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BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012 Illustration by Dwarka Nath Sinha BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
Disclaimer
BRIDGE TO INDIA
2012 BRIDGE TO INDIA Energy Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved June 2012, New Delhi Cover Illustration Dwarka Nath Sinha Design & Layout Manasi Lamba To sponsor the November 2012 edition of the INDIA SOLAR HANDBOOK, contact Nehmat Kaur nehmat.kaur@bridgetoindia.com No part of the INDIA SOLAR HANDBOOK may be used or reproduced in any manner or in any form or by any means without mentioning its original source. BRIDGE TO INDIA is not herein engaged in rendering professional advice and services to you. BRIDGE TO INDIA makes no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the ownership, accuracy, or adequacy of the content of this product. BRIDGE TO INDIA shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or for lost revenues or profits, whether or not advised of the possibility of such damages or losses and regardless of the theory of liability. For further enquiries, please contact: contact@bridgetoindia.com BRIDGE TO INDIA S-181, Panchsheel Park New Delhi 110017 India www.bridgetoindia.com Read our blog for up-to-date market insights and opinions www.bridgetoindia.com/blog Follow us on Facebook www.facebook.com/bridgetoindia Follow us on Twitter www.twitter.com/bridgetoindia Track the Indian solar market with our reports www.bridgetoindia.com/reports
Contents
Interviews
Dr. Thomas A. Louis, SGS Group Management Mr. Ravi Khanna, Aditya Birla Group Mr. Marco Winsberger, Skytron Energy Mr. Jens Burgtorf, GIZ Mr. Jan Marc Raitz, IBC Solar Mr. Oliver Herzog and Dr. Tobias Engelmeier, BRIDGE TO INDIA 22 24 26 28 29 31
Annexure
33
tend to be lower in these countries. The introduction of highly attractive FiTs and the maturing of the industry have contributed to large-scale capacity additions in these markets. The current economic slowdown in many European countries, especially Spain and Italy, has contributed to a significant reduction of FiTs, making these markets less attractive. Also, with large capacities of solar power already installed, the growth in these markets has been declining for the past few years. As a result, the PV industry is now engaging with new markets that offer opportunities for future growth and give them a more diversified portfolio of market risks.
The current economic slowdown in many European countries, especially Spain and Italy, has contributed to a significant reduction of FiTs, making these markets less attractive.
New Markets
Many new markets like India, Australia or South Africa have the advantage of
Driver
FiT (per kWh) RPO Capital Subsidy
Mature markets
California (US) Germany Italy Spain 5.2 2.7 3.3 3.7 ~M10 (0.15) ~M09 (0.14) ~M11 (0.17) ~M11 (0.17) Yes No Yes Yes Tax credit Yes Yes Yes
New Markets
India South Africa Australia Ontario (Canada) 5.5 5.2 5.5 3.1 Yes (High) Yes No No M08 (0.12) M11 (0.17) M12 (0.18) M16 (0.25)* Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Source: REN 21 Global Status Report, BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis *For projects less than 10MW
Mature Markets
The PV market in these countries is based on two main drivers: their commitment to reduce their carbon footprint and their desire to reduce the dependency on imported fossil fuel. The average solar irradiation levels
01 BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
high solar irradiation. Their current installed capacities are still negligible as compared to the mature markets. Growth of solar power in these markets has been initiated by new government initiatives through FiTs and Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs).
India, with liberalized policies for the power sector, a high potential for solar power and a variety of central and state-level incentive systems, presents a particularly good opportunity for the solar industry.
South Africa has high solar resources and is an upcoming market for solar. The country has opted to buy alternate energy from private players to alleviate their energy constraints. So far, 1,450MW of solar PV and 200MW of CSP has been allocated by the government. This allocation has been done under two windows. Recently, nine solar PV projects totaling 417MW and one 50MW CSP project have been allocated under the second window. An additional 401.47MW is still to be allocated. Australia has some of the highest average solar irradiation levels in the world and has a competitive, open electricity market. The remote locations in Australia, which offer the best solar resource, however, often lack grid and road infrastructure. The Australian solar market is dominated by rooftop installations. There are over 500,000 solar PV installations on Australian homes and schools. Ontario (Canada) is a fast emerging solar market with an expected installed solar PV capacity of 2,800MW by 2015. The capacity
addition is mainly driven by the FiT policy. The FiT policy was introduced in 2009 but is only applicable for projects less than 10MW. The tariff offered for ground mounted solar PV project is around M16 (O 0.24)/kWh, which is one of the highest in the world. The market potential for large solar PV projects without government support is low. India, with liberal policies for the power sector, a high potential for solar power and a variety of central and state-level incentive schemes presents a particularly good opportunity for the solar industry. The market is supported by FiTs to provide an initial thrust. Further, by introducing the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) mechanism and RPOs, the government is keen to create demand-driven market for solar power in India. Reversebidding auctions in some programs have significantly reduced the FiTs, affecting the profitability of projects. In the long-term, however, solar power is a key strategic choice for this energystrapped, large and high growth economy.
CALIFORNIA
02
03
04
bidding process was initiated for the allocation of the projects. This process has since been made the norm for project allocations under the NSM. Based on this, developers that offered the highest discount on the initial tariff of M17.91 (0.27)/kWh were awarded the projects. As a result, tariffs fell by around 30% to an average of M12 (0.18)/kWh. From the first batch of allocations, 125MW of PV was installed and commissioned as of May 2012 and an additional 20MW is expected to come up in the months ahead. Project allocations for batch two of phase one of the NSM were made in early December 2011. For this, a capacity of 350MW of PV was allocated and PPAs were signed for 340MW in January 2012. In this batch, due to competitive bidding, the tariffs fell by a further 30% to an average tariff of M8.2 (0.12)/kWh. The deadline for the completion of these projects is March 2013. The NSM has also introduced the concept of bundling, where the government (through the state-owned power trading company NVVN) will buy the high cost solar power from developers and then bundle it with unallocated low cost thermal power from the federally owned power generator NTPC. This power will then be sold at an average cost of around M4 (0.06)/ kWh to the state utilities. In order to reduce the payment default risks inherent in Power Purchase
Content
I. Indias Solar Market Overview and Latest Market Developments Status of the States Focus on Resale of PPAs in Gujarat Industry Developments Challenges and Outlook II. Indepth Expert Interview III. Key Question Answered What is the future of the Domestic Content Requirement in India? To purchase our reports or subscribe to the India Solar Compass, please visit the Reports section on www. bridgetoindia.com or send an email to mohit.anand@bridgetoindia.com
MNRE National Solar Mission, Guidelines for New Grid Connected Solar Power Projects, July 2010
05
Agreements (PPAs) with the financially weak State Electricity Boards (SEBs), the federal government later approved a Payment Security Scheme worth M4.86 billion (74m) for projects under phase one of the NSM. The scheme is implemented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), which will allocate the funds to the NVVN through a Solar Payment Security Account (SPSA).
December 31st 2011. A capacity of 654.81MW of PV has been installed as of May 2012.
The Gujarat Solar Policy is the only policy, which has awarded projects with a fixed FiT, unlike the NSM. Land acquisition, availability of grid infrastructure and financial closure have proved to be the biggest challenges in project execution in Gujarat. Only about 14% of the allocated capacity had come online by Gujarat Solar Policy the scheduled deadline of December 31st 2011. Thereafter, a new tariff The state of Gujarat was the first Indian regime was applied to projects to state to launch its own solar policy in be commissioned after January 28th 2009. The current policy is operative 2012. These tariffs are lower than until 2014 but a new policy is expected those under the first two phases of the before it ends. The initial target was Gujarat solar policy. to achieve an installed capacity of 500MW. Given the interest from a Due to delays in project execution, large number of developers and an some developers failed to notify assumption that some projects may the Gujarat Energy Transmission not be implemented, the government Corporation Limited (GETCO) to allocated projects worth 958.5MW provide for grid connectivity on time. of PV. Most projects were delayed Though these projects were installed and only about 132MW of PV met the before the deadline of January 28th original commissioning deadline of 2012, they could not be commissioned.
06
The state authorities allowed for these projects to be considered as provisionally commissioned, exempting them from the new and lower tariff regime. A total of 604.9MW of PV projects were given official commissioning certificates in April 2012 during the inauguration of the Charanka Solar Park in Patan district of Gujarat. As of May 2012, 654.81MW has been commissioned in Gujarat. Gujarat is a power surplus state and does not need to allocate more
The submission of the Request for Selection (RfS) for plants was expected to take place by February 2012 but the process has been delayed indefinitely. According to the RfS document, the competitive bidding for the 250MW worth of projects will include 50 rooftop projects of 1MW each, 100MW of Solar PV and 100MW worth of CSP projects. Plant sizes will be a minimum of 5MW and maximum of 10MW for PV and a maximum of 50MW for CSP.
Gujarat tariffs for the new control period starting Jan 29th 2012
Proposed Tariff in M/kWh 12 years
9.98 11.25
13 yearsl L evelized*
7.00 7.50 (9.28) (10.37) 11.14 12.44 NA (11.55) (12.91)
*The levelized tariff is not applicable for MW scale projects; only applicable for kilowatt scale projects
projects this year to meet its RPO requirements. In spite of this, certain state officials have communicated publicly that Gujarat will continue to promote solar power. Developers are now awaiting new phase three allocations in Gujarat, expected for fall of 2012. More than a 1,000MW worth of projects have pre-registered with the government for any future allocations.
The Rajasthan Solar Policy has incorporated some lessons from forerunners like the NSM and the Gujarat Solar Policy. It does not have the 5MW limit on individual PV projects which made the NSM less attractive to large players but, unlike the Gujarat policy, it has placed fixed limits of 61MW on the total capacity allocation to encourage competition among developers. The policy also addresses the concerns of developers with regard to the allocation of land and water, availability of a transmission network and the localized supply chain. The policy promotes domestic manufacturing by providing incentives for developers with manufacturing facilities in Rajasthan. PV projects worth 200MW have been planned for allotment to developers planning to build manufacturing facilities in Rajasthan. These projects are required to use the modules manufactured inhouse. These projects have yet to be made available for allocations.
07
Due to its high irradiation levels and availability of space, Rajasthan will likely become the hub of solar power generation in India. Under NSM phase one batch one, out of 145MW of solar PV projects selected, 70% are in Rajasthan. Under phase one batch two of the NSM the state has already attracted around 60% of the bids for projects and is likely to attract more developers under its state policy.
determination of the L1 price (the lowest quoted selling price in M per kWh of electricity) the successful bidder had the option to take the additional four projects (each of 5MW) at the L1 price. To avail this option, the bidder would have to show a net worth equal to five times of the net worth that was required for a single project of 5MW. The aggregate net worth required for being selected for all five units (a total of 25MW) was M700m (10.8m). The potential to obtain all 25MW has driven companies to bid very aggressively. The bid results were announced on February 7th 2012. A record M7 (0.1)/kWh from Alex Green Energy has been the lowest bid and they have taken up all of the 25MW allocated.
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh came out with a tender to allocate 200MW of solar PV projects through a reverse bidding process on December 14th 2011. This allocation was not guided by a comprehensive solar policy. Madhya Pradesh received bids totalling 430MW from twelve developers. Out of the proposed 200MW only 125MW has been allocated and 75MW has been reserved for previously signed MoUs. Alpha Infra emerged as the lowest bidder quoting a tariff of M7.90/kWh (0.121/kWh) for a 20MW project. Welspun quoted M8.05/kWh (0.124/ kWh) for two projects of 50MW each and one project of 25MW. Welspun was finally allocated 105MW capacity. These were the only two developers that were allocated projects. List of bidders who were not allocated projects included ACME, Azure, Simplex Infra, Sai Sudheer, Arjun Green Power, ESSEL Infra and IL&FS.
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FiT
Project Sizes
NSM
500MW by 2013
Average FiT for first batch: M12.5(0.19) per kWh For second batch: M8.20 (0.12) per kWh
Gujarat
500MW by 2014
Fixed FiT on M15 (0.23) per kWh for first come the first 12 basis years and M5 (0.07) per kWh for the next13 years. New tariff for delayed projects Reverse competitive bidding Bidding process for 150MW PV indefinitely delayed
No
700MW
Rajasthan
300MW by 2013
250MW
Karnataka
126MW by 2013
No
80MW
Odisha
FiT for single 25MW allocation: M7 (0.1)/ kWh Average FiT: M9.5 (0.14)/ kWh
Madhya Pradesh
Reverse bidding
55MW
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PV PROJECTS
COMMISSIONED
654.81MW
RAJASTHAN
NSM batch I NSM batch II Migration projects RPSSGP GBI Direct RPO NSM batch I GBI State Policy
235 MW
KARNATAKA
State Solar Policy announced in July 2011 Allocations announced in April 2012 (60MW solar PV and 20MW solar thermal) Deadline for commissioning October 2013 Allocation through reverse bidding. Not guided by policy. Deadline for commissioning is Jun 2013 for projects up to 25MW and June 2014 for projects greater than 25MW Allocation through reverse bidding. Not guided by policy. Deadline for commissioning is August 2013
MADHYA PRADESH
State allocations RPSSGP REC Mechanism NSM batch I RPSSGP State allocations
ODISHA
5MW 8MW
TOP PERFORMERS
MAHARASHTRA
Broad Renewable Energy Policy, No policy NSM batch I NSM batch II specific to solar energy Migration projects RPSSGP Direct RPO
150MW
TAMIL NADU
NSM batch I RPSSGP GBI NSM batch I NSM batch II RPSSGP Direct Agreement GBI RPSSGP
5MW 5MW
ANDHRA PRADESH
Direct agreements likely Memorandum signed with welspun for a 100MW project
Potential Risers
HARYANA
Broad renewable energy policy, No policy specific to solar energy No state solar policy
UTTAR PRADESH
5MW 8MW
2MW 2MW
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PV PROJECTS
STATE
PUNJAB
PPAs SIGNED
8.5MW 7MW
UTTARAKHAND
7MW
5MW
No state solar policy No state solar policy No state solar policy No state solar policy (Rooftop projects initiated by MIREDA) No solar policy yet, notified their RPO requirments. Solar rooftop policy expected. Draft solar policy (Not formalized) Projects to be developed under NSM off-grid and RPSSGP Existing broad renewable energy policy Draft solar policy (Not formalized) Draft solar policy (Not formalized)
DELHI
Direct RPO
2MW
2MW
No development so far
SLOW MOVERS
PUDUCHERRY ASSAM
No state solar policy. No state solar policy No development so far No development so far No development so far
HIMACHAL PRADESH No state solar policy ARUNACHAL PRADESH NAGALAND MEGHALAYA No state solar policy
No state solar policy No state solar policy No state solar policy No state solar policy Only central renewable energy policy Total
No development so far No development so far No development so far No development so far No development so far 2,274.25MW 515MW 976.56MW
non movers
Direct RPO: Projects initiated to fulfill RPO obligations (project specific FiTs negotiated between utility & developers) NSM: First batch of projects allotted under phase-1 of the NSM (includes migration projects) RPSSGP: Rooftop & Small Solar Power Generation Program under NSM GBI: Projects under MNRE GBI scheme * We do not expect that all projects that have attained financial closure will be constructed and commissioned.
A distribution utility, which distributes 1 million kWh of electricity in a year, is obligated to obtain 2,500 kWh of these from solar energy.
Gujarat
1.00%
451 366
0.60% 166
Rajasthan 0.50% 152 Karnataka 0.25% Maharashtra 0.25% Tamil Nadu 0.25% 87 182 45 6
Punjab 0.07%
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
The current REC floor and forbearance prices are only applicable through 2017.
- distribution licensees, open access and captive consumers (1MW and above) - have to have as a percentage of their total available electricity. Currently, these are set at around 0.25% of the total consumption of state utilities and vary across states. A distribution utility, which distributes 1 million kWh of electricity in a year, is obligated to obtain 2,500 kWh of these from solar energy. It can meet this obligation by purchasing the required quantity of solar power directly from producers. Alternatively, it can buy solar RECs to fulfill its RPOs.
Further, power producers that have begun to sell power at a preferential FIT are not allowed to later switch to the REC mechanism. The REC market is yet to pick up in India. The main challenge it faces, is the lack of a long-term predictability of REC pricing. The CERC has set a floor price of M9,300 (143) and a forbearance price of M13,400 (206) per REC for the period of 20122017. The current REC floor and forbearance prices are only applicable through 2017. As a result, developers who build their case on RECs face problems in raising debt because they are unable to project their returns accurately for the loan repayment period, which in India is typically up to ten years.
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At the moment players are unclear about the expected demand and supply of RECs. This is closely linked to the enforcement of the RPOs on distribution licensees, captive consumers and open access consumers. If RPOs are enforced effectively, distribution licensees like Tata Power and Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd. (MSEDCL) will develop their own projects to meet their obligations. This is because they have a very high demand for power and have the knowhow to execute power projects. On the other hand, captive consumers and open access consumers with small demand will prefer to buy RECs. This is because solar RPOs are only 0.25% of total electricity consumption. For a 1MW captive consumer, this would translate to 2.5 kW of solar RPO. Such capacity is too small to be developed
commercially. Such players would rather buy the RECs on the exchange than develop solar capacity. The REC market will grow once the solar market strengthens in India and when longer-term price signals are available. The market is also looking to the government for making changes in the REC policy. Currently the RPOs which create the primary market for the RECs have to be fulfilled on a yearly basis. As a result, obligated entities go to the market to purchase RECs only at the end of a financial year. This creates a spike in the cash flows of projects rather than continuous cash flows throughout the year.
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Domestic
Industrial
Commercial
40 30 20
Financial Investor
IRR w/o REC IRR with REC
10 0
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
Strategic Investor
9.5
10
LCOE (INR)
14
1,696
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
1,266
STRATEGIC CONSULTING
BRIDGE TO INDIAs Strategic Consulting expertise lies in assisting international clients to engage the Indian market in the field of renewable energy, especially solar energy. We combine strong subject specific knowledge with an interdisciplinary approach, and bring together the financial, technical, socio-economic, regulatory and entrepreneurial aspects of business. We develop viable, successful and customized business models, strategies and specific opportunities that are adapted to the Indian market. Our clients include REC, BOSCH, IBC Solar and Pairan amongst others. With its extensive industry network, market insights and project knowledge on demand growth and projections, BRIDGE TO INDIA is able to provide customized solutions to generate tangible success for its clients. Our work encompasses the following areas: Market entry advisory Competitive analysis Business model development Partnerships M&A advisory For more information, visit: www. bridgetoindia.com/consulting or contact tobias.engelmeier@ bridgetoindia.com
1000 500 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Overview of Segments
Feed in Tariff (FiT) This segment has provided the viable project development opportunities in the market until now. FiT project installation in India has been driven by the NSM and the Gujarat Solar Policy. Gujarat has been the largest contributor of Indias total installed capacity. States like Karnataka, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh have allocated projects under the FiT mechanism. Going forward, NSM will be the biggest contributor to capacity addition for the FiT segment. More than 200 projects developers have been allocated projects under preferential FiT in India. Welspun, Azure Power, ACME Telepower, Mahindra Solar One, Lanco, Green Infra and Sun Edison among others have been the leading project developers in India. Projected market size till 2016 is 4.5GW
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RPO (REC) This segment consists of projects that will generate solar RECs and sell them on the power exchange. Such projects are driven by RPOs of states and are thus termed as RPO (REC). This segment is yet to take off because of a lack of financing for such projects. The biggest hurdle has been the clarity on revenue beyond 2017. The countrys first solar Renewable Energy Certificates were issued on May 24th 2012 to M&B Switchgear. Getting the certificates is a two-step process - first is the accreditation with the State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) and then the registration by the National Load Dispatch Centre (NLDC). M&B Switchgear is the first project to be registerd and four other projects have been registered since. Jain Irrigation has been registered for a 8.5 MW project in Maharashtra, Kanoria Chemicals for a 5 MW project in Rajasthan, Gupta Suns for a 0.5 MW project in Madhya Pradesh and Numeric Power Systems for a 1 MW project in Tamil Nadu. Projected market size till 2016 is 0.3GW RPO (SP) Each state has a yearly Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO). This is guided by the aim to source 3% of the total power through solar by 2022. States may set up their own plants to generate solar power in order to meet this requirement. BRIDGE TO INDIA terms such projects as RPO Solar Power or RPO (SP). NTPC is working on projects planned in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Mahagenco is constructing a solar project in Maharashtra to meet the states RPO. Projected market size till 2016 is 1.0GW RPO (thermal captive) Captive thermal power producers have a solar specific RPO requirement. Requirements for thermal captive
power producers are enforced by the state regulators. Industries like mining, chemicals and cement have large captive power generation capacities. Vedanta Aluminium, Jindal Stainless, SAIL, Aditya Birla Group, NALCO and BALCO among others are the largest obligated entities in India. Projected market size till 2016 is 1.0GW Commercial Captive Commercial tariffs in India are as high as M9/kWh ( 0.14/kWh) in certain states and commercial hubs. Solar power has already reached commercial parity in some locations across India. This combined with REC mechanism, makes for financially attractive plants. As per BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis, this market is poised to take off from 2014 onwards as Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs) start selling power with this business model. Net metering will be a key driving factor of this business model. Projected market size till 2016 is 2.3GW Telecom towers India will have 550,000 telecom towers by 2015. 33% of the currently installed towers are completely off-grid and 23% of them are situated in regions with less than14 hours of grid supply on average. Based on the current costs of diesel generated-units of electricity and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar PV-generated units, there already exists a significant gap between the costs per unit generated from the two sources. This happens to be the case for both offgrid tower sites as well as the gridinteractive sites with poor grid supply. This has made telecom tower segment as a front-runner among diesel-parity based market segments for solar PV solutions. Projected market size till 2016 is 1.9GW
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As part of market intelligence, we provide comprehensive, analytical and up-to-date research on the Indian market to our customers through the INDIA SOLAR COMPASS our quarterly solar market report. Through the INDIA SOLAR NAVIGATOR, our online subscription database on the solar market, we provide indepth and strategic market insight to large international clients who are looking at the Indian market as part of their long term strategy. In addition, market intelligence at BRIDGE TO INDIA has authored various reports on contract basis for large international agencies including DENA, REN 21, GIZ and Greentech Media. The Market Intelligence team at BRIDGE TO INDIA combines various expertise, experiences and skill sets from diverse academic backgrounds to provide clients the best analysis in the industry.
Tobias is deeply concerned about the resource use of Indias rapidly growing economy and believes in finding business-driven and Indiaspecific models to cope with this. The focus is on promoting efficiency and intelligent reuse in the area of renewable energy. Tobias is also very much interested in governance structures and the issue of climate change in India. Prior to setting up BRIDGE TO INDIA, he has worked for three years in the energy sector with a strategy consultancy and written a book on Indian political culture. His PhD is in political science from the South Asia Institute in Heidelberg, Germany. Expertise: Business model development, market entry studies, political structures and decision making processes
Mohit is responsible for the Market Intelligence team at BRIDGE TO INDIA and has significant expertise in analyzing the Indian solar market. With a team of solar experts he leads the development of products like the INDIA SOLAR NAVIGATOR. He also develops solar business opportunities and executes consulting projects on market-entry strategies for international solar companies. He writes regularly for several leading publications about solar power in India. Expertise: Indian solar market analysis, bottom-of-the-pyramid business solutions
At BRIDGE TO INDIA, Kai is part of the Market Intelligence team and is responsible for strategic briefs on the Indian solar market. He consults for international companies on Jasmeet is part of the Market Intelligence team at BRIDGE TO INDIA. He is responsible for the research of projects in the Indian solar market and has significant expertise in analyzing the market. Jasmeet is from an engineering background and has obtained a certification in photovoltaics from the Stanford University. Prior to joining BRIDGE TO INDIA, Jasmeet was the Managing Director at Headway Solar, a technical solar consulting firm. Expertise: Solar projects, project performance, solar industry, business strategy client expectations and the local knowledge about India. Kai holds a diploma degree in economic geography and economics from Marburg/ Germany. Post finishing his education, Kai worked for an international business consultancy company with the focus on market entry strategies for the Indian market, for consumer goods as well as for investment. Expertise : Market entry strategies, industry landscape, supply trends
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Status
The Indian manufacturing industry currently has an overall production capacity of about 1,250MW for modules and 700MW for cells. Indian manufacturing is mostly dependent on exports to international solar markets. Indian manufacturers have been exporting 70% of their cell capacity and 80% of their module production capacity. The cutback of FiTs in Europe and the excessive competition from Chinese suppliers has hit Indian module manufacturers adversely. In the growing domestic market driven by the NSM and the
Gujarat state policy, Indian module suppliers have been able to gain a very small market share. This has led to an underutilization of the Indian module manufacturing capacity. In order to become globally competitive in an increasingly tough market, Indian manufacturers will need to change their business model. They must reduce their costs in production through a capacity ramp up and vertical integration. Maharishi Solar is currently the only Indian company with manufacturing facilities for ingots and wafers; though it has a total capacity of only 15MW.
* Data is only indicative based on industry interviews ; valid as on May 2012 19 BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
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CUSTOMIZED REPORTS
BRIDGE TO INDIA provides in depth market knowledge to clients through customized reports to cover the Indian energy markets. Past, publicly available reports include, among others, an analysis of the Indian energy market for the German Environment Ministry, support for REN21s Global Renewables Status Report, an analysis of the Indian Renewable Energy Market with NREL, GIZ and IRADe, a report on the Indian project development processes for DENA and a report on the Indian solar market with Greentech Media.
PV manufacturing forecast
The PV manufacturing industry in India had grown six-fold from under 200MW in 2007 to a 1,250MW in 2011. This momentum has been broken due to a global oversupply. Large Indian business conglomerates such as Lanco Solar and Birla Surya were planning to build completely integrated manufacturing facilities of capacities as large as 600MW. Currently, most module and upstream expansion plans have either been cancelled or are on hold. Manufacturing in India is expected to regain the growth trajectory after 2014 as the commercial and industrial parity projects in the domestic market take off. Few large manufacturers who
are vertically integrated are expected to dominate the market going forward. Module manufacturers who have been providing EPC and other downstream services are more likely to survive a consolidation. Going forward, a strong domestic supply chain will bring down the cost of raw materials for module production in India. As a result, the domestic ingot and wafer production capacity will be directly reflected in new domestic module manufacturing capacities. New module production capacities worth 2GW or more could be realized from 2015 to 2020. There is no domestic industry for manufacturing equipment in India yet. The Indian PV manufacturing industry is expected to provide an opportunity to the suppliers of PV manufacturing equipment and the turnkey solution providers as and when the market regains momentum.
New module production capacities worth 2GW or more could be realized from 2015 to 2020.
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
21
interviews
Global Business Development Manager Renewable Energy, SGS Group Management Ltd.
Dr. Thomas A. Louis joined SGS Industrial Services as Global Business Development Manager for Renewable Energy in 2012. He has a 20 years track record managing large international programs in renewable energy and power generation and more than 10 years of experience in management consulting and financial services What potential do you see in the Indian solar market and how is India different from other markets? As the largest independent professional services provider in the world with a global reach, a local presence and a strategic interest in renewable power generation, we see major trends favoring growth in the Indian solar market. First, there is increasing electricity consumption per capita, population growth and hence demand for building new power generation capacity. Second, the levelized cost of electricity generation (LCOE) using solar power, whether using photovoltaic (PV) or concentrating solar thermal technology (CST), continues to decrease rapidly, in line with reductions in the cost of core components and overall system cost. Third, India has high levels of irradiation. A favorable legal framework, large areas of suitable land and vast numbers of technically skilled people can potentially contribute to developing, manufacturing and deploying large numbers of power generation plants in India. This could be both grid-connected and standalone plants over a wide geographic area and using state-of-the-art renewable power generation technologies. However, the Indian solar market is very different from European markets with regards to the ability to finance significant investments, reliability of the transmission and distribution network and the experience of key players. The effective collaboration of all the stakeholders is required in
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
order to design, finance, build and connect significant renewable power generation capacity. What module technology is best suited to Indian conditions? The best technology for a solar power plant depends critically on the specific application and circumstances. In some cases, where the tariff structure is progressive and the ability to generate revenues from electricity sold at peak demand is dominant, CST with thermal storage capability has the ability to match electricity supply to demand. Despite CSTs higher LCOE, it may be more attractive to decision-makers than PV. In the case of ground mounted installations and where the cost of land is low, thin-film PV technology is favored due to its low cost per Wattpeak. This is in contrast with the best technology for small, roof-mounted, grid-connected PV installations, dominant in many European countries. In such cases, the cost per m2 and limited space availability favor the use of higher efficiency crystalline silicon PV technology. In addition to the above mentioned considerations (tariff structure, meteorological conditions, availability of land, area related cost) the choice of particular solar power technology that is best for a large country like India will also reflect the future role the country aspires to play in the global supply chain. The question as to what solar power generation technology best meets Indias needs thus cannot be addressed from a single point of view. It all depends on which perspective you take. Do you think solar PV plants in India will perform as per expectations? Whether individual solar power plants perform as per expectations is a matter of professional execution. SGS provides a range of services, such as technical and financial due diligence, which are designed to assure key stakeholders (owners, investors, lenders, regulators) that their
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SGS assists in assessing investments in solar power generation projects and assures the quality of solar power plants. SGS works as an independent global service provider carrying out consultancy, inspection, testing, supervision, monitoring, management, verification and certification services for concentrating solar thermal as well as photovoltaic projects. Our services include site assessment, project development, core component manufacturing, construction and operation. We have more than 70,000 employees and operate a network of over 1,350 offices and laboratories around the world. Tel: +49 (40) 30 10 15 74 Email thomas.louis@sgs.com www.sgs.com
Project developers can improve this bankability by subjecting their work to verification by an independent professional services partner.
requirements are being addressed and performance expectations will be fulfilled. Whether solar power can make a significant contribution to addressing Indias growing demand for electricity, is a more complex question. The success of public incentive programs designed to stimulate the adoption of solar power technologies is often linked to the generation of jobs in respective industries. Such programs require more than projects being diligently planned and professionally executed. The need is to have independent advisors and contracted third party service providers to support public and private players on key decisions. What can project developers do to improve the bankability of their projects in India? The cost of solar power generated electricity is front-loaded, i.e. determined largely by the cost of the system to be built and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) used for financing the project. The system cost is determined by the choice of technology, suppliers and project partners and their professional execution. The WACC is determined by the debt to equity ratio and the respective cost of debt and equity. The more experienced and stronger the partners in the project, the lower the project risk and the more attractive project financing terms will be. The ability to secure project financing through loans, with long payback times and low interest rates, in other words bankability, is a key to
success in every solar project. Project developers can improve this bankability by subjecting their work to verification by an independent professional services partner. The cost of engaging such a partner, whether by the projects developer, investor or owner, lender or bank, or EPC contractor, will certainly be offset by the benefits gained in the form of securing attractive project financing swiftly. What are the key challenges with regard to project execution in India? The choice of local partners, the ability to handle administrative processes, to obtain permits and to effectively deal with counterparty risk, are key to successful project execution. This applies everywhere, but specifically in fast growing markets, which often attract new and inexperienced players. This may be the case in emerging solar power markets such as in India. Here, the price sensitivity of the solar power market and its potential for growth not only attract large, experienced and well known players but also those whose willingness to offer the lowest price may not be matched by their ability to deliver and provide guarantees for lasting solutions at the lowest cost. The challenge is for decision makers to distinguish what appears to be a low price from a genuine low cost offer from a partner with a strategically defendable position and resulting cost advantage. SGS offers independent professional services and support throughout project execution to decision makers when they need to be sure.
The more experienced and stronger the partners in the project, the lower the project risk and the more attractive project financing terms will be.
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Mr. Ravi Khanna serves as Chief Executive Officer of the Solar Power Business of the Aditya Birla Group- a US$35billion corporation and is based in Mumbai, India. Prior to joining the Aditya Birla Group, Ravi worked as the CEO and President of Scatec Solar Oslo, Norway and served as Director Scatec AS. Ravi has also served as Chief Executive Officer of Moser Baer Photovoltaic Ltd., and PV Technologies India Limited. In Moser Baer PV Ravi was responsible for the acquisitions of technology firms and setting up of the technology infrastructure while creating one of the fastest manufacturing capacities in Asia . Ravi served as a member of the Indian PMs solar technology mission and also engaged very closely with MNRE, IREDA and NORAD on development of the future renewable and sustainable energy platforms in India. He has also served on the board of US firms HelioVolt Corporation, Sol Focus, Solaria and Stion Corporation. Why has the Aditya Birla Group decided to develop solar power projects in India? The Aditya Birla Group, US$40 billion premium global corporation operating in 36 countries, is committed to sustainable business practices and environmental conservation. Towards sustainable resource management and furthering the growth of alternative energy in India, the Group has decided to participate in the development of solar power in India. The Group is engaged in many power intensive sectors such as aluminium, cement, carbon black, VSF and chemicals. We have taken a conscious decision to voluntarily align our energy portfolio and ensure that a sizable portion of energy comes from renewable sources.
What are the size of projects that you are looking to develop? Will these be under the NSM or state policies? We are looking at various opportunities independent of scale. Among small scale projects, we have evaluated setting up decentralized solar power projects for community development in and around our industrial townships, mining facilities as well as for our telecom towers. We are also keen on developing large scale projects under the grid connected policies be it National Solar Mission, existing or forthcoming state policies as well as the independent REC/RPO mechanism. As a large business conglomerate, you face RPOs for your different businesses. What is your strategy to meet these obligations? As one of the largest private consumers and captive generators of power, we will of course adhere to all regulatory obligations as they are mandated in the future. However, we are seeking to move proactively to make sure that we can address these obligations promptly and efficiently. In any large corporation, there will be a mix of activities to meet the stated target including purchase of certificates, own generation, purchase of renewable power and so on. Is the solar REC market viable? Are you looking to develop projects based on the REC mechanism? For a business venture a stable regulatory environment is essential. This enables a fair analysis of the market risks to be managed. The REC market today faces certain challenges - the key being the lack of clarity on the enforcement of RPOs and its impact on the REC prices in the future. The regulation itself is a well thought out document, but due to enforcement issues businesses are slow in committing capital on the scale that is required. The market will remain
A US $40 billion corporation, the Aditya Birla Group is in the League of Fortune 500. It is anchored by an extraordinary force of over 133,000 employees, belonging to 42 nationalities. The Aditya Birla Group has been ranked 4th in the world and 1st in Asia Pacific in the Top Companies for Leaders study 2011, conducted by Aon Hewitt, Fortune Magazine and RBL (a strategic HR and leadership Advisory firm). Over 60 per cent of the Groups revenues flow from its overseas operations. It operates in 36 countries. Tel: +91 (22) 24 99 50 00 Email ravi.khanna@adtyabirla.com www.adtyabirla.com
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The key considerations that we look at for the purchase of modules fall under three broad heads quality, effectiveness and price.
stunted without access to capital or finance until the concerns relating to enforcement are addressed. Other problems that are systemic to the power sector such as the development of evacuation infrastructure, intra and interstate transfer of energy and payment from the state distribution companies (DISCOMS) can all be addressed in parallel after the resolution of the key issue of enforcement. We, at the Aditya Birla Group, are keen to develop projects under the REC/RPO mechanism both for sale of power to our units and to other companies that may require such power as well as to supply certificates to the exchange to help facilitate the REC process.
What are the key factors that govern your decision on the purchase of modules? The key considerations that we look at for the purchase of modules fall under three broad heads quality, effectiveness and price. Under quality we look at the warranty and guarantee conditions that the module supplier provides, the rate of degradation and the health of the company backing the module. In cases where we have limited land availability or where land is costly, the efficiency becomes important. Under effectiveness we explore the type of guarantee provided whether it is linear or flat, the size of the bankability reports of the company providing the module and the related balance of system costs for that particular module. Under price considerations, cost, payment terms and delivery schedule are key.
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Mr. Winsbegers professional experience spans a period of 11 years in the solar photovoltaic industry. He started his career as an R&D Engineer at Wuseltronik (predecessor company of Skytron Energy). He has spent 4 years in the position of Sales Director at Skytron Energy and has been Managing Director of Skytron Energy since 2011. According to you, how crucial are monitoring systems to the performance of PV plants in India? Efficient monitoring and supervision is the very backbone of a PV power plant, if considering its 25 years of operating life. In India, we have to cope with a number of adverse environmental effects, such as high temperatures and dust. There are local challenges like limited infrastructure, lack of technical experience, irregular maintenance and the tendency to cut corners on construction to reduce the plant costs. All these are facts that spiral the running costs over the life cycle of the plant. Utility-scale PV power plants consist of thousands of interconnected components. In practice, this makes it extremely difficult to detect or maintain system faults using manual methods. Without a remote, realtime and high-precision monitoring and control system, you will not be able to pinpoint the failure or low performance of a particular string or subsection of the PV plant. Every minute of down-time reduces the plants yield and, in the end, cuts into the owners return on investment. A reliable and accurate monitoring system is a strong and effective tool to secure the investment. Monitoring and supervision systems detect failures and reduced performance instantly, and send alarms to the plant operator. This enables quick fault diagnosis which in turn is the basis for a proper and efficient repair and maintenance management. In this way, technical problems can be detected and
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
corrected immediately. In addition, monitoring systems provide a reliable prognosis of the energy yield. This helps plant owners or investors who have a keen interest in monitoring their assets and investments. What is the response of Indian developers to the use of monitoring systems for projects in India? Indian project developers are not completely aware yet of the real importance of a monitoring system. They underestimate the requirement and consider monitoring and remote supervision as a non-essential investment. Quite often, they rely on the simple monitoring features provided by inverters without considering the long-term solution that would offer remote supervision of several plants on a single platform, and the added benefit of comprehensive analysis and comparison features. In India, very few project developers seem to be aware of the long term effects on energy yields of utility-scale PV power plants that are running without a fully integrated monitoring system. They often consider such monitoring solutions as rather expensive. Yet, they overlook the losses in the normalized yield due to the lack of precise monitoring. In Europe, initially, utility scale plants were typically built without a monitoring system. Later, when monitoring was made mandatory by the utilities, these plants had to be retrofitted. This is gradually changing now as more and more project developers are learning from this past experience with their already commissioned and retrofitted plants. However, even today some large-size plants are being built without monitoring systems due to low budgets and the pressure of completing and commissioning these plants on tight deadlines. Are there a large number of companies offering monitoring systems in India or is the market only just beginning to expand?
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Monitoring, Control & Supervision of Photovoltaic Power Plants - More than 2GWp worldwide rely on skytrons monitoring solutions Our integrated system includes: high-precision PV string current measurement, sensorics for ambient condition measurement, intelligent dc combiner boxes, real-time high-resolution data logging, SCADA platform for multi-vendor multi-site power plant supervision, closed-loop control of active and reactive power by measuring all relevant physical values at the grid connection point as well as a complete life-cycle O&M. Skytrons monitoring concept enables you to increase the availability, flexibility and profitability of your solar installation. We protect your investments! Tel: +49 (30) 68 83 15 90 Fax: +49 (30) 68 83 15 99 9 Email info@skytron-energy.com www.skytron-energy.com
The Indian market for monitoring systems is picking up slowly. With growing project development volumes, the number of experienced technicians in the field of PV is steadily increasing.
The Indian market for monitoring systems is picking up slowly. Many training programs across the country add to the awareness of photovoltaic systems, resulting in increasing demand compared to the past. Large size companies with proficient engineering teams will most likely demand high-end monitoring features for their PV projects. At the same time, the number of companies providing monitoring solutions is also on the rise in India. Some of them are starting with very little experience, whereas others quite often collaborate with an established solution provider. EPC companies increasingly expect a complete package comprising both the solar inverters and the monitoring system monitoring. The current trend is to buy different components from different providers, put them together into a sort of system and sell this to the customer with cost-effectiveness always being the crucial aspect. There are hardly any companies who have developed a monitoring, control and supervision system as an integrated system solution, which covers all the aspects of monitoring and control of both the DC and AC side of the PV plant. What are the challenges Skytron energy has faced as a foreign company entering the Indian market?
real-time remote monitoring, control and supervision systemsolution, on the other hand.Other concerns voiced by PV project developers are things like round-the-clock service, local manufacturing and local presence in India.In the current scenario, low cost and quick delivery are the two main challenges that skytron energy is facing. Prior to our local presence, we had high transport costs and extended delivery due to overseas shipping and customs clearance time. But inspite of this, we have already successfully installed and commissioned over 200MW of PV power with different customers in different states in 2011,and we expect at least a redoubling in 2012. What has been the advantage in partnering with AEG in India? How has it helped both companies? Local presence is essential to being successful in the Indian market. AEG is the parent company of Skytron Energy. This partnership has helped us in increasing the customer base and getting orders for monitoring solutions. By June 2012 we will be ready to manufacture 80% of our monitoring equipment locally in Bangalore where AEG already manufactures their central inverters. This makes a huge impact on reducing delivery time and import costs for our customers. Also, the local service team trained for our system is crucial for us as it allows us to be close to our Indian customers and support them with short reaction times and excellent quality. In addition, AEG has a considerable advantage over several other competitors as it offers the complete solution requested by EPCs, that is to say, they offer both, the solar inverters and the fully integrated monitoring, control and supervision solutions. AEG, in turn, has benefited from Skytrons long-term photovoltaic experience of more than 35 years. All this is essential for a successful and sustainable relationship with our Indian customers.
The Indian market is quite different from the European or American market. New PV project developers need detailed information not only about theproviding company, but also about the PV technology offered. Then, after realizing the importance of a monitoringsystem, the Indian customer usually goes looking around for a cheaper option, forgetting about the quality, the comprehensive functional range and the long-term and reassuring experience that comes with a system solution from our company. I am convinced, though, that only in a few years, PV project companies will fully comprehend the important difference between a mere monitoring function,on the one hand, and a reliable, fully integrated
BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2012
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Since March 2008, Mr. Jens Burgtorf is the Director of the Indo- German Energy Programme (IGEN) of GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH, i. e. German Development Cooperation based in New Delhi. Before joining GIZ, Jens Burgtorf has been Head of the Department Asset Management Energy Production and Waste-to- Energy at City of Munich Municipal Utilities (2004 to 2007) and worked as a freelance energy consultant. From 2005 to 2008, he has been member of the extended Presidency of the German Geothermal Society. How do you rate the Indian solar market in the international context? India is with no doubt one of the most promising markets for solar energy in the world. Nevertheless it will still take some time and efforts to become as attractive as for instance the German PV market has been in the last years. Where do you see the role of PV and CSP technology respectively in India? PV is the technology of choice if you want to invest in solar in India today. Large on-ground PV plants are already under construction and much more in the planning phase. But a hugh potential still lies more or less untouched. This is the sector of roof top mounted PV which added most of the capacity for instance in the German market. I see CSP more as a future market as the technology as much larger requirements with regard to the construction and operation of the plants. This is currently more expensive and restricted to certain areas in India. Nevertheless CSP should come with the option of energy storage, which could supply solar energy on a more continuous basis.
What challenge does the lack of irradiation data hold for bankability of projects in India? What do you see as possible steps to address this challenge? The lack of irradiation currently increases the risk for the investor in solar power plants in India. If you do not know exactly what the irradiation is at the proposed project site the bankability of the project faces significant uncertainties and a possible fall of up to 30 % on the expected power generation. The challenge is already addressed by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, which is already installing a grid of monitoring stations all over India. GIZ is supporting this project and the data received will be made public soon. Will the future of the solar market in India be in the on-grid or off-grid space? The main market will definitely be in the on-grid sector. The electricity demand in India is still growing very fast. Only on-grid installations will be able to contribute to this market significantly. Nevertheless there is a huge potential for off-grid applications as well, be it for remote villages or telecom towers. When and where will solar power be able to compete on purely commercial terms i.e. without government support? We already see examples where solar power can without government support compete for example with diesel-generated electricity. If we see that the price for PV modules will further come down and the cost for fossil fuel on the other hand will continue to rise, it will not take long till competitive solar power is available on a broader basis.
GIZ is a federal enterprise, which supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. GIZ operates in many fields: economic development and employment promotion; governance and democracy; security, reconstruction, peace building and civil conflict transformation; food security, health and basic education; and environmental protection, resource conservation and climate change mitigation. We support our partners with management and logistical services, and act as an intermediary, balancing diverse interests in sensitive contexts. Tel: +49 61 96 79-0 Fax: +49 61 96 79-11 15 Email info@giz.de www.giz.de
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Mr. Jan-Marc Raitz joined IBC SOLAR AG as Director Commercial Department PV-Projects in January 2011. In this position he is in charge of the teams Sales, International Project Development, Commercial Management and Sales Coordination within the business unit PV-Projects. His task is to further develop and to strengthen IBC SOLARs current business internationally. Before joining IBC SOLAR he gathered vast experience in the field of renewable energies. Is there a market for turnkey solar solutions in India? What is IBC SOLARs strategy for the market?
What has been the performance of your plants in India so far? Have they met your expectations? Yes, the plants performances have not only exceeded our expectations; the expectations of our clients have been met by 100% or more. We are proud in receiving feedback from the market stating that our PV installations are among the top performing plants within all of India with a performance ratio by far above 80%. Additionally, we were happy to see that all installations were grid connected in time so that our clients were not facing the danger of losing their initial tariff. Our compact and proven design has been one of the key success factors for the overall excellent performance of the systems. All this could be achieved without any compromise on our IBC quality standards and philosophy. What has been your experience in adapting the technology and Balance of Systems for projects in India? What are the challenges you have faced? It was necessary to adapt ourselves to the Indian market environment and to be willing to learn also from our Indian partners and customers, who have kindly guided us on these first projects within the India PV market. It would not have been wise to simply stick to our German approach on project execution. The openness of our partners, customers and our team to learn from each other has been one of the driving success factors. During the final installation phases we were required to send a high number of highly qualified engineers and site managers to India to guarantee that the systems were set-up in a proper manner and then finally guarantee our quality. What are the EPC and module price developments that you expect in the months ahead in India? The prices will be dictated by the market anyway, but as of today we believe in being competitive with a
Established in 1982 in Bad Staffelstein, Germany, IBC SOLAR is one of the worlds leading photovoltaic systems integrator. Globally, IBC SOLAR has already implemented more than 120,000 ready-to-use photovoltaic installations with a total power of more than 1.7GWp. The scope of these ranges from largescale power plants to on-grid and off-grid systems that supply private residences. Engineering, delivery of all components and construction (EPC) of turnkey power plants make up the project businesses core competencies, in addition, comprehensive consultancy services as well as operation and maintenance of the installations are key services. Since 2008 IBC SOLAR has constructed several multi megawatt power plants under the NSM Policies for leading Indian multinational enterprises such as the Videocon Group. Tel: +49 95 73 92 24 51 9 Email jan-marc.raitz@ibc-solar.com www.ibc-solar.com
We are already considering today the Indian PV solar market, beside our German core market, as one of the strongest international markets with a substantial growth for the coming years. We have successfully executed large scale photovoltaic power plants last year under the National Solar Mission Migration Scheme. With these we have proven our competitiveness under demanding market conditions. We intend to continue on this road and strengthen our EPC capabilities by opening our own office in the city of Mumbai within summer 2012. This will give us more flexibility and control over the so-called local content such as civil works, substructures and erection services. Following that, we intend to develop our own MW scale rooftop projects for which we foresee a bright future in the Indian PV market. Such projects shall be fully developed, pre-financed and built under an EPC regime by us before we finally sell them to interested investors, who are seeking projects on a balance sheet financing approach only. We believe that our combination of first class German engineering and project execution capabilities combined with a pricing competitive in local market conditions will be highly accepted within the Indian PV industry.
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system price of around M84.5 (1.3) /Wp on a turnkey basis for large scale installations. We will be in the position to offer clients a single source solution with product and plant performance guarantees. In addition, these will be backed by first-class bank guarantees. As a result, we expect to be successful in India. Furthermore, we intend to offer operation and maintenance services via our Mumbai offices. This carefree package will provide our customers and their financiers with the required trust to work with IBC SOLAR as one of the leading PV solution providers. Importantly, we have also engaged an Indian cell and module manufacturer for supplying us with IBC crystalline modules that are going to be manufactured in accordance with our specifications and under our quality regime. This partner will undertake contract manufacturing for us. This
will help us to be active in projects with local content requirement without any compromise on plant our product quality. How important are off-grid, rooftop PV solutions for India? When do you think this segment of the market will take off? This market segment is still in its early stages, but can already be regarded as the next growth segment. Large scale rooftop installations are especially attractive to us. Nevertheless, such projects will be a bit more complicated in development and execution. Here we believe we will already have the key answers in hand due to our longlasting experience abroad in this field. Off-grid solutions on a kit basis will also become a standard the next years. Here it will be important to build a good distribution network for being close to the final customer.
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Dr. Tobias Engelmeier founded BRIDGE TO INDIA in 2008 as an integrated Indian solar service provider. He was awarded a doctorate in political science from the South Asia Institute of the University of Heidelberg for his thesis on the relationship between identity and strategy in Indian politics. Prior to his doctorate, he worked for a leading strategy consultancy, where he advised large European utilities on how to engage with the fast-rising market for renewable energies. At BRIDGE TO INDIA, he has provided consultancy services to multinationals as well as SMEs, to institutions, governments and to investors. He has published many reports, articles as well as two books on the topics of India and energy. Mr. Oliver Herzog joined BRIDGE TO INDIA in July 2011 as director. He studied Business Administration with a focus on accounting/controlling and general management at the University of Applied Science in Cologne. During his studies he worked for an international consultancy company with a focus on strategic management and restructuring. After his studies, in January 2004, he joined a leading global renewable energy company, where he worked for eight years. During the last two years he headed the operations of the project development and financing arm in Singapore and India. He set up a trust worth 200m with GE Financial, to invest into renewable energy projects across Asia and built a project pipeline of more than 400MW of PV, wind, small hydro and biogas projects in India. Oliver joined BRIDGE TO INDIA in July 2011 as Director. What is the significance of solar as a resource for India? Dr. Engelmeier Solar in India is crucial. For one, it is the only credible long-term power supply strategy. Fossil fuels are
limited, nuclear power has not kept its promises and wind, biomass and hydropower are limited in potential. In order to meet Indias enormous energy demands, India needs solar power. In addition, solar power can already today help India achieve a better power supply. Irradiation levels are amongst the highest in the world. There is an electricity deficit in India that will cause blackouts for many years to come. So, the fundamentals of solar power in India make sense. This drives the industry. Mr. Herzog It is important to note that solar power in India has already reached grid parity in many places. That means that for certain tariff groups and in certain locations, it already makes sense to add solar power to the overall power mix and thereby reduce the cost of energy, hedge against future tariff hikes and increase the security of power supply. The process to make solar commercially viable has begun and it will spread to the larger parts of the market from here. In our view, this is the real market to look out for. At the same time, however, there are numerous project opportunities available for multi-MW scale projects under various governmental feed-intariff schemes. Here, we work with international investors to develop projects for them as a remittance project developer. What makes the Indian solar market different from the other new as well as existing global markets? Mr. Herzog India, at the moment, is not able to meet its energy requirements. Hence there is a crucial need for every kWh that can be produced. India needs to produce affordable power and not replace power. This makes the Indian market different from any of the early solar markets in Europe or the US. Solar power in India is a necessity, not a choice.
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Dr. Engelmeier Over the last two years, the cost of solar has fallen dramatically. While this is a global phenomenon, India has, through the auction process, been able to closely mirror that drop in prices and reduced margins to a bare minimum. All players along the value chain have stretched themselves more than ever before. This has advanced the case for solar power as it has brought it into the vicinity of parity with other sources of power and has strengthened the case for this technology in India. What is the market potential of the Indian solar industry? How realistic are the growth projections? Mr. Herzog The NSM and various state policies at present have capacity addition plans of more than 20GW until 2022. While still at an early stage with currently around 1GW of installed capacity, we believe that India is on course to reach that target. Commercial parity will further boost the solar market. Our estimate is that by 2016 we will have a total, cumulative installed capacity of more than 12GW across various market segments. Currently, the overall energy structure under the NSM is focussed on larger MW-scale power plants feeding into the grid. The captive market will take off, once a stronger regulatory framework with e.g. net-metering is in place. Dr. Engelmeier Reaching grid parity or commercial parity is going to change the
Over the last two years, the cost of solar has fallen dramatically.
market significantly. This will be an inflection point, and will reset the market potential of solar industry in India, given Indias massive energy demand. Innovation in energy storage technologies will bring a second inflexion point which will boost the decentral systems further. In the short term, a lot will also depend on whether the Renewable Purchase Obligations market will take off and whether there will be a domestic content requirement. We have just written reports on these topics to analyse them in-depth. What are the challenges for the industry at the moment and what can be done to overcome them? Dr. Engelmeier The greatest push would come from a further de-regulation of electricity prices. Indias electricity prices at present are not reflecting the actual costs of generation. A liberation of this market would have two profound effects: it would lead to significant and much-needed investment into grid-infrastructure and it would lead to a rise in power prices, thus making solar a more attractive option. Mr. Herzog The Indian government should also invest more in research. For India to become a global technology leader, the focus should be on de-central applications, low cost applications, mini-grids, rural applications, and storage. Around these challenges and skills, a world class industry can be formed, with a view to replicating Indian models internationally.
The Indian government should also invest more in research. For India to become a global technology leader, the focus should be on decentral applications, low cost applications, minigrids, rural applications, and storage.
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Gujarat Audited Internal Resource Generation of min. M12m (180,000) per MW Details regarding audited reports not released Equity of min. M30m (461,000) per MW Audited financial statements of the last two years (unconsolidated statements if project developers stake in a consortium exceeds 26%) Rajasthan Karnataka Bidding companys net worth required: M30m (461,000) per MW Audited annual turnover of M48m (738,000) per MW during the last 3 business years Equity of min. M20m (308,000) per MW Non-refundable processing fee of M20,000 (307) EMD of M1m (15,400) per MW at the time of proposal submission Non-refundable processing fee of M50,000 (approx. 769) Non-refundable fee of M10,000 (150) towards the cost of the RFP Document Bid Bond of M50,000 (769) per MW at the time of awarding, depending on the discount offered For projects under the RPO-mechanism: Collateral of M500,000 (approx. 7,690) per MW Bank guarantee of M2m (approx. 30,800) per MW For other projects the necessary guarantees are unknown at this stage. However, the requirements are expected to be similar to those under the NSM For projects that do not sell their electricity to the distribution companies of Rajasthan: The RRECL levies additional development fees of M1m (15,000) per MW Refundable guarantees of M100,000 (1,500) in favor of the RRECL. Refund upon successful realization of the project No used PV modules allowed PV modules must be certified in accordance with the IEC (International Electro technical Commission) specifications Specific PV modules output guarantees are mandatory The Bidder must deploy a commercially established technology which has been in use for at least one project in the world. PV modules must be certified in accordance with the IEC (International Electro technical Commission) specifications PBG of M5m (approx. 77,000) at the time of PPA For projects in connection with module production capacities exceeding 25 MW, modules must stem from own production PV modules must be certified in accordance with the IEC (International Electro technical Commission) specifications PBG due Gujarat policy did not define financial closure deadlines -PBG due -Penalty charged for every day of delay First month of delay Second month of delay M30,000 (461) per MW per day M60,000 (922) per MW per day Not implemented up to 3 months 3 to 6 months 6 to 9 months M125,000 (1,920) per MW M250,000 (3,850) per MW M375,000 (5,780) per MW Not implemented Up to 1 month 1-2 month 2-3 months M1m (15,400) per MW M2m (30,800)per MW M2m (30,800) per MW 9 to 15 months M500,000 (7,690) per MW After 3 months M0.1m (1,540) per MW per day
Annexure
Phase
NSM
Financial criteria
Audited financial statements of the last four years (unconsolidated statements if project developers stake in a consortium exceeds 26%)
Earnest Money Deposit (EMD) of M2m (30,800) at the time of participation in the auction
Bid Bond of M50,000 (769) per MW at the time of awarding, depending on the discount offered
Technological criteria
PV modules must be certified in accordance with the IEC (International Electro technical Commission) specifications
Penalties
Failing PPA
Loss of project developments rights EMD, Bid Bond and PBG due
of up to 1 month
NSM
Phase
Milestones
Deadline
RfS
Submission of Proposal
X + 30 days
Reselection
X + 75 days
Selection
Auction Procedure
X + 90 days
Awarding
X + 120 days
LOI/License
N/A
Sourcing
PPA
Financial Closure
Land Reservation
N/A
Final permit Project Developer in accordance with government body Project Developer
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
Commissioning
Commissioning
Legends
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Current total grid connected installed capacity MAP FROM THE INDIA SOLAR COMPASS
ALL INDIA
7% 4% 5%
7.8MW
1%
14%
PV
HARYANA
CSP
2%
25%
PUNJAB
75%
8MW
3MW
UTTARAKHAND
PV
PV 976.56MW
42%
25%
PV
5MW
2.5MW
CSP
29%
RAJASTHAN
20% 3% 6% 18%
DELHI
PV
10MW
PV
71%
45%
55%
CSP 5.5MW
2MW
197MW
PV
53%
UTTAR PRADESH
WEST BENGAL
PV
2MW
37%
PV 654.81MW
63%
62%
4MW
PV
GUJARAT
26%
16%
B RID
13MW
PV
38%
JHARKHAND
19.2MW
PV
4MW
PV
ORISSA
PV
GE N TO I DIA , 20
58%
CHHATTISGARH
2MW
MAHARASHTRA
37%
MADHYA PRADESH
45%
12
PV 16MW
63%
50%
PV 21.75MW
46%
KARNATAKA
50%
10MW
PV
TAMIL NADU
9%
ANDHRA PRADESH
KEY
Gujarat Solar Policy Phase 1 Migration Gujarat Solar Policy Phase 2 NSM Batch 1, Phase 1 Generation Based Incentive Demo Project RPSSGP REC Mechanism
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BRIDGE TO INDIA offers an exciting business proposition for commercial and industrial electricity consumers and rooftop owners in the field of rooftop solar energy. We offer ELECTRICITY CONSUMERS a reduction in your electricity bills and ROOFTOP OWNERS an additional income from your rooftop all at absolutely ZERO INVESTMENT. We will invest in a solar PV plant on your rooftop and provide you with competitively priced, secure power from it.
OUR PROPOSITION
OUR MODEL
BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting company with an entrepreneurial approach based in New Delhi, Munich and Hamburg. Founded in 2008, the company focuses on renewable energy technologies in the Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market intelligence, strategic consulting and project development
services to Indian and international investors, companies and institutions. Through customized solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIA contributes to a sustainable world by implementing the latest technological and systemic innovations where their impact is the highest.
37
BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting company with an entrepreneurial approach based in New Delhi, Munich and Hamburg. Founded in 2008, the company focuses on renewable energy technologies in the Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market intelligence, strategic consulting and project development services to Indian and international investors, companies and institutions. Through customized solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIA contributes to a sustainable world by implementing the latest technological and systemic innovations where their impact is the highest.