Refined Projections for both U series unemployment and for (Total Nonfarm Employees,

referred to as TNF in my analysis), the jobs number reported when you hear X number
of jobs were lost). Depression is indeed baked into the cake! When you look at this,
remember that this scenario is based on bernanke’s recent comments that the economy
should turn around in the summer, and also that they march and April 09 numbers used
for my projections are preliminary numbers and tend to be revised upwards, which would
only make things look worse.

I took the Total Non Farm Employee data ( the number you hear when job loss numbers
are announced) and charted out the last several recession (Figure A). I then created a
scenario where the economy begins to turn around in August, meaning that job losses
slow and begin to recede. I assumed that the period of time it took to fall is
approximately how long it will take to return to positive growth based on most recessions
being somewhat symmetric (data in Figure B). I then plotted a few other charts. The rate
of job loss for each recession (Figure C), Total Non Farm Employees (Figure D), and I
then converted the TNF data to U3/U6 using the method I described in the last projection
paper I sent you. (Figure E).

Note: the blue shaded regions are previous recessions

SA = Seasonally Adjusted
NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted
TNF = Total Non Farm Employees
Figure A
TNF SA (thousands of employees)
150,000

140,000

130,000

120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
 Figure B

Recession Comparison Employment #'s (TNF, NSA) U Series Conversion

U3 (w/ U3 U6 U6
1974 1981 1991 2001 2008 Δ %Δ 0.04%) (w/ 0.06%) (w/ 0.04%) (w/ 0.06%)
1 -0.5% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% May-08 138190 647 -0.1%
2 -1.1% -0.6% -0.6% -0.1% -0.2% Jun-08 138451 261 -0.2%
3 -1.8% -0.6% -1.0% -0.4% -0.2% Jul-08 137050 -1401 -0.2%
4 -2.2% -0.9% -1.2% -0.7% -0.4% Aug-08 137002 -48 -0.4%
5 -2.4% -1.3% -1.4% -1.1% -0.7% Sep-08 137119 117 -0.7%
6 -2.4% -1.3% -1.5% -1.4% -0.9% Oct-08 137492 373 -0.9%
7 -2.6% -1.8% -1.4% -1.4% -1.6% Nov-08 136882 -610 -1.6%
8 -2.4% -2.2% -1.2% -1.5% -2.1% Dec-08 135917 -965 -2.1%
9 -1.9% -2.4% -1.1% -1.5% -2.6% Jan-09 132302 -3615 -2.6%
10 -1.7% -2.5% -1.0% -1.4% -3.1% Feb-09 132138 -164 -3.1%
11 -1.4% -2.7% -0.9% -1.3% -3.6% Mar-09 132054 -84 -3.6% Mar-09 8.5% 8.5% 15.6% 15.60%
12 -0.8% -2.6% -0.8% -1.3% -3.8% Apr-09 132295 241 -3.8% Apr-09 8.9% 8.9% 15.8% 15.80%
13 -2.4% -0.7% -1.3% -3.7% May-09 127400 -4895 -3.7% May-09 10.0% 10.6% 17.76% 18.74%
14 -1.8% -0.4% -1.2% -3.6% Jun-09 122814 -4586 -3.6% Jun-09 11.1% 12.1% 19.59% 21.49%
15 -1.9% -0.2% -1.0% -3.8% Jul-09 118128 -4686 -3.8% Jul-09 12.1% 13.7% 21.47% 24.30%
16 -1.5% -0.6% -3.8% Aug-09 113620 -4507 -3.8% Aug-09 13.1% 15.3% 23.27% 27.00%
17 -0.9% -0.4% -3.6% Sep-09 109563 -4057 -3.6% Sep-09 14.1% 16.6% 24.89% 29.44%
18 -0.5% -0.4% -3.1% Oct-09 106174 -3389 -3.1% Oct-09 14.8% 17.8% 26.25% 31.47%
19 -0.3% -2.6% Nov-09 103409 -2765 -2.6% Nov-09 15.5% 18.7% 27.35% 33.13%
20 -0.3% -2.1% Dec-09 101206 -2203 -2.1% Dec-09 16.0% 19.5% 28.24% 34.45%
21 -0.4% -1.6% Jan-10 99600 -1607 -1.6% Jan-10 16.3% 20.0% 28.88% 35.42%
22 -0.4% -0.9% Feb-10 98671 -929 -0.9% Feb-10 16.5% 20.3% 29.25% 35.97%
23 -0.4% -0.7% Mar-10 98008 -663 -0.7% Mar-10 16.7% 20.5% 29.51% 36.37%
24 -0.4% -0.4% Apr-10 97662 -346 -0.4% Apr-10 16.8% 20.7% 29.65% 36.58%
25 -0.3% -0.4% May-10 97317 -345 -0.4% May-10 16.8% 20.8% 29.79% 36.79%
26 -0.3% -0.3% Jun-10 97010 -307 -0.3% Jun-10 16.9% 20.9% 29.91% 36.97%
27 -0.2% -0.3% Jul-10 96704 -306 -0.3% Jul-10 17.0% 21.0% 30.04% 37.15%
28 -0.1% -0.2% Aug-10 96478 -225 -0.2% Aug-10 17.0% 21.1% 30.13% 37.29%
29 -0.1% -0.1% Sep-10 96418 -61 -0.1% Sep-10 17.0% 21.1% 30.15% 37.33%
 Figure C
Depth of Recession
Months
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
0%

-1%

-2% 1974
1981
1991
-3% 2001
2008
2008 Projection
-4%

Figure D
TNF SA (thousands of employees)
150,000

140,000 NSA TNF Employment

130,000 NSA TNF Employment

Projection
120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
 Figure E
U Series Projections

40%
U3 (SA) Low Projection
35%
U3 (SA) High Projection
30% U6 (SA) Low Projection
U6 (SA)
25%
U6 (SA) High Projection
20% U3 (SA)

15%

10%

5%

0%
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Figure F
U Series Proections
40%
U6 (SA) Low Projection
35%
U6 (SA)
30% U6 (SA) High Projection

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10