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Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open on a negative note tracking extremely weak
opening to SGX Nifty following RBIs move to increase short-term borrowing costs
in the money markets to prevent speculation in the currency market.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.4
76 20,034
Nifty
0.4
22
6,031
US markets moved modestly higher over the course of the trading day on Monday,
adding to the strong gains posted last week. The strength that emerged on Wall
Street came following the release of a mixed batch of economic data, including a
report from the Commerce Department showing weaker than expected retail sales
growth. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales increased by 0.4% in
June against consensus estimates of 0.8%. Separately, the New York Federal
Reserve released a report showing that conditions for New York manufacturers
have continued to improve modestly in July (general business conditions index rose
to 9.5 in July from 7.8 in June).
MID CAP
0.9
54
6,103
SMALL CAP
0.8
46
5,783
BSE HC
0.5
43
9,429
BSE PSU
0.0
5,967
BANKEX
0.7
96 13,472
AUTO
0.6
63 10,635
METAL
0.5
36
7,783
0.7
63
8,863
Meanwhile, Indian markets rose modestly on Monday, with firm global cues and
lower than forecasted inflation data underpinning sentiments. Going ahead,
trading on Tuesday may be impacted by a release of another batch of economic
data, including reports on consumer prices, industrial production, and homebuilder
confidence.
BSE IT
(0.0)
(2)
6,824
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,997/ 6,017 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,110 20,186 / 6,052 6,074 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,997 / 6,017 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,921 19,807/ 5,995 5,959 levels.
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
19,807
5,959
19,921
5,995
19,997
6,017
20,110
6,052
20,186
6,074
News Analysis
Sales
3,823
465
Net
(1,313)
5
MTD
(290)
(751)
YTD
71,016
(12,928)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
Stock Futures
1,675
1,765
1,889
1,528
(215)
237
14,145
28,924
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
HDIL
Company
42
7.9
Gitanjali Gems
Muthoot Fin
102
7.4
MMTC
282
6.5
TTK Prestige
Idea Cellular
Wockhardt
www.angelbroking.com
0.2
3,607
FTSE
0.6
41
6,586
Nikkei
0.2
34 14,506
Hang Sang
0.1
26 21,303
Straits Times
0.0
3,237
Shanghai Com
1.0
20
2,059
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.3
0.1
$46.3
INFY
20 15,484
WIT
1.5
0.1
$8.0
IBN
(1.1)
(0.4)
$38.0
HDB
(0.5)
(0.2)
$37.2
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,061
596
Declines
1,249
710
140
87
Volumes (` cr)
Company
NASDAQ
Unchanged
0.1
Advances / Declines
` cr
FII
MFs
Dow Jones
Indian ADR
Indices
NIFTY
Global Indices
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
135
(5.0)
59
(4.9)
3,646
(4.8)
154
5.7
Financial Tech
733
(4.1)
1,007
5.4
United Phos
139
(3.1)
BSE
1,558
NSE
8,647
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
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Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Sr. No
Bank of Baroda
12
Bank of India
13
Canara Bank
Central Bank of
India
Indian
Overseas
Bank
State Bank of India
The Federal Bank
Ltd.
14
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Andhra Bank
Jammu & Kashmir
Bank Ltd.
Punjab and Sind
Bank
Punjab
National
Bank
Sr. No
Penalty
(in `cr)
2.5
2.5
2
of
15
16
Vijaya Bank
17
18
2.5
19
Kotak
Ltd.
2.5
20
2.5
21
Development
Bank Ltd.
2.5
22
Mahindra
1.5
Bank
Credit
1.5
0.5
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
demand and increase in competitive activity. We believe that the productions cuts
announced by the company were essential given that the utility vehicle sales of the
company have slowed down in 1QFY2014. The temporary shutdown is expected
to enable the company to align the production in line with the market demand and
avoid unnecessary build up of inventory. We remain positive on MM given that the
tractor sales have registered a strong growth of ~25% in 1QFY2014 backed by
expectations of normal monsoon and better prospects for kharif crop. We expect
the growth in the tractor segment to remain strong in FY2014 and expect the
tractor segment to register a growth of ~10% and thereby offsetting the weakness
in the automotive segment to some extent. At `928, the stock is trading at 13.2x
FY2015 earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price
of `1,103.
Result Review
Exide Industries (CMP: `122/ TP: `141/ Upside: 14%)
Exide Industries (EXID) reported better-than-expected 1QFY2014 performance
driven by sharp expansion in operating margins led by continued growth in the
automotive replacement battery segment and also due to ~10% qoq decline in
lead prices. For 1QFY2014, top-line grew broadly in-line with our estimates and
stood at `1,627cr (up 4.8% yoy and 5.6% qoq) led by continued traction in the
automotive replacement battery segment. However, subdued OEM demand from
the two and four wheeler manufacturers impacted the overall top-line growth. The
growth in the industrial and home UPS battery segments too remained sluggish
during the quarter. On the operating front, EBITDA margins improved by 116bp
yoy (287bp qoq) to 16.1%, which was significantly ahead of our estimates of
13.6%. This was primarily on account of ~10% qoq decline in lead prices which
resulted in a 80bp yoy (277bp qoq) savings on the raw-material front.
Additionally, strong performance by the higher margin automotive replacement
segment too attributed to the strong margin performance. Led by a strong
operating performance, net profit posted a better-than-expected growth of 4.6%
yoy (8.6% qoq) to `159cr. At `122, the stock is trading at 13.5x FY2015 earnings.
We shall revise our estimates and release a detailed result note post our
interaction with the management during the earnings conference call. Until then,
we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `141.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
7,044 14.2
662
7.8
18.0
15.7
2.7
8.3
1.2
FY2015E
8,052 14.5
771
9.1
18.1
13.5
2.3
6.8
1.0
Result Preview
Ashok Leyland (CMP: `17/ TP: `27/ Upside: 59%)
Ashok Leyland (AL) is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect
Ashok Leylands (AL) top-line to register an ~20% yoy decline in net sales to
`2,357cr following an ~21% yoy drop in volumes. On the operating front, we
expect EBITDA margins to witness a sharp contraction of ~350bp yoy to 4.5% for
the quarter due to adverse product-mix and lower utilization levels. As a result,
bottom-line is expected to register a loss of `74cr. At `17, the stock is trading at
7.8x FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have a Buy rating on the stock with a target
price of `27.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
14,038
7.6
FY2015E
16,442
8.7
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
278 1.1
6.2
16.7
1.4
5.3
0.4
594 2.2
12.5
7.8
1.3
3.7
0.3
(` cr)
(`)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,405
2,941
(18)
3,648
(34)
93
241
(61)
198
(53)
(62)
67
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margins (%)
Net Profit
5
(192)
150
(141)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,821
1,417
28
1,890
(4)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
466
427
555
(16)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
475
282
68
436
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
17,628
14,869
19
16,425
Net profit
3,744
3,281
14
3,597
Net profit
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Corporate News
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Ashok Leyland
HDFC Bank
TCS, Axis Bank, Kotak Mah. Bank, IDBI Bank, D B Corp, Rallis, Mindtree, Infotech Enterprises, Honeywell Automation
HDFC, Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank, CRISIL, UCO Bank, Hexaware, NIIT
HT Media
Tata Sponge
Nestle, CESC
Force Motors
Time
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.70
3.00
2:30PM
Jun F
1.60
1.60
6:00PM
US
% Change
Jun
0.10
0.30
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Jun
0.04
0.30
2:00PM
UK
% Change
Jun
(8.60)
(8.00)
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
914.00
960.00
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
985.00
1,000.00
6:00PM
US
Thousands
Jul 13
360.00
341.00
7:30PM
US
Million
Jun
5.18
5.27
7:30PM
Value
Jul A
(18.80)
--
1:00PM
Value
Jul A
50.40
--
1:00PM
Value
Jul A
48.60
--
7:30PM
US
Thousands
Jun
476.00
484.00
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q A
0.30
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
7.25
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
4.00
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
6.25
--
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
81.40
--
1:25PM
Thousands
Jul
(12.00)
--
6:00PM
US
% Change
2Q A
1.80
--
11:30PM
US
Jul 31
0.25
--
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
9.2
6.0
4.0
0.6
Apr-13
Feb-13
(%)
Mfg. PMI
58.0
8.0
(1.6)
Jan-13
Jun-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
(4.0)
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
May-13
(0.1)
(2.0)
Dec-12
4.7 4.8
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
56.0
5.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
54.0
52.0
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
48.0
Mar-12
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
50.0
Oct-12
9.0
1.9
2.0
Nov-12
6.0
3.4
2.5
2.0
Oct-12
6.5
Mar-13
7.5
Sep-12
7.7
Aug-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
Jul-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
(%)
9.00
15.0
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
0.0
5.00
4.00
www.angelbroking.com
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
(15.0)
Jul-12
3.00
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Neutral
156
3,035
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
20.3
17.5
4.2
3.6
22.2
21.9
1.8
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
139
232
6,150
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
6.8
6.0
1.1
1.0
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Accumulate
256
285
4,375
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.9
12.6
3.3
2.7
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
67
3,392
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
5.2
4.5
0.9
0.7
17.5
17.3
0.4
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
17
27
4,643
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
16.7
7.8
1.4
1.3
6.2
12.5
0.4
0.3
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
220
332
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
12.7
8.1
1.2
1.1
9.5
14.0
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,901
2,096
55,019
23,005
26,460
18.0
18.5
118.8
139.7
16.0
13.6
5.8
4.6
40.4
37.7
2.0
1.7
Bharat Forge
Neutral
226
5,270
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.6
13.1
2.0
1.8
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Accumulate
8,599
9,213
26,999
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
23.0
19.6
4.1
3.5
18.0
17.9
2.4
2.0
CEAT
Buy
113
170
386
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.8
2.3
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Buy
122
141
10,408
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
15.6
13.4
2.7
2.3
18.1
18.2
1.2
1.0
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,447
2,405
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.4
13.2
2.4
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,727
1,820
34,484
25,298
27,665
14.1
13.7
110.3
140.0
15.7
12.3
5.7
4.5
39.9
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
107
154
438
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
2.8
2.4
0.4
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
928
1,103
57,149
45,254
51,197
11.4
11.7
61.2
70.2
15.2
13.2
3.2
2.7
22.7
21.9
1.0
0.9
1,448
1,822
43,728
47,923
55,002
11.2
10.9
106.6
121.4
13.6
11.9
2.0
1.8
16.1
15.8
0.7
0.6
218
12,795
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
17.4
14.7
4.3
3.4
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Buy
22
27
131
1,426
1,624
10.0
9.9
4.9
6.8
4.5
3.2
0.4
0.4
10.0
12.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
289
347
13.3
13.6
36.2
41.5
8.0
7.0
1.8
1.5
24.6
23.2
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
32
35
1,542
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
5.6
1.1
1.0
18.1
18.5
0.1
0.1
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
602
461
12,762
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
52.3
35.5
4.8
4.6
9.3
13.1
1.6
1.3
BGR Energy
Buy
121
140
876
3,756
4,569
11.4
9.7
21.7
24.1
5.6
5.0
0.7
0.6
22.3
20.3
0.5
0.5
BHEL
Neutral
186
45,562
44,054
39,326
16.8
15.1
20.6
16.1
9.0
11.6
2.0
1.8
23.5
16.1
0.9
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
158
230
1,417
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
16.9
13.4
2.8
2.4
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
89
117
5,706
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
13.4
10.0
1.5
1.3
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
20
164
3,360
3,597
9.7
9.8
7.3
10.2
2.7
2.0
0.6
0.5
8.8
11.4
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
35
49
901
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
5.8
4.1
0.7
0.6
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
601
7,165
5,780
6,430
9.5
9.6
29.8
33.0
20.2
18.2
3.4
3.0
17.9
17.4
1.0
0.9
1,241
1,361
23,302
11,820
13,254
19.3
20.9
74.9
93.1
16.6
13.3
2.9
2.6
18.1
20.3
1.7
1.4
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
197
30,462
10,171
11,762
23.5
24.6
10.2
12.2
19.3
16.2
3.2
2.9
17.1
18.7
2.5
2.0
India Cements
Neutral
57
1,740
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
6.4
5.2
0.5
0.5
7.7
9.1
0.7
0.6
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
83
143
977
2,247
2,742
21.0
23.1
17.8
21.8
4.7
3.8
0.7
0.6
15.5
16.4
0.3
0.8
Madras Cements
Neutral
213
5,059
4,234
4,788
23.9
24.0
18.5
22.8
11.5
9.3
1.8
1.6
17.2
18.2
1.6
1.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,510
15,713
6,607
7,520
27.5
26.7
322.8
374.3
14.0
12.1
3.5
2.8
27.8
25.6
1.7
1.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,944
53,306
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
18.3
16.2
3.0
2.6
17.7
17.3
2.5
2.2
59
84
933
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
6.0
7.4
9.9
8.0
0.9
0.9
10.5
10.8
1.9
1.8
171
1,715
1,824
2.4
6.2
(2.9)
(0.4)
(3.2)
(25.7)
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
105
157
3,485
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
6.7
6.3
1.0
0.9
15.2
14.5
3.3
3.5
ITNL
Buy
151
230
2,942
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.1
4.7
0.7
0.6
14.9
14.2
2.5
2.5
IVRCL Infra
Buy
17
29
506
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
11.4
9.0
0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
55
90
12,116
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
21.6
19.1
0.9
0.9
4.2
4.7
2.6
2.6
Buy
1,006
1,180
93,029
68,946
78,040
10.5
10.5
51.7
58.6
19.5
17.2
2.9
2.6
15.5
15.6
1.5
1.3
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
29
42
747
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
10.9
8.0
0.3
0.3
2.7
3.6
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
33
1,103
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
65.4
35.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
90
139
1,358
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
15.3
13.5
1.5
1.4
10.2
10.5
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
81
131
400
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
6.8
4.3
0.3
0.3
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
25
41
187
2,146
2,339
13.7
13.8
11.0
11.5
2.3
2.2
0.2
0.2
9.3
9.0
0.6
0.6
Allahabad Bank
Buy
92
123
4,608
6,705
7,535
2.5
2.5
27.6
33.2
3.3
2.8
0.5
0.4
12.5
13.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
83
4,619
5,195
5,834
2.7
2.7
19.2
23.1
4.3
3.6
0.6
0.5
12.2
13.3
Axis Bank
Buy
1,309
1,778
61,402
19,237
23,261
3.2
3.2
133.8
161.5
9.8
8.1
1.6
1.4
17.6
18.5
Bank of Baroda
Buy
591
761
24,877
16,287
18,707
2.2
2.3
120.6
144.6
4.9
4.1
0.7
0.6
15.0
16.0
Bank of India
Buy
232
270
13,813
14,459
16,176
2.3
2.2
55.2
68.2
4.2
3.4
0.6
0.5
13.7
15.1
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
51
61
3,340
4,291
4,724
3.0
3.0
12.1
12.9
4.2
3.9
0.6
0.6
16.2
15.3
Canara Bank
Buy
361
423
15,997
12,045
13,495
2.1
2.2
76.7
86.4
4.7
4.2
0.7
0.6
14.1
14.2
Central Bank
Accumulate
64
69
6,696
8,406
9,546
2.5
2.5
12.6
18.7
5.1
3.4
0.6
0.6
10.6
14.3
Corporation Bank
Buy
344
436
5,257
5,554
6,156
2.0
2.0
94.9
104.9
3.6
3.3
0.5
0.5
14.3
14.2
Dena Bank
Accumulate
71
79
2,499
3,255
3,623
2.3
2.4
22.0
24.9
3.2
2.9
0.5
0.4
14.7
14.7
Federal Bank
Accumulate
400
455
6,832
2,802
3,275
2.9
2.9
49.8
56.6
8.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.1
Financials
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Accumulate
849
904
132,007
8,573
10,142
3.6
3.6
37.0
43.6
23.0
19.5
4.7
4.2
30.0
30.3
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
695
752
166,053
27,560
33,766
4.6
4.6
36.3
45.1
19.1
15.4
3.9
3.2
21.9
22.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,063
1,454
122,666
26,119
30,474
3.1
3.2
86.2
99.5
12.3
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.7
16.2
IDBI Bank
Accumulate
75
80
9,956
9,416
10,392
2.0
2.0
19.8
22.8
3.8
3.3
0.5
0.4
12.9
13.5
Indian Bank
Buy
110
141
4,738
6,077
6,845
2.9
3.0
35.2
41.0
3.1
2.7
0.4
0.4
14.1
14.8
IOB
Neutral
51
4,676
8,028
9,204
2.4
2.6
12.5
19.7
4.0
2.6
0.4
0.3
9.1
13.1
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,278
6,196
3,101
3,427
3.6
3.6
215.5
210.3
5.9
6.1
1.1
1.0
19.9
16.9
Buy
238
298
11,993
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
9.4
8.1
1.7
1.4
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Buy
201
239
5,870
6,790
7,676
2.6
2.7
55.7
62.3
3.6
3.2
0.5
0.4
12.8
12.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
662
883
23,393
20,914
23,879
3.3
3.4
152.4
176.2
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
16.2
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Buy
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
UCO Bank
Reduce
Union Bank
United Bank
23
3,076
1,795
2,054
2.8
2.8
4.0
4.3
5.8
5.3
1.0
0.9
17.2
16.5
1,916
2,518
131,068
66,417
76,734
3.0
3.0
227.4
284.8
8.4
6.7
1.2
1.1
15.4
17.1
119
136
7,178
7,125
8,188
2.6
2.6
27.4
27.9
4.4
4.3
0.7
0.6
16.2
14.6
70
63
5,246
6,545
6,859
2.7
2.6
14.8
15.7
4.7
4.4
0.9
0.7
14.4
13.6
Buy
180
243
10,760
11,101
12,543
2.6
2.6
39.3
47.4
4.6
3.8
0.6
0.6
14.1
15.2
Buy
47
58
1,754
3,386
3,884
2.3
2.5
12.4
20.0
3.8
2.3
0.4
0.4
10.0
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
48
2,359
2,714
3,046
1.9
2.0
9.2
10.8
5.2
4.4
0.6
0.5
10.7
11.5
Yes Bank
Neutral
501
18,004
4,451
5,526
2.8
2.8
43.0
49.7
11.6
10.1
2.5
2.1
23.9
22.8
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,814
46,171
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
34.0
29.6
10.8
8.5
35.4
32.2
3.6
3.0
Britannia
Neutral
681
8,150
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
21.3
25.5
32.0
26.7
10.4
8.3
35.7
34.6
1.3
1.1
Colgate
Neutral
1,453
19,758
3,588
4,130
20.5
20.9
44.2
51.8
32.9
28.1
32.0
23.3
108.6
96.2
5.3
4.6
Dabur India
Neutral
157
27,340
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
29.2
24.9
11.4
8.8
41.5
40.1
3.8
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,890
20,566
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
40.0
32.9
12.5
10.0
34.1
33.7
5.2
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
869
29,573
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
34.6
29.3
7.5
6.2
24.9
24.2
3.9
3.3
HUL
Neutral
614
132,733
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
35.9
33.4
34.5
25.0
113.4
87.0
4.4
3.9
ITC
Neutral
352
278,330
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
31.2
26.4
10.3
8.3
36.1
34.9
7.8
6.6
Marico
Neutral
218
14,038
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
30.0
25.1
5.9
4.8
21.4
21.0
2.7
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
5,565
53,652
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
43.7
36.1
21.8
15.8
57.7
50.7
5.7
4.9
Tata Global
Neutral
154
9,526
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
19.7
18.0
2.4
2.3
9.5
9.7
1.2
1.0
FMCG
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
874
60,906
29,424
32,837
22.6
22.0
59.5
63.3
14.7
13.8
3.6
3.0
24.6
21.7
1.9
1.6
99
105
2,965
2,158
2,374
19.6
19.8
10.7
11.7
9.3
8.5
2.1
1.8
23.0
22.3
1.2
1.1
IT
HCL Tech^
Neutral
Hexaware*
Accumulate
Infosys
Neutral
2,742
157,447
45,153
48,993
27.6
26.8
170.7
187.5
16.1
14.6
3.3
2.9
20.8
19.5
2.9
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
182
2,033
2,037
2,254
17.9
17.7
21.2
22.6
8.6
8.1
1.3
1.1
15.2
14.1
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Accumulate
127
144
2,461
2,614
2,923
17.2
16.8
13.2
14.4
9.7
8.8
1.7
1.4
18.5
16.7
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
915
3,803
2,707
2,978
20.3
20.2
87.4
97.0
10.5
9.4
2.2
1.8
21.8
19.5
1.1
0.9
Mphasis&
Neutral
409
8,595
6,372
6,852
18.0
18.2
38.0
43.5
10.8
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.3
14.2
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
19
30
315
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.5
3.6
0.5
0.4
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
522
565
2,088
1,505
1,677
25.9
26.2
53.6
59.7
9.7
8.8
1.7
1.5
17.7
16.7
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,641
321,258
74,795
84,926
28.8
28.7
82.2
91.5
20.0
18.0
6.2
5.1
30.8
28.1
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,112
1,250
25,818
8,102
8,709
19.7
19.2
93.7
101.5
11.9
11.0
2.2
1.8
21.2
18.9
3.2
2.9
Wipro
Neutral
382
94,129
41,659
45,137
21.2
21.4
27.7
29.9
13.8
12.8
2.8
2.4
20.5
19.0
1.7
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
236
290
4,325
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
16.6
14.1
3.6
3.0
23.4
23.4
2.4
2.1
HT Media
Buy
97
117
2,279
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
11.7
10.7
1.3
1.2
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
86
107
2,840
1,664
1,825
20.9
23.0
6.4
7.8
13.3
11.0
2.7
2.4
21.0
23.1
1.8
1.6
PVR
Neutral
334
1,323
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
19.4
15.5
1.9
1.8
10.3
12.0
1.4
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
419
16,506
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
20.9
18.0
5.2
4.5
26.4
27.3
6.9
6.0
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
464
10,519
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
7.0
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Buy
293
345
184,754
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.3
9.5
2.8
2.4
37.6
36.2
1.7
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
13
18
426
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
10.4
5.0
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.5
0.1
GMDC
Buy
108
155
3,449
1,920
2,239
53.2
52.9
21.6
25.0
5.0
4.3
1.1
0.9
25.1
23.8
1.3
0.9
Hind. Zinc
Buy
107
145
45,105
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
6.7
6.1
1.2
1.0
19.4
18.4
1.4
0.9
Hindalco
Neutral
105
20,180
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
7.9
7.0
0.6
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
591
14,275
47,613
48,385
17.4
18.8
81.8
109.6
7.2
5.4
0.8
0.7
11.1
13.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Buy
203
248
3,417
1,010
1,046
46.5
47.6
26.8
28.8
7.6
7.1
1.1
1.0
15.4
14.7
1.0
0.7
Monnet Ispat
Buy
123
193
786
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.7
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.3
9.9
1.4
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Buy
SAIL
Neutral
Media
www.angelbroking.com
31
7,861
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
12.0
11.6
0.6
0.6
5.5
5.5
0.5
0.5
108
140
42,918
10,610
11,400
66.3
64.2
15.6
16.1
7.0
6.7
1.4
1.3
21.3
19.9
1.9
1.8
48
19,990
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
9.3
6.8
0.5
0.5
5.2
6.8
0.7
0.6
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Accumulate
156
166
13,575
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.2
5.2
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.4
3.7
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
91
100
30,649
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
5.0
4.5
0.5
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.6
0.6
Tata Steel
Buy
257
378
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
8.3
5.4
0.8
0.7
9.6
13.4
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
97
153
347
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.1
2.7
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
31
40
410
2,615
2,776
12.1
12.0
9.8
10.4
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.5
0.4
0.4
Buy
74
102
242
2,344
2,509
14.9
15.4
38.7
47.0
1.9
1.6
0.2
0.2
12.3
12.9
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Accumulate
303
345
57,796
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.7
6.1
0.9
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.2
1.8
GAIL
Neutral
323
41,010
52,102
52,876
15.7
16.1
34.1
35.7
9.5
9.1
1.5
1.3
16.4
15.3
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
296
387
36.3
38.3
34.7
41.9
8.5
7.1
1.5
1.3
18.3
19.5
1.2
0.9
Reliance Industries
Neutral
896
9.4
8.6
75.0
76.4
11.9
11.7
1.3
1.2
12.4
11.4
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
198
2,544
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
8.4
7.7
2.3
2.0
29.6
28.2
0.6
0.5
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
294
4,110
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.7
30.4
11.0
9.7
2.3
1.9
22.7
21.8
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
132
167
9,904
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
8.8
7.9
1.9
1.6
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
Neutral
60
3,348
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.9
5.3
1.0
0.8
17.3
16.8
Alembic Pharma
Reduce
156
139
2,939
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
14.6
11.2
4.6
3.4
35.0
34.7
1.8
1.5
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
190
271
5,532
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
11.0
9.2
1.8
1.5
19.5
18.9
1.3
1.1
Aventis*
Neutral
2,445
5,631
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
26.5
24.7
3.7
3.7
15.7
14.8
3.0
2.4
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
778
929
15,919
7,280
8,640
15.5
15.7
38.3
46.5
20.3
16.7
4.4
3.6
23.5
23.5
2.5
2.1
Cipla
Buy
408
477
32,755
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
19.4
17.1
3.1
2.7
17.2
16.8
3.3
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
2,354
2,535
40,016
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
21.0
18.6
4.5
3.7
23.5
21.8
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Buy
64
168
516
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
15.0
16.8
4.3
3.8
0.5
0.4
11.0
11.2
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,571
21,775
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
33.6
30.9
10.1
9.1
31.1
31.0
6.8
6.1
Indoco Remedies
Accumulate
70
78
646
760
922
15.3
15.3
6.1
7.8
11.5
9.0
1.4
1.3
12.9
14.7
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
697
8,798
3,243
3,826
20.5
21.5
36.0
44.4
19.4
15.7
4.5
3.6
26.0
25.4
2.9
2.4
Lupin
Neutral
875
39,182
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
25.2
20.9
5.9
4.7
26.2
24.8
3.4
2.8
Ranbaxy*
Accumulate
341
384
14,419
11,400
12,060
10.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
19.5
15.2
3.1
2.7
17.0
19.1
1.2
1.1
Sun Pharma
Neutral
1,108
114,545
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
33.0
39.8
33.6
27.8
6.8
5.6
22.0
22.0
7.9
6.6
Power
GIPCL
Buy
NTPC
Accumulate
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68
78
1,022
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
4.9
4.6
0.6
0.5
12.3
12.0
0.8
0.5
142
163
117,292
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
10.6
9.8
1.3
1.2
12.8
12.7
2.2
2.1
Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Real Estate
DLF
Buy
178
236
31,759
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
31.3
26.5
1.1
1.1
3.7
4.1
5.9
5.0
MLIFE
Accumulate
444
476
1,813
888
1,002
30.6
30.6
38.8
43.4
11.4
10.2
1.3
1.2
11.2
11.4
2.6
2.3
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
315
125,798
85,489
94,229
31.9
31.9
10.2
14.6
30.8
21.5
2.2
2.0
7.2
9.4
2.1
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
154
51,027
25,640
28,459
26.9
27.2
4.0
4.9
38.4
31.1
3.2
2.9
8.4
9.4
2.4
2.1
Rcom
Neutral
146
30,217
22,751
24,628
30.9
31.3
3.4
5.3
42.7
27.8
0.9
0.9
2.1
3.1
2.9
2.6
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,416
1,659
3,009
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
19.9
17.1
4.0
3.4
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
189
237
1,888
3,885
4,472
5.4
7.2
11.0
19.7
17.3
9.6
2.3
2.0
13.5
20.3
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
500
613
633
631
797
14.5
13.7
42.6
51.1
11.7
9.8
2.8
2.2
26.5
25.3
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
280
459
72
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
10.3
7.3
1.6
1.4
15.7
18.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
57
68
875
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.7
5.1
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.3
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
252
437
328
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
9.0
5.8
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
310
345
714
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.6
8.4
1.7
1.5
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Buy
124
177
337
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
9.0
7.0
1.3
1.1
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.3
2,437
2,155
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.7
18.4
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
IFB Agro
Buy
150
198
135
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.1
3.8
0.7
0.6
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
136
234
157
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
7.2
5.1
0.4
0.4
5.4
7.1
0.5
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
178
199
2,962
1,220
1,476
13.3
13.6
5.5
9.0
32.4
19.7
3.7
3.3
12.1
17.7
2.8
2.2
MRF
Accumulate
12,852
14,416
5,451
11,799
12,587
14.1
7.2
7.1
1.5
1.3
23.5
19.2
0.6
0.5
Page Industries
Neutral
4,512
5,032
1,057
1,282
19.4
19.6
124.8
153.7
36.2
29.4
17.9
13.2
56.3
51.8
4.9
4.0
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
757
908
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
16.5
12.4
3.5
2.8
23.0
24.6
1.0
0.8
Buy
245
343
230
1,158
1,322
11.9
11.9
72.9
85.7
3.4
2.9
0.6
0.5
19.9
19.6
0.4
0.4
Buy
415
617
730
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
10.9
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.5
14.7
0.7
0.6
TAJ GVK
Buy
59
108
369
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.4
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Buy
268
371
413
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.2
3.9
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
(0.1)
TTK Healthcare
Buy
543
686
422
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
22.4
16.3
3.7
3.2
17.6
20.8
0.8
0.7
Tree House
Neutral
292
1,050
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
23.6
18.7
2.8
2.5
11.8
13.1
7.0
5.4
TVS Srichakra
Buy
United Spirits
Neutral
Vesuvius India*
Buy
177
230
136
1,591
1,720
6.1
6.4
24.5
38.3
7.2
4.6
0.8
0.7
10.9
15.9
0.3
0.3
2,671
38,815
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
63.4
39.5
4.5
4.0
9.1
10.7
3.5
3.0
365
439
741
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.2
10.0
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 15, 2013
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Market Outlook
July 16, 2013
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
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