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World at Risk

Global hazards
A hazard is an unexpected threat to humans and or their property A disaster is when a natural hazard has serious effects such as large loss of life or property A disaster consists of 2 components Hazardous geophysical event e.g. flood/earthquake/tsunami Vulnerable population: susceptible to humans and or economic loss because of where they live

Natural Hazard: factors effecting strength or level of risk

Past recurrence intervals Future probability Speed of onset (warning) Magnitude Duration Areal extent range of area effected

Vulnerable system: exposure, sensitivity, recurrence of:

Population Economy Land use and development Infrastructure and critical facilities Cultural assets Natural resources Tectonic to do with processes acting to shape the earths crust Climatic to do with processes affecting and causing worlds weather Geomorphological to do with nature and history of land forms and the processes that create them

Risk of disaster
Location do they live on a fault line/near the coast/disaster hotspot: more likely risk of disaster Gender people are more likely to get hurt or injured if they are indoors. Women and children are more likely to be indoors in some parts of the world Quality of buildings better the quality of buildings, the more likely it will survive the hazard Income wealthier people usually have better houses and can afford to live away from high risk areas LEDCs Poor quality buildings, poor disaster management plans and poor prediction abilities

Disaster trends
Impacts of natural hazards vary considerably around the world Asia dominates as being the continent most affected by natural hazards Vulnerability is a big part of the study of natural hazards

Disaster equation
Used to measure hazard vulnerability Hazard vulnerability = capacity of a person to cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard

Disaster risk (D) = Hazard (H) x Vulnerability (V) Capacity to cope (C)
Vulnerability based on 3 factors: 1. People HAVE to live in dangerous places cant afford other places 2. Cant afford to build well even if building regulations are enforced 3. Rapid urbanisation forced the poor into high risk areas of cities

Case study: California and Iran Earthquake

Central California and Bam (Iran) had earthquake with magnitude of 6.5 in 2003 Number of people killed varied between the two. California no. killed 2 Bam no. killed 26000 Bam has poor quality housing so couldnt stand the earthquake 75% of houses damaged Leaving 100,000 people homeless California MEDC and can afford good buildings No people left homeless Iran women and children more likely to be indoors

Global warming
Some of the largest changes in climate are being seen in the Arctic even though very little of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions come from here. Some areas in arctic cooled whilst others warmed Some will warm more than others Past 50 years the biggest average temp increase has been in Siberia, Alaska and western Canada between 2-3 degrees Largest temp change measured inland North Atlantic cooled by 1 degrees Satellite images from NASA show area of sea covered by summer polar ice cap has decrease by 20% since 1979. Arctic sea ice had thinned by almost half since 1950 Predict arctic sea ice will have disappeared completely by middle of 21st century Sea ice has an albedo it reflects back into space 90% of sunlight which strikes it If the ice disappears it will expose the ocean below which absorbs 90% of sunlight so will heat up more. Sea ice is important in keeping arctic region cool and its loss would accelerate warming in the area Scandinavia and north west Russia could experience average changes of over 6 degrees, Siberia as much as 7 degrees and eastern Canada and Greenland 3-5 degrees Average winter temp in arctic could increase by 10 degrees by 2090 Impact land and marine species, biodiversity and the traditional way of life for humans in the arctic. Also positive impacts

Sea ice
Rising temp lead to reduction of sea ice Later freezing and earlier melting will lengthen period when areas have no sea ice Loss of habitat for polar bears, cold water species of fish such as salmon Can threaten their survival However a decrease in sea ice and an increase in nutrient supply from melting ice will lead to increased productivity at the base of the marine chain as more sunlight reaches phytoplankton, meaning more food for further up the food chain More fish will eat phytoplankton More seals which eat fish Potentially more food for polar bears who eat seals Also more open water benefit some whale species

Increase in winter precipitation lead to more snow fall In spring as temp rises, melting occurs, annual fresh water run-off into arctic projected to rise by 14% Greater run-off increases the amount of nutrients and sediment reaching ocean positive and negative effects Coastal & wetland bog ecosystems expected to expand creating habitats Bog ecosystems release methane Methane is greenhouse gas with higher global warming potential than co2. 1kg of methane creates same warming as around 21kg co2 Increase in volume of freshwater into ocean impact ocean currents North Atlantic drift current brings warm surface waters towards the poles while cold water sinks and moves back towards the equator. This current keeps northwest Europe warm Change could impact fish species and climate

Impacts on biodiversity
Rise sea temp exceed thermal tolerance of the some species Loss of biodiversity Impact on seasonal migration by northward shift In Alaska and western Canada biodiversity is high 70% of rare plants species found here occur nowhere else on earth

Impact on humans
Little numbers live in arctic If fish population move, fisheries infrastructure , fish vessels, ports have to relocate which is expensive People using snowmobiles cannot move until first snowfall

Case study: Tebua

Tebua was a small island in Kiribati which is an island nation located in the central tropical pacific ocean. According to the Pacific regional environment programme the uninhabited island of Tebua disappeared under water in 1999. This is thought to be due to rising sea levels due to climate change. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by about half a metre (20 in) by 2100 due to global warming and a further rise would be inevitable. It is thus likely that within a century the nation's arable land will become subject to increased soil salination and will be largely submerged.

Farmers have to grow crops in tin cans because there is too much salt in the ground, the fish are dying because the sea is too warm, and drinking water is harder and harder to find. The small island of Tebua Tarawra has already disappeared, and the islanders of Kiribati and Tuvalu are afraid that more of their land will soon be under water. Most scientists around the world agree that the Earth is getting warmer. They believe that some places are already 2 hotter than they were 50 years ago, and that temperatures will go up another 5 in the next hundred years. This means that the ice at the North and South Pole will melt, the oceans will expand and the sea will rise by as much as one metre.

Global Cooling

The Thermohaline circulation system transports heat around the world through oceanic currents Some of these currents are surface, warm water currents e.g. the gulf stream circled Others are deep water cold currents e.g. the north Atlantic deep water For this conveyor to work warm, salty water sinks south of Iceland powering the current However if a large amount of cold, fresh water is deposited in this area the conveyor will weaker or stop glacial retreat This has occurred in the past last time 14 000 years BP. These events are called Heinrich events These events in the past were caused by ice sheets melting over Canada and caused Europe to return to the ice age Today it is believed that if large areas of the Greenland ice sheet melt or the rainfall increases over Russia that this could happen again

Are hazards increasing?

Frequency how often a hazard or event occurs Magnitude The intensity or size of a hazard or event

Why are hazards increasing?

Technology number of seismographs in existence has increased from 320 to 8000 since 1930 but magnitude has remained constant Vulnerability more people on world due to increasing population so more people effected Climate change increasing greenhouse gases International monitoring agencies CRED or SCSN Media

I think the world is a more hazardous place as the graph showing natural disasters reported from 1900 to 2008 shows an increase of natural disasters. From 1900 to 1960 there has been a gradual increase of natural disasters whilst from 1970 to 2000 there has been a dramatic increase in natural disasters reported Some people may disagree and say the world is not a more hazardous place as technology has improved over the years so hazards are easier to measure which could be the reason there are more natural hazards reported.

Humans exacerbating disasters

Growing population more people at risk (more economic activity) People migrating to cities and coasts increasing vulnerability Growth of shanty towns, more risk of homes falling down/destroyed in natural disasters Deforestation people exposed to natural disasters by removal of trees. Makes land more unstable and more floods and trees dont intercept the water (take it up) Honduras half the forest land was cleared Land rights unfair forcing poor people to live on steep hillside areas and unprotected river banks Honduras 90% of prime farmland is owned by 10% of the population Honduras 80% of rural population live on fragile hill lands Investing $1 in preventing disasters (mitigation) can save $7 in disaster recovery cost Mitigation measure more effective when integrated with sustainable development Natural vegetation ecosystems protect against coastal stumps. People build more on flood plains stopping it from periodically flooding which is needed for fish as they use the flood plain as a spawning ground Soils benefit from flooding Removing coastal wetlands eliminates shock absorber for hazards Human activity causes drought deforestation, overgrazing, using all water up from wells and river for irrigation AFRICA Droughts are not well reported like storms but kill thousands Droughts and famine accounted for 42% of disaster related deaths between 1991 and 2000.

Building on dangerous places Building dams/levees can cause drought/increasing floods CHINA flooding in 1998 caused more than 4000 deaths, effected 223,000,000 people Inundated 61,000,000 acres of crop land and cost well over 36 billion. Led to logging and agriculture 85% loss of forest left places bare Trees didnt intercept water Heavy rains Flood plain built on Reduced capacity of Yangtze water shed to absorb rain. Greatly increased speed and severity of remaining run off US Pacific northwest 94% of landslides due to clear cuts and logging roads Indonesia 1997-1998 burnt forest size of south Korea to grow palm oil Effecting 70mill people from smoke and haze Economic damage to area 9.3bill Schools/airports shut down Crops burnt by fires Dams/reservoirs dramatically increase flooding by increased rate of flow Bangladesh summer 1998, 2/3 country inundated for a month 1300 people dead, 31mill left homeless 10mill miles of road damaged Heavy rain fall and heavily logged areas Ran off from extensive development upstream

El Nino
El Nino conditions tend to be the opposite of normal in the Pacific. El Nio appears, usually every 37 years. An El Nio is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean, in the region around the equator. You can see its effects in both the ocean and atmosphere, generally in Northern Hemisphere winter. Typically, the ocean surface warms up by a few degrees Celsius. At the same time, the place where hefty thunderstorms occur on the equator moves eastward. Although those might seem like small differences, it nevertheless can have big effects on the world's climate.

Why does it occur?

El Nio events are associated with an increased probability of drier conditions. El Nio occurs due to interactions between the surface layers of the tropical pacific ocean and the atmosphere that lies above it The strengths of the prevailing winds over the equatorial Pacific, commonly known as the South East Trades depends upon the difference in surface atmospheric pressure between: The subtropical high pressure region in the eastern Pacific -where cool, dry air converges and subsides; and The low-pressure region over Indonesia-where warm air rises producing cumulonimbus clouds and heavy rain-fall.

Effects of El Nino
As well as drier conditions in SE Asia and Australasia and wetter conditions on the west coast of South America, El Nino has other, global effects: It causes severe droughts in the Sahel, southern Africa and the Indian subcontinent. It causes extremely cold winters in central North America. It causes stormy conditions with floods in California. It causes exceptionally wet, mild, windy winters in the UK and NW Europe. It is believed to suppress the hurricane season in the Caribbean.

Case study: Peru

As well as drier conditions in SE Asia and Australasia and wetter conditions on the west coast of South America, El Nino has other, global effects: It causes severe droughts in the Sahel, southern Africa and the Indian subcontinent. It causes extremely cold winters in central North America. It causes stormy conditions with floods in California. It causes exceptionally wet, mild, windy winters in the UK and NW Europe. It is believed to suppress the hurricane season in the Caribbean.

La Nina
Cooling of surface water in the west of the Pacific Ocean and conditions are above the normal level and is the opposite of El Nino. In El Nino the sea water would move to the right but, with La Nina the waters move to the left towards Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. The Pacific Ocean temperature drops by 3-5oC below the normal temperature and the central, eastern part of the Pacific cools down. Happens by the convection currents moving in the opposite direction warmer water being pushed to the west more clouds are formed over Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand as the low pressure causes the air to rise and condense, increasing the rainfall over these regions.

Why does it occur?

La Nia impacts on the world's weather are less predictable than the effects that occur from El Nio. The La Nia storm track is weaker and loopy and irregular, like a piece of wet and wiggly spaghetti More changeable so the behaviour and direction of the storms it carries are more difficult to accurately forecast The causes of this kind of severe natural phenomenon are hidden in the major fluctuations of temperature in the surface of waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina occurs when the difference between atmospheric pressures in South America and Indonesia increases to a certain level. La Nia usually occurs just after an El Nino has occurred Due to the change of the air pressures, trade winds are produced. These strong trade winds (blow the hot water from the surface of the oceans to the Southeast Asia. Then the inner cold water that is there in the depth of the ocean comes upward. The temperature of this water surface is much cooler than the normal temperature of the ocean.

Weather Cycles - La Nia are responsible for weather extremes in various parts of the world that are typically opposite to those associated with El Nio. La Nia features unusually cold weather in the Northwest and (to a lesser extent) northern California, the northern Intermountain West, and the north-central states. Farther south, higher than normal temperatures are slightly favoured in a broad area covering the southern Rockies and Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the MidAtlantic States. La Nia's cooler temperatures also affect Canada from British Columbia's west coast, through the Prairie Provinces and into Ontario. Southern BC receives more snow than average; much of southern Canada will receive higher precipitation of all types. Fishing is also affected: Sockeye salmon will travel through the Strait of Juan de Fuca thanks to the preferred lower temperatures. This allows American fishing vessels to share the catch. Drought in East Africa Also Due to La Nia. Globally, La Nia is characterized by wetter than normal conditions west of the equatorial central Pacific

Case Study: California

The state is located on the boundary of two of the Earths largest tectonic plates the North American and pacific plate. Each year 50mm of movement occurs at the boundary of the 2 plates. Major earthquakes occur once every 10 years The San Andreas Fault is a major fracture of the Earths crust. The fault traverses the length of the whole state. Many cities in California densely populated including LA & San Francisco

Water shortage is common in large areas of California. Due to earthquake risk, the state is also at risk from tsunamis. Intense winter rain storms can cause flash floods in LA Local wind Santa Ana spreads bush fires

3 or 4 earthquakes a year cause moderate damage.

Brush wood becomes highly flammable every autumn when hot and dry.

Population of 33.8mill Hundreds of fault lines run through California

California exposed to risk of volcanoes

California experiences between 100 and 150 earthquakes large enough to be felt by humans each year. In the last 25 years, more than 100 Californians have lost their lives to landslides which are triggered by intense rainfall. Estimated that in past 1000 years there have been 12 volcanic eruptions in the area The likelihood of a volcanic eruption occurring in any given year is less than 1%. California, hill region covered in sandy soil. Subsidence: when ground slips due to drilling down for oil along the coast. Ground sinks into the sea causing rising sea level

Case Study: Philippines

Philippines are regularly exposed to tropical cyclones in average 19-21 times each year. Flooding is a problem related to cyclones Region is exposed to the El Nio oscillation brings drought to the area. La Nina brings flooding to area. Heavy rainstorms increase the risk of landslides in mountainous areas.

In 1991, Mt Pinatubos eruption caused large pyroclastic flows and widespread lahars and caused 1000s of people to evacuate. The Philippines experience considerable seismic events Cyclone activity exposes islands to strong winds and rain

In 2006, one landslide killed 1150 people

Faces the pacific ocean which is the most prone to tsunamis in the world

Philippines sits across a major plate boundary

91 million people call the Philippines home.

GDP in 2006 was US $5000 Per capita The Philippines has a number of large volcanoes The Philippines have experience a number of very intense earthquakes in recent years In 2003, 200 people were killed in landslides. In 2006 a local earthquake triggered a 3m high tsunami. Humans have caused deforestation of many mountain forests

Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect and the enhanced greenhouse effect are below.

Geological time is split into smaller periods The quaternary is the name given to the past 2.6million years It is then split into Pleistocene and Holocene the Holocene is past 10,000 years Geographical time is measured as BP (Before present) This is the number of years before 1953

Glacial period of widespread glaciation (cold period) Interglacial warmer period with reduced or no ice cover

Measuring evidence of climate change

Ice cores long term
Found in Greenland and Antarctic Can go back as far as 890,000 years BP Frozen record of past climate ice contains air bubbles of carbon dioxide and oxygen isotopes

Positives: The sequences of sea level change links very closely with oxygen and carbon dioxide Can trace changes in temperature and atmospheric gases over a very long stretch of time

Negatives: Very expensive to extract and analyse Only found in cold places

Pollen analysis long term

Pollen is produced by all plants and was extracted from sediment cores in peat bogs and lake beds Pollen grains are preserved in water logged sediments By analysing pollen we can see how ecosystems have changed in response to climate change

Positives: Cheaper than ice cores Available more widely Anywhere in world

Negatives Accurate pollen reconstructions rely on good preservation of pollen Long pollen sequences are rare Vegetation change may lag behind climate change Relies on habitat of modern pollen sets plants may have evolved over time

Dendrochronology medium term

Trees are sensitive to changes in temperature, sunlight and precipitation In warm years trees have wide rings In cold years trees have thin rings Record go back 10,000 years

Positives: A good source of temperature data Better in places with old trees

Negative: Tree records only give localized records Deforestation means tree data has been lost

Paintings and written accounts medium term

Positives: Paintings are dated Can give idea of changes often used to consider what the little ice age was like

Negative Unreliable these sources did not set out to record climate change and must be used with care They are usually local Difficult to generalized Anyone could have painted or written them

Glacier retreat medium term

Glaciers change in response to climate Look at old photos/maps/paintings to measure direct differences in glacial position

Positives: Reliable good records stretch back to around 1880, before this the record is patchy

Negatives Glaciers may be reacting to internal mechanisms completely unrelated to climate change.

Temperature records Short term

Measured since late 1800s

Positives: Accurate measure of temperature

Negatives: Many measuring devices have been moved over their life span, often from towns to rural areas causing an artificial temperature change.

Reasons for distributions of:

Found along pate boundaries and fault lines e.g. San Andreas Fault When 2 plates are moving either towards each other or along aside each other the plates cause friction which builds up pressure and then slips to release energy causing an earthquake. Earthquakes not tend to found along constructive margins shown by lack of earthquakes in Iceland which sits on the North Atlantic ridge.

Tropical storms:
Form between tropics e.g. North Atlantic, Indian ocean and West Pacific This is because when warm damp air rises, it condenses forming clouds which go on to form the hurricane. Depending on direction of prevailing winds, these storms then travel towards the coast

Found in cold mountainous regions where it snows Snow falls due to cold air rising over mountains, condensing and hen forming precipitation The snow builds up and when it becomes unstable an avalanche occurs

Found along plate boundaries e.g. Japan, Philippines, Italy Along destructive boundaries composite volcanoes are found This is because oceanic plate is forced under the continental plate causing oceanic plate to melt This causes an increase in pressure which will eventually explode to the surface as a volcano. Along constructive plate boundaries (North Atlantic Ridge) the plates are moving apart. As this happens, magma rises to the surface, but not under pressure causing a shield volcano

Localised to areas where there is little rainfall This is due to anticyclonic conditions, where air is falling causing high pressure The air is dry because it is falling so it is unable to collect any moisture Anticyclones are stable weather conditions which means they stay in a place for considerable periods of time.

Natural VS. Anthropogenic Causes

1. Natural: Variations in the Earths Orbit
Milankovitch cycles
A Serbian physicist working at the beginning of the 20th century. He identified 3 variations in the Earths orbit around the Sun

Earths Orbit: Every 100 000 years the Earths orbit changes from spherical to elliptical, changing solar input

Tilt of the earth: The Earths axis is tilted at 23.5o, this changes over a 41 000 year cycle between 22o & 24.5o, affecting solar input, especially in higher latitudes.

Wobbly axis: The Earths axis wobbles, so which way the hemispheres are facing to the sun when closest to the sun varies over 21 000 years. Affecting solar input.

Many scientists argue that the Milankovitch cycle may have been just enough to trigger a major global climate change, but that climate feedback mechanisms are needed to sustain it -Feedback effects are those that can amplify a change and make it bigger (positive) or smaller (negative). An e.g. of positive feedback is snow and ice cover. Small increase in snow and ice raises surface albedo reflecting more solar energy back into space. Resulting in further cooling An e.g. of negative feedback is cloud cover. As CC occurs, more evaporation occurs increasing cloud cover, which in turn may reflect more solar rays back into space diminishing effects of the warming.

2. Natural: Variations in solar Input

The suns output is not constant it also varies. A variety of cycles have been detected, most are short term, the most obvious is due to sun Spot activity 11yrs The effect of sunspots is to blast more solar radiation towards the earth Some scientists have suggested that around 20% of 20th Century warming may be because of solar output variation.

3. Natural: Volcanoes
Major eruptions eject material into stratosphere. The sulphur dioxide forms a haze of sulphate aerosols This reduces the amount of sunlight received at Earths surface The eruption of Tambora led to the year without a summer in 1816 as global temperatures dipped by 0.4-0.7 degrees C

Anthropogenic: 1. Carbon dioxide 2. Methane 3. Nitrous oxide


Strategies to reduce climate change:

Adaptation suggests that nations will need to make changes in order to protect their populations, infrastructure and ultimately their standard of living. Already occurring at many levels They dont solve the problem! They do nothing to prevent the problem. Adaptation manages the impacts Pros Save money by letting people save fossil fuels People live as they do normally Live with consequences of climate change Cons Doesnt help to solve the problem Not sustainable Harming future generations.

Effects Migration Hard engineering Barriers to sea levels rise to prevent flooding Storing food for extreme weather

Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere While the climate system would still be changing for a number of decades into the future (a legacy of past emissions), the risk of compounding these changes would be significantly reduced. A complete cut in emissions is unlikely but there are ways of limiting emissions Pros Reducing problem solving it Sustainable Save money on having to adapt Cons Could be expensive Could take longer to effect/make a change Everyone needs to take part

Effects Renewable energy Solar panels Grow trees forestation/reforestation


Local scale: Birmingham

Aims to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2010 and 60% by 2050 Ensure regulatory building standards are met by 2015 Ensure all home have an energy rating by 2015 Reduce co2 emissions from domestic housing New developments to have at least 10% energy sourced from onside renewable sources Wind turbines Solar water heaters Eco homes

Integrated waste segregation facilities Domestic and small businesses have renewable energy grants scheme Targets ensure that 15% of all energy use in Birmingham is from renewable sources 30% domestic water recycled by 2010 An increase in co2 road transport should be kept to less than the increase in road traffic

National Scale: UK
Cutting emissions Emissions have already fallen 21% below 1990 levels nearly double what was promised at Kyoto In the UK alone, low carbon and environmental goods and services are already worth more than $100billion each year and the sector employs 80,000 people Government has put in place the worlds first ever legally binding target to cut emissions at least 80% by 2050 and a set of 5-year carbon budgets to keep the UK on track. By 2020 emissions will be 18% below 2008 levels Emissions falling faster than before fallen 1% a year since 1990 and will now fall 1.4% a year. All UK government departments been allocated their own carbon budget Produce around 30% of our electricity from renewable by 2020 by substantially increasing the requirements for electricity suppliers to sell renewable electricity Facilitate building of new nuclear power stations Making homes greener by channelling 3.2billion to help households become more energy efficient Rolling out smart meters in every home by 2020 Introducing clean energy cash back schemes so people and businesses will be paid if they use low carbon sources to generate heat/electricity

International Scale: THE WORLD Kyoto Protocol

What is it? The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.

Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."

Why was it created? The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The reason for the lengthy time span between the terms of agreement being settled upon and the protocol being engaged was due to terms of Kyoto requiring at least 55 parties to ratify the agreement and for the total of those parties emissions to be at least 55% of global production of greenhouse gases. Every year we are releasing almost 7 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere carbon that had lain buried since the days of the dinosaurs. Remain in the atmosphere for around a century, raising the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and trapping more of the sun's heat. Before the industrial age, the CO2 level was steady at around 280 parts per million. When the Kyoto protocol was drawn up in 1997, the CO2 level had reached at 368 ppm. In 2004, it hit 379 ppm.

Figures released by the UN last month suggest the world is on track to meet its Kyoto targets for greenhouse gases. Countries in Kyoto Protocol have committed to cut emissions of not only carbon dioxide, but of also other greenhouse gases, being:

Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) Countries involved

India and China, which have ratified the Kyoto protocol, are not obligated to reduce greenhouse gas production at the moment as they are developing countries.

Impacts: Among industrialised nations, 16 are on target to meet their Kyoto obligations, including France, the UK, Greece and Hungary, the UN said. Some 20 countries are off-course, including Canada, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and Spain. Nations that miss their Kyoto target in 2012 will incur a penalty of an additional third added to whatever cut they agree under a new treaty in Copenhagen. Has Kyoto worked? "In terms of emission reductions achieved, the answer would be no," De Boer said. "A 5% cut is a pretty small step on what will be a long and arduous journey.

International scale: Copenhagen Accord

When: Who: Reached between the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, contains no reference to a legally binding agreement, as some developing countries and climate activists wanted. 2009, and aims to reduce carbon emissions by 2015 and 2020

What: The Accord: Developed countries must make commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and developing countries must report their plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions to the UN by 31 January 2010 Endorses the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol. Underlines that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and emphasises a "strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" To prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, recognizes "the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius", in a context of sustainable development, to combat climate change. Recognizes "the critical impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects" and stresses "the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support" Recognizes that "deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science" (IPCC AR4) and agrees cooperation in peaking (stopping from rising) global and national greenhouse gas emissions "as soon as possible" and that "a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development" The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.

Recognizes "the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests", and the need to establish a mechanism (including REDD-plus) to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries to help achieve this. Establishes a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, as an operating entity of the financial mechanism, "to support projects, programme, policies and other activities in developing countries related to mitigation

How: Reducing carbon emissions - Countries representing over 80% of global emissions have engaged with the Copenhagen Accord. A selection of reduction targets is shown below. All are for the year 2020. Japan: 25% Russia: 15% - 25% Ukraine: 20%

Compared to 1990: EU: 20% - 30% Responses by countries: -

The G77 said that the Accord will only secure the economic security of a few nations Australia was happy overall but "wanted more". India was "pleased" The United States said that the agreement would need to be built on in the future and that "We've come a long way but we have much further to go." United Kingdom said "We have made a start" but that the agreement needed to become legally binding quickly. People's Republic of China's delegation said that "The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy. Brazil's climate change ambassador called the agreement "disappointing". Bolivian president, Evo Morales said that, "The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US.

Criticism: The BBC immediately reported that the status and legal implications of the Copenhagen Accord were unclear. The accord itself is not legally binding No decision was taken on whether to agree a legally binding successor or complement to the Kyoto Protocol. The accord sets no real targets to achieve in emissions reductions. The accord was drafted by only five countries The deadline for assessment of the accord was drafted as 6 years, by 2015. The mobilisation of 100 billion dollars per year to developing countries will not be fully in place until 2020 There is no guarantee or information on where the climate funds will come from. There is no agreement on how much individual countries would contribute to or benefit from any funds. COP delegates only "took note" of the Accord rather than adopting it.

The head of the G77 has said it will only secure the economic security of a few nations. It shows biases in silent ways such as the promotion of incentives on low gas-emitting countries.

Success: Tony Tujan of the IBON Foundation suggests the failure of Copenhagen may prove useful, if it allows us to unravel some of the underlying misconceptions and work towards a new, more holistic view of things The Copenhagen Accord, for the first time, unites the US, China and other major developing countries in an effort to curb global greenhouse gas emissions. The accord also says developed countries will aim to mobilise $100bn per year by 2020, to address the needs of developing countries. In some parts of the world this is already having impacts - and a Copenhagen deal could not stop those impacts, although it could provide funding to help deal with some of the consequences.

Key players in the Copenhagen agreement: Key player: someone who has power and influence over a situation The key players include US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa. These are the countries that drafted the accord and include some of the countries with most the carbon emissions such as US and China.

Strategies to combat global warming

Plant a tree:
Trees serve as excellent carbon sinks by removing co2 from the atmosphere Unfortunately anthropogenic causes have removed many of worlds forests. Technological changes means forests are cut down faster Deforestation no only diminishes the capabilities of this global carbon sink by the destruction of each individual tree also releases co2 that it stores back into the atmosphere Planting more trees excellent example of costs and benefits associated with trying to reduce the impact of global warming Other land uses must make way for the return of forested areas. Cost of this will be felt in terms of losses in production, jobs and national incomes Few politicians or governments in the world who could advocate such change and expect to be re-elected

Innovative strategies:
End our dependence on fossil fuels Short term aim to use fossil fuels more efficiently Some fossil fuels are clean and should be used more often Transport converted to operate on natural gas which are better for environment

Alternatives to coal and oil

Range of alternatives e.g. biomass fuel which originates from biological sources Biomass fuels must be burned in order to release energy but they are a cleaner source of energy Less greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy is produced. Examples include: fuel wood, ethanol and biodiesel, alcohol fermented from sugar, oil from soybeans Since plants are a major carbon sink, its vital than any use of plants as biomass fuel is accompanies by large scale replanting

Carbon capture:
Greenhouse gases can be caught before they are released into the atmosphere Carbon capture then stored safely in a designated carbon sink where it is sealed off and unable to enter the atmosphere

Reducing our carbon footprint

In homes much can be done to reduce the carbon footprint Governments have developed rating systems to help households choose energy efficient appliances e.g. fridges, and washing machines Simple behavioural changes turn switch off electrical appliances

Alternatives to fossil fuels:

Nuclear power 0 accounts for 7% of worlds energy supplies Not a renewable form of energy production but it produces no greenhouse gases Dangerous highly radioactive waste Also nuclear materials could be used for weapons of mass destruction Site for terrorist activity

Sustainable form of energy production:

Solar, water and wind power generation techniques Climate friendly technologies Capacity to generate millions of joules of energy each year Renewable source of energy Together solar and wind power account for only 2% of the worlds electricity production But have serious flaws preventing them from becoming primary source of energy production Solar power difficult to generate in areas that have less sunshine hours/experience long winters Wind power is dependent on prevailing conditions within the environment Hydroelectric power is criticized due to environmental impacts associated with building dams Cost of switching over to sustainable forms is a major factor preventing widespread use Need a system that will benefit environment AND national economies Governments not inclined to move towards technologies that reduce national income Less developed nations have less flexibility to achieve this Biggest barriers are high cost compared to existing fossil fuels

Role of market forces

Price of climate friendly technology will fall once demand increases For this to occur, marketplace needs assistance from governments Market forces will contribute to the uptake of clean technologies within a nation A carbon market exists within the international community as well Carbon market refers to the idea that emissions of co2 can be regulated globally and that emissions trading can take place between nations

Transition to clean sources create range of jobs in diverse areas of new industries By 2050, products that relate to low carbon energy market expected to have a global value of $500billion

Impacts of climate change in:

Scientists so far expected sea levels to rise by 9cms -88cms this century depending on how much greenhouse gases we emit and how the earth responds. The behaviour of large ice sheets is difficult to predict. Social / Environmental impacts: Rise of a metre or more would be very bad news for major coastal cities causing people to migrate Increased risk of devastating storm surges causing damage to homes/buildings Rising sea levels on the Thames Estuary where 1.25million people currently live and 1.5mill people commute Even a small increase lead to flooding Insurance cover may be withdrawn

Economic Impacts: Weighed up the impact on rising sea level on the Thames estuary where assets are worth 100 billion New developments planned for London are in or bordering the tidal flood risk zone As insurance cover may be withdrawn, it could lead to the collapse of the property market Businesses and finance area in Canary Wharf would be very vulnerable to increasing flood risk Solutions: There is a current effort to upgrade Londons defences by 2030 in the Environment agencies Thames project 2100. Aims to project the capital for the rest of this century New study raises the risk and reinforced the need to upgrade defences in the Thames.

Vast use of the island has led to an environmental catastrophe Sea level rise by 0.9cm a year 80% of islands in Maldives are no more than a metre over sea level, within 100 years Maldives would become inhabitable. Countrys 360,000 citizens forced to migrate 60% of population volunteered to evacuate in next 15 years First country to sign up to the Kyoto protocol The capital city is surrounded by a 3m high wall which took 14 years to construct at a cost of 63million dollars Maldives economy is weak and cannot pay this amount which was accepted aid from japan Japan paid 99% of cost No sustainable as not long term Wall only covers and protects 200 inhabited islands against tidal surges Tidal surges flood homes every fortnight Government encourages forestation to prevent beach erosion Coral reef natural barrier against tidal surges

New York
In 2007, IPCC said by 2100 sea levels would rise by 1ft and new York would be effected If Greenland ice sheets melt, new York wont have a large rise in sea level If Antarcticas ice sheet was to melt new York would have a large rise in sea level This is because the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets pull sea water towards the two countries. When sheets melt, water is pushed away from countries so sea level drops New York will be 20% more affected by sea level ruse than elsewhere.

If climate changes push sea levels high, people in coastal low lying areas such as Bangladesh could be forced from their homes. In the last century world heated up by 0.6 degrees, Sea level rose from 9 to 20 cm and is predicted to increase to 88cm by 2100 Bangladesh is situated in the low lying Ganges river delta and is one of the most densely populated countries on the earth Char Bangla is one of thousand islands located around the river delta People living here are most vulnerable Rivers are expected to flood, destroying surrounding areas Villagers have built up platforms of mud for their huts to try and keep them out of the water.