DAILY I FOREX REPORT 12TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES
US Dollar Plummets, Euro Breaks $1.30 As Bernanke Boosts S&P 500 US Dollar and Fed Policy - Perception vs. Reality

The US Dollar tumbled in overnight trade, losing as much as 1.5 percent on average against its top counterparts, as Asian markets responded to yesterdays dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The central bank chief pushed back against speculation about a near-term reduction of QE, reminding investors that the overall thrust of policy remains highly accommodative. Bernanke added that inflation and job growth trends signal that more Fed stimulus is needed.

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3150 TGT 1.3170/1.3190 SL 1.3120

Minutes from Junes FOMC policy meeting seem to illuminate the impetus behind the Fed Chairmans tone. Officials debated including specific language about the fate of the asset purchase program in the policy statement but ultimately felt it was too difficult to convey succinctly the desired information. As such, much of the discussion focused on how Bernanke ought to explain the central banks intentions in the press conference following the sit-down, with most participants stressing that he should: Make clear that any changes to the asset purchase program remained highly conditional on an ongoing assessment of the economic outlook. Strike a clear distinction between tapering and tightening, stressing that there is likely to be a significant time lag between the end of QE and an increase in the benchmark lending rate.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.50 TGT 98.30/98.10 SL 98.80

In retrospect, those FOMC members who feared that stating an intention to slow the pace of asset purchases...might be misinterpreted asthe initial step toward exit from the [Feds] highly accommodative policy stance proved correct.Indeed, the mass liquidation of QE-linked bets in the aftermath of Junes FOMC meeting suggests the markets interpreted the Feds posture as having shifted significantly toward the hawkish side of the spectrum. With that in mind, todays comments from Mr Bernanke represent not an about-face in the Feds thinking but an attempt to realign the markets perceptions. The reality of the Feds intentions has not changed, but volatility in asset prices since Bernanke spoke shows that the markets perception of those intentions is undergoing significant reassessment. More of the same seems likely to ahead. European shares are on racing higher in early morning trade and S&P 500 futures are up by nearly a full percentage point as traders cheer the prospect of longer-lasting Fed support. A quiet economic cal

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5175 TGT 1.5195/1.5215 SL 1.5145

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 40 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Jul 7

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

23:50

JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (MAY) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUN) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAY) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN) NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUN) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (JUN) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUN) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN) CHF Unemployment Rate (JUN) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAY) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAY) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAY) CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)

Medium

-906.7B

-902.1B

-818.8B

23:50

Low

623.3B

600.0B

852.7B

23:50

Low

2.2%

2.3%

2.1%

23:50

Low

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

23:50

Low

58.1%

91.6%

100.8%

23:50

Low

540.7B

600.0B

750.0B

Mon Jul 8

01:30

Low

-1.8%

-2.5%

02:35

Low

0.0%

7.5%

02:35

Low

0.0%

0.7%

02:35

Low

3685.8

3686.9

04:30

Medium

-8.0%

-9.0%

05:00

Medium

53.0

55.5

55.7

05:00

Medium

53.6

55.7

56.2

05:45

Medium

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

05:45

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

06:00

Medium

13.1B

17.8B

18.0B

06:00

Low

11.2B

14.8B

16.7B

06:00

Low

-2.4%

0.1%

1.4%

06:00

Low

1.7%

0.0%

1.2%

07:15

Medium

3.0%

1.4%

1.7%

08:30

Medium

-12.6

-11.4

-11.6

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks in Brussels IMF Releases EuroArea Article IV Statement CAD Bank of Canda Senior Loan Officer Survey (2Q) CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (2Q) USD Consumer Credit (MAY) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q) NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUN) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN) GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUN) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (JUN) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUN) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUN) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUN) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUN) AUD NAB Business Conditions (JUN) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAY)

Medium

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.9%

10:00

Low

-1.0%

-0.5%

2.0%

12:30

Low

-5.0%

10.5%

13:00

High

13:00

Medium

13:00

Medium

14:30

Medium

-5.0

-5.8

14:30

Medium

30

24

19:00

Medium

$12.500B

$11.058B

21:00

Low

22:00

Medium

23

22:45

Medium

0.6%

0.5%

22:45

Medium

0.6%

23:01

Medium

8%

5%

23:01

Low

1.9%

1.8%

23:50

Low

3.4%

3.4%

23:50

Low

2.9%

2.8%

Tue Jul 9

00:00

Low

7.1%

01:30

High

2.5%

2.1%

01:30

High

-2.6%

-2.9%

01:30

Medium

-1

01:30

Low

-4

06:00

Medium

-7.4%

07:15

Medium

3.3%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAY) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN) CAD Housing Starts (JUN) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUN) USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAY) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JUN) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (JUN) CNY New Yuan Loans (JUN) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JUN) CNY Aggregate Financing (JUN) CNY Exports (YoY)% (JUN) CNY Foreign Reserves (JUN) CNY Imports (YoY)% (JUN) CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (JUN) CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (JUN) CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (JUN) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL)

Medium

-1.5%

-0.6%

08:30

Medium

-1.5%

-0.5%

08:30

Medium

-2600

-2579

08:30

Medium

-3480

-3414

08:30

Medium

-8485

-8224

08:30

Low

0.2%

0.1%

08:30

Low

0.4%

-0.2%

11:30

Low

94.7

94.4

12:15

Medium

188.0K

200.2K

14:00

High

0.6%

14:00

Low

3757

23:50

Medium

0.8%

0.0%

23:50

Low

0.0%

0.1%

23:50

Low

1.2%

0.6%

Wed Jul 10

High

800.0B

667.4B

Medium

$27.80B

$20.43B

Low

1400.0B

1190.0B

Low

3.9%

1.0%

Low

$3485.0B

$3440.0B

Low

6.2%

-0.3%

Low

10.5%

10.8%

Low

10.8%

11.3%

Low

15.2%

15.8%

00:30

Medium

4.7%

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUN F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN F) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 5) USD Wholesale Inventories (MAY) USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 5) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 5) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 5) USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 5) USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jun 18-19 FOMC Meeting USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Economic Policy in Boston NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (JUN) NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JUN) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5) JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAY) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5)

Low

102.2

05:00

Low

45.7

06:00

High

1.9%

1.9%

06:00

High

1.8%

1.8%

06:00

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

06:00

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

11:00

Low

-11.7%

14:00

Low

0.3%

0.2%

14:00

Low

0.6%

0.5%

14:30

Low

-10347K

14:30

Low

-2418K

14:30

Low

-1719K

14:30

Low

2.0%

18:00
LIVE

High

20:10

High

22:00

Low

4.7%

22:30

Medium

59.2

22:45

Low

0.3%

23:50

Medium

-965.9B

23:50

Medium

-38.9B

23:50

Medium

2.8%

-1.1%

23:50

Low

261.8B

23:50

Low

479.7B

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JUL 11) JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JUL 11)

Low

1.7%

-8.8%

Thu Jul 11

High

High

Medium

270T

01:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL) AUD Employment Change (JUN) AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN) AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUN) AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUN) AUD Participation Rate (JUN) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (JUN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN) JPY Kuroda Holds Post-Meeting Press Conference EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAY) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 6) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY) USD Continuing Claims (JUN 29) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 5) USD Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Regulation to Senate Banking USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)

Medium

2.3%

01:30
LIVE

High

0.0K

1.1K

01:30
LIVE

High

5.6%

5.5%

01:30

Medium

-5.3K

01:30

Low

6.4K

01:30

Low

65.2%

65.2%

02:00

Low

8.33

06:00

Low

-0.4%

06:00

Low

-0.1%

06:30

High

08:00

High

12:30

Medium

2.0%

12:30

Medium

340K

343K

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Low

2958K

2933K

12:30

Low

0.0%

-0.6%

12:30

Low

0.5%

-1.9%

14:30

Low

72

15:00

Low

18:00

Medium

$40.0B

Fri Jul 12

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for July USD Fed's Plosser and Bullard Speak in Wyoming 01:30 AUD Home Loans (MAY) AUD Investment Lending (MAY) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAY) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAY) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAY) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY F) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) JPY Construction Output (YoY) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JUN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JUN) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JUN) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P) USD Fed's Williams Presents a Monetary Policy Paper in Vancouver

High

Low

Medium

2.2%

0.8%

01:30

Low

1.1%

01:30

Low

$A49.4B

01:30

Low

$A21.6B

01:30

Low

-0.9%

03:00

Low

69.1%

04:30

Medium

-1.0%

04:30

Low

1.6%

04:30

Low

2.0%

08:30

Low

-1.1%

09:00

Medium

-1.4%

-0.6%

09:00

Low

-0.3%

0.4%

12:30

Medium

1.6%

1.7%

12:30

Medium

2.1%

1.7%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

13:00

Low

1.1%

13:00

Low

2.0%

13:00

Low

155.39

13:55
LIVE

High

85.0

84.1

21:15

Low

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