WSJ Economic Survey June 2012

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

Bonds
June 2012 Dec 2012 June 2013 Dec 2013
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50

Paul Ashworth
Capital Economics
Asha Bangalore
The Northern Trust
Nariman Behravesh IHS Global Insight
1.68
Richard Berner/David Morgan
Greenlaw
Stanley
2.10
Ram Bhagavatula
Combinatorics Capital
1.80
Beth Ann Bovino
Standard and Poor's
2.00
Jay Brinkmann
Mortgage Bankers Association1.70
Michael Carey
Credit Agricole CIB
Joseph Carson
AllianceBernstein
1.75
Julia Coronado
BNP Paribas
1.75
Mike Cosgrove
Econoclast
1.80
Lou Crandall
Wrightson ICAP
1.60
J. Dewey Daane
Vanderbilt University
1.70
Douglas Duncan
Fannie Mae
1.70
Robert Dye
Comerica Bank
1.70
Maria Fiorini Ramirez/Joshua
MFR, Inc.
Shapiro
1.65
Ethan Harris
Bank of America Securities-Merrill
1.40Lynch
Maury Harris
UBS
1.50
Jan Hatzius
Goldman Sachs & Co.
1.60
Tracy Herrick
Avidbank
1.60
Stuart Hoffman
PNC Financial Services Group 1.65
Gene Huang
FedEx Corp.
1.80
William B. Hummer Wayne Hummer Investments LLC
1.50
Bruce Kasman
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
1.40
Joseph A. LaVorgna Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 2.00
Edward Leamer/DavidUCLA
Shulman
Anderson Forecast
1.80
Don Leavens/Tim GillNEMA Business Information Services
1.75
John Lonski
Moody's Investors Service
1.60
Dean Maki
Barclays Capital
David Malpass
Encima Global LLC
1.70
Aneta Markowska * Societe Generale
Jim Meil/Arun Raha Eaton Corp.
1.80
Mark Nielson, Ph. D. MacroEcon Global Advisors 1.80
Michael P. Niemira International Council of Shopping
1.70
Centers
Jim O'Sullivan
Jim O'Sullivan
1.70
Nicholas S. Perna
Perna Associates
1.75
Joel Prakken/Chris Varvares
Macroeconomic Advisers
1.77
David Resler
Nomura Securities International1.75
Inc.
John Ryding/Conrad DeQuadros
RDQ Economics
1.75
Ian Shepherdson
High Frequency Economics 1.50
John Silvia
Wells Fargo & Co.
1.65
Allen Sinai
Decision Economics Inc.
1.70
James F. Smith
Parsec Financial Management 1.65
Sean M. Snaith
University of Central Florida 1.65
Sung Won Sohn
California State University
1.63
Neal Soss
Credit Suisse
1.65
Stephen Stanley
Pierpont Securities
1.65
Susan M. Sterne
Economic Analysis
1.70
Diane Swonk
Mesirow Financial
1.70
Bart van Ark
The Conference Board
1.75

1.75
2.25
3.00
2.20
2.20

2.17
2.10
4.00
2.55
2.50

2.76
2.25
4.80
2.80
2.70

2.50
1.75
2.10
2.20
1.70
1.80
2.00
1.65
1.90
2.10
2.00
1.80
2.25
2.40
1.80
2.25
2.50
2.20
2.00
1.90
2.00
2.50

3.00
2.00
2.50
2.40
2.00
1.90
2.25
1.75

3.50
2.25
2.80
2.80
2.00
2.00
2.40
2.25

2.40
2.20
2.10
2.56
2.90
2.10
2.25
3.00
2.50
2.25
2.15
2.00
4.00

2.70
2.50
2.60
2.90
3.10
2.40
2.50
3.50
3.00
2.70
2.30

1.80
2.25
2.20
2.40
2.25
2.39
2.00
2.80
2.00
1.80
2.05
3.88
1.72
1.75
2.10
2.50
1.80
2.10
2.00

2.00
2.40
2.30
2.70
2.94
3.11
2.25
3.50
2.50
2.00
2.25
4.23
1.87
1.85

2.20
2.60
2.50
3.00
3.23
3.57
2.35
4.00
3.00
2.20
2.52
4.15
2.61
2.00

4.40
2.00
2.40
2.25

5.20
2.20
2.60
3.00

4.30

51 Brian S. Wesbury/ Robert

First Stein
Trust Advisors, L.P.
1.75
2.25
52 William T. Wilson
Skolkovo Institute for Emerging1.70
Market Studies
1.70
53 Lawrence Yun
National Association of Realtors1.80
2.00

3.25
2.20
2.40

3.50
2.40
2.80

JUNE SURVEY AVERAGE

1.70

2.12

2.50

2.83

May
April
March
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June

2.15
2.28
2.24
2.25
2.24
2.38
2.46
2.53
2.82
3.25
3.89
4.03

2.47
2.55
2.55
2.62
2.56
2.75
2.79
2.90
3.17
3.60
4.24
4.33

2.83
2.88
2.89
2.98
2.89
3.03
3.06

3.10
3.19
3.17
3.28
3.21
3.35
3.36

* no forecasts submitted for this month's survey.

Economists are listed in alphabetical order; Averages are for economists polled at time of survey.
Copyright 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

June 2014 Dec 2014

2.00
2.50
2.96

3.55

5.20
2.90
3.00

5.50
3.60
3.20

4.00
2.50
3.00
3.40
2.20
2.20
2.75

4.50
2.50
3.20
3.70
2.50
2.30
3.50

3.80

4.00

3.40
2.60
2.75
4.00
3.60
3.00
2.50

4.10
2.90
3.00
4.00
4.10
3.50
2.70

4.50

4.70

2.40
2.80
3.00
3.10
3.75

2.50
3.20
3.00
3.20
4.15

2.50

2.75

3.50

4.00

2.92
4.22
2.80
2.50

3.05
4.34
3.30
3.00

5.75
2.00
2.80
3.30

5.90
2.00
3.20
3.90

Fed Funds
June 2012
0.25
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.25
0.12
0.00
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.25
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.13

Dec 2012
0.25
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.25
0.12
0.00
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.25
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.13

June 2013
0.25
0.12
0.13
0.15
1.00
0.12
0.00
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.25
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.13

Dec 2013
0.25
0.50
0.13
0.15
2.50
0.12
0.00
0.13
0.50
0.13
0.13
0.25
0.13
0.20
0.15
0.13

0.13
0.10
0.10
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13

0.13
0.10
0.10
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13

0.13
0.10
0.25
0.13
0.25
0.20
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.50

0.75
0.10
1.00
0.13
0.25
0.30
0.13
0.50
0.10
0.00
0.13
0.13
1.50

0.00
0.00
0.10
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.15
0.00
0.10

0.00
0.25
0.20
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.15
0.00
0.10

0.00
0.50
0.30
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
1.00
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.50
0.16
0.00
0.10

0.00
1.00
1.00
0.13
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.50
0.50
0.13
0.00
2.00
0.15
0.16
0.13
2.50
0.18
0.00
0.50

June 2014
0.25
2.25
0.13
0.15
3.75
0.12
0.50
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.50
0.13
0.20
0.15

Dec 2014
0.25
4.25
0.75
4.25
0.25
1.00
2.00
0.13
0.13
1.00
1.00
0.40
0.15

0.10
1.50

0.10
2.00

0.50
0.30
0.13
1.50
0.40
0.00
0.13

0.75
0.70
0.50
3.00
1.10
1.25
0.50

3.00

3.50

0.30
1.25
1.50
0.75
0.50

0.70
1.50
1.75
1.50
1.50

0.13

0.13

1.00

1.50

0.25
3.00
0.15
0.50

0.50
3.00
0.15
0.75

4.25
0.20
0.00
2.00

5.25
0.20
1.00
2.75

time of survey.

4.00
2.60
2.90

4.50
2.60
3.10

0.13
0.25
0.10

0.13
0.25
0.10

0.13
0.25
0.10

0.50
1.00
0.10

1.25
1.75
0.50

2.00
2.25
1.00

3.16

3.47

0.12

0.13

0.19

0.41

0.82

1.38

3.40
3.50
3.53
3.54
3.55
3.71
3.67

3.67
3.81
3.83
3.80
3.82
3.97
3.89

0.13
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.21
0.57
0.71

0.14
0.15
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.20
0.21
0.40
1.27
1.51

0.21
0.22
0.24
0.29
0.26
0.32
0.30

0.48
0.46
0.48
0.52
0.57
0.64
0.64

1.00
0.96
0.99
0.96
1.22
1.30
1.30

1.53
1.48
1.54
1.44
1.76
1.79
1.91

GDP
Q2 2012
1.8
2.2
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.1
2.0
3.5
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.0
2.3
1.7
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.5
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.4
1.9
2.2
1.7
2.5
2.5
1.6
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.7
3.0
2.1
2.1
5.3
1.8
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.1
1.9
1.6

Q3 2012
2.0
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.0
1.7
2.0
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.0
2.5
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.5
1.3
2.3
2.0
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.7
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.0
3.0
1.4
2.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.3
2.1
3.0
3.0
1.4
2.7
4.3
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.7

Q4 2012
2.2
3.3
2.4
2.8
4.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
3.7
2.5
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.0
2.7
2.0
1.8
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.8
2.3
1.4
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.1
2.8
2.0
3.0
1.9
2.3
1.9
3.3
3.0
1.9
2.9
4.5
2.3
2.5
2.4
3.1
2.6
2.3
1.9

YR 2012
2.0
2.5
2.1
2.3
2.8

YR 2013
2.5

YR 2014
3.0

2.1
2.0
4.0

3.3

2.1
2.2
3.2
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.6

2.4
2.5
3.0
2.4
2.2
2.8
2.2
2.4
1.5
1.8
1.4
2.7
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.1
3.0

2.6

1.9
2.4
2.2
2.6
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.7
2.5
1.8
2.4
4.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.7

2.3
2.8
1.2
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.5
2.1
2.0
4.1
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.9
1.4
2.4
2.2

2.6
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.3

3.6

3.5
2.6
2.5
3.5
2.4
2.5
3.2

3.0
2.6
3.1
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.1
2.7
3.0

2.5
3.5
2.6
4.5
3.2
2.6
4.0
2.0
2.9
3.2

CPI
June 2012 Dec 2012 June 2013
1.8
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.6
1.2
1.2
2.3
2.3
1.6
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.5
1.7
2.3
1.6
2.2
1.8
2.5
2.1
1.3
2.3
1.3
2.1
2.2
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.3
1.8
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.7
2.2

2.3
1.7
2.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.0
1.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
3.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.5
2.2
1.7
1.5
1.9
2.0
2.5

2.1
2.1
3.0
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.8
2.0
2.0
1.7

2.2
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.2
1.8
2.2
1.7
1.6
2.5
1.7
2.2

1.9
3.2
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.6
2.4
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.6
2.0
3.0
1.8
2.0

1.6
3.5
2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.7
2.7
2.3
1.6
2.3
0.9
0.9
1.8
1.2
3.0
2.8
1.7
2.1

1.4
1.7
3.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.3
1.9
2.3
3.0

2.0
2.6
2.1

4.0
2.4
2.7

4.0
2.6
3.3

3.0
2.3
2.6

3.5
2.5
3.2

4.0
2.5
3.2

2.4
2.1
2.2

3.5
1.8
2.5

4.0
1.8
2.8

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.0

2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.1

2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.2

2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.0

2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7

3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3

2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4

2.2
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3

Dec 2013
1.8
2.9
1.9
1.6
3.2
2.3
2.1
3.0
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.0
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
3.4
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.7
2.6
1.7
1.6
2.1
2.8
3.0
2.0
3.6
3.0
2.4
1.9
2.1
1.5
3.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
0.8
1.7
1.5
1.3
3.4
2.2
1.9
2.2

June 2014 Dec 2014

2.0
2.0
3.4
3.4
2.6
2.3
3.0

2.8

2.0

2.2

3.0
2.1
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.0

3.5
2.1
2.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
1.9

3.6

4.8

2.4
2.3
1.7
2.8
2.0
2.0
2.1

2.4
2.4
1.8
3.0
1.9
2.0
2.1

3.0

3.0

2.2
3.8
3.1
2.5
2.0

2.1
4.0
3.2
2.6
2.1

1.8

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.0
1.1
2.4
1.7

2.0
0.8
2.3
1.6

3.7
2.7
2.1
2.1

3.8
2.5
2.2
1.9

Unemployment Rate
June 2012 Dec 2012 June 2013
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.1
7.9
7.6
8.2
7.9
7.9
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.0
7.6
6.8
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.0
7.8
8.1
7.9
7.5
8.2
8.1
7.7
8.2
8.1
7.9
8.2
8.1
7.9
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.1
8.0
7.8
8.2
8.0
7.8
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.6
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.0
7.4
7.0
8.2
7.9
7.8
8.2
8.1
7.9
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.1
7.8
7.5
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.1
7.9
7.8
8.2
8.1
7.8
8.2
7.8
7.5
8.2
7.8
7.5
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.1
7.9
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2

8.1
7.6
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.5
8.2
7.9
7.2
8.0
8.2
7.9
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.1

7.9
7.5
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.6
6.5
7.9
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.9
7.8
8.0

Dec 2013
7.4
7.0
7.8
8.2
6.1
7.7
7.5
7.7
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.4
8.1
7.3
8.0
6.8
7.5
7.6
7.9
7.9
7.2
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.2
7.2
7.8
7.2
8.4
7.6
7.5
7.7
7.7
7.5
6.5
7.9
7.3
6.0
7.9
7.8
7.2
6.8
7.9
7.6
7.9

June 2014
7.2
6.3
7.7
5.8
7.3
7.2
7.0
7.1
7.5
7.1
7.3
7.2
7.0

6.6
7.1
7.7
7.8
7.0
7.4
7.5
7.3
7.0
7.5
7.0
8.2
7.4
7.1
7.5
6.0
7.1
5.5
7.7
7.7
6.4
8.0
7.2
7.8

4.5
2.1
3.0

4.7
2.1
2.8

5.0
2.2
2.7

8.1
8.3
8.1

7.6
8.1
8.1

7.2
7.9
7.7

6.8
7.5
7.2

6.4
7.3
6.8

2.3

2.5

2.5

8.2

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.1

2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5

8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.9
8.7
8.4
8.2

7.9
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.2
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.4
8.1
7.9

7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.5

7.4
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.7
8.0
8.1
8.2

7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.8

Dec 2014
7.0
6.0
7.3
5.5
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.9
7.5
6.8
7.0
6.8
6.6

5.8
6.4
7.5
7.6
6.8
7.1
7.2
7.1
6.8
7.1
6.9
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.3
5.5
6.8
5.0
7.4
7.6
6.0
8.2
7.0
7.6

Housing Starts Crude oil

2012
On June 30, 2012
On Dec 31, 2012
0.80
0.75
0.76
82.00
85.00
0.73
0.85
85.00
95.00
0.72
0.75
84.00
87.00
0.78
85.00
0.72
85.00
85.00
0.73
86.00
94.00
0.72
85.00
92.00
0.75
87.00
90.00
0.70
85.00
80.00
0.74
85.00
95.00
0.73
84.00
90.00
0.71
0.71
0.80
0.75
122.50
0.60
82.00
90.00
0.74
85.00
88.00
0.73
0.74
92.70
94.50
0.72
85.00
95.00
0.80
0.76
0.73
83.00
84.00
0.73
80.00
88.00
0.73
0.90
85.00
100.00
0.76
0.73
0.71
0.70
0.72
0.76
0.75
0.70
0.85
0.74
0.72
0.84
0.76
0.75
0.69
0.79
0.71
0.75
0.72

88.00
73.34
85.00
90.00
80.00

90.00
68.50
95.00
100.00
86.00

85.00

83.00

90.00
98.00
87.45
80.25
82.00

90.00
104.00
64.32
81.50
78.00

85.00
84.00
80.00
85.00

85.00
92.00
85.00
85.00

Payrolls

FHFA 2012/2011

150,000
225,000
150,500
175,000
220,000

0.00

140,000
150,000
200,000
175,000
135,000
175,000
100,000
180,000
140,000
140,000

1.00
1.10
3.00
0.00
-1.00
2.00
0.00
-1.20
2.30

176,000
138,000
100,000
170,000
200,000
200,000
150,000
180,000
175,000
140,000
145,000
160,000
230,000
144,000
134,000
140,000
175,000
147,000
127,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
140,000
141,000
308,000
132,500
175,000
175,000
190,000
97,000
115,000
175,000

0.80
2.00

3.00
2.00
1.00
-3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
-1.50
0.50
2.20
1.00
0.80
1.80
0.00
1.50
2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.30
3.80
-1.65
-0.50
2.00
2.20
0.20
-2.00

6.0
7.1
6.5

0.75

90.00
101.00
100.00

175,000
120,000
170,000

3.00

0.78

87.50
99.00
88.00

6.9

0.75

85.37

89.81

164,000

0.85

6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.5

0.75
0.74
0.76
0.74
0.73
0.72
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.78
0.78
0.81

100.08
103.92
105.47
96.89
98.54
97.09
90.15
88.28
89.98
88.10
97.28

100.46
104.06
103.96
97.17
99.41
98.26
91.60
91.08
92.82
89.42
98.69

185,704
191,229
196,478
172,468
154,806
134,954
127,539
124,039
124,602
147,663
172,751
186,972

0.53
-0.12
0.12
0.41
0.12
0.56
0.44
0.47
0.70
1.52
1.75
1.75

3.00

WSJ ECONOMIC FORECASTING SURVEY

June 2012
Q&A

Recession Risk
Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months.
Average 19%

Selection of comments:
The fate of the US economy is increasingly tied to that of Europe and emerging markets.
We've kicked can down the road only to compound problems in US and Europe.
U.S. Economy in low altitude orbit but threatened by uncontrolled meteors of Euro Crises and "Fiscal Cliff" that migh

Subtrend Risk
Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that there will be at least one quarter of subtrend economic gr
Average 76%
Selection of comments:
This result would surprise no one, not even me.
We tend to skip a beat more often than we would like.
We seem to be merely bouncing around trend growth.

Upside vs. Downside

Is the risk to your 2012 growth forecast more to the upside or downside?
Downside 91%
Upside 9%
Selection of comments:
More downside risk than I can remember for a single year.
It's easier to identify problems than opportunities.
Oops, we did it again.

QE3
Do you expect the Fed to start another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012?
No 63%
Yes 37%
Should the Fed start another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012?
No 77%
Yes 23%

Selection of comments:
Fed is concerned about unemployment.
What would it achieve?
Economy will likely teeter too close to the edge to prevent.
Real GDP growth is too strong to allow this.

Fed meeting
Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of the following outcomes at the June FOMC meeting: (avera
Extension of "Operation Twist"
44%
No additional action
43%
New large-scale bond purchases
24%
Altering language on low-rate commitment 22%
Some other action
18%
Selection of comments:
If they are not ready to pull the trigger they will likely send a strong signal that more easing will be forthcoming.
This Fed has been as experimental with policy, but imagination may be running thin.
Fed will wait to see how Europe affects U.S. outlook and financial markets.

Euro Zone Breakup

Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that Greece will exit the euro zone within the next two years.
Average 59%

Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that a member other than Greece will exit the euro zone withi
Average 32%
Selection of comments:
The euro is a dead man walking in Greece.
If it doesn't happen soon, it won't happen at all.
Without fiscal equivalent of ECB, the euro will eventually die.
Need to isolate Greece and be done with it.

ECB Response
Is the European Central Bank responding aggressively enough to Europe's debt crisis?
Yes
No

59%
41%

Selection of comments:
Monetary policy cannot fix sovereign debt problems.
Should have cut in June, will cut rates in Q3.
They have no power to recapitalize banks.

d "Fiscal Cliff" that might knock it out of orbit.

f subtrend economic growth in the next 12 months.

FOMC meeting: (average response)

ill be forthcoming.

in the next two years.

exit the euro zone within the next two years.