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USD/JPY Erases Losses as Amari Retracts Yen Comments; GBP Weakest British Pound May Weaken As Soft CPI Drives Dovish BOE Bets
The US Dollar is the top performer once again as Asian traders happily lapped up the worlds reserve currency following the Monday bank holiday. At the start of the week, with trading conditions thin, the US Dollar was hit (relatively) hard after Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari said that the period of excess Japanese Yen strength might have been largely corrected. Today, Mr. Amari has backed off of his stance, saying that I have previously said that the overly strong yen is in the process of being correctedI will not say it has been corrected, or where it will finish. It appears that Mr. Amari has been reprimanded by Japanese policy leadership, not a small coincidence considering that the Bank of Japan is meeting and will announce its latest measures, if any, tomorrow. With Japanese data picking up in the near-term, notably the 1Q13 GDP print at +3.5% annualized versus +2.7% annualized expected, there is reason to believe that no new measures will be announced. In light of the better than expected data and the Amari commentary, there are a few notable take away points for the next 24 hours: a weak Yen is desired; but if the Yen gets too weak, it will have a negative impact on peoples lives as it would create excessive upside pressure on inflation, causing the BoJ to overshoot its target creating a volatile monetary policy; and any further selling of the Yen may be accompanied by selling in JGBs, which puts upside pressure on interest rate payments, which hurts government fiscal policy.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2860 TGT 1.2840/1.2820 SL 1.2890
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ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2871 HIGH: 1.2888 LOW: 1.2864 CLOSE: 1.2872 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 44(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS OPEN: 102.78 HIGH: 102.81 LOW: 102.63 CLOSE: 102.65 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.05(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5181 HIGH: 1.5185 LOW: 1.5164 CLOSE: 1.5173 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 30(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8478 HIGH: 00.8491 LOW: 00.8478 CLOSE: 00.8482 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.00005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 75(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ANALYSIS OPEN: 83.9910 HIGH: 84.0310 LOW: 83.9180 CLOSE: 83.9890 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun May 19
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (APR) GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY) GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY) JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May
Medium
56.1
55.6
23:01
Low
2.1%
2.1%
23:01
Mon May 20
Low
2.5%
0.4%
Medium
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Coincident Index (MAR F) JPY Leading Index (MAR F) JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR) USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR) USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR) AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q) NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR) NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR) JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-2.8%
48.4%
05:00
Low
93.8
93.3
05:00
Medium
97.9
97.6
05:30
Low
-0.5%
3.9%
05:30
Low
2.1%
6.4%
06:00
Medium
-23.6%
-24.1%
07:00
Low
-2.6%
-0.4%
12:30
Medium
-0.53
-0.23
17:00
Tue May 21
Low
00:00
Medium
0.1%
0.3%
01:30
High
03:00
Medium
2.06%
2.17%
03:00
Medium
0.4%
-0.3%
03:00
Medium
4.0%
3.6%
04:30
Medium
-0.4%
0.6%
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR) EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR) EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR) GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR) USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR) JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)
Low
1.7%
06:00
Low
-0.1%
-0.2%
06:00
Low
0.1%
0.4%
07:00
Low
9.9%
08:30
Low
-1.3%
-0.1%
08:30
Low
0.3%
0.4%
08:30
Low
0.2%
0.3%
08:30
Medium
1.4%
2.0%
08:30
Low
0.3%
0.1%
08:30
Medium
0.9%
1.3%
08:30
Low
2.0%
1.9%
08:30
Medium
0.4%
0.3%
08:30
High
2.6%
2.8%
08:30
High
2.3%
2.4%
08:30
Low
249.9
248.7
08:30
Low
0.5%
0.4%
08:30
Low
3.1%
3.3%
08:30
Low
3.0%
3.2%
15:30
Low
17:00
Low
22:45
Low
1220
23:50
Medium
-637.3B
-362.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (APR) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22) JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting
Low
-605.8B
-922.0B
23:50
Low
5.5
1.1
Wed May 22
High
0.10%
0.10%
High
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY) AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR) GBP Bank of England Minutes GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR) GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR) GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR) GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)
Medium
-5.1%
00:30
Low
104.9
01:00
Low
0.1%
04:00
Medium
08:00
Low
16.3B
08:00
Low
12.1B
08:30
High
08:30
Low
0.1%
-0.8%
08:30
Medium
1.8%
0.4%
08:30
Low
0.1%
-0.7%
08:30
Medium
2.0%
-0.5%
08:30
Medium
-4.0B
31.3B
08:30
Medium
8.5B
15.1B
08:30
Medium
8.8B
16.7B
10:00
Low
-17
-25
10:00
Low
11:00
Low
-7.3%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR) USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook USD Existing Home Sales (APR) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17) USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 May 1 FOMC Meeting JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY) CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY) JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
0.2%
0.8%
12:30
Low
0.2%
0.7%
14:00
High
14:00
Low
4.99M
4.92M
14:00
Medium
1.3%
-0.6%
14:30
Low
-624K
14:30
Low
575K
14:30
Low
2588K
14:30
Low
2300K
18:00
High
23:50
Low
6.9
5.5
23:50
Medium
186.4B
23:50
Medium
19.2B
23:50
Low
-413.5B
Thu May 23
01:00
Medium
2.20%
01:45
LIVE
Medium
50.4
50.4
05:00
Medium
07:00
Low
44.8
44.4
07:00
Low
44.5
44.3
07:30
Medium
48.5
48.1
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A) GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) GBP Private Consumption (1Q P) GBP Government Spending (1Q P) GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P) GBP Exports (1Q P)
Medium
50.0
49.6
08:00
LIVE
Medium
47.0
46.7
08:00
LIVE
Medium
47.2
47.0
08:00
LIVE
Medium
47.2
46.9
08:30
High
0.3%
0.3%
08:30
High
0.6%
0.6%
08:30
Low
0.3%
0.4%
08:30
Low
0.2%
0.6%
08:30
Low
0.3%
-0.2%
08:30
Low
-1.0%
-1.6%
08:30
GBP Imports (1Q P) GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P) GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P) GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR) GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR) USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17) USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY) USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
-0.9%
-1.0%
08:30
Low
-0.8%
08:30
Medium
0.8%
08:30
Low
0.1%
0.8%
08:30
Low
0.6%
0.1%
10:05
Low
12:30
Medium
346K
360K
12:30
Low
3000K
3009K
12:58
Medium
52
13:00
Medium
0.80%
0.70%
13:00
Low
1.40%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A) USD New Home Sales (APR) USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17) USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17) EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
Medium
-21.8
-22.3
14:00
Low
425K
417K
14:00
Medium
1.90%
1.50%
14:30
Low
99
15:00
Low
-5
-5
22:45
Medium
480M
718M
22:45
Low
4.06B
4.42B
22:45
Low
3.60B
3.70B
23:50
Low
878.8B
Fri May 24
Medium
0.1%
0.1%
01:35
CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference USD Revisions: New Home Sales EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F) EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q) EUR German Exports (1Q) EUR German Capital Investment (1Q) EUR German Government Spending (1Q) EUR German Construction Investment (1Q) EUR German Imports (1Q)
Low
02:55
Low
04:00
Low
06:00
High
-0.2%
-0.2%
06:00
High
-1.4%
-1.4%
06:00
Low
0.1%
0.2%
06:00
Low
-0.6%
-2.0%
06:00
Low
-0.7%
-0.7%
06:00
Low
0.3%
0.4%
06:00
Low
-1.2%
-0.1%
06:00
Low
-0.9%
-0.6%
06:00
EUR German Private Consumption (1Q) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN) EUR German IFO Business Climate (MAY) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (MAY) EUR German IFO Expectations (MAY) GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR) USD Durable Goods Orders (APR) USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
0.3%
0.1%
06:00
Medium
6.2
6.2
08:00
Medium
104.4
104.4
08:00
Medium
107.2
107.2
08:00
Medium
101.6
101.6
08:30 12:30
LIVE
Medium
32800
31227
High
1.7%
-5.7%
12:30
Medium
0.5%
-1.4%
12:30
Low
0.5%
0.2%
12:30
Low
0.3%
22:45
Medium
-380M
-525M
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