Effects of Future Emissions and a Changed Climate on Urban Air Quality

Mark Z. Jacobson Stanford University Co-contributor David G. Streets Argonne Nat. Lab. EPA RD 83337101-0 EPA Workshop: Impacts of Climate Change on Air Quality in the Pacic Southwest San Francisco, California Oct. 11, 2007

Effects of Future Anth. Emissions on Natural Emissions and Air Quality

Climate-Dependent Natural Emissions Treated Lightning NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, CO, HO2, H2O2 Sea spray Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, S, Br, N Ocean bacteria Phytoplankton DMS Soil dust Vegetation isoprene, monoterpenes, NMVOC Soil NOx Pollen Spores Land bacteria Natural re and volcanic gas and particle emissions Photosynthesis, cellular respiration, soil respiration CO2

Growth Factor
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Carbon monoxide Black carbon

2030 A1B CO/BC Growth Factors (B1 also derived)

Ca na C da en tra U So l Am SA ut h eric N or Am a th er W ern ica es A te fri Ea rn ca s Af So tern rica ut he Afri O rn ca EC A Ea D frica st Eu er ro n Fo Eu pe rm ro er pe M US id dl SR e So Ea ut st h A So E a sia s ut he t A s as i a tA O sia ce an ia Ja pa n W or ld

D.G. Streets

Differences 2002-2030 Under A1B and B1 Scenarios

Differences 2002-2030 Under A1B and B1 Scenarios

Differences 2002-2030 Under A1B and B1 Scenarios

Massachusetts et al. v. EPA

Supreme Court Ruling April 2, 2007: CO2 can be regulated (b) The harms associated with climate change are serious and well recognized. The Governments own objective assessment of the relevant science and a strong consensus among qualied experts indicate that global warming threatens, inter alia, a precipitate rise in sea levels, severe and irreversible changes to natural ecosystems, a signicant reduction in winter snowpack with direct and important economic consequences, and increases in the spread of disease and the ferocity of weather events. However, the ruling does not require the regulation of CO2 and no study so far has demonstrated, by cause and effect, that CO2 itself harms health through air pollution (many studies have linked warmer temperatures to ozone, but none has isolated CO2s effect or calculated health impacts of ozone or PM2.5).

How Causal Link Between CO2 and Health was Determined

1. An exact numerical solutions to photochemistry in a box model was used to establish the relationships between (a) water vapor and ozone and (b) temperature and ozone. 2. 3-D Nested global-regional simulations over the U.S. were used to show by cause-and-effect whether CO2 alone increases air temperatures, whether the temperatures increase water vapor and atmospheric stability, and how all three parameters affect ozone, particulate matter, and carcinogens. 3. Population and health-statistics data were combined with the concentration changes to determine the net effect of CO2 on air pollution mortality, hospitalization, asthma, and cancer.

Increases in H2O and T Both Increase O3 with Increasing O3

250
NMOG=500, NOx=150

Ozone mixing ratio (ppbv)

200 150 100 50

NMOG=350, NOx=100 NMOG=235, NOx=45 NMOG=120, NOx=20 NMOG=60, NOx=13 NMOG=50, NOx=4

NMOG=30, NOx=30

NMOG=15, NOx=0.7

0 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction) 0.04

With increasing water vapor, Hi NOx: NO+HO2-->NO2+OH fast, increasing NO2:NO, O3 Lo NOx: 2HO2 -H2O->H2O2 fast; NO2 lost to orgnit, decr. NO2:NO, O3

Causal Effect of CO2 on Mortality

Global-regional nested simulations: CO2 alone increases T, H2O, O3, PM2.5

Temperature

Water vapor

Ozone

U.S. Total deaths/yr per 1K +1000 (350-1800) 40% due to ozone; 60% due to PM2.5 World Total deaths/yr per 1K +21,600 (7400-39,000)

Pressure (hPa)

Reduced Upper-Trop/Lower Strat O3 due to Higher H2O, Lower T there From CO2
-1 0 1
200 400
Model

600 800

Data

-40 -20
100 Pressure (hPa)

0
Ozone mixing ratio (ppmv)

8.07 8.065 8.06 8.055

221.55 K 220.05 K Stratosphere (25 km) NMOG = 0 ppbv, NOx = 3 ppbv

1000 -1 0 1 a.ii) ! Temperature (K)

0 0.4 0.8 1.2

100

8.05 8.045 8.04 2 10-6 6 10-6 1 10-5 1.4 10-5 b) Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction)

Pressure (hPa)

1000 -40 -20 0 ! Daytime O (ppbv)

3

1000 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 b.ii) ! H O (ppthv)

2

30-Day Weather Predictions vs. Data

Results with no model spinup or data assimilation
1030 1025 1020 1015 1010 1005 1000 12

Air pressure (hPa)

34.4453 N, 118.1722 W 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999) 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 12

Ozone
34.0506 N, 117.5447 W
o o

Ozone (ppmv)

Pressure

Air temperature ( C)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 12

108 204 300 396 492 588 684 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)

780

34.0133 N, 117.9406 W 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999) 780

RH

Relative humidity (%)

Temperature

100 80 60 40 20 0 12

34.0133 N, 117.9406 W 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999) 780

Model vs. Measured Solar Radiation

Model predicted the location and magnitude of cloud reduction of sunlight for four days in a row
Solar irradiance (W/m )
1000 800 600 400 200 0 12
2
o o

34.2525 N, 118.8575 W

96 180 264 348 432 516 600 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)

684

Solar irradiance (W/m )

1000 800 600 400 200 0 96

34.2525 N, 118.8575 W

Measured and modeled solar reductions due to clouds

108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)

Summary
Increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO2 separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus, global warming may exacerbate ozone most in already-polluted areas. CO2 may increase U.S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000 (350-1800) and cancers by 20-30 per 1 K rise in CO2-induced temperatures, with 40% due to O3 and 60% due to PM2.5, which increases from enhanced stability. Increases in worldwide deaths could be about 21,600 (7400-39,000) more than those from enhanced storminess. CO2 decreases column ozone by decreasing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric ozone. Although this increases UV, increased aerosol loadings reduce this UV at the surface. The results provide a basis for controlling CO2 on air-pollution health grounds.

Summary
A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2030 were developed. Although B1 was cleaner, global warming increased more with it because A1B warming was masked by added reective particles. Lightning emissions decreased in both scenarios as cloud ice decreased. Photosynthesis-cellular respiration (NPP) increased in both scenarios. Seas spray, ocean bacteria, DMS, soil dust, pollen, spores, land bacteria emissions slightly decreased due to enhanced stability. Ozone increased in both scenarios.