5% 19.1% 19.5% 29.4%

NDP 60.5% 57.1% 41.6% 46.6% 47.5% 52.4% 34.4% 51.3% 55.8% 31.1% 38.5% 40.5% 52.8% 51.3% 57.3%

Green 0.0% 18.7% 17.8% 15.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% 16.5% 19.7% 20.2% 13.3% 26.1% 19.7% 12.4%

BC Conservative 11.7% 10.0% 13.4% 10.1% 10.1% 11.8% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC Projection Analysis The FINAL: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection' s results has produced another small but effective BC Liberal surge. The results is a tighter race in most regions. The BC Liberals have managed to convert almost all their Swing Ridings (trailing by 5% or <) and Bubble Ridings (trailing by 5%-10%). These are the individual constituencies that can make or break an election., and the BC Liberals are currently winning the contest. However, the remaining Toss up seats will not be enough to overcome a BC NDP majority in our assessment.

Roundabout Communications BC Election 2013 10 Closest Ridings

1. Abbotsford West: 2. Surrey-Panorama: 3. North Vancouver-Lonsdale: 4. Saanich North and the Islands: 5. Boundary-Similkameen: 6. Kamloops-North Thompson: 7. Vernon-Monashee: 8. Cariboo North: 9. Prince George-Valemount: 10. Prince George-Mackenzie: BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 0.78% BC NDP lead over BC Liberal by 1.37% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 1.65% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 2.04% BC NDP lead over BC Liberal by 2.16% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 2.17% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 3.50% IND lead over BC Liberal by 4.43% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 5.28% BC Liberal lead over BC NDP by 5.41%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Methodology Roundabout Communications compiles a Poll of Polls for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout has divided our Poll of Polls into the following Regions of BC: Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North

Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).

Value of each poll used in projection

April 25,2013- Angus April 26,2013- Abacus April 30,2013- Forum May 2,2013- Insight May 2,2013- Angus May 2,2013- Ipsos May 7,2013- Oracle May 8,2013- Hill-Know lton May 8,2013- Forum May 9,2013- Ipsos May 9,2013 -Justason May 10,2013- Angus May 12,2013- Ekos May 13,2013 -Angus 812 1042 1055 855 808 1000 1000 804 1147 800 700 808 861 803

0 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.11 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 Value

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

Each poll's n , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elapsed since last day of most recent poll. A subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.025 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of each poll's N per week. Each week is prorated by number of days from the last day of the most recent poll . The algorithm is: (Weight of Poll's N Time Penalty ) x Weighting Factor= Real Weight This value is then applied to each poll for each poll's regional, where applicable, results. Applying Poll of Polls to Constituency Projections. Each Regional Poll of Polls is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of 1/3, with 2009 results being weighted at 2/3. The reasoning for having by-election results weighted lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. We feel 1/3 is reasonable. In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left their party since the 2009 election. There are currently 2 of those seeking to be re-elected as an Independent. They have been awarded 40% of their 2009 results as a member of their former party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. A high profile former BC Liberal has announced his intentions to run in Abbottsford West. He has been given 10% of the BC Liberal 2009 vote total.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Bonuses One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. We are interested to here, your suggestions for others that may qualify for a bonus. Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total Applied to all incumbents. Party Leader Bonus: +25% Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green) Star Candidate Bonus: +35% Applied to Langley(Conservative), Peace North (Independent) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green)

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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For Further Information Contact: Chad Moats,Owner

roundaboutcommunications@gmail.com

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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra