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Special 10-year
anniversary issue
20012011
Number 40,
Summer 2011
McKInsey on Inunce
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McKinsey on Finance is a quarterly
publication written by experts and
practitioners in McKinsey & Companys
corporate nance practice. This
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on Finance editorial board who have
contributed to many of the articles
included in this anniversary edition. They
include James Ahn, Richard Dobbs,
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The enduring value of fundamentals
McKInsey on Inunce
Special 10-year
anniversary issue
20012011
Number 40,
Summer 2011
z
WIen we pubIIsIed LIe InuuguruI Issue oI
McKinse on Iincnce, In LIe summer oI zoo1,
COs were IucIng LIe cIuIIenges oI nuvIguL-
Ing u gIobuI economy recoverIng Irom u downLurn
und bruIsed by corporuLe mIsbeIuvIor durIng
LIe doL-com murkeL crusI. TIe ouLIook Ior growLI,
vuIuuLIon, und hnuncIuI reguIuLIon wus
uncerLuIn uL besL.
TIe pIIIosopIy oI LIe new pubIIcuLIon`s
edILorIuI bourd wus LIuL compunIes couId besL
Improve LIeIr perIormunce In LIe Iuce oI
LIese uncerLuInLIes by druwIng on LIe esLubIIsIed
prIncIpIes oI hnunce. AILer u decude murked
by boLI crIsIs und proIound cIunges In gIobuI
hnuncIuI murkeLs, LIuL remuIns our upproucI.
I u sIngIe LIeme Ius run LIrougI LIe puges oI
McKinse on Iincnce over LIe pusL Len yeurs, IL
Ius been LIe ImporLunce oI cIuIIengIng LIe
muny und recurrIng IncompIeLe, mIsIeudIng, und
IuddIsI InLerpreLuLIons oI hnunce. We Iuve
udvunced InLerpreLuLIons oI vuIue creuLIon LIuL
respecL LIe Iong-Lerm eIIecLIveness oI cupILuI
murkeLs-und ure cuuLIous ubouL mIsLukIng sIorL-
Lerm noIse Ior IndIcuLIons oI Iong-Lerm vuIue
creuLIon. Our uuLIors Iuve uIso sougIL Lo provIde
specIhc LooIs Lo IeIp hnunce Ieuders run LIeIr
vurIed IuncLIons more eIIecLIveIy und eIhcIenLIy,
und LIus Lo Inuence LIe dIrecLIon oI
LIeIr compunIes.
or LIIs specIuI unnIversury unLIoIogy, we`ve
compIIed u seIecLIon oI urLIcIes und excerpLs Irom
LIe pusL decude LIuL we beIIeve remuIn useIuI
Ior drIvIng perIormunce even Loduy.
Editors note
UnIorLunuLeIy,
LIe cIemIcuI IndusLry`s IIsLorIcuI puLLern Ius
been LIuL uII pIuyers InvesL uL LIe sume
LIme, wIIcI Ieuds Lo excess cupucILy wIen uII oI
TIe Lrude-oII u compuny mukes beLween
hnuncIuI exIbIIILy und hscuI dIscIpIIne Is LIe mosL
ImporLunL consIderuLIon In deLermInIng
ILs cupILuI sLrucLure.
1q
LIe pIunLs come on IIne sImuILuneousIy. Over
LIe cycIe, u compuny couId eurn subsLunLIuIIy
more LIun ILs compeLILors II IL deveIoped
u counLercycIIcuI sLruLegIc cupILuI sLrucLure und
muInLuIned Iess debL LIun mIgIL oLIerwIse
be opLImuI. DurIng bud LImes, IL wouId LIen Iuve
LIe ubIIILy Lo muke InvesLmenLs wIen ILs
compeLILors couIdn`L.
A practical framework for developing
capital structure
A compuny cun`L deveIop ILs cupILuI sLrucLure
wILIouL undersLundIng ILs IuLure revenues und
InvesLmenL requIremenLs. Once LIose pre-
requIsILes ure In pIuce, IL cun begIn Lo consIder
cIungIng ILs cupILuI sLrucLure In wuys LIuL supporL
LIe brouder sLruLegy. A sysLemuLIc upproucI cun
puII LogeLIer sLeps LIuL muny compunIes uIreudy
Luke, uIong wILI some more noveI ones.
TIe cuse oI one gIobuI consumer producL busIness
Is IIIusLruLIve. GrowLI uL LIIs compuny-we`II
cuII IL Consumerco-Ius been modesL. ExcIudIng
LIe eIIecL oI ucquIsILIons und currency move-
menLs, ILs revenues Iuve grown by ubouL percenL
u yeur over LIe pusL hve yeurs. AcquIsILIons
udded u IurLIer ; percenL unnuuIIy, und LIe operuL-
Ing prohL murgIn Ius been sLubIe uL uround
1q percenL. TrudILIonuIIy, Consumerco IeId IILLIe
debL: unLII zoo1, ILs debL Lo enLerprIse vuIue
wus Iess LIun 1o percenL. n recenL yeurs, Iowever,
LIe compuny Increused ILs debL IeveIs Lo
uround z percenL oI ILs LoLuI enLerprIse vuIue In
order Lo puy Ior ucquIsILIons. Once LIey were
compIeLe, munugemenL Iud Lo decIde wIeLIer Lo
use LIe compuny`s cusI ows, over LIe nexL
severuI yeurs, Lo resLore ILs prevIous Iow IeveIs
oI debL or Lo reLurn cusI Lo ILs sIureIoIders
und IoId debL sLubIe uL LIe IIgIer IeveI. TIe com-
puny`s decIsIon-mukIng process IncIuded
LIe IoIIowIng sLeps.
1. Estimate the financing deficit or surplus. IrsL,
Consumerco`s execuLIves IorecusL LIe hnuncIng
dehcIL or surpIus Irom ILs operuLIons und
sLruLegIc InvesLmenLs over LIe course oI LIe
IndusLry`s busIness cycIe-In LIIs cuse,
LIree Lo hve yeurs.
Finance and strategy
zo McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
n LIe buse cuse IorecusLs, Consumerco`s execu-
LIves projecLed orgunIc revenue growLI oI
percenL uL prohL murgIns oI uround 1q percenL.
TIey dId noL pIun Ior uny ucquIsILIons over
LIe nexL Iour yeurs, sInce no Iurge LurgeL compu-
nIes remuIn In Consumerco`s reIevunL producL
segmenLs. As ExIIbIL z sIows, LIe compuny`s
cusI ow uILer dIvIdends und InLeresL
wIII be posILIve In zoo6 und LIen grow sLeudIIy
unLII zoo8. You cun see on LIe rIgIL-Iund
sIde oI ExIIbIL z LIuL EBTA (eurnIngs beIore
InLeresL, Luxes, und umorLIzuLIon) InLeresL
Exhibit 2
Disguised global consumer product company
Consumerco started by forecasting its nancing debt or surplus.
McKinsey on Finance
Capital structure
Exhibit 2 of 3
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
Interest coverage ratio (EBITA
1
annual
interest expense)
Free cash ow (FCF),
billion
2000 2002 2004 2006
2
2008
2
2000 2002 2004 2006
2
2008
2
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Projected 2008 EBITA,
1
billion
Target interest coverage ratio
Target 2008 interest expense, billion
2008 debt at target coverage, billion
Extra cushion, billion
Base case
scenario
3
Downside
scenario
3
1.9
4.5x
0.4
8.3
0.5
1.4
4.5x
0.3
6.2
Interest rate on debt 5% 5%
0.5
Target 2008 debt level, billion 7.8 5.7
FCF
FCF after dividends,
interest
1
EurnIngs beIore InLeresL, Luxes, und umorLIzuLIon.
z
ProjecLed.
Assumes orgunIc revenue growLI oI % uL proIIL murgIns oI uround % und no ucquIsILIons over nexL yeurs.
Source: AnuIysLs` reporLs; SLundurd & Poor`s; McKInsey unuIysIs
z1
coveruge wIII quIckIy reLurn Lo IIsLorIcuIIy
IIgI IeveIs-even exceedIng Len LImes
InLeresL expenses.
2. Set a target credit rating. NexL, Consumerco
seL u LurgeL credIL ruLIng und esLImuLed
LIe correspondIng cupILuI sLrucLure ruLIos.
Consumerco`s operuLIng perIormunce Is
normuIIy sLubIe. ExecuLIves LurgeLed LIe IIgI
end oI u BBB credIL ruLIng becuuse LIe
compuny, us un exporLer, Is perIodIcuIIy
exposed Lo sIgnIhcunL currency rIsk (oLIerwIse
LIey mIgIL Iuve gone IurLIer, Lo u Iow BBB
ruLIng). TIey LIen LrunsIuLed LIe LurgeL credIL
ruLIng Lo u LurgeL InLeresL coveruge ruLIo
(EBTA Lo InLeresL expense) oI q.. EmpIrIcuI
unuIysIs sIows LIuL credIL ruLIngs cun be
modeIed weII wILI LIree IucLors: IndusLry, sIze,
und InLeresL coveruge. By unuIyzIng oLIer
Iurge consumer producL compunIes, IL Is
possIbIe Lo esLImuLe LIe IIkeIy credIL ruLIng uL
dIIIerenL IeveIs oI coveruge.
3. Develop a target debt level over the business
cycle. InuIIy, execuLIves seL u LurgeL debL IeveI
oI C.; bIIIIon Ior zoo8. or LIe buse cuse
scenurIo In LIe IeIL-Iund coIumn uL LIe boLLom
IuII oI ExIIbIL z, LIey projecLed C1.q bIIIIon
oI EBTA In zoo8. TIe LurgeL coveruge ruLIo oI
q. resuILs In u debL IeveI oI C8. bIIIIon.
A hnuncIng cusIIon oI spure debL cupucILy Ior
conLIngencIes und unIoreseen evenLs
udds Co. bIIIIon, Ior u LurgeL zoo8 debL IeveI
oI C;.8 bIIIIon.
ExecuLIves LIen LesLed LIIs IorecusL uguInsL
u downsIde scenurIo, In wIIcI EBTA wouId
reucI onIy C1.q bIIIIon In zoo8. oIIowIng
LIe sume IogIc, LIey urrIved uL u LurgeL debL
IeveI oI C.; bIIIIon In order Lo muInLuIn
un InvesLmenL-grude ruLIng under LIe down-
sIde scenurIo.
n LIe exumpIe oI Consumerco, execuLIves used
u sImpIe downsIde scenurIo reIuLIve Lo LIe
buse cuse Lo udjusL Ior LIe uncerLuInLy oI IuLure
cusI ows. A more sopIIsLIcuLed upproucI
mIgIL be useIuI In some IndusLrIes sucI us com-
modILIes, wIere IuLure cusI ows couId be
modeIed usIng sLocIusLIc-sImuIuLIon LecInIques
Lo esLImuLe LIe probubIIILy oI hnuncIuI dIsLress
uL vurIous debL IeveIs.
TIe hnuI sLep In LIIs upproucI Is Lo deLermIne
Iow LIe compuny sIouId move Lo LIe
LurgeL cupILuI sLrucLure. TIIs LrunsILIon InvoIves
decIdIng on LIe upproprIuLe mIx oI new
borrowIng, debL repuymenL, dIvIdends, sIure
repurcIuses, und sIure Issuunces over
LIe ensuIng yeurs.
A compuny wILI u surpIus oI Iunds, sucI us
Consumerco, wouId reLurn cusI Lo sIureIoIders
eILIer us dIvIdends or sIure repurcIuses.
Even In LIe downsIde scenurIo, Consumerco wIII
generuLe C1.; bIIIIon oI cusI ubove ILs LurgeL
EBTA-Lo-InLeresL-expense ruLIo.
or one upproucI Lo dIsLrIbuLIng LIose Iunds Lo
sIureIoIders, consIder LIe dIvIdend poIIcy oI
Consumerco. GIven ILs modesL growLI und sLrong
cusI ow, ILs dIvIdend puyouL ruLIo Is currenLIy
Iow. TIe compuny couId eusIIy ruIse LIuL ruLIo Lo
q percenL oI eurnIngs, Irom o percenL.
ncreusIng LIe reguIur dIvIdend sends LIe sLock
murkeL u sLrong sIgnuI LIuL Consumerco
LIInks IL cun puy LIe IIgIer dIvIdend comIorLubIy.
TIe remuInIng C1. bIIIIon wouId LIen
LypIcuIIy be reLurned Lo sIureIoIders LIrougI
sIure repurcIuses over LIe nexL severuI
yeurs. Becuuse oI IIquIdILy Issues In LIe sLock
murkeL, Consumerco mIgIL be ubIe Lo
repurcIuse onIy ubouL C1 bIIIIon, buL IL couId
consIder IssuIng u one-LIme dIvIdend Ior
LIe remuInder.
Finance and strategy
zz McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
TIe sIgnuIIng eIIecL
6
Is probubIy LIe mosL
ImporLunL consIderuLIon In decIdIng beLween
dIvIdends und sIure repurcIuses. CompunIes
sIouId uIso consIder dIIIerences In LIe LuxuLIon
oI dIvIdends und sIure buybucks, us weII us
LIe IucL LIuL sIureIoIders Iuve LIe opLIon oI noL
purLIcIpuLIng In u repurcIuse, sInce LIe cusI
LIey receIve musL be reInvesLed.
WIIIe LIese Lux und sIgnuIIng eIIecLs ure reuI, LIey
muInIy uIIecL LucLIcuI cIoIces ubouL Iow Lo
move Lowurd u dehned Iong-Lerm LurgeL cupILuI
sLrucLure, wIIcI sIouId uILImuLeIy supporL
u compuny`s busIness sLruLegIes by buIuncIng LIe
exIbIIILy oI Iower debL wILI LIe dIscIpIIne
(und Lux suvIngs) oI IIgIer debL.
1
runco ModIgIIunI und MerLon MIIIer, TIe cosL oI cupILuI,
corporuLe hnunce, und LIe LIeory oI InvesLmenL,
Americcn Economic Retieu, June 1q8, VoIume q8, Number ,
pp. z61-q;.
z
TIere Is uIso some poLenLIuI Ior Loo IILLIe debL, LIougI LIe
consequences uren`L us dIre.
RIcIurd Dobbs und Werner ReIm, TIe vuIue oI sIure
buybucks, McKinse on Iincnce, Number 16, Summer zoo,
pp. 16-zo.
q
AL exLremeIy Iow IeveIs oI debL, compunIes cun creuLe greuLer
vuIue by IncreusIng debL Lo more LypIcuI IeveIs.
TIomus AuguL, ErIc BurLeIs, und IorIun Budde, MuILIpIe
cIoIce Ior LIe cIemIcuI IndusLry, mckInseyquurLerIy.com,
AugusL zoo.
6
TIe murkeL`s percepLIon LIuL u buybuck sIows Iow
conhdenL munugemenL Is LIuL LIe compuny`s sIures ure
undervuIued, Ior exumpIe, or LIuL IL doesn`L need
LIe cusI Lo cover IuLure commILmenLs, sucI us InLeresL
puymenLs und cupILuI expendILures.
z
The share price increase from a buyback in theory results purely from the tax benets of a companys
new capital structure rather than from any underlying operational improvement. Take, for example, a
company with 200 million in excess cash, a 3 percent interest rate, a 30 percent tax rate, and a discount
rate at the cost of equity (10 percent). Assuming that the amount of cash doesnt grow and that it is
held in perpetuity, the company incurs a value penalty of 18 million from additional taxes on the income
of its cash reserves. A buyback removes this tax penalty and so results in a 1.4 percent rise in the
share price. In this case, repurchasing more than 13 percent of the shares results in an increase of less
than 2 percent. A similar boost occurs when a company takes on more debt to buy back shares.
Yet while such increases in earnings per share help managers hit EPS-based compensation targets,
boosting EPS in this way doesnt signify an increase in underlying performance or value. Moreover, a
companys xation on buybacks might come at the cost of investments in its long-term health.
Share buyback analysis (including tax), hypothetical example
Analyzing the value of a share buyback (including tax)
McKinsey on Finance 16
Share buyback
Exhibit 2 of 4
1
PosLLux EBT - operuLIng cupILuI.
Balance sheet
Cash, million
Before After
Operating assets, million
Total assets, million
Equity, million
200 0
580 580
780 580
780 580
Value
Value of operations, million
Cash, million
Tax penalty of cash, million
1,300 1,300
200 0
18 0
Total equity value, million 1,482 1,300
Income statement
Before After
Interest, million
Earnings before taxes,
million
Tax, million
134 134
6 0
140 134
42 40
Net income, million 98 94
Shares outstanding, million 100 86.5
Share price,
Earnings per share (EPS),
P/E
14.80 15.00
0.98 1.09
15.1 13.8
Return on invested
capital (ROIC)
1
16% 16%
Earnings before interest,
taxes (EBIT), million
Excerpt from
The value of share buybacks
Number 16,
Summer 2005
Richard Dobbs and Werner Rehm
Finance and strategy
zq McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
In most cases, simple math leaves successful companies with little choice: if they have moderate growth
and high returns on capital, its functionally impossible for them to reinvest every dollar they earn.
Consider this example: a company earning $1 billion a year in after-tax prots, with a 25 percent return
on invested capital (ROIC) and projected revenue growth of 5 percent a year, needs to invest about
$200 million annually to continue growing at the same rate. That leaves $800 million of additional cash
ow available for still more investment or returning to shareholders. Yet nding $800 million of
new value-creating investment opportunities every year is no simple taskin any sector of the economy.
Furthermore, at a 25 percent ROIC, the company would need to increase its revenues by 25 percent
a year to absorb all of its cash ow. It has no choice but to return a substantial amount of cash
to shareholders.
Does it matter whether distributions take the form of dividends or share repurchases? Empirically,
the answer is no. Whichever method is used, earnings multiples are essentially the same for companies
when compared with others that have similar total payouts (Exhibit A). Total returns to shareholders
(TRS) are also the same regardless of the mix of dividends and share repurchases (Exhibit B). These
results should not be surprising. What drives value is the cash ow generated by operations. That
cash ow is in turn driven by the combination of growth and returns on capitalnot the mix of how excess
cash is paid out.
So how should a company decide between repurchases and dividends? That depends on how condent
management is of future cash owsand how much exibility it needs. Share repurchases offer
companies more exibility to hold onto cash for unexpected investment opportunities or shifts in a volatile
economic environment. In contrast, companies that pay dividends enjoy less exibility because
investors have been conditioned to expect cuts in them only in the most dire circumstances. Thus,
managers should employ dividends only when they are certain they can continue to do so. Even
increasing a dividend sends signals to investors that managers are condent that they will be able to
continue paying the new, higher dividend level.
Share repurchases also signal condence but offer more exibility because they dont create
a tacit commitment to additional purchases in future years. As you would expect, changing the proportion
of dividends to share buybacks has no impact on a companys valuation multiples or TRS, regardless
of payout level.
Excerpt from
Paying back your shareholders
Number 39,
Spring 2011
Bin Jiang and Tim Koller
z
Earnings multiples are not affected by the payout mix.
MoF 2011
Payback
Exhibit 3 of 4
Payout mix: average share of dividends
in total payouts, 200207, %
1
nsuIIIcIenL duLu Ior puyouL IeveIs oI q6-1o% uL puyouL mIx oI >6 Lo 1oo% dIvIdends und Ior puyouL IeveIs oI
>1o% Ior uII puyouL mIxes.
z
or z;q nonhnuncIuI compunIes LIuL were In LIe S&P oo uL LIe end oI zooq, were conLInuousIy In operuLIon sInce
1qqq, und puId dIvIdends or repurcIused sIures. EBTA = eurnIngs beIore InLeresL, Luxes, und umorLIzuLIon.
Ratio of median enterprise value to EBITA multiple,
year-end 2007
2
065% 6695% 96130%
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 (100% share repurchases)
>20 to 40%
>40 to 65%
>0 to 20%
>65 to 100%
Level of total payouts: average annual payouts (dividends +
share repurchases) as % of total net income,
1
200207
0 (100% share repurchases)
>20 to 40%
>40 to 65%
>0 to 20%
>65 to 100%
Returns to shareholders are unrelated to the payout mix.
MoF 2011
Payback
Exhibit 4 of 4
Level of total payouts: average annual payouts (dividends +
share repurchases) as % of total net income,
1
200207
1
nsuIIIcIenL duLu Ior puyouL IeveI oI 66-q% uL puyouL mIx oI zero dIvIdends (1oo% sIure repurcIuse).
z
or zq nonhnuncIuI compunIes LIuL were In LIe S&P oo uL LIe end oI zooq, were conLInuousIy In operuLIon sInce
1qqq, und puId dIvIdends or repurcIused sIures. CAGR = compound unnuuI growLI ruLe.
Median total returns to shareholders (TRS),
CAGR, 200207,
2
%
065% 6695% 96130% >130%
0 5 5 10 15 20 25
Payout mix: average share of
dividends in total payouts, 200207, %
Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Finance and strategy
z6
How to grow
z;
TIe IurgesL, mosL successIuI compunIes wouId
seem Lo be IdeuIIy posILIoned Lo creuLe vuIue Ior
LIeIr sIureIoIders LIrougI growLI. AILer uII,
LIey commund IeudIng murkeL und cIunneI posI-
LIons In muILIpIe IndusLrIes und geogrupIIes;
LIey empIoy deep bencIes oI Lop munugemenL
LuIenL uLIIIzIng proven munugemenL processes;
und LIey oILen Iuve IeuILIy buIunce sIeeLs Lo Iund
LIe InvesLmenLs mosL IIkeIy Lo produce growLI.
YeL uILer yeurs oI ImpressIve Lop- und boLLom-IIne
growLI LIuL propeIIed LIem Lo LIe Lop oI LIeIr
murkeLs, LIese compunIes evenLuuIIy hnd LIey cun
no Ionger susLuIn LIeIr puce. ndeed, over LIe
pusL qo yeurs NorLI AmerIcu`s IurgesL compunIes-
LIose, suy, wILI more LIun ubouL $z bIIIIon In
murkeL cupILuIIzuLIon-Iuve consIsLenLIy under-
perIormed LIe S&P oo,
1
wILI onIy Lwo
sIorL-IIved excepLIons.
In this section: Features
27 Why the biggest and best struggle to grow (Winter 2004)
35 Running a winning M&A shop (Spring 2008)
Excerpts from
32 How to choose between growth and ROIC (Autumn 2007)
34 All P/Es are not created equal (Spring 2004)
36 M&A teams: When small is beautiful (Winter 2010)
39 Managing your integration manager (Summer 2003)
41 The five types of successful acquisitions (Summer 2010)
Nicholas F. Lawler, Robert S. McNish, and Jean-Hugues J. Monier
Why the biggest and best
struggle to grow
The largest companies eventually find size itself an impediment to creating new value.
They must recognize that not all forms of growth are equal.
Number 10,
Winter 2004
z8 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
TuIk Lo senIor execuLIves uL LIese orgunIzuLIons,
Iowever, und IL Is dIIhcuIL Lo hnd muny wIIIIng Lo
buck oII Irom umbILIous growLI progrums LIuL
ure LypIcuIIy InLended Lo doubIe LIeIr compuny`s
sIure prIce over LIree Lo hve yeurs. YeL In uII
buL LIe ruresL oI cuses, sucI uggressIve LurgeLs ure
unreusonubIe us u wuy Lo moLIvuLe growLI
progrums LIuL creuLe vuIue Ior sIureIoIders-und
muy even be rIsky, LempLIng execuLIves Lo scuIe
buck vuIue creuLIng orgunIc growLI InILIuLIves LIuL
muy be smuII or Iong-Lerm proposILIons, some-
LImes In Iuvor oI Iurger, neurer-Lerm, buL Iess
reIIubIe ucquIsILIons.
n our experIence, execuLIves wouId be beLLer
oII recognIzIng LIe IImILuLIons oI sIze und
revIsILIng LIe IundumenLuIs oI Iow growLI creuLes
sIureIoIder vuIue. By undersLundIng LIuL
noL uII Lypes oI growLI ure equuI wIen IL comes Lo
creuLIng vuIue Ior sIureIoIders, even LIe
IurgesL compunIes cun uvoId buIkIng up on LIe
busIness equIvuIenL oI empLy cuIorIes und
InsLeud nourIsI LIemseIves on LIe Lypes oI growLI
mosL IIkeIy Lo creuLe sIureIoIder vuIue.
What holds them back?
AL even weII-run bIg compunIes, growLI sIows or
sLops-und Ior compIex reusons. ronIcuIIy,
Ior some IL`s LIe nuLuruI resuIL oI pusL success:
LIeIr porLIoIIos ure weIgIed down by Iurge,
IeudIng busInesses LIuL muy Iuve once deIIvered
consIderubIe growLI, buL LIuL Iuve sInce
muLured wILI LIeIr IndusLrIes und now Iuve Iewer
nuLuruI uvenues Ior growLI. AL oLIers, mun-
ugemenL LuIenL und processes ure more grooved
Lo muInLuIn, noL buIId, busInesses; und LIeIr
equILy- und cusI-rIcI buIunce sIeeLs dumpen
LIe ImpucL growLI Ius on sIureIoIder vuIue.
or uII oI LIem, LIeIr mosL IormIdubIe growLI
cIuIIenge muy be LIeIr sIeer sIze: IL Lukes
Iurge IncremenLs oI vuIue creuLIon Lo Iuve u
meunIngIuI ImpucL on LIeIr sIure prIce.
TIe oLIer crucIuI IucLor Is Iow munugemenL
responds wIen orgunIc growLI sLurLs Lo IuILer.
TIIs Is oILen u IuncLIon oI compensuLIon
LIuL LIes bonuses Lo boLLom-IIne growLI. n uny
cuse, munugemenL Is oILen LempLed Lo
respond us II LIe sIowIng orgunIc growLI were
mereIy Lemporury, rejecLIng uny downwurd
udjusLmenL Lo neur-Lerm boLLom-IIne growLI.
TIuL muy work In LIe sIorL run, buL us IndIvIduuI
busInesses sLrIp ouL conLroIIubIe cosLs, LIey
soon begIn Lo cuL InLo LIe muscIe und bone beIInd
wIuLever vuIue-rIcI orgunIc growLI poLenLIuI
remuIns-suIes und murkeLIng, new-producL
deveIopmenL, new busIness deveIopmenL, R&D.
AL one IndusLrIuI compuny we ure IumIIIur
wILI, munugemenL proudIy poInLs Lo eucI suvIngs
InILIuLIve LIuL uIIows LIem Lo meeL quurLerIy
eurnIngs IorecusLs.
BuL LIe sIorL-Lerm Iocus on meeLIng
unreuIIsLIcuIIy IIgI growLI expecLuLIons cun
undermIne Iong-Lerm growLI. UILImuLeIy,
LIe scrumbIe Lo meeL quurLerIy numbers wIII
conLInue Lo InLensIIy us cosL cuLLIng IurLIer
deceIeruLes orgunIc growLI. I LIe sILuuLIon geLs
more desperuLe, munugemenL muy Lurn Lo
ucquIsILIons Lo keep boLLom-IIne growLI goIng.
BuL ucquIsILIons, on uveruge, creuLe reIuLIveIy
IILLIe vuIue compured Lo LIe InvesLmenL requIred,
wIIIe uddIng enormous InLegruLIon cIuIIenges
und porLIoIIo compIexILy InLo LIe mIx. SLruggIIng
under LIe workIoud, munugemenL cun Iose
Iocus on operuLIons. n LIIs downwurd spIruI
munugemenL cIuses growLI In wuys LIuL
creuLe Iess und Iess vuIue-und In LIe end wInds
up eIIecLIveIy LrudIng vuIue Ior growLI.
Some compunIes seem Lo Iuve recognIzed LIe
dunger In consLunLIy sLrIvIng Lo exceed
expecLuLIons. One compuny`s recenL decIsIon
Lo vesL IuII oI ILs CEO`s sLock uwurd Ior
zq How to grow
sImpIy meeLIng (ruLIer LIun IundIIy beuLIng)
LIe hve-yeur sIure prIce upprecIuLIon oI LIe S&P
oo muy be one sucI bow Lo good reuson.
ronIcuIIy, reIIevIng LIe CEO oI LIe pressure Lo
subsLunLIuIIy ouLperIorm LIe murkeL muy
Iuve gIven IIm LIe Ireedom Ie needs Lo Iocus on
Ionger-Lerm InvesLmenLs In vuIue-creuLIng
orgunIc growLI.
All growth is not created equal
TIe rIgIL wuy Ior Iurge compunIes Lo Iocus on
growLI, we beIIeve, Is Lo dIIIerenLIuLe umong
enLIre cIusses oI growLI on LIe busIs oI wIuL we
cuII LIeIr vuIue creuLIon InLensILy.
z
TIe vuIue
creuLIon InLensILy oI u doIIur oI Lop-IIne growLI
dIrecLIy depends on Iow mucI InvesLed
cupILuI Is requIred Lo IueI LIuL growLI-LIe more
InvesLed cupILuI, LIe Iower LIe vuIue creuLIon
InLensILy. SorLIng growLI InILIuLIves LIIs wuy
requIres undersLundIng LIe LIme Irume In
wIIcI sIureIoIder vuIue cun be creuLed-us sIorL
us u muLLer oI monLIs Ior some ucquIsILIons or
more LIun u decude Ior some R&D InvesLmenLs. L
uIso requIres ussessIng LIe sIze oI un oppor-
LunILy by LIe umounL oI vuIue IL creuLes Ior sIure-
IoIders, noL mereIy Iow mucI Lop-IIne revenues
IL udds. TIese ure LIe purLIcuIurIy crucIuI IucLors
Ior very Iurge compunIes, wIere smuIIer
InvesLmenLs cun geL IosL on LIe munugemenL
ugendu, Iong-Lerm InvesLmenLs IuII Lo
cupLure munugemenL`s ImugInuLIon, und LIe
LempLuLIon Is Lo InvesL In IIgIIy vIsIbIe neur-Lerm
projecLs wILI Iow vuIue creuLIon InLensILy.
To IIIusLruLe, we dIpped InLo M&A reseurcI
Lo see Iow mucI vuIue creuLIon even Lop-noLcI
ucquIrers cun reusonubIy expecL. We Iuve
uIso modeIed LIe vuIue creuLIon InLensILy oI Iour
dIIIerenL modes oI orgunIc growLI, by esLImuLIng
resuILs Ior proLoLypIcuI orgunIc growLI oppor-
LunILIes In LIe consumer goods IndusLry. WIIIe
LIIs specIhc IIerurcIy oI vuIue creuLIon
InLensILy muy noL IoId Ior every IndusLry, IL cun
serve us u useIuI exumpIe.
New product/market development Lends Lo
Iuve LIe IIgIesL vuIue creuLIon InLensILy.
L provIdes Lop-IIne growLI uL uLLrucLIve murgIns,
sInce compeLILIon Is IImILed und LIe murkeL
Is growIng. We esLImuLe LIuL LIe proLoLypIcuI new
producL In LIe consumer goods IndusLry
cun creuLe beLween $1.; und $z.oo In sIure-
IoIder vuIue Ior every doIIur oI new revenue.
ronIcuIIy, wIIIe LIIs Lype oI growLI creuLes LIe
mosL vuIue, IL`s purLIcuIurIy dIIhcuIL Ior
reuIIy Iurge compunIes. CreuLIng new demund
Ior u producL LIuL dId noL prevIousIy exIsL
requIres ouLsLundIng InnovuLIon cupubIIILIes-
und bIg compunIes LIuL Iuve LIgILened
LIe screws on operuLIonuI perIormunce ure
noLorIous Ior cuLLIng uwuy uL reseurcI
und deveIopmenL spendIng.
Expanding into adjacent markets LypIcuIIy
requIres IncremenLuI InvesLed cupILuI LIuL Ieuds Lo
Iower, LIougI sLIII very uLLrucLIve, vuIue creuLIon
InLensILy In LIe runge oI $o.o Lo $o.; per doIIur
oI new revenue. ucIIILuLIng udjucenL murkeL
expunsIon requIres ouLsLundIng execuLIon skIIIs
und orgunIzuLIonuI exIbIIILy.
Maintaining or growing share In u growIng murkeL
requIres subsLunLIuI IncremenLuI InvesLmenLs
Lo muke LIe producL und ILs vuIue dIsLIncLIve. BuL
us Iong us LIe murkeL Is sLIII growIng, murgIns
ure noL compeLed uwuy. As u resuIL, we esLImuLe
vuIue creuLIon In LIe runge oI $o.1o Lo $o.o
per doIIur oI new revenue.
Growing share in a stable market does noL uIwuys
creuLe vuIue. WIIIe IncremenLuI InvesLmenLs
ure noL uIwuys muLerIuI, compeLILIon Ior sIure In
order Lo muInLuIn scuIe Is LypIcuIIy InLense,
IeudIng Lo Iower murgIns. We esLImuLe LIuL
o McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Exhibit The intensity of value creation varies by mode of growth.
McKinsey on <practice> <issue number>
<Article slug>
Exhibit < > of < >
1
SLyIIzed resuILs bused on consumer producLs exumpIes.
z
Assumes u $o bIIIIon murkeL cup, uII-sLock compuny wILI $z bIIIIon oI revenue expecLed Lo grow uL GDP ruLes und consLunL
reLurn on InvesLed cupILuI (ROC).
ExumInuLIon oI 8 deuIs reveuIed sIorL-Lerm vuIue creuLIon Ior ucquIrer oI 11% Ior ;LI percenLIIe deuIs und -1% Ior oLI
percenLIIe deuIs.
Acquisition (25th to
75th percentile result)
3
0.50.20 n/m50
Category of growth
Shareholder value
created for incremental
$1 million of growth/
target acquisition size
1
Revenue growth/
acquisition size necessary
to double typical companys
share price,
2
$ billions
Competing for share
in a stable market
0.250.40 n/m25
Expanding an
existing market
0.300.75 1333
Maintaining/growing
share in a growing market
0.100.50 20100
New-product
market development
1.752.00 56
Consumer goods industry
IncreusIng sIure In u reIuLIveIy muLure murkeL
muy desLroy us mucI us $o.z or creuLe
us mucI us $o.qo oI sIureIoIder vuIue Ior every
doIIur oI new revenue. And Ior compunIes
wIose growLI Is uIreudy sLuIIIng, growLI In
u sLubIe murkeL mereIy posLpones
LIe InevILubIe.
Acquisitions. WIIIe LIey cun drIve u muLerIuI
umounL oI Lop-IIne growLI In LIe reIuLIveIy
sIorL order, IL Is now wIdeIy uccepLed LIuL LIe
uveruge ucquIrer cupLures reIuLIveIy IILLIe
sIureIoIder vuIue Irom ILs deuIs.
n IucL, LIe
numbers suggesL LIuL even un ucquIrer
wIo consIsLenLIy enjoys u Lop-quurLIIe murkeL
reucLIon In eucI oI ILs deuIs wIII creuLe
onIy ubouL $o.zo In sIureIoIder vuIue Ior every
$1 mIIIIon In revenues ucquIred.
q
ObvIousIy, LIe sIze und LImIng oI growLI oppor-
LunILIes ure deLermIned by busIness IundumenLuIs
wILIIn eucI IndusLry. TypIcuIIy, LIougI, LIey
Lend Lo come In reIuLIveIy smuII IncremenLs und
muLure over muILIpIe yeurs. n LIe consumer
goods IndusLry, one sLudy
TIose wILI u Len-yeur uveruge ROC In 1qq greuLer LIun or equuI Lo 6 percenL buL Iess LIun q percenL.
Increased
Decreased
Total returns to shareholders (TRS),
1
19962005, compared with returns on invested capital (ROIC)
Companies with
high ROIC
2
Companies with
medium ROIC
3
Companies with
low ROIC
4
McKinsey on Finance
Growth
Exhibit 1 of 3
1
MedIun oI compound uveruge unnuuI TRS Irom 1qq6 Lo zoo Ior eucI group oI compunIes, udjusLed Ior compound
1qq6-zoo uveruge TRS oI S&P oo Index compunIes (6.q%).
z
;8 compunIes wILI 1o-yeur uveruge ROC azo% und murkeL cupILuIIzuLIon >$z bIIIIon In 1qq.
1zq compunIes wILI 1o-yeur uveruge ROC aq% und murkeL cupILuIIzuLIon >$z bIIIIon In 1qq.
q
6q compunIes wILI 1o-yeur uveruge ROC a6% buL <q% und murkeL cupILuIIzuLIon >$z bIIIIon In 1qq.
Excerpt from
Emerging markets arent as risky as you think
Number 7,
Spring 2003
Marc H. Goedhart and Peter Haden
No question, emerging-market investments are exposed to additional risks, including accelerated ination,
exchange rate changes, adverse repatriation and scal measures, and macroeconomic and political
distress. These elements clearly call for a different approach to investment decisions.
However, while individual country risks may be high, they actually have low correlations with each other.
As a result, the overall performance of an emerging-market portfolio can be quite stable if invest-
ments are spread out over several countries. At one international consumer goods company, for example,
returns on invested capital for the combined portfolio of emerging-market businesses have been
as stable as those for developed markets in North America and Europe over the last 20 years.
1
We found
similarly low correlations of GDP growth across emerging-market economies and the United States
and Europe over the last 15 years (exhibit). These ndings, we believe, also hold for other sectors.
Country-specic risks can also affect different businesses differently. For one parent company, sustaining
its emerging-market businesses during a crisis not only demonstrated that it could counter country
specic risk but also strengthened its position as local funding for competitors dried up. For this company,
sales growth, when measured in a stable currency, tended to pick up strongly after a crisis, a pattern
that played out consistently through all the crises it encountered in emerging markets.
Return on invested capital (ROIC) for international consumer goods company; index: combined-portfolio ROIC
for developed markets = 100 in 1981
Smoothing out the risks
McKinsey on Finance
Emerging Markets
Exhibit 1 of 3
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
ROIC
1
for combined portfolios ROIC
1
for selected individual emerging markets
1
Expressed In sLubIe currency prIor Lo IndexIng und udjusLed Ior IocuI uccounLIng dIIIerences; combIned porLIoIIo IncIudes
uddILIonuI counLrIes noL reIIecLed In exIIbIL.
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
1981 1985 1989
Emerging
markets
Developed
markets
1993 1997 2001
Country D
Country E
Country A
Country B
Country C
Governance and risk
6
Dealing with investors
;
In this section:
Robert N. Palter, Werner Rehm, and Jonathan Shih
Communicating with
the right investors
Executives spend too much time talking with investors who dont matter.
Heres how to identify those who do.
Number 27,
Spring 2008
Features
57 Communicating with the right investors (Spring 2008)
64 Do fundamentalsor emotionsdrive the stock market? (Spring 2005)
Excerpts from
60 Inside a hedge fund: An interview with the managing partner of
Maverick Capital (Spring 2006)
62 Numbers investors can trust (Summer 2003)
63 The misguided practice of earnings guidance (Spring 2006)
69 The truth about growth and value stocks (Winter 2007)
Muny execuLIves spend Loo mucI LIme communI-
cuLIng wILI InvesLors LIey wouId be beLLer oII Ignor-
Ing. CEOs und COs, In purLIcuIur, devoLe un
InordInuLe umounL oI LIme Lo one-on-one meeLIngs
wILI InvesLors, InvesLmenL conIerences, und oLIer
sIureIoIder communIcuLIons,
1
oILen wILIouL IuvIng
u cIeur pIcLure oI wIIcI InvesLors reuIIy counL.
TIe reuson, In purL, Is LIuL Loo muny compunIes
segmenL InvesLors usIng LrudILIonuI meLIods
LIuL yIeId onIy u sIuIIow undersLundIng oI LIeIr
moLIves und beIuvIor; Ior exumpIe, we repeuLedIy
run ucross InvesLor reIuLIons groups LIuL Lry
Lo posILIon InvesLors us growLI or vuIue InvesLors-
mIrrorIng LIe cIussIc upproucI LIuL InvesLors
use Lo segmenL compunIes. TIe expecLuLIon Is LIuL
growLI InvesLors wIII puy more, so II u compuny
cun persuude LIem Lo buy ILs sLock, ILs sIure prIce
wIII rIse. TIuL expecLuLIon Is IuIse: muny
growLI InvesLors buy uILer un Increuse In sIure
8 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Exhibit When intrinsic investors trade, they trade more per
day than other investors do.
McKinsey on 27
Investor Communications
Exhibit 2 of 2
1
ncIudes onIy duys wIen InvesLor Lruded.
Annual trading
activity per
segment, $ trillion
Investor
segment
Annual trading
activity per investor
in segment, $ billion
Annual trading
activity per investor
in segment per
investment, $ million
Trading activity per
investor in segment
per investment per
day,
1
$ million
Trading
oriented
11 88 277 1
Mechanical 6 6 17 2
Intrinsic 6 72 79109 3
prIces. More ImporLunL, LrudILIonuI segmenLu-
LIon upproucIes reveuI IILLIe ubouL LIe wuy
InvesLors decIde Lo buy und seII sIures. How Iong
does un InvesLor LypIcuIIy IoId onLo u posILIon,
Ior exumpIe? How concenLruLed Is LIe InvesLor`s
porLIoIIo? WIIcI hnuncIuI und operuLIonuI
duLu ure mosL IeIpIuI Ior LIe InvesLor? We beIIeve
LIuL LIe unswers Lo LIese und sImIIur
quesLIons provIde beLLer InsIgILs Ior cIussI-
IyIng InvesLors.
Once u compuny segmenLs InvesLors uIong LIe
rIgIL IInes, IL cun quIckIy IdenLIIy LIose wIo
muLLer mosL. TIese ImporLunL InvesLors, wIom
we cuII InLrInsIc InvesLors, buse LIeIr decI-
sIons on u deep undersLundIng oI u compuny`s
sLruLegy, ILs currenL perIormunce, und ILs
poLenLIuI Lo creuLe Iong-Lerm vuIue. TIey ure uIso
more IIkeIy LIun oLIer InvesLors Lo supporL
munugemenL LIrougI sIorL-Lerm voIuLIIILy.
ExecuLIves wIo reucI ouL Lo InLrInsIc InvesLors,
IeuvIng oLIers Lo LIe InvesLor reIuLIons
depurLmenL,
z
wIII devoLe Iess LIme Lo InvesLor
reIuLIons und communIcuLe u cIeurer, more
Iocused messuge. TIe resuIL sIouId be u beLLer
uIIgnmenL beLween u compuny`s InLrInsIc
vuIue und ILs murkeL vuIue, one oI LIe core gouIs oI
InvesLor reIuLIons.
A better segmentation
No execuLIve wouId LuIk Lo ImporLunL cusLomers
wILIouL undersLundIng Iow LIey muke
purcIuse decIsIons, yeL muny rouLIneIy LuIk Lo
InvesLors wILIouL undersLundIng LIeIr
InvesLmenL crILerIu. Our unuIysIs oI LypIcuI
IoIdIng perIods, InvesLmenL porLIoIIo
concenLruLIons, LIe number oI proIessIonuIs
InvoIved In decIsIons, und uveruge LrudIng
voIumes-us weII us LIe IeveI oI deLuII InvesLors
requIre wIen LIey underLuke reseurcI
on u compuny-suggesLs LIuL InvesLors cun be
dIsLrIbuLed umong LIree broud cuLegorIes.
Intrinsic investors
nLrInsIc InvesLors Luke u posILIon In u compuny
onIy uILer rIgorous due dIIIgence oI ILs
InLrInsIc ubIIILy Lo creuLe Iong-Lerm vuIue. TIIs
scruLIny LypIcuIIy Lukes more LIun u monLI.
q
We esLImuLe LIuL LIese InvesLors IoId zo percenL
oI US usseLs und conLrIbuLe 1o percenL oI LIe
LrudIng voIume In LIe US murkeL.
n InLervIews wILI more LIun zo InLrInsIc
InvesLors, we Iound LIuL LIey Iuve concenLruLed
porLIoIIos-eucI posILIon, on uveruge, mukes
up z Lo percenL oI LIeIr porLIoIIos und perIups
us mucI us 1o percenL; LIe uveruge posILIon
oI oLIer InvesLors Is Iess LIun 1 percenL. nLrInsIc
InvesLors uIso IoId Iew posILIons per unuIysL
(Irom Iour Lo Len compunIes) und IoId sIures Ior
severuI yeurs. Once LIey Iuve InvesLed, LIese
proIessIonuIs supporL LIe currenL munugemenL
und sLruLegy LIrougI sIorL-Lerm voIuLIIILy.
n vIew oI uII LIe eIIorL InLrInsIc InvesLors expend,
execuLIves cun expecL Lo Iuve LIeIr IuII
uLLenLIon wIIIe reucIIng ouL Lo LIem, Ior LIey
Luke LIe LIme Lo IIsLen, Lo unuIyze, und Lo
usk InsIgILIuI quesLIons.
TIese InvesLors uIso Iuve u Iurge ImpucL on
LIe wuy u compuny`s InLrInsIc vuIue IInes up wILI
ILs murkeL vuIue-un eIIecL LIuL occurs
mecIunIcuIIy becuuse wIen LIey Lrude, LIey Lrude
In IIgI voIumes (exIIbIL). TIey uIso Iuve u
psycIoIogIcuI eIIecL on LIe murkeL becuuse LIeIr
repuLuLIon Ior very weII-LImed Lrudes mugnIhes
LIeIr Inuence on oLIer InvesLors. One IndIcuLIon
oI LIeIr Inuence: LIere ure enLIre Web sILes
(sucI us Guruocus.com, SLockpIckr.com, und
MIIuIs.com) LIuL IoIIow LIe porLIoIIos oI
weII-known InLrInsIc InvesLors.
Mechanical investors
MecIunIcuI InvesLors, IncIudIng compuLer-run
Index Iunds und InvesLors wIo use compuLer
modeIs Lo drIve LIeIr Lrudes, muke decIsIons bused
on sLrIcL crILerIu or ruIes. We uIso IncIude
In LIIs cuLegory LIe so-cuIIed cIoseL Index Iunds.
TIese ure Iurge InsLILuLIonuI InvesLors wIose
porLIoIIos resembIe LIose oI un Index Iund becuuse
oI LIeIr sIze, even LIougI LIey don`L posILIon
LIemseIves In LIuL wuy.
q
We esLImuLe LIuL uround z percenL oI LIe
LoLuI equILy In LIe UnILed SLuLes sILs In pureIy
mecIunIcuI InvesLmenL Iunds oI uII kInds.
Becuuse LIeIr upproucI oIIers no reuI room Ior
quuIILuLIve decIsIon crILerIu, sucI us LIe
sLrengLI oI u munugemenL Leum or u sLruLegy,
InvesLor reIuLIons cun`L Inuence LIem Lo
IncIude u compuny`s sIures In un Index Iund.
SImIIurIy, LIese InvesLors` quunLILuLIve crILerIu,
sucI us buyIng sLocks wILI Iow prIce-Lo-
equILy ruLIos or LIe sIures oI compunIes beIow
u cerLuIn sIze, ure bused on muLIemuLIcuI
modeIs oI greuLer or Iesser sopIIsLIcuLIon, noL
on InsIgILs ubouL IundumenLuI sLruLegy und
vuIue creuLIon.
n LIe cuse oI cIoseL Index Iunds, eucI InvesLmenL
proIessIonuI IundIes, on uveruge, 1oo Lo
1o posILIons, mukIng IL ImpossIbIe Lo do In-depLI
reseurcI LIuL couId be Inuenced by meeLIngs
wILI un InvesLmenL LurgeL`s munugemenL. n purL,
LIe IIgI number oI posILIons per proIessIonuI
reecLs LIe IucL LIuL mosL cIoseL Index Iunds ure
purL oI Iurger InvesLmenL Iouses LIuL sepu-
ruLe LIe roIes oI Iund munuger und reseurcIer.
TIe munugers oI InLrInsIc InvesLors, by
conLrusL, know every compuny In LIeIr porLIoIIos
In depLI.
Traders
TIe InvesLmenL proIessIonuIs In LIe Lruder
group seek sIorL-Lerm hnuncIuI guIn by beLLIng on
news ILems, sucI us LIe possIbIIILy LIuL u com-
puny`s quurLerIy eurnIngs per sIure (EPS) wIII be
ubove or beIow LIe consensus vIew or, In LIe
cuse oI u drug muker, recenL reporLs LIuL u cIInIcuI
LrIuI Ius gone budIy. Truders conLroI ubouL
percenL oI US equILy IoIdIngs. SucI InvesLors
don`L reuIIy wunL Lo undersLund compunIes
Dealing with investors
6o McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Excerpt from
Inside a hedge fund
Number 19,
Spring 2006
First and foremost, were trying to understand
the business. How sustainable is growth?
How sustainable are returns on capital? How
intelligently is it deploying that capital?
Our goal is to know more about every one of
the companies in which we invest than
any noninsider does. On average, we hold
fewer than ve positions per investment
professionala ratio that is far lower than most
hedge funds and even large mutual-fund
complexes. And our sector heads, who on
average have over 15 years of investment
experience, have typically spent their entire
careers focused on just one industry,
allowing them to develop long-term relationships
not only with the senior management of
most of the signicant companies but also with
employees several levels below.
Lee Ainslie
Managing partner of
Maverick Capital
on u deep IeveI-LIey jusL seek beLLer InIormuLIon
Ior mukIng Lrudes. NoL LIuL Lruders don`L
undersLund compunIes or IndusLrIes; on LIe con-
Lrury, LIese InvesLors IoIIow LIe news ubouL
LIem cIoseIy und oILen upproucI compunIes
dIrecLIy, seekIng nuunces or InsIgILs LIuL couId
muLLer greuLIy In LIe sIorL Lerm. TIe uveruge
InvesLmenL proIessIonuI In LIIs segmenL Ius zo or
more posILIons Lo IoIIow, Iowever, und Lrudes
In und ouL oI LIem quIckIy Lo cupLure smuII guIns
over sIorL perIods-us sIorL us u Iew duys or
even Iours. ExecuLIves LIereIore Iuve no reuson
Lo spend LIme wILI Lruders.
Focused communications
MosL InvesLor reIuLIons depurLmenLs couId creuLe
LIe kInd oI segmenLuLIon we descrIbe. TIey
sIouId uIso consIder severuI uddILIonuI Iuyers oI
InIormuLIon, sucI us wIeLIer un InvesLor
does (or pIuns Lo) IoId sIures In u compuny or
Ius uIreudy InvesLed eIsewIere In ILs secLor.
A LIorougI segmenLuLIon LIuL IdenLIhes sopIIsLI-
cuLed InLrInsIc InvesLors wIII uIIow compunIes Lo
munuge LIeIr InvesLor reIuLIons more successIuIIy.
Dont oversimplify your message
nLrInsIc InvesLors Iuve spenL consIderubIe eIIorL
Lo undersLund your busIness, so don`L boII down
u dIscussIon oI sLruLegy und perIormunce Lo
u Len-second sound bILe Ior LIe press or Lruders.
MunugemenL sIouId uIso be open ubouL LIe
reIevunL deLuIIs oI LIe compuny`s currenL
perIormunce und Iow IL reIuLes Lo sLruLegy. Suys
one porLIoIIo munuger, don`L wunL InsIde
InIormuLIon. BuL do wunL munugemenL Lo Iook
me In LIe eye wIen LIey LuIk ubouL LIeIr
perIormunce. I LIey uvoId u dIscussIon or
expIunuLIon, we wIII noL InvesL, no muLLer Iow
uLLrucLIve LIe numbers Iook.
Interpret feedback in the right context
MosL compunIes ugree LIuL IL Is useIuI Lo
undersLund LIe vIews oI InvesLors wIIIe deveIop-
Ing sLruLegIes und InvesLor communIcuLIons.
YeL munugemenL oILen reIIes on sImpIe summurIes
oI InLervIews wILI InvesLors und seII-sIde unuIysLs
ubouL everyLIIng Irom sLruLegy Lo quurLerIy
eurnIngs Lo sIure repurcIuses. TIIs upproucI
gIves munugemenL no wuy oI IInkIng LIe
vIews oI InvesLors Lo LIeIr ImporLunce Ior LIe
compuny or Lo LIeIr InvesLmenL sLruLegIes.
A segmenLed upproucI, wIIcI cIurIhes eucI
InvesLor`s gouIs und needs, IeLs execu-
LIves InLerpreL Ieedbuck In conLexL und weIgI
messuges uccordIngIy.
61
Prioritize managements time
A CEO or CO sIouId devoLe LIme Lo
communIcuLIng onIy wILI LIe mosL ImporLunL und
knowIedgeubIe InLrInsIc InvesLors LIuL Iuve
proIessIonuIs specIuIIzIng In LIe compuny`s secLor.
Moreover, u CEO sIouId LIInk LwIce beIore
uLLendIng conIerences II equILy unuIysLs Iuve
urrunged LIe guesL IIsLs, unIess munuge-
menL regurds LIose guesLs us InLrInsIc InvesLors.
WIen u compuny Iocuses ILs communIcu-
LIons on LIem, IL muy weII Iuve more ImpucL In
u sIorLer umounL oI LIme.
n our experIence, InLrInsIc InvesLors LIInk
LIuL execuLIves sIouId spend no more LIun ubouL
1o percenL oI LIeIr LIme on InvesLor-reIuLed
ucLIvILIes, so munugemenL sIouId be ucLIveIy
engugIng wILI 1 Lo zo InvesLors uL mosL.
TIe InvesLor reIuLIons depurLmenL ougIL Lo
IdenLIIy LIe mosL ImporLunL ones, revIew
LIe IIsL reguIurIy, und proLecL munugemenL Irom
LIe LeIepIone cuIIs oI unuIysLs und mecIunIcuI
InvesLors, wIo ure noL u IIgI prIorILy. ExecuLIves
sIouId LuIk Lo equILy unuIysLs onIy II LIeIr
reporLs ure ImporLunL cIunneIs Ior InLerpreLIng
compIIcuLed news; oLIerwIse, InvesLor
reIuLIons cun gIve LIem uny reIevunL duLu LIey
requIre, II uvuIIubIe.
MurkeLIng execuLIves rouLIneIy segmenL cusLomers
by LIe decIsIon processes LIose cusLomers use
und LuIIor LIe corporuLe Imuge und ud cumpuIgns
Lo LIe mosL ImporLunL ones. CompunIes
couId benehL Irom u sImIIur kInd oI unuIyLIc rIgor
In LIeIr InvesLor reIuLIons.
1
ncIudIng u wIde runge oI communIcuLIons ucLIvILIes,
sucI us unnuuI sIureIoIder meeLIngs, conIerences wILI seII-sIde
unuIysLs, quurLerIy eurnIngs cuIIs, und murkeL upduLes.
z
TIIs urLIcIe deuIs onIy wILI InsLILuLIonuI InvesLors, sInce
munugemenL usuuIIy spends LIe mosL LIme wILI LIem.
We uIso excIude ucLIvIsL InvesLors, us LIey represenL u dIIIerenL
InvesLor reIuLIons Issue Ior munugemenL.
I LIIs gouI sounds counLerInLuILIve, consIder LIe uILernuLIves.
CIeurIy, undervuIuuLIon Isn`L desIrubIe. An overvuIuuLIon
Is goIng Lo be correcLed sooner or IuLer, und LIe correcLIon wIII,
umong oLIer LIIngs, dIsLress bourd members und empIoyees
wILI worLIIess sLock opLIons Issued wIen LIe sIures
were overvuIued.
q
or more on cIoseL Index Iunds, see MurLIjn Cremers und
AnLLI PeLujIsL, How ucLIve Is your Iund munuger? A new meusure
LIuL predIcLs perIormunce, AA CIIcugo MeeLIngs Puper,
Junuury 1, zoo;.
Dealing with investors
6z McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Excerpt from
Numbers investors can trust
Number 8,
Summer 2003
Tim Koller
Financial statements should be organized with more detail and with an aim to clearly separating operating
from nonoperating items. Its not easy. In fact, current accounting rules exhibit something less than
common sense in dening operating versus nonoperating or nonrecurring items. As a start, however,
company income statements should close the biggest gaps in the current system by separately
identifying the following items.
Nonrecurring pension expense adjustments. These often have more to do with the performance of
the pension fund than the operating performance of the company. Investors would benet from being able
to assess a companys operating performance compared to peers over time separately from its skills
at managing its pension assets.
Gains and losses from assets sales that are not recurring. Large companies like to bury gains from asset
sales in operating results because it makes their operating performance look better, often arguing that
the impact is immaterial. But investors should be the ones who decide what is material. Companies should
also separate out gains from losses. Now companies sometimes sell assets to create gains to offset
losses from asset sales, and some top-ranked multinationals are well known for doing this on a regular basis.
This is a perverse incentive that would go away if companies were required to disclose gains and losses.
In a more useful income statement, complex or nonrecurring items such as pension expenses, stock
options, changes in restructuring reserves, and asset gains or losses would be separately disclosed,
regardless of materiality. Similarly, balance sheets should separate assets and liabilities that are used in the
operations of the business from other assets and liabilities, such as excess cash not needed to fund
the operations, or investments in unrelated activities.
A more useful approach to reporting would also include a focus on business units. Todays large companies
are complex, with multiple business units that rarely have the same growth potential and protability.
Sophisticated investors will try to value each business unit separately or build up consolidated forecasts
from the sum of the individual business units. Yet many companies report only the minimum required
information and often not enough for investors to understand the underlying health of the business units.
Nearly always, business unit results are relegated to the footnotes at the back of the annual report,
though a good case can be made that business unit reporting is in fact more important than the
consolidated results and should be the focus of corporate reporting. At a minimum, companies should
produce a clear operating-income statement.
6
Excerpt from
The misguided practice of earnings guidance
Number 19,
Spring 2006
Peggy Hsieh, Tim Koller, and S. R. Rajan
Most companies view the quarterly ritual of issuing earnings guidance as a necessary, if sometimes
onerous, part of investor relations. The benets, they hope, are improved communications with
nancial markets, lower share price volatility, and higher valuations. At the least, companies expect
frequent earnings guidance to boost their stocks liquidity.
Yet our analysis of companies across all sectors and an in-depth examination of two mature represen-
tative industriesconsumer packaged goods (CPG) and pharmaceuticalsfound no evidence to support
those expectations. The ndings fell into three categories:
Valuations. Contrary to what some companies believe, frequent guidance does not result in
superior valuations in the marketplace; indeed, guidance appears to have no signicant relationship
with valuationsregardless of the year, the industry, or the size of the company in question.
Volatility. When a company begins to issue earnings guidance, its share price volatility is as likely to
increase as to decrease compared with that of companies that dont issue guidance.
Liquidity. When companies begin issuing quarterly earnings guidance, they experience increases
in trading volumes relative to companies that dont provide it. However, the relative increase in trading
volumeswhich is more prevalent for companies with revenues in excess of $2 billionwears off
the following year.
With scant evidence of any shareholder benets to be gained from providing frequent earnings
guidance but clear evidence of increased costs, managers should consider whether there is a better way
to communicate with analysts and investors.
We believe there is. Instead of providing frequent earnings guidance, companies can help the market to
understand their business, the underlying value drivers, the expected business climate, and their
strategyin short, to understand their long-term health as well as their short-term performance. Analysts
and investors would then be better equipped to forecast the nancial performance of these companies
and to reach conclusions about their value.
Dealing with investors
6q McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
TIere`s never been u beLLer LIme Lo be u beIuv-
IorIsL. DurIng Iour decudes, LIe ucudemIc LIeory
LIuL hnuncIuI murkeLs uccuruLeIy reecL u
sLock`s underIyIng vuIue wus uII buL unussuIIubIe.
BuL IuLeIy, LIe vIew LIuL InvesLors cun Iun-
dumenLuIIy cIunge u murkeL`s course LIrougI
IrruLIonuI decIsIons Ius been movIng InLo
LIe muInsLreum.
WILI LIe exuberunce oI LIe IIgI-LecI sLock bubbIe
und LIe crusI oI LIe IuLe 1qqos sLIII IresI In
InvesLors` memorIes, udIerenLs oI LIe beIuvIorIsL
scIooI ure hndIng IL eusIer LIun ever Lo spreud
LIe beIIeI LIuL murkeLs cun be someLIIng Iess LIun
eIhcIenL In ImmedIuLeIy dIsLIIIIng new InIor-
muLIon und LIuL InvesLors, drIven by emoLIon, cun
Indeed Ieud murkeLs uwry. Some beIuvIorIsLs
wouId even usserL LIuL sLock murkeLs Ieud IIves oI
LIeIr own, deLucIed Irom economIc growLI
und busIness prohLubIIILy. A number oI hnunce
scIoIurs und prucLILIoners Iuve urgued LIuL
sLock murkeLs ure noL eIhcIenL-LIuL Is, LIuL LIey
Marc H. Goedhart, Tim Koller, and David Wessels
Do fundamentals
or emotionsdrive the
stock market?
Emotions can drive market behavior in a few short-lived situations. But fundamentals still rule. Number 15,
Spring 2005
6
don`L necessurIIy reecL economIc IundumenLuIs.
1
AccordIng Lo LIIs poInL oI vIew, sIgnIhcunL und
IusLIng devIuLIons Irom LIe InLrInsIc vuIue oI u com-
puny`s sIure prIce occur In murkeL vuIuuLIons.
TIe urgumenL Is more LIun ucudemIc. n LIe
1q8os, LIe rIse oI sLock murkeL Index Iunds, wIIcI
now IoId some $1 LrIIIIon In usseLs, wus cuused
In Iurge purL by LIe convIcLIon umong InvesLors
LIuL eIhcIenL-murkeL LIeorIes were vuIuubIe.
And currenL debuLes In LIe UnILed SLuLes und eIse-
wIere ubouL prIvuLIzIng SocIuI SecurILy und
oLIer reLIremenL sysLems muy IInge on
ussumpLIons ubouL Iow InvesLors ure IIkeIy Lo
IundIe LIeIr reLIremenL opLIons.
We ugree LIuL beIuvIoruI hnunce oIIers some
vuIuubIe InsIgILs-cIIeI umong LIem LIe Ideu LIuL
murkeLs ure noL uIwuys rIgIL, sInce ruLIonuI
InvesLors cun`L uIwuys correcL Ior mIsprIcIng by
IrruLIonuI ones. BuL Ior munugers, LIe crILIcuI
quesLIon Is Iow oILen LIese devIuLIons urIse und
wIeLIer LIey ure so IrequenL und sIgnIhcunL
LIuL LIey sIouId uIIecL LIe process oI hnuncIuI
decIsIon mukIng. n IucL, sIgnIhcunL devIu-
LIons Irom InLrInsIc vuIue ure rure, und murkeLs
usuuIIy reverL rupIdIy Lo sIure prIces commen-
suruLe wILI economIc IundumenLuIs. TIereIore,
munugers sIouId conLInue Lo use LIe LrIed-
und-Lrue unuIysIs oI u compuny`s dIscounLed cusI
ow Lo muke LIeIr vuIuuLIon decIsIons.
When markets deviate
BeIuvIoruI-hnunce LIeory IoIds LIuL murkeLs
mIgIL IuII Lo reecL economIc IundumenLuIs under
LIree condILIons. WIen uII LIree uppIy, LIe
LIeory predIcLs LIuL prIcIng bIuses In hnuncIuI
murkeLs cun be boLI sIgnIhcunL und persIsLenL.
Irrational behavior
nvesLors beIuve IrruLIonuIIy wIen LIey don`L
correcLIy process uII LIe uvuIIubIe InIormuLIon
wIIIe IormIng LIeIr expecLuLIons oI u compuny`s
IuLure perIormunce. Some InvesLors, Ior exumpIe,
uLLucI Loo mucI ImporLunce Lo recenL evenLs
und resuILs, un error LIuL Ieuds LIem Lo overprIce
compunIes wILI sLrong recenL perIormunce.
OLIers ure excessIveIy conservuLIve und under-
prIce sLocks oI compunIes LIuL Iuve reIeused
posILIve news.
Systematic patterns of behavior
Even II IndIvIduuI InvesLors decIded Lo buy or seII
wILIouL consuILIng economIc IundumenLuIs, LIe
ImpucL on sIure prIces wouId sLIII be IImILed. OnIy
wIen LIeIr IrruLIonuI beIuvIor Is uIso sysLemuLIc
(LIuL Is, wIen Iurge groups oI InvesLors sIure
purLIcuIur puLLerns oI beIuvIor) sIouId persIsLenL
prIce devIuLIons occur. Hence beIuvIoruI-hnunce
LIeory urgues LIuL puLLerns oI overconhdence,
overreucLIon, und overrepresenLuLIon ure common
Lo muny InvesLors und LIuL sucI groups cun be
Iurge enougI Lo prevenL u compuny`s sIure prIce
Irom reecLIng underIyIng economIc
IundumenLuIs-uL IeusL Ior some sLocks, some
oI LIe LIme.
Limits to arbitrage in financial markets
WIen InvesLors ussume LIuL u compuny`s recenL
sLrong perIormunce uIone Is un IndIcuLIon
oI IuLure perIormunce, LIey muy sLurL bIddIng
Ior sIures und drIve up LIe prIce. Some
InvesLors mIgIL expecL u compuny LIuL surprIses
LIe murkeL In one quurLer Lo go on exceedIng
expecLuLIons. As Iong us enougI oLIer InvesLors
noLIce LIIs myopIc overprIcIng und respond
by LukIng sIorL posILIons, LIe sIure prIce wIII IuII
In IIne wILI ILs underIyIng IndIcuLors.
TIIs sorL oI urbILruge doesn`L uIwuys occur,
Iowever. n prucLIce, LIe cosLs, compIexILy, und
rIsks InvoIved In seLLIng up u sIorL posILIon
cun be Loo IIgI Ior IndIvIduuI InvesLors. I, Ior
exumpIe, LIe sIure prIce doesn`L reLurn Lo
Dealing with investors
66 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
ILs IundumenLuI vuIue wIIIe LIey cun sLIII IoId
on Lo u sIorL posILIon-LIe so-cuIIed noIse-
Lruder rIsk-LIey muy Iuve Lo seII LIeIr IoIdIngs
uL u Ioss.
Persistent mispricing in carve-outs and
dual-listed companies
Two weII-documenLed Lypes oI murkeL devIuLIon-
LIe mIsprIcIng oI curve-ouLs und oI duuI-
IIsLed compunIes-ure used Lo supporL beIuvIoruI-
hnunce LIeory. TIe cIussIc exumpIe Is LIe
prIcIng oI Com und PuIm uILer LIe IuLLer`s
curve-ouL In MurcI zooo.
n unLIcIpuLIon oI u IuII spIn-oII wILIIn nIne
monLIs, Com ouLed percenL oI ILs PuIm
subsIdIury. AImosL ImmedIuLeIy, PuIm`s murkeL
cupILuIIzuLIon wus IIgIer LIun LIe enLIre
murkeL vuIue oI Com, ImpIyIng LIuL Com`s oLIer
busInesses Iud u neguLIve vuIue. GIven LIe sIze
und prohLubIIILy oI LIe resL oI Com`s busInesses,
LIIs resuIL wouId cIeurIy IndIcuLe mIsprIcIng.
WIy dId ruLIonuI InvesLors IuII Lo expIoIL LIe
unomuIy by goIng sIorL on PuIm`s sIures und Iong
on Com`s? TIe reuson wus LIuL LIe number
oI uvuIIubIe PuIm sIures wus exLremeIy smuII uILer
LIe curve-ouL: Com sLIII IeId q percenL
oI LIem. As u resuIL, IL wus exLremeIy dIIhcuIL
Lo esLubIIsI u sIorL posILIon, wIIcI
wouId Iuve requIred borrowIng sIures Irom
u PuIm sIureIoIder.
DurIng LIe monLIs IoIIowIng LIe curve-ouL,
LIe mIsprIcIng gruduuIIy becume Iess pronounced
us LIe suppIy oI sIures LIrougI sIorL suIes
Increused sLeudIIy. YeL wIIIe muny InvesLors und
unuIysLs knew ubouL LIe prIce dIIIerence,
IL persIsLed Ior Lwo monLIs-unLII LIe nLernuI
Revenue ServIce IormuIIy upproved LIe
curve-ouL`s Lux-Iree sLuLus In eurIy Muy zooz.
AL LIuL poInL, u sIgnIhcunL purL oI LIe uncerLuInLy
uround LIe spIn-oII wus removed und
LIe prIce dIscrepuncy dIsuppeured. TIIs correcLIon
suggesLs LIuL uL IeusL purL oI LIe mIsprIcIng wus
cuused by LIe rIsk LIuL LIe spIn-oII wouIdn`L occur.
AddILIonuI cuses oI mIsprIcIng beLween purenL
compunIes und LIeIr curved-ouL subsIdIurIes ure
weII documenLed.
z
n generuI, LIese cuses
InvoIve dIIhcuILIes seLLIng up sIorL posILIons Lo
expIoIL LIe prIce dIIIerences, wIIcI persIsL
unLII LIe spIn-oII Lukes pIuce or Is ubundoned. n
uII cuses, LIe mIsprIcIng wus correcLed wILIIn
severuI monLIs.
A second cIussIc exumpIe oI InvesLors devIuLIng
Irom IundumenLuIs Is LIe prIce dIspurILy beLween
LIe sIures oI LIe sume compuny Lruded on Lwo
dIIIerenL excIunges. Does LIIs IndIcL LIe murkeL
Ior mIsprIcIng? We don`L LIInk so. n recenL
yeurs, LIe prIce dIIIerences Ior RoyuI DuLcIJSIeII
und oLIer LwIn-sIure sLocks Iuve uII become
smuIIer. urLIermore, some oI LIese sIure
sLrucLures (und prIce dIIIerences) dIsuppeured
becuuse LIe corporuLIons IormuIIy merged,
u deveIopmenL LIuL underIInes LIe sIgnIhcunce oI
noIse-Lruder rIsk: us soon us u IormuI duLe wus
seL Ior dehnILIve prIce convergence, urbILrugeurs
sLepped In Lo correcL uny dIscrepuncy.
TIIs puLLern provIdes uddILIonuI evIdence LIuL
mIsprIcIng occurs onIy under specIuI
cIrcumsLunces-und Is by no meuns u common
or Iong-IusLIng pIenomenon.
Markets and fundamentals:
The bubble of the 1990s
Do murkeLs reecL economIc IundumenLuIs? We
beIIeve so. ong-Lerm reLurns on cupILuI und
growLI Iuve been remurkubIy consIsLenL Ior LIe
pusL yeurs, In spILe oI some deep recessIons
und perIods oI very sLrong economIc growLI. TIe
medIun reLurn on equILy Ior uII US compu-
nIes Ius been u very sLubIe 1z Lo 1 percenL, und
Iong-Lerm GDP growLI Ior LIe US economy In reuI
6;
Lerms Ius been ubouL percenL u yeur sInce
1qq.
TIIs
unuIysIs Ius Ied us Lo LIree ImporLunL concIu-
sIons. TIe hrsL Is LIuL US und UK sLock murkeLs,
by und Iurge, Iuve been IuIrIy prIced, Iover-
Ing neur LIeIr InLrInsIc PJE ruLIos. TIIs hgure wus
LypIcuIIy uround 1, wILI LIe excepLIon oI LIe
IIgI-InuLIon yeurs oI LIe IuLe 1q;os und eurIy
1q8os, wIen IL wus cIoser Lo 1o (exIIbIL).
Second, LIe IuLe 1q;os und IuLe 1qqos produced
sIgnIhcunL devIuLIons Irom InLrInsIc vuIuuLIons. n
LIe IuLe 1q;os, wIen InvesLors were obsessed
wILI IIgI sIorL-Lerm InuLIon ruLes, LIe murkeL
wus probubIy undervuIued; Iong-Lerm reuI
GDP growLI und reLurns on equILy IndIcuLe
LIuL IL sIouIdn`L Iuve boLLomed ouL uL PJE
IeveIs oI uround ;. TIe oLIer weII-known devIuLIon
occurred In LIe IuLe 1qqos, wIen LIe murkeL
reucIed u PJE ruLIo oI uround o-u IeveI LIuL
couIdn`L be jusLIhed by percenL Iong-Lerm
reuI GDP growLI or by 1 percenL reLurns on
book equILy.
TIIrd, wIen sucI devIuLIons occurred, LIe sLock
murkeL reLurned Lo ILs InLrInsIc-vuIuuLIon
IeveI wILIIn ubouL LIree yeurs. TIus, uILIougI
vuIuuLIons Iuve been wrong Irom LIme
Lo LIme-even Ior LIe sLock murkeL us u wIoIe-
evenLuuIIy LIey Iuve IuIIen buck In IIne
wILI economIc IundumenLuIs.
Focus on intrinsic value
WIuL ure LIe ImpIIcuLIons Ior corporuLe munugers?
PurudoxIcuIIy, we beIIeve LIuL sucI murkeL
devIuLIons muke IL even more ImporLunL Ior LIe
execuLIves oI u compuny Lo undersLund
LIe InLrInsIc vuIue oI ILs sIures. TIIs knowIedge
uIIows IL Lo expIoIL uny devIuLIons, II und
wIen LIey occur, Lo LIme LIe ImpIemenLuLIon oI
sLruLegIc decIsIons more successIuIIy. Here
ure some exumpIes oI Iow corporuLe munugers
cun Luke udvunLuge oI murkeL devIuLIons:
IssuIng uddILIonuI sIure cupILuI wIen
LIe sLock murkeL uLLucIes Loo IIgI u vuIue Lo
LIe compuny`s sIures reIuLIve Lo LIeIr
InLrInsIc vuIue
Exhibit Trends for P/E ratios reveal some uctuation followed
by a return to intrinsic valuation levels.
McKinsey on Finance
Behavior
Exhibit 2 of 2
1
WeIgILed uveruge PJE oI consLILuenL compunIes.
Source: SLundurd & Poor`s; McKInsey unuIysIs
1980 2002 1990 1999
P/E for S&P 500 overall
1
9 15 30 19
All other companies 9 15 23 16
30 largest companies 9 15 46 20
P/ E ratio for listed companies in United States
Dealing with investors
68 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
repurcIusIng sIures wIen LIe murkeL under-
prIces LIem reIuLIve Lo LIeIr InLrInsIc vuIue
puyIng Ior ucquIsILIons wILI sIures InsLeud oI
cusI wIen LIe murkeL overprIces LIem reIuLIve
Lo LIeIr InLrInsIc vuIue
dIvesLIng purLIcuIur busInesses uL LImes
wIen LrudIng und LrunsucLIon muILIpIes ure
IIgIer LIun cun be jusLIhed by underIy-
Ing IundumenLuIs
Beur Lwo LIIngs In mInd. IrsL, we don`L
recommend LIuL compunIes buse decIsIons Lo
Issue or repurcIuse LIeIr sIures, Lo dIvesL or
ucquIre busInesses, or Lo seLLIe LrunsucLIons wILI
cusI or sIures soIeIy on un ussumed dIIIerence
beLween LIe murkeL und InLrInsIc vuIue oI LIeIr
sIures. nsLeud, LIese decIsIons musL be
grounded In u sLrong busIness sLruLegy drIven
by LIe gouI oI creuLIng sIureIoIder vuIue.
MurkeL devIuLIons ure more reIevunL us LucLIcuI
consIderuLIons wIen compunIes LIme und
execuLe sucI decIsIons-Ior exumpIe, wIen Lo
Issue uddILIonuI cupILuI or Iow Lo puy Ior
u purLIcuIur LrunsucLIon.
Second, munugers sIouId be wury oI unuIyses
cIuImIng Lo IIgIIIgIL murkeL devIuLIons. MosL oI
LIe uIIeged cuses LIuL we Iuve come ucross In
our cIIenL experIence proved Lo be InsIgnIhcunL or
even nonexIsLenL, so LIe evIdence sIouId be
compeIIIng. urLIermore, LIe devIuLIons sIouId
be sIgnIhcunL In boLI sIze und duruLIon, gIven
LIe cupILuI und LIme needed Lo Luke udvunLuge oI
LIe Lypes oI opporLunILIes IIsLed prevIousIy.
ProvIded LIuL u compuny`s sIure prIce evenLuuIIy
reLurns Lo ILs InLrInsIc vuIue In LIe Iong run,
munugers wouId benehL Irom usIng u dIscounLed-
cusI-ow upproucI Ior sLruLegIc decIsIons.
WIuL sIouId muLLer Is LIe Iong-Lerm beIuvIor oI
LIe sIure prIce oI u compuny, noL wIeLIer IL
Is undervuIued by or 1o percenL uL uny gIven
LIme. or sLruLegIc busIness decIsIons, LIe
evIdence sLrongIy suggesLs LIuL LIe murkeL
reecLs InLrInsIc vuIue.
1
or un overvIew oI beIuvIoruI hnunce, see Juy R. RILLer,
BeIuvIoruI hnunce, Pccijc-csin Iincnce 1ourncl,
zoo, VoIume 11, Number q, pp. qzq-;; und NIcIoIus BurberIs
und RIcIurd H. TIuIer, A survey oI beIuvIoruI hnunce, In
Hcndbool oj the Economics oj Iincnce: Iincncicl Mcrlets cnd
Asset Pricin, G. M. ConsLunLInIdes eL uI. (eds.), New York:
EIsevIer NorLI-HoIIund, zoo, pp. 1oq-1z.
z
Owen A. umonL und RIcIurd H. TIuIer, Cun LIe murkeL
udd und subLrucL? MIsprIcIng In LecI sLock curve-ouLs,
1ourncl oj Politiccl Econom, zoo, VoIume 111, Number z,
pp. zz;-68; und Murk . MILcIeII, Todd C. PuIvIno, und
ErIk SLuIIord, ImILed urbILruge In equILy murkeLs, 1ourncl oj
Iincnce, zooz, VoIume ;, Number z, pp. 1-8q.
US corporuLe eurnIngs us u percenLuge oI GDP Iuve
been remurkubIy consLunL over LIe pusL yeurs, uL uround
6 percenL.
q
Murc H. GoedIurL, TImoLIy M. KoIIer, und Zune D. WIIIIums,
TIe reuI cosL oI equILy, McKinse on Iincnce, Number ,
AuLumn zooz, pp. 11-.
Murc H. GoedIurL, TImoLIy M. KoIIer, und Zune D. WIIIIums,
IvIng wILI Iower murkeL expecLuLIons, McKinse on
Iincnce, Number 8, Summer zoo, pp. ;-11.
6q
Excerpt from
The truth about growth and value stocks
Number 22,
Winter 2007
Bin Jiang and Tim Koller
Whats in a name? In the vernacular of equity markets, the words growth and value convey the specic
characteristics of stock categories that are deeply embedded in the investment strategies of investors
and fund managers. Leading US market indexes, such as the S&P 500, the Russell 1000, and the Dow
Jones Wilshire 2500, all divide themselves into growth- and value-style indexes.
Its not illogical to assume that having the label growth or value attached to a companys shares can
actually drive prices up or push them lower. In our experience, many executives have expended
considerable effort plotting to attract more growth investors, believing that an inux of growth investors
leads to higher valuations of a stock. Some executives even turn this assumption into a rationale
for using a high share price to defend risky acquisition programsfor example, in deference to presumed
shareholder expectations of growth.
The trouble is that such thinking is wrong in both cases. Although growth stocks are indeed valued at
a higher level than value stocks on average, as measured by market-to-book ratios (M/Bs), their revenue
growth rates are virtually indistinguishable from those of value stocks (exhibit). The growth indexs
10.1 percent median compounded revenue growth rate for 2002 to 2005 is not statistically different from
the 8.7 percent median of the value index. Thus, the probability that a company designated as
a growth stock will deliver a given growth rate is virtually indistinguishable from the probability that a value
company will do so.
Companies that show up on growth indexes actually dont grow
appreciably faster than those that show up on value indexes.
McKinsey on Finance 22
Growth stocks
Exhibit 1 of 2
1
S&P ooJBurru GrowLI ndex und S&P ooJBurru VuIue ndex us oI Dec zoo.
z
ExcIudIng goodwIII; does noL IncIude IInuncIuI-secLor sLocks; -yeur uveruge udjusLs Ior unnuuI voIuLIIILy.
Growth rate, 3-year average, 200205,
2
%
Median value = 8.7% Median growth = 10.1%
3 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 >25
8
10
12
14
6
4
2
0
Value stocks
Growth stocks
Frequency of growth
and value stocks exhibiting
given growth rate,
1
%
Dealing with investors
;o
The CFO
;1
In this section:
Bertil E. Chappuis, Aimee Kim, and Paul J. Roche
There are a few critical tasks that all finance chiefs must tackle in their
first hundred days.
Number 27,
Spring 2008
Features
71 Starting up as CFO (Spring 2008)
Excerpts from
72 Toward a leaner finance department (Spring 2006)
75 Organizing for value (Summer 2008)
Starting up as CFO
n recenL yeurs, COs Iuve ussumed IncreusIngIy
compIex, sLruLegIc roIes Iocused on drIvIng LIe
creuLIon oI vuIue ucross LIe enLIre busIness. GrowIng
sIureIoIder expecLuLIons und ucLIvIsm, more
InLense M&A, mounLIng reguIuLory scruLIny over
corporuLe conducL und compIIunce, und evoIv-
Ing expecLuLIons Ior LIe hnunce IuncLIon Iuve puL
COs In LIe mIddIe oI muny corporuLe decIsIons-
und mude LIem more dIrecLIy uccounLubIe
Ior LIe perIormunce oI compunIes.
NoL onIy Is LIe job more compIIcuLed, buL u IoL oI
COs ure new uL IL-Lurnover In zoo6 Ior orLune
oo compunIes wus esLImuLed uL 1 percenL.
1
CompoundIng LIe pressures, compunIes ure uIso
more IIkeIy Lo reucI ouLsIde LIe orgunIzuLIon
Lo recruIL new COs, wIo muy LIereIore Iuve Lo
Ieurn u new IndusLry us weII us u new roIe.
To sIow Iow IL Is cIungIng-und Iow Lo work
LIrougI LIe evoIvIng expecLuLIons-we surveyed
;z McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Excerpt from
Toward a leaner finance department
Number 19,
Spring 2006
Richard Dobbs, Herbert Pohl, and Florian Wolff
Three ideas from the lean-manufacturing world are particularly helpful in eliminating waste and improving
efciency in the nance function:
Focusing on external customers. Many nance departments can implement a more efciency-minded
approach by making the external customers of their companies the ultimate referee of which activities add
value and which create waste. By contrast, the nance function typically relies on some internal entity to
determine which reports are necessaryan approach that often unwittingly produces waste.
Exploiting chain reactions. The value of introducing a more efciency-focused mind-set isnt always
evident from just one step in the processin fact, the payoff from a single step may be rather
disappointing. The real power is cumulative, for a single initiative frequently exposes deeper problems
that, once addressed, lead to a more comprehensive solution.
Drilling down to root causes. No matter what problem an organization faces, the nance functions
default answer is often to add a new system or data warehouse to deal with complexity and
increase efciency. While such moves may indeed help companies deal with difcult situations, they
seldom tackle the real issues.
16q COs oI muny dIIIerenL Lenures
z
und
InLervIewed zo oI LIem. rom LIese sources, us
weII us our yeurs oI experIence workIng wILI
experIenced COs, we Iuve dIsLIIIed Iessons LIuL
sIed IIgIL on wIuL IL Lukes Lo succeed. We
empIusIze LIe InILIuI LrunsILIon perIod: LIe hrsL
LIree Lo sIx monLIs.
Early priorities
NewIy uppoInLed COs ure InvurIubIy InLeresLed,
oILen unxIousIy, In mukIng LIeIr murk. WIere
LIey sIouId Iocus vurIes Irom compuny Lo compuny.
n some, enLerprIse-wIde sLruLegIc und
LrunsIormuLIonuI InILIuLIves (sucI us vuIue-bused
munugemenL, corporuLe-cenLer sLruLegy, or
porLIoIIo opLImIzuLIon) requIre consIderubIe CO
InvoIvemenL. n oLIers, duy-Lo-duy busIness needs
cun be more demundIng und LIme sensILIve-
especIuIIy In LIe Surbunes-OxIey envIronmenL-
creuLIng sIgnIhcunL dIsLrucLIons unIess LIey
ure cureIuIIy munuged. WIen COs InIerIL un
orgunIzuLIon under sLress, LIey muy Iuve
no cIoIce buL Lo Ieud u Lurnuround, wIIcI requIres
Iurge umounLs oI LIme Lo cuL cosLs und
reussure InvesLors.
YeL some ucLIvILIes sIouId muke uImosL every
CO`s sIorL IIsL oI prIorILIes. GeLLIng LIem dehned
In u compuny-specIhc wuy Is u crILIcuI sLep In
buIuncIng eIIorLs Lo ucIIeve LecInIcuI exceIIence
In LIe hnunce IuncLIon wILI sLruLegIc InILIuLIves
Lo creuLe vuIue.
;
Conduct a value creation audit
TIe mosL crILIcuI ucLIvILy durIng u CO`s hrsL
Iundred duys, uccordIng Lo more LIun percenL
oI our survey respondenLs, Is undersLundIng
wIuL drIves LIeIr compuny`s busIness. TIese
drIvers IncIude LIe wuy u compuny mukes money,
ILs murgIn udvunLuge, ILs reLurns on InvesLed
cupILuI (ROC), und LIe reusons Ior LIem. AL LIe
sume LIme, LIe CO musL uIso consIder
poLenLIuI wuys Lo Improve LIese drIvers, sucI us
sources oI growLI, operuLIonuI ImprovemenLs,
und cIunges In LIe busIness modeI, us weII us Iow
mucI LIe compuny mIgIL guIn Irom uII oI LIem.
To deveIop LIuL undersLundIng, severuI COs we
InLervIewed conducLed u sLruLegy und vuIue
uudIL soon uILer ussumIng LIe posILIon. TIey evuIu-
uLed LIeIr compunIes Irom un InvesLor`s
perspecLIve Lo undersLund Iow LIe cupILuI murkeLs
wouId vuIue LIe reIuLIve ImpucL oI revenue
versus IIgIer murgIns or cupILuI eIhcIency und
ussessed wIeLIer eIIorLs Lo udjusL prIces,
cuL cosLs, und LIe IIke wouId creuLe vuIue, und II
so Iow mucI.
AILIougI LIIs kInd oI eIIorL wouId cIeurIy be u
prIorILy Ior exLernuI IIres, IL cun uIso be useIuI Ior
InLernuI ones. As u CO promoLed InLernuIIy
uL one IIgI-LecI compuny expIuIned, WIen wus
LIe CO oI u busIness unIL, never worrIed
ubouL corporuLe LuxuLIon. never LIougIL ubouL
porLIoIIo-IeveI rIsk exposure In Lerms oI producLs
und geogrupIIes. WIen becume corporuLe
CO, Iud Lo Ieurn ubouL busIness drIvers LIuL
ure Iess ImporLunL Lo IndIvIduuI busIness
unIL perIormunce.
TIe cIoIce oI InIormuLIon sources Ior geLLIng up Lo
speed on busIness drIvers cun vury. As COs
The CFO
Exhibit 1 The majority of CFOs in our survey wished theyd had
even more time with business unit heads.
McKinsey on Finance
CFO 100 days survey
Exhibit 1 of 3
If you could change the amount of time you spent with each of the
following individuals or groups during your rst 100 days as CFO, what
changes would you make?
Business unit heads 61 35
Former CFO 10 52 15 23
External investors or analysts 26 46 11 17
2 1
Finance staff 43 48 9
CEO 43 52 5
Board of directors 36 56 4 5
Executive committee 38 52 8
Less time Dont know No change More time
2
1
0
% of respondents,
1
n = 164
1
Igures muy noL sum Lo 1oo%, becuuse oI roundIng.
;q McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
conducLed LIeIr vuIue uudIL, LIey LypIcuIIy sLurLed
by musLerIng exIsLIng InIormuLIon, usuuIIy
by meeLIng wILI busIness unIL Ieuds, wIo noL onIy
sIured LIe specIhcs oI producL IInes or murkeLs
buL ure uIso ImporLunL becuuse LIey use LIe
hnunce IuncLIon`s servIces. ndeed, u mujorILy oI
COs In our survey, und purLIcuIurIy LIose In
prIvuLe compunIes, wIsIed LIuL LIey Iud spenL
even more LIme wILI LIIs group (ExIIbIL 1).
SucI meeLIngs uIIow COs Lo sLurL buIIdIng reIu-
LIonsIIps wILI LIese key sLukeIoIders oI LIe
hnunce IuncLIon und Lo undersLund LIeIr needs.
OLIer COs Iook Ior exLernuI perspecLIves
on LIeIr compunIes und on LIe murkeLpIuce by
LuIkIng Lo cusLomers, InvesLors, or proIessIonuI
servIce provIders. TIe CO uL one pIurmu
compuny reporLed spendIng IIs hrsL monLI on
LIe job rIdIng uround wILI u suIes rep und
meeLIng up wILI our key cusLomers. L`s umuzIng
Iow mucI ucLuuIIy Ieurned Irom LIese
dIscussIons. TIIs wus InIormuLIon LIuL no one
InsIde LIe compuny couId Iuve LoId me.
Lead the leaders
ExperIenced COs noL onIy undersLund und Lry Lo
drIve LIe CEO`s ugendu buL uIso know LIey
musL IeIp Lo sIupe IL. COs oILen begIn uIIgnIng
LIemseIves wILI LIe CEO und bourd members
weII beIore LukIng oIhce. DurIng LIe recruILIng
process, mosL COs we InLervIewed receIved
very expIIcIL guIdunce Irom LIem ubouL LIe Issues
LIey consIdered ImporLunL, us weII us wIere
Exhibit 2 Many CFOs received very explicit guidance from their CEOs
on the key issues of concern.
What was expected of CFOs
Being an active member of
senior-management team
Contributing to companys
performance
Improving quality of nance
organization
Challenging companys strategy
Bringing in a capital markets
perspective
Other
88
40
7
3
84
34
68
74
52
29
29
14
70
80
Ensuring efciency of nance
organization
By CEO (n = 128)
By nance staff (n = 35)
% of responses
1
from respondents who said CEO and nancial staff
gave explicit guidance on expectations,
n = 163
1
RespondenLs couId seIecL more LIun 1 unswer.
McKinsey on Finance
CFO 100 days survey
Exhibit 2 of 3
;
Excerpt from
Organizing for value
Number 28,
Summer 2008
Massimo Giordano and Felix Wenger
The CFO
LIe CO wouId Iuve Lo ussume u IeudersIIp roIe.
SImIIurIy, neurIy Iour-hILIs oI LIe COs In
our survey reporLed LIuL LIe CEO expIuIned wIuL
wus expecLed Irom LIem-purLIcuIurIy LIuL
LIey serve us ucLIve members oI LIe senIor-
munugemenL Leum, conLrIbuLe Lo LIe compuny`s
perIormunce, und muke LIe hnunce orgunI-
zuLIon eIhcIenL (ExIIbIL z). WIen one new CO
usked LIe CEO wIuL Ie expecLed uL LIe
one-yeur murk, LIe response wus, WIen you`re
ubIe Lo hnIsI my senLences, you`II know
you`re on LIe rIgIL Lruck.
BuIIdIng LIuL kInd oI uIIgnmenL Is u cIuIIenge
Ior COs, wIo musL Iuve u cerLuIn uILImuLe
Independence us LIe voIce oI LIe sIureIoIder. TIuL
meuns LIey musL ImmedIuLeIy begIn Lo sIupe
LIe CEO`s ugendu uround LIeIr own Iocus on vuIue
creuLIon. Among LIe COs we InLervIewed,
LIose wIo Iud conducLed u vuIue uudIL couId
ImmedIuLeIy pILcI LIeIr InsIgILs Lo LIe CEO
und LIe bourd-LIus guInIng credIbIIILy und sLurL-
Ing Lo sIupe LIe dIuIogue. n some cuses, IucLs
LIuL surIuced durIng LIe process enubIed COs Lo
cIuIIenge busIness unIL orLIodoxIes. WIuL`s
more, LIe CO Is In u unIque posILIon Lo puL
numbers uguInsL u compuny`s sLruLegIc opLIons
In u wuy LIuL Iends u sIurp edge Lo decIsIon
mukIng. TIe CO uL u IIgI-LecI compuny, Ior
exumpIe, creuLed u pIun LIuL IdenLIhed
severuI key Issues Ior LIe Iong-Lerm IeuILI oI
LIe busIness, IncIudIng Iow Iurge enLerprIses
couId use ILs producL more eIhcIenLIy.
TIIs CO LIen prodded suIes und servIce Lo
deveIop u new sLruLegy und Leum Lo drIve
LIe producL`s udopLIon.
To pIuy LIese roIes, u CO musL esLubIIsI
LrusL wILI LIe bourd und LIe CEO, uvoIdIng uny
uppeurunce oI conIcL wILI LIem wIIIe
cIuIIengIng LIeIr decIsIons und LIe compuny`s
dIrecLIon II necessury. MuInLuInIng LIe rIgIL
buIunce Is un urL, noL u scIence. As LIe CO uL u
IeudIng soILwure compuny LoId us, L`s Impor-
LunL Lo be uIwuys uIIgned wILI LIe CEO und uIso Lo
be ubIe Lo IucLuuIIy cuII LIe buIIs und sLrIkes
us you see LIem. WIen you cunnoL buIunce LIe
Lwo, you need Lo hnd u new roIe.
Strengthen the core
To guIn LIe LIme Ior ugendu-sIupIng prIorILIes,
COs musL Iuve u weII-IuncLIonIng hnunce group
beIInd LIem; oLIerwIse, LIey won`L Iuve LIe
credIbIIILy und Iurd duLu Lo muke LIe dIIhcuIL
One way companies can compensate for
the blunt tools of traditional planning is to take
a ner-grained perspective on businesses
within large divisions. By identifying and dening
smaller units built around activities that
create value by serving related customer needs,
executives can better assess and manage
performance by focusing on growth and value
creation. These units, which we call value
cells, offer managers a more detailed, more
tangible way of gauging business value
and economic activity, allow CEOs to spend
more time on in-depth strategy discus-
sions, and make possible more nely tuned
responses to the demands of balancing
growth and short-term earnings. In our
experience, a company of above $10 billion
market capitalization should probably
be managed at the level of 20 to 50 value
cells, rather than the more typical three
to ve divisions.
;6 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
urgumenLs. Muny new COs hnd LIuL dIspuruLe T
sysLems, IIgIIy munuuI processes, un unskIIIed
hnunce sLuII, or unwIeIdy orgunIzuLIonuI sLrucLures
Iumper LIeIr ubIIILy Lo do unyLIIng beyond
cIosIng LIe quurLer on LIme. n order Lo sLrengLIen
LIe core Leum, durIng LIe hrsL Iundred duys
ubouL LIree-quurLers oI LIe new COs we
surveyed InILIuLed (or deveIoped u pIun Lo InILIuLe)
IundumenLuI cIunges In LIe IuncLIon`s core
ucLIvILIes (ExIIbIL ).
SeveruI oI our COs IuuncIed u rIgorous Iook
uL LIe hnunce orgunIzuLIon und operuLIons LIey
Iud jusL Luken over, und muny experIenced
COs suId LIey wIsIed LIey Iud done so. n LIese
revIews, LIe COs ussessed LIe reporLIng
sLrucLure; evuIuuLed LIe hL und cupubIIILIes oI LIe
hnunce execuLIves LIey Iud InIerILed; vuII-
duLed LIe hnunce orgunIzuLIon`s cosL bencImurks;
und IdenLIhed uny gups In LIe eIIecLIveness or
eIhcIency oI key sysLems, processes, und reporLs.
TIe resuILs oI sucI u revIew cun IeIp COs
guuge Iow mucI energy LIey wIII need Lo InvesL In
LIe hnunce orgunIzuLIon durIng LIeIr InILIuI
6 Lo 1z monLIs In oIhce-und Lo hx uny probIems
LIey hnd.
TrunsILIons oIIer u rure opporLunILy: LIe
orgunIzuLIon Is usuuIIy open Lo cIunge. More LIun
IuII oI our respondenLs mude uL IeusL moderuLe
uILeruLIons In LIe core hnunce Leum eurIy In LIeIr
Lenure. As one CO oI u gIobuI soILwure com-
puny puL IL, I LIere Is u burnIng pIuLIorm,
LIen you need Lo hnd IL und LuckIe IL. I you know
you wIII need Lo muke peopIe cIunges, muke
LIem us IusL us you cun. WuILIng onIy geLs you InLo
more LroubIe.
Manage performance actively
COs cun pIuy u crILIcuI roIe In enIuncIng
LIe perIormunce dIuIogue oI LIe corporuLe cenLer,
LIe busIness unILs, und corporuLe IuncLIons.
TIey Iuve u number oI LooIs uL LIeIr dIsposuI,
IncIudIng dusIbourds, perIormunce LurgeLs,
enIunced pIunnIng processes, LIe corporuLe
revIew cuIendur, und even LIeIr own
Exhibit 3 New CFOs often initiate fundamental
changes to core activities.
1
RespondenLs couId seIecL more LIun 1 unswer; LIose wIo unswered none oI LIese ure noL sIown.
In which of the given areas did you initiate (or develop
a plan to initiate) fundamental changes during your rst
100 days as CFO?
Financial planning, budgeting, analysis 79
Management reporting,
performance management
73
Finance IT systems 34
Tax, group capital structure, treasury,
including risk management
32
53
Financial accounting, reporting
(including audit, compliance)
% of responses,
1
n = 164
McKinsey on Finance
CFO 100 days survey
Exhibit 3 of 3
;;
reIuLIonsIIps wILI LIe Ieuders oI busIness unILs
und IuncLIons.
Among LIe COs we InLervIewed, some use
LIese LooIs, us weII us IucLs und InsIgILs derIved
Irom LIe CO`s unIque uccess Lo InIormuLIon
ubouL LIe busIness, Lo cIuIIenge oLIer execuLIves.
A number oI InLervIewees Luke u dIIIerenL
upproucI, Iowever, expIoILIng wIuL LIey cuII LIe
rIyLIm oI LIe busIness by usIng LIe corporuLe-
pIunnIng cuIendur Lo sIupe LIe perIormunce
dIuIogue LIrougI dIscussIons, LIeIr own ugendus,
und meLrIcs. SLIII oLIer COs, we Iuve
observed, exerL Inuence LIrougI LIeIr personuI
credIbIIILy uL perIormunce revIews.
WIIIe no consensus emerged Irom our dIscus-
sIons, LIe more experIenced COs sLressed
LIe ImporLunce oI IeurnIng ubouL u compuny`s
currenL perIormunce dIuIogues eurIy on,
undersLundIng wIere ILs perIormunce musL be
Improved, und deveIopIng u Iong-Lerm
sLruLegy Lo Inuence eIIorLs Lo do so. SucI u
sLruLegy mIgIL use LIe CO`s ubIIILy Lo
enguge wILI oLIer senIor execuLIves, us weII us
cIunged sysLems und processes LIuL couId spur
perIormunce und creuLe uccounLubIIILy.
First steps
GIven LIe mugnILude oI wIuL COs muy
be requIred Lo do, IL Is no surprIse LIuL LIe hrsL
1oo Lo zoo duys cun be LuxIng. YeL LIose wIo
Iuve pussed LIrougI LIIs LrunsILIon suggesL
severuI useIuI LucLIcs. Some wouId be uppIIcubIe
Lo uny mujor corporuLe IeudersIIp roIe buL
ure neverLIeIess IIgIIy reIevunL Ior new COs-
In purLIcuIur, LIose wIo come Irom
IuncLIonuI roIes.
Get a mentor
AILIougI u mujorILy oI LIe COs we InLervIewed
suId LIuL LIeIr eurIy duys on LIe job were
suLIsIucLory, LIe LrunsILIon wusn`L wILIouL specIhc
cIuIIenges. A common compIuInL we Ieur ubouL
Is LIe Iuck oI menLors-un Issue LIuL uIso cume up
In our recenL survey resuILs, wIIcI sIowed LIuL
z percenL oI LIe respondIng COs dIdn`L Iuve one.
orLy-sIx percenL oI LIe respondenLs suId LIuL
LIe CEO Iud menLored LIem, buL LIe reIuLIonsIIp
uppeured Lo be quILe dIIIerenL Irom LIe LrudILIonuI
menLorsIIp modeI, becuuse muny COs IeIL
uncomIorLubIe LeIIIng LIe boss everyLIIng ubouL
LIe cIuIIenges LIey Iuced. As one CO puL
IL durIng un InLervIew, beIng u CO Is probubIy
one oI LIe IoneIIesL jobs ouL LIere. Muny oI
The CFO
;8 McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
LIe COs we spoke wILI menLIoned LIe vuIue
oI IuvIng one or Lwo menLors ouLsIde LIe compuny
Lo serve us u soundIng bourd. We uIso know
COs wIo Iuve joIned IIgI-vuIue roundLubIes
und oLIer sucI Iorums Lo buIId neLworks
und sIure Ideus.
Listen first . . . then act
GIven LIe decIInIng uveruge Lenure In oIhce
oI corporuLe Ieuders, und LIe IIgI Lurnover umong
COs In purLIcuIur, hnunce execuLIves
oILen IeeI pressure Lo muke LIeIr murk sooner
ruLIer LIun IuLer. TIIs pressure creuLes
u poLenLIuIIy unIeuILIy bIus Lowurd ucLIng wILI
IncompIeLe-or, worse, InuccuruLe-InIormuLIon.
WIIIe we beIIeve sLrongIy LIuL COs sIouId
be uggressIve und ucLIon orIenLed, LIey musL use
LIeIr energy und enLIusIusm eIIecLIveIy. As
one CO reecLed In IIndsIgIL, wouId Iuve
spenL even more LIme IIsLenIng und Iess
LIme doIng. PeopIe do unLIcIpuLe cIunge Irom
u new CO, buL LIey uIso respecL you more
II you Luke LIe LIme Lo IIsLen und Ieurn und geL
IL rIgIL wIen you ucL.
Make a few themes your priorityconsistently
SuppIemenL your duy-Lo-duy ucLIvILIes
wILI no more LIun LIree Lo Iour mujor cIunge
InILIuLIves, und Iocus on LIem consIsLenLIy.
To muke cIunge Iuppen, you wIII Iuve Lo repeuL
your messuge over und over-InLernuIIy, Lo LIe
hnunce sLuII, und exLernuIIy, Lo oLIer sLukeIoIders.
CommunIcuLe your cIunges by sLressIng broud
LIemes LIuL, over LIme, couId encompuss newIy
IdenLIhed Issues und ucLIons. One eIemenL
oI your ugendu, Ior exumpIe, mIgIL be LIe broud
LIeme oI ImprovIng LIe eIhcIency oI hnun-
cIuI operuLIons ruLIer LIun jusL LIe nurrow one
oI oIIsIorIng.
Invest time up front to gain credibility
GuInIng credIbIIILy eurIy on Is u common
cIuIIenge-purLIcuIurIy, uccordIng Lo our survey,
Ior u CO IIred Irom ouLsIde u compuny. n
some cuses, IL`s suIhcIenL Lo InvesL enougI LIme
Lo know LIe numbers coId, us weII us LIe
compuny`s producLs, murkeLs, und pIuns. n oLIer
cuses, guInIng credIbIIILy muy Iorce you Lo
udjusL your mInd-seL IundumenLuIIy.
TIe COs we InLervIewed LoId us LIuL IL`s Iurd
Lo wIn supporL und respecL Irom oLIer corporuLe
oIhcers wILIouL mukIng u conscIous eIIorL Lo
LIInk IIke u CO. CIeurIy, one wILI LIe menLuIILy
oI u Ieud conLroIIer, Iocused on compIIunce
und conLroI, Isn`L IIkeIy Lo muke LIe kInd oI rIsky
buL LIougILIuI decIsIons needed Lo IeIp
u compuny grow. CIuIIengIng u busIness pIun und
u sLruLegy Isn`L uIwuys ubouL reducIng InvesL-
menLs und squeezIng IncremenLuI murgIns. TIe
CO Ius un opporLunILy Lo uppIy u hnunce
Iens Lo munugemenL`s upproucI und Lo ensure LIuL
Inunce execuLIves oILen IeeI pressure Lo muke
LIeIr murk sooner ruLIer LIun IuLer. TIIs
pressure creuLes u poLenLIuIIy unIeuILIy bIus
Lowurd ucLIng wILI IncompIeLe-or, worse,
InuccuruLe-InIormuLIon.
;q
1
InuncIuI OIIIcers` Turnover, zoo; SLudy, RusseII
ReynoIds AssocIuLes.
z
We surveyed 16q currenL or Iormer COs ucross
IndusLrIes, geogrupIIes, revenue cuLegorIes, und ownersIIp
sLrucLures. or more oI our concIusIons, see TIe
CO`s IIrsL Iundred duys: A McKInsey GIobuI Survey,
mckInseyquurLerIy.com, December zoo;.
u compuny LIorougIIy exumInes uII possIbIe
wuys oI ucceIeruLIng und muxImIzIng LIe cupLure
oI vuIue.
As un IncreusIng number oI execuLIves become
new COs, LIeIr ubIIILy Lo guIn un undersLundIng
oI wIere vuIue Is creuLed und Lo deveIop
u sLruLegy Ior InuencIng boLI execuLIves und
ongoIng perIormunce munugemenL wIII
sIupe LIeIr IuLure IegucIes. WIIIe duy-Lo-duy
operuLIons cun quIckIy ubsorb LIe LIme oI
uny new CO, conLInued Iocus on LIese Issues und
LIe underIyIng quuIILy oI LIe hnunce operuLIon
dehnes worId cIuss COs.
The CFO
8o McKInsey on Inunce Anthology 2011
Viral Acharya is a professor of nance at New York
Universitys Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
Patrick Beitel (Patrick_Beitel@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in McKinseys Frankfurt ofce.
Nidhi Chadda is an alumnus of the New York ofce.
Bertil Chappuis (Bertil_Chappuis@McKinsey.com)
is a partner in the Silicon Valley ofce.
Richard Dobbs (Richard_Dobbs@McKinsey.com)
is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and
a partner in the Seoul ofce.
Bryan Fisher (Bryan_Fisher@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Houston ofce.
Massimo Giordano (Massimo_Giordano@
McKinsey.com) is a partner in the Milan ofce.
Marc Goedhart (Marc_Goedhart@McKinsey.com) is
a senior expert in the Amsterdam ofce.
Peter Haden (Peter_Haden@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Amsterdam ofce.
Neil Harper is an alumnus of the New York ofce.
Peggy Hsieh is an alumnus of the New York ofce.
Bill Huyett (Bill_Huyett@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Boston ofce.
Bin Jiang (Bin_Jiang@McKinsey.com) is
a consultant in the New York ofce.
Conor Kehoe (Conor_Kehoe@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the London ofce.
Aimee Kim (Aimee_Kim@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Seoul ofce.
Tim Koller (Tim_Koller@McKinsey.com) is a partner
in the New York ofce.
Ankush Kumar (Ankush_Kumar@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Houston ofce.
Eric Lamarre (Eric_Lamarre@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Montral ofce.
Nick Lawler is an alumnus of the New York ofce.
Rob McNish (Rob_McNish@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Washington, DC, ofce.
Jean-Hugues Monier (Jean-Hugues_Monier@
McKinsey.com) is a partner in the New York ofce.
Robert Palter (Robert_Palter@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Toronto ofce.
Martin Pergler (Martin_Pergler@McKinsey.com) is
a consultant in the Singapore ofce.
Herbert Pohl (Herbert_Pohl@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Dubai ofce.
S. R. Rajan is an alumnus of the New York ofce.
Werner Rehm (Werner_Rehm@McKinsey.com) is
a senior expert in the New York ofce.
Michael Reyner is an alumnus of the London ofce.
Paul Roche (Paul_Roche@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Silicon Valley ofce.
Michael Shelton is an alumnus of the
Chicago ofce.
Jonathan Shih is an alumnus of the New
York ofce.
Robert Uhlaner (Robert_Uhlaner@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the San Francisco ofce.
Felix Wenger (Felix_Wenger@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Zurich ofce.
David Wessels is an alumnus of the New
York ofce.
Andy West (Andy_West@McKinsey.com) is
a partner in the Boston ofce.
Florian Wolff is an alumnus of the Munich ofce.
Contributors
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