Prosperity without Growth

Tim Jackson 26th May 2010

Rockstrom et al, Nature 461, Sept 2009

The Dilemma of Growth

Life Expectancy at Birth
90

Life e expectan ncy at birth h (years)

80

Cuba Costa Rica Chile China

Growth is unsustainable De-growth D th is i unstable t bl

Malta N New Z Zealand l d Japan p Iceland Ireland United Kingdom Bahrain Russian Federation

Norway

United States

70
India

GDP = Labour x LP

60

Gabon South Africa

50
Mozambique Swaziland

Botswana

40

30 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 GDP per capita (PPP $2005)

The Dilemma of Growth

Source: Prosperity without growth, Tim Jackson (London, Earthscan 2009)

x 130 improvement CO2/$ < zero by 2100?

The Engine of Growth

shareholder value creative destruction

Firms

Spending Investment Increasing productivity y Income Novelty Price

Households Credit
status consumption a life without shame

Diagnosis

Society is locked into an iron cage through two mutually t ll reinforcing i f i dynamics: d i 1) economic i structure and 2) social logic: economic growth is served by these dynamics, but wellbeing is not Government itself is conflicted: its role in protecting p g macro-economic stability y contrasts with its role in defending other social goods.

09/06/2010

Prognosis

Another world is possible

Another prosperity Another economics Another social logic

09/06/2010

Another Engine of Growth?

Green technology markets Service-based activities

Ecological g Investment
investment targets investment ecology gy productivity /profitability financial markets role of public sector

Ecological g Enterprise p
low carbon/resource light service-based contribute to flourishing provide jobs support communities

Another Engine of Growth?

C + G + I + X = GDP = Y(, L, L K K, R)

Consumption C ti C Govt spending G Investment I Net export X

Productivity P d ti it Labour L Capital K Resources R

Another Engine of Growth?

Productivity growth in Europe 1985 - 2005

Ecological Enterprise Low-carbon, resource efficient economic i activities ti iti that th t provide id employment, support communities and contribute to human flourishing

Ecological Macroeconomics
Investment
ecological investment
investment targets investment ecology role of public sector

Labour
productivity revisited
sharing h i work k creating jobs productivity spectrum

Ecological limits

Ecological Macroeconomics
Consumptivity (CO2/$)

Leisure

Unpaid labour

Social enterprise

Services

Manufact -uring

Technology

Financial services

High-end jobs

Productivity ($/job)
Ecoleisure Volunteering Social enterprise Resource Management Financial services High-end jobs

Green services

Clean Tech

Another Economic Engine?

Ecological Investment
low carbon transition ecological assets livelihoods

Ecological Enterprise
provide capabilities support communities tread lightly

Economics for a finite planet

Ecosystems

Ecological investment

ecological productivity

Ecosystem services

Ecological g enterprise

Participation
improved flourishing

Capabilities

P People l

Ecological g Footsteps p

Establish the limits Fix the economics Ch Change th the social i l logic l i

Ecological g Footsteps p
Establish the Limits
1. Establishing clearly defined resource/emissions caps 1 2. Fiscal Reform for Sustainability 3. Promoting Technology Transfer and Ecosystem Protection

Fix the Economics

4. Developing an ecological macro macro-economics economics 5. Investing in jobs, assets and infrastructures 6. Increasing financial and fiscal prudence 7 Revising macro-economic accounting 7.

Change the social logic

8. Sharing the work and improving the work-life balance 9. Tackling systemic inequality 10 Measuring capabilities and flourishing 11 Strengthening human and social capital 12 Reversing the culture of consumerism

Ecological Macroeconomics

Stability without growth The role of investment Employment and productivity Public sector sustainability Consumptivity

The The crisis doesnt doesn t only make us free to imagine other models, another future, another world. It obliges us to do so. so. President Sarkozy, September 2009

http://www.earthscan.co.uk/pwg