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Situation Analysis on Environmental Security

DIALOGUE FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF TRANS-BOUNDARY WATER REGIMES IN SOUTH ASIA

Situation Analysis on Environmental Security


Nilanjan Ghosh
Special Acknowledgement: Professor Jayanta Bandhopadhya

Shahab Enam Khan

Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh-India Initiative

The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, administration, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are authors personal views and do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN. This initiative is supported by the Minister for European Affairs and International Cooperation, the Netherlands.

Published by:

IUCN Asia Regional Office; IUCN Bangladesh Country Office; IUCN India Country Office; IUCN Gland, Switzerland

Copyright:

2012 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Ghosh, N. and Khan, S. E. (2012) Situation Analysis on Environmental Security, Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh-India Initiative, IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature. Ganesh Pangare, Frank van der Valk, Bushra Nishat, Kazimuddin Ahmed Pradip Saha Pratap Pandey Pradip Saha Sheikh Asaduzzaman and A. J. M. Zobaidur Rahman IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Asia Regional Office, Bangkok Bangladesh Country Office, Dhaka India Country Office, New Delhi

Citation:

Coordination: Editorial design: Copy editing: Cover Photo by: Cover design by: Available from:

www.iucn.org/E4L

Preface
Bangladesh and India share three major river systems: the Ganga, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. Along with their tributaries, these rivers drain about 1.75 million sq km of land, with an average runoff of 1,200 cu km. The GBM system also supports over 620 million people. Thus, the need for cooperation on trans-boundary waters is crucial to the future well-being of these millions.

That is precisely the motivation for the Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh- India Initiative (Dialogue for Sustainable Management of Trans-boundary Water Regimes in South Asia) project. IUCN wishes to promote a better understanding of trans-boundary ecosystems between Bangladesh and India, by involving civil society in both counries and by providing a platform to discuss issues common and germane to the region. The overall goal is an improved, integrated management of trans-boundary water regimes in South Asia. The Ecosystems for Life is guided by a Project Advisory Committee (PAC) of eminent persons from Bangladesh and India. This four-and-a-half year initiative is supported by the Minister for European Affairs and International Cooperation, the Netherlands. Ecosystems for Life will develop, through dialogue and research, longer-term relationships between various stakeholder groups within and between the countries. It will develop a common understanding to generate policy options on how to develop and manage natural resources sustainably such that livelihoods and water and food security improve. Inter-disciplinary research studies will be conducted by bringing together experts from various fields from both countries so that relevant issues are holistically grasped. The initiative centres around five broad thematic areas: food security, water productivity and poverty; impacts of climate change; inland navigation; environmental security; and biodiversity conservation.

The first phase of the project concentrated on creating situation analyses on each thematic area. Each analysis set identified core issues vis-a-vis a thematic area, their significance within the IndiaBangladesh geographic focus, research gaps and needs and, ultimately, priority areas for joint research.

Studies were taken up in the later part of 2010 and early 2011. Authors discussed their pointsof-view at a joint exercise; they shared their research. After due PAC review, the ensuing material was further circulated among multiple stakeholders in both countries. All outcomes of this dialogic process are incorporated in the final papers. 16 situation analyses related to the five thematic areas are now complete and ready for publication. We will also subsequently publish summary briefs, based on these studies. The initiative, thus, has taken a big step; now, the agenda for meaningful joint research is clear. IUCN hopes these publications will be useful to academics, researchers and practitioners in the GBM region.
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) region

River Length1 (km)

Ganga 2,510

Brahmaputra 2,900

Meghna 210

Catchment2 (sq km)

Source: 1. Average, based on various data; 2. Joint River Commission figures

Total area of GBM region: 17,21,300 sq km

10,87,300

5,52,000

82,000

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Contents

environmental security | India

Charting a research course Nilanjan Ghosh Special Acknowledgement: Professor Jayanta Bandhopadhya
environmental security | bangladesh

A GBM ecosystem perspective Shahab Enam Khan

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Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

IUCN/Kazimuddin Ahmed

Environmental security | India

Charting a research course


Nilanjan Ghosh

Special Acknowledgement: Professor Jayanta Bandhopadhya

his paper essentially designs a research agenda on environmental security issues concerned with India with respect to its trans-boundary water relations with Bangladesh at the critical interface of ecosystem services-wellbeing linkages. There are, thus, two critical notions to be defined, to put in place the research issues. The first is defining trans-boundary water regime; the second, environmental security. Theerin rests the scope of this study. This paper will first provide a generic definition of environmental security, and then internalise and customise that definition in the related context of trans-boundary water regime, as will be defined here. Growing scarcity of freshwater has created a global trend among stakeholders at all levels to obtain and maintain hegemony over limited water resources, generating more intense disputes over ownership or usage. Water, as a flowing resource, essentially crosses boundaries of various kinds. Recent literature defines trans-boundary water as that flowing across any boundary, including the sectoral. Trans-boundary disputes over water take place between nations, federal states of a nation, districts within a federal state, villages within a district and between sectors. Indeed, such a dispute can happen between micro-level units of a society or an economy, like village-level organizations. On the other hand, sectoral water conflicts have become more frequent. Intersectoral water disputes are not necessarily trans-boundary in the physical sense of the term. They do not literally involve crossing of political boundaries, yet emerge from transfer of water from one sector of use to another. At a certain point in time a finite resource used, say in agriculture, cannot be used for other sectors. In a majority of cases, agriculture accounts for the largest proportion of water consumed. Often, under conditions of scarcity, the reprehensible squandering of water in agriculture causes problems for the urban sector, by reducing the amount of available water. Competing uses of water in industry, irrigation and urban sectors comprise the use of water in an economy. The existing database of literature, at times explicitly, at times tacitly, has acknowledged these competing uses (e.g. Bandyopadhyay 1995; Bouhia 2001; Bandyopadhyay and Mallik, 2003; Kumar et al. 2003; Holden and Thobani, 1996; and many others). However, realisation that urban water crises often arise due to the extensive wastage in the agricultural sector has not really come to the fore except for the account provided by Ghosh (2009).
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 7

In the past two or three decades, intersectoral conflicts have taken a new shape with the steady paradigmatic emergence of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), where allocation of water for ecosystems has increasingly been accepted (Aylward et al., 2005). At a broader scale, therefore, the two major competitors for water use are the economic and ecological sectors. With extensive water use in the economic sector, the environment has suffered, as with every drop of water lost there is a consequent loss in the ecosystem services. As noted by Flessa (2004), in the Colorado Delta and Imperial Valley in the Western United States, and in the northern Gulf of California, the environmental effects of water diversion and conversion to agriculture have been severe. Nearly 500 dams in the USA and elsewhere have already been removed and the movement towards river restoration is accelerating (Gleick, 2000). The Murray-Darling Basin Commission in Australia is also serious about providing financial incentives to farmers to save on their allocation of irrigation water and allow the savings to remain instream (Bandyopadhyay and Perveen, 2008). While many developed nations are recognizing the vital importance of ecosystem services related to water, and hence raising their rationale to keep natural flow unperturbed, the same realization seems to be missing in the context of developing nations. Some such ecological concerns have been raised by concerned water professionals (e.g. Bandyopadhyay and Perveen, 2008) in the context of the proposed interlinking of rivers in India, as will be briefly discussed in this paper. Therefore, on the basis of the available literature, and looking at the nature of the study, the scope of transboundariness in this paper has been delineated in the context of the international political boundary of India and Bangladesh, by further including needs and demands on water across sectors, including what ecosystems require. There also remains the critical task of defining environmental security. This notion has come under policy and strategic considerations since the 1980s mainly for two groups: (1) the environmental policy community, addressing the security implications of environmental change, and (2) the security community, looking at new definitions of national security, particularly in the post-Cold War era. From these perspectives, the Environmental Change and Security Programme of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs quite succinctly appeals, ... Environmental challengessuch as land degradation, deforestation, climate change, and water scarcity and pollutioncan threaten our security. But managing these environmental challenges can also build confidence and contribute to peace.1 Despite such concerns, there hardly exists a proper delineation of environmental security. The initiation to the problems of environmental security is offered by the spatial inequity in distribution of environmental resources across the globe. In fact, the initial endowment and distribution of environmental resources as a potential contributor to conflict has been the subject of considerable research. The literature amply shows evidence of the Malthusian creed of hypothesising scarcity induces disputes as an explanation of environmental conflicts in general (Westing 1986; Homer-Dixon, 1991 and 1994; Gleick, 1993; Richards and Singh, 1997; Hall and Hall, 1998; Rowley 1998). Chalecki (2002) attempted a definition of environmental security in a broader context by defining the notion in terms of the ability of a nation or a society to withstand environmental asset scarcity, environmental risks or adverse changes, or environment-related tensions or conflicts. The idea comes close to Homer-Dixons Ingenuity thesis, where it is stated that the ability of a nation to combat resource scarcity is through generation of new ideas, which he called ingenuity (HomerDixon, 2000). Steiner (2006) expresses that environmental security is an overarching term that entails energy security, climate security, water security, food security, and health security. He defines environmental security as a state when cleaner technologies and renewable energy sources can co8 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

exist with economic development with environmental and social objectives. Myers (1989, 2004 and 2008), a long-standing scholar in the arena of environmental security, feels concerns of environmental security have been changing because of the changing nature of the relation between human society and its ambient environment. Environmental security, therefore, needs to be construed in terms of humankind and its institutions and organizations anywhere and at any time (Myers 2004). This interpretation of Myers (2004) is a very important entry point to the entire discourse on environmental security as, essentially, the interaction of human society with nature and their resulting dynamic relationship have been at the core of post-Cold War interest (Stucker 2006). Human activities have transformed the natural environment to such an extent that in many instances the security of humans themselves has often been threatened as a result. This symbiotic relation between a changing natural environment and security of human societies is one of the ways of looking at environmental security (Myers, 2008, Homer-Dixon, 1999). An important concern here is the social stress created by resource scarcity or extreme natural events, often leading to conflicts. The other important concern is environmental change, that often acts as a stressor at the socio-ecological stratum of human existence (Homer-Dixon, 1990 and 1994). Therefore, a conflictual state may exist within human societies with nature acting as the stressor, while there might also be a state of conflict between the human society and nature that poses a threat on environmental security. The context of conflict within human societies for natural resources is wellevidenced and well-understood from the various cases of water conflicts, conflicts over agricultural land-use, forest rights, and conflicts over oil resources. The less-understood part is related to human interventions in natural resource flows, eventually disrupting ecosystem service flows for short term economic gains in the name of development. As an example, anthropogenic interventions in the natural hydrological flows have often proved counter-productive in the long run, despite yielding short-run economic benefits, as has already been stated earlier. Such interventions have negatively affected human livelihoods further downstream by affecting ecosystem services (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh 2009). These are all concerns for environmental security. Environmental security can thus be defined as a state of absence of conflicts in the complex and interconnected relations in and between the biological, social, economic and cultural processes of human societies and the natural environment. In the process, one may state environmental security depends on dynamics in the natural environment, population change, degree of access to the environmental resources, and so on. Interaction between and among the determinants of environmental security sets the stage for addressing environmental security challenges.

While many developed nations today recognise the vital importance of ecosystem services related to water, the need to keep natural flow unperturbed, the same realisation seems to be missing in developing nations. The latter also face increasing conflicts related to water distribution inequities.
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 9

Trans-boundary water regimes: India with respect to Bangladesh

The boundary between India and Bangladesh runs mainly over the delta of rivers Ganga and Brahmaputra. Flow of water and sediment across the boundary is almost a continuum. Big and small rivers flow across. Most of them outflow into the Bay of Bengal. Essentially all these rivers are parts of a broader ecosystem more aptly delineated as the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin or GBM region (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh, 2009; Bandyopadhyay, 2007). This trans-boundary river system has been subject to disputes over water use at various levels: from international hydro-politics to the most micro-level of water use, extending to sectoral levels of conflict, with the concerns of environmental flows and ecosystem services bringing a new dimension to the conflictual use of water resources. Hence, the concerns of environmental security in the context of the trans-boundary waters entail a study of the dynamics of changes in the natural environment and water usage in the basin, associated drivers of growth in water demand, the understanding and assessment of ecosystem services, and the linkages between ecosystems and livelihoods (including food production and biodiversity). The two major rivers of the GBM basin are the Ganga and the Brahmaputra. With these two rivers and their tributaries flowing beyond national boundaries, they are prone to disputes that are a common feature of international trans-boundary water-courses around the world. The rivers in the entire basin collect water emerging from both the northern and southern Himalaya. The total run-off of the basin gets discharged through numerous channels that drain into the Bay of Bengal and spread roughly between the two mega-cities of Dhaka in Bangladesh and Kolkata in eastern India. The annual run-off of the basin is about 1,150 billion cubic meters (BCM) and the peak outflow is 1,41,000 cumecs at the estuary (Bandyopadhyay 1995). The Ganga originates in the Gaumukh (meaning the mouth of a cow) glacier in the southern Himalaya in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and flows south-eastwards towards Bangladesh. Before crossing over from India to Bangladesh, the Ganga divides itself into two distributaries, the Ganga (which is the main stream) and the Bhagirathi-Hooghly, downstream from the Farakka Barrage. The Bhagirathi-Hooghly flows southwards past the megacity of Kolkata, and the main stream of the Ganga flows eastwards into Bangladesh. As the Ganga enters Bangladesh, its main branch is known as the Padma river until it is joined by the Jamuna river, the name the Brahmaputra assumes in Bangladesh. The Ganga/Padma meets the Meghna river downstream and the total flow enters the estuary known by the name of Meghna. Here, in the process of forming the largest delta in the world, it finally empties into the Bay of Bengal (see Map, p 4). Several large Himalayan tributaries, notably the Kosi, the Gandak, the Karnali, the Mahakali, and so on, join the Ganga from Nepal. The other major river in the GBM basin, the Brahmaputra (the Tsangpo in Tibet) originates from the northern Himalayaa little east of Lake Manasarovar in Tibet (China)and is said to be flowing out of the mouth of a horse (Tamchok Khambab). It flows eastwards along the northern foothills of the Himalaya for about 1,600 km and takes a turn towards the south around the Himalayan peak of Namche Barwa (7,755 m). It then passes through India, flowing south-westwards in the Assam valley, and crosses over to Bangladesh after taking a southward turn. It meets the Ganga near Dhaka. The combined flow then travels further southwards where it is joined by the Meghna a little downstream of Dhaka. The combined flow meets the Bay of Bengal further southwards. Figure 1 shows the hydrographs of the Ganga and the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh. Due to the interaction of the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon with the Himalaya and the hills in northeast India, the eastern parts of the basin receive substantially high rainfall, with Mawsynram in the Meghalaya hills recording 11,873 mm average annual precipitation. In the western
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parts of the basin, semi-arid areas in Rajasthan in India and in the northern parts in the Tibet region of China, annual precipitation can be less than 200 mm. This makes the GBM a basin of large spatial disparity in precipitation (see Map 1, p 12 ), further aggravated by wide temporal inequity, as around 75% of all the rainfall occurs during the two-and-a-half months of monsoon starting mid-June. An interesting feature of the basin is that the two main rivers, the Brahmaputra and the Ganga, carry water from the drier parts of the basin to the regions abundant in rainfall. The monsoon precipitations, which occur from mid-June to mid-September, cause various types of floods in diverse regions of the basin (Bandyopadhyay, 2009). While the higher regions of the basin face the fury of floods from cloud bursts or glacial outbursts, the lower regions get regularly inundated to accommodate the high flows in the rivers that drain the intense rainfall.

A paradox in developmental theory The high level of precipitation, annual run-off, and a large hydro-electric potential of more than 100,000 MW have often been cited as enabling factors for economic development and poverty eradication in the GBM basin (Verghese, 1990). However, it is quite a paradox that the basin, inhabited by as many as 535 million people, stands out as an exception to the traditional theory that relates poverty with water scarcity. The run-off in the GBM basin is higher than in most South Figure 1: Annual discharge hydrograph of the Brahmaputra and the Ganga at Hardinge Bridge and Bahadurabad in 1981 (1000 Cumecs)

50

40

30

20

10

Jan

Feb

Mar

Brahmaputra

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Ganga

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

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Map 1: Rainfall disparity in the GBM region

Asian rivers. Yet, it is the most poverty-stricken in entire South Asia. The basin also supports some of the very large urban centres of South Asia like Delhi, Kanpur, Kolkata, and Dhaka. Between 1991 and 2001, the urban population in Bangladesh grew by 37%, while in Dhaka alone the growth was 55% (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh, 2009). The matter is of no less concern at this stage in terms of poverty and food security. The percentage of population in absolute poverty (defined by daily calorie intake) has increased to 52.5% in 2001, as compared with 49.7% in 1991. In parts of India, the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal in the Ganga sub-basin have been inflicted by higher urban and rural poverty as compared with those lying at the more arid regions of the basin like Haryana and Rajasthan. Moreover, poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood is substantially higher. With GBM basin countries projected to record some of the highest growth of population in South Asia during the first half of the 21st century, it is apprehended that such high growth rates will be a matter of deeper policy concern in terms of water and food security, poverty alleviation, natural resource conservation and eventually the ecosystem services flows (Sharma et al., 2008). So far, the ample water, ample poverty paradox has not received much attention of development professionals. The traditional economic explanation of the causes of the high poverty level has been sought from the damages from the regular annual inundations in the basin. Bandyopadhyay (2009) has raised questions against these explanations on the grounds of the complexity and unexplored links between ecology and development in the context of the basin. Hence, a more realistic and ecologically informed understanding of the relationship, if any, between water management and the high level of poverty in the basin needs to be developed. The commitments by the concerned countries to achieving the Millennium Development Goals and the compulsions posed by the diverse impacts of global climate change on the basin (World Bank ,2009) can be a common point for starting a new mode of thinking on environmental security.

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n How trans-boundary water is used The history of the development of human civilisation in the GBM basin is marked by numerous anthropogenic interventions in hydrological flows. In the process, human societies in the basin have substantially transformed the natural flows and environment of the basin, from the Himalayan uplands to the estuaries, where the highly productive mangrove forest, the Sundarban, is located. This is the largest mangrove forest in the world. The changes in land cover have expressed themselves in the changed hydrological features of the Himalayan rivers (Ives and Messerli, 1989). Many water development projects guided by traditional engineering have been executed in the basinin the forms of barrages and damsever since the arrival of the British engineers in the 1850s. Huge constructions intruded the hydrological flows for the promotion of irrigation and transportation. The establishment of the Thompson Engineering College at Roorkee in the same period provided young Indian students with training in the European tradition of water engineering. Early British projects in the basin were exemplified by the Sarada Barrage, while flood control of the Kosi had been studied in detail by British engineers. Some of the other large interventions by British engineers involved the Upper Ganga Canal that diverted water from the Ganga at Hardwar in Uttarakhand. In 1947, as India was partitioned, the international trans-boundary characteristic of the Ganga and the Brahmaputra was realised. The 1960s witnessed rapid expansion of water development projects primarily motivated by food security concerns of the newly independent nations. This was closely followed by the development of hydro-power projects. The more informal but political role of large projects in the redistribution of river waters should, however, not be underestimated. The rivers emerging from the Himalaya, ie, rivers with snow-melt, became increasingly important as sources of water for the plains during the lean period. As a result structuralist2 interventions, from the traditional engineering perspective, followed over the waters of the GBM basin, primarily guided by the narrow economic objectives. Such structural interventions were frequently based on site selections made several decades back, often during the time the British were here (MoWR, 1989; also see Map 2, p 14).

Hydro-political tension The large structural interventions over the hydrological flows in the GBM basin have hardly taken into consideration the extremely complex and largely unexplored relationship between water and economic development in the GBM basin. At the same time, it ignored the extremely critical issue of the ecosystem services-livelihoods linkages that has been prevalent throughout the basin, and gets even more magnified further downstream in the delta regions. Interestingly, while all these structural interventions are being heralded as vehicles of poverty removal in the basin (Ahmad et al., 2001; Verghese, 1990), the inherent reductionism in vision and the ensuing lack of integrated approach without consideration of ecosystems-livelihoods linkages resulted in further aggravation of human living conditions (Mallik and Bandyopadhyay, 2004). The other critical issue is related to aggravation of social conflicts caused by the anthropogenic interventions in water flows (Rudra, 2004). One of the critical aspects at the forefront of the trans-boundary water relations have been the continued discussions on the water related projects. The most widely discussed trans-boundary projects are the proposed dams on rivers in Nepallike the Kosi, the Karnali, the Mahakali, and so on. Generation of hydro-electricity is added on as an objective for such projects. Water from such projects
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 13

could be transferred to the western and southern parts of India, where it will be used for supporting the high rate of urban-industrial growth. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has been expressing interest in the dams in Nepal for the augmentation of flows in the GangaPadma entering that country. The role and construction of such dams in Nepal is itself a matter of diplomatic negotiation between India and Nepal. The future use of the water that could be stored in such reservoirs in Nepal would be demanded both from the West, and from the East, creating a need for tripartite diplomacy. Map 2: Existing and proposed projects in the GBM region

1 Giri Dam

2 Kishau Dam 4 Tehri Dam

3 Lakhwar-Vyasi Dam 6 Ramganga Dam 7 Kosi Irrigation 9 Narora Dam 10 Nanak Sagar

5 Bhimgoda Headworks 8 New Okhla Dam 11 Haripura Dam 12 Jamrani Dam 14

16 East Baigul Reservoir 17 Sarda Hydel Works 20 Ghaghra Barrage 21 Sarda Barrage 18 Sarda Sagar Stage 1 19 Karnali Dam/Chisapani 22 Sarda Sahayak Project 24 Devighat Weir 25 Seti Reservoir

14 West Seti Dam 15 Ebres

28 Dohrighat Sahayak 1 & 2 29 Bagmati 30 Kamla 31 Sapta Kosi high Dam 32 Kosi Barrage 33 Fulwari 35 Chukha Dam 34 Tista High Dam 37 Sankosh Dam 38 Champamatti 39 Kurjenu Dam 36 Tala Dam

27 Trishulganga Reservoir

42 Puthimarhi 43 Dhansiri 44 Mora 46 Dihang 45 Subansiri 47 Doyang

40 Manas Dam 41 Pagladiya

23 Sarju Nahar Pariyojana 26 Kaligandaki/Gandak Ph 2

48 Joghighopa Barrage 49 Tista Barrage 51 Farakka Barrage

13 Pancheshwar Dam

52 Ganga Barrage

50 Bahadurabad Barrage

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Generation of hydro-electricity by the proposed dams in Nepal, Bhutan, and the Indian Himalaya has been an integral objective with the power to be generated having a ready market in the plains of India. Between Bhutan and India, the agreements on hydro-electricity projects have been heralded as the foundation for economic development to deal with poverty in the mountain country. The question of how to deal with monsoon floods in the basin has remained as an unsolved question to traditional engineering. The traditional perspective of engineering views floods as sources of unmixed damage and loss. In describing floods, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA, 2008) of India pointed out that on an average every year, 7.5 million ha of land is affected, 1,600 lives lost, and damage caused to public utilities is of the order of Rs 8.2 billion (US$147.8 million). However, in the holistic perspective of ecological engineering monsoon flows also provide important ecosystem services that should get recognized. Flood control measures in rivers flowing from Nepal into India, such as the Kosi, have been discussed by engineers for a long time, though the efficacy of such structural control is yet to be clearly established. It is now clear that professional approach requires that diplomatic negotiations and agreements now need to be based on the emerging holistic knowledge on river systems and ecological engineering. Failure to resolve these issues has caused harm to both sides of the border for decades now. Notwithstanding several important publications stressing the need for adopting a holistic approach, the perspective of the governments involved has remained unchanged over decades. The progress in the evolution of new ideas has also been hindered by the lack of open availability of detailed hydrological data for research (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh, 2009). This has obstructed the generation of crucial interdisciplinary knowledge on the complex river systems of the GBM basin. Further, professional criticisms from within water technocracy (eg: Bhattacharya, 1954) were ignored. A series of events on the hydro-political front has actually led to a lack of trust between the co-riparians. While on the one hand, Bangladesh feels that the lack of flow in the summer months causes sedimentation and makes Bangladesh more prone to flood damages, a proposal for linking the Brahmaputra to the Ganga to improve the water flow in the Ganga as part of the larger River Link Project has come to the fore. The proposal for River Link Project (RLP) is another proposal from the traditional engineering perspective (Bandyopadhyay and Parveen, 2008). The proposal that keeps floating, and often disappears, entails constructions for storages and long-distance transfers

In the holistic perspective of ecological engineering monsoon flows also provide important ecosystem services that should get recognized. Flood control measures in rivers flowing from Nepal into India, such as the Kosi, have been discussed by engineers for a long time, though the efficacy of such structural control is yet to be clearly established
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 15

of water, mainly from the GBM basin to river basins in drier areas in western and southern India. At the proposal stage only, this has drawn serious criticism from the perspectives of sustainability and equity (Bandyopadhyay, 2009) and also from that of economics (Alagh et al., 2006). The question, therefore, remains whether the official approach will continue to take investment decisions following a traditional engineering perspective or be willing to accept the emerging holistic perspective of ecological engineering.

Aspects of a two-level game The other important aspect of hydro-diplomacy and environmental security in the context of the GBM basin is that it needs to be understood not merely at an international level, but also at subnational and sectoral levels. This has already been stated earlier, when this report defined the scope of the word trans-boundary in terms of international, sub-national and sectoral boundaries. Water management over the GBM basin requires fundamental changes at the national and the international levels: domestic policies will have to be reformed to rationalize expectation of water availability and use, and transnational (or trans-state) agreements on water sharing must be forged. The importance of the domestic economic policies with their consequence on water use can be assessed from their subsequent impacts on international hydro-politics, as has already been discussed in details in the previous sections. As rightly observed (Richards and Singh, 1997), usually national governments get engaged in a two-level game (eg: Putnam, 1988). They have to deal with their domestic water regimes, and almost simultaneously get into international trans-boundary water negotiations, keeping in view their domestic objectives. On the other hand, international agreements also affect domestic hydropolitical conditions. Therefore, a move in one game will typically have implications for the outcome of the other. The case of the Indian and Bangladesh governments over the trans-boundary waters complies well with this contention. There is no doubt that the domestic economic interests have been the prime drivers of international negotiations as far as the India-Bangladesh trans-boundary water relations are concerned. One critical factor here is the description of the total requirement of the states in the surplus basins, for example, Assam or West Bengal. It is a fact that based on per capita measures dictated by the arithmetical hydrology paradigm, it will be possible to estimate the supply oriented requirements over time and space, but the problem will arise on the requirements that arithmetical hydrology cannot recognize. Take for example, how would one scientifically arrive at the need for minimum flow in Padma (the other name of the Ganga in Bangladesh) or Meghna or the Hooghly-Bhagirathi for

Civil society in India and Bangladesh has consistently pointed out that neither traditional engineering perspectives of large-scale intervention in river flow nor the business as usual ways of managing water are sustainable. The resource is too stressed today, requiring a new approach.
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the sustainability of the livelihoods of the millions involved in fishing in southern Bangladesh and the state of West Bengal? What will be the impact of the diversion of 10% of the lean season flow from surplus river basins (read Ganga) on the groundwater resources and saline incursion in the downstream areas? These estimates are not easy to make. (Bandyopadhyay and Perveen, 2008). On the other hand, a recent Task Force Report of the New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses expresses the strong role of the civil society in Bangladesh in the context of the international dialogues over water sharing with India (IDSA, 2010). The above examples not only hint at a possibility of interstate conflict, but also at an intersectoral conflict (irrigation needs versus livelihoods issues, as also ecosystem services like fisheries nursery function) whose implications will widely be felt in international hydro-politics. This magnifies the two-level dimension of the environmental security concerns over the trans-boundary waters that are to be handled by the national governments. n

Shifting the paradigm: issues

Existing strands of literature reveal that the business as usual way of managing water is unsustainable, and would lead to severe stress, and even conflicts. Such concerns have been expressed from the highest international professional platforms (Cosgrove and Rijsberman, 2000), and in diverse contexts at various points of time by many leading water professionals over the past several years (eg: Biswas, 1976; Falkenmark et al., 2000; Gleick, 1998). With such concerns, the last few years have witnessed the ubiquitous call for a change in the existing visions of water resources development. The new vision, emerging with the continuous accrual of knowledge with upward shifts of the frontiers of the discipline, involves the replacement of the present reductionist and engineering centered paradigm by a new holistic and interdisciplinary notion (Bandyopadhyay, 2004). There still exist the protagonists of the old paradigm who think that the old paradigm can address the new challenges with some adjustments and modifications. It is a fact that the human ability to build bigger and bigger engineering structures to modify the flows of streams and rivers helped the civilization to move ahead. Human control over the aquifers was established through stronger and stronger pumping technologies to take water out from deeper and deeper levels of aquifers. Dams were effectively used for controlling floods and generating hydro-electricity at a very large scale. This offered a reasonable protection against seasonal water shortages and even spatial inequities in water availability. The irrigation canals made it possible for humans to grow food in newer and newer areas as much it enhanced the growing seasons for crops. On the other hand, as demand for water for meeting the basic human needs started being satisfied, forces of development started showing up. Perhaps the gravest effect of the escalating urbanization was felt in the agricultural water use, which encountered manifold increase, over the last two centuries, in order to meet needs of the burgeoning urban population. Traditionally, water has been looked at as a resource occurring in abundance in nature, and hence, increasing demand was never seen as posing any potent threat. Hence, the impression that became predominant emanated from the idea that water scarcity is spatial, and more water could be diverted to the waterscarce zones from the water-rich zones, through appropriate supply augmentation plans. In order for water to be distributed equitably, the traditional thought process provoked the idea of supply expansion plans through interventions in the natural hydrological flows (eg: Rao, 1975). As a result, water resource planning was generally reliant on linear projections of future populations, per capita demand, agricultural production and levels of economic productivity (Gleick, 2000).
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 17

Towards the middle of the last century, serious concerns started being expressed on the longterm wisdom of following such a strategy focused exclusively on the increasing intervention into the hydrological cycle. Despite its impressive short term successes in providing larger supplies, it is increasingly being realized that addressing the new and emerging challenges is no more possible over the long term, unless some fundamental changes take place in the way humans have looked at water resources so far. The business as usual process has started to be feared as counter-productive. There emerged the need for a fundamental change in terms of a new interdisciplinary paradigm that has been constantly gaining ground over the years. The new ways of managing water on the basis of a holistic knowledge base has increasingly been identified as Integrated Water Resource Management.

Integrated management The professional views of water resource management are changing rapidly, based on the scientific analyses of past mistakes and availability of new information. This changing water paradigm (Gleick, 1998; Bandyopadhyay, 2004) represents a real shift in the way humans think about water. The realization of the need for holistic modes of water management has been reflected in some of the policy actions of the developed world, primarily with the dawning of ecological concerns (Gleick, 2000). Continued investments in huge engineering interventions is being challenged by those who believe a higher priority should be assigned to projects that meet basic and unmet human needs for water (Gleick, 1996). USA, the country which started the global trend of building large dams, is following a new trend to take out or decommission dams that either no longer serve a useful purpose or have caused such egregious ecological impacts so as to warrant removal. Nearly 500 dams in the USA and elsewhere have already been removed and the movement towards river restoration is accelerating (Gleick, 2000). Following these paradigmatic shifts in notions worldwide, various other means to conserve water instream is becoming evident in various parts of the world (Gazmuri, 1992). The Murray-Darling Basin Commission in Australia is seriously contemplating on extending financial encouragement to farmers for saving on their allocation of irrigation water and to allow the savings to remain instream (Bandyopadhyay and Perveen, 2004). In another instance, Chiles National Water Code of 1981 established a system of water rights that are transferable and independent of land use and ownership. The most frequent transaction in Chiles water markets is the renting of water between neighbouring farmers with different water requirements (Gazmuri, 1992). Others (eg: Helming and Kuylenstierna, 2001), while cautioning against the damages that can be caused by supply augmentation plans, emphasize that ...Demand side management is therefore slowly becoming a new paradigm for water governance.

The old thought of water for food security, with some use of water by industry or the urban sector is being replaced by the new notion of water for ecosystems. Environmental security concerns point in the same direction, in terms of policy and action.
18 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

The new emerging thought processes in our vision of water recognizes that the old modes of supply development, through large constructions for harnessing the crucial natural resource, are unsustainable. The thought dominating the old paradigm was primarily water for food security associated with some use of water in industry, hydropower, and urban sectors, and supply augmentation plans were thought of as offering the solutions. The new emerging paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) adds a newer dimension to the thought process, by proclaiming the notion of water for ecosystems (Postel, 1996; Postel et al., 1996; Falkenmark et al., 2004; Gleick, 2000). The new paradigm recognises the human society as a subsystem in the biosphere in which water is a key element (Falkenmark 1997 and 2003). The emergence of and transition to the new paradigm for water resources is not free from extensive conflict of ideas and serious struggle for existence of the old and the pressure generated for a change by the emerging situations. However, efforts by professionals have exemplified the fundamental changes in the ways the subject of water resource development and management is being conceptualized (e.g., Falkenmark, 2003; Gleick, 2000; Falkenmark et al., 2000; Cosgrove and Rijsberman, 2000; Biswas, 1976). Emerging paradigm: elements Based on the various contending thoughts and ideas, the notion of IWRM has been conceptualized, and has been presented by Bandyopadhyay (2004) in the following way:

o Water is viewed as an integral part of the global hydrological cycle, and not as a stock of material resource to be used for the satisfaction of human requirements: The old paradigm of water resources development has been dominated by the reductionist engineering perspective that water is a stock of natural resource waiting to be extracted and used. Reductionism is based on the perceived economic benefits from water resources, without showing any consideration to the ecohydrological processes (Bandyopadhyay and Perveen, 2008). With the idea that economic benefits are all-important, water diversion was thought of as the key to development. Water was being developed for supply to the fields to the fullest extent. It has never been thought that every drop of water has an ecological function, which sustains the ecosystem health, and eventually human health, via ecosystem processes. This viewpoint of reductionist engineering is the reason behind the emergence of many of the critical problems faced by water management today. In the new era of the emerging paradigm that is holistic and interdisciplinary in nature, water is viewed in the context of the totality of the global hydrological cycle. It is now being recognized that the non-realization of ecological cost due to water diversion elsewhere is an inbuilt subsidy to use water for economic purposes at will (Flessa, 2004).

o Supply of ever increasing volumes of water is not a pre-requisite for continued economic growth. Hence, solutions to the problems of water resource development need not be searched in supply side management alone. Under the traditional paradigm regime, the availability of increased supplies of water is seen as an essential pre-condition for continuing economic growth. Thus, suggestions for reduced consumption of water are instantly seen as a prescription for declining economic growth (Bandyopadhyay, 2004). The new paradigm, however, suggests the opposite. Economic growth has been delinked from
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 19

o Clear and strict prioritization of various types of needs and demands for water is needed, including those of the ecosystems: an examination of the various descriptions of environmental flows in the Bangladesh-India context. The new and interdisciplinary paradigm assigns clear priorities to the various competing requirements of water. The competing needs primarily involve two levels. One is between the needs of the ecosystems and the needs of the human societies. The other is among the various needs of the human societies itself (Bandyopadhyay, 2004). Setting the right priorities through the understanding of the trade-offs is an important component of water resource management of the present day.

water supply augmentation plans. This delinking of economic growth with the availability of larger water supplies helps in shifting the conceptual focus away from seeking only supply side solutions and to give demand side management of water its overdue importance (Gleick, 2000; Falkenmark et al., 2004).

o There is a need for comprehensive assessment of the water development projects keeping the integrity of the full hydrological cycle. A crucial element of a new and holistic paradigm is the creation of an interdisciplinary knowledge base able to offer non-partisan and comprehensive assessments of the justifications and impacts of water resource development projects (Bandyopadhyay, 2004; Barbier and Thompson, 1998). o A transparent and interdisciplinary knowledge base for the understanding of the social, ecological and economic roles played by water resources is required. In the old paradigm of water resource development, disciplines were not intersecting with each other in a way truly to understand the potential contributions of other areas of competence, not even from closely neighbouring disciplines (Falkenmark et al., 2004). The complexities of the water management problems that include a real understanding of the nature of water resources and their complex links and interrelations with other systems can no longer confine the discipline in the domain of compartmentalized sector and single-disciplinary approaches. Hence, there is the need to devise new and innovative strategies for coping with water problems, involving multidisciplinary approaches (Falkenmark et al., 2004; Bandyopadhyay, 2004).

o Droughts and floods are to be visualized in the wider context of the ecological processes associated with them.

o Appropriate new social and economic instruments for promoting careful and efficient uses of water resources or for the reduction of damage to their quality from pollution should be developed. The new paradigm emphasizes the need for a new economic evaluation of water. The question of pricing of water, the desirability or otherwise of the growing trends of privatization of water resources as the final solution, the ecological economic valuation of the ecosystem services provided by water systems are all part of a rapidly emerging knowledge base of water economics. Integrated water management is rapidly following this new economics of water resources and perceptions are changing rapidly. USA and China, among many other countries, are well into this process. o Accept the need to restructure the institutional frameworks for water resource development at local, state, river basin and national levels for making it equitable, sustainable and participatory.
20

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

These elements are subject to further refinement. Such a list, for the time being, can offer the fundamental guidelines for putting the new paradigm into force. The new emerging paradigm recognises irrigation development has a high environmental price tag (Molden and Fraiture, 2004). Costs range from aquatic ecosystem degradation, fragmentation and desiccation of rivers, and drying up of wetlands. Barbier and Thompson (1998) and Acreman (2000) show values generated by irrigation proved to be less than values generated by the ecosystems they replaced. Lemly et al (2000), in a global study of wetlands, sums it up: The conflict between irrigated agriculture and wildlife conservation has reached a critical point at a global scale. Hence the main competition for water is between agriculture and the environment Rijsberman and Molden, 2001). Falkenmark (2003) stresses that by benefitting from the shared dependence of humans and ecosystems on water, IWRM can integrate land, water and ecosystems and promote the three Es two human dependent ones (social equity and economic efficiency) and one related to the ecosystem (environmental sustainability). As an unbiased catalyst for reconciling these concerns, and prioritising between the competing ends, valuation of the economic vis--vis environmental uses of water becomes critical.

South Asias disconnect There is a clear disconnect between this global change in knowledge, resulting in the paradigmatic shift in water management globally, and official policy practices in South Asia. The adherence to the traditional engineering paradigm is exemplified by the publication Major River Basins of India: an Overview (MoWR, 1989). This document, describing the planned development of surface water and hydro-power projects in the basins in detail, provides another detailed statement of the official engineering agenda for Indias rivers. Quite recognisable in this document is the non-recognition (or ignorance) of the various ecological processes that keep the natural productivity of the riparian ecosystems and contribute to the livelihood of a large number of people (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh, 2009). On a more recent account, the draft Comprehensive Mission Document of National Water Mission (MoWR, 2008), as part of the Indias National Action Plan on Climate Change, is still made from the traditional engineering perspective of looking at rivers for availability and allocation. There is no doubt that what has dominated the thought processes of policy makers are narrowly perceived shortterm economic benefits, for which water infrastructure development is thought to be the key.

The main competition for water today is between humans and the non-human environment. For environmental security, it is necessary to promote the three Es: two human-dependent ones (social equity and economic efficiency) and one related to the ecosystem (environmental sustainability).
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 21

The ineffectiveness of traditional water engineering to bring in development and, hence, the continuing poverty in the GBM basin can be linked to the absence of an ecological perspective, use of an incomplete framework for economics, non-recognition of the long-run economic costs, and ignorance of the ecosystems-livelihoods linkages, at the very least. By not engaging with critical opinions worldwide, the existing view of governmental water engineering has exposed its inability to evolve with time. The result has been an exclusive mode of hydro-diplomacy that has essentially resulted in bilateral negotiations between India and Bangladesh for the downstream flows in the basin, and bilateral talks of India with Nepal and Bhutan (Richards and Singh, 2000). Whereas worldwide there has been a call for taking an ecosystemic approach for integrated river basin management, the bilateral approach to water resource development moves away from considering the entire river basin as the unit for water resource management. Rather, such a fragmented approach not only obliterates the vision of a river basin as an integrated ecosystem, but can also create disputes over water allocation at various levels. The disconnect between the changing paradigm and the South Asian water policy is going to be critical for water management and environmental security in the context of the trans-boundary water relations. With global climate change seriously affecting the hydrology of the Himalayan rivers, water endowment of the rivers and future flows would become more uncertain (World Bank, 2009). Further, the effects of sea-level rise on the coastal ecosystems and estuaries of these rivers will become significant. n

Gaps in knowledge

There are crucial gaps in knowledge that need to be bridged for a more holistic approach to hydrodiplomacy, which is extremely important from the perspective of environmental security in the basin. The gaps in knowledge have revealed themselves in various forms as suggested below.

o Gaps in eco-hydrological knowledge on surface water systems, in particular on the ecosystem services and assessment of environmental flows: While the knowledge about the economic contribution of water has been used extensively in the decision-making process, there is a critical gap in the eco-hydrological knowledge on surface water flows. There are extensive and diverse ecosystem services offered by the waters in the basin right from the upland watersheds till the delta and estuaries. Critical livelihoods are dependent on such services. On the other hand, the knowledge gap also exists in terms of the environmental flow requirements. Policy makers rarely took these into considerations in the initial phases of dam construction after the Indian independence. As the long-term environmental impact of altered flow regimes are expressing themselves, serious degradations of the downstream ecosystem services are becoming apparent. In the country of origin of large dams, the US, approach to large dams has now changed fundamentally based on optimization at the river basin level. However, the new concepts are not being easily internalized in the formal water governance in south Asia (Bandyopadhyay, 2007). On the other hand, the general perception of embankments as flood protection has further aggravated the scenario in various parts of the basin. There is a crucial knowledge gap in relation to the fluvial processes, and generally floods have been treated as villain of the piece without much understanding of the holistic eco-hydrological process with which they are associated.
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o Gaps in knowledge of flood management: The regular monsoon inundations are summarily seen as flood disasters with a relief-dominated approach to their management. In the water relations between Bangladesh and India, a holistic understanding of the monsoon flows and the ecosystem services they offer is lacking. Till now, the relief-dominated approach has not really resulted in any long-term solution to flood management, but has rather resulted in ad-hoc solutions that often exacerbate conflictual situations. The principle of IWRM that calls for floods and droughts to be treated as integral components of the larger ecohydrological cycle has not been recognized by the vision that has led to the fragmented approach of flood management in the basin. This, indeed, is a crucial concern of environmental security. o Gaps in knowledge of social dimensions of water systems use, local governance and water conflicts: While the social and cultural aspects of water use in the basin has traditionally been prominent and have moved in folklores, the documentation is not yet proper. Engineering interventions have rarely taken these aspects into account. Moreover, there is little recognition and documentation

o Gaps in eco-hydrological knowledge on groundwater systems and institutional mechanisms for its sustainable use and protection from pollution: The Indo-Gangetic basin is rich in groundwater, both static and dynamic. The other critical problem is groundwater pollution, and primarily those resulting from arsenic. Arsenic toxicity in groundwater has affected major parts of the basin, and is highly prominent in Bangladesh and southern West Bengal. The presence of arsenic in groundwater exceeding the permissible potable limit of 50 g/l was recorded in West Bengal in 1978, and initial cases of arsenic poisoning was diagnosed in 1983 (Chakraborti and Saha, 1987; Acharya and Shah, 2010). There has been quite a bit of research and documentation going on with respect to the various problems caused by arsenic pollution in the domains of human health, food security, and the social concerns (Das et al., 2008; Samanta et al., 2007; Pal et al., 2007; Acharya et al., 1999 and 2000). However, there is no such documentation of the effects of arsenic pollution on the ecosystem health, and its consequent impact on human livelihoods. This is an important knowledge gap. On the other hand, since the property rights status of groundwater is very different from that of surface water, conflicts over it are more localized. Therefore, the other potential policy research areas on groundwater include work on an ecologically informed property rights regime with an inter-disciplinary approach with policy, law and management of water systems. The related areas of research would be spread over engineering geology to soils sciences to sociology of local water institutions to environmental law (Bandyopadhyay, 2007).

While knowledge gaps that prevent resolution of problems in the GBM basin are many, they follow from a style of managing water that is similar across the basin. Thus, the first change must be in modes of water management that begin to look at human-ecosystem interfaces, at ecosystem-wellbeing linkages.
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 23

o Environmental security needs sound knowledge of the diverse demands and requirements of water, which is a critical knowledge gap in the region: In order to promote an integrated and ecosystemic approach to river basin management, there is a need for prioritization of water demands as well. This becomes even more pronounced when the national governments of the GBM basin are committed towards the fulfillment of the Millennium Development Goals. Sound knowledge of the diverse demands including that of the ecosystems is of utmost importance for more informed decision-making.

of the local governance issues in the policy documents. As Bandyopadhyay (2007) notes in the context of South Asian Rivers in general, For nearly a millennium, water in south Asia was managed by community-based organizations which were as diverse, as are the water endowments and physiographic characteristics of the specific areas. In the past few decades nongovernmental initiatives have established effective and revitalized institutional structures for such local water management. Various activities related to water are also divided between the two genders. Moench et al (1999) have presented a compendium of experiences on local level management from various parts of the region evidencing the effectiveness of the community-based organizations. On the other hand, construction of large dams and barrages has not been free from the social costs of rehabilitation and conflicts. Such social costs have often been ignored at the phase of project conception. The lack of knowledge about conducting integrated impact assessments of the large projects still presents itself as a major challenge for river basin management and environmental security in the context of not only the trans-boundary waters between India and Bangladesh, but for South Asia as a whole.

o Gaps in knowledge in emerging technological and practice-oriented options in water systems management: Newer technological options to provide water for drinking and sanitation are being thought of worldwide. Technological and practice-oriented innovations have also been taking place for promoting water-use-efficiency in irrigation. The core of the problem with the trans-boundary waters of India and Bangladesh is related to water for agriculture. It is also interesting to note that both these nations score very low in terms of water-use efficiency in irrigation, thereby resulting in some of the lowest crop productivities per unit of water in the world. On the drinking water front, the technology for desalination has presented itself as a very promising option that may bring about dramatic changes in the domestic water supply scenario all along the south Asian coasts. Uche et al (2006) have given a detailed account of the potential of the desalination technologies. The other area in which research needs to be focused is the re-use of water and innovation of related technologies. As a practice-oriented innovation, System of Rice Intensification (SRI) has been talked of as an intervention reducing water use for rice production. However, the efficacy of such innovations is yet to be inferred with conviction (Ghosh, 2008). This calls for more field level experiments. o Identification of the knowledge gaps on the Himalayan components: In detailed analyses of the ecological and political challenges associated with Himalayan waters, Gaur (1993), Bandyopadhyay and Gyawali (1994) and Bandyopadhyay (2002) have identified several knowledge gaps resulting in the problems in the traditional approach to developing the Himalayan rivers based on dams and embankments. These knowledge gaps in knowledge can be
24 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

o Gaps in knowledge in the relation between water and food security: The more interesting knowledge gap is the changing relation between water and food. Food security in a region has so far been thought of as a linear function of water availability. Recent literature, however, refutes such a relation (e.g. Frare, 2008; Molden, 2007; Ghosh and Bandyopadhyay, 2009a). While most of these experiments that have refuted the direct proportionality between water and food availability have emerged from the US and the EU, Ghosh and Bandyopadhyay (2009) have emphasized that there is a need for creating knowledge base on such a relation in South Asia. Whereas there has been a worldwide call for an ecosystemic approach to food security, there has not been any knowledge created in South Asia in this domain. o Lack of detailed hydrological data in public domain: Sensitive flow data have not been made available in the public domain by the national governments. Non-availability of data at public forum on trans-boundary hydrological flows, and some other associated important variables in the basin has totally restricted independent and non-partisan assessments of hydrological projects and livelihoods issues on the basin. It is important to have transparency in information dissemination among the various nations, with data being made available to the scientific community for independent scientific assessments. Such lack of data has created a void in knowledge on some of the important trans-boundary issues like floods, ecosystem services, as also for implications for conflictsall of which are crucial issues for environmental security. n

best summarized as follows: i) the mechanism of the generation and draining out of flood waters in the Himalayan foothills and floodplains; ii) the dynamics of the generation, transportation and deposition of sediments all along the course of the Himalayan rivers; iii) the nature of seismic risks associated with high dams in the Himalaya; iv) the impacts of structural interventions in the Himalayan rivers, like embankments; and v) the impact of the four points above on the economic feasibility of water development projects. Even the data gaps on the Himalayan components have been noted officially by the NCIWRDP (1999a, b). This has indeed led to a clear void in terms of objective and professional assessments of large projects, thereby casting uncertainty about their viability.

Way forward

The modes of water management followed in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna region as also the serious knowledge gaps as discussed earlier have led to situations that have aggravated the threats to environmental security in the context of trans-boundary water relations between India and Bangladesh. As it is, the state of conflict over water use exists at various levels in the basin, and has moved to the detriment of the hydro-political situation in the South Asian region as a whole. The most important remedy to address such knowledge gaps and eventually impact policy level thinking is to undertake research in some of the areas that are of utmost relevance in terms of affecting environmental security in the region, and disseminate the findings at relevant corners. Combining 3 perspectives The proposed research issues need to be addressed from three perspectives in a holistic and inclusive framework combining various disciplines, rather than in a reductionist framework of poverty and
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

25

water availability. These perspectives, entailing the following, have otherwise been suggested by Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh (2009).

o The ecological perspective: Ecosystem serviceLivelihood linkage: The river basin needs to be looked at as a collection of productive ecosystems that greatly affects livelihoods further downstream. The growing recognition of the importance of the ecosystems services has been highlighted in the report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). While upstream diversions help agriculture, there is a consequent decline in the downstream fishing economy all along the river as also enhanced salinity ingress affecting downstream economies, leading to partisan and suboptimal decisions. Based on recent research on the economic role of ecosystem services, the satisfaction of the needs of natural ecosystems has become a genuine contender for allocation of water in many countries (Aylward et al., 2005; Dyson et al., 2003).

o The Perspective of Economic Valuation: To complement the ecological perspective, a fundamental re-think has been going on with the internalization of important perspectives of ecological economics, which, more importantly entails identification of economic values with ecosystem processes (Ghosh and Bandyopadhyay, 2009b). Such valuation exercises are often conducted with offering a range of values (which, by themselves, are approximations). The important aspect of such valuation exercises is their usefulness in providing means to internalize factors that remained to be considered in the traditional assessment of river projects. Even theoretical papers, at times, become useful in providing a baseline for broader assessment at the local level (eg: Ghosh and Shylajan, 2005). Some interesting applications on extensions of the valuation frameworks for the understanding of the impacts and assessment of water projects, as also river systems have been conducted by Bouhia (2001) and Hitzhusen (2007). However, a very comprehensive process of valuation has evolved from the Water Allocation Systems (WAS) developed by a project at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on water management and conflict resolution in west Asia. One of the outcomes of this project is a volume by Fisher et al (2005). The volume not only incorporates social and private economic issues, but also environmental concerns. It is models like these that need to be developed for comprehensive evaluation at the river basin scale, in the context of GBM. For India, Desai (undated), Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh (2009) and Ghosh (2008) have suggested expansions of the valuation framework in the assessment of projects, though, in reality, little has been done to expand the framework.

o The Institutional Perspective: There has not been much work on the institutional aspects of water management at the basin scale over the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin barring those by Crow and Singh (2000). Crow and Singh (2000) have highlighted the need for extending bilateral exchange to multilateral exchange, and the second is expanding negotiations from conventional diplomacy to incorporate private economic actors. On the other hand, as already emphasized in this paper, there is a critical need for the policymakers to consider the term trans-boundary in the context of the renewed definition as presented by Beach et al (2000). This implies the consideration of intersectoral modes of water distribution, and considering the ecosystem as an important sector that plays an important role in human civilization. On the other hand, there needs to be a redefinition in the ways the property rights over water are being looked at. In western USA, property rights over water had been defined in terms of three doctrines: History, Harmon and Hobbes. While the doctrines of History
26 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

(right belongs to the one who has appropriated the resource first), and Harmon (right belongs to the one who has the water falling on his roof), were leading to conflicts, as different actors in the basin at various levels and sectors defined property rights as per their own convenience, it is therefore better to have peaceful modes of negotiations for defining property rights as defined by the Hobbesian doctrine (Richards and Singh, 2001). This might even lead to the development of water markets for defining property rights. The three perspectives, however, should not be treated as independent modes of looking at the challenges of environmental security in the context of the India-Bangladesh trans-boundary water relations. There is a need to combine the three in order to conduct research in a holistic framework. n

Research concerns

While some critical concerns at a broader scale have already been talked of, the other research problems over the trans-boundary water regime unfold themselves in the forms as discussed below.

o Ecosystem services and Human wellbeing in the delta regions of the Sundarban, a critical Socio-Ecological System: From an ecosystemic perspective, it is important to look at the GBM as an ecosystem production unit that interplays a critical role in the socio-economic existence of humans. In this process, one critical unit is the Sundarban. The Sundarban is the classic example of an endangered ecosystem that is highly populated and both fragile and economically valuable (Danda 2007). Some of the most celebrated components of the Sundarban biodiversity are the mangrove vegetation, periodic tidal flooding, and the unique wildlife of which the Royal Bengal Tiger has been prime subject for

o Status of the biodiversity and ecosystems services in trans-boundary waters: The yawning gap in knowledge exists in the context of the biodiversity and the ecosystems services over the trans-boundary waters. There is some research on the species diversity over the Ganga and the Brahmaputra (Sood et al., 2010; Payne et al., 2004; Biswas and Boruah, 2000; and Sinha et al., 2010). However, there is rarely much research on a temporal scale on the issues related to loss in species, and associated its diversity, due to the anthropogenic interventions in the hydrological flows. The other important aspect is the knowledge gap between biodiversity and the ecosystems services. This research needs to be taken up on an immediate basis in the basin region, as also at the basin scale.

There has not been much work on the institutional aspects of water management. There is a critical need for all policymakers to consider the term trans-boundary when it comes to the GBM system, for it will allow a consideration of the ecosystem as an important sector that plays an important role in human civilization
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 27

o Environmental Flows, Ecosystem Services of Floods and a Sediment Budget for the Basin: One of the least understood and least researched components of environmental security is the ecosystem services of floods that carry and deposit the sediments in the downstream plains to create some of the most fertile agricultural fields of the world. For that matter, there have not been much rigorous estimates of the environmental flows at the basin scale over the GBM, except a few attempts though at a sub-basin level (e.g. Smakhtin and Anputhas, 2006). One critical research gap is with the sediment budget in the basin, as also (from economists perspective) the agricultural and other economic contributions of such sediment deposits. Wasson (2003) uses Nd/ Sr tracer results to suggest that the High Himalaya is the main source of sediment, providing for the first time a focus for more detailed research on the role of land use and other factors in the generation of sediment. Hardly any significant publication has taken up this theme after this documentation by Wasson, thereby creating a huge void in the existing literature base. Understanding the sediment budget is important from the perspective of food production and other economic and ecosystem services, thereby having broader implications on environmental security in the basin.

tourist attraction. However, a more interesting aspect of Sundarban is the inherent deep-rooted entrenchment of human life with ecosystemic processes. Therefore, an immediate concern that arises is with understanding to what extent Sundarban ecosystem and its associated services have been affected due to upstream infrastructure development. One needs to look at the impacts on the mangroves, the subsequent impacts on the fishery production function, and eventually on livelihoods at meso and micro levels, through the mangrove-fishery linkages. This needs to be detected through an inclusive valuation framework that combines all the three perspectives. This inclusive valuation framework entails the valuation of not only the socio-ecological systems (SES) as defined by Ostrom (2005), but also a broader ecological system that is contingent upon the intricate dynamics of the SES (Bandyopadhyay and Ghosh, 2009). In the inclusive valuation framework, the scarcity values of ecosystem and its services are being accounted for and included in the national account statistics of the economy. Sundarban is one of the several such SES in the Ganga sub-basin where welfare change through changes in environmental inputs can be traced, and where externalities play an important role. As an example, the loss to fishermen due to reduced catch of fish and crustacean species in the lower Ganga can be a result of upstream diversion, pollution and eventual damage to the mangrove forests. Compensation to the fishermen for the loss of economic opportunity is not enough. The value of the ecological damage also needs to be taken into account. This is where the inclusive valuation framework moots on an integrated approach to include social values, economic contributions as well as ecosystem services provided by the hydrological cycle.

o Water Conflicts: From the viewpoint of water conflicts, it has often been hypothesized that water scarcity induces conflicts, acts as a social stressor, and poses a threat on environmental security. However, such contentions have been negated under the new emerging paradigm of IWRM. Nations in the Jordan basin, namely, Israel and Jordan, are water-scarce ones. According to the Falkenmark Water Barrier Scale (defined in terms of per capita availability), Israel transcended the water barrier in 1982 (Jobson, 1999), while Jordan did so in 1960 (Jobson, 1999). These two nations were engaged in water conflicts with each other. However, effective management of the available water resources,
28 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

One of the least understood or researched components of environmental security is the ecosystem services of floods that carry and deposit sediments in the downstream plains to create some of the most fertile agricultural fields of the world. A related problem is environmental flows have not been rigorously estimated.

o Scarcity Value of Water in an Inclusive Valuation Framework: In cue with the issue of water conflicts, Ghosh and Bandyopadhyay (2009) and Ghosh (2009) have argued that explanations to water conflicts need to be sought in the temporal coincidence of demand based on scarcity value, rather than in mere physical availability of water. While there have been few attempts to look at scarcity value of water in India and other parts of the world, the attempts on the Ganga basin is almost negligible except the one by Chowdhury (2005). At this stage, therefore there needs to be serious research on both sides that looks at scarcity values of water in the trans-boundary context, as has been done by Ghosh and Bandyopadhyay (2009) in the context of the Cauvery river in South India. An increasing scarcity value of water is indicative of an alarming condition for environmental security. Research therefore needs to suggest the demand management options to reduce the scarcity value of water. However, such a scarcity value cannot be confined to merely the economic service of water. But it should entail a broader framework that would encompass the various issues of ecology, economy, and society, thereby providing the policy makers with values for ecosystem services not only in the biological but also in the social and cultural domain of human existence. This is where one may delineate a broader framework for inclusive valuation. Even in the context of the SES of Sundarban, the scarcity value of water needs to be estimated in this redefined broad framework.

lately, has resulted in the two nations moving toward peaceful hydro-politics, despite problems in other political matters persisting in the region. These examples are some of the best in the world to reveal the validity of the modified relations between water availability and environmental security. Therefore, the hydro-political relations between India and Bangladesh need to be construed in terms of this changed relation between water, food security, economic development, thereby redefining the water-environmental security dynamics.

o Climate Change: As stated earlier, there is a knowledge gap in terms of the impacts of climate change on the GBM ecosystem. Here, one needs to keep in mind that the most crucial threat to environmental security in the ecosystem can be posed by climate change. This is because Ganga and Brahmaputra are essentially mountain rivers, and though largely snow-fed, the summer monsoons (June to September) provide a significant portion of the regions annual precipitation within a period of only four months. Any deviation of the seasonality of the monsoon can create severe problems of water availability in the region.
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 29

o Regional Water Markets: Richards and Singh (2001) have discussed the problems of developing regional water markets in the west Asia due to high transaction costs (which arise from information accession and high entry and exit barriers in the markets), and existence of wealth effects (e g, religious or other emotional sentiments attached to water can make the resource not amenable to a market framework transaction). While transaction costs are an integral part of markets, wealth effects never allow markets to develop. Such behaviour might also be rampant in the GBM basin. It is in such contexts that Crow and Singhs proposal of incorporating private economic actors in negotiations can be of help.
30 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

That climate change is a reality in South Asia has been accepted in the international literature (Mirza and Ahmad, 2005). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) third assessment report (IPCC-TAR) has also indicated the possibility of greater frequency and intensity of the extreme events related to water. The impact of global climate change on precipitation, stream flow and water availability have been major areas of global research in the past decade (see for example, Erda et al., 1996; Milli et al., 2005). The possibility of increasing intensity of such events has also been documented, and the additional impact of natures variability is expected in lower Ganga sub-basin comprising the Indian Sundarban Delta (Hazra, 2002). On the other hand, preliminary observations indicate that in addition to the reduction in the snow and ice cover in the Himalaya, water scarcity and extreme events in the region may be accentuated, thereby posing a threat on the environmental security further downstream in the context of the trans-boundary water relations between India and Bangladesh (Hosterman et al., 2009; Bandyopadhyay, 2007). Initial forecasts also suggest that changes in climate will further exacerbate the existing variability (Cruz et al., 2007). In the Ganga basin, climate change is expected to increase temperatures, resulting in the retreat of glaciers, increase variability in precipitation, resulting in increased magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods; and lead to sea-level rise (Hosterman et al., 2009). Gossain et al (2006) and Gossain and Rao (2004) have further indicated seasonal and frequent water stress over the Ganga. With this accepted premise of climate change in the GBM basin, the uncertainty still remains with the precision of various climate change predictions. On the other hand, there still remains a blurred idea of the possible impacts of climate change on food production and other ecosystem services. Critically, the most ignored area of research is the impact of climate change on delta regions of the basin, and more specifically the innumerable islands of Indian and Bangladeshi Sundarban. Hazra (2002) has been extremely categorical on the alarming level of sea level rise in the Indian Sundarban delta. Danda et al (2011) conceive of a vision of 2050 for the Indian Sundarban Delta, and talk of a process of phased relocation from climatically vulnerable zones. The document states that the process of relocation should also entail creation of adequate employment opportunities, training, counseling, and at the same time it should voluntarily be left to the population. However, no research so far has been able to draw up the critical impacts that climate change might have on the critical ecosystems-livelihood linkages. There is a chance that with the alterations in ecosystems services cause by changes in climate, livelihood processes might get negatively affected, and as a result newer modes of adaptation have to follow. On the other hand, the emerging thesis of climate change and environmental conflicts, as has been propounded by Homer-Dixon (1994), also needs to be reviewed. However, all these are parts of the research agenda and need to be taken up on a priority basis before taking up policy measures.

Environmental security concerns in the GBM basin are acute for many reasons. Possibly the most important reason hydro-diplomacy fails here is that it has never quite looked at the diverse demands made on water, ranging from the narrowly economic to the cultural-ecological.

In this context, researchers also need to think of whether a regional water futures exchange can be set up in the region, and to what extent such an exchange can help in mitigation of scarcity. The important research concerns here are: Can South Asian regional water derivatives market act as an institutional intervention bringing down the scarcity value of water, as suggested by Ghosh (2010)? Can trading in water index futures in such an exchange help in the process of conflict resolution? Ghosh (2010) has further suggested that the regional water futures exchange can also be a mode of thinking to combat the variability of water availability that will accentuate under climate change. However, all such preliminary thoughts need to be studied in further details combining the perspectives of institutions and inclusive valuation. n

Conclusion

The above discussion presents the agenda for research in relation to environmental security in the region. The list, of course, is far from exhaustive. Yet, these issues are to be prioritized in the research agenda. The central issue of this note is that the concerns of environmental security in the context of trans-boundary water relations between India and Bangladesh should be viewed through the lens of the ecosystems services and livelihoods linkages, rather than from the perspective of traditional engineering paradigm followed for myopic national interests. Such perspectives and interests have so far led to conflicts at international, national and sectoral levels between stakeholders, and have posed threats to environmental security. To ensure environmental security in terms of the trans-boundary water relations between the two nations, there needs to be a movement from a state of distrust and suspicion to a state of cooperation. However, such regional cooperation needs to take off at the scale of the GBM river basin, rather than being confined to bilateral negotiations between the two nations. This implies that on the one hand, all the stakeholder nations in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin have to be involved in a dialogue. On the other hand, since the environmental security concerns boil down to the most micro-level stratum of the society, there is a need to involve the sub-national actors in the deliberation processes, as also involve them in the decision-making and policy-making. This can lead to an inclusive developmental framework, as also providing leeway away from the conflictual situation prevailing in the basin at various scales and at various levels. However, research and knowledge creation has to precede policy dialogue to bridge some critical knowledge gaps. While on the one hand, the worldwide paradigm shift in river basin management has not affected policymakers in South Asia, on the other hand, there is clearly a dearth of research on the critical issues of environmental security in the GBM basin. Therefore, hydro-diplomacy in the GBM basin is still based on reductionist engineering, and looks at marginal
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 31

economic benefits, without showing any concern for the long-run implications for livelihoods and ecosystem. The governments in the river basin are already facing the challenge of extreme poverty, despite the countries experiencing high levels of precipitation. This paper has already highlighted the limitations of the reductionist engineering paradigm in combating the newer and newer challenges that are being posed on environmental security in the basin. In the process, a holistic framework for ecological engineering and water management has been proposed in the basin. While this paper has talked of inclusiveness of diverse stakeholders, it further stresses inclusiveness of diverse disciplines for conducting research. The new research framework needs to be based on a new trans-disciplinary knowledge base created by the emerging science of eco-hydrology, economics, and new institutional theories. There is a need to specially consider the important developmental issues of the delta region that is allegedly dying. The Indian Sundarban delta specifically presents a critical challenge of vulnerability of nature, species and human life in the wake of the concerns of climate change. On the other hand, there is a need to reconsider the ways floods are being looked at further upstream, and consider their ecosystem functions and services. On the whole, there needs to be an economic assessment of the demand for water based on scarcity value framework on an immediate basis, with the results being disseminated at a broader policy scale, with clear recognitions of the ecosystemic delineations of concerns of development, food security, poverty, and hydropolitics. This is because, never before has the challenge of MDGs depended on the science of a better informed ecological engineering as it does in the GBM basin today; and never before, has the role of a trans-disciplinary framework combining economics with other disciplines of social sciences and engineering, in providing a comprehensive evaluation framework needed a reemphasis, as it is needed in the GBM basin today.

Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh, Chief Economist and Head, Research and Strategy, MCX(I) Limited, Mumbai (Previously with Takshashila Academia of Economic Research Limited TAER) Professor Jayanta Bandhopadhya, Professor and Head, Centre for Development and Environment Policy, Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta

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Endnotes
1 2 http://wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1413&fuseaction=topics.categoryview&categoryid=A82CCAEE-5BF-E7DC46B3B37D0A3A575F Construction of large structures like dams and barrages to harness water was thought of as the means to promote regional development. Such engineering interventions over the hydrological flows have been delineated here as structuralist interventions.

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CNRS.DHAKA

environmental security | bangladesh

A GBM ecosystem perspective


Shahab Enam Khan

t the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, security was defined in the context of the nation state and emphasized securing borders from relatively easily identifiable, external military threats.1 By the early 1980s, attention re-focused on the non-military aspects of security and the concept began to be broadened to encompass the environmental aspects of security, including quality of life, within a State.2 The mid-1990s saw a shift in the debate over the links between environment and security, from a nation state-centric notion predicated on interstate conflict to a society-centred focus on human insecurity as a trigger for civil strife.3 A States borders may be secure, but its citizens are not necessarily protected from the impacts of environmental degradation; the resulting human insecurity can lead to instability at the state level.4 A study on conflict suggests that environmental degradation triggers conflict if social fault lines can be manipulated in the struggle for power, and that violence often results from the combination of a weak state, environmental discrimination and a pre-existing history of conflict.5 Therefore, the relationship between environment and security has become ever more compelling in this millennium. A comprehensive overview of the environmental security field shows: The environment is the most transnational of transnational issues, and its security is an important dimension of peace, national security, and human rights that is just now being understood; Over the next 100 years, one third of current global land cover will be transformed, with the world facing increasingly hard choices among consumption, ecosystem services, restoration, and conservation and management; Environmental security is central to national security, comprising the dynamics and interconnections among the natural resource base, the social fabric of the state, and the economic engine for local and regional stability; and While the precise roles of the environment in peace, conflict, destabilization and human insecurity may differ from situation to situation and as such are still being debated in relation to other security and conflict variables, there are growing indications that it is increasingly an underlying cause of instability, conflict and unrest.6
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 39

It has become factually evident that there is a direct correlation between environmental degradation, on the one hand, and social disruption and conflict on the other. Today there is a growing need to better understand the human sources of environmental change and the ways in which environmental factors combine with economic, social and political forces to trigger, amplify or cause violence and insecurity.7 For the purpose of this study environmental security could be understood as a state of a symbiotic relation between the changing natural environment and security of human societies. Whenever the concept of environmental security is discussed it includes human security as well.8 Environmental security, thus, depends on the dynamics in the natural environment, population change, degree of access to the environmental resources and so forth. Interaction between and among the determinants of environmental security sets the stage to address and discuss the environmental security challenges in this paper. Environmental security can also be defined as: a means of achieving long-term social, economic and ethical security through: i) the sustainable utilisation of renewable resources and ecosystem functions; ii) protection from natural hazards; and iii) conservation of other species.9 The definition acknowledges the fundamental linkages between environmental security and management, economic development and the social well-being of people. In line with the definition, one would see that Bangladesh has become threatened by the question of environmental security due to the impact of climate change. Bangladeshs unique geographic location, dominance of floodplains and low elevation from the sea, high population density, high level of poverty, pollution and overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services, has made the GBM ecosystems fragile. The country has a history of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past development gains. Variability in rainfall pattern, combined with increased snow melt from the Himalaya and greater temperature extremes, are resulting in crop damage and failure, preventing farmers and those dependent on natures services for meaningful earning opportunities. In a changing climate the pattern of impacts include loss of assets, lack of investment for economic development and migration. Climate change threatens settlements and the number of people displaced from their land due to permanent inundation and sea level rise are increasing rapidly. Resources and efforts of government and people are quickly drained in addressing the impacts of natural hazards and climatic changes. Impacts of climate change have the potential to challenge our development efforts, human security and the future. How climate change impacts security Many of the impacts of future climate change will reinforce the environmental, socio-economic and demographic stresses already faced by Bangladesh. Climate change is likely to result in:10

Today there is a growing need to better understand the human sources of environmental changes and the ways in which environmental factors combine with economic, social and political factors to trigger, amplify or cause environmental insecurity or violence
40 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Agriculture and fisheries The economy of Bangladesh is based on agriculture, with two thirds of the population engaged in or indirectly relying on agricultural activities. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change,11 particularly changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and increased likelihood of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Although an increase in CO2 levels could moderately increase temperature which may result in an increase in cropping yields, through carbon fertilisation, modelling studies suggest that increasing frequency of crop loss due to extreme events, such as droughts and heavy precipitation, may overcome any benefits of moderate temperature increase.12 Inundation has also emerged as an important factor. While inundation to a lesser degree has had a positive impact on production, with perennial floods bringing silt and nutrients, increasing the fertility of the soils, prolonged floods usually have a detrimental impact on crop yields. For example in two severe floods in 1974 and 1987, the shortfalls in production were about 0.8 and 1.0 Mt respectively.13 On average, during 1962-1988, Bangladesh lost about 0.5 million tons of rice annually as a result of floods, which accounts for nearly 30% of the countrys average annual foodgrain imports.14 Other impacts of climate change such as temperature rise, drought, and salinity intrusion are also causing declining crop yields in Bangladesh. Several studies have been conducted in Bangladesh to assess the vulnerability of foodgrain production to various climate scenarios. One such study15 noted that a 4C increase in temperature will have a severe impact on food production in Bangladesh, resulting in a 28% reduction in rice production and a 68% reduction in wheat production.16 Temperature and rainfall changes have already harshly affected crop production in many parts of Bangladesh, and the area of arable land has already decreased. The shortening of the winter season is resulting in a decline in production of winter crops, particularly potatoes. This has significantly changed the patterns in food production and access to food is becoming expensive compared to average income of the people. The salinity intrusion experienced by the coastal area of Bangladesh is having serious implications for the quality of the soil in traditional rice-growing areas. Increase in water stress has also affected the production of major crops, again particularly rice, which needs significant amounts of water. The fisheries sector may also be adversely affected. The fisheries sector contributes about 3.5% of the GDP in Bangladesh, and people rely on fish products to make up the majority of daily protein dietary requirements. There are 260 species of fish in Bangladesh, all of which are sensitive to particular salt and freshwater conditions.17 The changes in tidal patterns, as well as increasing saline intrusion into the freshwater rivers, associated with climate change, will impact fish population, although the extent to which this occurs is still unknown. These changes have significant implications on both the agriculture and the fisheries in Bangladesh, not only because of its effects on the livelihoods and income, but also
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 41

Increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency, associated with sea level rise, greater monsoon precipitation and increased glacial melt; Increased vulnerability to cyclone and storm surges; Increased moisture stress during dry periods, leading to increased drought; Increased salinity intrusion; and Greater temperature extremes. These impacts have significant security implications for Bangladeshs economic development, social welfare and culture. However, in order to provide broader emphasis on environmental security, impacts of climate change on the following major sectors could be discussed.

Water resources and hydrology In Bangladesh, the effects of climate change on surface water and groundwater resources will be entirely negative.20 The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) highlights water related impacts of climate change to be amongst the most critical for Bangladesh, particularly in relation to riverine and coastal flooding, and also in relation to increased winter droughts in some areas21. In terms of flooding, a report by the OECD states that future changes in precipitation in Bangladesh may have four distinct implications:22 The timing of occurrence of floods may change, with implications for the seasonality of the hydrological cycle; Increase precipitation in the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins may increase the magnitude, depth and spatial extent of floods; The timing of peaking in the major rivers may also change, which may in turn change the likelihood of synchronization of flood peaks of major rivers; and Increased magnitude, depth, extent and duration of floods will bring a dramatic change in land use patterns in Bangladesh. Other changes associated with climate change include increases in evaporation rates, reduction in dry season trans-boundary flows resulting in an increase in irrigation water requirements, sea level rise that will exacerbate drainage congestion, and other potential impacts such as more frequent flash floods, higher frequency of tropical cyclones, rise in storm surge depths, and slower accretion of coastal lands. Changes in water resources and hydrology will have a major impact on Bangladesh as people heavily depend on the surface water for fish cultivation, navigation, industrial and other uses, and the groundwater is used for domestic purposes and irrigation (see Table 1). The impacts on agriculture have already been noted. It should also be noted that these problems will be further exacerbated by poor water management, both nationally and trans-boundary. For example, the effect of upstream water diversion on dry season increases salinity levels on coastal mangroves in Bangladesh.23 This highlights the interaction between climate change and the existing stresses already experienced by Bangladesh with regards to water management. Table 1: Seasonal fluctuation in surface water availability and overall demand
Average water availability Demand Critical dry period (February April) 60 million m3 90 million m3

because of the threat to Bangladeshs food security. To become self sufficient in foodgrain production by 2030, an additional 14.64 million tons will be required.18 Further, about 80% of animal protein intake in Bangladeshi daily diets comes from fish. The population of Bangladesh almost doubled in less than thirty years from 1971, and now stands at over 143 million. According to the government of Bangladesh, the requirement of foodgrain in the country will be 42.8 Mt by 2030.19 Increased vulnerability to crop production makes this near impossible. Besides, as fisheries are also vulnerable to climate change, food security in Bangladesh is unlikely to be achieved.

1,030 million m3 142 million m3

Wet season (June-October)

Source: Bangladesh Case Study Report, Institute of Water Modeling and DHI, 2008 42 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Coastal areas Coastal areas in Bangladesh are on the front line of climate change, directly affected by storm surges, drainage congestion and sea level rise. Most of Bangladesh is less than ten metres above mean sea level, with almost 10% of the country below 1 metre, making it extremely vulnerable to increasing high tides.24 With sea levels expected to rise by an average of two to three mm per year during the first part of this century, the effects on the coastal areas will be severe, and would include erosion, coastal land subsistence, siltation of river estuaries, reduced sedimentation, waterlogging and saltwater intrusion.25 The coastal area of Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal are located at the tip of the northern Indian Ocean, which is frequently hit by severe cyclonic storms, generating long tidal waves that get aggravated by the shallow bay. Although Bangladesh now has good early warning systems and cyclone shelters have been constructed along much of the coast, infrastructure and livelihoods are still threatened and severely affected, hampering further development of the coastal areas. 30 districts were damaged by cyclone Sidr for example, with 11 districts closest to the coast damaged most severely. Coastal areas are also affected by salinity intrusion. Salt water from the Bay of Bengal already penetrates 100 km inland during the dry season, and climate change is likely to exacerbate this.26 Pressure from an increasing population and rising demand for groundwater further reduces the availability of freshwater supplies for domestic and industrial purposes. A quarter of the population lives in the coastal areas, with the majority reliant on or affected by coastal activities. If sea levels rises up to one metre this century, Bangladesh could lose up to 15% of its landmass and up to 30 million Bangladeshis could become climate refugees.27 In these areas agriculture, industry, infrastructure, livelihoods, marine resources, forestry and biodiversity, human health and utility services will all suffer. Such a scenario could lead to a decline in GDP between 27% and 57%.28 Forestry/biodiversity Bangladesh has a diverse range of forest ecosystems, including savannah, bamboo, freshwater swamp forests and mangroves. The Sundarban of Bangladesh, a world heritage site, is the single largest mangrove area in the world, comprising an area covering 595,500 ha.29 and hosts one of the richest natural gene pools. A total of 425 species have been identified in the Sundarban, the most notable of which is the Bengal tiger, endemic to the area. Climate change will have a detrimental impact on all of the forest ecosystems in Bangladesh, and the Sundarban are likely to be the worst affected.30 The changes in temperature and water resources by climate change will result in direct pressure on many climate-sensitive species, and cause increased erosion and deterioration of soil quality in upland forested areas. Increased rainfall intensity will cause enhanced erosion in upstream and cause sedimentation. Saline intrusion is already a major problem in the Sundarban. However, it should be noted that climate change will also cause an increase in freshwater flows from the major distributaries with increased precipitation, and the extent to which this may offset salinity intrusion is uncertain. The Sundarban also offer subsistence to around 3.5 million inhabitants that live within and around the forest boundary.31 The inundation and intruding salinity is already interrupting traditional practices in the Sundarban. Despite the fact that the non-agricultural sector accounts for 74% of total economic loss due to flood, Bangladesh lacks data for urban flood loss assessment.32 Thus there is a need to look more seriously at climate impacts on urban flooding. There is also a need to understand the role of eco-systems in managing disasters. A recent study shows, among other things, that the presence of mangroves reduced human deaths by over 50%, and that no deaths would have occurred if the mangrove cover was at the 1950s level.33 Overall, the cost-benefit analysis of human casualties,
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 43

Urban areas Low-lying coastal cities are directly vulnerable to the risks of sea level rise and storms.39 In Bangladesh, the most vulnerable cities include Dhaka and Khulna, both of which have witnessed extreme environmental stresses in recent years. Cyclone Sidr affected the infrastructure of more than half a million homes, with nearly one million all or particularly destroyed, and more than 10,000 schools all or partially destroyed. Direct impacts will occur through the increased floods, drainage congestion and water logging, as well as further infrastructure damage during extreme events. Severe flooding has already impeded the development of Dhaka significantly, but of the eight major floods that have occurred in the last 50 years, the three most recent (1988, 1998 and 2004) have been the most damaging.40 The key sectors affected by floods in Bangladeshs cities include infrastructure, industry, trade, commerce and utility services, all of which reduce in productivity during and after major flooding, increasing the vulnerability of the urban poor. Further, as the adverse impacts of climate change on rural areas will cause increased migration to urban areas, there will be greater pressure on scarce housing, water, sanitation, and energy services. All of this will increase the number of vulnerable urban poor who are particularly at risk from climate related disasters.41 Already, around 40% of the population in Bangladesh live in slums and squatter settlements in the cities, which are most at risk from damage during flooding.42 A survey conducted during the 1998 flood found that at least one in thirteen people had been forced to change their occupation, while the floods left 27.4% of people unemployed.43
44 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Human health Climate change affects health directly and indirectly. The most direct impacts of climate change on human health occur through extreme events, for example the floods in Bangladesh in 2004 that caused 800 deaths, while the recent cyclone affected more than 8.5 million people, causing more than 3,500 deaths.35 Climate change will also affect the distribution of climate sensitive diseases. Malaria is a frequently cited example, because its prevalence increases in line with the warmer, wetter climates anticipated with climate change. Incidences of malaria have increased dramatically in Bangladesh over the last 30 years, and it is now a major public health problem, with 14.7 million people in Bangladesh classified as being high-risk.36 Other diseases such as dysentery, diarrhoea, dengue, typhoid, hypertension associated with heat stress, asthma and skin diseases are also increasing in Bangladesh, particularly during the summer months.37 While a causative connection between climate change and these diseases is difficult to verify, the conditions associated with climate change (in terms of temperature, rainfall, and salinity) and the impacts on water supply, sanitation and food production generate a favourable environment for the incidence and spread of such diseases. For example, increased flooding as well as drought is resulting in a decline in the availability of clean water in Bangladesh where water-borne diseases are already responsible for 24% of all deaths.38

damages to houses and livestock losses shows that there is an economic case for preservation of mangroves, at least in reducing the cost of dealing with cyclones. It is possible to cultivate mangroves in Bangladesh and large-scale mangrove plantations are currently being developed. The opportunities for shrimp farming have accompanied increasing salinisation. Shrimp farmers are encouraged to inundate their land with brackish water during times of low salinity, exacerbating damage to the forest cover. Depleting forests in waterlogged and salinated areas are putting further pressure on forest resources such as fuelwood and timber, enhancing the rate of forest depletion.34

Ecosystems that Bangladeshi people depend on are far removed from natural systems in terms of function, composition and structure. The case is more or less similar in Bangladeshs neighbouring countries. Yet, 70% of Bangladeshs population remains directly dependent on ecosystems

Vulnerable groups The urban poor are, therefore, especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, due to the fragility of slums and squatter settlements and the lack of employment security. In the rural areas, those with insecure land tenure, particularly the marginalized indigenous communities, and women, are also particularly vulnerable. In Bangladesh, women are more vulnerable to chronic poverty in general due to gender inequalities in various social, economic and political institutions. Land access is particularly problematic. Land is often obtained by women on a limited usufruct basis through marriage, which can leave them landless on divorce and denies them collateral.44 As the availability of fertile land declines under climate change, women will lose access first. In addition, women are the main users and carriers of water. As the availability and quality of water declines and resources become scarcer, women will suffer increasing workload to collect unsalinated water to sustain their families. When a cyclone and flood hit Bangladesh in 1991, the death rate for women was almost five times higher than for men. This was because men were able to communicate with each other when they met in public spaces, but information often did not reach the household, and because many women were not allowed to leave their homes in the absence of a male relative, many waited for their male relatives to return. Further, the majority of women in Bangladesh have never learnt to swim.45 n

Environmental security-ecosystem linkages

As we have seen earlier, the pattern of climate change in Bangladesh indicates that the ecosystems that Bangladeshi people most depend on are far removed from natural systems in terms of function, composition and structure. The case is more or less similar in Bangladeshs neighboring countries such as India. 70% of the total population of Bangladesh remains directly dependent on ecosystems.46 In recent years concern about the modification of natural systems has been expressed for three reasons. First, it is not known if heavily modified systems are sustainable in the long-term. Second, the realization that natural (i.e. less modified) ecosystems provide both economic and social benefits to society and that these benefits may be lost if an ecosystem is changed has gained prominence. Third, it is felt by many that it is an ethical duty to protect nature from the impact of human activities. To determine the linkages between environmental security and the ecosystems, it is required to identify the drivers that make changes in the ecosystems in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is classified into four physiographic regions: the eastern and northern frontier hilly regions; the great table land; the flood plains of the GBM system; and the delta.47 These are
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 45

Map 1: Bio-Ecological zones of Bangladesh

India
4b 2

4a 2 2 4a 2

4a 2 4a

4a

1 3 4c 3

India

5b

5a 9b

4d

5a 9b 9b

9b 9b

9b

4b

India

6 10

6 6

11 6 4b 10 12

8d

4e 8d 8b

9c 9c

India

9c

7a

8b

8b

8b 12

5c 8a 8b 8b 7b 8b 8e 8c 9a

Bay of Bengal
1. Himalyan Piedmont Plain 2. Barind Tract 3. Madhupur Sal Tract 4a. Teesta Floodplain 4b. Ganges Floodplain 4c. Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain 4d. Surma-Kushiyara Floodplain 4e. Meghna Floodplain 5a. Haor Basin 5b. Chalan Beel 5c. Kaptai Lake 6. Gopalganj/Khulna Peat Lands 7a. Sundarbans 7b. Chakaria Sundarban 8a. Coastal Plains 8b. Offshore Islands 12. Coastal and Marine Waters

Myanmar

8c. Narikel Jinjira Coral Island 8d. Meghna Estuarine Floodplain 8e. Sandy Beach/Dand Dunes 9a. Chittagong Hills and the CHTs 9b. Sylhet Hills 9c. Lalmai-Tipperah Hills 10. Saline Tidal Floodplain 11. Major Rivers

46

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Mangrove swamps The coastal areas of Bangladesh are one of the most populated areas. In 2001, it was reported that 35.1 million people live in coastal areas.48 The extent of poverty in coastal areas is relatively high compared to the rest of Bangladesh. An estimated 25% are poor and 24% are extremely poor.49 Most people are agricultural labourers, small farmers, fishermen and urban poor. A type of ecosystem in the coastal areas is the mangrove swamp. Sundarban and Chakaria Sundarban are the largest mangrove swamps in Bangladesh that cover 4% of forest areas in the country, offering various provisioning ecosystem services.50 These include wood, honey, bamboo, cane, herbs, and ornament plants. They also play a crucial role in maintaining the life cycle of economically important fish, shrimp, and crab species. They provide several regulating ecosystem services such as nutrient production, water purification, sediment trap, and shore stabilizer. One estimate states one-third of the country is dependent on the Sundarban and 3.5 million people surrounding the area are directly or indirectly dependent on this ecosystem.51 Another study shows that 18% of Sundarban households depend on such resources.52 The extent to which the ecosystem services the Sundarban provide is, however, under threat. The Sundarban have been described to be in an irreversible condition or sick primarily due to over-extraction of resources.53 Demographic change has been a significant driver where overharvesting beyond sustainable levels has occurred due to population pressure and the demand for resources. External inputs, such as development projects, have also been a significant driver coupled with poor resource management. External factors in the form of infrastructure development have had a significant effect on regulating services the Sundarban offers. Building of the Farakka Barrage has decreased the level of freshwater that reaches the Sundarban from India and increased salinity in the coastal areas.54 Additionally, salinity is a result of illicit felling of trees and systematic overexploitation of resources.55 Increased salinity can alter regulating services. This was especially evident in the Chakaria Sundarban in the Coxs Bazaar District, in the southeast of the country, where trees have disappeared due to high levels of salinity. Attempts were made to recreate and/or restore the forest area through afforestation. However, this was not completely successful because people were more interested in shrimp farming. Changes in the patterns of land usage have made people in these areas even more vulnerable to cyclones, since coastal mangroves provided protection against storms. The ecosystem services provided by the coastal mangroves swamps have been lost due to salinity. Local people exploited such change in the ecosystem and started to intensively farm shrimp in Chakaria Sundarban. The Chakaria Sundarban is an area of 18,500 ha and was declared a reserve forest in 1903.56 Despite being declared as reserved forests, shrimp farming as an economic activity in both Sundarban has increased significantly. Between 1984 and 1985, the area under shrimp farming was 64,246 ha. It rose to 203,071 ha between 2003 and 2004.57 Shrimp export revenue has grown from US$ 4 million to US$ 360 million, making it 12 times more profitable than high yielding varieties of rice.58 Shrimp farming contributes 8-10 % of total export earning.59
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 47

further divided into various bio-ecological zones (see Map 1, p 46). In this situation analysis, to identify the eco-systems-environmental security linkages, several agro-ecological zones have been studied, such as Madhupur Sal Tract; Ganga-Brahmaputra-Jamuna floodplains, Haor Basin, Chalan Beel, Kaptai Lake, Sundarban, Charkaria Sundabans and the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Each of these zones presents unique cases of linkages between environmental security concerns and climate changes. The Following are the major zones that need to be taken into cognizance to understand the linkages between environmental security and ecosystems in the context of Bangladesh.

Changes in ecosystems greatly affect womens well-being through its impacts on their health, nutrition, workload and livelihood strategies. In Bangladesh, women are more vulnerable to chronic poverty due to inequalities in social, economic and political institutions. Ecological degradation worsens their situation
Among those involved in aquaculture in mangrove swamps are women. 30% of women in coastal areas are directly or indirectly involved in small-scale fisheries, which include shrimp farms.60 Women also make up 50% of workers in shrimp processing centres.61 Among women, it is the poor who are primarily involved in shrimp fry collection. In addition to being a source of income, shrimp farming contributes to their food security and offers inexpensive source of protein required to maintain good health. Shrimp farming has positive and negative impacts on coastal mangrove swamps ecosystems. In some cases, shrimp farming has improved ecosystem services. For instance, shrimp farming can reduce insect attacks in the adjacent rice fields, and fish faeces can contribute to organic matter that improves soil quality, which leads to increased rice production.62 In other cases, shrimp farming has detrimental effects. Mass shrimp collection is a threat to the coastal ecosystem, causing damage to the nursery grounds of many species, newly planted mangroves and reserve forests. Additionally, introduction of new species has also been detrimental to the mangrove forest ecosystem. For instance, many white fish are lost when collecting shrimp fry. Agro-ecosystems are affected where coastal shrimp farming takes place in the same field/pond near a river where rice is also cultivated. Moreover, in some cases, influential shrimp entrepreuners have forcibly rented land from small and marginal landowners to make fish ponds to cultivate shrimp. This has gradually led to salinization of land and disappearance of (social) forests, and depletion of livestock due to disappearance of grazing land and scarcity of fodder such as rice straws. This has led to the fall in productivity of aman rice, for instance. Not only has productivity of this rice decreased between 1987 and 2000, but also total nation-wide unemployment in agriculture has increased from 0% to 19% among males and from 46% to 55% among females in agriculture because of salinity caused by shrimp farming between 1975 and 1999.63 Therefore, changes in mangrove forest ecosystems can make aman rice farmers vulnerable and threaten their income activities. Changes in the ecosystem, such as increased salinity, especially affect poor women. Some poorer women cannot afford deep tube wells and have to travel up to 5km to collect drinking water since surface and groundwater become polluted due to salinity as a result of shrimp farming. They may also have to provide free labor in return for access to closer water sources.64 Such conditions affect their livelihoods because they are unable to find clean water for their homestead gardens and livestock.65 Nutritional diversity also declines because saline water is unable to support vegetables and livestock for consumption. They are also unable to gather livelihood resources from coastal forests as shrimp farms are expanding. Therefore, changes in ecosystems greatly affect womens wellbeing through its impacts on their health, nutrition, workload, and livelihood strategies. Although formal and informal management mechanisms exist to sustain aquaculture in mangrove forests and minimize negative impacts, they have either been ignored or have collapsed over time.66
48 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Inland waters and floodplains Inland waterbodies, such as rivers, are a source of freshwater upon which people and other biodiversity depend. Freshwater is essential for the functioning of many provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. Rivers provide water for production (irrigation, energy, fish) and domestic use (drinking and sanitation). Freshwater is essential for human well-being. Bangladesh has 230 rivers, of which 57 are international, Bangladesh in most cases being the lower riparian country. Of the three large trans-boundary river systems (Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna), only 7% of their huge catchment areas lies in Bangladesh. The major rivers have a length of 500-2,500 km and width range from 1-20 km, with very flat slopes.67 Surface level freshwater is ample in Bangladesh as the confluence of the Jamuna (Brahmaputra), Ganga and Meghna rivers occurs within the country. There are, however, several drivers of change such as poor quality of water, floods, river erosion, and waterlogging which negatively impact agricultural production, create disinvestment in land, loss of human settlement, lack of safe drinking water and outbreak of water-borne diseases.68 The quality of water in various parts of Bangladesh is degrading, which affects human wellbeing. Buriganga, Sitalakhya and Narayanganj are the worst affected rivers of Bangladesh. Inland freshwater ecosystems are changing due to external inputs that include development activities, such as industrial production.69 There are 6,000 large and medium industries and 24,000 small industries within various sectors such as chemicals, tanneries, paper and pulp mills, petrochemical and fertilizer complexes, and rubber factories in Bangladesh.70 Run-offs from these industries, especially due to the lack of clean technologies, contaminate inland water sources where around 85 % of wastes are directed into canals and rivers.71 For instance, in July 2007, Dhaka city produced 1.3 million cubic meters wastes per day but only disposed 0.12 m cum waste per day through Pagla, the waste treatment plant. Most waste is pumped and thrown into the canals and drains towards rivers through open and covered drains. More than 85% of the waste, produced by the industries in Dhaka, is thrown directly into rivers.72 Additionally, the lack of sanitation is also a driver of change, as it degrades water quality and changes ecosystem services when excessive human and animal waste enters rivers and lakes. Not only does this affect the two million tons of fish caught from rivers of Bangladesh per year, it also affects sources of income based on water resources, such as agriculture and fisheries and the quality of health.73 Because the poor have limited access to health care services, their ability to recover from water borne diseases due to poor water quality is low. Poor health in turn worsens economic poverty since the number of days one is able to work is reduced.74 This also leads the poor to purchase water, which sometimes costs more than in some developed countries. Since many cannot afford the high cost of water, they are forced to drink contaminated water.75 Therefore, the lack of appropriate technologies to minimize industrial run off and treat waste lowers both health and economic well-being. In addition to the indirect drivers mentioned above, there are several direct and natural drivers that change ecosystem services, creating a negative impact on the poor. Studies have shown that, especially in Bangladesh, alteration in waterbodies and floodplains are taking place due to increase in rainfall during the monsoon. Moreover, sedimentation then limits the ability of inland waterbodies to absorb excess water. Furthermore, flood occurs due to various drivers including include La Nina phenomenon, intense rainfall in Bangladesh, and backwater effects in the Bay of Bengal.76 Therefore, the drivers of change that affects inland water and floodplain ecosystems are complex, debatable and would require collective action involving the neighboring countries.77 Although debates on the significance of the drivers of changes exist, nevertheless the impacts of the drivers are catastrophic. As a flood-prone country, approximately 34% of land in Bangladesh
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 49

stays submerged under water for 5-7 months of the year and affects approximately 60% of its households,78 Although a flood is an environmental issue that approximately 60 % of households in Bangladesh encounter,79 it also provides regulating ecosystem services such as fertilization of fields, flushing out of salts and toxins from soils and watercourses and recharging of reservoirs.80 On the other hand, flood as natural occurrence alters the ecosystem provisions, such as land availability and composition, tends to exacerbate poverty and creates land/homelessness through displacement, for it destroys natural resources the poor directly depend upon. The 1998 flood in Bangladesh, for example, is considered to be one of the worst in the 20th century in terms of extent and duration. Approximately 50% of the country was submerged for 67 days due to flooding of Jamuna and Ganga rivers81]. It had not only damaged 60 % of the land and affected 30 million people, but also caused a loss of 2.04 million metric tons of rice crop.82 Even though the 1998 flood was devastating, markets were stable due to private sector imports of rice and wheat, as well as government supply. Nevertheless many poor people were unable to access food due to the loss of assets and income earning opportunities. An estimated 55% of households lost assets worth Tk 6,936 (US$ 84.6) on average, equivalent to 16% of pre-flood total value of assets.83 Furthermore, day labourers were severely affected since their employment fell sharply from 19 days per month in 1997 to only 11 days per month from July to October 1998. This has also greatly affected human well-being in terms of increasing food insecurity. The study also indicated that 15.6% of flood-exposed households became insecure in terms of food and health.84 Currently, many of the poor also do not have access to safety nets and resources to cope with natural calamities, which further leave them vulnerable after rivers flood.85 Therefore floods, which are direct drivers of ecosystem change, greatly challenge the poor, affecting health and well-being. The flood in 1998 had a significant toll on human health as access to safe water was reduced, and toilet facilities were destroyed or damaged. In the 1998 flood, there were up to 400,000 cases of diarrhea of which 500 ended in death.86 Women and children were particularly affected. It has been estimated that 55% of children were stunted and 24% were wasted due to reduced access to food, increased difficulties of providing proper care for children that came with disruptions in home life and the greater exposure of children to contaminants.87 Women were also found to be energy deficient.88 Most people whose health were affected by this epidemic were either poor or very poor with low levels of education. Thus, floods as natural drivers of change can greatly affect the poor because of their lack of assets.89 Furthermore, river bank erosion is a serious issue of concern. Many rural people consider riverbank erosion a greater problem than floods, with high repercussion on well-being. Although floods may temporarily cause severe damages as discussed above, people are able to still use the land in flood plains after floods have receded. However, lateral riverbank erosion is a more constant threat to well-being because they erode living spaces and the existence base of entire families.90 The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) estimates that flooding in 2007 eroded 140 km of river bank fully and another 1,345 km partially causing damage of more than US$75 million.91 Major rivers such as the Brahmaputra, the Padma and the Meghna consume several thousand ha of land on both sides of their banks making thousands of people landless and homeless every year. Some major cities and towns such as Chandpur, Rajshahi and Faridpur are also threatened by erosion. While the rate of erosion along the major rivers may vary from one period to other, during the last three decades the Brahmaputra and the Padma rivers have consumed 180,000 ha of agricultural land.92 From the 1970s to early 1990s the extent of mean annual erosion was about 3,300 ha along both banks of the River Jamuna.93 During the last decade erosion along the river seems to have diminished
50 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

slightly ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 ha per year.94 River bank erosion is due to extraction of sands and stones from riverbanks or rivers to help construct buildings.95 But in most cases, riverbank erosion is a natural phenomenon. It primarily affects the poor, small landowners who live near the riverbank. It affects their well-being in terms of safety and shelter, as well as sources of livelihood.96 However, the impact is severest among the landless and impoverished farmers. Although some poor small landholders can rely on existing tenancy structures and resume their livelihoods, widespread erosion not only destroys their homes and land, but also their source of income and food on a large scale. A study indicated that 62 % of the displaced population is affected by the erosion, including a large proportion of the people earning under US$1-2 per day,97 which makes them unable to buy food. Additionally, the same study suggests that those who have been displaced due to river bank erosion are also affected by mental stress because of social fragmentation and difficulties in adjusting to urban areas where they usually migrate.98 Womens well-being is particularly affected when they are displaced as they become more secluded, and subordinate, as social pressures to wear a purdah increases in their new place of refuge. Displacement in urban areas among women also causes purposelessness, whereas in rural areas they play a critical role in household economics. Although it can be suggested floods and river bank erosion leads to char formationemerging land or islands in the middle of braided rivers creating land for re-settlement and agricultural productionthese lands are not enough to improve peoples well-being. Living and working conditions in chars are difficult since they are not connected to the mainland and are prone to acute erosion and flooding.99 In addition to natural drivers of change with regards to rivers, development projects as external drivers have also significantly contributed to changes in ecosystem services. For instance, the Farakka Barrage constructed by India in 1975 to divert water from the Ganga has led to droughts in lower Ganga channels within Bangladesh, as well as siltation and salinity. Such changes in regulating services have greatly affected the well-being of many people in Bangladesh due to significant losses in agriculture, fisheries, forestry, industry, navigation, and water supply amounting to US$3 billion annually.100 Development planners have, however, tried to minimize the impact of floods and riverbank erosion on floodplains by creating the Flood Action Plan (FAP), 1989-1995. FAP was a concerted effort by various development organizations such as the World Bank, UNDP, and USAID, along with the government of Bangladesh.101 The FAP suggested policies to promote physical solutions to flooding and riverbank erosion by promoting embankments. It also called for understanding the environmental impact that embankments could have, as well as ways in which to improve relief efforts, flood-proof villages, and share data. Policy documents such as FAP, however, are marked with controversy with regards to the feasibility of embankment projects. On the one hand, in some embankment areas they provide shelter during floods, access to roads is maintained so that transportation and trade do not become disrupted during the monsoon, and aman rice does not become affected. On the other hand, embankments have created a false sense of security since

In addition to natural drivers of change with regard to rivers, development projects as external drivers have also significantly contributed to changes in ecosystem services. The question remains whether technological feats are adequate enough
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Wetlands: Haor and beel The total area of rivers and wetlands in Bangladesh has been variously estimated at between seven and eight million ha, i.e. about 50% of the total land surface. This includes at least 480,000 ha of permanent rivers and streams, 610,000 ha of estuaries and mangrove swamps, between 120,000 and 290,000 ha of haors, baors and beels, over 90,000 ha of large water storage reservoirs, 150,000180,000 ha of small tanks and fish ponds, 90,000-115,000 ha of shrimp ponds, and some 5,770,000 ha of land which is seasonally inundated to a depth of 30 cm or more.103 Wetlands offer numerous regulating services: water (for rice cultivation and aquaculture), grazing land, food, fiber and medicines. Regulating functions include providing nutrients through floods, natural purification of water and recharging of groundwater.104 Additionally, wetlands help to store flood water, stabilize shoreline, reduce soil erosion, remove or retain nutrients and provide food for plants and animals. They offer water transportation, preserve biodiversity and stabilize micro-climates.105 Within wetlands of Bangladesh, there are unique areas of backwater swamps that significantly contribute to peoples well-being. One type of backwater swamp is known as haor or bowl-shaped depressions located between the natural levees of rivers. Hakaluki haor, one of the largest in Bangladesh, provides ecosystem services to 190,000 people. Using bio-economic models, IUCN has estimated that the economic value of Hakaluki Haor is Tk 585.75 (US$ 7.15) per year.106 Similarly, USAID has also estimated the economic value of Hail Haor, which amounts to Tk 36,990 (US$ 452) per year.107 Provisioning resources in such haors include plants, fish, birds and other wildlife. People have also practiced indigenous methods of floating cultivation or dhap (also referred to as hydroponics) in wetland areas for centuries, which have provided them resources such as vegetables. Cultivation on dhap can lead farmers to earn up to Tk 16,000 (US$ 195) per season. Fish (260 species)108 and migratory birds contribute to well-being in relation to health as they provide nutrition and economic well-being since many people are involved in fisheries. It has been estimated that 80% of people in rural Bangladesh depend on wetlands areas, such as haors, for fish and other aquatic resources.109 Provisioning resources, such as fish, are depleting for several reasons. The drivers of change include overharvesting of fish, loss of habitat and connectivity, paving roads and flood embankment and water control structures that block fish migration and cause rivers to die. These drivers of change also increase drainage congestion, reduce surface water due to irrigation of rice field during winter, increase water pollution due to dumping of industrial waste, deforestation and poor land management that causes siltation and filling up of wetlands and the use of fine mesh nets.110 Regulating services, such as flood control and storm surge protection, have also degraded due to transportation and communication infrastructure that cover up wetlands. Additionally, poor property rights prevent poor people who depend on common property resources from accessing natural resources from haors since the government controls many wetland areas. The government only provides short-term leases to people which encourages maximum exploitation while excluding poor people from use of common pool resources.111 It has been estimated that consumption of fish has fallen by 11% in recent years and 40% of fish species are threatened.112 In order to sustain economic wellbeing of people, some development interventions are helping to improve such situations.
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they can be breached and eroded, leading to a sudden onrush of water that destroys infrastructure, homes and crops.102 Because people feel secure with embankments, the costs of breached or eroded embankments are higher since people are not prepared for embankment failure. The question remains whether only technological feats, such as embankments, are adequate enough or whether a holistic approach is the solution.

Agro-ecosystems in the plain land Agriculture contributes to 23.5% of the GDP in Bangladesh and two-thirds of the population depend on agriculture as a major source of income.117 It is the largest (manmade) ecosystem in Bangladesh, covering 54% of the land. However, 50% of people are considered landless farmers and 80% have less than 2.5 acres of land. Bangladesh has the highest percentage (70%) of land under agriculture in South Asia and highest degree of intensification of agriculture.118 One of the key drivers of change in agro-ecosystems is population growth, which is growing at the rate of 2.2% per year.119 Although the rate of population growth has declined from 3% per year at independence in 1971 to 1.4% per year at present, the absolute number is still increasing by 2 million every year. This requires the production of an additional 0.5 million tons of rice every year. This led to the adoption of Green Revolution technology in Bangladesh, which included cultivating modern high yielding variety (HYV) crops. Modern varieties have now spread to two-thirds of the area under cereals.120

Development projects, such as MACH funded by USAID, have aimed to minimize the risks of overfishing by encouraging community-based natural resource management. Such an approach would build capacity of a community to address the negative impacts of overfishing on the ecosystems services while ensuring their livelihood is sustained from fishing activities. This is being initiated by participatory planning process where rules and norms to manage aquatic resources through sanctuaries have been established.113 There are also other NGO-led community based projects in various other haor areas. Although development projects may have good intention, in some cases ecosystems have degraded due to development projects that act as negative drivers of change. This has taken place in Beel Dakatia, affecting extremely poor people.114 A beel is defined as a depression and a lake that holds water permanently or seasonally in wetland areas. For instance, in order to prevent seawater from entering agricultural fields adjacent to beel areas during storms and floods, development projects have constructed polders to drain the seawater. Such projects have, however, proved to be more harmful: many polders block tidal flow of rivers and create siltation and waterlogging, which eventually do not allow sea water to be drained.115 Furthermore, ecosystem changes due to siltation and water-logging include loss of trees with economic value, land productivity, livestock, kitchen gardening, fisheries, biodiversity, and clean drinking water, all provisioning services. This change has led to an ecological crisis and loss in livelihoods for thousands of people. This has also forced many people to migrate away and/or take up various occupations to support their families affecting their financial and social well-being, especially with the loss of social networks. Additionally, peoples health has also been affected with 87% of people in the area suffered from diarrohea in the haor/beel areas.116

Real income among modern rice farmers has decreased by 18%. Stagnant output prices and rising costs of production are reasons for it. Declining productivity as well. But it can be suggested it is also related to the degradation of ecosystem services, that underpins agricultural production
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High yielding seeds of rice may potentially reduce the amount of pesticides that contribute to ecosystem degradation and, thereby, sustain agricultural production that many people in the developing world depend upon as source of income. Currently 61% of rice production in Bangladesh is allocated to modern varieties. HYV has significantly increased food production while minimizing the area of land required for agriculture. For instance, Bangladesh was able to increase its rice production from 15,043,000 tons in 1965 to 37,383,000 tons in 2003. High production level has ensured stable foodgrain prices, which has reduced the incidence of poverty.121 Some studies have considered the impact of HYV cultivation on levels of poverty. A study on the impact of HYV on various income groups and gender (i.e. very poor, poor, and non-poor men and women) indicated that, overall, yield and income have increased regardless of the various levels of poverty and gender. However, because HYV crops require a certain level of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, the price of agricultural inputs has also increased for most groups. On the one hand, this has lowered most farmers economic vulnerability across all economic positions and increased food security in most cases except for one female and poor group. On the other hand, farmers will face greater expenses due to increases in agricultural inputs, which questions the benefits of HYV crops and the adoption of Green Revolution in Bangladesh. Therefore, the study suggests that the benefits of the Green Revolution in Bangladesh are debatable.122 National economic plans, which act as a driver of change, have promoted the adoption of HYV technologies, which has led to significant decline in soil quality across all agro-ecological zones in Bangladesh. Cultivation of HYV crops resulted in constrained penetration of crop roots, reduced water infiltration and increased surface runoff in many parts of Bangladesh.123 Moreover, over time, production of HYV crops have fallen and this has primarily impacted economic well-being of farmers. Real income among modern rice farmers has decreased by 18%.124 Although the reason behind this fall was the stagnant output price and rising costs of production coupled with declining productivity, it could be suggested that the fall in income is also related to the degradation of ecosystem services, that underpins agricultural production.125 In addition to decline in soil quality, HYV technologies have also altered ecosystems services and human well-being due to heavy usage of pesticides and fertilizers. Policies promoted subsidization of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, which has contributed to the deterioration of the agro-ecosystem. The government maintained the price of urea at a very low level, but allowed the private sector to import phosphate and potash and charge international prices to farmers. As a result, the farmers use too much urea and too little other fertilizers.126 The unbalanced use of fertilizer as external inputs

All socio-economic groups, regardless of gender and economic status, have experienced loss in soil fertility due to excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers. As a result of pesticide and fertilizer use, the level of biodiversity has also fallen in terms of quantity of aquatic and land plants and animals.
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into the ecosystem and direct drivers of change has contributed to the deterioration of soil fertility. Small farmers, especially, use fertilizers for agricultural intensification since they do not have access to large agricultural land. Excessive use, however, contributes to soil degradation and water pollution. Between 2003 and 2004, 3,364,100 tons of chemical fertilizers were used in Bangladesh.127 Even more pesticides were used in Bangladesh. In 2004, 22,116,000 tons of pesticides were used.128 More than 65 % of the total agricultural land in Bangladesh is suffering from declining soil fertility and about 85 % of net area suitable for cultivation has an organic matter below the minimum requirement due to excessive use of fertilizers.129 The loss of agricultural land and supporting services, such as soil formation, can directly affect the poor whose main source of income comes from agricultural activities. Although intensified land use provides essential source of natural resources and income for poor or small farmers who do not have access to other income earning opportunities, intense use of fertilizers and pesticides can lead to loss of vegetation, depletion of soil, and destruction of habitats that all contribute to deterioration of regulating services, and thereby the reduction in economic well-being of farmers.130 A study indicated that all socio-economic groups, regardless of gender and economic status, have experienced loss in soil fertility due to excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers. As a result of pesticide and fertilizer use, the level of biodiversity has also fallen in terms of quantity of aquatic and land plants and animals. With an increase in the use of HYV crops, pests and diseases have also increased. The detrimental effect on the environment has increased vulnerability to attacks by pests and diseases, affecting the health of farmers in all economic groups. Cultivation of HYV crops has negatively affected water tables due to the increase in groundwater use to cultivate HYV crops (and diversion of inland water as discussed in the previous section). No other country in the world depends on groundwater use to the extent that Bangladesh does. It is the most important source of water for domestic, industrial, and irrigation supplies. The decrease in the water table has not only reduced biodiversity due to drought, especially in the northern Rajshahi Division and western Khulna Division, but has also exacerbated impacts on the environment and livelihoods of people living in these areas. It has been reported that 30% of cultivable land throughout the country has been affected by drought.131 However, this finding is not applicable for all the cases. Another study demonstrates that although cultivation of HYV increased vulnerability to drought, this is not the case for the areas where efficient irrigation system has been introduced. Refreshing groundwater supply has become difficult due to flood mitigation programs and the usage of levy banks as protection against flooding has reduced the spread of floodwater to replenish groundwater sources. Although Bangladesh has more surface water than many countries in the world, farmers still rely on groundwater because it is easier to access and control for irrigation. However, depletion of groundwater has led to a major environmental health issue in Bangladesh, namely arsenic poisoning. Groundwater arsenic contamination in Bangladesh is reported to be the biggest arsenic disaster in the world in terms of the affected population. Arsenic contamination in Bangladesh was first detected in Chapai Nawabgonj, in 1993; since then higher levels of arsenic (exceeding the WHO standard of 0.01 mg/l and Bangladesh standard of 0.05 mg/l) have been identified in various regions of the country.132 Seventy-five million people are at risk and 24 million are potentially exposed to arsenic contamination.133 The poor are especially vulnerable to arsenic poisoning because they are not able to buy expensive tube wells that can dig deep into the ground. Poor women in particular are more vulnerable than men to this public health crisis because they are mal-nutrient and unable to fight the arsenic contamination. In addition to physical harm, women who have been affected by arsenic poisoning
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 55

Upland and lowland forest ecosystems Upland and lowland forests combines 12% of all forest area in Bangladesh. The total land area under the Department of Forestry is 2.52 million ha.137 Most of the public forests in upland areas (600 m to 1,052 m) are in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Provisioning resources such as timber and bamboo are extremely important economic resources in CHT. The GDP from such forest resources between 2003 and 2004 amounted to Tk 56,202,000 (US$ 0.7 million).138 External infrastructure constructed for development activities also act as direct drivers of change in the CHT ecosystem. For instance, the Kaptai Lake in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), created in the early 1960s by damming the Karnaphuli River, is the largest man-made lake in East Asia, covering an area of approximately 1,036 sq km.139 Although Kaptai Lake has changed the local ecosystem into lake economy and provided opportunities for aquaculture, irrigation, and generation of electricity, it has also had negative repercussions on the local population. It has displaced approximately 10,000 ethnic families and 8,000 more families involved in practicing slash and burn cultivation.140 Social plantation programs, as one kind of development activity, also have become a debatable issue. Social plantations have created monocultures that have degraded forest soils to a significant extent.141 Deforestation to create plantations has also been another reason why 75 % of upland forest areas are susceptible to soil erosion.142 Although most literature on upland forest plantations does not directly reflect on poverty, some work implies the creation of plantations has further marginalized ethnic minorities from the forests they depend upon, worsening their level of poverty and economic well-being.143 The Khyang, for example, have been one of the most affected ethnic minority communities since expansion of government land has limited their access to ecosystem services and plantations have limited availability of forest resources.144 Ethnic communities are the worst victims of forest degradation especially because they are the ones who gather forest resources for maintaining livelihoods. Changes in the pattern of land usage are also considered as a key factor for changes in the CHT ecosystem. Studies have shown that transformation of the forests into agricultural lands, increases in population growth and lack of scientific knowledge on soil conservation methods have led to loss of soil nutrients.145 Studies also demonstrate that jhum or slash and burn cultivation practiced by the ethnic communities in CHT, instead of agro-forestry, is also a reason for upland forest degradation degraded.146 Although jhum cultivation is not an environmentally damaging practice per se, as it allows for long fallow periods and regeneration of soil and vegetation, population pressures and demand for agriculture products has reduced the amount of time for fallow periods. Furthermore, since the jhum
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face social repercussions since they become unmarriageable.134 Additionally, chemical run-off from fertilizers has also contaminated groundwater by leaching nitrate, which causes methemoglobinemia or blue baby syndrome. Therefore external inputs, such as excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides, not only alter groundwater quality, but seriously threaten the well-being of farmers and especially women with regards to their physical and mental wellbeing. In addition, it also threatens their source of income based on agriculture in agro-ecosystems.135 There are examples, however, where farmers are adopting more environmentally sensitive farming methods compared to methods involved in HYV cultivation. Many farmers rely on compost fertilizer instead of chemical fertilizers. This practice is especially beneficial as it saves farmers financial resources since price of chemical fertilizer has increased in the recent years.136 However, it is still unclear and difficult to identify environmentally friendly cultivation system which would provide more food and income security, discouraging heavy usage of chemicals on crops.

Social plantation programs, as one kind of development activity, have become a debatable issue. these have created monocultures that have degraded forest soils to a significant extent. In the Chittagong Hill Tracts, changes in the pattern of land usage are considered as a key factor in transforming that ecosystem

cultivators do not have secure land tenure, they are unwilling to switch to more environmentally and economically better agro-forestry practices. Poor, small landholders also lack of access to credit to start up agro-forestry. Therefore, poor land policies in combination with poverty creates a conducive environment for land degradation that hinders soil formation and soil regeneration. Lowland forests, such as Madhupur Tracts, share many similarities with CHT. Madhupur forests are sal (Shorea robusta) forests, offering many provisioning services in addition to hardwood used for house-building. These mostly include non-timber forests products, such as sungrass found in the undergrowth, used to make roofs, and root foods.147 Wild fruits and berries offer supplementary food to local population living in and around the forests. Additionally, medicinal plants found in such forests offer immediate treatment to various health problems.148 However, the introduction of pineapple and rubber plantations and other foreign species in the name of social forestry has caused forest degradation and has adversely affected the livelihood of Garos and Koch living in the Madhupur Tracts. In Modhupur, once abundant with medicinal plants, one can hardly find native species such as Gandhi Gazari, Ajuli, Dud Kuruj, Sonalu (Golden shower), Sesra, Jiga, Jogini Chakra, Kaika, Sidha, Sajna, Amloki. In addition, plundering of forest land through patron-client relationship and power brokerage at the backdrop of weak forest policy and management has exacerbated the incidence of deforestation.149 These social forestry schemes were advocated by the government, with the aid of major development organizations, in order to take control from local people who are viewed as illegal encroachers.150 This is, however, debatable as government sources proclaim social forestry to have had positive economic effects due to large scale production of crops while others state that social forestry has been a disaster because natural forests provide more ecosystem services, especially to the poor. This situation creates vulnerability among women and their families, as well as confrontation between ethnic minorities and plantation owners. Ethnic minorities, such as Mandis and Garos, have also not been able to access sal forest resources due to plantations.151 Thus far, these eco-zones indicate that the drivers of change are determined both by climate and human-induced changes. In the light of these concerns, environmental security, including human security, has become a critical issue that needs to be looked at with careful policy prisms. There is a need to cast new paradigm shift in policy mechanism, cooperation frameworks leading to improving quality of water, air and forests by reforming the way that humans interact with nature. In broad terms, linkages between environmental security and ecosystems demonstrates that it is imperative to restore and sustain the health, productivity, and biological diversity of ecosystems and the overall quality of life through a sound natural resource management approach that is fully integrated with social and economic goals (See Map 2, p 58).
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Map 2: Vulnerability in Bangladesh

Source: Nishat, A., S.M. Huq, B. Imamul., P. Shuvashish, A.A.H.M Reza, and M.A.S. Khan. eds. 2002. Bio-ecological Zones of Bangladesh. IUCN Bangladesh Country Office. Dhaka, Bangladesh 58 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

Environmental security: the regional context

It has been argued earlier that the issues effecting environmental security in Bangladesh is heavily dependent on the sub-ecosystems within the GBM ecosystem. We have observed that the regional cooperation mechanisms in South Asia do not adequately promote environmental security because these mechanisms have largely failed to adopt an ecosystem orientation. It has also been found that insufficient information, or in most cases lack of credible information, on present conditions i.e. the state of systems and the forces governing environmental dynamics, exists. Complex political systems in South Asia are also liable for unwillingness in sharing information that leads to chaotic behavior in regulating and managing environmental resources in the region. Over-exploitation and ecosystem degradation in the region poses serious threat to environmental security. Environmental deterioration and degradation involving deforestation, decertification, reclamation of wetlands, damming of rivers, clearing of riverine and mangrove vegetation in coastal areas have frayed the natural safety net that healthy ecosystems provide. According to recent estimates environmental degradation is threatening the health and livelihoods of two billion people living in arid regions round the world. Ecosystem disruption and over exploitation of natural resources are important drivers of violent conflict within and between states, leading to human misery and loss of life. Ecosystem disruption from natural disasterstsunami, floods in Mumbai, cyclones Aila and Sidrcaused large-scale devastation, unprecedented misery and loss of human life.152 Pollution, rising sea levels, increased ultra violet radiation and increased threat of diseases, such as malaria, HIV/AIDS, SARS and bird flu, have become much more threatening than other factors. Growing threats to environmental security demand promotion of collective security, a new form of diplomacy and international co-operation. Resolution of environment security threats will not only remedy the environmental constraints but will also serve as confidence building measures, contributing towards peace-making. In view of global ecological interdependence there is a need to design new forms of ecologically enlightened development, diplomacy and governance. Moreover, in terms of a regional approach for collective action in mitigating the environmental security, the regional countries have so far inadequately considered the following issues: Income inequality between the rich and poor has increased in Bangladesh, India and Nepal and both relative and absolute levels of poverty have gone up in these countries. Such equation leads to unequal access to resources for livelihoods; Regional cooperation is undermined by the scarcity of water and the regional food production and trading systems are becoming vulnerable to disruption. Water withdrawals have continued to grow without the efficiencies expected from improved water resources management, resulting in acute water stress in Bangladesh; Little progress has been made in solving current critical ecological problems, other than locally at a small scale and the resilience of natural and social systems is eroded to such an extent that climate change causes large scale ecological collapse; Methods of resource evaluation are not well developed, shared and introduced water is not correctly valued and benefits provided by ecosystems are often not considered in terms of economic benefits. This has led to asymmetric decision-making mechanisms at national levels; Basic human needs for water have been identified and discussed. However, significant advances have not been made in providing access to safe water for drinking, sanitation and food preparation throughout the region; Domestic water use in many parts of Bangladesh, India and Nepal are not efficient and equitable
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Bangladeshs concerns linking GBM Being part of the GBM basinthe integrated ecosystem which is regarded as the largest ecosystem in South AsiaBangladesh and India are exposed to several common complex environmental challenges. Spread over the south Asian nations of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and vast areas in the Tibet region of China, the GBM region (1,745,400 sq km) is the second largest hydrological system in the world after the Amazon.153 Two-thirds of the basin is situated in Bangladesh. The rivers in the basin collect water emerging from both the northern and southern Himalaya. The total runoff of the basin gets discharged through numerous channels that drain into the Bay of Bengal and spread roughly between the two mega-cities of Dhaka in Bangladesh and Kolkata in eastern India. The annual run-off of the basin is about 1,150 billion m3 (BCM) and the peak outflow is 141,000 BCM at the estuary.154 The two major rivers of the hydrological system are the Ganga and the Brahmaputra. These two rivers and their tributaries flow beyond national boundaries and are prone to disputes that are a common feature of international trans-boundary water-courses around the world.155 The environmental security aspect thus includes a big list of issues between Bangladesh and India. From livelihood to transportation, from agriculture to sustainable development all are related and included in the paradigm of environmental security with specific reference to environmental security. The Ganga alone is one of the most culturally and economically significant rivers on earth. Bangladesh, being in the downstream and delta portion of a huge watershed, has been most vulnerable to the water quality and quantity that flows from upstream. As we have seen in the earlier sections, the ways in which the rivers are used in these countries, can indeed have far-reaching effects on Bangladesh which is situated in the downstream. Understanding environmental security in the context of GBM ecosystem therefore entails an account of the changes in the natural environment and water usage in the basin in general, associated drivers of growth in water demand, understanding the ecosystem services provided by the waters and the linkages between ecosystems and livelihoods, including food production and biodiversity. The GBM region is home to approximately 125-140 million people. And over 300 million people are supported by the Delta. The density of population in the Delta region is 200 people/sq.km. making it one of the densest regions in the world.156 This region is particularly vulnerable to seasonal floods, heavy run-offs from melting snows and tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. In spite of this, the GBM
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enough despite of technological advances; National and regional actions to protect ecosystems have not been established. These actions should have had included comprehensive environmental water commitments and regional agreements on species protection and management; Potential sources of water-related conflicts are yet to be identified and discussed on multilateral basis. Except for SAARC Ministerial Declarations, less has been achieved in the regional level. Formal agreements/treaties are required for all the regional major river systems by specifying modes and methods of shared responsibility for environmental and ecological protection; Uniform increase throughout the region in irrigation efficiency is yet to be obtained through adoption of modern technology (e.g. sprinklers, drip irrigation, sensor and computer technology). This has led to unequal development and resource distributions in various parts in Bangladesh and India; and As we have seen, climate change cannot be fully prevented, the management policies undertaken by the countries are not harmonized with each other and need to be flexible and adaptable enough to cope with changes that are occurring.

The GBM region is home to approximately 125-140 million people. And over 300 million people are supported by the Delta. The density of population in the Delta region is 200 people/sq km, making it one of the densest regions in the world

region is one of the most thickly populated regions on Earth. The GBM region is a high-rainfall region and receives 60-80 inches of rainfall every year.157 One of the greatest challenges people living in the GBM region may face in coming years is the threat of rising sea levels, caused mostly by subsidence in the region and partly by climate change. An increase of half a metre could result in 6 million people losing their homes in this region.158 Higher temperatures related to climate change could also bring about more severe flooding of the delta, because of increased melting of snow and glaciers in the Himalayas. Climate change poses a serious threat to the people living in the low-lying areas of the GBM basin. More than one million people in the GBM region will be directly affected by 2050 from risk through coastal erosion and land loss, primarily as a result of the decreased sediment delivery by the rivers, but also through the accentuated rates of sea-level rise.159 The Sundarban delta is the largest mangrove forest in the world. It lies at the mouth of the Ganga and is spread across areas of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. The Bangladeshi and Indian portions of the forest are listed in the UNESCO world heritage list separately as the Sundarban and Sundarban National Park respectively, though they are parts of the same forest. The Sundarban are intersected by a complex network of tidal waterways, mudflats and small islands of salt-tolerant mangrove forests and present an excellent example of ongoing ecological processes. The area is known for its wide range of fauna. The most famous among these is the Bengal Tiger, but numerous species of birds, spotted deer, crocodiles and snakes also inhabit it. It is estimated that there are now 400 Bengal tigers and about 30,000 spotted deer in the Sunderban.160 The ecological balance in the GBM region is complex and very delicate, and existing temperature patterns in the region are consistent with that of global warming.

Impact of ecosystem changes on environmental security161 Changes in the flow of ecosystem services in the GBM region affect the well-being of the poor, directly or indirectly, through multiple pathways. It has been found that environmental degradation affects the poor more adversely (than the non-poor), owing to their relatively greater dependence on natures resources combined with limited diversification/exit options. Thus, to cite a few examples, degradation in Bangladeshs haor fisheries has made the poor fishermen severely indebted; soil erosion owing to hill forest degradation in Nepal has pushed farmers below poverty line; the problem of soil salinity in Bangladesh has lowered nutritional diversity of poor households and forced women members to travel up to 5 km to collect drinking water; and land degradation in dryland areas has led to increased migration due to constraints on available resources.162 However, very few studies provide detailed empirical evidence on the manner and degree of such impact on the poor, relative to
Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 61

the non-poor. Still fewer studies identify the complete impact pathways from drivers to responses in dynamic settings. The complex nature of such pathways is further aggravated by globalizations effects on local ecosystems and the consequent impact on the vulnerability of the poor people who depend on these resource systems. The factors which are at the root of the downward spiral of poverty-environmental degradationnamely, high discount rate, risk aversion, poor health, and population growth163are not the consequence of poverty alone but a myriad of other factors. Lack of connectivity to local markets and exclusion from capital markets164 result in limited livelihood options for the poor and is often a cause of degradation-causing dependence. Macro-economic shocks resulting in inflation, unemployment and fall in real wages could result in environmental degradation, but there are very few studies on such links. Insecure or incomplete property rights fail in providing incentives to the poor to invest in future conservation of resources. An ignorance of important ecosystem linkages is often the primary reason behind failures of resource management policies in the region. Ecosystem dynamics are believed to involve interactions amongst the constituent biotic and abiotic variables that operate at different temporal and spatial scales.165 Human interventions tend to influence, and be influenced by, such interactions; thus the different elements of social and economic organization (such as technology, institutions, values, and cultures) co-evolve with ecological variables.166 Institutions function at the interface of ecological and human systems governing the access to natural resources and their joint use and have their own dynamics. Here again the scale issue becomes important with different socio-economic and institutional variables displaying changes at different rates (slow, fast) and over varying spatial levels (micro, macro, meso).167 The significance of GBM ecosystem dynamics has received little attention in the economic approach to the analysis of poverty-environment interactions, especially at the empirical level. An important concept associated with ecosystem dynamics is that of ecological resilience, which has important implications for the analysis of poverty/well-being impacts of ecosystem changes. It is the resilience of the ecosystems that determines their capacity to respond to human disturbances.168 Lower resilience of ecosystems implies greater vulnerability of the poor people who depend on that ecosystem for their livelihood. Some of the studies on the dependence of the poor on ecosystem services have drawn the inference that ecosystems in effect serve as a public asset for poor households, substituting for the private assets (land, livestock, farm capital, human capital, financial wealth) that they usually lack. A study based on data from 535 households in 60 Indian villages, finds that the private asset of livestock in fact complements common resources, and that except in the case of particularly rich households, there is no scope for substitution between private assets and common-pool resources.169 Experiences in the GBM region also shows that the poor cannot afford to adopt coping strategies by spending on mitigation and defensive activities for minimizing the damages from environmental degradation. In fact, the distributional asymmetry appears to be such that the rich benefit more from ecological conservation than the poor, while the latter suffer relatively more damage from degradation. Policy responses to ecosystem degradation in India and Bangladesh Analysis of response policies for the management of ecosystem services is a critical part of a situation analysis or similar assessment process. Feasible policy responses for the management of ecosystems and the resultant maintenance of ecosystem service delivery in a particular country are governed by the countrys legislative framework. During the early 1970s, and in some cases earlier, a number
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62

of environmental laws were developed in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan largely focused on forest and bio-diversity conservation, wildlife protection, protected area management and prevention of air and water pollution. This legislative foundation provides for the use of a wide range of policy instruments and institutions to incorporate issues relating to efficiency, income distribution and poverty into ecological conservation. National policy responses in the region classified as formal (regulation by government) and informal (regulation by the civil society and local communities)differ with respect to the varying roles of government, civil society and market. Currently, the governments in the region place a regulatory emphasis on command and control instruments and direct public investments rather than incentive-based economic instruments like taxes, subsidies and marketable permits. These centralized policy responses, with very high transaction costs as well as problems of coordination, have not been particularly successful in facilitating the sustainable use of ecological resources in the region. The experience of the World Bank in forest sector projects in India shows that states with more open fiscal and institutional reforms (e.g. Andhra Pradesh) enjoy more success in reaping benefits from the projects170]. According to a report prepared by the World Bank, reform projects have proved to have potential for alleviating poverty by building the grassroot capacity for forest protection and regeneration in the communities adjacent to the forests.171 The same report recognizes that interdepartmental coordination is weak at national and state levels, and sustainability strategy, production strategies and marketing issues are given inadequate attention.172 The current strategy of substituting funds received from donors for state and central funds and lack of coordination between the donors are proving ineffective in reaping benefits in the forestry sector. Collective action (involving all the stakeholders of conservation) is now seen in the region as an institutional alternative to formal regulation. There are many success stories of communityinitiated action on natural resources management. Similarly, in the case of industrial pollution there is empirical evidence from the region that local communities can effectively exert pressure on polluting factories to undertake compliance measures. Some of the more recent policy responses for the conservation of forest and agricultural ecosystems and biodiversity are a mixture of formal and informal regulations. In some situations, granting legal rights to forest-dependent communities has reduced conflicts between government and forest communities and provided incentives for local community participation. The new environmental policies in the region recognize that effective natural resources management requires promotion of multi-stakeholder partnerships involving government, local communities, landowners and investors with inbuilt incentives for local communities and participatory practices173

The significance of GBM ecosystem dynamics has received little attention in the economic approach to the analysis of poverty-environment interactions. Experiences in the region also shows the poor cannot keep adopting coping strategies. The resilience of the ecosystem itself must be improved
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There are few examples of cases in Bangladesh in which the market agents (consumers, producers and stockholders) have incentives for voluntarily reducing pollution without any type of regulation. Some of the recent policy responses in the region are incentive-based, using prices, taxes and subsidies. There are subsidies for bio-fuels, renewable energy, bio-fertilisers and pesticides and the prices of eco products carry a market premium. A growing number of initiatives in the region generate information for designing and implementing incentive-based mechanisms such as PES (payments for ecosystem services) for ecological conservation. In the case of fragile rural ecosystems, the current policy responses have generally led to a gradual erosion of traditional knowledge and management practices. In many cases this has resulted in local communities losing control of the natural resource base and a consequent increase in the adoption of individual extractive strategies. However, there are a few instances where traditional knowledge has been successfully marketed, contributing to the sustainable livelihood of local people. Governments in South Asia have been a party to many of the multilateral environmental agreements on global environmental problems such as greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion and bio-diversity loss. Climate change is a major threat to development in the region and the development of effective regional policy responses is urgently required. Two policy development strategies that could be used to begin to address climate change are: (a) using economic instruments, price or quantity instruments (carbon pricing or tradable carbon permits); and (b) technology policy development. The polluter pays principle could be used as the basis for establishing a carbon pricing system, which would promote competition among the polluters to choose low cost abatement technologies and invest in innovation. However, a lack of information could be a barrier to implementation of a carbon pricing system and policies for setting environmental standards. Disseminating information on the threats posed by pollution and climatic change and removing the barriers to technology access may be required to facilitate the efficient functioning of a regime of carbon pricing.174 Bangladesh and India could benefit from multilateral cooperation on sharing abatement technology as well as expertise in designing effective economic instruments for pollution control. n

Areas of future research

There is a need to change the traditional mind-set from engineering agenda for rivers to ecohydrological perspectives on rivers. The study has showed that there is a significant gap in knowledge in the region regarding environmental issues. For bridging the gaps, research publications in the public domain have to receive recognition and serious attention in governmental policies and decisions. The gaps are evident from the citation patterns of official documents on water development or environmental projects in Bangladesh and India. The much-needed exchange of views between government engineers and independent water professionals, necessary for the advancement of knowledge, is absent. This has fuelled mutual suspicion not only between officials and independent experts but among co-riparian countries taking part in negotiations. The ineffectiveness of traditional water engineering to bring in development and hence, the continuing poverty in the GBM region can be linked to the absence of an ecological perspective, use of an incomplete framework for economics, ignoring of long-run economic costs, etc. By not engaging with critical opinions, the existing view of governmental water engineering has exposed its inability to evolve with time. The result has been an exclusive mode of hydro-diplomacy in south Asia.175 As mentioned earlier, the GBM region offers the most diverse and complex ecosystem in the
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South Asian region. Therefore it is not possible for a particular country to act alone and counter the environmental threats. On the contrary all the countries which are parts of the GBM ecosystem have to work together. The following measures can be suggested to deal with the emerging environmental threats:

Multi-disciplinary analysis of the GBM region as an integrated ecosystem production unit A multi-disciplinary study on GBM ecosystem needs to be undertaken which would: (i) investigate climatic and human-induced environmental change in the GBM ecosystem, specifically to evaluate effects on the biodiversity and productivity of the ecosystem, including the effects of invasive species on fisheries; (ii) develop circulation and ecosystem models, verified with observations, in order to simulate and describe environmental states of the sea and to assess trans-boundary transport; and (iii) environmental security concerns emerging from the GBM region that has potential for health, food, mass migration, loss in livelihood patterns, and conflict in future. Capacity building for co-operation on water infrastructure in the GBM ecosystem An initiative in improving national dams or barrages or review of the effectiveness of dams can be undertaken. The intended outputs should include: The governments of Bangladesh and India needs to introduce a regional regulatory framework for infrastructures on water; The governments of Bangladesh and India should set up a regional cooperative framework on dam safety and sustained intraregional cooperation, including the review of operation ability of dams; and The governments of Bangladesh and India needs to adopt an integrated framework for the monitoring and evaluating of dam performance.

A comprehensive study on water infrastructure in the GBM ecosystem National projects like dams, barrages poses severe environmental and security risks for Bangladesh and India. A comprehensive study on the effects of such infrastructure would result with the general public, especially decision-makers in the key water user sectors which will be affected by hydrological changes associated with the uncoordinated infrastructure. The narrowly perceived economic benefits of the infrastructure on the rivers have become a key element for environmental insecurity in the region. Adaptation to climate change in the GBM ecosystem A collaborative initiative can be taken to increase the adaptive capacity of Bangladeshi and Indian societies to ongoing and future climate change impacts, ensure coordination of adaptation actions in GBM area and thereby help to prevent possible negative effects on regional security.

Awareness, public participation in decision-making, education and training on environment and security risks and linkages Projects can be initiated to raise awareness of environment and security issues and hot spots by bringing in mass media, NGOs and public authorities. Enhanced media coverage of environment and security issues would strengthen capacities of public authorities, civil society and mass media to raise public awareness or the respective issues and activities; and also improve flow of official information on environment and security issues to the general public. To supplement the process,
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a civil society platform could be established to promote regional co-operation in water resource management through establishing networks of local actors from the GBM Basin, and by identifying the role of these local actors in river basin management. Initiatives should be taken to provide handson training to practicing journalists from the region on investigative and analytical approach to covering environmental and security issues and linkages in the print and electronic media.

Needs assessment, institutional and legal strengthening of environmental co-operation with India, Nepal, Bhutan and China An in-depth study to support environmental management and cooperation needs to be undertaken, based on accurate and baseline information/data. A cooperation mechanism (working groups or similar institutional arrangements, updated and adopted protocols on environmental cooperation) to support specific actions needs to be established. Besides, a regional mechanism could be established to enhance access to justice rights with respect to environmental matters. It is also required to build and significantly strengthen the national capacities for an enhanced and more effective implementation of key global and regional multilateral environment agreements (MEAs). Sustainability assessment of energy security strategies A study to assess environmental implications of the existing energy strategies in Bangladesh and India, identify environmentally sustainable solutions to strategic energy security challenges in the region and strengthen capacity for integrating environmental concerns in national energy planning can be undertaken. Needs assessment for management of shared natural resources A study to assess the needs and to encourage, enhance and support trans-boundary and regional cooperation of governments and local stakeholders on management of shared natural resources between Bangladesh and India could be facilitated.

Regional study of impacts of climate change in South Asia A study needs to be conducted to contribute to the reduction of climate change risks in South Asia as a whole. The immediate objective of the study should aim at improving understanding of the South Asian countries on regional climate change impact and enhance cooperation among them to address common climate change concerns.

Shahab Enam Khan, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

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Endnotes

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

University Press of America, Inc. Lanham, Maryland, USA, pp. 15, 18. Ibid, p6

Najam, Adil. 2003. Environment and Security: Exploring the Links, in Environment, Development and Human Security, Ibid., p. 7. See also North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 1999. Environment and Security in an International Context. Ibid.

In Non-traditional Security Issues in Southeast Asia, A.T. Tan, J.D.K. Boutin (eds.). Select, Singapore. p. 449. www.environmentsecurity.org

Ibid., pp. 11-12, citing Elliott, Lorraine. 2001. Regional Environmental Insecurity: Pursuing a Non-traditional Approach.

OECD. 2000. Environment, Security and Development Co-operation. Working paper of the OECD DAC Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/8/51/2446676.pdf Ecosystems for Life: A Bangladesh-India Initiative, on 07-09 December 2010.

This definition was developed and endorsed in the authors meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, under the IUCN Project on Background paper to Vision for Water and Nature Workshop, San Jose (Costa Rica), 20-22 June 1999. http://www.bvsde. paho.org/bvsarg/i/fulltext/security/security.pdf pdf McCartney, M.P., Acreman, M.C., and Bergkamp, G. 1999. Freshwater Ecosystem Management and Environmental Security.

10 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, IPCC 11 Cline, W.R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture. Impact Estimates by Country. Washington DC: Centre for Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Working Group II Report, Chapter 19, IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter19.

12 Easterling, W.E. et al, 2007, Food, fibre and forest products, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 13 Rahman, A, and Alam, M., 2003, Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs): 15 Climate Change Country Study Bangladesh, under the United States Climate Change Study Programme, carried out Government. IP/A/CLIM/NT/2007-09 14 Paul and Rashid 1993, Flood damage to rice crop in Bangladesh, in The Geographical Review 1993, 2 (83): pp. 151-159. Bangladesh Country Case Study, IIED Working Paper, 2003(2). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (ed) M.L. Parry et al, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, pp. 273-313.

17 Ministry of Environment and Forest, 2005, National Adaptation Programme of Action. Final Report, UNFCCC. Development. p. 92.

16 Rahman, A. and M. Alam, Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs): Bangladesh Country Case Study. IIED Working Paper, 2003(2).

by the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies in 1996, in conjunction with BIDS and BUP, with support from the US

18 Reid, H. and A. Sims. 2007. Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific. Up in Smoke Working Group on Climate Change and Bangladesh Country Case Study. IIED Working Paper, 2003(2).

19 Rahman, A. and M. Alam. 2003. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs): 20 IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working 2007, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. p. 1000 UNFCCC. Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, et al., Editors.

21 MOEF (Ministry of Environment and Forest). 2005. National Adaptation Programme of Action. Final Report. 2005. Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 67

22 Rahman, A. and M. Alam 2003. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs): Bangladesh Country Case Study. IIED Working Paper. 2003(2). pdf

23 Agrawala S, et al. 2003. Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarban. 24 Ibid.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/55/21055658.

25 IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working 26 DG Internal Policies of the European Union. 2008. Climate Change Impacts and Responses in Bangladesh. Policy 27 Harasawa, H. 2006. Key vulnerabilities and critical levels of impacts on east and southeast Asia, in Avoiding Dangerous 28 Agrawala, S. et al. 2003. Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarban. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Climate Change, in Schellnhuber H J, et al., Editors. 2006, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. p. 243-249. Department Economic and Scientific Policy. IP/A/CLIM/NT/2007-09. http://edz.bib.uni-mannheim.de/daten/edz-ma/ ep/08/EST19195.pdf Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, et al., Editors. 2007, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. p. 1000

29 The forest extends over some 200 islands, separated by 15 major distributary rivers flowing north-south, and 400 inland, which supports the largest tidal mangrove forest in the world, covering 10,200 sq. km. Of this 595,500 ha (59.3%) are in Bangladesh and 426,200 ha (42.5%) in India, 232,000 ha of which is Land. United Nations Environment Program, 2011. The Sundarban: Bangladesh. http://www.unep-wcmc.org/medialibrary/2011/06/24/ac3e5a3a/Sundarban%20 Bangladesh.pdf Bangladesh Country Case Study. IIED Working Paper, 2003(2).

interconnected tidal estuaries, creeks and canals. It forms an impenetrable saltwater swamp reaching 100-130 km

30 Rahman, A. and M. Alam. 2003. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs): 31 DG Internal Policies of the European Union. 2008. Climate Change Impacts and Responses in Bangladesh. Policy Department Economic and Scientific Policy. IP/A/CLIM/NT/2007-09. http://edz.bib.uni-mannheim.de/daten/edz-ma/ ep/08/EST19195.pdf.

32 Islam, N. 2009. Urban and Non-agricultural Impacts of Flooding Methods of Assessments and Vulnerability Analysis. 33 Presentation delivered at Economic Approaches to Climate Change and Poverty: a workshop for economic policy makers and researchers in Bangladesh, 13-14 October 2009, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Das, S. 2007. Storm Protection by Mangroves in Orissa An Analysis of the 1999 Super Cyclone.SANDEE Working Paper No. 25-07

35 Sayeed, S.K. 2007. Climate change and Bangladesh: A perspective on where we are. The Daily Star. 2007: Dhaka. Development. p. 92.

34 Earth Trends. 2008. Country Profiles: Bangladesh. World Resources Institute.

37 International Institute for Environment and Development. 2007. Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific The threat from 38 Ibid. 39 Kelkar, U, and Bhadwal S. 2007. South Asian Regional Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Implications for Development. p. 92. Human Development, in Human Development Report 2007/2008, U.U.N.D. Programme). climate change to human development and the environment. IIED: London

36 Reid, H. and A. Sims. 2007. Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific. Up in Smoke Working Group on Climate Change and

41 Kelkar, U, and Bhadwal S. 2007. South Asian Regional Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Implications for 42 Ibid 68 Human Development, in Human Development Report 2007/2008, U.U.N.D. Programme).

40 Reid, H. and A. Sims. 2007. Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific. Up in Smoke Working Group on Climate Change and

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43 Reid, H. and A. Sims. 2007. Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific. Up in Smoke Working Group on Climate Change and 44 Brown, D., T. Slaymaker, and N.K. Mann, Access to assets: Implications of climate change for land and water policies and and Responses do?file=19195 html management, O.D. Institute, Editor. 2007. Development. p. 92.

45 Policy Department Economy and Science, DG Internal Policies, European Parliament Climate Change Impacts

46 USAID, Bangladesh. 2011. Bangladesh Has Rich But Dwindling Biodiversity. http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/environ. 48 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2007. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. http://www. 50 Ibid 51 Ibid 49 Ibid dfid.gov.uk/r4d/PDF/Outputs/EnvRes/India-AnnexB-CountryReports.pdf 47 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS.

in Bangladesh, 2008. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies/download.

52 Islam, M.R. ed. 2004. Where Land Meets the Sea: A Profile of Coastal Zone of Bangladesh. Dhaka: The University Press 54 Agrawala S, et al. 2003. Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and the Sundarban. pdf 53 Ibid Limited.

55 Islam, M.R. ed. 2004. Where Land Meets the Sea: A Profile of Coastal Zone of Bangladesh. Dhaka: The University Press 56 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished. Use Policy 23: 421-435. Limited.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/55/21055658.

57 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS.

58 Ali, A.M.S. 2006. Rice to Shrimp: Land use/land cover changes and soil degradation in Southwestern Bangladesh in Land 59 Crow, B. and F. Sultana, 2002. Gender, Class, and Access to Water: Three Cases in a Poor and Crowded Delta in Society & Natural Resources 15 (8): 709-724. www.worldfishcenter.org/resource_centre/Fishing%20for%20Future%20-%20Women.pdf 1.

60 Government of Bangladesh. 2005. Fishing For A Future: Women in Community Based Fisheries Management. http://

61 Karim, M., M. Ahmed, R.K. Talukder, M.A. Taslim, and H.Z. Rahman (2006) Policy Working Paper: Dynamic Agribusiness62 Ibid focused Aquaculture for Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Bangladesh. WorldFish Center Discussion Series No.

63 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research 64 Crow, B. and F. Sultana, 2002. Gender, Class, and Access to Water: Three Cases in a Poor and Crowded Delta in Society & Natural Resources 15 (8): 709-724. and Evaluation Division. BRAC.

65 Karim, M.R. 2006. Brackish-Water Shrimp Cultivation Threatens Permanent Damage to Coastal Agriculture in 66 Crow, B. and F. Sultana, 2002. Gender, Class, and Access to Water: Three Cases in a Poor and Crowded Delta in Society & Natural Resources 15 (8): 709-724. Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis Zones. Available from: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org

Bangladesh in C.T. Hoanh, T.P. Tuong, J.W. Gowing and B. Hardy (eds.) Environment and Livelihoods in Tropical Coastal

69

68 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished. policy options in Ecological Economics, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.004

67 Hossain, A.N.H. Akhtar. 2009. Bangladesh: Flood Management. WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management. http://www.apfm.info/pdf/case_studies/bangladesh.pdf

69 Alauddin, M. and J. Quiggin .2007 . Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and Evaluation Division. BRAC.

71 Ibid

70 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and 72 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia Evaluation Division. BRAC. Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished.

74 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia 75 UNDP. 2006. Human Development Report 2006 Beyond Scarcity: Power, poverty, and the global water crisis. UNDP 2006. Evaluation Division. BRAC. Evaluation Division. BRAC. Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished.

73 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and

77 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and 78 ESPASSA. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia (ESPASSA): A Situation Analysis for India programmes/espa/documents/Final%20Report%20India%20HKH%20-%20main%20report.pdf Studies 3 (1): 43-58. and the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region. The Energy & Resources Institute: New Delhi. http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/

76 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and

79 Rahman, A. and M. Hassan. eds. 2006. Peoples Report 2004-2005 Bangladesh Environment. Dhaka: Unnayan Shamannay. 81 Hofer, T. and B. Messerli. 2006. Floods in Bangladesh: History, Dynamics and Rethinking the Role of the Himalayas. Tokyo: United Nations University Press. Strategies, and Response. International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report 122. Washington, DC: IFPRI. 80 Few, R. 2003. Flooding, vulnerability and coping strategies: local responses to a global threat in Progress in Development

82 Ninno, C, P.A. Dorosh, L.C. Smith, D.K. Roy. 2001. The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts, Household Coping 83 Ibid. 84 Ibid.

86 Hutton, D. and C.E. Haque. 2004. Human Vulnerability, Dislocation, and Human Settlement: Adaptation Process of River87 Ninno, C, P.A. Dorosh, L.C. Smith, D.K. Roy. 2001. The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts, Household Coping 88 Ibid 89 Kunii, O., S. Nakamura, R. Abdur, and S. Wakai (2002) The impact on health and risk factors of the diarrhea epidemics in the 1998 Bangladesh floods in Public Health 116: 68-74. United Nations University Press. Strategies, and Response. International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report 122. Washington. bank Erosion Erosion-induced Displacees in Bangladesh in Disasters 28 (1): 41-62.

85 Few, R. 2003. Flooding, vulnerability and coping strategies: local responses to a global threat in Progress in Development Studies 3 (1): 43-58.

90 Hofer, T. and B. Messerli. 2006. Floods in Bangladesh: History, Dynamics and Rethinking the Role of the Himalayas. Tokyo: Newsclips/Reuters_Bangladesh%20River%20Bank%20Erosion%20Affects%20Ecomony_23Sep07.pdf

91 Reuters. 2007. Bangladesh: River bank erosion affects economy. http://www.lcgbangladesh.org/derweb/flood2007/ 70 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

92 Ibid 93 Ibid 94 Ibid 95 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and Evaluation Division. BRAC. study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. PREM Working Paper 06/01.

96 Brouwer, R., S. Aftab, and L. Brander. 2006. Socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case 97 Hutton, D. and C.E. Haque. 2004. Human Vulnerability, Dislocation, and Human Settlement: Adaptation Process of River98 Ibid bank Erosion Erosion-induced Displacees in Bangladesh in Disasters 28 (1): 41-62.

99 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS. 101 Government of Bangladesh. 1995. Flood Action Plan. Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh. United Nations University Press.

102 Hofer, T. and B. Messerli. 2006. Floods in Bangladesh: History, Dynamics and Rethinking the Role of the Himalayas. Tokyo: 104 Ratner, B.D., D.T. Ha, M. Kosal, A. Nissapa, and S. Chanphengxay. 2004. Undervalued and Overlooked: Sustaining Rural 105 Billah, A.H.M.M. 2003. Green Accounting: Tropical Experience. Dhaka: Palok Publishers. http://www.worldfishcenter.org 103 Akonda, Abdul Wahab. 2008. Introduction: Bangladesh. http://ramsar.wetlands.org/Portals/15/Bangladesh.pdf

100 Rahman, A. and M. Hassan. eds. 2006. Peoples Report 2004-2005 Bangladesh Environment. Dhaka: Unnayan Shamannay.

Livelihoods Through Better Governance of Wetlands. World Fish Center Studies and Reviews No. 28. Available from:

106 IUCN. 2006. Final Report: Natural Resource Economic Evaluation of Hakaluki Haor. Prepared by IUCN Bangladesh Office in 107 USAID. 2007. Restoring Wetlands through Improved Governance: Community Based Co-Management in Bangladesh, The MACH Experience. Technical Paper 1. MACH Experience. Technical Paper 1. association with Center for Natural Resource Studies for the Ministry of Environment and Forests.

108 Ministry of Environment and Forest. 2005. National Adaptation Programme of Action. Final Report. 2005. UNFCCC. 110 Ibid.

109 USAID. 2007. Restoring Wetlands through Improved Governance: Community Based Co-Management in Bangladesh, The 111 Islam, S. T., S.D. Shamsuddin, and F. Jamal. 1999-2000. The Common Property Resources of Bangladesh: Its Use, Abuse MACH Experience. Technical Paper 1. and Potentials in The Jahangirnagar Review 23-24: 77-95.

112 USAID. 2007. Restoring Wetlands through Improved Governance: Community Based Co-Management in Bangladesh, The 113 ibid

114 Rahman, H.Z.. 1995. Ecological Reserves and Expenditure-Saving Scope for the Poor in H.Z. Rahman and M. Hossain. Eds. 115 Choudhury, N.Y., A. Paul, and B.K. Paul. 2004, Impact of coastal embankment on the flash flood in Bangladesh: a case study in Applied Geography 24: 241-258. Rethinking Rural Poverty: Bangladesh as a Case Study. New Delhi: Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd. policy options in Ecological Economics, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.004 sheets/cty_ds_BGD.html Rethinking Rural Poverty: Bangladesh as a Case Study. New Delhi: Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd.

116 Rahman, H.Z.. 1995. Ecological Reserves and Expenditure-Saving Scope for the Poor in H.Z. Rahman and M. Hossain. Eds. 117 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS. 118 Alauddin, M. and J. Quiggin .2007 . Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and 119 UNDP. 2007/2008. Human Development Report Statistics. Available in: http://hdrstats.undp.org/countries/data_

120 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis 71

123 Rasul, G. and G.B. Thapa. 2004. Sustainability of ecological and conventional agricultural systems in Bangladesh: an assessment based on environmental, economic and social perspectives in Agricultural Systems 79: 327-351. bitstream/25898/1/cp03ra01.pdf International Association of Agricultural Economists, Durban, South Africa, August 2003. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/

121 Ibid.

122 Hossain, M. Unpublished work on the impact of Green Revolution in Bangladesh.

Evaluation Division. BRAC.

124 Rahman, Sanzidur. 2003. Profit Efficiency among Bangladeshi Farmers. Contributed paper for the 25th conference of the 125 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and Evaluation Division. BRAC. Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished.

126 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia 127 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS. 128 Ibid in Agricultural Systems 92: 318-333.

131 Alauddin, M. and J. Quiggin .2007. Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and policy options in Ecological Economics, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.004

130 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and Evaluation Division. BRAC.

129 Rahman, Z. and R.J. Parkinson. 2007. Productivity and soil fertility relationships in rice production systems in Bangladesh

132 Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Alam, Md. Jahir Bin, Ahmed, A. A. Mabrur Ahmed. 2011. Evaluation of socio-economic impact of 133 Ibid

135 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and 136 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia 137 Bangladesh Forest Department. http://www.bforest.gov.bd/land.php As of 05 March 2011 138 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS. services: Dhaka, Bangladesh Workshop Report. Unpublished. Evaluation Division. BRAC.

134 Crow, B. and F. Sultana, 2002. Gender, Class, and Access to Water: Three Cases in a Poor and Crowded Delta in Society & Natural Resources 15 (8): 709-724.

arsenic contamination in Bangladesh. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health Sciences. Vol. 3. No.10. pp. 298-307.

139 The Karnaphuli Multipurpose Project begun in 1957 and was fully completed by 1963. Adanan, Swapan, 2004, Migration 140 Chaudhury, Moushumi. 2008. A Situation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Poverty Linkages in Bangladesh. Research and Bangladesh. Dhaka: Research & Advisory Services. Evaluation Division. BRAC. Land Alienation and Ethnic Conflict: Causes of Poverty in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh. Research and Advisory

141 Adnan, S. 2004. Migration, Land Alienation, and Ethnic Conflict: Causes of Poverty in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of 143 Gain, P. 2002, The Last Frontier of Bangladesh. Dhaka: Society for Environment and Human Development. Bangladesh. Dhaka: Research & Advisory Services. 142 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2005. Compendium of Environment Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka: BBS.

144 Adnan, S. 2004. Migration, Land Alienation, and Ethnic Conflict: Causes of Poverty in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of 106.

146 See, Adnan, S. 2004. Migration, Land Alienation, and Ethnic Conflict: Causes of Poverty in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of 72 Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

145 Iftekhar, M.S. and A.K.F. Hoque. 2005. Causes of forest encroachment: An analysis of Bangladesh in GeoJournal 62: 95-

Bangladesh. Dhaka: Research & Advisory Services. Also see, Rasul, G. and G.B. Thapa. 2004. Sustainability of ecological perspectives in Agricultural Systems 79: 327-351.

148 Islam, S. T. 2007. Deforestation in Bangladesh in Geography Review 20 (4): 2-5.

147 Iftekhar, M.S. and A.K.F. Hoque. 2005. Causes of forest encroachment: An analysis of Bangladesh in GeoJournal 62: 95149 Out of 46,000 acres in the Tangail part of the Modhupur forest, 7,800 acres (17%) have been given out for rubber Bangladesh. A Report Submitted to the Global Forest Coalition (GFC), the Netherlands 106.

and conventional agricultural systems in Bangladesh: an assessment based on environmental, economic and social

cultivation, 1,000 acres (2%) to the Air Force, 25,000 acres (54%) have gone into illegal possession and the FD controls

152 Varshney, CK. 2005. Growing threats to environmental security. This article has been reproduced from the Souvenir 153 Bandyopadhyay, Jayanta and Ghosh, Nilanjan, 2009. Holistic Engineering and Hydro-diplomacy in the Ganges-Brahmaputra155 Bandyopadhyay, Jayanta and Ghosh, Nilanjan, Holistic Engineering and Hydro-diplomacy in the Ganges-BrahmaputraMarch 05, 2012 Meghna Basin, in Economic & Political Weekly, September 2009 Vol xliv. 154 Ibid Meghna Basin. Economic & Political Weekly. September 2009. Vol xliv. released during the Third International Conference on Plants & Environmental Pollution (ICPEP-3) held at Lucknow from 28 November to 2 December2005. http://isebindia.com/icpep-3-s-5.html

150 Islam, S. T. 2007. Deforestation in Bangladesh in Geography Review 20 (4): 2-5. 151 Ibid.

only 9,000 acres (20%). Ahmed, Mahbub Uddin. 2008. Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in

157 Ibid 158 Ibid 159 Ibid 160 Ibid

156 India Water Portal. Effects on the Ganga-Brahmaputra Delta regions. http://www.indiawaterportal.org/node/6485 As of

161 ESPASSA, 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia. The Energy and Resources Institute: New 162 TERI, 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia. The Energy and Resources Institute: New 163 Poverty increases population pressure (fertility response), which raises the demand for land in agriculture and pasture, and in turn increases deforestation (main cause of deforestation is expansion of agriculture and pasture land). or discount rates. Delhi. Delhi

164 The access to credit requires ownership of collateral and therefore capital markets are wealth constrained. Due to 165 Holling, C. S. 1986. The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change. In W. C. Clark and R. E. 166 Aggarwal, R. M. 2006. Globalization, local ecosystems, and the rural poor. World Development 34(8): 1405-18. Ecological Economics 32: 217-39. 167 Gibson, C.C., E. Ostrom and T. K. Ahn. 2000. The concept of scale and the human dimensions of global change: a survey. European Economic Review 44: 645-65. 161-176. Munn (Eds.) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. asymmetric information, which induces adverse selection and moral hazard, credit to poor carries a high-risk premium

168 Maler, K-G, 2000. Development, ecological resources and their management: a study of complex dynamic systems.

169 Narain, U., S. Gupta, K. van t Veld. 2008. Poverty and resource dependence in rural India. Ecological Economics. 66 (1): 170 Kumar, Nalini, et.al. 2000. India: Alleviating Poverty through Forest Development. World Bank: Washington DC Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

73

171 Ibid. 172 Ibid 174 Ibid.

175 Bandyopadhyay, Jayanta and Ghosh, Nilanjan, Holistic Engineering and Hydro-diplomacy in the Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna Basin, in Economic & Political Weekly, September 2009 Vol xliv.

173 TERI, 2008. Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Study in South Asia. The Energy and Resources Institute: New Delhi

74

Environmental Security Situation Analysis Ecosystems for Life

ECOSYSTEMS FOR LIFE: A BANGLADESH-INDIA INITIATIVE Distinguished members of the Project Advisory Committee (PAC)

Bangladesh Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, Chairman, Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), Dhaka Mr C M Shafi Sami, Former Adviser to the Caretaker Government, Bangladesh Dr Mahabub Hossain, Executive Director, BRAC, Dhaka Professor AAMS Arefin Siddique, Vice Chancellor, Dhaka University, Dhaka Advocate Sultana Kamal, Executive Director, Ain-o-Salish Kendra, Dhaka Dr M A Quassem, Chairman, National Disaster Management Advisory Committee, Dhaka Dr Atiq Rahman, Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka Professor M Monowar Hossain, Executive Director, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka Professor K B Sajjadur Rasheed, Former Professor, Department of Geography, Dhaka University India Mr Ashok Jaitly, Distinguished Fellow and Director, Water Resources Division, The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi Ms Meena Gupta, Former Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India Mr M Gopalakrishnan, Secretary General, International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID), New Delhi Prof Jayanta Bandhopadhya, Professor and Head, Centre for Development and Environment Policy, Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta Prof A K Gosain, Professor of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi Mr Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, Former Ambassador of India Mr P R Sinha, Director, Wildife Institute of India (Dehradun), Member Secretary, IUCN National Committee & IUCN Member, India Mr Homi R Khusrokhan, Vice President, Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS), Mumbai and Former Managing Director, Tata Chemicals Ex-Officio Members Ms. Aban Marker Kabraji, Regional Director, IUCN Asia and Co-Chair PAC Dr T. P. Singh, Deputy Regional Director Programme, IUCN Asia and Permanent Member, PAC Mr. Ganesh Pangare, Head, Asia Water Programme, IUCN Asia and Permanent Member, PAC Mr. Ishtiaq Uddin Ahmed, Country Representative IUCN Bangladesh and Permanent Member, PAC Ms. Meenakshi Datta Ghosh, Country Representative, IUCN India and Permanent Member, PAC Mr. Frank van der Valk, Project Director, Ecosystems for Life and Member Secretary, PAC Ms. Bushra Nishat, Project Manager (Bangladesh), Ecosystems for Life and Member Secretary, NAC Mr. Kazimuddin Ahmed - Project Manager (India), Ecosystems for Life and Member Secretary, NAC IUCN Project Team Mr. Ganesh Pangare, Head, Asia Water Programme, IUCN Asia Mr. Frank van der Valk, Project Director, Ecosystems for Life Ms. Bushra Nishat, Project Manager (Bangladesh), Ecosystems for Life Mr. Kazimuddin Ahmed - Project Manager (India), Ecosystems for Life Mr. Mohammad Shahad Mahabub Chowdhury Dialogue Coordinator (Bangladesh), Ecosystems for Life Ms. Sushmita Mandal Dialogue Coordinator (India), Ecosystems for Life Mr. AJM Zobaidur Rahman Soeb Communications Officer, Ecosystems for Life Mr. Md. Emran Hasan GIS Associate (Bangladesh), Ecosystems for Life

Ecosystems for Life Environmental Security Situation Analysis

75

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE Asia Regional Office 63 Sukhumvit Soi 39 Bangkok 10110, Thailand Tel: +66 2 662 4029 Fax: +66 2 662 4389 www.iucn.org/asia Bangladesh Country Office House 16, Road 2/3, Banani Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh Tel: +8802 9890423 Fax: +8802 9892854 www.iucn.org/bangladesh India Country Office 2nd Floor, 20 Anand Lok, August Kranti Marg, New Delhi 110049, India Tel/Fax: +91 11 4605 2583 www.iucn.org/india