Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals
Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (- 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
Additional Disclosure
This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT).
Disclaimer:
This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
CFV MATRIX
Excellent Fundamentals
eClerx Services Ltds (eClerxs) Q3FY12 revenue in dollar terms was in line five and non-top five clients. Revenue in rupee terms, operating profitability and PAT were better than expected due to rupee depreciation. We have revised FY12 and FY13 revenue and earnings estimates upwards mainly driven by the rupee-dollar exchange rate revision of 4.5% for FY12 and 7.9% for FY13. We maintain the fundamental grade of 4/5. Q3FY12 result analysis Q3FY12 revenue in US$ terms grew by 4.5% q-o-q (~30% y-o-y) to US$ 25.4 mn driven by 4.5% q-o-q growth in revenue from both top five and non-top five clients. Revenue in rupee terms grew by 16% q-o-q (up 51.3% y-o-y) to Rs 1.3 bn due to depreciation of the rupee against the US$. Employee cost as a percent of sales declined by 444 bps q-o-q (272 bps y-o-y) to 39.3% and other expenses as a percent of sales declined by 191 bps q-o-q (76 bps y-o-y) to 15.4% mainly due to rupee depreciation. As a result, EBITDA increased by 35% q-o-q (64% y-o-y) to Rs 597 mn. EBITDA margin improved by 635 bps q-o-q (349 bps y-o-y) to 45.2%. This quarter, the company added 116 employees compared to 140 in Q2FY12 and 196 in Q3FY11 as the attrition declined to 26.3% from 38.7% in Q2FY12 and 37% in Q3FY11, and employee utilisation improved 100 bps q-o-q (200 bps y-o-y) to 72%. Forex loss incurred on derivative contracts due to weaker rupee reduced other income by ~55% q-o-q. As a result, PAT increased by ~13% q-o-q (~39% y-o-y) to Rs 499 mn despite stronger growth in EBITDA. Q3FY12 EPS was Rs 17.2. The company was able to sharply reduce debtor days to 52 from 76 days in Q2FY12 as the company focussed on collections but is expected to return to long-term average of 60-70 days. Rupee depreciated by ~14% in Q3FY12. NIFTY NSE ticker
Fundamental Grade
5 4 3 2 1
Poor Fundamentals
Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside
Face value (Rs per share) Shares outstanding (mn) Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 52-week range (Rs) (H/L) Beta Free float (%) Avg daily volumes (30-days) Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn)
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90% 80% 70% 12.5% 8.2% 20.0% 11.3% 9.1% 24.5% 11.2% 9.5% 24.5% 11.2% 10.5% 23.5%
Valuation: Current market price is aligned We continue to use the price to earnings ratio (PER) method to value eClerx. Since earnings have been revised only due to revision in the exchange rate, we maintain the fair value of Rs 760 per share. At this value, the implied P/E multiple is 11.5x FY13 EPS (ex-hedging gains) of Rs 66.4. At the current market price of Rs 716, the valuation grade is 3/5.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-11 Promote r Jun-11 FII Sep-11 DII Dec-11 Others 59.3% 55.1% 54.8% 54.8%
KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) Operating income EBITDA Adj PAT Adj EPS-Rs EPS growth (%) Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY09 1,973 815 618 21.4 38.6 2.0 48.6 41.4 33.4 12.5 15.3 FY10 2,570 1,004 735 25.5 19.0 2.9 51.1 40.2 28.1 10.3 12.3 FY11 3,421 1,345 1,327 46.0 80.4 3.7 57.2 60.5 15.6 8.7 14.0 FY12E 4,774 1,928 1,669 57.8 25.8 4.4 65.6 60.5 12.4 6.6 9.8 FY13E 6,088 2,447 1,984 68.8 18.9 5.3 64.9 55.4 10.4 5.1 7.4
ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Chetan Majithia (Head) Chinmay Sapre Suresh Guruprasad Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com chetanmajithia@crisil.com csapre@crisil.com sguruprasad@crisil.com
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
CRISIL RESEARCH | 1
38.6
6% 31%
7% 30%
7%
8%
7%
8%
9% 26%
6% 24%
33%
34%
32%
31%
63%
63%
60%
58%
61%
61%
65%
70%
88%
87%
Jun-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-11
North America
Europe
Revenues from top five and non-top five clients grew at 4.5% in US$ terms
(US$ mn) 25 20 7.3% 15 10 5 13.3 0 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.7 20.9 21.8 0% 5.9% 11.4% (US$ mn) 12% 10% 7.8% 6.3% 4.5% 8% 6% 4% 2% 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.5 -20% 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.6 -30% -0.2% -10% 0% -10% -20% 16% 17% 8% 27% 30% 20% 5% 10%
7.6%
8.2%
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-10
Jun-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-10
growth (RHS)
Sep-11
growth (RHS)
CRISIL RESEARCH | 2
Dec-11
Dec-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jun-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-09
Dec-10
Jun-11
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Dec-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
Net additions
Ending employees
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-10
Dec-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-11
Sep-10
Revenue
PAT
Sep-11
May-11
Nov-11
Mar-11
Aug-11
Mar-11
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Aug-09
Aug-10
Nov-09
Nov-10
Aug-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Apr-09
Apr-10
eClerx
NIFTY
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
eClerx
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
-indexed to 100 Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
Oct-11
CRISIL RESEARCH | 3
Dec-11
Dec-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
US$ 19.5 mn at an average US$/rupee rate of Rs 48.3 for Q4FY12. Based on this position, we expect the company to incur forex losses in the next quarter. Hence, we have assumed lower profitability in Q4FY12. Our full-year PAT estimate is Rs 1.7 mn while the company has already done PAT of Rs 1.3 bn in 9MFY12.
CRISIL RESEARCH | 4
VALUATION
We continue to use the price-to-earnings method to value eClerx. Since earnings have been revised only due to revision in the rupee-dollar exchange rate, we maintain the fair value of Rs 760 per share. At this value, the implied P/E multiple is 11.5x FY13E EPS (ex-hedging gains) of Rs 66.4. At the current market price of Rs 716, the valuation grade is 3/5.
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
eClerx Services
4x
7x
10x
13x
16x
EV
2x
4x
6x
8x
P/E movement
(Times) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -1 std dev +1 std dev
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Nov-11
Nov-11
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-11
Nov-08
Nov-09
May-08
May-09
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Sep-08
Sep-09
Premium/Discount to NIFTY
Sep-10
Average PE
* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
CRISIL RESEARCH | 5
Jan-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
FINANCIALS
Income statement (Rs mn) Operating income EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation EBIT Interest Operating PBT Other income Exceptional inc/(exp) PBT Tax provision Minority interest PAT (Reported) Less: Exceptionals Adjusted PAT Ratios FY09 Growth Operating income (%) EBITDA (%) Adj PAT (%) Adj EPS (%) Profitability EBITDA margin (%) Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) RoC E (%) RoIC (%) Valuations Price-earnings (x) Price-book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Dividend payout ratio (%) Dividend yield (%) B/S ratios Inventory days C reditors days Debtor days Working capital days Gross asset turnover (x) Net asset turnover (x) Sales/operating assets (x) C urrent ratio (x) Debt-equity (x) Net debt/equity (x) Interest coverage Per share FY09 Adj EPS (Rs) C EPS Book value Dividend (Rs) Actual o/s shares (mn) 21.4 24.2 57.4 9.6 18.9 FY10 25.5 27.9 69.3 13.5 19.0 FY11 46.0 49.1 82.6 26.2 28.9 FY12E 57.8 62.0 108.6 31.8 29.0 FY13E 68.8 73.0 139.6 37.8 29.0 73 83 46 7.2 13.4 10.8 3.9 (0.6) 8.1 51 56 50 6.9 13.9 13.1 4.6 (0.6) 5.8 61 70 34 7.1 14.9 12.5 2.8 (0.8) NM 60 65 37 7.0 14.8 12.3 4.1 (0.6) NM 62 65 49 7.7 19.5 16.2 4.3 (0.7) NM Quarterly financials (Rs mn) Net Sales C hange (q-o-q) EBITDA C hange (q-o-q) EBITDA margin PAT Adj PAT C hange (q-o-q) Adj PAT margin Adj EPS Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 872 6% 364 22% 41.8% 360 360 30% 41.3% 12.5 955 10% 401 10% 42.0% 398 398 11% 41.7% 13.8 996 4% 391 -3% 39.2% 352 352 -12% 35.3% 12.2 1,137 14% 442 13% 38.9% 442 442 26% 38.9% 15.2 Q3FY12 1,320 16% 597 35% 45.2% 499 499 13% 37.8% 17.2 33.4 12.5 15.3 6.3 44.8 2.0 28.1 10.3 12.3 4.8 53.0 2.9 15.6 8.7 14.0 5.5 61.6 3.7 12.4 6.6 9.8 4.0 55.0 4.4 10.4 5.1 7.4 3.0 55.0 5.3 41.3 31.3 41.4 48.6 58.7 39.1 28.6 40.2 51.1 63.9 39.3 38.8 60.5 57.2 103.3 40.4 35.0 60.5 65.6 161.6 40.2 32.6 55.4 64.9 143.8 Cash flow (Rs mn) Pre-tax profit Total tax paid Depreciation Working capital changes Net cash from operations Cash from investments C apital expenditure Investments and others Net cash from investments Cash from financing Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Others (incl extraordinaries) Net cash from financing C hange in cash position C losing cash 1 (40) (277) (13) (329) (11) 213 (390) (9) (393) 259 472 5 (755) (212) (942) 1,043 1,515 25 (918) (918) 112 1,627 (1,091) (1,091) 887 2,514 (127) (197) (324) (82) 76 (6) (139) 496 357 (214) (214) (5) (5) FY09 694 (81) 79 (50) 643 FY10 828 (93) 70 (147) 659 FY11 1,494 (167) 91 209 1,627 FY12E 2,060 (392) 119 (544) 1,244 FY13E 2,512 (528) 123 (124) 1,983 62.2 65.6 38.6 38.6 30.3 23.2 19.0 19.0 33.1 34.0 80.4 80.4 39.5 43.3 25.8 25.8 27.5 26.9 18.9 18.9 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 618 618 694 77 735 735 FY09 1,973 815 41.3% 79 735 91 644 50 828 93 FY10 2,570 1,004 39.1% 70 934 160 774 54 FY11 3,421 1,345 39.3% 91 1,254 (165) 1,419 75 (102) 1,392 168 1,224 (102) 1,327 FY12E 4,774 1,928 40.4% 119 1,809 1,809 251 2,060 391 1,669 1,669 FY13E 6,088 2,447 40.2% 123 2,324 2,324 188 2,512 528 1,984 1,984 Balance Sheet (Rs mn) Liabilities Equity share capital Reserves Minorities Net worth C onvertible debt Other debt Total debt Deferred tax liability (net) Total liabilities Assets Net fixed assets C apital WIP Total fixed assets Investments Current assets Inventory Sundry debtors Loans and advances C ash & bank balance Marketable securities Total current assets Total current liabilities Net current assets Intangibles/Misc. expenditure Total assets 451 289 213 851 1,804 465 1,339 123 1,649 392 492 472 775 2,132 463 1,669 117 1,992 659 690 1,515 279 3,143 1,136 2,007 29 2,377 850 764 1,627 279 3,520 857 2,662 29 3,127 1,084 913 2,514 279 4,790 1,117 3,673 29 4,020 187 1 188 183 22 205 275 65 341 370 65 436 253 65 318 189 1,467 1,657 (7) 1,649 190 1,809 1,999 (7) 1,992 289 2,095 2,384 (7) 2,377 290 2,844 3,135 (7) 3,127 290 3,737 4,028 (7) 4,020 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
CRISIL RESEARCH | 6
Analytical Contacts
Tarun Bhatia Prasad Koparkar Chetan Majithia Jiju Vidyadharan Ajay D'Souza Ajay Srinivasan Sridhar C Manoj Mohta Sudhir Nair Director, Capital Markets Head, Industry & Customised Research Head, Equities Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research Head, Industry Research Head, Industry Research Head, Industry Research Head, Customised Research Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3226 +91 (22) 3342 3137 +91 (22) 3342 4148 +91 (22) 3342 8091 +91 (22) 3342 3567 +91 (22) 3342 3530 +91 (22) 3342 3546 +91 (22) 3342 3554 +91 (22) 3342 3526 tbhatia@crisil.com pkoparkar@crisil.com chetanmajithia@crisil.com jvidyadharan@crisil.com adsouza@crisil.com ajsrinivasan@crisil.com sridharc@crisil.com mmohta@crisil.com snair@crisil.com
Business Development
Vinaya Dongre Ashish Sethi Head, Industry & Customised Research Head, Capital Markets +91 (22) 33428025 +91 (22) 33428023 vdongre@crisil.com asethi@crisil.com
Industry & Customized Research ) ) ) Provide comprehensive research coverage across 65 sectors Customised research on market sizing, demand modelling and entry strategies Customised research content for Information Memorandum and Offer Documents
About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations.
To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:
Ashish Sethi Vinaya Dongre Head, Head, Business Business Development Development asethi@crisil.com I I Phone : 9920807575 Email : vdongre@crisil.com Phone : 9920225174 Sagar Sawarkar Senior Manager, Business Development Email : ssawarkar@crisil.com I Phone : 9821638322 Ashish Sawarkar Sagar Sethi Head, Senior Business Manager, Development Business Development Email : ssawarkar@crisil.com I Phone : 9920807575 : 9821638322 asethi@crisil.com I Phone
Regional Contacts:
Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : vishah@crisil.com I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth Senior Manager, Business Development Email : gs@crisil.com I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : kponnuru@crisil.com I Phone : 9642004668 Delhi Arjun Gopalkrishnan - Manager, Business Development Email :agopalakrishnan@crisil.com I Phone : 9833364422 Kolkata Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development Email : priyagarwal@crisil.com I Phone : 9903060685 Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development Email : vtandon@crisil.com I Phone : 9903060685
Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076 Phone : 91-22-3342 3000 Web: www.crisil.com Download reports from: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.