INDIA Cement

Grasim Industries
Event Update
19 August 2010
Key Data
Bloomberg Code Reuters Code GRASIM IN GRAS.BO 91.7 91.7 188.9/4.1 2,229/1,496 150,282 10

Buy
Target Price: 2,549 CMP: Rs2,060* Upside: 23.7%
*as on 18 August 2010

VSF in sweet spot, Ultratech near trough valuation

The recent flood in Pakistan is expected to further tighten the demand-supply balance in cotton, ensuring buoyant prices for the next season. The recent imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese and Indonesian VSF provides a further cushion to domestic VSF prices. In addition, if US cotton subsidies are removed post a definitive WTO verdict in favour of Brazil, it would result in a further trigger for long-term buoyancy in cotton prices (refer to our note Brazil Retaliation-Leap for VSF Prices dated 15 March 2010). Grasim becomes a compelling Buy given the unsustainably high holding company discount of 65% for its 60.4% stake in Ultratech Cement, which has limited downside. We reiterate a Buy on Grasim, with a target price of Rs2,549, implying a potential upside of 23.7%. VSF business in sweet spot: Cotton and VSF prices are expected to continue their buoyant trend, as the floods in Pakistan are expected to further tighten the cotton demand-supply balance. The recent imposition of antidumping duty on Chinese and Indonesian VSF imports is likely to provide a further cushion to domestic VSF prices. Limited downside in Ultratech Cements: With the valuation of Ultratech Cements falling to P/BV of 2.3x, comparable with ACC valuation during the last trough (1.9x during FY03), there is little downside on the stock. We see Ultratech Cement as an attractive long-term investment. Holding company discount at an unsustainable 65%: With limited downside in Ultratech Cements, robust VSF outlook and unsustainably high holding company discount of 65% for Grasims 60.4% stake in Ultratech Cements, Grasim becomes a compelling Buy. We reiterate our Buy rating with a target price of Rs2549, based on SOTP valuation.

Current Shares O/S (mn) Diluted Shares O/S(mn) Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 52 Wk H / L (Rs) Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) Face Value (Rs) 1 USD = Rs46.6

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Public & Others, 12.0

Foreign, 36.0

Promoters, 25.5

Non Promoter Corp. Hold., 5.6

Institutions, 21.0

As on 30 June 2010

One year Indexed Stock Performance

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10

GRASIM INDS LTD

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX

Price Performance (%)

1M Grasim Ind. NIFTY 12.7 2.8 6M 3.0 13.8 1Yr 11.8 24.4

Rajan Kumar rajan.kumar@centrum.co.in 91 22 4215 9640

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research *as on 18 August 2010

Y/E Mar (Rsbn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E

Rev 169.7 184.0 199.3 209.1 219.0

YoY (%) 20.6 8.4 8.3 4.9 4.7

EBITDA 49.6 43.3 57.9 50 49.9

EBITDA (%) 29.2 23.5 29.0 23.7 22.8

Adj PAT 26.2 21.9 27.6 20.8 20.6

YoY (%) 33.4 (16.7) 26.2 (24.5) (1.3)

Fully DEPS 286.2 238.5 301.0 227 224

RoE (%) 33.4 21.1 22.9 15.5 13.6

RoCE (%) 21.1 15.0 16.4 12.0 10.6

P/BV 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3

P/E (x) 7.2 8.6 6.8 9.1 9.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 5.3 3.9 4.6 4.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers in Appendix A

VSF business in sweet spot

The recent flood in Pakistan is reported to have destroyed about 30% of the countrys crop. This is expected to lead to lower availability of cotton by 0.7mn mt in the next cotton season (2010/11), and would further tighten the already tight global cotton demand-supply balance. This puts Grasim Industries VSF business in a sweet spot, as the buoyant streak in cotton prices as well as VSF prices is expected to continue over FY11/FY12. A further trigger for long-term buoyancy can be the possible removal of US cotton subsidies post a definitive WTO verdict in favour of Brazil (refer to our note Brazil Retaliation Leap for VSF Prices, dated 15 March, 2010). Exhibit 1: World cotton demand supply to further tighten
World Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (ICAC)August 2010 2008/09 Million Tons BEGINNING STOCKS PRODUCTION SUPPLY CONSUMPTION EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS 12.25 23.35 35.6 23.39 6.63 12.01 2009/10 Million tons 12.01 21.86 33.88 24.47 7.69 9.45 2010/11E Million Tons 9.45 25.24 34.69 24.92 8.05 9.77 Likely Scenario Post Pakistan Flood Impact) 2010/11 Million Tons 9.45 24.58 34.03 24.92 8.05 9.11

Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee

In addition, the recent imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese (@$0.19/kg) and Indonesian (@$0.5/kg) VSF provides a further cushion to the prevailing domestic VSF prices. Exhibit 2: Snapshot of the VSF segment: robust business with high margin and ROCE
FY02 Sales Volume (tonne) Realization (Rs/tonne) Revenue (Rsmn) EBIDTA (Rsmn) Margin (%) EBIT (Rsmn) ROCE (%)* 181,520 73,215 13,290 3,541 26.6 3,059 29.5 FY03 227,900 67,921 16,400 5,916 36.1 5,438 52.2 FY04 229,110 72,269 17,648 5,727 32.5 5,204 45.1 FY05 231,533 79,008 19,564 6,108 31.2 5,536 35.2 FY06 242,399 73,786 19,130 4,950 25.9 4,296 25.7 FY07 250,725 85,729 23,089 7,123 30.9 6,380 33.3 FY08 269,781 103,316 29,985 10,971 36.6 10,120 40.2 FY09 238,463 96,516 24,765 5,136 20.7 4,082 16.0 FY10 308,431 106,481 35,742 13,155 36.8 12,035 48.0 FY11E 325,502 110,103 35,839 12,544 35.0 11,336 45.0 FY12E 341,777 110,103 37,631 12,794 34.0 11,474 44.4

*ROCE-- (EBIT(1-tax rate)/Average Capital Employed) Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Ultratechs valuation attractive from long-term perspective With the valuation of Ultratech Cements (CMP Rs898) falling to a P/BV of 2.3x, which is comparable with ACCs valuation during the last trough (1.9x during FY03), there is little downside on the stock, which we view as an attractive long-term investment. Exhibit 3: Re-Rating: 1.5X P/BV-2xP/BV in FY03 (Oversupply phase) to 3.6X-3.8XP/BV in FY05-07 (Tight demand supply)
(x) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09
1.5x Average Value

Price to Book value (Ambuja Cements)

3.6x Average Value

(x) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97

Price/Book Value (ACC)

3.8x Average Value 1.9x Average Value

Apr-98

Apr-99

Apr-00

Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Grasim Industries

Apr-09

Holding company discount unsustainable at 65%, Grasim becomes a compelling Buy With limited downside in Ultratech Cements, robust VSF outlook and unsustainably high holding company discount of 65% for Grasims 60.4% stake in Ultratech Cements, Grasim becomes a compelling Buy. We reiterate our Buy rating with a target price of Rs2549, based on SOTP valuation. Exhibit 4: Inexpensive route to play Ultratech Cement
UltraTech (CMP: Rs898) Grasims equity (Rsmn) Grasim's direct holding in UltraTech (Post Samrudhhi merger) Holding in UltraTech that Grasim's shareholders would get in individual capacity UltraTech's market cap @898/share (Rsmn) 916.9 60.4% 19.11% 246,318

SOTP valuation of Grasim (Rs) A. B C. D. E F G H E-F G/A A+B+C+D Value of Grasims direct holding in UltraTech (post Samrudhhi merger) /share Value of VSF biz per share (PE 12X FY11 E) Value of investments in L&T, Hindalco, Idea and AV Nuvo (0.7 X M cap) Value liquid investments (1X ) Value of Grasim per share (with no holding company discount for UltraTech stake) CMP of Grasim stock Holding company discount Holding company discount (%) to valuation assigned to Ultratech 1,622 991 237 274 3,121 2,060 1,061 65.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Exhibit 5: Grasims SOTP valuation

Value Per Share (Rs) Share in Ultratech (with 30% holding company discount at Ultratech TP of Rs830) Value of strategic investments (0.7 x Mcap) Value of liquid investment (1x) Value of VSF business (12X FY11E) Value of Grasim share post restructuring Source: Company, Centrum Research 1,049 235 274 990 2,549

Grasim Industries

Financials (Consolidated)
Exhibit 6: Income Statement
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Revenues Growth in revenues (%) EBITDA EBITDA Margin Depreciation PBIT Interst expenses PBT from operations Other non operating income PBT before extra-ordinary items Extra-ordinary income/ (exp) PBT Provision for tax Effective tax rate PAT Minority Interest PAT after minority int. Adjusted PAT Growth in PAT (%) PAT margin FY08 169,739 20.6 49,598 29.2 6,703 42,895 2,221 40,674 4,623 45,296 45,296 14,658 32.4 30,639 4,565 26,073 26,073 15.5 15.4 FY09 184,039 8.4 43,296 23.5 8,658 34,638 3,105 31,534 4,532 36,066 36,066 9,914 27.5 26,152 4,445 21,708 21,708 11.9 11.8 FY10 FY11E FY12E 219,011 4.7 49,941 22.8 12,575 37,366 3,817 33,550 6,000 39,550 39,550 12,365 31.3 27,185 6,625 20,559 20,559 9.4 9.4 199,334 209,103 8.3 57,867 29.0 9,947 47,920 3,346 44,574 5,356 49,930 49,930 15,705 31.5 34,225 7,141 27,084 27,084 13.8 13.6 4.9 49,644 23.7 11,557 38,088 3,817 34,271 6,000 40,271 40,271 12,581 31.2 27,690 6,853 20,836 20,836 10.0 10.0

Exhibit 8: Cash flow

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) CF from operating Profit before tax Depreciation Interest expenses/other OP profit before WC change Working capital adjustment Gross cash from operations Direct taxes paid Cash from operations Extraordinary (Inc) Cash From Op & EI CF from investing Capex Investment Cash from investment CF from financing Proceeds from sh cap & prem. Borrowings/ (Repayments) Interest paid Dividend paid Cash from financing Net cash increase/ (dec) 634 7,201 (3,095) (185) 4,555 (789) 438 7,991 (3,483) (3,553) (633) 18 (4,647) (5,015) (3,545) 99 2,169 (3,817) (3,224) (4,872) 7,147 (500) (3,817) (3,224) (7,541) 23,446 (51,181) 5,885 (26,468) (14,555) (10,183) (30,662) (33,450) (15,000) 45,296 6,703 (382) 51,617 (574) 51,043 (14,072) 36,972 2,980 39,952 36,066 8,658 67 44,791 (4,657) 40,134 34,625 34,625 49,930 9,947 1,064 60,941 (1,497) 59,445 48,254 10,249 58,503 40,271 11,557 3,817 55,644 (94) 55,550 (10,081) 45,469 45,469 39,550 12,575 3,817 55,941 (90) 55,852 (9,865) 45,987 45,987 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY11E

(5,509) (11,190)

(45,296) (36,651) (45,216) (33,450) (15,000)

1,392 (13,188)

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 9: Key Ratios

Y/E Mar FY08 29.2 28.0 26.7 15.5 20.6 24.9 33.4 21.1 24.9 33.4 1.0 (20.2) 21.9 79.1 37.0 286.2 359.3 30.0 997.3 0.5 0.3 21.4 7.2 2.1 4.7 1.5 1.1 FY09 23.5 21.3 19.6 11.9 8.4 (12.7) (16.7) 15.0 16.3 21.1 0.9 (11.0) 16.3 70.8 43.4 238.5 332.9 30.0 1,261.9 0.4 0.2 12.6 8.6 1.6 5.3 1.3 1.0 FY10 29.0 26.7 25.0 13.8 8.3 33.7 26.2 16.4 21.6 22.9 0.8 (15.7) 16.1 71.2 39.4 301.0 409.4 30.0 1,365.8 0.3 (0.1) 15.9 6.8 1.5 3.9 1.2 0.9 FY11E 23.7 21.1 19.3 10.0 4.9 (14.2) (24.5) 12.0 14.8 15.5 0.8 (15.7) 16.1 71.2 39.4 227.2 353.3 30.0 1,557.9 0.3 (0.1) 11.6 9.1 1.3 4.6 1.1 0.9 FY12E 22.8 19.8 18.1 9.4 4.7 0.6 (1.3) 10.6 13.3 13.6 0.7 (15.7) 16.1 71.2 39.4 224.2 361.3 30.0 1,746.9 0.2 (0.2) 11.4 9.2 1.2 4.4 1.0 0.9 FY10 917 124,189 125,246 37,548 55,992 20,057 238,844 FY11E 917 141,801 142,859 44,402 58,162 22,557 267,979 FY12E 917 159,137 160,194 51,027 57,662 25,057 293,940 Margin Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBIT Margin PBT Margin PAT Margin Growth Ratios (%) Revenues EBITDA Net Profit Return Ratios (%) ROCE ROIC ROE Turnover Ratios Asset turnover ratio (x) Working capital cycle (days) Avg collection period (days) Avg payment period (days) Inventory holding (days) Per share (Rs) Fully diluted EPS CEPS DPS Book Value Solvency ratios Debt/ Equity Net Debt/Equity Interest coverage Valuation parameters (x) P/E P/BV EV/ EBITDA EV/ Sales M-Cap/ Sales

Exhibit 7: Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Share Capital Reserves Shareholders' fund Minority Interest Debt Deferred Tax Liability Total Capital Employed FY08 917 90,462 91,438 12,760 55,771 11,575 171,544 FY09 917 114,662 115,701 16,704 59,162 15,919 207,485

Gross Block Accumulated dep. Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets Investments Inventories Debtors Cash & bank balances Loans and Advances Total current assets Current lia & provisions Net current assets Misc. Expenditure Total Assets

157,198 63,397 93,801 55,335 149,136 16,607 17,443 10,185 2,903 12,047 42,578 36,783 5,795 171,544

210,623 68,254 142,369 19,822 162,191 35,626 22,210 8,239 2,270 12,615 45,333 35,685 9,649 207,485

229,509 71,646 157,864 7,734 165,598 66,759 21,835 8,803 2,370 12,362 45,370 38,891 6,478 238,844

245,559 83,202 162,357 25,134 187,491 66,759 22,905 9,234 9,520 12,870 54,529 40,797 13,732 267,979

265,559 95,777 169,782 20,134 189,916 66,759 23,990 9,672 32,960 13,370 79,992 42,730 37,262 293,940

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Grasim Industries

Appendix A
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Grasim Industries

Key to Centrum Investment Rankings

Buy: Expected outperform Nifty by>15%, Accumulate: Expected to outperform Nifty by +5 to 15%, Hold: Expected to outperform Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty by>15%

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Grasim Industries