=

Lithuania
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS December 15, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail: jenny.nordgren@seb.se

The Lithuanian economy is entering a recession next year and the close down of the nuclear reactor
Ignalina will further aggravate the situation in 2010. However, the new governments’ austerity plan
and the initiated talks with the IMF could help avoid the necessity of an IMF-loan.

Country Risk Analysis

=
qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=ÉåíÉêáåÖ=~=êÉÅÉëëáçåK=qÜÉ=iáíÜì~åá~å=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=åçï=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=
Ñ~ëí=~åÇ=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=Ñçääçï=áíë= GDP Growth
åÉáÖÜÄçìêáåÖ=ÅçìåíêáÉë=áåíç=êÉÅÉëëáçå=åÉñí= 12
11
óÉ~êK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖäóI=ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë=Ñçê=dam= 10
ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~îÉ=ëÜ~êéäó=ÄÉÉå=êÉîáëÉÇ= 9

Ççïåï~êÇë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=óÉ~êë=ÇìÉ=íç=~= 8
7
Percent

ãçêÉ=ëÉîÉêÉ=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=ÄçíÜ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= 6

~åÇ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÇÉã~åÇK=qÜÉ=~ÇàìëíãÉåí=çÑ=íÜÉ= 5
4
ä~êÖÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉë=ëí~êíÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ= 3

íÜáêÇ=èì~êíÉê=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ãìÅÜ= 2
1
äçïÉê=áãéçêí=ÖêçïíÜ=EQKU=B=ÉñÅäìÇáåÖ=çáäF= 0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
ÄêáåÖáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ççïå= c.o.p 4 quarters

Ñêçã=NSKU=B=çÑ=dam=áå=nO=íç=TKO=B=áå=nPK=
Source: Reuters EcoWin

fåÑä~íáçå=ëäçïÉÇ=íç=ëíáää=ÜáÖÜ=VKN=B=áå=kçîÉãÄÉê=Ñêçã=áíë=éÉ~â=çÑ=NOKR=B=áå=gìåÉ=íÜáë=
óÉ~ê=ïÜáäÉ=ï~ÖÉë=ÅçåíáåìÉë=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=ê~éáÇäó=~í=NRJOM=B=çå=~å=~ååì~ä=Ä~ëáëK=
=
qÜÉ=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=~åíáJÅêáëáë=éä~åK=qÜÉ=åÉï=ÅÉåíêÉJêáÖÜí=Åç~äáíáçå=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=
Ü~ë=éêÉëÉåíÉÇ=~å=“~åíáJÅêáëáë=éä~åÒ=íç=ÅçéÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êé=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ëäçïÇçïåK=qÜÉ=
éä~å=éêçéçëÉë=ÑáëÅ~ä=~ìëíÉêáíó=ãÉ~ëìêÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=NO=B=Åìí=áå=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ï~ÖÉë=
EÉñÅäìÇáåÖ=ÜÉ~äíÜ=~åÇ=ÉÇìÅ~íáçå=ëÉÅíçêëF=Äìí=~äëç=í~ñ=êÉÑçêãë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=
s^q=Ñêçã=NU=B=íç=NV=B=~åÇ=~=åÉï=“Ñä~í=í~ñÒ=çÑ=OM=B=Ñçê=éÉêëçå~ä=áåÅçãÉ=~åÇ=
Åçêéçê~íÉ=í~ñÉë=ÅìêêÉåíäó=~í=OQ=B=~åÇ=NR=B=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóK=qÜÉëÉ=ãÉ~ëìêÉë=~êÉ=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=
íç=ÄêáåÖ=Ççïå=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=ÄÉäçï=N=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMV=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=
éêÉîáçìë=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=í~êÖÉí=çÑ=OKP=B=çÑ=damK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=
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fjc=íç=sáäåáìë=Ñçê=ÇáëÅìëëáçåëK=eçéÉë=~êÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~ìëíÉêáíó=éä~å=íç=ÇÉ~ä=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=
äççãáåÖ=ÄìÇÖÉí~êó=éêçÄäÉãë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåáíá~íÉÇ=í~äâë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=fjc=ïáää=ÜÉäé=~îçáÇ=~=
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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December, 2008

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OMNO=ëÉÉã=íç=Ü~îÉ=Ñ~áäÉÇK=qÜáë=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çå=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áå=OMNM=
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çÑ=åÉñí=óÉ~ê=ëçãÉïÜ~í=ãçÇÉê~íáåÖ=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìëäó=~ëëìãÉÇ=~ÇîÉêëÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çå=íÜÉ=
ÉÅçåçãóK=iáíÜì~åá~=áë=ÅìêêÉåíäó=é~óáåÖ=~êçìåÇ=ARMMLíÅã=~åÇ=å~íìê~ä=Ö~ë=ã~âÉë=PKS=
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ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ÇìÉ=íç=~=ãçêÉ=ëÉîÉêÉ=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÇÉã~åÇK=qç=ÅçéÉ=
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hÉó=ê~íáçë OMMU Resilience
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mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääKF PKQ ÅÉåíÉê=êÉÇìÅÉë=êáëâK 14

12

NQOUQ
10
damLÅ~éáí~=EAF 8
6
Macro balance Liquidity
dam=EBÅÜÖKF PKTB
4
2
0

fåÑä~íáçå= NNKRB
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=_~ä~åÅÉLdam JNPKNB
Absence of event
oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF Q risk
Information

_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam JOKTB
Lithuania Average EM
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam NRB Estonia

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW dê~éÜW=iáíÜì~åá~Dë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=áë=ëíêçåÖÉê=çå=äçåÖ=

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2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December, 2008

=
=
Key data: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP (bill. US$) 19 23 26 30 39 48 44 48
GDP/capita (US$) 5388 6555 7584 8827 11471 14284 13137 14292
GDP (change) 10.2% 7.4% 7.8% 7.8% 8.9% 3.7% -2.0% -2.0%
Investments/GDP 21.2% 22.9% 23.6% 26.2% 29.0% 27.4% 26.6% 28.2%
Budget balance/GDP -1.3% -1.5% -0.5% -0.4% -1.2% -2.7% -3.6% -4.0%
Govt debt/GDP 39.3% 33.8% 26.9% 22.5% 18.5% 15.3% 14.0% 12.7%
CPI inflation (%) -1.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.8% 5.7% 11.5% 8.0% 7.0%
Money demand (%) 21% 20% 29% 17% 16% -5% 0% 2%
Stock prices (%change) 105.8% 68.2% 52.9% 9.8% 4.4%
Interest rates 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2%
Exch. Rate ($) 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.8
Trade/GDP (%) 90% 82% 83% 81% 68% 61% 68% 66%
Oil price (Brent) 29 38 54 65 73 96 50 53
Billions US $
Export of goods 7.9 8.3 9.7 10.9 11.4 12.5 12.9 13.7
Imports of goods 8.9 10.2 11.9 13.6 15.1 16.7 16.9 17.8
Other: -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.1 -0.4 -0.1
Current account -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -3.2 -5.3 -6.3 -4.5 -4.1
as % of GDP -6.9% -7.6% -7.0% -10.7% -13.5% -13.1% -10.1% -8.7%
FDI 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9
Loan repayments (MUSD) -0.7 -0.9 -1.8 -1.4 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0
Net other capital flows (MUSD) 3.0 2.3 3.2 5.0 8.1 6.2 7.9 7.9
Balance of payments 1.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 1.9 -1.2 1.7 1.7
Reserves 3.4 3.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 6.3 8.0 9.7
Total debt 34.0 34.9 38.1 40.6 50.9 54.9 58.3 61.9
o/w short term debt 2.0 2.2 4.5 7.7 13.6 14.1 15.5 16.9
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates

Rating history
Fitch (eoy) BBB A- A- A- A
Moody's (eoy) A3 A3 A3 A3 A2
S&P (eoy) BBB+ A- A A A
Type of government: Parliamentary Democracy
Next elections Presidential elections June 2009
Other:
Latest PC deal None
Latest IMF arrangements SBA 2001
D o m e s t ic c r e d it
W ages
130
2 5 .0
120
2 2 .5
110
Annual percentage change

2 0 .0
Annual % change

100
1 7 .5 H o u s e h o ld s
90
1 5 .0
80
1 2 .5
70
1 0 .0
60
7 .5
50
5 .0
40
2 .5
30
0 .0 T o ta l
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 20
10
W h o le e c o n o m y [ c .o . p 4 q u a r t e r s ] 02 03 04 05 06 07
P u b l ic s e c to r [c .o .p 4 q u a r te r s ]
P r iv a te s e c to r [c .o .p 4 q u a r te r s ] S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

S to c k m a rk e t In f la t io n ( C P I)
O M X V i l n i u s In d e x 1 1 2 .5
6 00
1 1 0 .0
5 00
1 0 7 .5
4 00
Index

1 0 5 .0
Index

3 00
1 0 2 .5
2 00

1 0 0 .0
1 00

9 7 .5
0
0 2 03 04 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

=
=

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis December, 2008

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