CMNSEM 1107 13 Estimating Global Diffuse Solar Radiation Sunshine Duration

Canadian Journal on Computing in Mathematics, Natural Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Vol. 2 No.
9, December 2011

237

Estimating Global and Diffuse Solar Radiation from Sunshine Duration at Qena/
Egypt
S.M. El Shazly , A. A. Hassan, Kh. O. Kassem
*
, M. E. Adam and Z.M. Ahmed
Physics Dept., Faculty of Science at Qena, South Valley University, Qena, Egypt

Abstract
The clearness index (K
t
) and diffuse fraction (K
D
) at Qena / Upper Egypt have
been expressed in terms of the sunshine fraction (n/N) with the aim of using them to
estimate the values of global (G) and diffuse (D) solar radiation in the study region. A
variety of regression forms, namely linear, exponential, power, second and third order
polynomial has been applied in this process. The significance and performance of these
regression forms have been evaluated with the aid of several procedures of statistical
analysis. In view of this analysis it has been found that all of them can reasonably be used
to represent the effect of (n/N) on both (K
t
) and (K
D
). In this paper the simple linear
forms are applied to estimate both (G) and (D), since the other forms of the regressions
do not improve the accuracy of the estimation. Comparison between measured and
estimated values of (G) and (D) are performed. The accuracy of estimation of these
components is tested by calculating the mean bias error (MBE), absolute bias errors
(MAE), root mean square errors (RMSE), model efficiency (ME), modeling index (d)
and t-statistic test. The obtained values of these parameters indicate the performance and
validity of the suggested empirical models in estimating (G) and (D). Few estimates is
found to fall beyond 10% accuracy level.

Key words: Global solar radiation - Diffuse solar radiation - Sunshine fraction Daily
values Monthly averages statistical analysis
____________________________________________________________
* Corresponding author:
E-mail: khphysics@yahoo.com
Introduction
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238

The interest in the applications of solar energy has increased largely in the last
years owing to the expected demands in energy resulting from the increase in the world
population. This demand can not be met from traditional sources of energy, which will be
depleted by the year 2050 (El sayigh, 1992). Renewable energy must and can meet this
challenge. Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable sources. It is
environmentally kindly, plentiful and easy to utilize. For optimal exploitation of the solar
energy, a detailed and accurate knowledge of the solar radiation data at a location is
necessary for engineering design of collectors and storage systems and evaluation of its
efficiency. In the other hand, at any location on the earth's surface, the solar radiation is
also a function of various atmospheric variables such as: the nature and extent of cloud
cover, the aerosol and water vapor contents of the atmosphere --- etc. Therefore solar
radiation data can also enable the scientist to study the atmospheric and environmental
properties that attenuate them and affect its amount received at the ground. Review
through a lot numbers of references (e.g. Benghanem and Joraid, 2007; Zekai, 2007;
Almorox and Hontoria, 2004; Tarhan and Sari, 2005; Ahmed and Ulfat, 2004) has shown
that the "best" measurements to be used in the above utilities of solar energy are those
measured at the location of interest. However, these in-situ measurements, including
global solar radiation and its direct and diffuse components, are not always available in
all locations. Accordingly, development of calculation procedures has been prompted to
provide estimates for places where measurements are not made and places where there
are gaps in the measurement record. This paper aims mainly to calculate the global (G)
and diffuse (D) solar radiation components at Qena, Upper Egypt, a city of abundant
solar radiation, at which data are not always available. These calculations were made for
the first time at Qena, since the solar radiation observations were not feasible at this city
before the establishment of the meteorological station at the south valley university in 1 /
4 / 2000 . The calculation process has carried out using different correlations between
the sunshine fraction (n/N) with each of the clearness index k
t
(G/G
0
) and the diffuse
fraction k
d
(D/G), where G
0
is the daily extraterrestrial solar radiation. Daily values as
well as monthly averages of these components have been calculated. These types of
results are needed to satisfy the requirements of the solar energy utilities in the study
region either for engineers or for scientists. Some of these utilities, at least in this time,
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239

are using this energy as a source of thermal energy, that can be used in homes and water
heating projects as well studying the atmospheric contaminants in view of the attenuation
caused by it in the incoming solar radiation before it reaches the earth's surface. These
data may be used to some extend in the adjoining locations of similar atmospheric
characteristics.

2. Data and methodology
Daily data of global (G) and diffuse (D) solar radiation components as well as the
sunshine duration (n) were obtained from Egypt meteorological department in south
valley university station at Qena /upper Egypt ( 26

17N, 32 43E, Height 78 asl) in the
period from 2001 to 2004. Global solar radiation is measured by "first class' precise
spectral pyranometer, Eppley No. 163171S (WMO 1996) with errors around 3-4%.
Diffuse solar radiation is measured by shading the direct beam from similar pyranometer
using anodized aluminum shadow band. The sunshine duration is measured using
Campbellstokes sunshine recorder (burn method) with uncertainty 0.1 h and a
resolution of 0.1 h. The extraterrestrial possible solar radiation G
0
and the day length N
are calculated using standard procedure (Duffi and Beckman, 1991, 1994; El-shazly,
1994; and Aljamal, 1987).The following essentials regression forms are used in fitting the
measured data:
Y = a + bx (1)
Y = a +bx + cx
2
(2)
Y = a +bx + cx
2
+ dx
3
(3)
Y = a

x
b
(4)
Y = a e
bX
(5),
where a, b, c and d are regression coefficients. They were determined by regression
analysis using the well known least mean square method and they depend on the location.
In the above equations the terms Y represent K
t
and

k
d;
while the x terms are the sunshine
fraction (n/N).The obtained correlations are then used to estimate the three solar radiation
components G and D in the study region. Different performance measures are used to
ensure the accuracy of estimation of these components such as the mean bias error
(MBE), absolute bias errors (MAE), root mean square errors (RMSE), model efficiency
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240

(ME), modeling index (d) and t-statistic test. The following formulae are used to
calculate these errors

=
m c
Y Y
n
MBE
1
(6)
( )
=
m c
Y Y
n
MAE
1
(7)
( )
5 . 0
2
1
|
\
|
=
m c
Y Y
n
RMSE (8)

( )
( )
(
(
2
2
1
m m
c m
Y Y
Y Y
ME (9)

( )
( )
(
(
(

2
2
1
m c m m
c m
Y Y Y Y
Y Y
d (10)

( )
5 . 0
2 2
2
1
(
=
MBE RMSE
MBE n
t (11)
In all the above statistical tests of accuracy, except ME and d, the smaller value,
the better is the model performance, while values of ME and d closer to 1 indicate the
superior model performance (Willmott, 1982; Mayer and Butler, 1993; Stone, 1993;
Torul et al, 2000; Torul, 1998). For any equation estimates to be significant, the t-
values produced by eq. (11) must be smaller than the values for that confidence level in
standard statistical tables.

3. Results and discussion
3.1 Correlation between clearness index (K
t
) and sunshine fraction (n/N)
Figs. 1 and 2 show the percentage of the frequency distribution of daily K
t
and
(n/N) through the study period (2001-2004). It is clear that more than 98 % of K
t
values
are > 0.5 and more than 89 % of (n/N) lies in the range > 0.7. This reflects the abundance
of solar energy and semi cloudless weather characterizing the study region through the
year months and consequently the importance of using it in solar energy projects.
Relation between the daily values of K
t
and (n/N) is presented in Fig. 3. This relation has
9, December 2011

241

been described and analyzed quantitatively using the above given equations 1-5. The
obtained values of the regression constants a, b, c and d as well as the results of the
statistical analysis of these equations are summarized in Table 1. According to this table,
the high values of the correlation coefficients and F- value (compared to its critical value
given in this table) illustrate that all these formulae can compute the daily global solar
radiation (G
d
) with a good accuracy. Also the T-ratio for each coefficient has values
greater than zero, reflecting the significance of their great contribution and high certainty
to the fitting process.
In view of the above statistical analysis, the following simple linear correlation:
K
t
= 0.33 + 038 (n/N) (12),
is used in our calculation process to calculate the daily and monthly averages of global
solar radiation at Qena in the study period (2001 -2004).

3.1.1 Daily global solar radiation (G
d
)
3.1.1.1 Model performance
Fig. 4 represents a regression form for the variation of both the daily measured (G
dm
)

and calculated (G
dc
) values of global solar radiation in this period. All data are used in
this figure. In spite of the apparent small deviations between the measured and calculated
values of G
d
in some months in spring and summer seasons, the suggested model (eq.12)
can estimate G
d
with a very good accuracy. The high effect of atmospheric constituents in
these months such as aerosols, clouds etc. may be the reason for these deviations (El-
Shazly, 1989). Fig.5
a, b
represents the percentages of the relative deviation and its
frequency distribution of calculated global solar radiation (G
dc
)

from measured ones
(G
dm
) at Qena through the study period. From this fig., about 68% and 94% of the relative
deviation percentage of the results lie in the ranges < 5% and < 10%, respectively.
To confirm the performance of eq. (12) in estimating the daily global solar
radiation G
d
, some statistical analysis has been done. The result is summarized in Table
2. It is evident in this table that, the percentages of MBE, RMSE, and MAE are in the
acceptable range with respect to the mean value of G
d,
while the values of ME and d are
closed to unity. Also t- value is less than its critical one (2.57). Accordingly, one can
conclude that this equation can estimate the daily global solar radiation with a high
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242

accuracy and indicates the model performance.
3.1.1.2 Model validation
To test the validity of the proposed equation, it was used to calculate G
d
for new
measurements of sunshine fraction at Qena during the period from May 2005

to April
2006. Fig. 6 shows the relation between their calculated and measured values in this
period. A very good correlation between both of them (r = 0.99) is clear in this figure.
The statistical analysis of the results is shown in Fig.7a, b and Table 2. The figure and the
table give an evidence for using the proposed equation in calculating G
d
, where 73% of
the results have relative deviation percentage < 5% and 96% of them lie in the range
<10%. Also all the statistical parameters lie in the desirable ranges.
3.1.2 Monthly averages of global solar radiation (
m
G )
The relation between the calculated (
mc
G ), using eq.12, and the measured (
mm
G )
values of monthly averages of global solar radiation is shown in Fig. 8. The figure
illustrates that both (
mc
G ) and (
mm
G ) vary with the same manner and are good correlated
to each other (r =0.99). However there is a small deviation observed between (
mc
G ) and
(
mm
G ) in March and April as well as in November and December. This may be mainly
due to the high content of aerosol particles in the atmosphere in these months, since the
main attenuation parameters pollutants in the study region are the aerosol dust particles
dispersed from the surrounding east and West Mountains as well as man activities (El-
Shazly, 1989).
As shown in Fig. 9
,
which shows the percentage of the relative deviations of its
calculated values (
mc
G ) from the measured ones (
mm
G ), 100% of the results lie in the
range < 5%. These results demonstrate the very high precision of the developed
equation for calculating (
m
G ) in the study region.
Similar to what we have done in the previous sections, statistical analysis of the
results has been carried out. The values of all the considered parameters in Table 2
confirm the appropriate of equation 12 for calculating the monthly average of global solar
radiation.
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243

3.2 Correlation between the diffuse fraction (K
D
) and sunshine fraction (n/N)
In this section the same techniques as in sec 3.1 was applied to study the correlation
between K
D
and n/N. Fig. 10 shows the percentage of the frequency distribution of K
D
through the study period. The figure indicates that 95.67% of the results have the values
<0.5; 2.77% lie in the range 0.50.7 and 1.56% was >0.7.These results support the above
mentioned conclusion in sec. 3.1 related to the semi cloudless weather in the study region
(Adam and El-Shazly, 2007; EL- Nouby 2006, and EL-Shazly et al., 1997).
Fig. 11 represents the relation between the daily values of the diffuse fraction
(K
D
) and sunshine fraction (n/N) in the study area through the study period (2001-2004).
This figure clearly indicates that the values of K
D
decrease with increasing (n/N). Least
mean square method is used to analyze this relation in view of the above suggested
formulae 1-5. The resultant values of the different regression and statistical parameters
are summarized in Table (3). Similar to what done in section 3.1.1, all of these formulae
may estimate the diffuse solar radiation with a high accuracy. In this work the following
linear one is used to calculate the daily values and monthly averages of diffuse solar
radiation at Qena.
( ) ( ) 13 .... .......... .......... .......... .......... 079 . 1 / 945 . 0 + = N n K
D

3.2.1 Daily diffuse solar radiation (D
d
)
3.2.1.1 Model performance
The relation between the calculated (D
dc
)and the measured (D
dm
)values of daily
diffuse solar radiation using this equation are represented in Fig. 12 for all daily data (D
d
)
through the study period. This figure indicates the high correlation between the two
parameters.
To verify whether the obtained relationship (eq.13) allows a reliable estimate of
daily diffuse solar radiation D
d
, the percentage of the frequency distribution of the
relative deviation (RD) of its calculated values (D
dc
) from the measured ones (D
dm
)
through the study period is computed as shown in Fig. 13. According to this figure one
can conclude that 40.29% of the results lie in the range < 10%; 74.11% lie in the range
< 20% and 25.9% only have relative deviation > 20%. These results demonstrate an
acceptable accuracy of the calculation.
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244

Statistical analysis of the calculated daily diffuse solar radiation (D
dc
) during the whole
period (2001-2004) is summarized in Table 4. According to the values of the different
parameters given in this table one can conclude that this equation can estimate the daily
diffuse solar radiation with a good accuracy.
3.2.1.2 Model validation
Measured data of available sunshine fraction during new periods at Qena (Jan.
2006 Apr. 2006; May 2000 Aug. 2000 and Sep. 2005Dec. 2005) which are not used
in the fitting process, are introduced in equation 13 to calculate the corresponding values
of daily diffuse solar radiation. The calculated values (D
dc
) were compared with the
corresponding measured ones (D
dm
) during the mentioned periods as shown in Fig. 14. It
can be observed from this figure that there is a strong correlation between the calculated
and measured values of D
d
(0.87). The percentage of the frequency distribution of
relative deviation of its calculated values from the measured ones is also computed as
indicated in Fig. 15. It is clear that the used equation provide best estimates for D
d
where
27.40% of the results lie in the range < 5%; 44.18% lie in the range < 10%; 37.67% lie
in the range (10%) (20%) and only 18.15% of the results have relative deviation >
20%.
Statistical analysis has been done with the aim of supporting the validity of the used
model in calculating daily diffuse solar radiation D
d
in the new period (Jan. 2006 Apr.
2006; May 2000 Aug. 2000 and Sep. 2005Dec. 2005). The results are summarized in
Table 4. These results indicate that equation 13 is eligible to calculate the diffuse solar
radiation in the study region with high accuracy.
3.2.2 Monthly averages of diffuse solar radiation (
m
D )
The relation between the calculated (
mc
D ), using equation 13, and the measured
(
mm
D ) values of monthly averages of diffuse solar radiation through the study period is
shown in Fig. 16 . It is clear from this figure that both parameters change in a similar
pattern through the months of the year with a high degree of correlation (corr. = 0.97). As
shown in Fig. 17, the percentage of the frequency distribution of the relative deviation of
calculated monthly averages of diffuse solar radiation from the experimental ones in the
9, December 2011

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study period indicates that 50% of the results lie in the range < 5%; 91.67% lie in the
range < 10%; while 8.33% only lie in the range > 10%. Also Table 4 summarizes the
statistical study of the calculation process. In view of the above discussions in the
previous sections, equation (13) proofs its validity in calculating (
m
D ) with a high
accuracy.
4. Comparison of the constants of the linear regression forms at different locations
in Egypt
Comparison of the linear regression constants of equations (12) and (13) with that
estimated at different locations in Egypt (El-sebaii and Trabea, 2003, 2005) is given in
Table (5). It is obvious from this table that both the constants (a) and (b) change from
location to another, especially with respect to K
D
correlations. This is due to the different
geographic and climatic conditions as well as the nature and the concentration of the
atmospheric constituents (e.g. aerosols and water vapor) characterizing these locations.
Near values of (a) and (b) are found at Qena and Aswan (288 Km south of Qena) owing
to their quasi similar climatic conditions.
5. Conclusions
On the light of the preceding results, the following conclusions can be deducted:
1. The necessity of using solar radiation as an alternative source of energy at
Qena/Egypt to help in solving the problem of energy demand, since this region is
characterized with abundant solar radiation and semi cloudless weather. On the
average more than 98% of the values of K
t
> 0.5 and more than 89% of the
sunshine periods can extend to > 70% of the maximum possible bright hours.
2. Several equations of different types (1-5) have been developed and performed for
use in estimating (G) and (D) at the study region. All of them can be used with a
good accuracy in the estimation process. The simple first order relations (12) and
(13) are proposed for estimating both of them in this work.
3. The proposed equations are found to be valid to estimate (G) and (D) in the study
region with high accuracy. Few estimates are found to fall beyond accuracy level
10%. They can also be used to some extend in the adjoining locations of
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246

similar atmospheric characteristics. This conclusion is somewhat different with
respect to (D), because it depends largely on the impact of atmospheric
constituents (e.g. aerosols and water vapor) on the solar radiation incident on the
Earth's surface, which varies from region to region according to their nature of
man- and industrial activities.

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Table 1 Calculated regression constants of equations 1-5 and its statistical analysis, with
respect to K
t
, in the period (2001-2004) in the study region
Statistical parameters
Models
Linear
Sec.
order
Third
order
Power Exponential
Correlation 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.79
F- statistics 1054.4 532.31 364.27 1133.6 1323.1
F critical 254.31 19.496 8.526 254.31 254.31
parameters
a 0.33 0.29 0.37 0.7 0.36
b 0.38 0.513 -0.09 0.34 0.69
c - -0.1 1.03 - -
d - - -0.61 - -
St.
Deviation
a 0.011 0.02 0.03 0.002 0.006
b 0.012 0.059 0.178 0.01 0.019
c - 0.042 0.318 - -
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249

d - - 0.171 - -
T- ratio
a 31.1 14.52 12.55 376.9 58.83
b 32.47 8.698 0.51 33.67 36.37
c - 2.25 3.25 - -
d - - 3.58 - -

Table 2 Statistical analysis of calculated global solar radiation (G
c
) during different
periods
Daily values
(2001-2004)
Daily values ( May
2005 Apr 2006)
Monthly averages
(2001-2004)
MBE% -0.476 2.39 -0.0749
RMSE% 5.809 4.794 2.799
MAE% 4.687 3.83 2.407
ME
0.963 0.966 0.986
D 0.985 0.992 0.996
t- test (critical value) 2.358 (2.57) 9.824 (12.706) 0.088 (2.57)

Table 3 Calculated regression constants of equations 1-5 and its statistical analysis, with
respect to K
D
, in the period (2001-2004) in the study region
Models
Linear Quadratic Cubic Power Exponential
Correlation 0.92 0.67 0.71 0.68 0.82
F- statistics 4464.12 2550.45 1699 638.96 1598.03
F critical 254.31 19.496 8.526 254.31 254.31
parameters
a 1.08 0.19 0.11 0.18 2.46
b - 0.95 1.62 3.86 - 1.12 - 2.74
c - - 1.73 - 6.99 - -
d - - 3.16 - -
St.
Deviation
a 0.013 0.022 0.033 0.002 0.153
b 0.014 0.067 0.202 0.044 0.069
c - 0.049 0.363 - -
d - - 0.196 - -
T- ratio
a 84.14 8.74 3.37 84.52 16.08
b 66.81 24.30 19.11 25.23 39.97
c - 35.52 19.26 - -
d - - 16.14 - -

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250

Table 4 Statistical analysis of calculated daily diffuse solar radiation (D
c
) during different
periods
Statistical
parameters
Daily values
(2001-2004)
Daily values (Jan. 2006 Apr.
2006, May 2000 Aug. 2000 and
Sep. 2005Dec. 2005)
Monthly averages
(2001-2004)
MBE% 1.04 0.68 -2.03
RMSE% 18.85 16.53 6.94
MAE% 14.52 12.57 5.59
ME 0.88 0.84 0.93
d 0.94 0.93 0.98
t- statistics(critical
value) 1.53(1.65) 0.705(1.65) 1.02(1.79)

Table 5 Comparison of constants of the linear regression equations (12&13) at
different locations in Egypt
Locations Type of
correlation
Correlation
coefficients
Regression constants
a b
Rafah (31

13

N, 34

12

E, 73 m)
K
t
& (n/N) 0.965 0.367 0.342
K
D
& (n/N) 0.67 0.730 -0.433
AL Arish (31

07

N,

33

45
E, 32 m)
K
t
& (n/N) 0.970 0.295 0.423
K
D
& (n/N) 0.78 0.941 -0.683
Matruh (31
21
N, K
t
& (n/N) 0.973 0.508 0.186
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251

27

13
E, 38 m) K
D
& (n/N) 0.85 0.618 -0.335
Tanta (30
47

N, 31

E, 8 m)
K
t
& (n/N) 0.960 0.247 0.489
K
D
& (n/N) - - -
Aswan (23
58
N,
32
47
E, 191.7 m)
K
t
& (n/N) 0.950 0.334 0.389
K
D
& (n/N) 0.78 0.886 -0.618
Qena (26
10
N, 32

43

E,78 m)
K
t
& (n/N) 0.99 0.330 0381
K
D
& (n/N) 0.97 1.08 -0.95

Fig. 1 Percentage of the frequency distribution of daily clearness index K
t

at Qena through the study period (2001-2004).

1.18%
95.04%
3.78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

c
l
e
a
r
n
e
s
s

i
n
d
e
x

(
%
)

< 0.5 0.5 ? 0.7 > 0.7
clearness index (Kt)

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252

Fig. 2 Percentage of the frequency distribution of daily sunshine fraction
(n/N) at Qena through the study period (2001-2004).

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
sunshine fraction (n/N)
c
l
e
a
r
n
e
s
s

i
n
d
e
x

(
K
t
)

Fig. 3 Relationship between the daily values of clearness index
(K
t
) and sunshine fraction (n/N) at Qena through the
study period (2001-2004).
1.72%
8.33%
89.94%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

s
u
n
s
h
i
n
e

f
r
a
c
t
i
o
n
(
%
)

< 0.5 0.5 ? 0.7 > 0.7
sunshine fraction (n/N)
9, December 2011

253

Figure 4 Variation of the daily measured (G
dm
) and calculated (G
dc
) global solar
radiation values through the study period at Qena /Egypt
Julian day
D
a
i
l
y

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
G
d
)

i
n

W
h
/
m
2

0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
winter spring summer
Autumn
(G
dc
)

(G
d m
)
9, December 2011

254

-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Julian day
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
e
v
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
R
.
D
.
)
%

68.17%
26.25%
5.35%
0.24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

i
n

P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

(
%
)
0 (5) (5) (10) (10) (20) > 20
Relative deviation (R.D.) (%)
N= 561
N= 216
N= 44
N= 2

Figure 5: Percentages of the relative deviation (a) and its frequency distribution
(b) of calculated daily global solar radiation (G
dc
)

from measured ones
(G
dm
) at Qena through the study period

( b )
( a )
9, December 2011

255

0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
measured daily global solar radiation (Gdm) in Wh/m
2
.day
C
a
l
c
u
l
a
t
e
d

d
a
i
l
y

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
G
d
c
)

i
n

W
h
/
m
2
.
d
a
y

Figure 6 Relation between the daily values of the measured (G
dm
) and the calculated
(G
dc
) global solar radiation values through the period (May 2005 April 2006)
at Qena /Egypt.

9, December 2011

256

Figure 7 Percentages of the relative deviation (a) and its frequency distribution
(b) of calculated daily global solar radiation (G
dc
)

from measured ones
(G
dm
) at Qena through the period (May 2005 Apr 2006)

73.04%
22.87%
3.41%
0.68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

i
n

P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

(
%
)

0 ? (5) (5) ? (10) (10) ? (15) (15) ? (20)
Relative deviation (R.D.) (%)
N= 214
N= 67
N= 10
N 2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Julian day
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
e
v
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
R
.
D
.
)
%

9, December 2011

257

0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
m
o
n
t
h
l
y

a
v
e
r
a
g
e

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
G
m
)

i
n

W
h
/
m
2

G
mc
G
mm --------

Fig. 8 Relation between the measured (G
mm
) and calculated (G
mc
) values of
monthly average of global solar radiation through the study period (2001-

2004) at Qena /Egypt.

-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
months
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
e
v
i
a
t
i
o
n

%

Figure 9 Percentage of the relative deviation of calculated monthly average of
global solar radiation from experimental ones through the study period
at Qena / Egypt..
9, December 2011

258

95.67%
2.77%
1.56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

d
i
f
f
u
s
e

f
r
a
c
t
i
o
n
(
%
)
< 0.5 0.5 0.7 > 0.7
Diffuse fraction (K
D
)
N= 1106
N= 32
N= 18

Figure 10: Percentage of the frequency distribution of the diffuse fraction (K
D
) at
Qena through the study period (2001- 2004).

Figure 11: Relation between the daily values of diffuse fraction (K
D
) and
sunshine fraction (n/N) at Qena through the study period (2001-2004).
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Sunshine fraction (n/N)
D
i
f
f
u
s
e

f
r
a
c
t
i
o
n

(
K

D )
9, December 2011

259

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Measured daily diffuse solar radiation Ddm in Wh/m
2
.day
C
a
l
c
u
l
a
t
e
d

d
a
i
l
y

d
i
f
f
u
s
e

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

D
d
c

i
n

W
h
/
m
2
.
d
a
y

Figure 12 Relation between daily values of the measured (D
dm
) and calculated (D
dc
)
diffuse solar radiation through the study period (2001-2004) at Qena / Egypt.

40.29%
33.82%
17.97%
6.74%
1.19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

i
n

P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

(
%
)
0 (10) (10) (20) (20) (30) (30) (40) > 40
Relative deviation (R.D.)%
N= 305
N= 136
N= 51
N= 9
N= 256

Figure 13 Percentage of the frequency distribution of relative deviation of daily
calculated values (D
dc
) of diffuse solar radiation from measured ones
(D
dm
) at Qena through the study period (2001-2004).

9, December 2011

260

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
measured diffuse solar radiation (D
dm
) in Wh/m
2
.day
c
a
l
c
u
l
a
t
e
d

d
i
f
f
u
s
e

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
D
d
c
)

i
n

W
h
/
m
2
.
d
a
y

Figure 14: Relation between daily values of the measured (D
dm
) and calculated
(D
dc
) diffuse olar radiation through the periods (Jan. 2006 Apr.
2006, May 2000 Aug 2000 and Sep 2005Dec. 2005) at Qena /Egypt.
27.40%
44.18%
37.67%
18.15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

i
n

p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

(
%
)
0 (5) < (10) (10) (20) > 20
Relative deviation (RD) %
N= 129
N=53
N= 110
N= 80

Figure 15 Percentage of the frequency distribution of relative deviation of daily
calculated values (D
dc
) of diffuse solar radiation from measured ones
(D
dm)
at Qena through the periods (Jan. 2006 Apr. 2006, May 2000
Aug. 2000 and Sep. 2005Dec. 2005) at Qena /Egypt.
9, December 2011

261

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
M
o
n
t
h
l
y

a
v
e
r
a
g
e

d
i
f
f
u
s
e

s
o
l
a
r

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

(
D
m
)

i
n

W
h
/
m
2

Figure 16 Relation between the values of the measured (D
mm
) and calculated
(D
mc
) monthly average of the diffuse solar radiation through the
study period (2001- 2004) at Qena /Egypt.

50.00%
91.67%
8.33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

i
n

p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

(
%
)
0 (5) < (10) >(10)
Relative deviation (R.D.)%
N= 6
N= 11
N= 1

Figure 17 Percentage of frequency distribution of relative deviation of calculated
(D
mc
) monthly average diffuse solar radiation from measured ones at
Qena through the study period (2001- 2004).

CMNSEM 1107 13 Estimating Global Diffuse Solar Radiation Sunshine Duration

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CMNSEM 1107 13 Estimating Global Diffuse Solar Radiation Sunshine Duration

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Canadian Journal on Computing in Mathematics, Natural Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Vol. 2 No.

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