DAILY I FOREX REPORT 22NDMAY 2013

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HEADLINES

USD/JPY Erases Losses as Amari Retracts Yen Comments; GBP Weakest British Pound May Weaken As Soft CPI Drives Dovish BOE Bets
The US Dollar is the top performer once again as Asian traders happily lapped up the worlds reserve currency following the Monday bank holiday. At the start of the week, with trading conditions thin, the US Dollar was hit (relatively) hard after Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari said that the period of excess Japanese Yen strength might have been largely corrected. Today, Mr. Amari has backed off of his stance, saying that I have previously said that the overly strong yen is in the process of being correctedI will not say it has been corrected, or where it will finish. It appears that Mr. Amari has been reprimanded by Japanese policy leadership, not a small coincidence considering that the Bank of Japan is meeting and will announce its latest measures, if any, tomorrow. With Japanese data picking up in the near-term, notably the 1Q13 GDP print at +3.5% annualized versus +2.7% annualized expected, there is reason to believe that no new measures will be announced. In light of the better than expected data and the Amari commentary, there are a few notable take away points for the next 24 hours: a weak Yen is desired; but if the Yen gets too weak, it will have a negative impact on peoples lives as it would create excessive upside pressure on inflation, causing the BoJ to overshoot its target creating a volatile monetary policy; and any further selling of the Yen may be accompanied by selling in JGBs, which puts upside pressure on interest rate payments, which hurts government fiscal policy.

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2860 TGT 1.2840/1.2820 SL 1.2890

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.85 TGT 103.15/103.35 SL 102.55

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5160 TGT 1.5140/1.5110 SL 1.5190

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2871 HIGH: 1.2888 LOW: 1.2864 CLOSE: 1.2872 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 102.78 HIGH: 102.81 LOW: 102.63 CLOSE: 102.65 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.05(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5181 HIGH: 1.5185 LOW: 1.5164 CLOSE: 1.5173 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 30(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8478 HIGH: 00.8491 LOW: 00.8478 CLOSE: 00.8482 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.00005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 75(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 83.9910 HIGH: 84.0310 LOW: 83.9180 CLOSE: 83.9890 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun May 19

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (APR) GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY) GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY) JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May

Medium

56.1

55.6

23:01

Low

2.1%

2.1%

23:01
Mon May 20

Low

2.5%

0.4%

Medium

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Coincident Index (MAR F) JPY Leading Index (MAR F) JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR) USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR) USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR) AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q) NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR) NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR) JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-2.8%

48.4%

05:00

Low

93.8

93.3

05:00

Medium

97.9

97.6

05:30

Low

-0.5%

3.9%

05:30

Low

2.1%

6.4%

06:00

Medium

-23.6%

-24.1%

07:00

Low

-2.6%

-0.4%

12:30

Medium

-0.53

-0.23

17:00
Tue May 21

Low

00:00

Medium

0.1%

0.3%

01:30

High

03:00

Medium

2.06%

2.17%

03:00

Medium

0.4%

-0.3%

03:00

Medium

4.0%

3.6%

04:30

Medium

-0.4%

0.6%

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR) EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR) EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR) GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR) USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR) JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)

Low

1.7%

06:00

Low

-0.1%

-0.2%

06:00

Low

0.1%

0.4%

07:00

Low

9.9%

08:30

Low

-1.3%

-0.1%

08:30

Low

0.3%

0.4%

08:30

Low

0.2%

0.3%

08:30

Medium

1.4%

2.0%

08:30

Low

0.3%

0.1%

08:30

Medium

0.9%

1.3%

08:30

Low

2.0%

1.9%

08:30

Medium

0.4%

0.3%

08:30

High

2.6%

2.8%

08:30

High

2.3%

2.4%

08:30

Low

249.9

248.7

08:30

Low

0.5%

0.4%

08:30

Low

3.1%

3.3%

08:30

Low

3.0%

3.2%

15:30

Low

17:00

Low

22:45

Low

1220

23:50

Medium

-637.3B

-362.4B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (APR) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22) JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting

Low

-605.8B

-922.0B

23:50

Low

5.5

1.1

Wed May 22

High

0.10%

0.10%

High

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY) AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR) GBP Bank of England Minutes GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR) GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR) GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR) GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)

Medium

-5.1%

00:30

Low

104.9

01:00

Low

0.1%

04:00

Medium

08:00

Low

16.3B

08:00

Low

12.1B

08:30

High

08:30

Low

0.1%

-0.8%

08:30

Medium

1.8%

0.4%

08:30

Low

0.1%

-0.7%

08:30

Medium

2.0%

-0.5%

08:30

Medium

-4.0B

31.3B

08:30

Medium

8.5B

15.1B

08:30

Medium

8.8B

16.7B

10:00

Low

-17

-25

10:00

Low

11:00

Low

-7.3%

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR) USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook USD Existing Home Sales (APR) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17) USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 May 1 FOMC Meeting JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY) CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY) JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)

Medium

0.2%

0.8%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.7%

14:00

High

14:00

Low

4.99M

4.92M

14:00

Medium

1.3%

-0.6%

14:30

Low

-624K

14:30

Low

575K

14:30

Low

2588K

14:30

Low

2300K

18:00

High

23:50

Low

6.9

5.5

23:50

Medium

186.4B

23:50

Medium

19.2B

23:50

Low

-413.5B

Thu May 23

01:00

Medium

2.20%

01:45
LIVE

Medium

50.4

50.4

05:00

Medium

07:00

Low

44.8

44.4

07:00

Low

44.5

44.3

07:30

Medium

48.5

48.1

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A) GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) GBP Private Consumption (1Q P) GBP Government Spending (1Q P) GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P) GBP Exports (1Q P)

Medium

50.0

49.6

08:00
LIVE

Medium

47.0

46.7

08:00
LIVE

Medium

47.2

47.0

08:00
LIVE

Medium

47.2

46.9

08:30

High

0.3%

0.3%

08:30

High

0.6%

0.6%

08:30

Low

0.3%

0.4%

08:30

Low

0.2%

0.6%

08:30

Low

0.3%

-0.2%

08:30

Low

-1.0%

-1.6%

08:30

GBP Imports (1Q P) GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P) GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P) GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR) GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR) USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17) USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY) USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

-0.9%

-1.0%

08:30

Low

-0.8%

08:30

Medium

0.8%

08:30

Low

0.1%

0.8%

08:30

Low

0.6%

0.1%

10:05

Low

12:30

Medium

346K

360K

12:30

Low

3000K

3009K

12:58

Medium

52

13:00

Medium

0.80%

0.70%

13:00

Low

1.40%

14:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A) USD New Home Sales (APR) USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17) USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17) EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)

Medium

-21.8

-22.3

14:00

Low

425K

417K

14:00

Medium

1.90%

1.50%

14:30

Low

99

15:00

Low

-5

-5

22:45

Medium

480M

718M

22:45

Low

4.06B

4.42B

22:45

Low

3.60B

3.70B

23:50

Low

878.8B

Fri May 24

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

01:35

CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference USD Revisions: New Home Sales EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F) EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q) EUR German Exports (1Q) EUR German Capital Investment (1Q) EUR German Government Spending (1Q) EUR German Construction Investment (1Q) EUR German Imports (1Q)

Low

02:55

Low

04:00

Low

06:00

High

-0.2%

-0.2%

06:00

High

-1.4%

-1.4%

06:00

Low

0.1%

0.2%

06:00

Low

-0.6%

-2.0%

06:00

Low

-0.7%

-0.7%

06:00

Low

0.3%

0.4%

06:00

Low

-1.2%

-0.1%

06:00

Low

-0.9%

-0.6%

06:00

EUR German Private Consumption (1Q) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN) EUR German IFO Business Climate (MAY) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (MAY) EUR German IFO Expectations (MAY) GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR) USD Durable Goods Orders (APR) USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)

Low

0.3%

0.1%

06:00

Medium

6.2

6.2

08:00

Medium

104.4

104.4

08:00

Medium

107.2

107.2

08:00

Medium

101.6

101.6

08:30 12:30
LIVE

Medium

32800

31227

High

1.7%

-5.7%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

-1.4%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.2%

12:30

Low

0.3%

22:45

Medium

-380M

-525M

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