Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 10, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 58.05 in todays session. Chinese markets were closed today on eve of Dragon Boat festival. French Industrial Production increased by 2.2 percent in April. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -11.6-mark in May. Indian Rupee touched a lifetime low of 58.05-level today on the back of heavy dollar demand from oil importers coupled with worries over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) of the country. Further, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) also added downside pressure on the currency. European equities are trading higher today on account of favorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the green. French Industrial Production increased by 2.2 percent in April as against a decline of 0.6 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in April from earlier drop of 0.9 percent in March. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -11.6-mark in May as compared to -15.6-level in April. Spot gold prices declined by 0.15 percent today on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to decline in safe haven demand. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in yellow metal prices. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell 0.5 percent today. Additionally, strength in the DX added downside pressure on white metal prices. Depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices. The base metals group declined today on account of strength in the DX. Further, rise in the LME inventories also added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of optimistic global markets coupled with favorable economic data from the Euro Zone. Less volatility was observed today in the base metals set as Chinese markets closed today on eve of Dragon Boat festival. On the domestic front, depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.4 percent today taking cues from strength in the DX coupled with slow economic growth in China. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of upbeat global markets along with South Sudan threatens to halt its crude exports which can lead to supply concerns from the region. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 10 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5907.90 19530.35 13141.85 1927.19 16679.65

5931.65 19585.75 13514.20 1934.92 16768.31

5857.40 19366.82 13141.37 1923.59 16604.00

5878.00 19441.07 13514.20 1932.70 16604.00

-0.05 0.06 4.94 0.46 -0.50

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 10 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.80 1.3206 57.25

82.00 1.3229 58.051

81.66 1.3176 57.157

81.855 1.3215 57.972 as at 4.30 pm 10 June 13

0.24 -0.05 1.62

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex July 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil June 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1382.75 1378.80 27617.00 21.74 28.23 43140 96.09 104.56 5522 7175.00 412.10 1892.00 107.50 2150 123.45 14975 861.00 1935.75 109.10

1387.65 1385.80 27784.0 21.85 0.2163 43471 96.25 104.76 5562 7195.50 415.10 1892.00 108.20 2150 123.70 15000 867.90 1938.00 110.60

1375.99 1376.00 27586.0 21.50 0.21535 42682 95.56 104.01 5519 7130.00 411.10 1865.00 107.10 2115 122.40 14910 860.70 1926.00 109.10

1381.79 1379.50 27730.00 21.75 0.21535 43152 95.66 104.18 5543 7146.25 413.10 1881.75 107.70 2128 123.05 14938 866.10 1929.75 110.25

-0.15 -0.25 0.54 -0.51 -0.93 0.38 -0.39 -0.36 0.54 -1.22 -0.04 -0.71 0.00 -1.53 -0.53 -0.35 0.28 -0.17 0.73

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 10, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals to trade lower on the back of upbeat global markets which will lead to fall in safe haven demand. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices. In case of base metals and crude oil prices are expected to decline of account of slow growth in the Chinese economy which is second largest economy in the world. This factor will affect the demand for the commodity. However, sharp downside in crude oil prices will be cushioned as a result of threats from South Sudan to halt its crude exports.

Technical Outook for evening session 10 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil June13 Nymex Crude Oil July13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27560 1353 42650 20.71 5980 5500 94.5 219 7080 408 106.8 121.9 109 850 Support 1 27730 1368 43100 21.22 6000 5530 95.4 221.5 7115 411 107.4 122.7 109.8 858 CMP 27835 1381.5 43580 21.78 6040 5562 95.74 224 7143 414.3 108 123.4 110.5 868 Resistance1 27900 1393 43800 22.02 6070 5590 96.8 226 7220 416 108.8 124.3 111.3 871 Resistance 2 28050 1409 44100 22.53 6100 5630 97.4 228 7280 419 109.6 125.3 112 878

Important Events for Today

Indicator Current Account Final GDP q/q Bank Holiday French Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country Japan Japan China Euro US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am All Day 12:15pm 7:20pm Actual 0.85T 1.0% 2.2% Forecast 0.39T 0.9% 0.2% Previous 0.34T 0.9% -0.9% Impact High Medium Medium Medium