Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar - Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Monsoon covers entire country but may begin to weaken
The South-West monsoon has covered the entire country at least a fortnight ahead of schedule in what has been a spectacular and punishing opening spell. Progress of monsoon so far has been good but it may start weakening from July said a former Director General of the IMD. Meanwhile, Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services suspected that monsoon activity might start to weaken from next week. Rains may relapse to below climatological mean (historical normal for a given period) towards end-June and into July. (Source: Business
Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 14, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19178 5808 57.51 97.85 1387

1.86 1.92 -0.86 1.20 0.70

-1.29 -1.23 0.77 1.90 0.31

-2.76 -3.12 4.93 3.86 -2.63

14.99 14.91 3.22 16.61 -14.28

.Source: Reuters

Sugar industrys eyes are on oil firms orders

Beleaguered sugar mills, whose realisations are under pressure due to high production costs and the bearish trend in prices, are eagerly looking forward to the ethanol orders from the oil marketing companies. According to sugar millers, the OMCs have issued letter of intent for about 25 crore litres, however, the purchase orders for the same are yet to be placed. The sugar mills are holding on to 55 crore litres of ethanol, which has blocked their cash flows, thereby affecting cane payments to farmers, said Abinash Verma, Director-General of the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Further, the sugar mills are keen to supply most of the balance of 50 crore litres for the next season starting October, when the crushing begins. (Source: Business Line)

Surging feed costs drive broiler prices to record high

With feed prices soaring, broiler prices have surged to a record Rs 100 a kg currently. The surge has come in handy for the poultry sector that had been battered by supply glut and sporadic incidents of bird flu during the second half of 2012. Earlier, broiler prices had soared to Rs 75 a kg in April 2011. The price of an egg, on the other hand, is also inching towards Rs 4 a piece, while layer birds are ruling at Rs 70/kg, again a new high. Feed costs that account for a third of the total input costs for the poultry sector, besides pricey vegetables and ban on fishing on the West Coast are factors behind the price rise. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar mills stare at Rs 1,600-cr loss in 2013-14 on rising output cost

The Indian sugar industry's losses are set to rise 60 per cent in the 201314 crushing season (November-October), owing to rising production costs and a fall in realisations. According to an estimate by rating agency CRISIL, the sugar industry would record a loss of Rs 1,600 crore in the coming crushing season, against an estimated Rs 1,000-crore loss in the current season. In the 2010-11 season, the industry's losses stood at Rs 400 crore. Sugar prices in the open market didn't rise in proportion to the rise in raw material prices, resulting in a loss for mills. Failure to arrest the trend may result in the closure of many units. (Source: Business Standard)

Rains may harm kharif crops sans paddy

The pre-monsoon showers have come to the aid of paddy-growers in Punjab and Haryana, but the continuous heavy rains could damage other major kharif (summer-sown) crops like cotton, maize and pulses in both the states, which may hurt output, farmers and officials said. While paddy transplantation began here on Saturday, it gathered pace in Punjab in the face of heavy rains over the past few days. Heavy rainfall has been reported from many parts of Haryana and Punjab on Friday. While paddy growers are happy with the weather conditions, those cultivating cotton, maize and pulses are worried with the heavy downpour as these crops can't tolerate water stagnation, sources said. Farmers in both Punjab and Haryana, which account for nearly 13-14% of India's total cotton output, are worried about the fate of their crop, which is in initial stages of growth. (Source: The Times of India)

More farmers may shift from cotton to pulses

Rain gods showing mercy this time with timely arrival of monsoon has helped farmers to kick start the kharif operations. But cotton, which for many years has been the main cash crop of Vidarbha, may yield place to soyabean this time. Poor sales and demand for cotton seed in western Vidarbha's Amravati division indicates that farmers could shift from cotton to pulses like tur, chana and even linseed besides soyabean. One of the reasons for this shift could be the failure of the government to announce the minimum support price (MSP). This has fuelled fears that it may not fetch much more than Rs 3,900 a quintal it got last year. If a farmer knows before hand the price, it helps him decide which crop to go for. Cotton growing has become costly and returns are poor according to NP Hirani, chairman of the state cotton growers' cooperative marketing federation. (Source: The Times of India)

Malaysia keeps crude palm oil export unchanged for fifth month
Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for July at 4.5 percent, unchanged since march, a government circular showed. The Southeast Asian country calculated a reference price of 2,382.32 ringgit per tonne for crude palm oil for July, effectively keeping the rate unchanged for the crude grade. (Source: Reuters)

China approves three GMO soybean imports

China said this week it would allow three more varieties of genetically modified soybeans to be imported. The government committee in charge of GMO (genetically modified organisms) matters Thursday issued a written statement giving the green light to a strain of beans from Germany's BASF and two created by Monsanto Far East Ltd. The beans, which were engineered to withstand herbicides and insects, will be allowed to be planted in Chinese fields. The varieties were previously approved by several other nations, the notice said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Record Soybean glut is seen worsening as Chinas appetite eases Soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may be lower than official
U.S. forecasts, deepening a glut and weighing down prices as global reserves are set to reach a record. Inbound shipments will be 63 million metric tons in the 12 months starting Oct. 1, less than the U.S. Department of Agricultures June 13 projection of 69 million tons, according to the median of 14 estimates of China-based crushers. (Source;
Bloomberg)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana July Futures traded on a positive note last week as prices recovered on account of declining arrival pressure coupled with lower level demand and settled 1.87% higher w-o-w. However, the spot remained in the negative on commencement of sowing of kharif pulses. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced in the rain fed areas Maharashtra and Karnataka on account of timely and normal rains. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in the chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX June'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 15, 2013 % change Last 3226 3229 Prev day -0.63 -0.65 WoW -1.02 2.22 MoM -4.64 -3.96
Source: Reuters

YoY -23.64 -21.44

Spread Matrix
Closing 3226.25 3229 3273 3341 20-Jun-13 2.75 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 19-Jul-13 46.75 44 0 20-Aug-13 114.75 112 68 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th June 73916 43074 9496 126486 Qty in Process 1647 469 994 3110

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 13th June 73946 43351 9967 127264 Qty in Process 1180 223 482 1885

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to continue to trade higher today on the back of declining arrivals as well as good demand from stockists at lower price levels. However, profit booking might be witnessed towards the closing session as supplies are at comfortable levels this season. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 17, 2013 Resistance 3290-3310

3220-3245

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean July futures traded on a positive note for the second consecutive week and are trading at highest levels in two months on account of tight supplies of the oilseed in the domestic markets coupled with delayed US planting and settled 2.4% higher w-o-w. Although overall price trend remained firm since past few weeks, sharp upside was capped on the back of good progress of monsoon & hopes of better sowing. The planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Soybean sowing has commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost the entire country a month before the normal schedule. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing is 1.57 lk ha against 1.56 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT Soybean settled 0.41% higher on Friday on the back of tight supplies of the crop. However, the far month contracts remained in the negative due to prospects of a record crop in the coming sesason. Prices have gained in the past few weeks on account of delayed planting and tight near-term supplies in the U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday that net weekly soybean export sales totaled 480,600 metric tons. The government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds. Soybean planting has been delayed due to heavy rains in the US Midwest and is reported at 71% as against 57% last week. However, it is much lower as against 97% last year and 5 year average of 84%.

Market Highlights

as on June 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.66 2.30 1.19 0.41 0.09 0.32 3.49 -0.77 -0.51 -0.26

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX June '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3953 3896 1517 3500 3495

MoM -3.11 -4.58 -0.52 0.00 0.55

YoY 13.99 11.46 9.42 -8.37 -5.46

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3953 3896 3862 3219.5 20-Jun-13 -57 0 19-Jul-13 -91 -34 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -733.5 -676.5 -642.5 0 as on June15, 2013 19-Jul-13 30 35 0 20-Aug-13 77 82 47 0 as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 2177 275 0 2452 as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 91 322 0 2195 271 30 2909 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3500 3495 3530 3577 20-Jun-13 -5 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 13th June 16459 1630 401 18490 Stocks as on 13th June 2960 3023 19683 634 52669 4330 1550 84849 Qty in Process 1608 275 0 1883 Qty in Process 0 20 110 0 1108 161 30 1429 Stocks as on 12th June 15693 1630 401 17724 Stocks as on 12th June 2960 2952 19361 634 51029 4160 1550 82646

Outlook
Soybean July futures are expected to trade higher on account of poor supplies coupled with positive international. However, weak international markets coupled with good progress of monsoon in the major soybean growing belts may boost sowing this year.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures declined 0.37% w-o-w on account of higher supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt. However, positive oilseeds complex supported prices at lower levels. Farmers are liquidating stocks due to good kharif sowing. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may remain under downside pressure on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. However, positive soybean prices may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 3800-3838 3516-3525 Resistance 3890-3915 3541-3550

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil July contract traded on a positive note and settled 0.92% higher tracking higher soybean prices. However, recovery in the Rupee from its all time low hit earlier last week capped sharp gains. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 2-3 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. Vegetable oil imports rose 2% to 9.17 lakh tonnes in May 2013 against 8.96 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. During Oil year 2012-13 (Nov- Oct), vegetable oil imports so far rose 10.43% to 61.97 lakh tn compared to 56.11 lakh tn year earlier. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kgs `/10 kgs USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 713.1 713.2 48.48 2410 497.7 Prev day 0.42 0.24 1.34 0.88 0.61

as on June 15, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Fut

WoW 1.16 1.52 -0.10 -0.29 0.50

MoM -1.71 -1.40 -1.58 5.70 6.46

YoY -0.32 0.20 1.00 -14.23 -5.63

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 713.1 713.2 697.5 689.8 20-Jun-13 0.1 0 19-Jul-13 -15.6 -15.7 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -23.3 -23.4 -7.7 0 as on June 15, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil prices may trade sideways with a positive bias today tracking positive soybean prices. Prices may also take cues from Rupee movement.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices traded with a positive bias last week tracking higher edible oil prices in India coupled with a weak Rupee. However, recovery in the Rupee from its all time low capped the upside and pressurized prices at higher levels. Malaysian palm oil futures settled 0.29% lower last week on account of profit taking. Prices have gained significantly on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. Malaysia has set palm oil export tax at 4.5% for July, unchanged for the fifth month. It is expected that output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, to slow this month and help to further ease stocks that have dipped below the psychological 2 mn tn mark to 1.93 mn tn in April. Out of the total Indian edible oil imports, In the first seven months of 2012-13 oil year, palm oil imports increased to 50.82 lakh tn against 41.64 lakh tn in the corresponding period previous year. However, soft oils imports fell to 9.47 lakh tn from 13.22 lakh tn. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said. The association attributed the record import of RBD palmolein to reduction in duty difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by palm oil exporting countries.

CPO Spread Matrix

30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 Closing 497.7 499.5 500.1 30-Jun-13 0 30-Jul-13 1.8 0 -

30-Aug-13 2.4 0.6 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX June contract

Outlook
CPO prices may decline taking cues from appreciation in the Rupee. However, the downside is limited and prices may recover from lower levels as good demand and lower yield period of Malaysian palm oil may again push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX June Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 690-693 490-494 Resistance 700-703 500-504
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera July futures traded on a mixed note last week with a negative bias and settled 1.15% lower w-o-w as higher arrivals have pressurized prices. However, overseas demand limited the downside and supported prices at lower levels. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. Due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey, there are production as well as supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,450 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13467 13045 5525 5566 Prev day 0.20 0.46 0.00 1.72

as on June 15, 2013 % Change WoW -0.28 -0.67 -2.50 0.32 MoM -0.75 -0.57 -7.02 -3.94 YoY -0.70 0.64 57.69 51.33

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX June '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX June '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 13466.7 13045 13165 13445 20-Jun-13 -421.7 0 19-Jul-13 -301.7 120 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -21.7 400 280 0 as on June 15, 2013 20-Jun-13 41 0 19-Jul-13 129 88 0 20-Aug-13 211 170 82 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 12th June Process 718 7492 8210 3924 NCDEX July contract 24 114 138 387

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 5525 5566 5654 5736

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Improvement in export demand may support prices. However, good supplies may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices due to overseas demand as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 13th June 727 7492 8219 3924 Qty in Process 15 0 15 655

Turmeric
After hitting a contract low of ` 5220, Turmeric futures recovered from lower levels on account of fresh export enquiries emerging at lower levels. However, good progress of the monsoon thereby expectations of good sowing capped the upside settled 0.09% higher w-o-w. Prices have declined sharply in the past few weeks due to lack of fresh overseas demand coupled with huge carryover stocks. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 2,700 bags and 3,000 bags on Friday. Exports of Turmeric between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 66,550 tn, a decline of 4%. (Source: Factiva) Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs) Outlook Turmeric may trade higher today extending last weeks gains on account of spot demand coupled with declining arrivals and fresh export enquiries at lower levels. However, huge carryover stocks may cap sharp gains. Good monsoon progress thereby prospects of good sowing may also add to the downside pressure.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 17, 2013

Support 13050-13100 5470-5560 Resistance 13220-13300 5740-5830
Source: Telequote

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices corrected last week on account profit taking at higher levels coupled with good rains in the sugarcane regions in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Prices gained earlier due to good demand ahead of Ramadan coupled with concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western part of the country coupled with higher supplies were seen capping the upside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Government notified the cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) decision to remove two key controls on sugar sector in the last month.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX June '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3069 `/qtl 484.4 $/tonne 372.89 $/tonne 3.33 2.35 0.33 Last 3064

as on June 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.25 0.07 0.00 0.62 2.13 MoM 0.04 -0.16 1.34 -1.41 YoY 4.07 7.01 -14.52 -15.97

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3063.75 3069 3100 3148 20-Jun-13 5.25 0 19-Jul-13 36.25 31 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 84.25 79 48 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Total Stocks as on 13th June 748 3172 1022 4942 Qty in Process 950 1737 0 2687 Stocks as on 12th June 748 3172 1022 4942

as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 250 1100 0 1350

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar as well as Raw sugar on the ICE recovered sharply and settled 2.35% and 3.33% higher on Friday on account of short coverings after touching a three year low. Prices have declined due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects South-Central Brazil cane crush at 589.60 million tons for 2013/2014. Main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, in its latest bi monthly report, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production. The ISO has forecast sugar surplus of atleast 3.5 mn tonnes for 2013-14 season. Reports that China may curb imports as their stocks have more than doubled last season have also added to the downside.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures are expected to trade on a mixed note today. Demand from stockists coupled with output concerns this season coupled with expectations of imposition of import duty may support prices.. However, weak international prices coupled with good rains in the cane growing regions may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 17, 2013 Resistance 3090-3110

3040-3055

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Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas traded on a positive note last week and settled 1.35% and 2.32% higher w-o-w. Prices have witnessed significant gains in the past three weeks in the domestic markets on account of thin supplies and good demand for yarn. Bullish international Cotton markets along with Weak domestic currency have also supported an upside in the cotton prices in the past couple of weeks. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1082 19390 91.29 96.4

as on June 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.46 0.84 -0.26 2.27 -0.47 7.58 0.84 3.43 MoM YoY 5.51 10.24 2.27 19.25 5.03 16.90 3.38 16.35
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19390 19680 19760 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 15, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 290 0 370 80 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 15.85 lakh ha as against 15.72 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Stocks as on 13th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

as on June 13, 2013

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Stocks as on 12th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures corrected on Friday on account of profit taking towards the end of the week and settled 0.47% lower. Prices are trading around the highest levels in three months as USDA lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the United States for the upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop as drought ravages Texas. Concern that a persistent drought will reduce output in Texas, the top U.S. producer has supported prices in the past few sessions. Further, lower planting is also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 88% v/s 95% last week, 5 year avg of 92%. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade higher tracking bullish international markets and reports of reduction in the US cotton inventory. Thin supplies and good demand for yarn may support an upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 1077-1083 19160-19300 Resistance 1092-1095 19570-19700
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| June 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
After declining sharply over the last four and a half weeks Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings as well as lower level buying and settled 1.44% lower wo-w. Prices had declined on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing. Also, Stockiest who were holding stocks in anticipation of better prices have started liquidating stocks in the physical markets which added to the supply pressure.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX June 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX June 13 Fut `/qtl 7250 `/qtl 20306 `/qtl 21130 `/qtl 4.04 -1.93 3.42 Last Prev day 7112 -1.77

as on June 15, 2013 % change WoW -2.63 0.14 -5.16 -3.07 MoM -22.49 -21.20 #N/A -23.80 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

Monsoon and Sowing

Southwest monsoon advanced in Central India 3 days before the normal schedule on July 12. A smooth progress of monsoon so far has raised expectations that monsoon will reach Rajasthan before its normal time. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon in remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, Gujarat state, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim; some more parts of MP and some more parts of Bihar, UP and south eastern Rajasthan during next 2-3 days. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 7111.75 7250 6830 5990 20-Jun-13 138.25 0 19-Jul-13 -281.75 -420 0 -

as on June 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1121.75 -1260 -840 0 as on June 15, 2013 19-Jul-13 324.2 -500 0 20-Aug-13 -1985.8 -2810 -2310 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th June 30 Qty in Process 30

NCDEX Guargum Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 20305.8 21130 20630 18320 20-Jun-13 824.2 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Stocks as on 13th June 30 Qty in Process 39

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Prices may trade higher due to demand emerging at lower levels. however, the upside maybe capped and the overall trend remain bearish in Guar complex as conditions so far are favorable for smooth advancement of monsoon in the major guar growing belts. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 6390-6500 6390-6500 19500-19850 19500-19850 Resistance 6750-6840 6740-6830 20500-20850 20500-20850
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com