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Modern Magazine
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Index
Table Of Contents
1. Index Page 5
2. Introduction Page 7
3. Revisions Page 9
4. Preamble Page 21
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Introduction
Modern Magazine is a source of information and elucidation for interested
members of the society. It has striven to fulfill this need and continues to
endeavour to be a clear unabridged accounting of relevant issues of Modern
times.
It is with this in mind and in keeping with widely dispersed factors of world affairs,
that synthesis without denigration of important issues and items/sectors/relevant
segments, which we strive to communicate to others who may be able to further
evolve our place in relation to our strength.
The goal is still the interest of the individual, and the duty of the whole apparatus
of modern times is still to create a climate of prosperity and empowerment. Let
us not forget that all great politico‐socio and philological conspirators have given
rise to or have been given rise by irrelevancy of large portions of the strata of life
that culminated into relevant issues by which those very people were thus placed
beneath and subservient to remedies in contradiction to their very fibre and
essence.
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Revisions
These Revisions should act as a means of viewing issues as they are with a tinge of
the obfuscation they were allowed to carry their validity with. It should be where
merited be a judgment of the writer, and in turn a judgment on the protagonists,
and in turn a judgment of the actors of today which were not on the scene then.
In the article dated July 30, 1999, The Euro Hammer there is this paragraph:
“It would certainly not be the goal as they and everyone say, to let it become
anterior to the value of the Dollar; superior neither for superiority promulgates
trade protectionist measures, and mefeance. They would like it to be at an even
par or slightly better than the American Dollar. And it would make perfect sense.”
This has for all intents and purposes occurred with one differentializing item of
interest. While they are the same market pressures as they have not experienced
a regional meltdown in the tech sector.
world’s largest market, the United States. Not only did they peddle their wares in
the United States, increasingly they assembled them there as well.
American business responded in a number of ways. Some sought subsidy and tariff
protection from the U.S. government. Others became more efficient and de-
diversified—that is, they sold off many of their subsidiaries in unrelated industries.
They also reduced their labor forces in the United States and abroad, shedding layers
of management and laying off thousands of production workers. Rather than produce
the entire product within the firm, more and more work was outsourced—that is,
purchased from other businesses in the United States or abroad.
Foreign competition was not the only challenge business faced. Beginning in the
1960s and continuing in the 1970s, Americans demanded still more government
regulation of business. Reformers secured more than 100 laws to protect the
environment, ensure on-the-job safety, and guarantee employment opportunity
to women and minorities. New agencies were created such as the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration
(OSHA), and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to enforce
the new more stringent laws.
The 1980s, however, saw a reaction to increased governmental regulation. President Ronald Reagan
capitalized on the widely shared belief that government had become too intrusive. Deregulation, begun
in the airlines and public utilities, spread to other industries, notably banking and energy. Antimonopoly
cases in the courts all but disappeared. Government seemed to become more lenient with the realization
that American firms now had to compete with large and successful foreign businesses. Federal, state,
and local governments enacted tax cuts on both businesses and wealthy individuals to encourage
investment in American business.
They have not been imperilled by a crisis in the financial sector and their area of
i
trade hegemony is expanding, not contracting. (Read)
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At the same time, the U.S. has seen their completion drive the IMF into South
America with a vengeance, while the devaluation of the S.A.’s currency has
created several gigantic crises.
It is uncertain whether these are sound postures in an international market
economy, as it is ubiquitous and uncertain. Foreign interests will compete with
these, and with a high degree of probability simply rebuke them out of hand.
Their principle causes in casting them out of their realm of influence will either be
fear, or minimalized impression as to their ultimate objective: prosperity. It would
be far better had they engaged in an outward aggression…hostile or otherwise,
with this objective of proffering idea and cause, rather than simply selling greed.
Now it is too late as can be evinced by these vacuous vulgarities.
(Kojima, 2005)
At the centre of the accusation was the view that the IMF
had made a diagnosis based on the "60 years old"
economic model and issued an outdated prescription in
disregard of the structural and qualitative changes that had
taken place in the global economy. Critics noted that
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The U.S. is currently the largest IMF investor and this position
gives it the same de facto veto power as at the UN. This system
has become remote from global economic reality, just as the
UNSC is in dire need of reform. The IMF is unable to increase its
capital or to ask China to supply funds in proportion to the latter's
capacity to do so, due to a system that pegs member influence to
proportionate stake. In spite of a shortage of funds that prevents it
from playing its assigned role, the IMF cannot take either step,
because both would require members to readjust their stakes and
thus dilute their relative influence.
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(Mitchell, 1994) Instead, many entrants are existing firms that already operate businesses in
other product markets (Dunne, Roberts, and Samuelson, 1988) and are diversifying by
entering a new market, while many firms end their participation in a product market by selling
their businesses to other firms (Aldrich and Auster, 1986).
The problem is that this is double jeopardy, as the United States of America has
previously de‐diversified, and abandoned the Asian emerging markets when the
corrupt accounting practices melted down the Asian financial markets during the
Asian flu of 1997. This coincided with an interesting blip in monetary value and
High Technology production. But first let us examine what effect diversification
has upon emerging technologies, and diversified companies.
(Mitchell, 1994)Dissolution is likely to destroy some of the new capabilities that a business
introduced to the product market. Although other companies might have learned from the
entrants' experience, any organization-specific elements of the businesses' routines are lost.
By contrast, when a business is sold, capabilities are transferred to a new owner and
continue to be part of commercial practice (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Freeman, Carroll, and
Hannan, 1983; Wernerfelt, 1984). Business entry by start-up firms and diversifying entrants
and business exit by dissolution and divestiture thus play important roles in the introduction
and retention of capabilities within a product market.
Furthermore alarm bells should sound a clarion call within this respectful paradigm:
(Mitchell, 1994)Although other companies might have learned from the entrants' experience,
any organization-specific elements of the businesses' routines are lost.
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Their (the U.S.) monetary policy truly is “anterior to the value of the dollar”, for it
is””superior neither for superiority”. They (The EU) can also afford to proselytize
and invest in their own respective sphere of influence. Namely eastern Europe
and the far East without fear that it “promulgates trade protectionist measures”
Opposite to these concerns, the American financials have precipitated an spin off
of aggressive monetary policy, and reinvented a Adam Smith economic model of
protectionism against America, instead they have supplanted British shop keepers
for American shop keepers, and as well supplanted Asian shops for American
shops, doing themselves a great disfavor indeed. As can be seen in the historical
review of the Launch of the Euro, pre Euro monetary policy in Europe, the Asian
flu, and the information technology or high tech sector.
This information as seen in the document provided in PDF form entitles NSF
Trends In High Technology Industries revealed in a ubiquitous fashion data to this
effect. In chapter or bookmark High‐Technology Industries the numbers were
extrapolated. What informations reveal are a time period tantamount to a blip as
delineated. This blip shows the impact stratagem and confirmative prevalence of
U.S. involvement.
NSF Trends In High
Technology Economie
(Asia’s Rising, 2007) Growth was largest in 1996 to 2000
with $2 600 478 Asia had a growth in that period of
$247 165 (2000) $338 797 (1996) for a total
within that period of $585 962 million (1997)
Dollars. EU15 had a growth in that period of
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$169 558 (2000)
$216 794 (1996) for a total within that period of
$386 352 million (1997) Dollars.
Growth from any other time period was by and large static
But from 2000 to 2003
Asia had a growth in that period of
$378 080 (2000)
$338 797 (1996) for a total within that period of
$716 877 million (1997) Dollars.
EU15 had a growth in that period of
$222 000 (2000)
$216 024 (1996) for a total within that period of
$438 024 million (1997) Dollars
As is observable the accelerated growth of new technology and lax monetary
policy in Asia (The cause of the Asian flu) created the greatest growth. It is
therefore no coincidence the world share at this exact time was the sole instance
Both Asia and EU15 grew. This is further enforced by the general growth which
continues at a steady rate minus the continual acceleration of growth in the
United States and without maintenance of the share of world value added. It was
here where monetary policy was more stable, static, and countervailed by
investment in new technology and combined with competitive retention of new
technology.
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For confirmation of this see table 17 highlighted by MM. It would be a mistake to
assume this is due to the EU 15 retaining their technological resource because it
was wise of them. It is more likely they have failed to take advantage of the
previous highlighted graph, due to the monetary policy effective upon market
share and affected by competition with the American dollar. This trend will reach
a tipping point, if it doesn’t cease in other aspects altogether of the economy.
If this was false, the EU would not be the only region left out of the cold.
This is a reapportioning of the flux of either growth or diminution. By observing
the growth period at issue of the parameters of this economy observations
conclusions grant ascendency of a European model, or an American model of
economy. As observed in the percentile share of world total the U.S. has had after
an initial growth of rapid accession to the forefront of initial innovation, a
transitory to a static growth. Yet the total output has continued to grow by 511
316 in 2003 from 426 802 in 2000 for a total accrued ascendency of 938 118. Far
more than the EU. Yet the indicator of growth or shrinkage is a reapportioning of
percentile which is a diminution of the European Model.
China has also seen a comparable growth to that of the U.S. model. This affects
the stability and viability of a market to handle new technology and to expand
companies holdings, and profit as well as all operable integers within its economic
strategy. This triangulation of political, economic, and technological has spurred
one of the three far in advance than the others. However only in this
reapportioning, China has grown a total of 7.9 percent in its share (of world total).
Why?
The years of growth for the EU has been solely exclusive to the years surrounding
the Asian Flue of 1996 to 2000. The only exceptions are Singapore and Malaysia.
However the total growth has not diminished. The direct correlation is
unavoidable: investment slowdowns in Asian democracies have been cut off due
to the market abuses in Asian democracies, or emerging democracies.
This removes multinational firms based out of either the U.S. from the picture, as
well as those based in the EU community.
Without investment or implication, the abandonment has left both models in
abandoned flux, with no prospect of entering into the greatest emerging market
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of all. It is for this reason alone we have witness a drain of the Western tech
sector, since their sole produce is innovation and new technologies. These
however are not based upon creative production of new founded business but
rather simply because of productivity as in “productivity in durable‐goods
manufacturing apart from computers, and in the manufacturing of non‐durable
goods, actually grew more slowly in the most recent period than during the
"slowdown" years of 1972‐95” as related in the Modern Magazine issue of July
30, 1999 The Need For A New Regulatory Board.
This has also been reflected in the stability of these economic models, for
productivity is linked to production and incorporation of production. The
disastrous scenario which our leaders have not had the foresight to avoid is the
loss of Jobs due to our isolation and usages of our own advancements and the
breaking of business routines due to our own cannibalization, and the
advancements of the Dictatorial system of China.
This storm will have to be weathered by the most contiguous and best positioned
economic model, which can weather and increase when others fail.
As it happened during the Asian Flu, the European Union will advance when the
U.S. can no longer sustain competitive levels of production and all nations are
producing at great volume. These are technological. They are as is said, much less
of more of a economic than a technological paradigm.
Or if one wishes to engage in the arcane or reverse Integration; either difference
necessitates reintegrating business models within sound economic policy. Yet this
is hard to see‐‐‐how this can occur beyond a tipping point.
We will know this tipping point will have precipitated all engagements once there
is a huge spike in unemployment with interest rates already at unsustainably low
levels. Monetary policy cannot at this point re‐equilibrialize trade imbalances or
investitural exuberance without repatriative progress in these respective sectors.
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And while countries vie for competitive rates with the mighty dollar, the Euro can
act from a high ground both of inner stability, stability of their side of the
“globalization triangle” and lower prices of their competitors, before and after
being ravaged by Dollar competitiveness. “And it would make perfect
sense.”….with or without Africa.
Although some components would appear at face value not to be of immediate
issue, one would be able to compare the changes in the American interest rate
policy, the burgeoning trade deficits, and the lack of Asian rebound as a happy
coincidence Or maybe an unhappy one ?
In the issue of Modern Magazine July 30, 1999 The need For A New Regulatory
Board, the following
In the edition of the economist it was remarked recently that ‘the improvement in
moored productivity since the mid 1990s is surprisingly, extraordinarily,
concentrated in one small sector of the high‐tech economy: computer
manufacturing. Robert A. Gordon, a Professor of Economics at Northwestern
University and one of America’s leading authorities on productivity, has carefully
broken down the aggregate numbers. He finds that, as prices collapsed,
productivity growth in computer‐manufacturing improved at a staggering 42 % a
year between the fourth quarter of 1995 and the first quarter of 1999. Even
though computer manufacturing is just 1.2% of America’s output, that
improvement was big enough to cover the figures for the whole of the private
non‐farm economy. Indeed allowing for other factors as well, productivity in
durable‐goods manufacturing apart from computers and in the manufacturing
non‐durable foods, actually grew more slowly in the most recent period than
during the ‘slowdown’ years of 1972‐95”
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PREAMBLE
In reality is that the usage of financing for American companies have begun to
break, and will continue to be undermined. These take the form of many
functions, such as the primary devaluation, reacquisitions, inventiveness, and
creative fudging around with sound orthodox business practices by financial
institutions. These cause inherent weakness in the market, and the economic
model itself is to blame.
America cannot exist in a financial deficit or vacuum all of its own making, and call
it reality, whilst ignoring its deficits, unless these new market practices are built
about the foundation of wealth. No country can enact financial institutions which
effectuate this, then, centering upon these institutions borrowing to sustain
companies that do not really compete, but rather exist out of principle.
This is not money; this is hubris, to think America alone can counter its own
economic model. They camouflage and hide it.
There has been an incredible fixation with this leading economic indicator. Indeed
it borders on mania. It was in fact warned by the federal Bank chairmen Alan
Greenspan that mania or irrational exuberance would burst a bubble, yet there is
one caveat which must be mentioned. This caveat seems to be a small detail yet it
plays a giant role if one considers the implications to integrity. “Is it really
irrational, or is it just investitural exuberance.” Clearly, there was and there is as is
attested by action, the need for a new regulatory beard.
In the following passage
Different times lend it to different strategies, and modes change. As good
example as to how this can occur is the very of global economy itself, with every
nation feeling the brunt of every other nations prosperity and woes. A further
examining upon basic trade principle will lend a solution to many problems, but
diversification through divestiture and appropriations will create a situation
where all schema of future action is seen under a microscope of further market
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expansionary possibility. It is a quagmire that in good times are borne corrupt
practices saluted by the rich, yet condemned by the poor, in all times. It is clear,
that aside from productivity levels rising, and people blaming job losses on robots
and computers, the Global Economy must be run by sober men. And intelligent
men, and men with integrity. The questions is, how do poor people in bad times,
have a voice, when the vacuum they inhabit is filled with productivity minded
CEOs with only their portfolios to judge them THIS IS WHY WE NEED A NEW
REGULATORY BOARD, (RIMERIME) Reverse Minor Repression Of Integration
Microeconomics “a small company being newly placed under the umbrella of a
larger company, would be able to see if it will encounter difficulties…”. This is the
single most imperiling item in our country today. We must realize that economies
function apart from the prosperity of a few, and the tranquility of the many. We
must realize as is delineated perfectly in the following passage, that
More than considerations purely of shareholders, this also encompasses company
profits through expansions in cross industries as per conglomerates are
resourcefully capable of.
We have seen this put before us in crystal clear manner during the past year. We
are still imperiled, and the danger lies not only in a few, but the many, who invest
in these companies, without regard, to how they received their capital, both
outwardly and inwardly, both in the first party, and the second instance.
In the article dated Modern Magazine July 15, 1998 Economic Controlling
Interests. I referred to the need for a new definition of protectionism. The Bush
administration seemingly doesn’t quite see things from the same point of view as
they have become overtly aggressionist rather than protectionist. In fact, they
have not only changed the manner in which they protect themselves in a Global
Economy, but they have reinvented the term imperialist as well, and invented the
term proterrorist economy. A proterrorist economy is the kind where all citizens
are aware of the terrorist threat while protecting their interest rates from the
government, enjoin in a world war, with only America fighting it, and watching it
on TV while Coke flashes commercials as the official sponsor. (This does not bode
well since the last official mascot of Coke was the Polar bears, and we know what
fate awaits them.)
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Seriously however, and I wish I could be, but let’s revert to a previous time
momentarily.
In a Global Economy however, protectionism has been seen as outdated. Perhaps
it is, but at least, if something does go wrong, it will arguably be a shield. Or is it
that it is to be changed as a strategy, like everything else must adopt new styles
and approaches. Perhaps this is the key to proper monetary policy. Perhaps large
sweeping strategies never really reach their full relevant practice.
Perhaps conflicts and hurdles are overcome with a little protectionism, a little
proactivity, a little free trade regulation. Something like the carrot before the stick
or the carrot after the stick. But these are conspiracy theories. Actually, we have
practices hostile acts of overbearing financial gamesmanship with serious
objectives, and found the future waiting for us to respond with qualitative
investing. It was never built into the equation how three separate economies,
closely linked together could be split apart by three geographical heterogeneous
zones of trade, and three separate monetary Units. These are the Yen, the Euro,
and the American Dollar. Unfortunately we never saw the future of the impact t
of the Yuan, and how it would force the Japanese to purchase Euros, in order to
defend itself from a competing market for good, the failure of the Americans to
purchase more expensive Japanese goods, and how these would devaluate the
dollar, whilst keeping the parity with it endures if only temporaneously, with the
American Dollar, and all competitions which it suffers in this troika struggle of
currencies.
Clearly, those were different times, but the idea of a new form of protectionism
makes more sense than ever. It is why as clearly demonstrated by the events of
September 11 2001, that the best sense is within your own hemisphere. The
carrot can only be the lead of the donkey if the elephant likes carrots too, and
with such vacillations in political drama (as expressed in the conclusion) it is hard
to see how the U.S. can ever lead us into prosperity, if we do not allow our own
hemisphere to like us.
Fast track was once the answer, now a new style of protectionism is the only
answer, protect the American political house, but having a consensus, and be
prospering within our own hemisphere.
The next article of January 23 2000, Financiers Finance Ministers in Regulatory
Board‐‐‐Bribe Denied, Modern Magazine shows clearly, how
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detached the various politicians, and Regulatory Boards were, for indeed, “How
laissez faire must one be before one becomes a derelict.”
It is quite unconscionable. It reminds me of the movie Once upon a Time I The
West when Tucow is trying to get the name on the grave and he says , except we
could say it now his way, it’s over for you now oh cruel fate just when we finally
have the big fishes the World Trade Centre was blown up.
The following developments with WorldCom etc., and the loss of most of the
value of AOL Time Warner, have gotten quite frivolous. There have been few
examples in economic times where uncharted waters proved truly uncharted.
We desperately need to find a man who can lead us, and very soberly, into the
next Global upswing, since the reality of colleges and universities seems to only
grant capitalization through reams of credit and financing.
An article on MSNBC summarized this perfectly, when it elucidated the benefits of
productivity. In this article, they described how America was going to get out of
this recession because the ingenuity of small companies allowed them to export,
more goods, and reduce costs‐‐‐they failed to mention the adverse effects such as
trade deficits, incompatible exchange rates, artificial interest rates, out of their
order financing, and stagnated wages.
Many years ago, back in the 1950s, people were proud to work in order to
accomplish a goal that had never been achieved before. This goal was to own land
or a home, and be self reliant, even affluent. This was in the backdrop of two
th
world wars, and in the 19 century. Now we have accomplished this, yet no one
seems to notice the reliance on financing, and the stagnation of the job market
for the students who have a much greater opportunity. Accomplishing this seems
to be redundant, but it is an attitude that is far worse, it is being relinquished to
th
the past, and subservient to a future which is the past‐‐‐not much unlike the 19
century, when people suffered for freedoms to change, to be as equal as the
upper classes. What aspirations art her today. Who are our leaders, what
standards are there, where is the excellence. The economy without leaders will
languish in mediocrity and status quo.
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Integral
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Modern Magazine July 30, 1999
The Euro Hammer
The day which the European countries decided to get together, and
make a union out of their great nations has been quite the change. For
ever and forever is a long time, they have been at each other’s throats
as vying competitors for regional and pan European superiority and
hegemony. Now since the modern age, it as been possible, and after
two world wars as a result of their dignity, perhaps lessons have been
learned. The Euro pan community.
Illusions need not be made concerning the Euro. A monetary unity is
only as good as the policy behind it. But I have no doubt the
Europeans can find the people who are able to steer it in the right
directions. Would it not be an interesting observation to make
however, that since its inception, they have indeed seemingly missed
a step, by letting it drop from beyond the scope they wanted its
range in respect to its value vis a vis the American Dollar. So much so
that The Japanese have had to intervene by buying into it and sell off
American values to prop it up.
The Euro has however, only been in existence for a short time.
A few months of life is no time at all to see what can be a
expected from a new progeny. It would not be any stretch of
conclusion to think they are watching to see what other
nations policies will be, and also, what actions would be taken
if it were to fluctuate in various respects.
It would certainly not be the goal as they and everyone say, to let
it become anterior to the value of the Dollar; superior neither for
superiority promulgates trade protectionist measures , and
mefeance. They would like it to be at an even par or slightly
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better than the American dollar. And it would make perfect sense.
Having this accomplished, they will be able to utilize its stability
rendering effect for practices of trade as the Europeans are always a
great hub, between the West and the East. It will in essence help to
shape the changing of European trading practices, and approaches.
Profiling from this, great strides could be made to expand
relationships with Eastern developing nations including perhaps
Africa. This would benefit the regions concerned along with Europe
itself.
Now however, we enter a new stage. A good indication of the
practice they will employ to rectify the Euros position is the present
day situation in the European community. Although what happens on
the the international scene is secondary, it will always be an interest
to Europe's proud nations. Perhaps they will indeed, finally become
less reliant on the United States Of America. But of Primary issue is
the cause of trades and domestic economies. Indeed, they will not be
able to follow through with the vision of a better stronger Europe
when both the European union whose reliant greatly on its principal
project the Euro fail to be realized. It will thus be a necessity to build
the Euro to the place where it was first envisioned at its inception.
We have to remember that it was not a prognoses of the value it
would hold; it was in fact a mark to set from which it would be of
value to the world markets, and then the markets themselves. This
is now a priority. We can expect that in the week or two ahead,
there will be a tightening up on trading approaches, which will
send a signal to the rest of the world that the Euro is a sound
investment. This in turn will say the same of the countries who
espouse the euro as their currency. On top of being a necessity for
its success, it also has to be a source of desire for the United
Kingdom, which as yet has to adopt it as their currency.
Needless to say, the American dollar will be caught in a
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bind, which will force the federal bank in the United States of
America, to increase interest rates, to offset the demand placed
upon the yen to buy American dollars to keep the Euro from
assailing it on both sides.
For the present, the managing of the Euro is not too much far
sweeping change, but later we will start to see the effects of
greater influence. Due to its stabilizing effect. The Europeans will
be able to venture into areas of finance and investment, which
they were not able to as individual units. This will open doors
unheretofore opened in the Asian markets. If, this were to
coincide with the rebounding economies in Asia, then it could
spell great competition for American interests in the region.
The competition could become fierce, and furious, and fast paced. If,
on the other hand it does not coincide with a rebound of Asian
economies it will necessitate the modifications and different
remedies. One such remedy could be stages of assistance and policies
of favor for developing countries. The Europeans would see that even
if Americans find it difficult to freely invest as before in Asia (due to
the lack of regulation) it would be good for them to create liquidity for
investment to be possible. Under proper management and
adjustment, it could in turn even send the Euro considerably stronger
in relation to the American dollar. Then the Americans would have to
buckle down which means lower interest rates to minimize trade
losses and increase investment at home. This could hasten any
protectionist views which are bound to come as it did in the booming
80s. That was when the U.S. saw great trade deficits with Japan.
Compared to then, the U.S. will have to deal with a slew of other Asian
countries not just one. Isolationism in that case would in deed and
practice, be wise.
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Modern Magazine July 30, 1999
The Need For A New Regulatory Board
Many years have passed since the market economies of the world saw
a unified system which brought all various parts into homogenized
control. Have they returned now. What differences may be present to
make us wonder at whether or not it actually is a global economy. The
main idea which springs to mind is, the presence of economic systems
world‐wide, not only in Europe with a hub in America, not only in Asia
with a hub in Japan etcetera. What is this global system.
One perfect example of this is the selling off of gold. Another
example is the selling off of oil, which since then has been rectified
somewhat for the most part. These were unthinkable 20 years ago.
All this furthermore, has been done within the midst of uncertainly
and a brewing turmoil, with half the world believing the worst is
over, and the other half, not yet over.‐‐‐I don't have to say that for
those who believe the worst is not over, the once better times are
getting worst even still. Those who invest are always positive. But
why sell Gold reserves, and over supply the market with your
practically unique form of principal revenue. .
Plainly, this is unsettling. It doesn't take the head of the American
Central Bank to make the economies of the world hot action tepid to
see it. But what is it that is brewing. Is it really irrational, or is it just
investitural exuberance. It would be silly to say it is both. Investors will
always invest, and the cautious will always side with the leaders of
various intuitions when they warn them of impending doom. Recently
"Other OPEC countries are said to be nervous about oil prices
rising
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above $21 a barrel. Why would OPEC countries worry about oil
prices getting too high? Some fear that higher prices will make oil
reserves elsewhere more profitable to produce ‐‐creating more
competition from non‐OPEC producers.
'The thinking is that there is some price point that will keep new
production from coming ostreum,' said Bill O'Grady, and oil industry
analysts at A.G. Edwards. 'The guess OPEC is making is that below
$20 a barrel, new production is not going to come ostreum quickly.'
In fact, the industry is in the midst of consolidation that is expected to
make the remaining major oil companies more efficient ‐‐and make
large oil reserves profitable at levels far below $20 a barrel.
'They are beginning to see themselves as competitors with the large
OPEC government‐controlled oil companies,' said O'Grady. 'So part
of this merger mania is an attempt to get big enough where they
can drive their marginal production cost to levels now seen by
Saudi's ARAMCO and other government‐controlled oil companies.'
Oil prices have also fallen as the threat of an oil dumping action by U.S.
government has eased. A coalition of independent producers calling
itself Save Domestic Oil filed a petition with the Commerce Department
two weeks ago claiming that Iraq, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela
are illegally selling crude oil at unusually low prices on U.S. markets.
But big oil companies opposed the action, and administration
officials have offered only lukewarm support. If pursued, those
claims could have added several dollars in tariffs to oil prices
in the U.S., helping to support higher prices worldwide."
In the edition of The Economist it was remarked recently
P a g e | 32
that "The improvement in measured productivity since the mid 1990s
is surprisingly, extraordinarily, concentrated in one small sector of the
high‐tech economy: computer manufacturing Robert Gordon, a
professor of economics at Northwestern University and one of
America's leading authorities on productivity, has carefully broken
down the aggregate numbers. He finds that, as prices collapsed,
productivity growth in computer‐manufacturing improved at a
staggering 42% a year between the fourth quarter of 1995 and the
first quarter of 1999. Even though computer manufacturing is just
1.2% of America's output, that improvement was big enough to move
the figures for the whole of the private non‐farm economy. Indeed,
allowing for other factors as well, productivity in durable‐goods
manufacturing apart from computers, and in the manufacturing of
non‐durable goods, actually grew more slowly in the most recent
period than during the "slowdown" years of 1972‐95.
and says Robert Gorden "the productivity performance of the
manufacturing sector of the United States economy since 1995 has
been abysmal rather than admirable. Not only has productivity
growth in non‐durable manufacturing decelerated in 1995‐99
compared to 1972‐95, but productivity growth in durable
manufacturing stripped of computers has decelerated even more."
It has been remarked several times by Alan Greenspan " innovations
in information technology...have begun to alter the manner in which
we do business and create value, often in ways that were not readily
foreseeable even five years ago." This shows that there is a
prevalent mood which goes roundabout towards the expansion of
the boom in the United States Of America. But even they say that
this is temporary. The important thing to note would be what
resolution do they have in mind. It would seem that they believe it
will be as is reflected in the following statement spoken
P a g e | 33
by Secretary of Commerce William M.
Daley
National Trade Education Tour
June 7, 1999
Louisville, Kentucky (As prepared for delivery)
"To be honest, too many people are wary about trade. In fact,
recent polls say 60 percent of Americans do not believe it is good
for jobs. They see our trade deficit soaring ‐‐because of a
slowdown in world growth ‐‐and they are afraid. They see people
losing jobs, sometimes because of trade and sometimes not.
But, who are you going to blame if you lose your job? You are
not going to blame a robot ‐‐or technology. You blame trade.
We need to shift gears. We need a new public approach to trade
and to build a pro‐trade majority in this country. If we don't, I
worry the trade deficit will spawn protectionist pressures that
will prevent us from opening new markets, whether in China,
Latin America or Europe.
So, we are going around the nation to talk up trade with normal
people ‐‐people outside of Washington. Our message is simple:
"Trade Globally, Prosper Locally." We want every man, woman and
child in America, in every community to understand what this means".
Yet is there a possibility that the world's economies will diversify
further into more elaborate or less obvious areas of their
economic interests, and take an approach unheretofore taken.
P a g e | 34
Different times lend itself to different strategies, and modes change. A good
example as to how this can occur is the very nature of a global economy itself;
with every nation feeling the brunt of every other nations prosperity or woes. A
further expanding upon basic trade principal will lend a solution to may
problems, but diversification through divestitature and appropriations will
create a situation where all schema of future action is seen under a microscope
of further market expansionary possibility: In an article by Walter Russell Mead
"Investors who bought Coca‐Cola last July, when shares were trading at a peak
of 55 times earnings, thought they were betting on Coca‐Cola's formidable
marketing and management skill and the prospects of big sales gains in Asia
and elsewhere. They were, in part ‐‐but to succeed, Coca‐Cola must have the
freedom to convert its earnings in yuan, rupiah, and won into dollars at
market‐exchange rates and then repatriate those dollars. This makes an
investment in Coca‐Cola more of a bet ‐‐a much riskier one ‐‐ on the health of
the world order than on the company alone. "
Sec 1
This would needless to say, be a situation which would feed upon
itself for the short term, and almost in essence be a tool which could
be employed to secure profits before matters get worst. Needless to
say this would be in the form of a correction which although far
short of a crash makes people who are unwary poor. Well, too bad
for them I suppose, far be it from me to say who can and cannot
make money. It also would bring about a form of glory seeking,
where certain parties though not colluding with each other would all
to much know what his neighbor is up to. Now I do not mean this to
be interpreted as neighbor as in foreign neighbor, I am talking about
Corporations and Conglomerates, who can in this day and age due
to liquidity and multi‐disciplinary investments portfolios, have a day
to day effect on markets, and stock exchanges in specific.
P a g e | 35
Further dwelling upon the mechanism of these dynamics would be
unnecessary and simplistic. It would appear to be sufficient to make
this point with a caveat being those who shape the present day
economy through influencing aspects of the market put themselves
into a position of danger and possible detriment. However, a global
adjustment rests upon the known fact, that markets will take some
time to react, in a homogenate, and by then further modifications can
be made to shelter the company which began the movement. I do not
have to name names, they know who they are.
Ergonomically‐‐‐‐far be it from back support, the curve fitiing
apparatus to performance and stability, lends a helping hand to
qualified sectors, which them profit greatly from changing modes of
operation, to make up for whatever perceptible problems arise.
The only question which then need be asked is, how profitable is
it to make some aspects of the markets stronger, and others
weaker. Now, the first born of a global market entity symbiosis is
put into the world. I would not be surprised if we do not see one
of these made into existence within the next six to twelve
months.
You may ask yourself: How do I recognize one of these, what
appearance might they have, who are they akin to. Very interesting
questions. All one can do is look for the signs to be revealed. This is
not the end of the world by increments, nor a newer world order in
advance of the present one which has not yet reared its abominable
imperialist head, rather is a tool to be utilized by the hungry CEO
who wished to leave his place in the world for better days to come.
As a result of the nature of people.; motivation of greed
vindictiveness selfishness, and resentfulness not to mention
opportunism, corporations who are not related from other
corporation half way around the world, will want to take heed of
fluctuations occurring on a day to day basis.
P a g e | 36
Others do not wish for their own reasons to participate in these
affairs, and as a result a new form of monitoring power will have to
be implemented. This should operate somewhat like that which
governs the stock exchanges of the world, ensuring trading practice
and their counterpart. Will remain for the time honest and clean.
This means that someone along the way will break the rules.
More than considerations purely of shareholders, this also
encompasses company profits through expansions in cross
industries as per conglomerates are resourcefully capable of. Also,
there is the continual concern of liquidity which also would be
assisted by the former. Did you buy shares in that company ? be
forewarned they're out there‐‐‐somewhere‐‐‐they always are.
Whenever a complicated system of precautionary measures and loss
modifications are put in place, one can only wonder if life will ever be
the same again. CEO's will be getting up before dawn and questioning
their performance not in the boardroom but on the portfolio
management of their respective companies investment. As can be seen
in
Sec 2
This has never before been seen. Will the trickle downness
which will lend itself to such a system be good for us, will it
actually trickle down. How much so
When we call in some stock purchases we will ask the advisor if he
knows anything. But we are not all involved in a solitary investment
mode‐‐‐we rarely are. The country's themselves are going to have to
navigate through this mesh mash world and see their way through it.
I do not have to harp upon the overused phrase of Goepoliticks, and
I will never use the word Real Politick again for it does not become
us‐‐‐ever. Practical though we are we are going to have to navigate
through a situation not unlike that at the onset of the great
P a g e | 37
depression‐‐‐this time without he depression‐‐‐reverse minor
repression of integration micro economics. Analyze the phrase and
you've got the answer. In short: reverse the effects which the
economic investitatures of companies be profitable for them in
relation to the people who are trying to make it. As a result of the lack
of great change which accompanies any boom and bust which used to
occur in the cycles of expansions, booms, and depressions, and busts
with their accompanying repositioning of practices and goal
alignments with shifting reality; the international biodiversity of
investment opportunities render the companies who drive those
economies behavior are in themselves part of the lack of growth for
people. (Reverse minor repression of international micro economics).
That being nebulously said I will add to the greatly verbiaged concept
that it will mean as a result that countries will be less independent in
choosing their way because they will no longer be able to rely as
much on their intermediary companies and corporations.
Some can afford to ignore these threats. The United States Of
America doesn't need to worry too much, about being shut out of
impending trade practice, they have good people working to keep it
that way. Others also have good people. And they will keep their
interest in good working order. It is not a matter of catastrophe to
say beware.
Also when life becomes more difficult the tough get going, but
where can they go. A leopard cannot change its spots, and an
antelope can jump high, but can't lose its horns. This is not Zoology
101 but it is survival of the fittest as never heretofore seen. Do we
have confidence in our countries management skills. Can we afford
to go on without making specific preparations. surely not. Even as
we speak preparations are being made.
We have all seen the changes take place in Europe, leading the way
for a North American European, Asian Triangle which will be
P a g e | 38
inescapable. This was done when the European union adopted the Euro
common currency. Other countries are talking about common
currencies also such as the one in the U.S. Are there any plans in Asia.
Hong Kong has been assimilated with China, China didn't feed the goose
that lays the golden egg to its regionally aspirant dedicated class.
Clearly work is being done more and more to work more and more
together. How far will they get before it actually becomes a part and
parcel of every day business. It is for that reason that we must all be
prepared to deal with it with the best equipment we can have.
Modern Magazine July 15, 1998
Economic Controlling Interests
It seems that whenever economic changes take place, someone has to
pay the consequences somewhere else. What exactly the factors are
that make this a realistic happenstance, recurring through time and all
market fluctuations, are revealed post haste rather than preventively.
It has been seen that this is much more grave when it occurs, at a
time of the people themselves. The Asia flue, now most likely
P a g e | 39
all out depression, has become, something from which we will
pay resources time and effort, with personal incomes donated
and lost along the way. Are there not men who are able to
foresee this, and prepare us better, for it. Yes, and some have,
and some have not.
P a g e | 40
Whenever we reach a situation of crises; that is the time we put
into place plans that will more a or less alleviate the problem,
but sometimes, the plans are too late, and the wake up call,
although it has been commanded, was not heard.
The handling of monetary policy is underestimated in
importance. The nations which have good economies, find it plays
second fiddle to other market policies, while it is the reverse, for
countries whose economies aren't doing well.
This is due to the resources which the respective economies expunge,
and furthermore, they become either stagnant in the case of
struggling economies, unable to readjust quickly, and complacent in
the case of well profiting nations, who do not act in a way conducive
to other countries trading opportunities. In a way, in a simplified
sense, this could be blamed upon, capitalism‐‐‐and say that central
government, systems would render this form of competition inactive
as of itself not being competitive minded; but real politick speaking,
and realistically speaking, it is individual interest, and greed; not
economic systems: when all is said and done, we are responsible for
the chickens coming home to roost. Other questions: how much
foresight is necessary, to what extent must other nations involved
take the blame, where does all this bring us to in order to set things
back on track.
P a g e | 41
Why don't the goals include helping a region of the country
that's in recession?
Often enough, some state or region is going through a recession of
its own while the national economy is humming along. But the Fed
can't concentrate its efforts to expand the weak region for two
reasons. First, monetary policy works through credit markets, and
since credit markets are linked nationally, the Fed simply has no way
to direct stimulus to any particular part of the country that needs
help. Second, if the Fed stimulated whenever any state had
economic hard times, it would be stimulating much of the time, and
this would mean higher inflation
As seen in the document above, written by
Ronald Labonte PhD Communitas Consulting Adjunct Professor,
Central Queensland University
There is a naive commodity in economic theory and application,
today, on each hand; not the ones adopting their views, but the
ones listening to them, and not the ones implementing them but the
ones for developing them with a sense of detached ignorance of real
application. In essence, realpolitiks isn't the culprit, it is political
reality.
There are occasion when a different approach is necessary, and at
times essential. The European Community (EU) has seen this or at
least, responded as much according to this principle. This is yet
another system which has been developed too facilitate stability, in
their respective monetary policy. We do not have that in Canada.
The stretched out nature of the Canadian economy, places
emphasis on technology and computing. However, if the
stretched
P a g e | 42
segments, become threatened all at once, what monetary policy can
give it back its vigour. Countries have long depended on rocks of
stability and certitude to help it plough along; in depending on the
guarantied growth of the market of technology, Canada has made it
impossible to focus on any region or segment, as a whole, to
stabilize it.
Sec 2
The necessary changes brought about by NAFTA and GATT and WTO,
are reflective only of the undeveloped properties of the closed markets
of North America. The real productive nature of Monetary
harmonization however, is what constitutes binds that tie, into a stable
trading relationship, one that can weather any geopolitical storm, since
the troubles that can be worked out in any case are not closed, they are
already open by the very nature, of a secure, non possibility of
individual lack of depresionary remedies.
P a g e | 43
Ask them, what significance the Euro has and why, it has been
developed, ask them, why the NAFTA and GATT really do not
produce any links to excessive pooling of resources, why they felt it
was necessary to adopt this, in lieu of developed nations, being the
source of resources for less developed nations. Why Huge markets,
grow with free trade with small markets, and why it is not the exact
reverse and opposite, that small underdeveloped markets do not grow
out of protectionist, anti resource procurement, from larger developed
markets, rather less procurement, necessitating their own self reliance.
The First born of a Global Market Entity symbiosis has come to light
upon our corporate landscape. Now we can be given all the
benefits which we had been promised for years in the Information
Superhighway.
When AOL Merged with Time Warner there was a global market
entity born which will be truly an entity on its own terms. The
vastness of this new reaching entity will traverse the landscape of
nations like a brush fire on a bone dry, parched prairie, crossing
over any impediments of borders which the Global Market has in its
way. The end result will not be negated by any competition which
has in its interest to do so as it would shoot itself in the 80s style
vehicle of market interests‐‐‐the gouchie shoes.
Now Time itself will become transparent. It will open itself up to
regulatory boards and controlling interests, in order to give a
semblance of perpetuity to its market share. In the long run, this
will only be a form of subsidiary, a token ramp from which
crippled corporations will gain access to the Multimedia apertures
of broadband technology services.
There can be no valid argument made about the value of such a
company. Information is something which lends itself to all men in
all nations. It also must be given to them freely, without fear of
loss of status or bearing upon those who disseminate it. Clearly
the expansion of the Internet does this to a great degree. There is
no opposition to this and so it will be approved of by all regulatory
interests.
P a g e | 45
This doesn't however, say that there is no effect upon the
perception of concerned entities to the existence into the world of
such an entity. It has been said that often the first born sets the
temper of the house in a form of the parents who brought it into
existence. This therefore should say a lot about the financial
authorities who have signed off on precluding it from any of the
bounds set forth by apparatus in place. This to me is precedent
setting. As a result clarification will be needed as to the notions of
interest various regulatory boards hold to on this matter.
There does not appear to be any serious comment coming from
elected officials on this theme. Indeed, there had been immediate
voicing of the deal of media infringement on the free press through
the mechanism of Anti‐Trust, but nothing else. This to me, seems to
indicate that they are missing the point entirely, or that they have
such faith in their institutions that they cannot even cast a side
glance at the extrapolation which need be as a natural result of
major events.
I for myself can see no reason why they may not state their
preference for a certain outcome one way or the other either
approval of or disapproval of , said merger. This to me would not
be a conflict of government powers with capitalist democratic
freedom. This latter is for certain.
There does not appear to be any serious approbation of the limits to
which such conglomerate corporate activities can proclavicate. Indeed,
there is the talk of the precedent setting nature of mega mergers
through which time may cast a dissuading eye.
It is not time we have to fear however.
There have been occasions when corporations have merged in one
form or another in the past. These forms be it corporate
P a g e | 46
restructurings, including mergers and acquisitions, divestitures,
spin‐offs, joint ventures, leveraged buyouts, bankruptcy
reorganizations and workouts, and recapitalizations. They have
been advantageous to some disadvantageous to others. Rarely have
they been the sort of affair where all the nations of the region of
trade influence held their breath and ameliorated their portfolios to
take advantage of or minimize its contagion. Now we wait as the
mega corporations slip into conglomerates whose time is dedicated
to the amelioration of single products because they all fall within
the scope, of a sheltering umbrella. I am not referring to a product
as per a brand of a product, but rather a product for the very nature
of multinational affiliated industries produce multiple products.
This, is greatly troubling so far. Do the various ministers charge
d'affaires, presidents of government branches dealing with
economies, not grasp the preponderant purpose of free markets. How
laisez faire must one be before one becomes a derelict. Indeed how
many derelicts do you know of who divest themselves from multi
leveled, synchronal business interests to achieve
enrichment‐‐‐‐professional career politicians maybe. It would right
now, appear to be so. Must we really wait and see. Is that a prudent
practice of investing.
To further grasp the lackadaisical manner in which events have
transpired recently, one need not look further than the Asian
crisis. However, let us not revisit what has not fully expired even,
again, for we are in its very midst. Let us rather examine, the
vacuity of leadership, of the heads of state foremost, and
secondly their lieutenants, the ministers presidents etc., in charge
of maintaining economic interests ( what I will call the ministers of
finance).
The position taken by these guardians of economies have been
silent in terms of maintaining proper working order of the merger
P a g e | 47
trade. This cannot be and I cannot stress this enough cannot be due
to oversight. We must remember ministers of finance have extensive
staff and support, where their activities in the conduct of the
government is a well oiled machine: all appointments booked
relevantly, documents prepared, synthesized, and indexed‐‐‐time
management at its best. Also, they have been elected ad chosen to
their post because of great and sometimes extensive knowledge and
experience.
Why then, is it so difficult to at least state a governmental position
in terms of the merger trade. We can fall back on the position that
they have faith in their antecedent controlling interests and
agencies, or they do not wish to impose governmental
interference in democratic capitalist freedoms; but that would in
fact be a simple countermeasure of responsive criticism of an
elected government. It is safe to say one must have recourse only
to what indeed they have commented upon.
The only reference I could find about this issue was from the Bank
for International Settlement in Basle, IMF and WMF joint venture.
International Finance and Commodities Institute The slow moving
process is very alarming in that it shows it is simply reactionary. A
response was in the context of the Onex Corporations attempt to
takeover the struggling Canadian airlines (Canada). The stratagem I
think, is quite revealing. It entails the waiving for 90 days of
antitrust legislation in order to allow the industry to find a solution.
Primarily, they were hoping to get a friendly in country business
entity, to take the company over and so on. However, What
happened is surprisingly relevant to mega merger practices.
In November the intention to takeover the company was made by
Onex in response to the suspension of the antitrust laws.
Following that Air Canada; the competitor of Canadian
P a g e | 48
Airlines voiced their opposition. A wrench was thrown into the bid
which was withdrawn, because of a link between a member of the
Canadian government and Onex during the electoral Campaign. Then A
Air Canada decided they would merge with its competitor Canadian
Airlines. Ultimately no further comment was made by the ministers of
the Government.
A cursory look at Onex Corporation would show it is a very active
and transient international entity, which in fact is so listed by the
Toronto Stock Exchange (Conglomeration). Onex is a diversified
global company operating on five continents in airline catering,
foodservice distribution, electronics manufacturing services and
automotive components. And again “We are an international trade
brokering house, we mainly find buyers for suppliers,
manufacturers, for transactions of 50.000 and over US$. We also
have traders for any transaction amount for your products."
In another revealing section taken from the Canadian Broadcasting
Corporation's web site "Onex is listed as a conglomerate on the
TSE. It's involved in airline catering through its ownership of
Skychefs; electronics manufacturing through Celestica; and
automotive parts through Hidden Creek Industries. It also provides
management services through companies like ClientLogic. And it
has interests in others ‐like Lantic Sugar." "Schwartz says he hopes
his company will broaden in the areas it's already in and perhaps
into the forest products industry, preferably a Canadian one. But
its real goal is to 'sink its hooks into the technologic rocket ship
that is currently taking off, so that Onex rides with it.'
Onex has already started its move into digital technology with
Celestica. But it has also continued the direction by starting
ClientLogic, a company involved in customer service and tech
support‐‐essentially high‐tech call centers.
P a g e | 49
Onex is also interested in the telecom industry and has formed a $1
billion US telecom fund with partner Telefonica in an effort to learn
more about the telecom area. They're putting up $150 million US,
while Telefonica has put in $250 million. To play in the fund,
investors will need shares in Onex.
As for those somewhat flat share prices, Schwartz brags that if an
investor had bought shares in Onex in any of the last 10 years, they'd
have outperformed the TSE index and the conglomerate index every
year. And if an investor had bought shares a full 10 years ago, they'd
have outperformed the TSE by almost five times.
Moreover, adds Schwartz, they've been up 50 per cent a year for each
of the last three years alone, a solid performance." This
guys really out there‐‐‐Yeeha. It would under similar
circumstances, be advisable that
hearings be public in the case of mega mergers but that can never
happen. A new regulatory board is therefore necessary. The only
question then is who will call for its creation. Can we leave it up to
the ministers of finance. Will the present regulatory boards see
their limitations, and improve their own range. We can only remain
vigilant and hope so, because it is just a matter of time before
precedent becomes an acceptable if not unsavory bending of the
rules.
There is another possibility. One which is far more perilous and
megalomania cal. That being incompatibility. Once one begins to see
the financial markets, it is easy to see dark devils hanging around the
backs of every door in all halls. Again posing a very difficult solution.
A solution however, that has to be arrived at whether intellectually
in the international avenues, or personally, in the individual
sovereign nations.
Governments practicing the same monetary practices years in
P a g e | 50
and year out will eventually be surpassed by events. For an answer
to this conundrum, we may look to Europe, where the EU is
groundbreaking.
Once a place where colonialism had been the ravager of time tested
institutional practices in a post world war I 20th century; Europe is
entering the twenty first in an avant garde of laissez faire economic
hegemony. I say hegemony only because it can depend on the
influence of the United States to play a counterbalancing role with the
west with Europe being the middle. Or to put it another way Europe
being the free market, the united states being the right with its
wheeling and dealing, and the east being the left with its newly found
IMF brokered bureaucratic conservatism.
The apparatus for creating a more balanced if still imperfect
regulatory board, is the Regulatory Board. Yes, that's what they
call it. Nice and simple. It is summarized best in Article 81 and
Article 82.
SEC 1
(Article 81 prohibits anti‐competitive agreements which may have an
appreciable effect on trade between Member States and which
prevent, restrict or distort competition in the Common Market. The
Commission can grant individual or group exemptions from this
prohibition if there are overriding countervailing benefits such as an
improvement in efficiency or the promotion of research and
development. Article 82 prohibits the abuse of a dominant position
insofar as it may affect trade between member states. There is no
possibility of exemption.
That being outlined we arrive at the core of the subject. What will the
first born of a global market entity have as its progeny. We won't
have to wait 20 years for it to mature to find out. Reverse minor
repression of integration micro economics. A country which is ill
equipped to deal with the industry competitive apparatus within its
very own sphere of market influence. It will be even more hard
pressed to deal with it in the Global Market Economy.
Although the European Union seems to be on the right track, it
still must contend with infrastructure building to be able to take
advantage of superior positioning. But once it has done so, there
is nothing that can prevent it from utilizing all the advantages of
this sheltered liquidity. In other terms: Once a
P a g e | 52
market region has regulated its own corporate forces, it can deploy
their resources in a coordinated way to invest in other market
regions without the fear of their competition taking advantage of
calamity‐‐‐a homoeostatic economic imperialism.
The advantage which the ministers of finance are inadequately
interpreting or utilizing: for make no mistake, the mechanisms are
there to be employed. Why are there no political overtures
towards realizing it.
The US looks towards itself as a Global Power, but it seems to be giving
and instructive reactionary role instead of a leading role as can be seen
in the latest statements by Lawrence Sumers on Friday January 21 "In
his meeting with Me. Obuchi, Me. Summers urged Japan to continue to
deregulate its economy, including the telecommunications sector, to
attract foreign investment and stimulate growth, Me. Mizoguchi said.
Later, in remarks to reporters, Me. Summers stressed that bringing the
Japanese economy back to its previous levels of cyclical economic
growth won't be enough in a world where the U.S. economy has been
expanding at around 4% for three consecutive years.
And also "... He said the challenge before the group is to fashion a
blueprint that will protect recent gains and establish a
springboard that will see the economies of Japan and Europe
emulate the astonishing prosperity currently being enjoyed by the
Me. Summers said he wants to ensure that the economic rebounds in
U.S.
previously crisis‐hit parts of the world smooth‐out current‐account
imbalances. That would bring down trade surpluses in the former
crisis economies to the benefit of the U.S., which is tallying record
monthly current‐account deficits."
There are differences between market economies, and war
economies. Yes a nation must be protectionist but not to the point
of being isolated. On the other hand, the detractors of isolationism
say a country must be the leader in exchanging goods
P a g e | 53
and assets in the market economy. Yes. First and foremost it must
be the leaders in a global market economy the proper way.
Modern Magazine February 7, 2000
Irrational Exuberance‐‐‐Only in Certain Cases
The Following three paragraphs are taken from a speech by Alan
Greenspan Given at the Committee The effects of mergers Before
the Committee on the Judiciary, U. S. Senate June 16, 1998
"More generally, it is concern over the lack of the leveling force of competition in
highly concentrated markets that has fostered the fear of bigness. But, unless a
relationship between bigness and market concentration can be more firmly rooted
in anti competitive behavior, bigness, per se, does not appear to be an issue for
national economic policy. Rather, it appears that bigness should be primarily the
concern of shareholders whose returns could be muted by large company
inefficiencies, and their customers who may face bureaucratic inflexibility."
And
"Through skill, perseverance, luck, or political connections, competitors have
always pressed for market dominance. It is free, open markets that act to thwart
achievement of such dominance, and in the process direct the competitive drive,
which seeks economic survival, towards the improvement of products, greater
productivity, and the amassing and distribution of wealth. Adam Smith's invisible
hand does apparently work. "
And
"Still more difficult is the relevance of the effects on third parties from the actions
of two individuals acting voluntarily, with or without conspiratorial intent, in their
mutual interest through exchange. In the most general sense, all bilateral
transactions, to a greater or lesser extent, affect the markets with which third
parties deal for good or ill. Some actions open new markets for unrelated third
parties. Other actions increase competitive pressure. Indeed, that is an inevitable
P a g e | 54
consequence of the division of labor in a society. But it is almost impossible in the
vast majority of cases to judge with any confidence that one act creates wealth or
another destroys it."
Also
"If competitors are excluded because of a company's excellence in addressing
consumer needs, should such activity be constrained by law? Such a standard, if
generally applied to business initiatives, would have chilled the type of
competitive aggressiveness that brings efficiencies and innovation to the
marketplace. Fortunately, that principle was subsequently abandoned by the
Supreme Court. More importantly, antitrust actions of recent years have sought to
enhance efficiencies and innovations. I leave it to others to judge their degree of
success. But the regulatory climate in antitrust, indeed throughout government,
has moved in a more market‐oriented direction. I believe that is good for
consumers and the nation."
Also especially:
"To be sure, markets do not always work fully to the standards of our abstract
notions of perfection, that in turn rest on particular notions of the way human
beings do, or should, behave in the market place. There appears to be general
agreement among economists that the test of success of economic activity is
whether, by directing an economy's scarce resources to their most productive
purposes, it makes consumers as well off as is possible. Moreover, it is
generally agreed that the chances of achieving these goals are greatest if
prices are determined in competitive markets and reflect, to the fullest extent
that is feasible, the costs in real resources of producing goods and services.
While relatively straightforward to state in theory, how such a standard should
be applied in practice is often subject to dispute."
In observance of the methods employed by economists in
acquiring the priority of economic factors, one can only but
wonder. At other times, one finds themselves swamped
with a prevalent sensation of them being themselves
P a g e | 55
overwhelmed. In attempting to remove this sensation, they
take their emotional responses out, and the leave you cold
numbers streaming as data. But there should be emotion in
economics.
Some people ignore it, by saying results are all that
matter. They say to themselves, and to those seeking
clarification, that the economy is doing well. We hear and
see that it is true, and we do not ask any further
questions. I say, wh not, ask the question, is the economy
going well; and by who's standards.
Which slot of data do you fit into. Are you upper middle
lower. Do you function with industry, corporate,
technology. Are you going up static or are you going down.
And then you may ask whom listens when I muse, upon the
data I have come across. My reply is. Te economy doesn't
always go well.
At the risk of seeming simplistic I ask a further question.
Who makes decisions regarding our place in the stratum
of econ o m y . Do we simply reside as per the place of
compliance we are as we collect the duty from which our
transgression has been profitable to someone else's
commerce.
Surely there would be answers to these questions. But I
would rather not be simplistic. Instead. I ask, where do the
investment priority go and from where does it come. And
the great parlay of international financiers comes into
audio phonic resonance, across the local bar where they
relax, to have some drinks.
Whenever we think of economists, we perceive them to be
the wearers of ill fashioned optics, and clean white shirts. In
fact, they are not any different than we are. Comprised of
desires, lack of discipline, fear, foolhardiness, and over
exuberance. This latter is a term Allan Greenspan, the most
important economist of this time, guards against
continually.
P a g e | 56
There are however, interwoven within the fabric of
economists an common current which rums through all of
us, humanity.
Since we cannot escape it, we must deal with it s
best we can.
Human economics can be best broken down into two
parts‐‐‐one as disparate as the other. 1. Manifest destiny
2. Confidence. : Every man believes he is in his own
sphere of existence in order to accomplish a specific goal
unique to himself or his group with he or that group
predominating the avant‐garde, or he aspires to be. He
therefore must have the confidence to leave his sphere of
influence in order to escape the bearing of this knowledge
of himself, and be confident he may realize it. But
economics do not work in a world of only a given set of
factors.
Therefore, the sphere of an economist will be propensate
only to its fullest extent within a given set of factors
which can then work upon itself without being corrupted
by other disparate distractions. This is best described as
Propensate isolationism. The only problem is that the
human side of us, rejects by nature, the boundaries that
the artificial world embodies it; and instead attempts at
the same time to adopt the natural speciousness which
nature has given it. This is not bout technology, just the
human condition.
Henceforth we arrive to the issue of Irrational exuberance
itself. What is it exactly that the maestro of the American
machine means? Summarized to be sure within the human
aspect , now we must turn to the actual overt meaning of the
term.
A. At face value. One would see the worry of technology
stocks creating over investment in other stock portfolio
P a g e | 57
sectors
.
B. People who know nothing of the stock market investing
in good times
C. profitability from artificial mergers with
phantom market inner workings.
Should we worry ?
Modern Magazine May 8 2000
Poverty Rules
The biggest problem with the economy of the developing nations is the
people who are still in excessive poverty. The ascendance of these
citizens is to grow from the day to day menial tasks and low earnings,
to education, intelligence and experience.
But how can these nations, who are often corrupt deal with the
providence of their own people. Especially since they do not realize
this themselves.
Great men can come along. But these come along in crisis. There is in
fact, no need for crisis to develop since the battles forewarned of by
the UN are always taken care of before, and, these generations of
leaders do in fact take a generation to arise.
It would then seem proper to take closer look at the reasons behind the
lack of leadership, aside from the critical status quo of corruption.
These being, 1. Ineptness, 2. Greed, 3. Infrastructure (the lack of), 4.
And Finally Disillusion.
It would in turn be a mistake to confine the problems to the nations
proper whom these problems afflict. In other terms, in another sense,
the UN and major political entities are the ones who deal
P a g e | 58
with these nations. I wouldn't want to be the one in charge of making a
compendium of advisers and infrastructure forming apparatus
personnel who are sent by the developed world. No It will be an even
bigger mistake in the upcoming years.
The propensity for greed is a major factor in two of these factors for
1. Ineptness can only be pervasive when only certain of the
dominant sectoral properties produce. And greed as a result of
disillusions permit potential leaders from doing what is right.
The question remains whether or not the United States will be the
leader of democratic aspects of freedom, that it was in the 20th
century. We should all hope so. The EU as depicted by this writer isn't
necessarily playing ball. This was even remarked in one of their own
publications where they refer to isolationism as a thing to which
nations may turn in a condition of great economic competition.
If the US does end up being isolationist, we will have to do everything we
possibly can to avoid this becoming a nationalistic pride hood.. We will all
have to extricate ourselves from this isolationism eventually. However, I
am not claiming isolationism is bad‐‐‐just its extended form.
In order to avoid this perilous trap it is not sufficient to carry on in our
present manner of interconnected philosophical economic dealings.
Neither is it justified to take half measures in the form of fast track
temporary endeavors. We must be aware of the panacea of matters,
issues, and technical aspects which make up the global economy. I m
not being critical in any uncertain terms of the men who are at the
helm of our times. Neither Greenspan nor proponents of fast track
are wrong. But what else are they motivated by in these offerings.
Should we worry. Modern Magazine Is. Thank You.
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Works Cited
Asia’s Rising. (2007, May). National Science Foundation , pp. 34‐36.
Diane Lindstrom, B. M. (n.d.). "History of United States Business," . Retrieved February 3, 2008,
from Microsoft® Encarta® Online Encyclopedia 2007:
http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_701610399_4/History_of_United_States_
Business.html?partner=orp#p86
Kojima, A. (2005). EU‐Japan Think Tank Roundtable “Next Steps in Global Governance”.
Japan‐EU Think Tank Roundtable. NIRA Conference Room Japan Foundation International
Conference Room Tokyo.
Mitchell, W. (1994). The dynamics of evolving markets: the effects of business sales and age
on dissolutions and divestitures. (Dec, 1994 ).
Read, R. EU Expansion To The East. Prospects And Problems. In H. I.‐M. McKinlay, EU
Expansion To The East. Prospects And Problems (p. Chapter 2 Page 23). Glensanda House
Montepelier Parade Cheltonham, Gloss GL50 1UA UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
i
The eastward expansion of the European Union (EU) will include many, if not eventually all, of the
former Soviet Bloc and/or their successor states. Enlargement therefore has a critical strategic
dimension, but there are also important economic implications for both existing EU member states and
the acceding countries. These encompass principally the interaction between the effects of trade and
economic growth. Latterly, however, a key theme of EU policy has been macroeconomic convergence
and policy coordination, leading to the introduction of the Euro in January of 1999 and the elimination
of national currencies in euroland in 2002
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