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Among the major developed countries, the US again saw the strongest pace of expansion in May as has been the case over much of the past three years. The gap has narrowed significantly with the UK and Japan, however, both of which saw strong upturns in May. The UK PMI showed the fastest pace of expansion since the start of 2012, while growth in Japan was the best since data were first collected in midmid2007 Th 2007. The eurozone, i in contrast, t t contracted t t d once again, i although the rate of decline moderated for a second successive month to raise hopes that the regions region s downturn is easing.
The PMIs also indicated that emerging economies are collectively undergoing one of the weakest growth patches
60
Russia, Brazil and India, and all four are seeing weaker
40
growth slipped closer towards stagnation in May May, with the exception of India. Russias growth rate was the weakest for just under three years, years the expansion in China hit a sevensevenmonth low, and Brazil saw growth barely exceed the low seen back in March.
50
48
46
44 France Taiwan Poland Spain Austria Japan a Indonesia and Switzerla Canada India Greece Italy nds Netherlan Vietnam China Russia South Afr rica Brazil Turkey UK Mexico US Czech Re ep. y Germany WORLD S Korea
Asian exports
Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders Index 60
50
40
-1%
Eurozone set for further GDP fall in Q2, but rate of decline not worsening
The ECBs pledge to be ready to act if the economic data flow deteriorated seems redundant after PMI data showed the regions region s downturn easing for a second successive month in May May. The euro area still looks to be on course to contract for a seventh quarter running in Q2, with GDP down by a similar extent to the 0.2% fall seen in Q1, but the downturn is at least not getting worse. Germany showed signs of stabilising and Spain saw an especially sharp easing in its rate of decline.
Output by country
PMI Output Index (manufacturing and services) 65 60 55 50 45
-1.0% -1.5% 1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% 40 35 30 25 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Germany Italy Spain France
US manufacturing
US PMI Output Index Manufacturing production, 3m/3m % change 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Markit PMI Manufacturing output -8% -6% 0% -2% -4% 4% 2%
60
10
Unemployment rates
Unemployment rate % 14 12 10 8 6 45 4 2 0 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 US Japan Eurozone UK
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