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ADVANCED WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT Wind Resource Assessment The output of wind resource assessment, at a generic level, is wind

conditions and annual energy production at a project site. It is done from the point of view of energy production. Advanced wind resource assessment Wind assessment that are of interest to turbine manufacturers are the dynamic loads on the tower, blades, and other components of the turbine caused by extreme wind conditions Components

Extreme wind speed (EWS) Ruggedness index (RIX), an enhancement to the WAsP model for rugged terrain Wake of turbines and the associated losses in energy production Definition of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Classes of wind turbines Losses, uncertainty, and the role of uncertainty in a bankable wind resource assessment

Extreme Wind Speed (EWS) In addition to distribution of wind speed and turbulence, EWS is an important parameter. The estimated EWS is the maximum windspeed that is likely to occur in 50 years. There are several intervals of interest: 3-s, 10-s, and 10-min. For instance, v3s 50y is the 3-s average estimated EWS that is exceeded once every 50 years; v10m 50y is the 10-min average estimated EWS that is exceeded once every 50 years. These quantities are estimated statistically because, in most cases, 50-year time series of 3-s wind speeds are not available and, furthermore, any single 50-year time series may not be representative. Gumbel distribution is commonly used to model extreme values of time series data. It is a twoparameter (a, b) distribution of the form:

F(v) - annual cumulative probability that wind speed v is exceeded. Mean and standard deviation of the distribution are:

where is the Eulers constant and is equal to 0.5772. The process of finding the parameters of the distribution are:

Choose a wind speed time series that spans 10 years or more. This is recommended to obtain a higher degree of confidence in the estimate of EWS. Smaller time series increase uncertainty in the estimate of EWS. The granularity of the time series will also determine the granularity of the EWS. For example, if the time series is hourly average wind speed, then EWS will be the extreme hourly average wind speed in, say, 50 years.

Specify a threshold for sampling extreme events. For example, a threshold of 15 m/s may be used for identifying extreme wind events.

Identify a collection of extreme points in a time series with wind speeds above the threshold value. The collection must contain at least 20 points for higher degree of confidence in estimate of EWS. Smaller number of points increases uncertainty in the estimate of EWS.

An alternative is to assign probability to each event and create a Gumbel plot. A linear regression method - used in the Gumbel plot to estimate values of a and b by fitting a straight line to the extreme points. Compute 50-year and other n-year extreme values by assuming that Eq. F(v) is the annual extreme value distribution, and a n-year event occurs with an annual probability of 1/n. Therefore, the probability of not exceeding the EWS in n years is:

If the number of extreme points in step 3 suggest multiple extreme events per year (epy), then

Inverting eqn F(v) = e-e-(v-b/a) yields V = EWS = b-a(ln(-ln(prob(EWS,n))))

Example

As an example, consider the 4-year time series of hourly wind speed data from Valentine, Nebraska. Twenty events with wind speed of 20 m/s or higher are identified. These are the extreme wind speed events. The wind speeds are sorted and probabilities of occurrence not exceeding the EWS from the minimum to maximum are computed as multiples of 1 /(20 + 1). The values of ln(ln(probability(EWS))) is computed and plotted

Threshold wind speed is 20 m/s. Sample size = 20 over a 4-year period, and epy = 5 events per year. Mean of sample = 22.26 m/s, standard deviation = 2.4949 m/s. a = 1.945, b = 21.137 m/s As an example, 50-year EWS is computed using

V60m50y = EWS = b a(ln(ln(prob (EWS, n)))) = 21.137 + 1.9455.52 = 31.9 m/s. Therefore, 31.9 m/s is the 60-min mean extreme wind speed that will not be exceeded in 50 years, with a probability of 99.6%. WAsP model in rugged terrain A linear model like WAsP encounters poor prediction in rugged terrain. Examples of poor prediction are:

Met-tower is in a relatively flat area, but the planned turbine locations are in a rugged area, and vice-versa The ruggedness at the met-tower location in the 12 directional sectors is different compared to the ruggedness of turbine locations.

Ruggedness Index (RIX) Ruggedness is a measure of the change in elevation or slope of terrain. Quantitatively, ruggedness index (RIX) is defined as: Fraction of terrain surface that is steeper than a critical slope c .There are three parameters to computing RIX:

Calculation radius around a site center, normally a radius of 3.5 km is used Critical slope, normally a value of c = 0.3 is used Number of radii, normally 72 radii are used

RIX is calculated as the ratio of the sum of segment lengths to sum of the radii. If 72 radii are used, then:

where si is the length of each segment with slope above the critical slope. The difference between RIX at the turbine location and RIX at the met-tower location is called the delta RIX:

Wake of turbines The second row of turbines is in the wake of the first row of turbines. The third row of turbines is in the wake of the first and second row of turbines. Wake impacts turbines in two primary ways:

Lower wind speed and Increase in turbulence

Result in reduced energy production, while an increase in turbulence causes greater structural loading of the turbines. The reduction in energy in a wind farm because of wake - range of 2 to 20% depending on the distances and ambient turbulence.

Wind farm layout

The impact of wind speed deficit and turbulence are essentially eliminated at a distance of 20D in the wake of the rotor, where D is the diameter of the rotor. However, for efficient use of property, guidelines that are more practical have been developed. In wind farm design, a guideline of 9D distance along the primary direction of wind and 3D distance perpendicular to the primary direction of wind is used in the industry to locate turbines. There are two prominent models for computing the deficit in wind speed:

Linear model by N.O. Jensen, and Eddy viscosity model by Ainslie

N.O. Jensen Model for Wake According to the Axial momentum theory, the thrust is

In terms of a the wake wind speed, a is axial induction factor,v 2 is the wake wind speed at a distance from the rotor where the pressure is restored to p0. Wake is reached upto the point where average wake speed is v2 and pressure is p0, there is no mass transfer from the surrounding air. Beyond this point, p0 will remain the same, but the wind speed will start increasing and reach the free-flow speed of v0. This will happen because the air around slower wake will cause the wake to accelerate through either shear force or mass transfer.

Assuming a linearly expanding wake with slope of k, the deficit as a function of x becomes:

where d is the rotor diameter, k is the slope or wake decay constant, and x is the distance from the rotor. Onshore value of k = 0.075 and for offshore value of k = 0.04 are commonly used. Ainslies Eddy Viscosity Model It assumes that there is a clear demarcation between the wake and the normal wind speed throughout the wake. The Ainslie eddy viscosity model is a more sophisticated model. Turbulence in the wake has two components:

Shear-generated turbulence tip vortices shed by the blades.

The tip vortices are high frequency and decay quickly. The shear-generated turbulence is created by the substantial difference in wind speed at the outer edge of the rotor and the freestream fluid flow just outside. The axial wind speed reduces significantly in the volume behind the rotor, but just outside this volume, the wind speed is normal. The energy in the turbulence is dissipated as heat. Turbulence Modeling In addition to wind speed deficit, there is an increase in turbulence because of wake. Modeling of turbulence is primarily done through empirical models as theoretical models are less developed. Turbulence intensity in wind resource assessments is defined in terms of 10min wind speed data as:

where I0 is the ambient turbulence intensity at height h, (h) is the standard deviation, and v10(h) is the average of 10-min wind speed at height h. If average and standard deviation are not measured at hub height, then the following may be used to extrapolate turbulence to hub height

where I0 (h2) is the ambient turbulence intensity at hub height; h1, h2 are measurement and hub heights and is the shear. The total turbulence intensity is computed using:

where IT and I+ are total turbulence intensities and additional turbulence intensity because of wake. There are several empirical turbulence models to compute I+. The model suggested by IEC 61400-1, edition 3 is:

where d is the distance between two turbines normalized by rotor diameter. Wind Turbine Class Selection An integral part of wind resources assessment is to determine the wind turbine class that is suitable for the site. This step involves verifying that the actual site conditions are less severe than the design conditions for the class of turbine. For convenience, the design conditions are split into two broad categories:

Wind conditions: Extreme wind speed, turbulence, and wake effects Other conditions like terrain, soil conditions, and seismic

Wind turbine class must be chosen such that the following conditions are satisfied

Estimation of losses There are two key concepts that have not been discussed up to this point: Losses and uncertainty. These two mutually exclusive concepts, however, are often mentioned together, which causes confusion. A wind resource assessment is not bankable without a rigorous analysis of losses and uncertainty. Losses are estimates of decrease in energy output that is known. As an example, consider energy loss because of transmission of electrical energy from generator to grid. Suppose an electrical engineer estimates the electrical losses to be 2.2%. This is the expected loss in energy. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is a statistical concept that describes the unknowns associated with estimates. In the same example, several unknowns may cause the losses to be 2.1 or 2.3%. The uncertainty in the loss estimate is 0.1%. In addition to uncertainty in loss

estimates, there are uncertainties associated with estimates of the annual average energy production. This section will focus on losses and the next section will focus on uncertainty. Categories of losses

Wake losses reduced energy and increased turbulence Plant availability - Scheduled and unscheduled maintenance of turbine, balance of plant and Grid unavailability Electrical losses - Transformer losses, Transmission losses and Turbine and wind farm internal power consumption Turbine performance - aerodynamic, mechanical, or electrical performance of the turbine Environmental - Shut down, Extreme weather conditions, Seasonal activity, Lightning strikes Curtailment of energy production -low demand, high supply from other sources, grid failure, Others - Earthquakes

Uncertainty Analysis Wind resource assessment is not complete without uncertainty analysis. The reason is wind resource assessment provides information about wind speeds, which is transformed into average annual energy production (AEP), which is transformed into average revenue of the project. Uncertainty in wind resource is translated into uncertainty in AEP, which is translated into uncertainty in revenue. Any financial analysis of a wind project must consider not just the average revenue, but also the uncertainty in revenue. The most common method of incorporating uncertainty is to compute P50, P84, P95, and P99 estimates of revenue. Consider an example that has mean annual revenue of $2000 and standard deviation of $300. Table 8-6 contains the values for PN. Most financial decisions are made based on P95 or higher estimates of revenue. Therefore, a financier is keenly interested in the estimate of and the methodology used to compute it. A bankable wind assessment should contain revenue estimates for various levels of PN along with a methodology for estimation of uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty

Sensors - sensors inaccuracy, calibration inaccuracy, and inaccuracy because of mounting and setup, and other factors (like, overspeeding for cup anemometers, large volume-based measurement for Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR)) Shear model - because of extrapolation from sensor heights to hub height

The spatial distribution model - wind data is translated from measured locations to the individual wind turbine locations Long-term climate adjustment - produce a long-term wind estimate from short term measurements Plant loss uncertainty - uncertainty associated with estimates of losses

Nonbankable versus Bankable Resource Estimates One of the purposes of resource assessment is to quantify the economics of a project in a manner that would satisfy an investor. The assessment must be done with a rigor that ensures that: a) b) c) d) e) High-quality calibrated instruments are used Data has been collected properly Data has been analyzed properly An audit trail exists such that items (b) and (c) can be verified independently Losses and uncertainties associated with the wind resource over the long-term are identified and quantified

Why is uncertainty so important in determining bankability of a wind project? The reasons are wind energy depends on the cube of wind speed (in theory, and quadratic, in practice), therefore, small changes in wind speed estimates can cause the return on investment of a wind project to fluctuate significantly. A bankable resource estimate is, therefore, one in which enough verifiable data is available to quantify the uncertainty in wind resource at the planned wind project location. With uncertainty quantified, an investor can compute returns on a project for various risk scenarios. A bankable resource estimate is one that is:

Based on actual onsite measurement data with quality instruments that are calibrated, and not based on anecdotal data Based on at least 1 year of wind measurement data and not based on short-term measurement data Based on measurements at multiple heights and in which the highest anemometer is close to planned hub height, and not based on lower height measurements

A non bankable resource estimate is one that is:


It is a preliminary assessment of wind conditions normally used during prospecting for wind sites. It is normally the first stage of resource estimation when not all the uncertainties in wind conditions are completely understood or completely quantified and, therefore, the return on investment has a high degree of uncertainty. Non bankable resource estimates may be sufficient for self-financed small and micro wind projects

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